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On Defense, France Bites the Bullet, But Avoids Strategic Insolvency May 7, 2013
Iceland’s Recovery Saga Presents Opportunities for Brussels, Washington—and Beijing May 6, 2013
Which Way Forward for Europe’s Hybrid Regimes? May 2, 2013
The Arab Revolts and the Liberal Order May 2, 2013
Events
GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
News & Analysis Archive
A Pakistani Election PrimerMay 09, 2013 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Pakistan's election is in fact taking place amid a low-grade civil war in which domestic terrorists are successfully targeting the political parties with the most liberal vision for the country's future. These parties are effectively unable to campaign, with the result that turnout of their supporters will be dramatically suppressed.From Crisis to CollapseMay 06, 2013 / Nicholas Siegel
Europe’s problems are mirrored on the national level: Regions like Catalonia are speaking up against transfer payments – and contemplate secession.The Huge Cost of India’s Discrimination Against WomenMarch 18, 2013 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Atlantic
Modern India somehow manages to be, at the same time, the land of Indira Gandhi and Mother Theresa and of child brides and dowry deaths.Denmark’s Unnecessary Clash of CivilizationsMarch 01, 2013 / Fabrizio Tassinari, Mona Kanwal SheikhCNN
Denmark is in the midst of a clash of civilizations and the perceived fight among some Danes is hardening the lines of conflict between Islam and the West.China’s Income Gap Solution: Too Little, Too Late?February 20, 2013 / Minxin PeiFORTUNE
Few would disagree that reducing China's disturbingly high level of income inequality is one of the most difficult but critical challenges facing the nation's new leadership.
Italy at Crossroads—AgainFebruary 18, 2013 / Fabrizio Tassinari
A Conversation between Stefano Guzzini and Fabrizio Tassinari ahead of general election on 24-25 February. Five Ways China Could Become a DemocracyFebruary 13, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
Few have seriously thought about the probability and the various plausible scenarios of a regime transition in China -- until now.Neighbourhood Policy Paper Series Tackles Issues Affecting Black Sea RegionFebruary 11, 2013 / Slawomir Raszewski et al.CIES and BST
Paper series delves into a range of challenges that the Eastern neighborhood is facing.Unfinished Transitions: Challenges and Opportunities of the EU’s and Turkey’s Responses to the “Arab Spring”January 25, 2013 / Emiliano AlessandriIstituto Affari Internazionali
As the geopolitical implications of the Arab uprisings become clearer, the EU and Turkey should adopt a more lucid and nuanced
approach to democracy and a more explicitly political response to the “Arab Spring.”Economic Ties Can Save Africa’s Arab SpringJanuary 15, 2013 / Ghazi Ben Ahmed, Ellen Laipson Bloomberg
A version of the Marshall Plan for Arab Spring countries could spur economic recovery and lead to political stability.Minxin Pei: China’s Liberals Test Xi JinpingJanuary 09, 2013 / Minxin PeiWall Street Journal
The mini-crisis sparked by protest against ham-fisted censorship at a Chinese newspaper seems to have been temporarily defused. Global Trends 2030: Scenarios for Asia’s strategic futureDecember 11, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
What kind of role Asia will play in the world, and how it will relate to the United States and other Western powers, in turn will be determined by what form of regional order is operative in 2030. Global Trends 2030: Pathways for Asia’s Strategic FutureDecember 10, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Today the U.S. National Intelligence Council releases its Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worldsreport, authored by the NIC's resident thought leader and global futurist par excellence, Mat Burrows. Several of us in the Shadow Government stable contributed to the report in various ways over the past few years of its development .Global Swing States and European StrategyNovember 30, 2012 / Daniel M. Kliman, Richard Fontaine European Global Strategy
A new European Global Strategy must account for one of the most important geopolitical trends of the early 21st century: the growing influence of emerging market democracies in world affairs. Four rising powers – Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey – should receive special focus, for together they are key to adapting and renewing today’s international order.European Relief and JittersNovember 09, 2012 / Constanze StelzenmuellerInternational Herald Tribune
Americans and Europeans need each other now more than ever. And, frankly, it’s time for Europeans to step up and say: “Yes, we can, too.”Les Enjeux Diplomatiques Font ConsensusNovember 08, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLe Monde
GMF's Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer argues that Obama has redefined U.S. leadership and that Libya is a precursor of future military operations.Beijing fakes the good fight against its own corruptionNovember 05, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe National 
China is paying a huge price for its kleptocracy. Corruption has made its economy less efficient and more risky, inequality has worsened and the regime's legitimacy has dived.Why Beijing prefers ObamaNovember 05, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndia Express
The tight U.S. presidential race has raised anxieties around about the future of American foreign policy. Nowhere is the level of uncertainty and fear higher than in Beijing.A Tale of Two SuperpowersNovember 04, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Deccan Chronicle
The transparency and participatory nature of the U.S. presidential elections is a critical aspect of comprehensive national power that Beijing – in its current state – will always find wanting.China’s Troubled BourbonsOctober 31, 2012 / Minxin PeiProject Syndicate
Sometimes the books that a country’s top leaders read can reveal a lot about what they are thinking.Democracy can Make China a Great PowerOctober 29, 2012 / Daniel TwiningFinancial Times
As China undergoes its once-a-decade political transition, Chinese and westerners alike wonder whether its new leaders will put the country on a path to openness and transparency. This is morally desirable. Pavol Demes’ “A Collective Portrait,” tells the story of US contribution to Slovakian Civil SocietyOctober 26, 2012 / Pavol DemešNew Book
New book details U.S. support to the development of civil society in Slovakia from the Velvet Revolution and the fall of Communism.Sorry World: What Happens in Beijing, WON’T Stay in BeijingOctober 22, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
While many have feared its rise, a weaker China struggling with economic and political challenges at home may present an even greater challenge.More women in the workforce to sustain “Made in Germany”October 16, 2012 / Sudha David-WilpGlobal Post
Paying women to provide child care at home is discouraging women from working.Is China’s Communist Party Doomed?October 01, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
Could Beijing's ruling elite succumb to the same fate as those in the former Soviet Union? Perhaps.Don’t give up on IndiaSeptember 21, 2012 / Daniel Twining, Richard FontaineThe Washington Post
India has represented Washington’s major strategic bet in Asia. Was this bet misguided?
