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GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
Belarus: No more Maneuvering between the EU and Russia
June 13, 2011 / Joerg Forbrig
The December 19, 2010 presidential elections in Belarus have, more than any other recent event, put the complicated position of the country between the EU and Russia in the spotlight. The poll hardly differed, in process and result, from earlier elections in 2001 and 2006; it was rated non-democratic by the OSCE; and it merely served as a ritual for extending Alexander Lukashenko’s authoritarian rule. Nonetheless, significant developments preceded and followed the elections that owed much to changing relations between Belarus and its neighbors to the East and West.
These hopeful developments were brutally aborted by the December 2010 elections. The unconvincing victory of Lukashenko at the polls, the brutal crackdown on tens of thousands of peaceful protesters, the arrest of hundreds, show trials against the democratic opposition, and repression against civil society and independent media – all demonstrated clearly that the Belarusian dictator was by no means willing to surrender his power to democratic processes.
The EU response to this turn for the worse was swift and unambiguous. Condemnations were followed by sanctions against the country’s leadership. Support for the democratic movement was boosted and increasingly, demands for economic sanctions have been voiced across Europe. The relationship between the EU and Belarus has now entered a new freeze.
This break with the West, however, deepens Belarus’ dependency on Russia. Moscow is fully aware of its enormously increased influence and seems intent now to push its own interests in Belarus, especially the country’s full incorporation in to the Russian sphere of influence and the take-over of strategic assets with Russian capital. This raises concerns that Belarusian sovereignty is in question once again.
The question emerges then, which vector will dominate Belarus’ development in the years to come. For a long time, Lukashenko successfully moved forth and back between East and West, playing Europe against Russia and effectively eliminating any demands from either of its larger neighbors. It seems, however, that with recent developments, such maneuvering is not an option any longer.
This analysis was published in German in “Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte, no. 24-26/2011, 14 June 2011“, available here (then add link http://www.bpb.de/files/T2Y8C4.pdf)
Photo by Chavez Candanga
