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News Articles

A China policy primer for Xi Jinping’s visitFebruary 15, 2012

In Washington's internal debates over China policy, several schools of thought are vying for primacy. America's Sinologists should have a little more confidence that the United States can compete with China, not only in the contest for power but in the contest of ideas.

Taiwan’s Election and the Future of the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship: No End to the AffairJanuary 24, 2012

Despite fears of a strategic crisis in Asia,  Taiwan’s presidential elections exemplified the normalcy of its democratic process.

(Why) Should America Abandon Taiwan?January 10, 2012

Taiwan's people may one day vote to reunify with (a politically liberalizing) China. The choice should be left to the Chinese and Taiwanese people, acting through legitimately elected leaders.

Dizzy yet? The pros and cons of the Asia ‘pivot’November 22, 2011The President has finished up a grueling trip to the Asia-Pacific region and can generally feel good about what he accomplished. Like everything this President does, however, the trip was very heavy on political spin.Is the Obama administration willing to back up Clinton’s talk with action?October 14, 2011

Secretary of State Hillary Clinton deserves credit for laying out a comprehensive vision for U.S. engagement in the coming Indo-Pacific century.

Debating Australia’s strategic futureSeptember 01, 2011An extraordinary global shift is underway as power diffuses from the traditional West to rising powers in the developing world.Its Asian geography suggests that Australia should benefit from this shift; indeed, its economy has been catalysed for the past decade by the sale of commodities to China and other Asian powers.India’s Arab Spring OpportunityAugust 24, 2011New Delhi has a golden opportunity to assist in supporting democratic regimes in the Arab World. It’s in its own interests to seize this chance, writes GMF senior fellow for Asia, Dan Twining.Why aren’t we working with Japan and India?July 19, 2011The Obama administration understands that Japan and India are critical bookends of a regional strategy aimed at peaceful cooperation with a rising China, yet something is adrift, writes Daniel Twining.UN Climate Talks and Power Politics: It’s Not about the TemperatureMay 25, 2011GMF Senior Fellow for Asia Daniel Twining testified before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on climate diplomacy.Why isn’t India buying American fighter jets?May 03, 2011India has decided not to buy American F-16's or F/A-18's for the biggest defense tender in its history -- a pending $10 billion-plus contract for 126 multi-role combat aircraft. Following field trials, it has instead shortlisted the Rafale, made by France's Dassault, and the Typhoon, produced by a European consortium.Not a Chinese Century, An Indo-American OneApril 04, 2011China’s three decades of explosive growth and increasing influence on the global stage have often led to talk of the country dominating the 21st century. But Daniel Twining argues that democratic values and strategic interests shared by India and the US could upend this expectation as the two countries pull closer together.What we learned from the Security Council debate over LibyaMarch 21, 2011Friday the United Nations Security Council voted to authorize military intervention to protect the Libyan people from the depredations of Colonel Qaddafi's rule. What have we learned from the debate over the resolution and its outcome?The 112th Congress and Post-Crisis AsiaMarch 11, 2011An appreciation of America's enduring strengths should be a source of confidence for the 112th Congress. With the right choices, the U.S. will meet the challenges in Asia, draw benefits from Asian growth and peace, and continue to shape the future.The Pakistan ParallelFebruary 18, 2011Why has the Obama administration been so tepid in its support for the biggest popular revolution in the modern Arab world? The short answer is Washington’s fear that a vacuum left by President Mubarak’s departure will be filled by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.Political reform: China’s next modernization?January 13, 2011China boasts the world's second-largest economy, delivering double-digit economic growth on a seemingly permanent basis. As President Hu Jintao prepares to visit Washington next week, his country's model of authoritarian development looks unstoppable - with troubling implications for American primacy in world affairs.Six challenges Obama faces in Asia in 2011, and six ways to overcome themJanuary 05, 2011President Obama had a good year in Asia in 2010. It featured a more realistic China policy, a breakthrough visit to India, and the shelving of an irritating base dispute with Japan, but challenges loom.Herald a new orderDecember 21, 2010United States President Barack Obama accomplished three important things during his visit to India last month. He put to bed a notion that held sway earlier in his administration that a US-China 'G2' could jointly manage Asia and the world.Are U.S.-India relations oversold?November 12, 2010The biggest disappointment of President Barack Obama's Asia trip was his failure to strike an agreement on the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement in Seoul. His biggest success was his embrace of a transformative partnership with India. The president can now claim ownership of a relationship that has been on the rocks since he took office.For an Indo-American CenturyNovember 06, 2010President Obama’s trip to New Delhi and Mumbai should solidify a partnership that could shape the 21st century the way the Atlantic alliance shaped the 20th.A Roadmap for Revitalizing the U.S. Partnership With IndiaOctober 19, 2010Democratic Partnership in AsiaOctober 18, 2010Should the liberal West brace itself for the global projection of Beijing’s model of authoritarian modernity in preparation for the time, as the title of Martin Jacques’s latest book foresees, “when China rules the world”?China’s maritime agression should be wake-up call to JapanSeptember 20, 2010The Sino-Japanese standoff over Japan's detention of a Chinese trawler captain who acted aggressively towards the Japanese coast guard in waters near the disputed Senkaku islands is part of a larger pattern of Chinese assertiveness towards its neighbors over the past few years.Why India has mixed emotions about ObamaAugust 06, 2010

