Biddle's assessment of the situation in Iraq was stark. While he believes that the troop surge can increase security in areas where military density is already high, it cannot reach most parts of the country; in essence, he said, its impact would be limited to Bagdad. He also explained that he believes American attempts to create a bargaining stage to be doomed, as none of the Iraqi fractions are seriously interested in negotiations at the moment. The different groups seem to unanimously expect U.S. troops to leave within the next years. 

Biddle put the chances of a U.S. success at no more than 10-20%; however, he added, the probable civil war stood only a 30-40% chance of becoming regionalized. But what, he asked provocatively, would Europeans do then? The Germans around the table responded that, "European boots on the ground," remained unlikely even in the context of such a scenario, but that its seriousness made finding a durable agreement with Iran all the more important, such as diplomatic normalization between the United States and Iran, with an American security guarantee for Iran and Iranian acceptance of Israel's right to exist. Biddle noted that Iran is currently in a win-win situation, because the U.S. is not able or ready to act militarily.