The Transatlantic Divide Over the Caucasus Conflict
Nikolas Gvosdev, Atlantic Community, , August 12, 2008

Russia-Georgia Conflict Offers Glimpse at New World Order
Gerald F. Seib, Wall Street Journal, August 12, 2008

Candidates’ Reactions to Georgia Conflict Offer Hints at Style on Foreign Affairs
Elisabeth Bumiller & Michael Falcone, New York Times, August 9, 2008

McCain’s Wrong on Russia—And So Is Obama
Paul J. Saunders and Brooke Leonard, The National Interest, July 30, 2008

McCain, Obama and Russia  
Stephen F. Cohen, The Nation, June 30

The U.S. relationship with Russia is as complicated as ever, and the next U.S. President will have the added responsibility of navigating a new power structure in Russia.  The candidates' rhetoric in addressing Russia varies; both Democrats take a more conciliatory tone and discuss potential areas of cooperation, such as nuclear disarmament, while Senator McCain focuses heavily on finding a new approach towards a "revanchist Russia." All three candidates spoke out against the retreat of democratic values in the country following the May presidential election in the country. The candidates also address the need to work with Russia on issues including NATO expansion, energy security, Kosovo, and policy towards Iran.

On August 9, 2008, Russia and Georgia came into direct conflict after Tbilisi launched an offensive to regain control over the breakaway region of South Ossetia.  Georgia, a close ally of the United States, has relied on military aid and training from Washington, which despite strong opposition from Russia has pushed hard for Georgia to become a member of NATO.  The violence between Russia and Georgia quickly thrust foreign policy into the U.S. presidential election.  Both candidates spoke to Georgia's pro-Western President Mikheil Saakashvili, and called for an end to Russia's military campaign.  Senator McCain retained his hard stand on Russia, forcefully blaming the country and calling it to be ejected from the G-8.  McCain has separated himself from the Bush administration’s policies by mocking Bush’s statement that he saw goodness in former Russian President Vladimir Putin.  Senator Obama was hesitant to blame either side and offered a more measured response to the crisis, urging each nation to show restraint.  Obama later toughened his stance and blamed Russia for invading its neighbor.  The conflict may give Obama an opportunity to display his foreign policy capability, yet also gave prominence to one of the few areas where polling shows that Senator McCain has a clear voter advantage. 

John McCain (R)

In his November 2007 Foreign Affairs article, Senator McCain called for a "new Western approach" to a "revanchist Russia."  He criticized Russia's "diminishing political freedoms, a leadership dominated by a clique of former intelligence officers, efforts to bully democratic neighbors, such as Georgia, and attempts to manipulate Europe's dependence on Russian oil and gas."  He said the G-8 should become "again a club of leading market democracies: it should include Brazil and India but exclude Russia."  In a press release on March 3 the Senator referred to the Russian presidential elections as "another step away from democracy in Russia" and said the Russian people were "deprived of the opportunity to choose their leaders in a free and open contest." In his Foreign Affairs article Senator McCain called on the West to "increase our programs supporting freedom and the rule of law in Russia."   

In  press release following President Medvedev's inauguration, Senator McCain said "the United States needs to work hard to forge a productive relationship with the government and the people of Russia" on areas of mutual interest.  "Americans and Russians share a common interest in a prosperous global economy and mutually beneficial free trade. We share common interests in addressing climate change, the careful use of our natural resources and countering radical Islamic extremism. And we share a common interest in non-proliferation and nuclear arms reduction."

During a speech at the University of Denver in Denver, Colorado on May 27, Senator McCain went on to say, “Russia and the United States are no longer mortal enemies…I believe we should reduce our nuclear forces to the lowest level we judge necessary, and we should be prepared to enter into a new arms control agreement with Russia….In close consultation with our allies, I would also like to explore ways we and Russia can reduce -- and hopefully eliminate -- deployments of tactical nuclear weapons in Europe. I also believe we should work with Russia to build confidence in our missile defense program” He further mentioned that he “ would seriously consider Russia's recent proposal to work together to globalize the Intermediate Range Nuclear Forces Treaty.”

UPDATE: McCain Statements on Georgia:

When Russian troops rolled into South Ossetia on August 9th, Senator McCain immediately gave a statement at the Des Moines airport calling on Russia to "immediately and unconditionally cease its military operations and withdraw all forces from sovereign Georgian territory."   McCain has long criticized Russia, particularly for what he sees as its backsliding on democratic reforms and human rights. "For many years, I have warned against Russian actions that undermine the sovereignty of its neighbors," he said.  "Unfortunately, we have seen in recent days Russia demonstrate that these concerns were well-founded."  McCain immediately took a tougher stance against Russia than either President Bush or Senator Obama, whom he again criticized as too naive and inexperienced to deal with these tense foreign policy issues.

