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News Articles

America Rediscovers the AtlanticJanuary 28, 2013Most Europeans will be pleased with the re-election of President Obama after a campaign that many in Europe never realized was such a close run thing. Why Syria’s regional spillovers could prompt interventionOctober 11, 2012Turkey's forced landing of a Syrian passenger jet from Moscow suspected of carrying military cargo is the latest example of regional spillover from the Syria crisis. Bleak Prospects for No-Fly Zone as Proxy War Grips SyriaAugust 14, 2012GMF's Ian Lesser talks to Deutsche Welle about possible military action to stem the violence in Syria as the conflict enters its 18th month in the Middle East nation.Ian Lesser: Turkey Plays Critical Role Between East and West on Syria, IranApril 12, 2012Ian Lesser joins France24's "The Interview" to discuss Turkey's pivotal role in the Middle East, including the Syria crisis and Iran.France24 Interviews Ian Lesser on Greek CrisisNovember 03, 2011Did Greece just precipitate its exit from the euro? Options are slim should George Papandreou’s gambit fail. François Picard’s panel argues over the relative merits of announcing – on the eve of a G-20 Summit - a referendum on the EU bailout plan. ...Turkey, the NATO Summit, and AfterNovember 23, 2010The Lisbon Summit outcomes are good news for Turkey. The Alliance is finally turning to strategic challenges more relevant to Turkey’s neighborhood. Even on the hotly-debated question of missile defense, the agreed approach enhances Turkish security and improves the outlook for cooperation with Russia.What to Read on Turkish PoliticsNovember 01, 2009The reach of Turkey's cultural and foreign policies extends from the Balkans to Western China, and the country plays an increasingly important role in debates about the future of both Europe and the Middle East.Fighting Chance Chapter 13: Europe and NatoSeptember 08, 2009Several points are worth noting as context for discussing trends and shocks in Europe. First, the region is more dynamic than it appears. At first glance the Western Europe/North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) region seems relatively settled, with a reasonably predictable trajectory, few opportunities for conflict, and gradual social, economic, and political adjustments—a place of gentle trends and few shocks. Is this realistic?Opinion: The Turkey-Armenia detenteSeptember 05, 2009

This week, Turkey and Armenia announced their intention to establish diplomatic relations, open the closed border between the two countries and launch a series of talks and confidence-building measures aimed at resolving long-standing disputes and fostering closer cooperation.

Senior TAF Ian Lesser testifies before Congress on Europe-Israel relationsJuly 09, 2008Senior Transatlantic Fellow Ian Lesser testified today before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs in a joint hearing of the Subcommittee on Europe and the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. His testimony is posted in the attached document.Global trends, regional consequences: Wider strategic influences on the Black SeaNovember 27, 2007The wider Black Sea area is rapidly becoming a focal point of interest for a number of extra-regional actors that can also be considered, in view of their active involvement, to be stakeholders. As Ian Lesser, the author of this new Xenophon Paper suggests, the Black Sea is strategically significant because it is an important part of the European security environment.Beyond Suspicion: Rethinking U.S.-Turkish RelationsOctober 19, 2007

Dr. Ian Lesser, a senior Transatlantic Fellow at GMF, has written a new book analyzing the current challenges facing the U.S.-Turkish relationship, examining the growing friction between the United States and Turkey, and exploring ways to rebuild and reshape bilateral ties. It is available for download as a PDF.

From Iran to Israel: American Choices in IraqApril 01, 2007

This article discusses the challenges facing the US in the broader Middle East, four years after the Iraq war. It highlights the implications of a more chaotic strategic environment for the region, the risk of multiple "civil wars," and the opportunity costs with regard to the Palestinian-Israeli crisis and other issues. It was written for the French publication Afkar Idées and is written in French. The full article is available for download below:

