From July 26-28, NPR FM Berlin aired an hour-long audio program of an event held at the German Marshall Fund. Ruprecht Polenz, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the German Bundestag, and Ray Takeyh of the Council on Foreign Relations discussed on the role of Europe in addressing Iran, particularly Germany's role in dealing with Iran as based in the EU3+3 proposal.

More information on NPR Worldwide is available at npr.org/worldwide.

The entire audio program is available for download here. This and further GMF Audio is located on the Multimedia page.

On July 8, GMF hosted Ruprecht Polenz, Chairman of the Foreign Affairs Committee in the German Bundestag, and Ray Takeyh, Senior Fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, for a discussion on the role of Europe in addressing Iran. Polenz described Germany's role in dealing with Iran as based in the EU3+3 proposal which aims to stop uranium enrichment while recognizing Iran's legitimate right to a peaceful nuclear program. This would also involve linked issues such as cooperation on Iraq, Afghanistan, and trade. The German government is optimistic that Javier Solana's mission to Iran will produce results.

Although Iran's response to the proposal has been inconsistent, recently parliamentary speaker Ali Larijani has expressed renewed confidence in negotiations under the framework of the EU3 proposal. This is especially true since the US has softened its position by signing on to the EU3 proposal as well. Nonetheless, Iran still rules out suspending enrichment as a pre-condition for negotiations.

In this pre-negotiation phase, it is critical to recognize Iran's NPT rights to a peaceful civilian nuclear program and to emphasize transparency over the outright suspension of enrichment. The focus should also be directed towards changing Iran's behavior instead of its leadership. Attention should be paid to US-Iranian relations in the context of the linked regional security problems such as Iraq, Afghanistan, Syria-Lebanon, and Israel. Iran views these conflicts as opportunities to distract and delay concerted international attention on its nuclear program.

Mr. Polenz stressed the importance of regional security problems in dealing with Iran's nuclear program. An Israeli-Syrian deal on the Golan Heights, for instance, would undercut Hezbollah and Hamas, reducing the regional influence of Iran. He counter-posed this approach to long-term containment strategies based around an anti-Iranian coalition of Sunni Muslim states which he believes will be dangerous and ineffective. Instead, the EU3+3 should adopt an inclusive regional approach.

Mr. Takeyh argued that Iran's immediate priority is to delay more serious discussions for six months. In that time they will have installed newer centrifuges and will be able to develop a fresh relationship with the new US administration.  During this period it will be critical for them to avoid provoking the United States or Israel into a military strike.

He also argued that the first phase of the EU3 proposal, called ‘double timeout', may be attractive to Iran because it calls only for the suspension of the installation of new centrifuges, not actual enrichment, in exchange for no new sanctions. This six week pre-negotiation phase could then be extended indefinitely and the appearance of Iranian cooperation would protect it against harsher measures. Mr. Takeyh concluded that it is unlikely that Solana will achieve any kind of diplomatic breakthrough. Instead, Iranian officials will view his visit as an opportunity to delay more substantial discussions while continuing to improve their existing nuclear program.

Both speakers agreed that the suspension of enrichment as a pre-condition to negotiations is unrealistic. They also agreed that despite the opaque decision-making structures in the Iranian government that there was no significant internal division over the existence of Iran's nuclear program. However, there are some internal tensions over how to respond to proposals such as the EU3's.

Mr. Polenz emphatically cautioned against military strikes by the US or Israel. He argued that they would be unsuccessful in the short-term since they could not guarantee the destruction of the Iranian nuclear program. Further, they would be unsuccessful in the long-term since it would produce a ‘rally around the flag' effect and Iran would redouble its efforts in greater secrecy. Similarly, Mr. Polenz questioned the wisdom of stronger sanctions. Rather than isolating Iran, these would simply drive it towards deeper economic ties with Russia and China.

Mr. Takeyh pointed out the technical, as well as political, dimension to dealing with Iran's nuclear program. There may be ways of monitoring and limiting Iran's use of nuclear technology which meet its NPT rights to civilian nuclear power but also satisfy the security concerns of neighbors such as Israel. It is a technical challenge for physicists to develop these devices and systems as well as a political challenge to see them implemented through international agreements.

The discussion was attended by approximately 60 people from the non-profit and government sectors, in addition to members of the media.