President Obama will visit India on a state visit in early November. I recently returned from New Delhi, and it was a trip that revealed a mix of hope and ambivalence that awaits the president's arrival, including a sense in India that the Obama administration is starting to pay attention to them.

‘A lack of fire in the belly,’ concludes Pakistan on Obama’s war strategyJune 25, 2010"Pakistan is said to pursue a foothold in Afghanistan," reads today's headline. Breaking news? Old news, rather. Nonetheless, the New York Times has done its readers a service by laying out clearly the danger the Pakistani military's intentions pose to the project of democratic state-building and security in Afghanistan. It has also reminded us, yet again, how President Obama's July 2011 date for the start of a U.S. troop drawdown has created a perverse incentive structure that encourages both the Afghan and Pakistani governments to hedge against the United States in this vital region.The implications of Hatoyama’s downfall for the U.S.-Japan allianceJune 02, 2010

A new year, another new Japanese prime minister. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's resignation makes him the fourth Japanese leader in four years to fall from power. What are the implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance?

Diplomatic NegligenceMay 10, 2010Despite the many affinities between the United States and India, the Obama administration risks putting India back into its subcontinental box, treating it as little more than a regional power, while it elevates China, through both rhetoric and policy, to the level of a global superpower on par with the United States.Getting Asia right means getting India rightApril 27, 2010Not all the problems in U.S. relations with important Asian powers can be laid at Washington's door. And the Obama administration has taken some constructive early steps.The BRICs: Building blocks of a new world order that diminishes the West?April 23, 2010China is a manufacturing superpower; India is the world's largest democracy and "knowledge power"; Russia is a potential "energy superpower," according to the U.S. National Intelligence Council; and Brazil dominates a region lacking any great power competitor. An alliance among these behemoths could change history in ways that diminish the West.On this Asia trip, Obama could take a cue from BushMarch 16, 2010When it comes to Asia, perhaps serving administration officials should spend less time slamming their predecessors' record and more time studying up on it.What the capture of Mullah Baradar says about Pakistan’s intentionsFebruary 16, 2010The capture of Taliban commander Mullah Baradar in a combined Pakistani-American intelligence operation in Karachi is a major development in the war on terror. This is true not only, and obviously, with reference to the military campaign against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Perhaps more profoundly, it is also true with reference to the future of U.S.-Pakistan relations.Quitting Isn’t An OptionFebruary 09, 2010World leaders meeting in London recently to discuss Afghanistan's future have dealt themselves a weak hand. The principal obstacles to success in Afghanistan have not been the adversary's strength or any lack of support for the international mission by the Afghan public. Rather, the primary obstacles to victory have been western temporising, irresolution and planned force reductions on a timeline that better suits the Taliban's strategic objectives than our own.Getting Afghanistan right in LondonJanuary 29, 2010If there is one thing the allies can accomplish in London, it is to signal to the Afghan Taliban - and to all Afghans and neighboring powers sitting on the fence, waiting to cast their lot with the winning side - that NATO is in this fight to win it.Get China right by getting Asia rightJanuary 21, 2010In 2010, President Obama would be well-advised to shift from an "inside-out" to an "outside-in" Asia policy. Rather than taking an approach to this dynamic region that starts with Beijing, raising fears of a Sino-American condominium, he could follow former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's maxim that "getting China right means getting Asia right." Eine deutsche PakistanstrategieJanuary 09, 2010In this German-language op-ed (full text in original language here), Kleine-Brockhoff and Twining argue that ignoring Pakistan is dangerous for a country that has troops in Afghanistan -- even if it is only a midsize country and has no historical ties to Pakistan or interests there. But if Germany wants to be successful in Afghanistan and eventually withdraw, it will have to engage more actively in Pakistan, and make more resources and attention available.Cheer up America: You’re still on top of the world.January 05, 2010The United States need not be so pessimistic about its future. Its position in the world continues to grow in significance, and there is little indication that it is entering a period of decline - even in the face of Asia's rise.Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century: The Role of Korean-American Partnership in Shaping Asia’s Emerging OrderDecember 31, 2009Northeast Asia is a region where the interests of several great powers are in constant flux between competition and cooperation. Such a peculiar strategic environment is reflected in the dynamics of the Korean Peninsula.What is Obama’s real ‘Exit Strategy’ for Afghanistan? And why it matters to IndiaDecember 04, 2009

