Lukashenka – What are the prospects for spring in Belarus?
June 09, 2011 / Joerg Forbrig
openDemocracy
Captivated by the upheavals facing Arab autocrats, few in the West have noticed the troubles of another dictator, this time on Europe's very doorstep -- Belarus' Alexander Lukashenka.
For nearly two decades, this former collective farm boss has ruled Belarus by three means:
* A pervasive security apparatus brutally quashes dissenters and instills fear throughout society.
* A Soviet-style economy, propped up by Russian subsidies and revenues from exports to Europe, provides stable, but low-level, welfare.
* And smart geopolitical manoeuvring plays European and Russian interests off each other, effectively eliminating pushes for change from both West and East. However, with internal friction building and external pressure growing, all three strategies have increasingly failed of late.
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