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Events
Andrew Light Speaker Tour in Europe May 14, 2013 / Berlin, Germany; Brussels, BelgiumGMF Senior Fellow Andrew Light participated in a speaking tour in Europe to discuss opportunities for transatlantic cooperation on climate and energy policy in the second Obama administration.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
Events
New Economic Analysis reveals possible Doha Round outcomes December 01, 2005 / Washington, DC
Less than two weeks from the start of the critical World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial in Hong Kong, the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) hosted an event to announce the results of the first simulation analysis of proposals by the United States and Europe currently on the table at the WTO and their impacts on global trade and development.
GMF commissioned Antoine Bouet and David Orden of the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) to run two scenarios — the most ambitious and least ambitious aspects of the trade liberalization proposals — to identify the impacts on global trade and who would benefit. The two scenarios were run using the MIRAGE general equilibrium model of the global economy.
To an audience of over 60 people, Mr. Bouet and Mr. Orden presented results which show that, if the best is made of current reform offers by the European Union and United States at the WTO, there could still be gains for both developed and developing countries.
The analysis found that the first, more ambitious scenario, which would take the world 66 percent of the way to complete free trade, resulted in the greatest gains for all:
- 103.7 billion a year of increased global income by 2019, mainly resulting from lower agricultural protection in wealthy countries.
- 4.1 percent expansion of overall world trade.
- Greater gains to developing countries from trade reform, proportional to their share of the global economy.
The second, less ambitious scenario — 26 percent of full global trade liberalization — resulted in:
- Global income gains of only $41.5 billion.
- Just a 2 percent expansion in world trade, half that of the more ambitious scenario.
- Very little real income gain for developing countries.
“We now can clearly see that, contrary to the drumbeat going into Hong Kong, there is still much to play for in the Doha Round,” said Susan Sechler, U.S. director of GMF’s Trade & Development program. “It is now important to raise, rather than lower, the level of ambition in the negotiations to make this a true development round benefiting all countries.”
For the More or Less Ambition? report, click here and for the full presentation, click here.
