On February 2, 2012, the GMF Brussels office hosted Ambassador Dennis Ross in the latest edition of its series of lunchtime discussions bringing together key people in Brussels to openly discuss current issues of importance to both sides of the Atlantic.

The event, organized in cooperation with the Transatlantic Institute, was attended by high level policy makers from the EU institutions, journalists, and representatives from think tanks and the academic world. Sir Michael Leigh, GMF Senior Advisor to the GMF Brussels office, moderated the discussion.

The topic of the discussion was Iran’s nuclear ambitions, which recently moved into a new and potentially more dangerous phase, threatening to disrupt energy markets and complicate the outlook for stability from the Levant to Afghanistan. But is this situation as threatening as it looks? And if so, how should the transatlantic community respond to it? Can the international community live with a nuclear Iran?

Ambassador Dennis Ross, Counsellor and Ziegler Distinguished Fellow at the Washington Institute for Near East Policy addressed these questions, offering an insider’s look drawing on his recent experience leading Iran policy in the Obama Administration.

In his opening remarks, Ambassador Ross compared Iran’s current situation to that of 2009, when Iran was a country on the march in the region. It had a high degree of self-confidence, able to cope with pressures from outside. However, the Iranian regime has begun to lose its leverage in the region, and in fact has never found itself so isolated before.

According to Ambassador Ross, the possibility for a negotiated outcome is closer than ever. The signals are there, with Iran engaging itself to the Russian step-by-step approach and the IAEA’s recent visit to Tehran.

Discussion and participants’ remarks focused on the consequences for the international community and its efforts to resolve the crisis over Iran nuclear ambitions. Concerns were raised about the possibility of the talks failing, and what such a situation would mean for the U.S.-EU relationship in particular. Would a military option cause a split, resembling Iraq in 2003?

However, according to Ross this is not likely. The transatlantic partners have acted more and more in line in recent months, with the EU significantly strengthening its sanctions, launching an oil embargo and placing sanctions on Iran’s central bank. There is an understanding in Europe that the United States is not looking for war and if talks with Tehran fail, European countries would look at the conflict from a somewhat different context compared to Iraq. Still, it is clear that resolving the crisis with diplomatic means is in everyone’s interest.

To view images from the event, click here.