GMF - The German Marshall Fund of the United States - Strengthening Transatlantic Cooperation

It is sometimes said that India’s rise has occurred in spite of the country’s messy democracy. Bitterly fought elections, political gridlock and a turbulent civil society have all been seen as handicaps that India must overcome on its march to global power. By contrast, authoritarian China’s capacity to implement a national vision of development without the give-and-take of an open society has been a formidable strategic asset. One-party rule has enabled China to rise farther and faster than India and remain ahead in the pursuit of wealth and influence.

This narrative is compelling; it may even explain the relative current positions of India and China. But as a predictor of the future, it contains a major oversight. Regime type shapes the course of power transitions and not in a way favorable to China. Mistrust invariably accompanies an autocracy’s rise. China is ascending into a world that is frightened of its intentions and wary of its leadership. Because democratic government functions as a source of reassurance as a new power rises, India encounters few barriers to its ascent. Established powers trust India’s ambitions and expect it to take on a constructive leadership role. However, India will not automatically obtain the influence within its grasp. To become a co-equal partner with the United States and Europe in the management of world affairs, India must first cast off old thinking about its place in the global order.

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