Xi Jinping’s Reappearance Points to Leadership WoesSeptember 18, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe National 
The presumptive next leader of China, has resurfaced after nearly two weeks out of public sight. What will the implications be for Chinese politics?Underground, but Not BuriedSeptember 17, 2012 / Joerg Forbrig
The saga of Charter ’97 says much of the dedication of Lukashenka's opponents as well as the misguided support of the West.Eleven Years After 9/11, Afghanistan Still MattersSeptember 11, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe New York Times 
The war in Afghanistan has become largely invisible in Washington.The silence is particularly noticeable on the presidential campaign trail.China in the Eye of the BeholderAugust 27, 2012 / Minxin PeiProject Syndicate
One of the most glaring, if unremarked, oddities concerning China nowadays is how perceptions of its leaders diverge depending on the observer. Why civil servants hold the key to Afghan prosperityAugust 17, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN
Kabul's struggle to find competent replacements following the ouster of Karzai's two prominent ministers highlights deeper problems with Afghan politics that reveal the absence of Afghan civil service.Is the American Dream Over?August 10, 2012 / Martin MichelotAtlantico.fr
Generation Y has been hardest hit by the economic crisis, which has prompted observers to wonder whether the American Dream as we know it is over.Where Winning is EverythingAugust 09, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndian Express
Winning Olympic medals, like clocking the speed of economic growth, adds gloss to the image of the ruling Chinese Communist Party.Why the EU must counter Belarus’ latest provocationAugust 09, 2012 / Joerg ForbrigEU Observer
President Lukashenko's recent explulsion of the Swedish ambassador has handed the EU an opportunity to drive a more effective policy towards Belarus. The EU must seize this moment.What China’s Leaders Fear MostJuly 30, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
How the powerful lose power and what happens to them afterwards can tell us a great deal about the nature of the political regime in which they thrive and perish.Party and the PatriotJuly 21, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndian Express
It has become clear that the relationship between nationalism and democracy is most likely determined by a specific national context, but is Chinese nationalism bad for democracy?
The Chinese AwakeningJuly 20, 2012 / Minxin PeiWall Street Journal Asia
Like a share listed on an exchange, the world's perception of China fluctuates as foreigners go from bullish to bearish. One gauge of how the country's image is faring is the latest crop of China books. Moving Too Fast on Burma: Obama Breaks with Aung San Suu KyiJuly 16, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The Obama administration's decision to lift the U.S. investment ban on Burma is the first time Washington has publicly broken with the country's democratic opposition since Burma's fragile but consequential political opening began several years ago.
U.S. Is Moving Too Fast on BurmaJuly 15, 2012 / Michael J. Green, Daniel TwiningWashington Post
Lifting elements of the Burma investment ban is a sensible part of U.S. strategy, but it must create greater economic and political space outside the regime's control.
Survival Guide for One-Party RegimesJuly 10, 2012 / Minxin PeiSouth China Morning Post
The return of the PRI to power through a democratic process should encourage the Chinese Communist Party to think outside the box and start a process of political transformation.
Afghanistan’s Political Crisis: A Short-term solutionJuly 10, 2012 / Javid AhmadForeign Policy
Politics in Afghanistan is broken, just as the country finds itself juggling multiple political and security challenges. Among the most pressing is ensuring a smooth political transition of power by 2014. Unfortunately, with Kabul torn apart by infighting and factionalism, the prospects of succeeding are bleak. In the absence of alternative mechanisms, one way of commanding greater political legitimacy would be the convening of a Loya Jirga.
The End Of China’s Economic MiracleJuly 09, 2012 / Minxin PeiDaily Beast
Twenty years ago, Japan experienced the humiliation of going from world economic champ to chump within a few years of its financial meltdown. Today it seems to be China’s turn.
Advantage India: Why China Will Lose the Contest for Global InfluenceJuly 02, 2012 / Daniel M. KlimanGlobalAsia
Many see China’s authoritarian government as an asset in its rise up the economic ladder, but India’s more open and transparent democracy gives it the edge when it comes to becoming a global power, writes Daniel M. Kliman.
China: The Invisible Dragon in the RoomJune 06, 2012 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
At last weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue, China did much to bear out James Joyce’s maxim that absence is the highest form of presence. In deciding not to send their defense minister and offering only an elliptical justification, China made itself the subject of even greater speculation and theorizing than usual.
The Liberal Order and the Chinese PublicJune 05, 2012 / Andrew SmallGlobal Trends 2030
In thinking about which powers will sustain – or threaten – the liberal order, China is typically written off as a spoiler. But as China’s public assumes greater influence over its foreign policy in the years ahead, this should not be taken for granted.
Why the Liberal Order Will Survive in a Post-Western WorldMay 31, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarGT2030.com
Predicting the decline of the liberal order (often inextricably linked to narratives about the future of democracy, liberalism, free markets, peace, and global institutions) is an age-old pastime. But, first drafts of history are often destined for the rubbish bin.
China’s Challenge to the Liberal Order, India’s Attraction to It, and the Possibilities for Western Revitalization in Light of the Global Embrace of Democratic NormsMay 29, 2012 / Stephen Szabo
The growing role of China is clearly the most significant challenge to the liberal international order to emerge since the shaping of the Bretton Woods institutions.
What Fate for Liberal Order in a Post-Western World?May 27, 2012 / Daniel TwiningGT2030.com
Over the next two decades, the relative power of major international actors will shift markedly. The NIC's draft Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds maps out three broad scenarios for how will the rise of the rest impact the international system.
How a German state election affects EuropeMay 11, 2012 / Sudha David-WilpCNN.com
Germany's electoral map has many colors in comparison to the red and blue of America, yet on both sides of the Atlantic, battleground state elections can portend change on the national level.
The Lid Cracks Open on Beijing’s Black BoxMay 09, 2012 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Real Clear World
After a long period of stasis, Chinese politics have entered a dramatic new phase. While no one expects major change to arrive quickly, the previous sense of inevitability about China’s internal trajectory is beginning to give way to growing unpredictability. For a long time, the animating China challenge for policymakers in the United States and Europe had been the integration of a rapidly rising power into the global economic and security order. Now they will need to do that while navigating a nation in political transition.China, the Euro Crisis and Transatlantic CooperationMay 02, 2012 / Andrew Small
In this testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Andrew Small explains that, despite the euro crisis, the European Union has been toughening up its stance in its economic relationship with China. For the United States, the opportunities to coordinate with the EU on economic policy responses loom larger than the risks that Europe’s need for Chinese money will act as a constraint.
A Victory for EU Diplomacy in BelarusApril 20, 2012 / Joerg ForbrigWall Street Journal Europe
Mounting pressure from Brussels scores a victory against the Lukashenko regime.U.S.-Europe-Asia: The New Strategic TriangleApril 16, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Despite claims that the U.S. "pivot" to Asia means a move away from Europe, there are enormous opportunities for the Atlantic allies to work together in a structured, systematic way in rising Asia on key issues like Burma, China, institution building and security.
What the EU should do to end state terror in BelarusMarch 22, 2012 / Joerg Forbrig, David J. KramerEU Observer
True to his image as Europe's last dictator, Belarus' Alexander Lukashenko has just added two more crimes to a long list of repressions against his own people.
Will Europe Lose its East?March 20, 2012 / Joerg ForbrigNeue Zürcher Zeitung
Largely unnoticed by European politics and publics, a new division looms in the East of the continent.
The Chinese Military’s Great Leap ForwardMarch 07, 2012 / Daniel TwiningTransatlantic Take
China’s announcement of a more than 11 percent increase in declared military spending — following two full decades of double-digit increases — raises several uncomfortable questions for Asia and the West.
A Useful Clash With BelarusMarch 01, 2012 / Joerg Forbrig
Many in Belarus and abroad are scratching their heads and asking what prompted Lukashenko to go ballistic. Whatever the reason, Europe should take advantage of the opportunity Lukashenko has handed it and push for change.