One way to judge President Obama's speech announcing (another) new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan is by how it fares among those on the front lines. As one senior official in Kabul puts it in today's Wall Street Journal Asia, "We couldn't solve the Afghanistan problem in eight years, but now the U.S. wants to solve it in 18 months? I don't see how it could be done."

Why Obama needs to play his cards right with IndiaNovember 24, 2009As Obama sits down with Prime Minister Singh, he should consider India as the key ally of the U.S. in Asia, both in terms of practical cooperation on global issues and in terms of ensuring that India continues to rise as an alternative to China, sharing the values of the West. Afghanistan and Pakistan: Time for the Hatoyama Administration to Show Japan’s Latent PowerNovember 18, 2009In a day where Japan's importance in the world seems to be diminishing, 'AfPak' is a valuable opportunity for Japan to demonstrate that it is still an important player in both Asia and the world at large, as well as to support its transatlantic allies. A crib sheet for President Obama’s upcoming Asian summitryNovember 10, 2009The United States is at the center of the international system in Asia, and desirably so. During his visit to Asia, President Obama should show that he has a strategic vision for sustaining American leadership in the region.Is China a new ideological superpower? Don’t bet on it.October 29, 2009China's political system makes it an outlier in a democratic Asia, rather than an example of a new model. The stakes in Afghanistan go well beyond AfghanistanSeptember 30, 2009The problem with the current debate over Afghanistan is that it is too focused on Afghanistan. There is no question that the intrinsic importance of winning wars our country chooses to fight -- to secure objectives that remain as compelling today as they were on September 12, 2001 -- is itself reason for President Obama to put in place a strategy for victory in Afghanistan.
Our Pakistan ProblemSeptember 14, 2009What national interest does the United States have in Afghanistan? According to recent polls, more and more Americans doubt there is any. This flagging support partly reflects the job the Obama administration has done explaining its goals and strategy in Afghanistan to a skeptical public. But it also reflects the underappreciated fact that succeeding in Afghanistan and defeating America's enemies there, as important as that is in its own right, is even more so for its effects in shaping Pakistan's future.Questions that Obama’s Af-Pak strategy doesn’t answerMarch 30, 2009Fellow Republicans have hailed President Obama's new strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan. The new administration's strategy is welcome, both for its substance and, as importantly, for the profile it has given to the urgency of defeating the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan and its growing strength in Pakistan. But as with every strategy, it contains trade-offs and shortcomings that, after the warm glow that has accompanied the Washington establishment's reception of the president's plan has worn off, may become more apparent.What we learned from Pakistan’s recent political crisisMarch 17, 2009Pakistan's political crisis of last weekend was precipitated by opposition leader Nawaz Sharif's pledge to march on Islamabad in support of freedom of the judiciary after both Nawaz and his brother Shahbaz, who had been chief minister of Punjab province, were disqualified by Musharraf-era Supreme Court justices from holding elected office.Could China and India go to war over Tibet?March 10, 2009Today is the 50th anniversary of the Lhasa uprising. Much of the associated commentary suggests that Tibet is, at most, an internal human rights issue in China, albeit one that impacts China's foreign relations with Western democracies who care about the plight of the Tibetan people. Indeed, the Dalai Lama's admission that Tibet is part of China, and that he seeks true autonomy rather than actual independence for his people, reaffirm this view. There is also, however, an external dimension to the Tibetan crisis, one that implicates core national security interests of nuclear-armed great powers.Five Reasons Why This North Korean Crisis is No Groundhog DayMarch 05, 2009North Korea’s missile and nuclear tests, new threats of war against its declared enemies, and the predictable results of these developments -– expressions of concern at the UN Security Council, U.S. offers of more unconditional talks, China’s ambivalent response –- suggest that we remain in the “Groundhog Day” cycle of crisis and response that has characterized U.S. policy towards Pyongyang since 1994Don’t Dumb Down AfghanistanFebruary 23, 2009Reading tea leaves is a dangerous business when it comes to a new administration. There is always a fair amount of floundering around that comes from having too few senior people in place, unsettled -policymaking processes, and indecision over which campaign promises to keep and which to toss overboard. Take, for example, the Obama administration's policy toward Afghanistan. While running for president, Barack Obama promised that help was on its way in the form of thousands of additional troops; now President Obama appears to have put his own promised surge on hold.India needs a lot more love from ObamaFebruary 20, 2009In 1998, President Clinton flew over Japan without stopping to spend nine days in China. This led to acute concern in Tokyo over "Japan passing" -- the belief that Washington was neglecting a key Asian ally in favor of the region's rising star, China. Is the same thing happening today -- not with Japan, destination of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's first overseas trip, but with India?A U.S. Asia strategy for Hillary Clinton’s tripFebruary 15, 2009Hillary Clinton deserves kudos for making Asia her first trip as secretary of state. Generations of senior U.S. officials were trained and socialized as Atlanticists, a legacy of the centrality of Europe during the Cold War. However, it does not diminish our European allies to acknowledge that if the 20th century was an Atlantic century, the 21st century looks likely to be a Pacific one.Don’t move the goalposts on AfghanistanJanuary 28, 2009If Iraq was "Bush's War," Afghanistan may well become "Obama's War." But as the New York Times reports today, the Obama administration is attempting to shift the goalposts in Afghanistan away from building a functioning democracy and toward the limited objective of denying terrorists sanctuary on Afghan soil.You were at the Inauguration; China was planning for warJanuary 22, 2009While everyone here in the United States and beyond was focused on Barack Obama's Inauguration on Tuesday, China chose that day to slip this little item under the door -- China's National Defense in 2008, their annual white paper detailing plans for increased defense spending and military modernization.India’s relations with Iran and Myanmar: “Rogue state” or responsible democratic stakeholder?April 10, 2008What kind of great power will India become as it rises in the twenty-first century? Indian foreign policy today embodies the contradictions and ambiguities stemming from India's ongoing evolution from a nonaligned, developing nation into one of the world's most powerful democracies.

