On Friday March 30, 2012 GMF Brussels hosted a group of eight Afghan opinion makers consisting of media and civil society representatives, a Member of Parliament, and an advisor to the NATO Senior Civilian Representative in Afghanistan.

Approximately 15 representatives from the EU institutions and Brussels-based think tanks/NGOs attended the roundtable. The discussion was moderated by Ian Lesser, the Director of GMF’s Brussels office, and focused on the growing anxiety surrounding the 2014 withdrawal of international troops from Afghanistan.

Much of the progress that has been made during the war in Afghanistan remains fragile, including access to education and health care, the protection of women’s rights, and the security situation in general. There are concerns that an accelerated exit will jeopardize a comprehensive and responsible handover to the Afghan authorities, leaving many achievements at risk of being reversed and creating a power vacuum that will invite interference from foreign actors as well as creating political instability and competition within the country. The withdrawal is already having an impact: a lack of confidence in the international community’s commitment has meant that many Afghans have switched to “survival mode”, and are hedging their bets by engaging multiple factions in the political space. This will not only empower insurgency, but – over the longer term – will increase the chances of civil war.

 The current signals from the international community on their post-2014 commitment offer hope, but – despite the benefits of a continued presence - lack the conviction that would make them convincing. Afghanistan remains a major drug producer and trafficker. In a more secure environment, its vast natural resources would benefit the economies of both the country and region. Finally, the original threat that sparked the intervention in the country remains present, if not increased: Afghanistan is still home to extremists and would-be terrorists who seek to harm both Afghans and the international community. Insurgents have maintained traditional ties to Al Qaeda whilst also becoming more sophisticated in their activities.

An internal collapse of the country would not only have detrimental effects for the Afghan people, but for the region as a whole. The next two years are crucial in creating the kind of Afghanistan we hope to see in the future and the international community must not sway from its commitment. Given the internal and external risks posed by a rushed withdrawal, the discussants expressed the need for a responsible handover of authority and a continued international combat engagement post-2014.

 Hosted by NATO’s Public Diplomacy Division, the group was in Brussels to share their views and learn more about Europe’s perspective on Afghanistan. GMF Brussels organized a roundtable for the group to help facilitate interaction with representatives from the European institutions and Brussels-based think tanks.