Turkey’s Vision for 2012 and Beyond: Davutoglu’s Washington VisitFebruary 17, 2012 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post
Davutoğlu's 2012 visit to Washington once again showcased Turkey's self-confidence as a rising regional power and vision for its neighborhood.
A China policy primer for Xi Jinping’s visitFebruary 14, 2012 / Daniel Twining
In Washington's internal debates over China policy, several schools of thought are vying for primacy. America's Sinologists should have a little more confidence that the United States can compete with China, not only in the contest for power but in the contest of ideas.
American Elections at a Time of Crisis: The Risks of IntrospectionJanuary 30, 2012 / Emiliano AlessandriAspen Institute Italy
Failing to see the global stakes of the next Presidential elections will be at America’s and the world’s peril.
The Last Kim of Pyongyang?January 19, 2012 / Daniel M. KlimanForeign Policy Magazine
It's not ridiculous to think that North Korea could take a page from Myanmar and make a shocking U-turn toward democracy.
Ivan Vejvoda Testifies on Balkans and the 2012 NATO SummitJanuary 18, 2012 / Ivan VejvodaUnited States Senate Testimony
In testimony before the U.S. Helsinki Commission, GMF's Ivan Vejvoda highlighted the progress made in security and democratization in the Balkans and called for Macedonia and Montenegro membership at the Chicago NATO Summit.
(Why) Should America Abandon Taiwan?January 10, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
A gathering debate is underway in Washington over whether Taiwan is a spoiler, rather than a partner, in America's Asia strategy as President Obama continues the efforts of Presidents Bush and Clinton to "pivot" towards the region.
A Belarussian Dream (video)December 19, 2011 / Daniel Twining
Marking the first anniversary of presidential elections in Belarus and the subsequent state terror against peaceful protesters, the film "A Belarussian Dream" provides a sobering account of life in Europe’s last dictatorship.
A Testimony to Freedom: Andrei Sannikov, Belarus (video)December 19, 2011 / Andrei Sannikov
Stability in the Balkans may become the next victim of the euro crisis.
One of the best things U.S. policy in Asia can do is encourage democratic transition and consolidation in the region, creating political bulwarks against threats to the existing balance of power - which is also, in important respects, a balance of values.Rocky Road to DamascusNovember 16, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
No country is ever immune to charges of double standards in its foreign policy, and the Arab Awakening has exposed many contradictions in rhetoric and and behaviour....
State of Affairs in the BalkansNovember 15, 2011 / Ivan Vejvoda
In his testimony before the U.S. House Committee on Foreign Affairs, GMF Vice President for Programs Ivan Vejvoda outlines the progress made and challenges ahead for Balkan nations...
Hanging Between Hope and Fear: Italians at the Heart of International CrisisOctober 25, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriIstituto Affari Internazionali
Italy’s public opinion seems more open and daring of its political elites on some hot issues of the international agenda. Although increasingly concerned about the economic context and for the future of the European integration process, Italians seems rather optimist about stabilizing the situation in Libya and strongly in favor of promoting democracy in the Arab world, even if this entails the risk of greater short-term instability.
India’s Arab Spring OpportunityAugust 24, 2011 / Daniel Twining, Richard FontaineThe Diplomat
In recognition of its growing global role and its status as the world’s largest democracy, India can play a unique role in supporting the democratic forces that have produced the Arab Spring. As demands for democratic change swell from Benghazi to Beijing, India’s liberal system gives it a unique strategic advantage that New Delhi should seize.
Europe’s far-right problemJuly 26, 2011 / Joerg ForbrigCNN Blog
As the immediate shock and mourning from the Oslo attacks subside, many ask for the possible reasons behind the attack. Their search, in Norway and across Europe, has quickly zoomed in on an issue that challenges the entire continent: the rise of the far right.
Belarus: No more Maneuvering between the EU and RussiaJune 13, 2011 / Joerg Forbrig
The December 19, 2010 presidential elections in Belarus have, more than any other recent event, put the complicated position of the country between the EU and Russia in the spotlight. The poll hardly differed, in process and result, from earlier elections in 2001 and 2006.Lukashenka – What are the prospects for spring in Belarus?June 09, 2011 / Joerg ForbrigopenDemocracyCaptivated by the upheavals facing Arab autocrats, few in the West have noticed the troubles of another dictator, this time on Europe's very doorstep -- Belarus' Alexander Lukashenka.Turkey’s Global StrategyJune 07, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri, Joshua W. WalkerLSE
After nearly a decade in power, Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has grown increasingly confident in its foreign policy, prompting observers to wondered aloud whether the country might be leaving "the West," forcing that group to confront the question "who lost Turkey?"
What Makes a Country Great?June 06, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
A new rating system compares more than gross domestic product, and it suggests that the U.S. lags many of its peers on health, education, and personal fulfillment. By Bruce StokesObama’s crucial moment in PolandMay 26, 2011 / Ivan Vejvoda
President Obama’s visit to Europe this week is giving him the opportunity to bury once and for all perceptions that have dogged his administration from the outset: that the United States has lost interest in Europe, and has put a higher priority on resetting relations with an authoritarian Russia than it has on the completion of a Europe whole, free, and at peace. Turkey’s Future Reforms and the European UnionMay 24, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriTurkish Policy Quarterly
The European Union (EU) has played a critical role in Turkey’s reform process since the end of the Cold War but over time it has become less central a factor in Turkey’s internal transformation. The goals of “Europeanization” and “democratization” are no longer fully intertwined and the ruling elite seems to be focused on power consolidation just as much as on democratic consolidation. A fresh wind from the PacificMay 12, 2011 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice
With a U.S. Congressional vote on trade deals with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama now almost inevitable, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is rapidly making a priority of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, a free-trade agreement involving the United States, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.Refugee crisis: the end of Europe without borders?May 06, 2011 / Francois Lafond
François Lafond, Director of the German Marshall Fund (Paris Office), participates in a debate on the migration related consequences of the Arab Spring.Iran and Turkey After Egypt: Time for Regional Realignments?April 19, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri
Both Iran and Turkey have a major stake in how the political landscape in North Africa and the Middle East is reshaped in the months ahead. While regional uprisings (with the possible exception of a resurgence of Kurdish separatism) do not necessarily threaten the stability of the Turkish state, Iran is experiencing its own waves of protests.Understanding The Arab and Mediterranean RevolutionsApril 12, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri
Well before the recent unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, GMF has been a leader in conducting and disseminating research and analysis on Mediterranean political, economic, and security issues. The White House’s three worst assumptions on LibyaMarch 21, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriForeign Policy
Now that the United States has joined the French and British in attacking Qaddafi's forces in Libya, Will Inboden suggests the Obama administration merits support. However, he admits it might have now come too late.The Turkish model tested by the Arab RevolutionsMarch 20, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriAffarinternazionali.it
GMF's Emiliano Alessandri suggests that while Turkey can be a source of inspiration for the reform movements in the Arab world, regional leadership emanating from Ankara might not be the logical consequence of democratization in the region.What we learned from the Security Council debate over LibyaMarch 18, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The United Nations Security Council voted to authorize military intervention to protect the Libyan people from the depredations of Colonel Qaddafi's rule. What have we learned from the debate over the resolution and its outcome?
