GMF - The German Marshall Fund of the United States - Strengthening Transatlantic Cooperation

This essay was originally published in the National Journal Daily

Immigration is clearly not the third rail of Republican presidential politics. The topic has come up again and again in GOP presidential debates, with most candidates falling over themselves to demonstrate who can be toughest on this issue. Any sign of being “soft” on immigrants—be it Texas Gov. Rick Perry’s support for educating the children of unauthorized immigrants or Newt Gingrich’s proposal for a “humane” approach to immigration—has been attacked by fellow White House aspirants.

The candidates keep returning to this issue because it resonates with voters—especially GOP voters. A new Transatlantic Trends Immigration poll released on Thursday confirms that Americans generally fear both legal and illegal immigrants. But Republicans are the most concerned. They are also more likely than the public at large to support local crackdowns on undocumented immigrants. And they strongly oppose any initiative that smacks of amnesty for those who have entered the country illegally.

The survey, by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, also suggests that the GOP nominee may come to regret tough-on-immigration rhetoric. Key voting blocs that a Republican candidate will need in order to win the White House next November—independents, young people, and women—are less fearful of immigrants, less supportive of local enforcement of immigration law, and more supportive of a pathway for illegal immigrants to earn their citizenship than are Republican voters in general.

So don’t be surprised if the nominee soft-pedals immigration in the general-election campaign, although the GOP base is unlikely to forget.

Overall, immigration is not popular: A plurality of respondents (47 percent of the general public and 56 percent of Republicans) say that there are “too many immigrants”, according to the poll. And 53 percent complain that immigration is more of a problem than an opportunity for the country; the figure rises to 73 percent among Republicans—which helps explain why the issue keeps coming up in the GOP presidential debates.

It’s a problem, say those surveyed, because immigrants—both legal and illegal—take jobs away from native-born Americans (57 percent of those surveyed agree with that statement, including 68 percent of Republicans) and bring down wages (53 percent overall, 61 percent of Republicans). Most important, the majority sees immigrants as a burden on social services (63 percent agree, 81 percent of Republicans).

GOP presidential candidates’ disconnect from the public at large, while playing to their base, is evident around the issue of whether enforcement of immigration laws should be a state and local responsibility or a federal one. Both Arizona and Alabama have passed laws requiring local officials to crack down on illegal immigrants.

Republican hopefuls support such efforts. “There is something truly absurd about a federal government that refuses to control the border,” Newt Gingrich told an audience in Phoenix in October. And Rick Perry, as governor of Texas, has joined Arizona in defending its statute in court. Why would they do this? Because 51 percent of Republicans support local enforcement, according o the poll.

But such stances could prove shortsighted. Only 41 percent overall say they think immigration enforcement should be a state or local responsibility. And just 41 percent of independents, 40 percent of women, and 35 percent of those under age 35 want the state police and local sheriffs acting as immigration agents.

There is a similar disconnect around immigration reform. The Dream Act, a proposal that has existed in various forms for years, would allow unauthorized immigrants to earn citizenship through military service or college study. Perry opposes it, claiming the Dream Act gives illegal immigrants amnesty for breaking the law. And Mitt Romney complained in a November debate that “to say that people who have come here illegally … [are now] all going to get to stay and become permanent residents of the United States, that will only encourage more people to do the same thing.”

This hard-line stance may be even more of a miscalculation. More than half of Republicans (55 percent) believe illegal immigrants brought to the United States as children should be allowed to gain legal status by joining the military or by going to college. More important for the general election, 66 percent of women hold such views, as do 65 percent of independents and an overwhelming 82 percent of people younger than 35.

There is no doubt that immigration is a hot-button issue in the GOP primaries. But the presidential contenders need to carefully weigh its relative political salience. Only 15 percent of the public surveyed believe immigration is the most important issue facing America, compared with 61 percent who cite the economy. In the end, it’s still the economy, stupid!