Portugal and the Southern Mediterranean: Transatlantic Interest and StrategiesMarch 06, 2007With relations between the Muslim world and the West in periodic crisis, the southern Mediterranean has become a strategic concern on both sides of the Atlantic.Turkey, the United States and the Delusion of GeopoliticsNovember 14, 2006Turkey and Turkish-US relations have been prisoners of a narrow concept of geopolitics. The key questions are not geographic - whether Turkey is a bridge or a barrier, a flank or a front - but how Turkey will act, and whether Turkish and American policies are convergent or divergent.Anxieties Without Borders: The United States, Europe and Their Southern NeighboursMarch 01, 2005If the last half of the twentieth century was shaped largely by East-West relations, will the first decades of the twenty-first century be defined along North-South lines?Strategic Europe Revisited: A Transatlantic ViewMay 13, 2013

Europe is the original strategic actor - and that may be part of the problem. If we define "strategic" as a concern for vital interests and objectives, broadly defined, Europe has been in the strategy business for a very long time. From Mediterranean empires, to the rise of modern nation states, to the industrial revolution and the globalization of European competition, Europe has led the intellectual debate about geopolitics and strategy. It has also experienced the dramatic costs of strategic ambition as well as the failure to think strategically. I hope my former RAND colleagues will forgive me if I say that, even during the Cold War, much of the best strategic thinking was to be found in Europe. Europe has a long history of thinking and acting strategically. But this history, especially when it comes to questions of national power, is also highly fraught.

Publications

Turkey’s Cold WarsMarch 13, 2013

This policy brief examines tensions that Turkey has faced, and continues to face, in its foreign policy.

Three Troubling Scenarios for Turkey and Transatlantic PartnersSeptember 14, 2012

This policy brief outlines possible outcomes for the current situation in Syria and eastern Mediterranean.

Turkey and Syria: The Middle Eastern Risks NATO Cannot IgnoreJuly 16, 2012

This policy brief argues for more Western support for Turkey's position on Syria.

Morocco’s New Geopolitics: A Wider Atlantic PerspectiveFebruary 10, 2012

This study argues that Morocco should encourage policymakers in the United States and Europe to think more imaginatively about its role in the Atlantic and elsewhere.

Turkey’s Third Wave — And the Coming Quest for Strategic ReassuranceOctober 25, 2011

This policy brief examines Turkey's changing foreign policy strategy....

Turks, Europeans, and Americans Debate Power and ProsperityAugust 10, 2011

The fourth meeting of the Trilateral Strategy Group was held in Istanbul, May 25-27, 2011, on the theme of Perspectives on Power and Prosperity...

Strategy Toward Europe’s Neighborhood and the Turkish Role: An American PerspectiveApril 06, 2011

This policy brief offers an American perspective on the evolving strategic environment in Europe’s neighborhood.

The Revolutions in Turkey’s Near AbroadFebruary 16, 2011

This policy brief examines the impacts of changes in the Middle East on Turkey's relations with the West.

Turkey, the NATO Summit, and AfterNovember 23, 2010

In this policy brief, the author explains that the Lisbon NATO summit experience suggests that some aspects of Turkish foreign policy remain cautious and traditional, and the NATO connection still matters.

Turkey’s New Foreign Policy Direction and Implications for U.S. PolicyJuly 28, 2010Dr. Ian Lesser, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow, testifies before the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs regarding Turkey's new foreign policy direction and implications for U.S. policy.Rethinking Turkish-Western Relations: A Journey Without MapsJune 30, 2010

The striking changes in Turkish society and policy make for an uneasy relationship between Ankara and its transatlantic partners. The emerging Turkish-Western relationship will be a la carte and driven by national interests rather than geopolitics and identity.

Regional Flashpoints and Trilateral Strategies: Reflections on the DebateJune 11, 2010

Reflecting on the recent discussion within GMF's Trilateral Strategy Group, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow, Dr. Ian Lesser discusses the points of convergence and divergence among Turkey, the United States, and Europe in their approaches to regional flashpoints and strategies. Debate in this multi-year series of meetings reflects some important differences in perceptions of risk and preferred responses. Iran and Russia will continue to be key tests.Looking ahead, perspectives on the West and changing power balances on a global basis are set to become even more central to the future of trilateral relations.