Francois Lafond on Unrest in EgyptMarch 11, 2011 / Francois LafondFrance 24
François Lafond participates in debate on the recent turmoil in Egypt and the Arab world, and on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 2011 Munich Conference remarks.
The Pakistan ParallelFebruary 21, 2011 / Daniel TwiningWeekly Standard
Why has the Obama administration been so tepid in its support for the biggest popular revolution in the modern Arab world? The short answer is Washington’s fear that a vacuum left by President Mubarak’s departure will be filled by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.
How trade could help a post-Mubarak Egypt succeedFebruary 10, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
The fate of the Egyptian government remains unclear, but one thing is certain: The country's economy is the immediate casualty.Embrace Egypt’s protestersFebruary 03, 2011 / Lamis Khalilova
Freedom, change and social equity were demands that resonated across the world, when hundreds of thousands of Egyptian protesters took to the streets demanding an end to Hosni Mubarak's regime.Mideast Protests Drive Up Oil, Threaten RecoveryFebruary 01, 2011 / Bruce StokesFiscal Times
With oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel on Monday, thanks to growing uncertainty about stability in the Middle East, the somewhat distant, feel-good, democracy-awakening story coming out of Egypt suddenly took on a more ominous, economic tone that could hit Americans where it hurts most — their wallets.Time to hit Lukashenko where it hurtsJanuary 31, 2011 / Joerg Forbrig
Following December’s fraudulent election, a brutal crackdown has only added further misery to Belarus’s beleaguered democratic opposition, civil society and media. In response, EU ministers were on Monday expected to back a new travel ban and asset freeze against Alexander Lukashenko, the country’s dictator, and more than 150 of his henchmen.Crackdown in Belarus: Responding to the Lukashenko RegimeJanuary 27, 2011 / Joerg Forbrig
Read Natayla Kolaida's testimony to the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on the recent elections in Belarus here.Political reform: China’s next modernization?January 13, 2011 / Daniel TwiningWashington Post
China boasts the world's second-largest economy, delivering double-digit economic growth on a seemingly permanent basis. As President Hu Jintao prepares to visit Washington next week, his country's model of authoritarian development looks unstoppable - with troubling implications for American primacy in world affairs.
Reversing Course on BelarusJanuary 10, 2011 / Joerg ForbrigThe New York TimesE.U. policy toward Belarus is in tatters. Two years of engagement with Alexander Lukashenko’s regime, direct cooperation in the framework of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership program, and gentle pressure to allow some space for democrats in the country came to naught on Dec. 19, when the police crushed a courageous mass protest against fraudulent elections.Fostering a Free AzerbaijanDecember 29, 2010 / Joerg ForbrigWashington Post
Ten years ago this month, a young American civilian working for democracy in Azerbaijan was brutally murdered in the former Soviet republic's capital. The stabbing of John Alvis raised little public attention. A decade later, his death remains a crime deemed unsolved by the FBI.Herald a new orderDecember 21, 2010 / Daniel TwiningHindustan Times
United States President Barack Obama accomplished three important things during his visit to India last month. He put to bed a notion that held sway earlier in his administration that a US-China 'G2' could jointly manage Asia and the world.
Belarus Elections Cause ChaosDecember 20, 2010 / Daniel Twining
Hundreds of people, including several presidential candidates, have been arrested in Belarus for protesting against the announced results of the country’s recent presidential elections.U.S.-India Relations: From Vision to ProcessNovember 18, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarAsia Pacific Bulletin
Barack Obama’s first visit to India as U.S. president was a welcome tonic for ties between the world’s two largest democratic powers, correcting early missteps by his administration.Are U.S.-India relations oversold?November 12, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The biggest disappointment of President Barack Obama's Asia trip was his failure to strike an agreement on the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement in Seoul. His biggest success was his embrace of a transformative partnership with India. The president can now claim ownership of a relationship that has been on the rocks since he took office.
For an Indo-American CenturyNovember 06, 2010 / Daniel TwiningIndian Express
President Obama’s trip to New Delhi and Mumbai should solidify a partnership that could shape the 21st century the way the Atlantic alliance shaped the 20th.
America’s silence makes us complicit in Russia’s crimesSeptember 20, 2010 / Daniel TwiningWashington PostWhat will it take for higher levels of the Obama administration to unequivocally condemn arrests of activists, violence against protesters, pressure on journalists, and murders of government critics in Russia?Search for Plan BSeptember 03, 2010 / Bruce Stokes
The image of U.S. helicopters airlifting Americans from Saigon rooftops in 1975 continues to haunt U.S. policy makers 35 years later as they grope for an exit from Afghanistan. With parliamentary elections scheduled for September 18 and the drawdown of U.S. forces in the country slated to begin by mid-2011, the debate about a Plan B for Afghanistan has begun in earnest.Walk, But Learn to Chew Gum, TooAugust 10, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerHeinrich Boell Foundation
The Russo-Georgian war was a defining moment for the United States and Europe, showing the flaws of Western policy for the region. The challenge of crafting a coherent and effective policy for Eastern Europe remains unresolved on both sides of the Atlantic.Why India has mixed emotions about ObamaAugust 06, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
If this is truly to be a partnership of equals between the world's predominant power and its next democratic superpower, both New Delhi and Washington share a responsibility to propel it forward. If Obama's commitment to that process is less robust than that of his predecessors, all the more reason for India's leaders to step up theirs.
How to prevent another war in the Southern CaucasusJuly 03, 2010 / Daniel TwiningThe Washington PostAfter Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's recent visit, the Obama administration wants to prove it has a strategy to deepen ties with allies such as Poland while it pursues a reset with Russia, so it has sent Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on a whirlwind tour of Central and Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. The trip also seeks to blunt conservative criticism that Washington is sacrificing allies for the sake of reconciliation with Moscow.
‘A lack of fire in the belly,’ concludes Pakistan on Obama’s war strategyJune 25, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
No matter how talented General David Petraeus proves to be commanding American and NATO forces, it is hard to see how our Afghan strategy can be successful absent a strategic reorientation by the Obama administration that creates a different calculus for leaders in Kabul and Rawalpindi (headquarters of the Pakistani armed forces) with regard to the Afghan endgame.
Modernizing Russia’s Economy… and PoliticsJune 24, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyU.S. policymakers for years have lamented their lack of leverage in pushing for democratic reform and respect for human rights in Russia. Well, now we may have an opportunity, but the question is whether we will make use of it. If Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is serious in wanting our help with his economic modernization agenda, we should insist that he needs to make measurable progress in political liberalization first.Twenty Years of Western Democracy Assistance in Central and Eastern EuropeJune 15, 2010 / Pavol DemešIDEA
Before the European Union and its allies can effectively promote democracy in other countries, they need to address the internal problems brought on by the global economic crisis, from which they have not yet fully recovered. Democracy assistance needs to be tailored to the specific needs and expectations of each country and handled with tact and with respect for local democracy activists. Donor countries also need to be aware of ways that pursuing their own economic or security goals can tarnish their democratic credibility. Despite all these challenges, recent history has provided ample evidence that the human spirit and solidarity can overcome even the direst obstacles and may be our strongest resource in the quest for democracy and cooperation in Europe and beyond.The implications of Hatoyama’s downfall for the U.S.-Japan allianceJune 02, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
A new year, another new Japanese prime minister. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's resignation makes him the fourth Japanese leader in four years to fall from power. What are the implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance?
