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On Defense, France Bites the Bullet, But Avoids Strategic Insolvency May 7, 2013
Iceland’s Recovery Saga Presents Opportunities for Brussels, Washington—and Beijing May 6, 2013
Which Way Forward for Europe’s Hybrid Regimes? May 2, 2013
The Arab Revolts and the Liberal Order May 2, 2013
Events
GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
News & Analysis Archive
Asia’s Real Challenge: China’s “Potemkin” RiseMay 06, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
Low-quality growth has undermined China’s social fabric and individual welfare. It also makes China look far stronger on paper than in reality.Geostrategic Annual ReviewApril 30, 2013 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLe Monde
In Le Monde’s annual issue on the state of the world, Bilan Géostratégie 2013, GMF's Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer argues that economic & geopolitical trends are reshaping transatlantic cooperation.Can China Handle the Crises to Come?April 26, 2013 / Minxin PeiFortune magazine
Xi Jinping's legacy will not depend on whether he saved more lives in Lushan or contained the H7N9 bird flu, but on whether he can make China more open, democratic, and livable than it is today.China’s Dream WorldApril 16, 2013 / Minxin PeiProject Syndicate
Xi may still be enjoying a honeymoon with the Chinese public, but it is likely to be a short one. His predecessors had ten years to carry out real reforms and accomplished little.U.S. Trade Can Help India ReformMarch 26, 2013 / Daniel TwiningThe Wall Street Journal
Delhi will be quicker to liberalize if it knows that cheap U.S. gas exports are waiting on the other side.China’s Income Gap Solution: Too Little, Too Late?February 20, 2013 / Minxin PeiFORTUNE
Few would disagree that reducing China's disturbingly high level of income inequality is one of the most difficult but critical challenges facing the nation's new leadership.
Time to Breathe New Life into Ties with EuropeFebruary 19, 2013 / Peter SpardingCNN
For decades advocates on both sides of the Atlantic have been arguing for a more comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the EU. Now it finally seems within reach.Italy at Crossroads—AgainFebruary 18, 2013 / Fabrizio Tassinari
A Conversation between Stefano Guzzini and Fabrizio Tassinari ahead of general election on 24-25 February. A New Era for Transatlantic Trade LeadershipFebruary 13, 2013 / Jim Kolbe, Jennifer Hillman, Bruce StokesGMF & ECIPE
President Obama announced plans for a free trade agreement between the US and Europe during his annual State of the Union address. GMF publication, A New Era for Transatlantic Trade Leadership, calls for the creation of a barrier-free transatlantic market as part of ambitious recommendations for a new U.S.-EU trade agenda.Europe: The Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Offer Three New FrontiersFebruary 12, 2013 / Bruno LétéEuropean Global Strategy
By evolving clearer approaches to these new frontiers, Europe would send a reassuring signal to the rest of the world that it remains a global player.Why Nordic Nations are a Role Model for Us AllFebruary 12, 2013 / Fabrizio TassinariCNN
Nordic countries are anything but declining, and they have their mindset to thank for it. Neighbourhood Policy Paper Series Tackles Issues Affecting Black Sea RegionFebruary 11, 2013 / Slawomir Raszewski et al.CIES and BST
Paper series delves into a range of challenges that the Eastern neighborhood is facing.It Must Adapt, Not DisintegrateJanuary 28, 2013 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe New York Times
The price to pay for disintegration is higher than any conceivable gain. Disintegration is a lazy response to a nuanced current problem.China’s Environment: An Economic Death SentenceJanuary 28, 2013 / Minxin PeiFortune.com
Given decades of environmental neglect and China's heavy reliance on coal, it would be difficult to produce a dramatic improvement quickly.America Rediscovers the AtlanticJanuary 28, 2013 / Ian LesserAspenia
Most Europeans will be pleased with the re-election of President Obama after a campaign that many in Europe never realized was such a close run thing. Engaging WiselyJanuary 16, 2013 / Dhruva Jaishankarwww.forceindia.net
Strategic autonomy has served India’s foreign policy well till now.For US and Europe, governance by brinkmanshipJanuary 14, 2013 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffChristian Science Monitor
Following this practice of governance by brinkmanship, the United States has Europeanized its crisis response by artificially erecting a number of cliffs, obstacles, and deadlines.Look East, Act East: transatlantic agendas in the Asia PacificDecember 19, 2012 / Peter Sparding, Andrew SmallEUISS
Latest policy brief by GMF Fellows details transatlantic agendas in the region.Two ways US and Europe can boost their economiesDecember 13, 2012 / Peter SpardingChristian Science Monitor
The US and Europe now have two great opportunities to give their economies a much needed boost. One is to successfully navigate their debt mountains and fiscal cliffs. The other is to finally negotiate a US-EU free trade agreement.GMF’s Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer Testifies before French National AssemblyDecember 11, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer
Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer testified before the Foreign Affairs Committee on America’s foreign policy agenda.China’s Overreach, America’s OpportunityNovember 21, 2012 / Daniel TwiningAmerican Foreign Policy Council
Growing wariness of Chinese power and penetration now being evidenced in Southeast Asian states has created considerable possibilities for American policy.Untapped Trilateralism: Common Economic and Security Interests of the EU, the US and ChinaNovember 08, 2012 / Andrew SmallEUECRAN
Ties between the EU, China, and the U.S. are more interlinked than ever but a joint collaborative response remains elusive.Roads to MandalayOctober 31, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
An integrated Southeast Asia is in India’s interestsSorry World: What Happens in Beijing, WON’T Stay in BeijingOctober 22, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
While many have feared its rise, a weaker China struggling with economic and political challenges at home may present an even greater challenge.More women in the workforce to sustain “Made in Germany”October 16, 2012 / Sudha David-WilpGlobal Post
Paying women to provide child care at home is discouraging women from working.What if Britain left the European Union?October 10, 2012 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffChristian Science Monitor
British PM David Cameron is hinting at a referendum on membership in the European Union. But remember, Britain, if you leave the EU, it's cold out there.Don’t give up on IndiaSeptember 21, 2012 / Daniel Twining, Richard FontaineThe Washington Post
India has represented Washington’s major strategic bet in Asia. Was this bet misguided?
