There is little doubt that the U.S. and China will play key roles in shaping international diplomacy and governance in the 21st century.  Since China’s emerging economic power joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, Chinese imports to the U.S. have skyrocketed and politicians and policymakers are showing heightened interest in the future of U.S.-Chinese affairs.  As China’s economy continues to boom, military capabilities expand, and relations with Taiwan remain an unsolved challenge, politicians on either side of the Atlantic are expressing alarm. 

Enticing China to become a responsible pillar of the global economic system will prove to be one of the greatest challenges of the coming decade.  With China’s claim to a huge portion of the U.S. national debt, continuing controversies over the 2008 Olympics in Beijing, and recent polling indicating that a majority of voters view China more as an adversary than an ally, Sens. McCain and Obama will have to provide firm policy ideas on how the US will approach China in the next few years.  Sen. John McCain brought China to the forefront of the foreign-policy debate by meeting with the Dalai Lama just two weeks before the start of the Beijing Olympics, and Senator Obama has spoken with the Dalai Lama twice in recent months.  Both candidates are trying to inoculate themselves from the criticism President Bush is likely to garner from human-rights activists by attending the Olympics’ Opening Ceremony.  As the presidential candidates work to sell their foreign policy agendas in the general election, the question will be whether the U.S. will pursue a more cooperative agenda with China during the next administration.

John McCain (R)
“Dealing with a rising China will be a central challenge for the next American president,” Senator McCain announced to the Los Angeles World Affairs Council this past March.  While some critics allege “McCain's foreign-policy checklist is ostracizing China”, the Senator maintains that “China's newfound power implies responsibilities.”   McCain claims that “China could bolster its claim that it is ‘peacefully rising’ by being more transparent about its significant military buildup, by working with the world to isolate pariah states such as Burma, Sudan and Zimbabwe, and by ceasing its efforts to establish regional forums and economic arrangements designed to exclude America from Asia.“

Senator McCain claims that “the rise of potential strategic competitors like China and Russia mean that America requires a larger and more capable military to protect our country's vital interests and deter challenges to our security.”  McCain has also cited China as a motive for “the development and deployment of theater and national missile defenses”.  He claims such defenses are necessary “to hedge against potential threats from possible strategic competitors like Russia and China.”

In April, McCain stated that he would not attend the Olympics’ opening ceremonies in Beijing this summer barring notable adjustments in China’s recent behavior.  “Unless there is some progress with the Dalai Lama, including conversations with him, including stopping this brutal crackdown that we’re seeing in Tibet, then I would make the decision not to go”,  McCain said.  On March 18th McCain released this statement stating: “I deplore the violent crackdown by Chinese authorities and the continuing oppression in Tibet of those merely wishing to practice their faith and preserve their culture and heritage.”   In late July, the Senator met with the Dalai Lama and offered tough criticisms of China and its failure to address political grievances.   "The U.S. welcomes good relations with China, but it does no service to the Chinese government and certainly no service to the people of China for the U.S. and other democracies to pretend that the suppression of rights in China doesn't concern us," Senator McCain said.  Aside from symbolic gestures of disapproval, McCain has firmly maintained that “China and the United States are not destined to be adversaries…But until China moves toward political liberalization, our relationship will be based on periodically shared interests rather than the bedrock of shared values.” 

Barack Obama (D)

In a speech before the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, Senator Obama expressed his views on US-China relations and China’s growing global presence, stating:  “...the emergence of an economically vibrant, more politically active China offers new opportunities for prosperity and cooperation, but also poses new challenges for the United States and our partners in the region. It is time for the United States to take a more active role here – to build on our strong bilateral relations and informal arrangements ...”   Obama has called for stronger involvement in East Asia and a “regional framework”  that assumes a more holistic foreign policy approach rather than a series of bilateral relationships. 

Obama maintains that he will “work to ensure that China plays by international rules” and “will forge a more effective framework in Asia that goes beyond bilateral agreements, occasional summits, and ad hoc arrangements”.  He supported the Fair Currency Act, a bill intended to crack down on countries that manipulate their currencies in order to gain an edge in international trade, and his threat to “stop the import of all toys from China”, in December 2007, implied a hard-edged approach to US-China relations; however, Obama has continuously shown a willingness to engage and cooperate with foreign actors.  While Obama’s foreign policy agenda remains vague on many fronts, Zhu Feng, deputy director at the Center of International and Strategic Studies at Peking University in Beijing, claims: “He will bring new energy into America's domestic politics and foreign policies…It’s a good choice for the Democrats”.   

Obama took issue with President Bush's decision to attend the opening ceremonies of the Olympic Games, saying he would go to Beijing only if he saw progress between the Chinese government and the Dalai Lama.  “If the Chinese do not take steps to help stop the genocide in Darfur and to respect the dignity, security, and human rights of the Tibetan people, then the President should boycott the opening ceremonies.”

Read More

Gates Says New U.S. President Will Maintain Asia Ties Ken Fireman, Bloomberg, May 31, 2008

Should the Next U.S. President Adopt a Tougher Stance on Trade Policy with China? Daniel J. Ikenson and Robert E. Scott, CATO Institute, April 4, 2008

U.S. Election: China’s View NPR (audio), March 3, 2008

Bush Burnishes China Card for Obama, McCain in Taiwan's Shadow Michael Forsythe & Dune Lawrence, Bloomberg, August 4, 2008

McCain Urges Bush to Avoid Confrontations on China Trip David Broder, Washington Post, August 3, 2008

White House Contenders: Avoid Negative Sound Bites on Beijing Jeffrey A. Bader & Richard C. Bush III, Brookings Institution, July 29, 2008

Obama Should Stand Up to Russia's Regime Garry Kasparov, Wall Street Journal, July 29, 2008

McCain Meets With Dalai Lama as Olympics Near Holmes, McKinnon, & Dean, Wall Street Journal, July 26, 2008

Obama says he wouldn't attend Olympics opening ceremony USA Today, July 7, 2008

Obama Can't Go to China Steve Kornnacki, New York Observer, July 1, 2008

Does China like Obama? Sean Ding, China Elections and Governance, June 13, 2008

Obama's Brand in China: Newly Launched, Building Equity Tom Doctoroff, Huffington Post, June 6, 2008

McCain Talking Too Tough on Russia, China Malou Innocent, CATO Institute, June 3, 2008

McCain: US, China could stop making nuke bomb fuel                                                Liz Sidoti, Associated Press, May 27, 2008