Helping Obama Close Guantanamo is in Europe’s InterestApril 24, 2010 / Niels AnnenWith a record approval rating of 88% in Germany, President Barak Obama shouldn't be too much concerned about his plea to Europeans to help him close the detention Camp Guantanamo at the US base in Cuba. But sympathy alone does not lead to a new policy. Obama is learning this the hard way. And Europeans may miss a unique opportunity to influence the way in which the US is going to deal with terrorists in the future.” A normal President” – Barack Obama, one year into his PresidencyApril 20, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff" A normal President" - Barack Obama, one year into his Presidency (German Language - in "Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte"American silence while Kyrgyzstan burnedApril 14, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffForeign PolicyNothing sums up U.S. policy toward Kyrgyzstan than these contrasting images: at the same time that thousands of Kyrgyz were taking to the streets protesting against their corrupt authoritarian leader, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Bakiyev's son, Maksim, was arriving in Washington for consultations with U.S. officials. While Kyrgyzstan literally was burning, U.S. officials were prepared for business-as-usual talks with Maksim, who, like his father, has been accused of engaging in massive corruption and human rights abuses.Obama’s Victory Lap in PragueApril 05, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffForeign PolicyThanks to his personal intervention in ironing out final sticking points, Barack Obama is heading to Prague in a few days to sign a new arms control treaty with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. When the glow wears off, the hard work of winning ratification will get started in the U.S. Senate, where tough questioning can be expected from many Republicans.Foundations and post-Lisbon EuropeApril 01, 2010 / Pavol DemešEffect MagazineThe end of last year was marked by two overlapping historical moments -- the celebrations of the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, which led to a profound rearrangement of the European continent, and the anxiety-filled end of the complicated eight-year process to bring about badly-needed constitutional reforms of the EU. After the second Irish referendum, and the Czech Republic finally coming on board, the Lisbon Treaty came into power on December 1, 2009. It is believed that this Treaty will transform Europe into a more unified and influential global player with the capacity to make Europeans more secure and prosperous.Good NeighborsMarch 29, 2010 / Jörg HimmelreichInternationale PolitikFor decades, suspicion and outright animosity characterized relations between Turkey and its neighbors. The country's allies were to be found only in the West. Recently, however, the Turkish government has managed to implement a foreign policy shift of historic, even revolutionary proportions. Brussels should put to use the opportunities resulting from Turkey's international realignment.Merkel wird den Frust der Türken spürenMarch 28, 2010 / Niels Annen, Thomas StraubhaarDie WeltThe EU needs an economically prosperous and politically strong Turkey. Therefore, the EU should search for ways to remove the blockades that characterize the ongoing negotiations for a EU membership of Turkey.The Revolution is Dead. Long Live the Revolution.February 08, 2010 / Niels Annen, Thomas StraubhaarForeign PolicyUkrainian opposition leader Viktor Yanukovych's apparent victory in yesterday's presidential election over Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko -- at last count, he had about a 3 percent lead and was pushing Tymoshenko to concede -- has many observers ready to proclaim the death of the Orange Revolution. Indeed, the revolution's hero, Viktor Yushchenko, got less than 6 percent of the vote last month in the election's first round. If his prime minister, Tymoshenko, loses too, the election will certainly mark a reverse-changing of the guard. This year's victor, Yanukovych, was the very leader ousted after hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians took to the streets of Kiev in chilly November and December, 2004.Dealing With a More Assertive ChinaFebruary 08, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Al Jazeera; Forbes; The Diplomat; RealClearWorld; Foreign Policy; The Atlantic Community
The mood on China in Western capitals is beginning to darken. From cyber-attacks to obstinacy in Copenhagen, Beijing's assertiveness and the hardening tone of its diplomacy are prompting a rethink. If the competitive aspects of the relationship with China are going to dominate in the years ahead, have the United States and Europe got their strategies right? And if not, what are the options?A Social Democrat Wins In Croatia – And The Balkans Move ForwardJanuary 22, 2010 / Ivan VejvodaTirana Times
The landslide victory of Ivo Josipovic in the January 10 presidential elections in Croatia bodes well, not just for the country, but also for the Western Balkans as a whole -- not least for the region’s hopes for membership in the European Union.
Russia’s ‘sphere’ in EuropeDecember 26, 2009 / Ivan VejvodaThe Washington PostAs Washington and Moscow zero in on a new strategic arms control treaty, it is time to look at what lies ahead in U.S.-Russian relations. The greatest gap between Western and Russian thinking today may not be on Afghanistan or Iran. It may well be on Europe.Resetting U.S. Russian Relations: It Takes TwoDecember 16, 2009 / Ivan VejvodaWashington QuarterlyPresident Barack Obama deserves credit for his initial efforts to reverse the deterioration in relations between the United States and Russia. The downward spiral in bilateral ties accelerated by Russia's invasion of Georgia last year has ended for now, but relations are not likely to improve appreciably because of fundamental differences in values, interests, and outlook between the two countries' leaderships.The role of think tanks in shaping EU policiesDecember 16, 2009 / Pavol DemešEurope's WorldThere are various institutions on the Old continent which employ highly educated people to think about our societies and to study social, political, economic and environmental issues. Traditionally, universities and later academies of science and research institutes, attracted smart people whose role was to develop new thinking about human affairs and to explain to power-holders and the public what is really going on in our societies and what is likely to happen in the future.Clinton on human rights: digging out of a holeDecember 15, 2009 / Pavol DemešForeign PolicyU.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in her speech on Monday at Georgetown University on "The Human Rights Agenda for the 21st Century," finally grabbed a shovel and started digging out of the hole she had placed herself in on this very issue. With some exceptions, her speech sounded familiar: Many of the passages could just as easily have been delivered by a senior Bush administration official.
When it comes to Honduras, it’s time to leave the Zelaya debacle in the pastDecember 09, 2009 / David J. Kramer
Last week was a very good week for the people of Honduras. On Sunday Nov. 29, Hondurans went to the polls to choose their next president in an election that passed the "free and fair" test of observers on the ground (myself included). Three days later on Dec. 2, Honduran legislators rejected a return to the past, defeating a motion to restore the ousted and disgraced leader, Manuel Zelaya, for the remaining two months of his term.
U.S. Expectations of Germany After the Election: A Highway to Hell or a Stairway to HeavenDecember 01, 2009 / David J. KramerAmerican Institute for Contemporary German StudiesThe recent German election presents real opportunity for the German-American relationship, but that opportunity will be bounded by both the harsh realities of the challenges both countries face in 2009 and beyond.
