Publications

This policy brief argues that the eurocrisis provides more justification for Turkey to join the EU.

This policy paper explores how neighboring countries are affecting the nations of the Arab
Spring.

This brief looks at the recent evolution of Turkey's foreign policy.

This policy brief examines shifts in Turkey's military leadership....

Don't jump to simple conclusions about Turkish-Israeli relations. The periodic crises between Turkey and Israel are more a function of structural causes and the changing strategic environment in the region than the proclivities of the principal actors. In the end, all valiant efforts for managing relations may prove insufficient to prevent future crises from erupting.

Turkey had two options: Wage war and send the military across the border to northern Iraq, where the PKK made the Kandil mountain range their headquarters, or engage politically with Iraqi Kurds and seek serious reform at home.

Turkey recently passed an important threshold in the great power shift from the military to civilian authorities that started at the beginning of the decade. Rooted in Turkey's social and political transformation, but strongly aided and secured by the EU accession process, this power shift reconfigures the politics of the republic. Whether this deepening civilianization will lead, as expected, to a rule based democratic consolidation and finally finish the "second transition" from democratic government to democratic regime remains to be seen.

Following Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent cabinet appointments, Bülent Arýnç will serve as deputy prime minister and Ahmet Davutoglu as foreign minister. This brief discusses a method for looking at Turkey's policies and how the country's goals may line up with those of its allies, including the United States.

Elections are always a serious business in Turkey and the local elections that just took place were no exception. The electorate gave a stern warning to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and notably Prime Minister Erdogan, who ran an energetic but harsh, angry, and polarizing campaign. In light of the election results, the question before Turkey is what course the AKP will take, or to be more precise, how the Prime Minister will interpret the results and how he will respond.

Despite the theatrics and the surge of anti-Israeli and anti-Semitic sentiment in Turkey, the government's positions suggest that Turkey still sees a role for itself in Middle East peacemaking, wants Israel to be more concerned about regional instability, and wishes to work with the United States if and when the new administration re-engages with the region.

Whether or not Turkey is turning its back on the West is a frequently asked question and a common refrain, particularly after Turkey's reaction to Israel's assault against Hamas in Gaza. Turkey remains strategically Western-oriented and in fact the ongoing Ergenekon investigation reaffirms its Atlanticist credentials. What Turkey's Western allies must do is have a self-critical look at their record and then ask themselves whether the strategic "Westernness" of Turkey is enough. How Turkey's Western partners deal with these issues and whether they will spend the necessary time and energy to manage their relationships with Turkey may have as much, if not more, of an impact on how Turkey ultimately develops.

While simultaneously reacting to the conflict between Israel and Hamas and conducting another wave of arrests in the Ergenekon case, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s prime minister, suddenly appointed Egemen Baðýþ as Turkey’s chief EU negotiator. Time will tell if this indicates a rekindling of the EU accession process after nearly three years of lethargy and growing political and public disinterest.

In the Turkish-Armenian relationship, history is being used as a political weapon to settle scores. Turkey has shown great progress on the path toward reconciliation, but there are two more steps the Turkish government could take to warm the relationship once and for all.

Geopolitical realities seem to have once more elevated Turkey's importance in American foreign policy decisions. In the past, Turkey's strategic importance and America's reliance on it had an inverse relationship to the deepening of Turkish democracy.

Unlike the rest of the world, where the word "turmoil" would immediately bring to mind the financial crisis that is terminating an era of financial sector and neoliberal ideological domination in economic affairs, in Turkey, "turmoil" these days means the serially erupting corruption cases and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's personal declaration of war against media tycoon Aydın Doğan and his multi-business empire. The war's true meaning, however, has gone beyond the confines of an Erdoğan-Doğan war. It has brought to light the unhealthy, corroding pattern of relations between media and political power, the hidden and obvious costs of a non-transparent, non-accountable system of patronage, and the frightful distance between EU and Turkish criteria on freedom of expression.

Many of the developments that shake the world happen around Turkey, most notably Iraq, Iran, and Georgia. Both the Turkish state and nation feel the effects of political and military developments in the regions surrounding the country and the importance of the transatlantic alliance will be further highlighted through Turkey. America and the European Union would be well advised to treat Turkey as a valued member of the alliance and communicate to the Turkish public their intentions and policies in a more direct and constructive fashion.

Turkey's Constitutional Court decision not to ban the AK Party, in spite of ten members being convinced that they were indeed guilty of some political wrongdoing, means that Turkey's political problems and its struggles for power will now have to be settled in the political realm, by the ballot box and not by extra-political means. In its own peculiar way, Turkey is clearing its own path toward becoming a better democracy and the thorny issue of Turkish secularism will need to be settled through political bargains and processes rather than judicial fiat.