On February 15, The German Marshall Fund of the United States hosted a luncheon discussion with Paul Isbell, a Calouste Gulbenkian Fellow at the Center for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. With his new book, “Energy and the Atlantic: the Shifting Energy Landscapes of the Atlantic Basin” being released, Mr. Isbell discussed the economic implications, strategic opportunities, and future prospects of the fast-changing Atlantic energy landscape, north and south. The conversation was attended by 50 people, including GMF staff, government and embassy officials, as well as representatives from the public, private, and academic sectors.

Mr. Isbell’s presentation stemmed from his work on his book and was divided into five sections to give the audience a better understanding of the issue at hand. To begin, Mr. Isbell began by answering the question of why Energy and the Atlantic? He remarked that the center of gravity of the global energy is shifting to the Atlantic, even as the strategic concerns pivot to Asia and the Middle East. Many sectors have witnessed this shift, such as the oil, gas, biofuels, and renewable sectors, as well as new technological trends, such as shale and gas-to-liquid. The relevance of this topic was stressed when Mr. Isbell mentioned that by being able to map the Atlantic Basin, through the Atlantic Basin Energy System (ABES), it could be carried to other basins, such as the Indian Ocean Basin; thereby, giving rise to the remapping of the geopolitical space.

Mr. Isbell then focused on the preconditions necessary to give rise to ABES as well as the barriers. By utilizing graphs and charts, he stressed that much of the world’s energy demand and supply were originating from the Atlantic Basin, with the supply side growing much further with the addition of emerging nations. One key aspect, which he emphasized throughout the discussion, was the emergence of the Southern Atlantic as a major contributor in the Atlantic Basin as well as the potential that lies ahead. When talking about the barriers, Mr. Isbell described the impact of the financial instability in the Northern Atlantic, the price environment, the insufficient policy and regulatory environments around the basin (i.e. energy nationalism), and the lack of diplomatic structure in the Atlantic Basin.  

In his final remarks, Mr. Isbell focused on the policy implications. He discussed the potential need for two pivots, from the Atlantic as well as the Pacific Basin, when looking to any rebalancing out of the Middle East and the implications for the Middle East and Indian Ocean Basin. He emphasized the question of who will/should police those sea lanes and chokepoints. Should the United States continue to be the policeman or should it be another country, such as China or India. In bringing the presentation to a close, Mr. Isbell finished by discussing the governance aspect, including the possibility of an Atlantic Energy Charter that could set the standard to deepen the global governance.

In the question and answer session, the discussion delved further into the driving forces and barriers that are transforming this energy trend; the role of emerging Latin American and African countries; and the incentives for countries to cooperate. The program concluded with Mr. Isbell acknowledging that the shift has been towards the Southern Atlantic, and there is a need for a more diplomatic framework to come to fruition.