Analyze DasNovember 01, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerThe American InterestNinety years after 1919, seventy years after 1939, twenty years after 1989: Could it be it time for Germany to declare normalcy, for Germans to stop obsessing about their history and start living in the present? After all, we Germans have accomplished what is today broadly reckoned to be an honorable and complete accounting of the guilt amassed in the Holocaust and two world wars (admittedly, with some early prodding from outside, including the Nuremberg Tribunal and the Eichmann trial).
"Normal" tends not to be an adjective that individuals or nations cherish for themselves. Who wants to be merely normal, average or typical when one can be exceptional or superior? Germans do, and it is not hard to understand why. As a united polity only since 1870, Germany's bloody odyssey from the Franco-Prussian War to World War I, revolution, depression, Hitler, World War II, the Holocaust, and a country divided into two diametrically opposed political systems defines its historic "normalcy." At least for Germans born after World War II, normal meant being deviant, subject to a kind of metaphysical disfigurement, symbolized in concrete by the hideous wall sprawled across Berlin. Thus to be genuinely normal meant Germany must divorce itself from its own history, an abnormal enterprise-and so a problem of another sort. To what extent has Germany achieved this divorce and solved this problem?
Clinton in Moscow: A mixed bagOctober 16, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign PolicySecretary of State Hillary Clinton came away from her visit to Moscow this week with mixed results. The two big ticket items involved Iran and the human rights situation inside Russia.
Angela Merkel: The World’s Most Powerful Woman?August 23, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerYou're a woman: that's nice, it does make a cabinet meeting look better these days. You have the brains, experience and b... er, guts for a top-echelon political job? Good, good. And you're - German. Oh dear. In politics (make that: in the workplace), German women remain about a decade behind their American, French or British counterparts. America, Sweden, Spain, Norway and Turkey, to name a few, have all had or currently have women as national security advisers, foreign ministers, defence ministers. Germany has had none of the above. You grew up in East Germany? (Pregnant pause.) You do realise that very few of you have made it into top politics at all since 1989, and most have disappeared again without a trace?An Indian election primerApril 16, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign PolicyThe Indian elections beginning today will be the largest organized activity in human history (always true of Indian elections given the country's growing population). As many as 714 million eligible voters will be marking ballots for a new Indian parliament that will convene in June.What we learned from Pakistan’s recent political crisisMarch 17, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyPakistan's political crisis of last weekend was precipitated by opposition leader Nawaz Sharif's pledge to march on Islamabad in support of freedom of the judiciary after both Nawaz and his brother Shahbaz, who had been chief minister of Punjab province, were disqualified by Musharraf-era Supreme Court justices from holding elected office.
A New NATO BargainMarch 06, 2009 / Daniel TwiningThe Wall Street Journal EuropeHillary Clinton made her debut yesterday at a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels and today holds her first meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva. Coming a month before Barack Obama's inaugural presidential trip to Europe and a NATO summit, this is a chance to hit the reset button not only with Russia but with America's closest European allies.Germany’s Russia Question: A New Ostpolitik for EuropeMarch 03, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign AffairsNow that Obama is president, will Germany respond to the call and join the United States as a key European partner in addressing global challenges and threats? Is Germany able and willing to use its considerable political resources to change Russia's behavior and to stand up to Moscow when necessary?Don’t move the goalposts on AfghanistanJanuary 28, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyIf Iraq was "Bush's War," Afghanistan may well become "Obama's War." But as the New York Times reports today, the Obama administration is attempting to shift the goalposts in Afghanistan away from building a functioning democracy and toward the limited objective of denying terrorists sanctuary on Afghan soil.Who knew lunches would lead to gridlock?November 20, 2008 / Robert G. LiberatorePoliticoAs President-elect Barack Obama considers moving his agenda in a new atmosphere of bipartisanship, it is useful to reflect on the role weekly party caucus luncheons have played in the modern party-driven Senate, the institution that threatens Obama's agenda with partisan filibuster.Unconventional MeasuresOctober 01, 2008 / Michael WerzKommuneIf only the impressions counted that were produced during the Democratic convention in Denver, Barack Obama would have won the lections already. But Optimism alone does not secure victory. The return to old formula to which John McCain's campaigns intends to score is also blocked. Never before the American minorities have been such an important part of the Presidential election. The full article is available in German for download below:An Election for the 21st CenturySeptember 18, 2008 / Michael WerzItalianieuropeiAn analysis of the U.S. Election, written in Italian for Italianieuropei, the Foundation of Political Culture in Rome, Italy.Europeans and Americans: Why Europe prefers Obama to McCainSeptember 10, 2008 / Francois LafondAffari Internazionali2007-08 has been a time of changes and mutation. Sen. Barack Obama's trip to Europe gave us an appetizer of a potential new era of cooperation between U.S. and European countries. One cycle will end, but we still do not know who will be in charge of writing the new one. Data from the last seven years of Transatlantic Trends can help us understand where we are and perhaps where we are going.
Obama’s European trip pays offJuly 25, 2008 / Michael WerzTages-AnzeigerGMF Transatlantic Fellow Michael Werz examines the odd choice by Obama to campaign for America's presidency from abroad and the success with which it was received by the people of Berlin. This interview is in German.La Europa balcánicaJuly 24, 2008 / Ivan VejvodaLa Razón DigitalIvan Vejvoda, Executive Director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, discusses the recent capture of former Bosnian-Serb leader Radovan Karadzic. The article is written in Spanish.EU-US scholar: Obama may not be the easy partner Europe hopes forJuly 23, 2008 / Francois LafondEurActive.comAmid their 'Obamania', Europeans tend to overlook that on certain issues like trade, a President Obama pressured by a Democrat-led Congress could be a more difficult partner in pushing for a common agenda, Francois Lafond of the German Marshall Fund told EurActiv in an interview.Democracy and a Piece of ClothingJuly 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffPostGlobal, Washington PostFrance has rejected a citizenship application from a burqa-wearing Moroccan woman on the grounds that she has "insufficiently assimilated" to French culture. Should cultural assimilation be a requirement for citizenshipA War The West Must StopJuly 15, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe Washington PostThere is war in the air between Georgia and Russia. Such a war could destabilize a region critical for Western energy supplies and ruin relations between Russia and the West. A conflict over Georgia could become an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. How they respond could become a test of the potential commander-in-chief qualities of Barack Obama and John McCain.“America, this is our Moment” – Barack Obama writes historyJuly 01, 2008 / Michael WerzKommuneNothing has been decided as of yet with regard to the new occupant of the White House. Nevertheless major changes have happened in US society already. When Barack Obama declared himself Democratic candidate for the Presidency on June 3rd in front of 17,000 enthusiastic supporters in St. Paul, Minnesota, American history seemed to take place in fast motion. The nomination of the first black candidate for the highest office evoked three centuries of American history and at the same time documented the astonishing path this nation has taken.Get involved over Georgia or invite a warJune 03, 2008 / Michael WerzFinancial TimesThe west could be sleepwalking into a war on the European continent. Georgia, which burst into view with a moving display of democratic ambition during the Rose Revolution of 2003, is teetering on the brink of war with Russia over the separatist Georgian enclave of Abkhazia. The outcome of this crisis will help determine the rules of the post-cold-war security system. But western diplomats are notsending strong enough signals to either side.