Europe Must Drop its Crisis RoutineSeptember 12, 2012 / Peter SpardingThe Christian Science Monitor
As the eurocrisis continues, Europe must avoid its precarious crisis routine and forge a sustainable plan. Are Chinese Banks Hiding “The Mother of All Debt Bombs”?September 10, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
China's massive bank financed stimulus was intended to keep the economy moving. It may instead lead to economic disaster.
Everything You Think You Know About China Is WrongAugust 29, 2012 / Minxin PeiForeign Policy 
Are we obsessing about its rise when we should be worried about its fall? Andrew Small Discusses China On Wikistrat’s “Ask a Senior Analyst”August 28, 2012 / Andrew SmallWikistrat.com 
Transatlantic Fellow Andrew Small engaged in a 24-hour Q&A with Wikistrat Facebook followers to answer questions on a number of international issues including China-Pakistan relations, China's role in a post-2014 Afghanistan, China's military clout, and the possibility of the RMB displacing the dollar as the dominant reserve currency.China in the Eye of the BeholderAugust 27, 2012 / Minxin PeiProject Syndicate
One of the most glaring, if unremarked, oddities concerning China nowadays is how perceptions of its leaders diverge depending on the observer. The Sunshine State’s Rotten Tomato Fight With MexicoAugust 24, 2012 / Jim KolbeWall Street Journal
Florida growers are demanding protection that would cost thousands of U.S. jobs and risk a trade war with America's second-largest export market.The Ashgate Research Companion to International Trade PolicyAugust 23, 2012 / Kati SuominenAshgate
GMF Transatlantic Fellow Kati Suominen contributes her expertise in the new book The Ashgate Research Companion to International Trade Policy.Is the American Dream Over?August 10, 2012 / Martin MichelotAtlantico.fr
Generation Y has been hardest hit by the economic crisis, which has prompted observers to wonder whether the American Dream as we know it is over.Food crisis: a new normal?July 26, 2012 / Jonathan M. WhiteGlobalPost 
Food shortages are a chronic problem in many parts of the world. Over a billion people worldwide suffer from chronic hunger. The Chinese AwakeningJuly 20, 2012 / Minxin PeiWall Street Journal Asia
Like a share listed on an exchange, the world's perception of China fluctuates as foreigners go from bullish to bearish. One gauge of how the country's image is faring is the latest crop of China books. Why Making China ‘The Boogeyman’ Won’t WorkJuly 17, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
These days it is rare to see Congressional Republicans and Democrats unified on anything, much less speak with one voice. But when they do, the result is not necessarily good.
Moving Too Fast on Burma: Obama Breaks with Aung San Suu KyiJuly 16, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The Obama administration's decision to lift the U.S. investment ban on Burma is the first time Washington has publicly broken with the country's democratic opposition since Burma's fragile but consequential political opening began several years ago.
U.S. Is Moving Too Fast on BurmaJuly 15, 2012 / Michael J. Green, Daniel TwiningWashington Post
Lifting elements of the Burma investment ban is a sensible part of U.S. strategy, but it must create greater economic and political space outside the regime's control.
America the AbsentJuly 09, 2012 / Kati SuominenForeign Policy
Instead of powering the world economy, emerging markets remain hostage to the transatlantic economic morass. The missing ingredient? U.S. leadership.
The End Of China’s Economic MiracleJuly 09, 2012 / Minxin PeiDaily Beast
Twenty years ago, Japan experienced the humiliation of going from world economic champ to chump within a few years of its financial meltdown. Today it seems to be China’s turn.
Advantage India: Why China Will Lose the Contest for Global InfluenceJuly 02, 2012 / Daniel M. KlimanGlobalAsia
Many see China’s authoritarian government as an asset in its rise up the economic ladder, but India’s more open and transparent democracy gives it the edge when it comes to becoming a global power, writes Daniel M. Kliman.