Democracy and American grand strategy in Asia: The realist principles behind an enduring idealismMarch 31, 2008

Has democracy promotion been discredited as a central theme of American foreign policy after the US experience in Iraq? Many American critics and friends overseas appear to believe so. It would be wrong, however, to believe that the ideational approach of American foreign policy will diminish, particularly in Asia.

Our Pakistan ChallengeNovember 19, 2007Pakistan is the swing state in the worldwide struggle against Islamic terrorists. Its decisive position makes Pervez Musharraf's imposition of martial law on November 3 a hard test for American foreign policy.Playing the America CardOctober 01, 2007

China's rise in Asia and the world is one of the big stories of our time. Goldman Sachs predicts that China's economy will be bigger than America's in two decades. From Shanghai to Singapore, one hears whispers of a "new Chinese century" recalling the Sino-centric hierarchy of traditional Asia. Yet China's geopolitical ascent is creating what Mao Zedong would have termed a "contradiction": China's rising power makes the United States increasingly important to nearly every Asian nation, including China itself.

Asia’s challenge to ChinaSeptember 25, 2007

American economic weakness, Europe's uncertain political and demographic future, turmoil in the Middle East and challengers to western leadership from Moscow to Tehran may signal a new moment in world politics. It is characterised by the decline of free nations whose power and principles have shaped international society for centuries and the emergence of an autocratic Chinese superpower whose seemingly unstoppable economic ascent shatters the comfortable belief that capitalist development leads to democracy. Should the liberal west brace itself for a new global "Beijing consensus" of authoritarian modernity?