Turkey and the Nuclear SummitApril 21, 2010

Considering persistent U.S.-Turkish differences over Iran, the participation by the Turkish Prime Minister in last week's Nuclear Security Summit in Washington was viewed as good news. However, the summit has not bridged the gap in strategy toward Iran's nuclear ambitions.

Southern AtlanticismMarch 22, 2010

As countries such as Brazil and South Africa emerge as serious players on the international stage, Ian O. Lesser contends that a strategy for the other half of the Atlantic rim is needed. Policy planners need to think in terms of a “wider Atlanticism” if the United States and Europe are to maintain a central role in shaping the transatlantic agenda of the future.

Can Turkey Live with a Nuclear IranMarch 02, 2010

Could the emergence of a nuclear Iran be accommodated comfortably in the Turkish security scene? Or would it spell a fundamental and negative transformation of the strategic environment? The answer to this question should inform the Turkish calculus as the international community grapples with the challenge of a near-nuclear Iran.

Decoding the Erdoğan VisitDecember 15, 2009

In early December, Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan made an official visit to Washington to meet with President Obama. Both sides are likely to have come away convinced that some potentially difficult issues have been managed. Yet, the visit did little to bridge substantial differences in perception and approach on key issues, above all, Iran, the Palestinian issue, and the complex of disputes in the Caucasus. Policymakers and observers on both sides are left with a list of unresolved open questions that could shape the course of the new model partnership in the near to medium term.

The New Turkish LexiconNovember 03, 2009

Overtures toward Tehran, Damascus, Baghdad, the Kurdish regional government, and Turkey's own Kurds have contributed to the perception of a "Turkish moment," in which new ground is being broken on virtually a daily basis. Turkey's leadership seems unconcerned by the potential risks of dilution and overstretch, and so far, there has been little to check Ankara's momentum.

The New Look in Missile Defense: Thinking Through Turkish StakesSeptember 28, 2009

The Obama administration's decision to reconfigure its missile defense plans in Europe will have significant implications for Turkey and its alliance relationships. This will cast a spotlight on Turkey's policy toward Iran's nuclear ambitions, and looming decisions on sanctions and the possible use of force.

The Global Economic Crisis: Strategic Implications for Turkey, Europe, and the United StatesJuly 28, 2009

GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Dr. Ian O. Lesser offers his summary and reflections on the debate from the Trilateral Strategy Group meeting in Istanbul, June 4-6, 2009. His report underscores the potentially far-reaching social, political, and geopolitical consequences of the global crisis. Turkey's troubled EU candidacy may be particularly vulnerable, against a backdrop of declining prosperity and confidence in Europe. But the crisis also raises larger questions about power and competitiveness, and offers opportunities to rethink longstanding approaches to Turkey in a transatlantic context.

Russia, Europe, Iran: Three Grand Strategic Issues in U.S.-Turkish RelationsJune 19, 2009

In his April visit to Turkey, President Barack Obama used the term "model partnership" to describe U.S.-Turkish relations. This terminology can be given content when partners contribute to managing grand strategic challenges-issues central to the national interests of each side. Three "meta" issues-Russia, Europe, and Iran-will pose key tests for U.S.-Turkish cooperation over the next few years.

GMF Fellow Lesser testifies on U.S.-Turkish relations before House committeeMay 14, 2009

GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Dr. Ian O. Lesser testified on May 14 before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs. He outlined the new dynamics and next steps in U.S.-Turkish relations. Lesser's testimony is available for download below.

The Obama Visit and After: Changing Style and Substance in U.S.-Turkish RelationsApril 14, 2009

The visit of U.S. president, Barack Obama, to Turkey so early in his administration is significant. Just as significant is the fact that the visit came as part of high-profile European tour. Key topics on the bilateral agenda may have been Middle Eastern or Eurasian, but the policy dialogue in Ankara and Istanbul was a dialogue with a transatlantic partner.

