The impending end of Vladimir Putin's presidency provides a timely opportunity to take a fresh look at Russia's relationship with the West in general and with NATO in particular. Both relationships have suffered severe strains in the past year over a range of issues including the still unresolved plan to install a U.S. anti-missile defense system in Poland and the Czech Republic, as well as Russia's decision to suspend participation in the Treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE). These specific points of discord take place against a backdrop of ongoing tension as NATO continues to expand eastward and a resurgent Russia, emboldened by its regional preeminence as an energy supplier, adopts a more robust stance in defense of its national ambitions.
The NATO-Russia relationship has two distinct characteristics. On the one hand, the NATO-Russia Council, established at the 2002 NATO Summit in Rome, has provided a forum for communication and constructive engagement that has at times been helpful. On the other hand, senior Russian officials have made it clear that Moscow is at best unhappy with NATO's continued enlargement into its former backyard, and at worst considers an enlarging NATO to be a direct threat to its national security.
While NATO continues to stress that enlargement benefits Russia by locking down its western flank inside a new zone of peace, prosperity, and stability, the NATO-Russia relationship is difficult and complicated.
Guiding Questions
Should NATO adjust the tone and substance of its relationship with Russia?
Will Russia's new leadership seek to adjust the tone and substance of the NATO-Russia relationship?
The United States has a unique role to play regarding NATO's relationship with Russia. Should it lead? Should it follow?