America’s Grand Design in AsiaMay 31, 2007In a dynamic Asian order featuring new centers of power, China's rise will naturally challenge Washington's ability to protect its interests in the region. In 2000, presidential candidate George W. Bush labeled China as the United States' leading strategic and military competitor. In September 2005, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick explicitly warned Beijing not to "maneuver toward a predominance of power" in Asia, suggesting that it was doing exactly that.The New Great Game: Why the Bush administration has embraced IndiaDecember 20, 2006Three recent events illuminate the contours and fault lines of Asia's emerging strategic landscape, amid the lengthening shadows cast by China's growing power.America is pursuing a grand design in AsiaSeptember 25, 2006Asia’s strong states will shape the future of international politics more than the weak states and terrorists of Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon.Russia’s Shadow EmpireMay 11, 2006Since 2003, democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia have dealt strategic blows to the ambition of Russia's leaders to reconstitute the former Soviet empire by retaining political and military suzerainty over their weaker neighbors. But Russia's imperial pretensions along its periphery linger.Putin’s Power PoliticsJanuary 16, 2006IN A WORLD OF AMERICAN preponderance, European integration, and Asian ascent, it is sometimes hard to take Russia seriously as a great power.China’s Rise Threatens to Divide Asia, Not Unite ItAugust 22, 2005

Not since modern Japan moved on to the world stage a century ago has a non-western power emerged with such potential to transform the global order as China today. The Pentagon sees a budding rival military power; the US Congress views Chinese acquisitions of US companies as a national security threat; and Mario Monti, the former European commissioner, laments that Europe could one day be little more than "a suburb of Shanghai".

Publications

Assessing Japan’s Election: Is the Sun Setting or Rising on Reform?July 09, 2010Ten months ago the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) ended six decades of near-unbroken rule by the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP), ushering in a new political era.  But on July 11, elections for Japan’s upper house rolled back DPJ gains and produced yet another divided government, seemingly dashing hopes for effective reform.  A look beneath the surface of the election results, however, reveals glimmerings of a new direction for Japan during an era political transition – one that could augur a revitalization of Japanese power and purpose at home and abroad.Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century: The Role of Korean-American Partnership in Shaping Asia’s Emerging OrderApril 01, 2010Is the U.S. alliance with the Republic of Korea (ROK) stuck in the past? A comparison with many of Washington's other relationships with Asian powers might make it seem so. Despite uncertainties with arising from Japan's new domestic political constellation, the U.S.-Japan alliance has transformed beyond recognition over the past 15 years as the two countries used their partnership as a framework to promote Japan's evolutionary "normalization" as a great power.As Asia RisesMarch 02, 2010GMF author Daniel Twining argues that the West has a chance to shape emerging Asia in ways that enlarge its community of values and interests as well as strengthen pluralism in the world’s most dynamic region.“Af-Pak,” Obama’s Strategy For Afghanistan and PakistanJuly 01, 2009State weakness that enables terrorists to find sanctuary in Pakistan and Afghanistan poses a direct danger to Europeans and Americans. Terrorist attacks in Western capitals on both sides of the Atlantic emanated from ungoverned territories thousands of kilometers away in South and Central Asia, and terrorists continue to plot new attacks. Al Qaeda and its affiliates have sought weapons of mass destruction, including nuclear material, raising the risk that another terrorist strike in the heart of the West could be even more devastating.How Tiananmen Changed China — And Still CouldJune 05, 2009Absent from almost all Chinese education curricula, the Tiananmen Square massacre of June 4, 1989 marks a pivotal point in Chinese economic and socio- political history. That day, thousands of innocent lives were lost and the rising desire for political liberalization and democratic reform crushed. Over the past 20 years, however, the repercussions of Six-four have deeply affected China's political, social and economic agenda. As the country is rapidly growing from a low-cost manufacturing into a developed, consumer-based society, Chinas find itself confronted with a very different set of problems. GMF Fellow Dan Twining reflects on the sweeping changes in Chinese society and closely examines their economic, social and political impact and what they can tell us about China's future.De-Hyphenate Af-PakMay 05, 2009As President Obama hosts the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan in Washington tomorrow and calls on Congress to increase assistance to both countries, his administration can claim credit for regionalizing America's strategy for victory in Afghanistan.