Do We Understand Turkey?February 04, 2009

In mid January, Dr. Lesser visited Turkey at the height of the Gaza crisis, with Turks captivated by the ongoing Ergenekon investigation, and on the eve of Barack Obama's inauguration. His discussions revealed deepening concerns, not just about the obvious effects of the global economic crisis, but also about the basic trajectory of Turkish society, governance, and foreign policy.

Turkey and the Global Economic CrisisDecember 01, 2008

It is now apparent that the global economy is headed for a deep and prolonged crisis, with potentially dramatic consequences for emerging as well as developed markets. Turkey is in no sense decoupled from the effects of this global turmoil. Over the next few years, economic stress could have a dramatic effect on Turkey's internal and external scene, including regional security and the prospects for Turkish relations with the European Union and the United States.

Turkey and Transatlantic Trends: How Distinctive?September 15, 2008

The Transatlantic Trends Key Findings Report summarizes the Turkish story in 2008. Recent conversations about the results in Ankara and Istanbul suggest some intriguing observations and open questions. The key divide in the Turkish debate is between those who remain attached to the active and "balanced" AKP foreign policy and those who wish to set more deliberate priorities, looking east or west. Many in Europe are weighing the Turkish case in light of past enlargement experience, with a sense that process and momentum are likely to outweigh public reservations. As almost half of Turkish respondents favored a unilateral approach to international issues, it is worth asking whether Turkish perspectives are not closer to those most often ascribed to Washington.

After Georgia: Turkey’s Looming Foreign Policy DilemmasAugust 26, 2008

The Russian invasion of Georgia is a stark reminder of the unsettled nature of the Turkish geopolitical scene. By all indications, the crisis in Georgia is unlikely to end anytime soon. Even if Russian forces withdraw to negotiated positions, there is every prospect for a sustained Russian political and security presence in the country. Under these conditions, Ankara will once again face Russian power directly on its borders. In the near-term, Turkey will face difficult policy choices in reconciling the country's Russian and Western interests. Even more difficult dilemmas are on the horizon as a more competitive relationship with Russia looms, and NATO is compelled to rethink its own strategy and posture.

Europe and Israel: Strengthening the Partnership- Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign AffairsJuly 09, 2008Senior Transatlantic Fellow Ian Lesser testified today before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs in a joint hearing of the Subcommittee on Europe and the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. His testimony is posted in the attached document.Turkey After the Verdict: Back to Normal?July 01, 2008

The decision by Turkey's constitutional court to warn and sanction, but not close the Justice and Development Party (AKP), offers an opportunity to Turks and Turkey's international partners. After almost a year of distraction and disarray, Ankara may now be able to focus on the most pressing problems facing the country. Europe and the United States may now be able to treat Turkey as a "normal" country again. Much will depend on whether the court's decision ushers in a period of moderation or renewed polarization, and whether the AKP government uses its renewed freedom of action to think strategically about external policy.

Rediscovering the Mediterranean: A Transatlantic Perspective on Security and StrategyMay 01, 2008

The American presence in the Mediterranean is longstanding, but despite 200 years of engagement in the region, the American perspective on the Mediterranean remains distinctive and diffused.

Turkey’s Travails: Outlook and Strategic ConsequencesMay 01, 2008

As Turkey’s Constitutional Court prepares to act on the closure case pending against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turks across the ideological spectrum are watching and waiting. Predictions and preferences abound; active responses are limited. Caution and inertia appear to be the order of the day, even for those most exposed to the consequences of political and economic turmoil.

Iran Policy After the NIE? Modest Findings, Revolutionary EffectsJanuary 08, 2007

Findings from the recently released National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's program are not revolutionary - but the ensuing debate could be transforming for U.S. and transatlantic strategy toward Iran.  The new estimate suggests that Tehran may well opt for a prolonged "near-nuclear" posture to secure greater regional weight and influence without triggering a sharp diplomatic or military response.  The option of a military strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure now looks more remote. But longer term transatlantic strategy will need to emphasize containment and extended deterrence ? alongside possible strategic dialogue with Iran.