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On Defense, France Bites the Bullet, But Avoids Strategic Insolvency May 7, 2013
Iceland’s Recovery Saga Presents Opportunities for Brussels, Washington—and Beijing May 6, 2013
Which Way Forward for Europe’s Hybrid Regimes? May 2, 2013
The Arab Revolts and the Liberal Order May 2, 2013
Events
GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
To Sustain a U.S.-Led Liberal Order, Incorporate the Global Swing States
May 28, 2012 / Daniel M. Kliman
Global Trends 2030
This essay is part of a series of analysis that focus on key issues from the U.S. National Intelligence Council's Global Trends 2030 publication. To view all of the analysis, visit gt2030.com
The international order forged after the Second World War has advanced economic prosperity, kept the peace among the great powers, and promoted democracy and human rights. The order is imperfect and today unrepresentative – it accords disproportionate weight in global governance to Western nations. But the “rise of the rest” will not inevitably lead to the order’s downfall.
Unlike Nazi Germany or the Soviet Union, no ascendant nation today is ideologically committed to building a new order that will displace the old. The challenge posed by the “rise of the rest” is less direct: selective undermining by some and free riding by many. This, coupled with the West’s financial difficulties, will render the existing order increasingly brittle.
But the United States is not simply a passive observer of this process; it can take actions that will rejuvenate the international system. Aside from China, the world’s leading rising powers – Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey – are all democracies. These four have yet to fully embrace the existing order, reject it, or offer a detailed alternative. All bring considerable capability and legitimacy to any international endeavor.
If the United States can successfully enlarge the order’s current circle of supporters beyond its longtime democratic allies in Europe and Asia to include these “global swing states,” today’s power shift will not culminate in the end of the Western world. Rather, the United States can realize an adapted and renewed international system that enshrines the principles and practices that have enabled the current order to benefit the West and also the rising rest.
