Events
Transatlantic 2020: A Tale of Four Futures
October 17, 2011 / Brussels
“[The transatlantic relationship] is important to both sides, but we take it for granted, and we take it for granted at our own peril”- Dan Hamilton

On Monday, 17 October, the German Marshall Fund’s Brussels office hosted the launch of Transatlantic 2020: A Tale of Four Futures, by Dan Hamilton and Kurt Volker. The book represents the end result of a transatlantic foresight project conducted by the Center for Transatlantic Relations at Johns Hopkins University, the Finnish Ministry for Foreign Affairs, the Heinrich-Boell Stiftung, the Bureau of European Policy Advisers of the European Commission, and the Transatlantic Academy, a project of the German Marshall Fund. The book presents four fictional accounts of the transatlantic relationship in the year 2020. Each account examines political and economic trends evident today, and explores how they might evolve to alter the transatlantic relationship and ultimately political relationships all across the globe. The event featured a presentation by Dan Hamilton (SAIS Center, Johns Hopkins University), and a panel discussion with Pierre Vimont (Secretary General, European External Action Service) and Marietje Schaake (Member of European Parliament). Following opening remarks by Ian Lesser (Director, GMF Brussels Office), Hamilton provided the audience with a brief summary of the project and its goals. From the complete degradation of the Euro, to an isolationist United States, to unprecedented digitally-enabled global cooperation, the book investigates several profoundly different possible courses for the transatlantic partnership. The stories, Hamilton explained, were meant to “evoke imagination and provoke discussion”. Following these comments, Marietje Schaake began the panel debate with her concern that Europe is not investing enough in innovation and technology. In today’s rapidly evolving and increasingly technology-based economies, states should, according to Ms. Schaake, be more concerned with sectors like intellectual property law, and cybersecurity; areas that, unregulated, have the potential to cripple states and undermine cross-border cooperation.

Schaake also emphasized the need to invest in cross-cultural exchange between young Europeans and young Americans, referencing the shift in young Americans’ attention away from Europe and toward Asia, a trend that was also revealed in
GMF’s 2011 Transatlantic Trends report. Pierre Vimont emphasized the benefits of actively investing in the transatlantic partnership today. Reflecting on Europe’s future as a global player, Vimont argued that European leaders need to strike a solid balance between self-confidence and self-degradation. Europe needs strong, forward-thinking leaders who know Europe’s strengths but are also acutely aware that the European and American models of governance are no longer the only models out there. The event closed with a question and answer session that provoked a lively discussion. From which of the BRICs will sustain its growth, to whether the United States will increasingly turn its attention inward, the panelists discussed a wide range of challenges that may face the transatlantic relationship in the future.