McCain said it was clear the situation in Georgia was dire. "Tensions and hostilities between Georgians and Ossetians are in no way justification for Russian troops crossing an internationally recognized border," he said.  In a later statement, McCain stated: “The U.S. should immediately convene an emergency session of the United Nations Security Council to call on Russia to reverse course. The U.S. should immediately work with the EU and the OSCE to put diplomatic pressure on Russia to reverse this perilous course it has chosen. We should immediately call a meeting of the North Atlantic Council to assess Georgia's security and review measures NATO can take to contribute to stabilizing this very dangerous situation. Finally, the international community needs to establish a truly independent and neutral peacekeeping force in South Ossetia."  McCain said NATO's decision to withhold a Membership Action Plan for Georgia "may have been viewed as a green light for aggression in the region."  Transatlantic cooperation is a central theme in the candidates’ reactions to this crisis.  In a speech in Erie, Pennsylvania on August 11th, Senator McCain argued: “The Secretary of State should begin high-level diplomacy, including visiting Europe, to establish a common Euro-Atlantic position aimed at ending the war and supporting the independence of Georgia.  With the same aim, the U.S. should coordinate with our partners in Germany, France, and Britain, to seek an emergency meeting of the G-7 foreign ministers to discuss the current crisis….The U.S. should work with Azerbaijan and Turkey, and other interested friends, to develop plans to strengthen the security of the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan oil pipeline….The U.S. should send immediate economic and humanitarian assistance to help mitigate the impact the invasion has had on the people of Georgia.”

Barack Obama (D)

Senator Obama discussed the need to "work with the country in areas of common interest -- above all, in making sure that nuclear weapons and material are secure" in the July/August edition of Foreign Affairs.  In an October 2007 speech he elaborated on the need for collaboration: "we'll work with Russia to take U.S. and Russian ballistic missiles off hair-trigger alert, and to dramatically reduce the stockpiles of our nuclear weapons and material."  In a speech on July 16th on addressing new global threats, Obama said he will “make the goal of eliminating all nuclear weapons a central element in our nuclear policy.   We'll negotiate with Russia to achieve deep reductions in both our nuclear arsenals.”   Obama has argued that “we must reject the Cold War mind-set of the past, and resolve to work with Russia when we can”, but in April 2007 Senator Obama said " we shouldn't shy away from pushing for more democracy, transparency, and accountability in [Russia].”  He stressed that the US “must work with powers like Russia and China” and believes that Senator McCain’s proposal to remove Russia from the G-8 “would be a mistake.”
Senator Obama remarked that the March 2008 Russian presidential election "was a tragic step backwards."  While he stressed the need to engage Russia, Obama urged the United States not to "turn a blind eye to democratic erosion inside Russia."  When Russia’s new president, Medvedev promised to "strengthen the rule of law, independent media, and Russia's embrace of political freedom" Obama stated that "all true friends of the Russian people should encourage him to keep his word."  However in an interview on May 14th, the Senator stated:  “Our sense is that Putin is still running the show.  Unless we see some independence from Mr. Medvedev, I think that we’re gonna continue to see the same kinds of autocratic policies and consolidation of power that we’ve been seeing over the last several years.”

UPDATE: Obama Statements on Georgia:

During a speech prior to Russia’s military advancement into Georgia, Obama stated: “Georgia is a sovereign country, a member of the United Nations, and a close friend of the United States. I welcome the desire by Georgia, as well as Ukraine, to seek closer ties with NATO.  Russian President Vladimir Putin's decree establishing closer governmental and legal relations with the Georgian regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, without the approval of the Georgian government, is deeply troubling and contrary to Russia's obligations as a permanent member of the UN Security Council.”  Following the dramatic escalation of violence, Obama released a statement claiming: "I condemn Russia's aggressive actions and reiterate my call for an immediate ceasefire."  He stated: “I strongly condemn the outbreak of violence in Georgia, and urge an immediate end to armed conflict. Now is the time for Georgia and Russia to show restraint, and to avoid an escalation to full scale war.  Georgia’s territorial integrity must be respected. All sides should enter into direct talks on behalf of stability in Georgia, and the United States, the United Nations Security Council, and the international community should fully support a peaceful resolution to this crisis.”  The Senator claims that “the current escalation of military conflict resulted in part from the lack of a neutral and effective peacekeeping force operating under an appropriate UN mandate.”  

Read More

Georgia and Russia Can Avoid War – If the West Helps Christian Science Monitor, June 27, 2008

EU looks past Bush to new era with some apprehension G8Live.org, June 20, 2008

Russian American Media-Makers Choose McCain Over Obama New America Media, June 6, 2008

Medvedev calls for EU-US-Russia peace treaty EUobserver, June 6, 2008

John McCain Discovers Nuclear Arms Control and Disarmament NYU Professor Lawrence Wittner , June 2, 2008

Help Russia help America International Herald Tribune, June 2, 2008

McCain Calls for Talks with Russia on Nuclear Disarmament International Herald Tribune, May 27, 2008

The Russian Challenge The Globalist, May 22, 2008

The Next President Should Make Russia a Priority Dan Rather in the Seattle Post Intelligencer, May 9, 2008

U.S. Foreign Policy Priorities NPR, May 5, 2008

The Overshadowed Issue: Russia CBS News, May 3, 2008

What’s McCain Thinking When He Says Boot Russia from the G-8? McClatchy, May 1, 2008