Publications Archive
Iran Policy After the NIE? Modest Findings, Revolutionary Effects January 08, 2007 / Ian Lesser
Findings from the recently released National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's program are not revolutionary - but the ensuing debate could be transforming for U.S. and transatlantic strategy toward Iran. The new estimate suggests that Tehran may well opt for a prolonged "near-nuclear" posture to secure greater regional weight and influence without triggering a sharp diplomatic or military response. The option of a military strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure now looks more remote. But longer term transatlantic strategy will need to emphasize containment and extended deterrence - alongside possible strategic dialogue with Iran.



