On Monday, October 15th, the German Marshall Fund of the United States hosted a luncheon conversation on the “Southern Europe Predicament: What Future for Mediterranean Europe?”. Dr. Ettore Greco, Director of the Italian Institute of International Affairs (IAI), Rome; Dr. Thanos Dokos, Director-General of the Hellenic Foundation of European and Foreign Policy (ELIAMEP), Athens; and Dr. Bruce Stokes, Director of Pew Global Economic Attitudes, Pew Research Center, Washington facilitated the conversation. Dr. Emiliano Alessandri, Senior Transatlantic Fellow at the German Marshall Fund, Washington, moderated the discussion. The event was attended by diplomats, government officials, academics, and representatives of various organizations. 

Discussion showed that the worst of the Eurocrisis may be over, but that Europe – particularly Southern Europe – is hardly out of the woods. The crisis affecting Mediterranean countries from Portugal to Greece is not just economic, but social and political. Many of Mediterranean Europe’s weaknesses – from low competitiveness to high unemployment – are structural and are likely to remain even if austerity grows roots and EU solidarity increases. The reconfiguration of political systems in Italy and Greece remains unclear, as does the impact of rising populist forces on Southern Europe’s domestic and foreign policies.

Dr. Thanos Dokos mentioned that the people of Greece, despite widespread disaffection, resentment, and cynicism, are creating an impetus that could potentially result in the formation of a new, center-leaning political party. Dr. Bruce Stokes brought up the issue that recent polls have shown that in Italy, Greece, and Spain, a majority of citizens think that European monetary integration is not good for their countries, and a sizeable minority of Germans is opposed to continuing German membership in the Eurozone. However, the German Marshall Fund Transatlantic Trends Survey has recently found overall support of the European Union, although in Southern European countries views of Brussels have turned more negative than in the past. As the conversation turned to possible exits and/or ‘bailouts’ for Greece and Spain, Dr. Ettore Greco described a potential domino effect extending to Italy, that could undermine the future of the European Union.

The discussion was lively and covered many topics, as well as offering possible solutions to the predicament. The question arose concerning revolts in the region and the Middle East and the adequacy of Europe’s response to these uprisings. The need for increased consultation about foreign political matters at the European and transatlantic levels was contended, as was an urge for stronger coordination among Southern European countries.