America’s International Role Under Donald Trump
Senior Transatlantic Fellow for the Europe Program, Hans Kundnani writes a chapter for the latest Chatham House report on the U.S.' international role under President-elect Trump with a focus on Europe.
The election of Donald Trump is nothing short of a disaster for Europe – not just because his presidency could lead to tensions with the US that would make the transatlantic rift during the first term of George W. Bush look mild, but because it threatens to radically change the parameters within which European countries have acted for 70 years. In particular, the US security guarantee – the basis of European security and historically the precondition for European integration – has been thrown into doubt by the election of Trump, who has criticized, and refused to commit to, the US alliance system. In other words, his election creates radical uncertainty about Europe’s security.
This uncertainty could not have come at a worse time for Europe, which has been badly damaged by six years of internal conflict, and is now preoccupied with the question of the UK’s relationship with the European Union and threatened by a revisionist Russia. Since the election of Trump, which was overwhelmingly opposed in Europe, there have been many calls for Europeans to pull together – and, as usual, some hopes that a crisis might force further integration.153 In particular, there is now an urgent need for Europe to become more independent of the US in security terms. But there are reasons to think that, rather than creating unity among Europeans, the election of Trump and the radical uncertainty about the international order this has created will further divide Europe.
You can find the rest of Kundnani's analysis and the complete report: