Following the expulsion of the EU and Polish ambassadors to Belarus, on March 5, 2012, an expert seminar took place in Warsaw to discuss the current crisis between the European Union and Belarus.

The discussion was co-hosted by Solidarity with Belarus Information Office and the German Marshall Fund’s Warsaw Office. The meeting was moderated by Yuliya Slutskaya, director of Solidarity with Belarus Information Office and Andrew A. Michta, director of the GMF Warsaw Office.

The following issues were discussed: potential next steps for Belarus and for the European Union; potential reactions from Russia within the context of Belarus-Russia relations and Russia-Europe relations, the impact of Russian election results on the situation, as well as the political and economic consequences.

Below is a short resume of the key issues that were raised.

• What can be expected from Belarus regarding the development of the diplomatic conflict?

Aleh Hułak and Aleh Bahucki both stated that sanctions may refrain from repressions if they are used as a threat, and not as reality. If sanctions were to become a reality, the Belarusian authorities may increase repressions regarding ‘Europe’s agents’ inside the country i.e. against civil society. According to Ales Alekhanovich, if the EU is ready for sanctions, Belarus will make steps toward liberalization. This is the only leverage which can be exerted on Belarus. If relations with the EU worsen, Lukashenko will become more and more dependent on Russia.

Anatol Pańkoǔski expressed an opinion that as soon as Minsk acknowledges that the conflict will not bring additional political or economical bonuses, it is possible that relations will start to warm. For example, Belarusian diplomats could come to Europe for consultations in search of resuming a dialogue.

• What sparked the current diplomatic crisis between Belarus and the EU?

Kamil Kłysiński believes that the reasons for Minsk’s actions lie in Belarus-Russia relations, that the EU in this conflict is merely an instrument, and not the goal. Lukashenko’s main task is to stay in power and keep hold on the economy.

• What is the essence of Belarus-Russia relations regarding the EU?

Kirył Koktyš believes that the logic of Russia’s relations with Belarus is limited to transit security. Under this, Russia has been implementing a roundabout strategy since 2006, a Nordstream gas pipe has been laid, and now the BTC2 is scheduled for construction.

Wojciech Konończuk thinks that within Belarus-Russia relations there are many Belarusian challenges. Russia remains Belarus’ main creditor and wants to receive payment for its subsidies, in particular, to act as an investor in the privatization process of Belarus’ main strategic business. Lukashenko is unlikely to agree to all conditions that Russia demands. For this reason, in the coming year, the conflict between Minsk and Moscow may further escalate.

• Is a Russia-EU dialogue about Belarus possible?

Kirył Koktyš thinks that the level of mutual trust and suspicion about Belarus is quite high, and that Russia would not be the first to initiate such a dialogue. On the other hand, proposals from Europe, namely at this moment, could be heard.

According to Artur Michalski, for many years the EU was a hostage to the idea that the EU should do everything to keep Belarus independent from Russia, otherwise Russia would aggressively seize the initiative. But Belarus’ independence does not only depend on the EU, but on Belarusians themselves.

• EU and economic sanctions: quo vadis?

Anna Maria Dyner spoke against the introduction of full economic sanctions against Belarus: from the point of view of a Common Economic Space, the introduction of full scale sanctions is impossible, for example, oil can be transited through Russia. In addition, Belarusian propaganda would use this manouver to an anti-EU campaign. In her opinion, freezing the assets of certain individuals is much more effective. In any case, the EU should be consolidated regarding its actions.

Conclusions and experts’ recommendations:

• In the short-term, it is wise for the EU to continue the policy of visa sanctions which will not lead to major changes within Belarus.
• The use of economic sanctions is risky – they could push Lukashenko toward Russia, depriving the country of its chance for democratic changes in the future.
• Purposefully we shall start drafting an alternative project for Belarus. A collective project to develop a new economic model for Belarus could become an EU-Russia project so as to lower the influence of Lukashenko’s wavering politics.