GMF - The German Marshall Fund of the United States - Strengthening Transatlantic Cooperation

The devastation wrought by the Great Tohoku Earthquake has reinforced perceptions inside and outside Japan of the country’s seemingly irreversible slide from economic superpower to sick man of Asia. Yet it would be premature to count Japan out as a factor in international politics.

 

Three futures appear possible for Japan. The first is an inward turn as the country’s long slump continues and accelerates. The present contains indications of this future. For example, the number of Japanese students studying abroad has fallen, particularly in the United States. Further cuts in Japan’s foreign aid budget, in part triggered by the cost of rebuilding after March 11 also suggest a neo-isolationist trajectory, as does the country’s absorption in domestic politics that remain in a permanent state of flux. To be sure, in a globalized world, Japan won’t revert to the ‘closed country’ policy it maintained for hundreds of years under the Tokugawa Shoguns, but Japan could substantially reduce its international presence.

 

Another potential future is Japan’s retrenchment into a middle power that while less dynamic, remains globally engaged. The present contains indicators of this trajectory as well. Japan has moved to strengthen its alliance with the United States in areas like missile defense and maritime security. The scale and effectiveness of bilateral relief efforts after the Great Tohoku Earthquake have only reinforced Japan’s already unquestioned commitment to sustaining this alliance. Moreover, in recent years, Japan has upgraded security and economic ties with countries along the Indo-Pacific rim. It has established strategic partnerships with Australia and India, and inked economic partnership agreements with them as well as seven members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations. Closer to home, Japan has improved strategic coordination with South Korea. Economically, Japanese firms continue to operate worldwide and remain formidable despite a more competitive environment.

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Image by Colin Dunn