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On April 21, the German Marshall Fund of the United States and Ecologic Institute co-hosted a roundtable discussion on the governance of the Arctic. The Arctic region is experiencing the most pronounced impacts of climate change and is expected to become ice-free for part of the year within decades, posing a host of geopolitical and environmental challenges.

Speakers at the event included Ambassador David Balton, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for Oceans and Fisheries at the U.S. State Department; Aud Kolberg, Deputy Chief of Mission at the Norwegian Embassy to the United States; Caitlyn Antrim, Executive Director of the Rule of Law Committee for the Oceans; Paul Berkman, Head of the Arctic Ocean Geopolitics Programme at the Scott Polar Research Institute, University of Cambridge; Ambassador Kenneth Yalowitz, Director of the John Sloan Dickey Center for International Understanding at Dartmouth College; and John K. Glenn, GMF Director of Foreign Policy. Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, GMF Senior Director for Policy Programs, moderated. The seminar was one of a series of events held to mark the opening of Ecologic Institute's new office in Washington, DC. Full audio of the presentations from the event are available for download below:

David Balton and Aud Kolberg deliver opening remarks
Balton and Kolberg question & answer session

Panel two - remarks
Panel two - question & answer session

Aaron Best's Powerpoint presentation is avaiable for download by clicking here.

According to discussion participants, the Arctic is warming at a faster rate than anywhere else in the world. By 2013, the entire Arctic could be free of ice in summer. This is likely to lead to coastal erosion, increased commercial shipping, fishing, and tourism. It may also feature increased competition for the exploitation of its potentially rich reserves of fossil fuels. Fears of new rivalries between northern nations over the region's resources were highlighted by Russia's planting of its flag in the North Pole's ocean floor in 2007. Other northern nations find themselves under increasing pressure to lay claim to the seabed.

In 2009, one of the last acts of the outgoing Bush Administration was the promulgation of a comprehensive statement outlining U.S. interests and policy in the Arctic. The statement set out the U.S. interests as an "Arctic nation" with regard to national and homeland security, international governance, environmental conservation, and scientific cooperation. Ambassador Balton described this policy as arising out of a long and consultative process, and not as a parting shot of the Bush Administration; nevertheless, it is unclear whether the Obama Administration will take the Arctic Policy Statement into account in developing its Arctic strategy. Ambassador Balton also anticipated the ratification by the United States of the UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, to which all other Arctic nations are a party.

There are opposing views about the adequacy of existing governance structures around Arctic issues. Members of the Arctic Council, which is the only diplomatic forum working exclusively with Arctic-related issues and is composed of the eight states that border the Arctic Ocean, argue that existing governing institutions should be strengthened but oppose the creation of entirely new institutions. Other experts hold that some form of international convention should be created to protect the Arctic environment or govern the exploitation of its resources to take into account the interests of all countries, not just those of the eight members of the Arctic Council, regarding shipping, fisheries, mineral exploitation and the marine environment. Ms Kolberg reminded participants that the Arctic has been inhabited for thousands of years and Arctic nations like Norway will not be enthusiastic about a new, legally binding international regime along the lines of the Antarctic Treaty. Nevertheless, some speakers supported the idea of a permanent Secretariat for the Arctic Council and the development of limited legally binding provisions around environmental protocols, commitments to environmental impact assessments, and the establishment of a restrictive, conservation-based fishing regime.

One major gap in the governance of the Arctic is security, which is explicitly outside the competence of the Arctic Council. Two speakers (Paul Berkman and Caitlyn Antrim) proposed that the limited area of water above 88 degrees latitude north -- a circle with a 120-nautical-mile radius -- be designated as a marine park for peaceful research. Other speakers thought that the already high level of military activity in the Arctic means that there is not going to be support from the key nations for such a "zone of peace" in the Arctic.

The possibility of international tensions arising over competing claims to the Arctic for navigation or hydrocarbon exploitation have dissipated somewhat due to the global economic crisis, which has reduced the demand for both. According to Ambassador Yalowitz, this provides a breathing space for countries to make agreements over the use of the Arctic within existing institutions.

Russia will remain a strong presence in the Arctic commercially and militarily. It views Arctic hydrocarbons as vital strategic economic interests. Unlike the other main Arctic nations, as Glenn pointed out, Russia views its interests in the region as a zero-sum game of competition with other nations. It remains an open question whether the economic crisis will make Russia more confrontational or cooperative in the region.