A Transition Foretold: Drivers and Scenarios of Transition to Democracy in China by 2030 Luncheon Discussion with Professor Minxin Pei and Dr. Thomas Bagger
On Monday, January 18, 2016, Professor Minxin Pei, Professor of Government and Director of the Keck Center for International and Strategic Studies at Claremont McKenna College and Non-Resident Senior Fellow at The German Marshall Fund of the United States presented his research on the potential mechanisms and scenarios for a democratic transition in China. Dr. Thomas Bagger, Head of Policy Planning at the German Federal Foreign Office offered the German and European perspectives in his remarks. Sarah Raine, Non-Resident Transatlantic Fellow at GMF’s Berlin Office, moderated the discussion that followed. Experts on China from the Federal Foreign Office, the German Bundestag, the Federal Ministry of Finance, the Embassy of Japan to Germany, think tanks, and businesses all participated in the roundtable.
In his presentation, Professor Pei offered a range of evidence to support his contention that the decline of the Chinese Communist Party's hold on power was already underway, combining his China and social science expertise to highlight China's particular scores on key indicators for transition against the equivalent in other autocratic regimes which have previously undergone transition. The discussion that followed course focused not just on the likelihood or otherwise of reform but also the scenarios how and why this this might (or might not) unfold.