The End of the End of HistoryApril 22, 2008 / Robert KaganThe New RepublicGMF Transatlantic Fellow Robert Kagan gives five reasons as to why the twenty-first century will look like the nineteenth.
“Preventing the next Cold War” revisitedApril 21, 2008 / Andrew SmallDe Volkskrant
The war in Iraq may yet prove to have one lasting and little-noticed benefit: reducing the threat of a new cold war between the United States and China. The weakening of the U.S. global power position that the war induced has led officials in the second Bush administration to turn again and again to seek the support of the country that they labeled a strategic competitor only a few years earlier.
India’s relations with Iran and Myanmar: “Rogue state” or responsible democratic stakeholder?April 10, 2008 / Daniel TwiningIndia ReviewWhat kind of great power will India become as it rises in the twenty-first century? Indian foreign policy today embodies the contradictions and ambiguities stemming from India's ongoing evolution from a nonaligned, developing nation into one of the world's most powerful democracies. Democracy and American grand strategy in Asia: The realist principles behind an enduring idealismMarch 31, 2008 / Daniel Twining, Michael J. GreenContemporary Southeast AsiaHas democracy promotion been discredited as a central theme of American foreign policy after the US experience in Iraq? Many American critics and friends overseas appear to believe so. It would be wrong, however, to believe that the ideational approach of American foreign policy will diminish, particularly in Asia.
The Democrats in ’08: Clinton and Obama struggle between experience and changeFebruary 01, 2008 / Michael WerzKommuneSince World War II, the quarrels within the democratic party during the primaries have attracted attention because the party was known for destroying itself while trying to find a suitable candidate for the most important position in the world. Why, in the seemingly endless campaigns from 2007 and 2008, does everything appear to be different this time around? GMF Transatlantic Fellow Michael Werz explains the reasons in this article for Kommune.
German voters peek through the looking glassJanuary 25, 2008 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial TimesThe incumbent campaigning for re-election in this weekend's German election is one of his party's heavyweights, an ambitious and confident bruiser with a talent for scorching populist rhetoric. His challenger is a woman, a diffident speaker in a party with few women in top leadership positions; her peers would mostly have preferred another man as their candidate. It seemed an easy win for the incumbent. Now, polls show the race is too close to call.
The Baltic ModelJanuary 16, 2008 / Constanze StelzenmuellerWall Street JournalIt is difficult to recall today the West's hostility in the early 1990s toward Baltic membership in NATO and the European Union. At a time when even embracing Poland was controversial, the aspirations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were considered nutty if not outright dangerous. Moscow's reaction was even worse.Ukraine’s Second ChanceDecember 21, 2007 / Adrian KaratnyckyIf the Yushchenko-Tymoshenko team fails again, the Orange coalition's hold on power will prove tenuous. More importantly, corruption could reverse Ukraine's record of recent economic growth and even threaten its national security.Europe’s Eastern Promise: Rethinking NATO and EU EnlargementDecember 21, 2007 / Adrian KaratnyckyIn the early 1990s, after the Iron Curtain lifted, Western leaders seized a historic opportunity to open the doors of NATO and the European Union to post-communist central and eastern Europe. This accomplishment was the result of a common U.S.-European grand strategy that was controversial and fiercely debated at the time. However, Current policy toward Europe's periphery is increasingly out of date.
The U.S. Factor in Sino-European RelationsDecember 01, 2007 / Andrew SmallChina-EU: A Common Future
For Europe and China alike, the most important bilateral relationship is with the United States. Although often described as a ‘strategic triangle’, neither the Chinese impact on the transatlantic relationship nor Europe’s role in the Sino-US relationship is remotely comparable to the significance of the United States for the Sino-European relationship.Global trends, regional consequences: Wider strategic influences on the Black SeaNovember 27, 2007 / Ian LesserThe wider Black Sea area is rapidly becoming a focal point of interest for a number of extra-regional actors that can also be considered, in view of their active involvement, to be stakeholders. As Ian Lesser, the author of this new Xenophon Paper suggests, the Black Sea is strategically significant because it is an important part of the European security environment.Advice to Georgia on following path to democracyNovember 14, 2007 / Ian LesserFinancial TimesLast week’s declared state of emergency in Georgia came as a shock. The Rose Revolution’s democratic experiment in this small but strategically vital country seemed to dissolve in clouds of tear gas.Asia’s challenge to ChinaSeptember 25, 2007 / Daniel TwiningFinancial TimesAmerican economic weakness, Europe's uncertain political and demographic future, turmoil in the Middle East and challengers to western leadership from Moscow to Tehran may signal a new moment in world politics. It is characterised by the decline of free nations whose power and principles have shaped international society for centuries and the emergence of an autocratic Chinese superpower whose seemingly unstoppable economic ascent shatters the comfortable belief that capitalist development leads to democracy. Should the liberal west brace itself for a new global "Beijing consensus" of authoritarian modernity?
Failure as a ChanceAugust 28, 2007 / Constanze StelzenmuellerRheinischer MerkurHilary Clinton's rise to become most promising female presidential candidate stems from her husband's mistakes, when she rediscovered herself and learned from her mistakes as First Lady.
The Next InterventionAugust 06, 2007 / Robert KaganWashington PostIs the United States out of the intervention business for a while? With two difficult wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a divided public, the conventional answer is that it will be a long time before any American president, Democrat or Republican, again dispatches troops into conflict overseas.
Foreign Fathers: The Idea of the Marshall Plan is still in EffectJuly 08, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichFrankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungThe Marshall Plan was introduced sixty years ago. On June 5th, 1947, then American Foreign Minister General George Catlett Marshall announced in a speech at Harvard University the plan for an American help program for the reconstruction of the destroyed European economy, a program which from then on would bear his name. This article is available in English and original German.
The Democrats’ Democracy ProblemJune 17, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichWashington PostDemocrats today have a problem with democracy. We have lost our voice on the issue of promoting democracy abroad -- which means that what was once a core Democratic foreign policy idea is being ceded to the GOP.
Better Than NothingMay 17, 2007 / Philippe LegrainForeign PolicyThe new U.S. immigration bill drafted by leading Democratic and Republican senators is a deeply political bargain that has been hammered out over months, and it shows: The result is a 380-page Frankenstein.Werkelei am GebälkMay 10, 2007 / Ulrike GuérotFinancial Times DeutschlandThe arrival of Nicolas Sarkozy as French President should breathe new life into the revitalization of the European Constitution that was rejected in France in 2005. Many fear that Europe, however, could head in the opposite direction instead of making forward progress. (Article in German)Beijing Cools on MugabeMay 02, 2007 / Andrew SmallInternational Herald Tribune
China, which once perceived the West's condemnation of Mugabe and sanctions against his regime as an economic opportunity, now views its involvement in Zimbabwe as a liability both for its investments and its international reputation.
The future of America lies in MiamiMay 01, 2007 / Michael WerzKommuneSuprisingly, more than half the Latino vote went to George Bush, helping him win the Presidency. As the largast ethnic lobbying body gathered in Miami for their yearly conference, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama find themselves in a neck-to-neck race for the Democratic nomination. The Republican candidates have preferred to stay out of the public's eye. Recent immigration reform failed due to conservative populism and now the mood among America's Latinos more heated than ever before. (Article in German)
This article discusses the challenges facing the US in the broader Middle East, four years after the Iraq war. It highlights the implications of a more chaotic strategic environment for the region, the risk of multiple "civil wars," and the opportunity costs with regard to the Palestinian-Israeli crisis and other issues. It was written for the French publication Afkar Idées and is written in French. The full article is available for download below:
China, the Unlikely Human Rights ChampionFebruary 14, 2007 / Andrew Small, Stephanie Kleine-AhlbrandtPolicy Innovations
Each time President Hu Jintao concludes a trip to Africa, he leaves a bigger Chinese footprint on the continent. Yet the imprint left by this February's visit is not just a result of the usual choreographed procession of trade deals, largesse, and south-south brotherhood. It also reflects a quiet revolution in Chinese attitudes toward non-interference, exemplified by Hu's most visible push yet for settlement of the Darfur crisis.
China Jumps InFebruary 02, 2007 / Andrew SmallInternational Herald Tribune
We are getting used to seeing new faces of Chinese diplomacy and on President Hu Jintao's latest trip to Africa we will see the unlikeliest of all. In making his most visible push for the settlement of the Darfur crisis, Hu will signal a quiet revolution in Chinese attitudes to sovereignty and noninterference, and position China as the protector of the repressed citizens of the region.
Germany’s Russia Policy Following the Murder of Anna PolitkovskayaOctober 16, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDziennikPresident Putin's recent visit to Germany was overshadowed by the murder of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya of just a few days before. In the subsequent press conference, after only a few opening remarks, Chancellor Merkel demanded an explanation for the killing. Putin's cynical assertion that the murderous act damaged Russia more than the supposedly unimportant work of the journalist horrified the German media. At state visits in Dresden and Munich, German protesters waved banners depicting President Putin as a murderer.
A question of honorSeptember 20, 2006 / Robin ShepherdInternational Herald TribuneRarely has a modern European leader been more brazen in his contempt for basic standards of political decency. Hungary's socialist prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, admitted that he had secured re-election earlier this year after lying to voters about the true state of the economy.World Cup: Germany wins – just not the CupJuly 07, 2006 / Constanze StelzenmuellerInternational Herald TribuneSo we lost the World Cup. But we Germans seem to be coming out as winners in all sorts of other odd ways.Abbas’s Palestinian referendum offers only false hopeJune 19, 2006 / Robin ShepherdThe Financial TimesGood news from the Palestinian territories is a rarecommodity, so rare that there is an understandable tendency to overstate its significance when it comes.The Dzurinda RevolutionJune 12, 2006 / Robin ShepherdThe Wall Street Journal EuropeImagine you're the leader of a country where economic growth is running at 6.3%, your government has been praised by the World Bank as the best market reformer in the world, unemployment has fallen to a record low of 10.6% from around 20% in just four years and your flat 19% corporate, value added and income tax rate led Steve Forbes to call your country an "investors' paradise."American Philanthropic Foundations: Emerging Actors of Globalization and Pillars of the Transatlantic DialogueMay 29, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierReport presented at Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, organized in Tokyo by the World Bank and the Ministry of Finance of Japan from May 29-30, 2006.This policy paper illustrates the increase in power of American philanthropic foundations in discussions dealing with globalization, in particular financing for development and Global Public Goods.
The reform of the IMF: the tree which hides the forestMay 09, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) faces an identity crisis. Many member governments feel that the IMF is not responsive to their needs and that they lack the voice and vote, in other words, the influence, to bring about the institution.Europe in a Pause for ThoughtMay 01, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotKulturaustauschSince the French and Dutch voted against a European Constitution, Europe has found itself in an identity crisis, euphemistically referred to as an "opportunity for reflection."The Third Way to LisbonMarch 21, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotWall Street JournalThe European Union is facing a crisis of historic proportions. Its infamous social model is failing as new trends in the industrialized world -- globalization, ageing, and rapid technological change -- threaten to permanently destroy the European way of life.The Touch, and Clout, of Merkel and RiceFebruary 28, 2006 / Ulrike Guérot, Marta DassùFinancial TimesIs there a female touch at work in foreign policy? Most powerful women would probably deny this and consider the hypothesis thinly veiled discrimination. And yet, meeting in Berlin for an Aspen Conference, we decided to speculate a bit.Contain Iran: Admit Israel to NATOFebruary 21, 2006 / Ulrike Guérot, Marta DassùThe Washington PostThe choice of how to respond to Iran’s growing threat to the West in general and Israel in particular is not an easy one.The European Union Between Interests and IdentityFebruary 17, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotSpeech, Cultural Politics Convention Evangelical Academy, Loccum, Germany
When Germany takes over the EU presidency in the first half of 2007, it must be clear where Europe is heading. The tracks for the direction of the EU have to be switched now -- even if the EU gives a rather disoriented impression at the moment. This critical analysis of the current state of the European project sketches out what a European vision for the 21st century could be -- that of an outgoing and active Europe that plays a formative role in world politics.
Base PoliticsNovember 01, 2005 / Alexander CooleyForeign Affairs Volume 84 No. 6If Angela Merkel is elected and put in the position to run a governmental coalition together with the liberals (FDP) – the only coalition that would allow real change in foreign policy – some things in German European and foreign policy may indeed change.
America must make democracy a global causeSeptember 07, 2005 / Craig KennedyFinancial TimesPresident George W. Bush, in his second term inaugural speech, placed the promotion of democracy at the centre of the American foreign policy agenda. A recent GMF poll shows both Europeans and Americans supportive of democracy promotion.China’s Rise Threatens to Divide Asia, Not Unite ItAugust 22, 2005 / Daniel TwiningFinancial TimesNot since modern Japan moved on to the world stage a century ago has a non-western power emerged with such potential to transform the global order as China today. The Pentagon sees a budding rival military power; the US Congress views Chinese acquisitions of US companies as a national security threat; and Mario Monti, the former European commissioner, laments that Europe could one day be little more than "a suburb of Shanghai".
The EU Can Continue to Unite Without a ConstitutionAugust 01, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotEuropean AffairsNeither Albania nor Turkey will join the European Union if, when the time comes, the EU Presidency is still rotating among member governments, with each one taking a six-month stint at the reins. Either the European Union gets a constitution that streamlines its institutions, thereby abolishing the rotating presidency, or none of the long list of aspiring member countries is likely to enter the Union in the foreseeable future.The Origins of Atlanticism in Central and Eastern EuropeJuly 01, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotCambridge Review of International Affairs, Volume 18, Number 2, July 2005; pp. 203-216This article argues that the Atlanticism of Central and Eastern Europe originates in a specific set of historical experiences these countries have had with the United States over the past century. These include the Central and East European encounter with both Nazi and communist totalitarian regimes; a recognition of the leading role the US played in toppling communism and in facilitating the integration of these countries into Euro-Atlantic institutions; and the strategic calculation of many countries in the region that their national interests in Europe are better preserved via active American engagement that balances the influence of other major European powers.