What Next in a post-Doha World? – Lessons from EU, U.S., and Chinese Trade Policy StrategiesJune 27, 2012 / David Kleimann, Joe Guinan, Andrew SmallGlobal Governance Programme
With the WTO hamstrung and the Doha Round dead in all but name, the future directions of international trade and investment liberalisation will be largely determined by the policy strategies and initiatives of the world’s economic superpowers.
Why the World Needs AmericaJune 14, 2012 / Kati SuominenGlobal Trends 2030
The global economic order – the post-war framework of global governance built on rules-based institutions and free and open markets – is largely America’s creation. It has been the midwife of growth and globalization that have produced prosperity around the world.
The Mexico challengeJune 12, 2012 / Daniel M. KlimanThe Indian Express
When the G-20 meets at Los Cabos, Mexico, this month, India will share the limelight with the world’s leading developed and emerging market economies. In the G-20 and beyond, India stands at a foreign policy crossroads.
Spanish bailout, Greek elections make June a make-or-break month in debt crisisJune 12, 2012 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffChristian Science Monitor
One day, when historians look back to June 2012, they will likely find it was a make-or-break month for Europe. The debt crisis, now in its third year, has produced a moment of extraordinary clarity for the 17 countries joined by the euro: Either move toward real fiscal union or break apart.
Parallel Institutions as a Challenge to the Liberal OrderJune 04, 2012 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffGT2030.com
One of the dangers on the road to a polycentric world is the emergence of parallel institutions of global governance. The planned BRICS Development Bank is the most prominent example. The problem is: a development bank of this kind already exists. It is called the World Bank.
Why the Liberal Order Will Survive in a Post-Western WorldMay 31, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarGT2030.com
Predicting the decline of the liberal order (often inextricably linked to narratives about the future of democracy, liberalism, free markets, peace, and global institutions) is an age-old pastime. But, first drafts of history are often destined for the rubbish bin.
The Rise of the Rest and the Return of Spheres of InfluenceMay 28, 2012 / Minxin PeiGT2030.com
The question being asked most often today is whether rising powers, such as India, China, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, will help maintain the post-WWII liberal order by contributing to its costly maintenance.This may not be the right question to answer.
What Fate for Liberal Order in a Post-Western World?May 27, 2012 / Daniel TwiningGT2030.com
Over the next two decades, the relative power of major international actors will shift markedly. The NIC's draft Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds maps out three broad scenarios for how will the rise of the rest impact the international system.
How a German state election affects EuropeMay 11, 2012 / Sudha David-WilpCNN.com
Germany's electoral map has many colors in comparison to the red and blue of America, yet on both sides of the Atlantic, battleground state elections can portend change on the national level.
Trade? Who Cares?May 10, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
Very few Americans volunteered trade as one of the “most important problems” facing the United States in this election year. To put this into perspective: more Americans believe in space aliens than in the dangers of the trade imbalance.Sarkozy’s exit could transform France’s world roleMay 07, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonCNN.com
The election of the first French Socialist president since 1995 also could dramatically change France's role in the world, at a particularly sensitive time.Reports of Our DeathMay 04, 2012 / Bruce Stokes
Europeans have begun to believe that our economic problems are worse than theirs. They’re wrong.
China, the Euro Crisis and Transatlantic CooperationMay 02, 2012 / Andrew Small
In this testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Andrew Small explains that, despite the euro crisis, the European Union has been toughening up its stance in its economic relationship with China. For the United States, the opportunities to coordinate with the EU on economic policy responses loom larger than the risks that Europe’s need for Chinese money will act as a constraint.
Racing the ClockApril 23, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
Tokyo needs to move fast in its quest to join talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement.
Europe’s Bleak FutureApril 18, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
The euro crisis will one day be a dim memory. The bigger challenge is avoidingthe kind of stagnant economy that now seems likely.
U.S.-Europe-Asia: The New Strategic TriangleApril 16, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Despite claims that the U.S. "pivot" to Asia means a move away from Europe, there are enormous opportunities for the Atlantic allies to work together in a structured, systematic way in rising Asia on key issues like Burma, China, institution building and security.
An Idea Whose Time Has ComeMarch 23, 2012 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice
The EU and the US can at last begin working on the details of creating a true transatlantic market.
Raising ExpectationsMarch 16, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
Instead of resigning itself to sluggish economic growth, it’s time for Europe to face facts.
Despite the euro crisis, the Continent has avoided turning to extremist political parties.
Is There Life for the G20 beyond the Global Financial Crisis?February 24, 2012 / Kati Suominen, Uri Dadush
To transform from a crisis-fighter to an effective forum of global economic governance, the G20 has to confront four major challenges: build on its comparative advantages, be realistic in what it can achieve, effectively integrate emerging economies in global governance, and clarify its own structure and composition.
Japan’s Tough CallFebruary 24, 2012 / Bruce Stokes
Washington wants Tokyo to be part of a massive pan-Pacific trade accord, but vital industries in both countries stand in the way.
Fresh StartFebruary 16, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
The White House’s new trade enforcement center offers a chance to set firm guidelines in U.S.-China relations.
A China policy primer for Xi Jinping’s visitFebruary 14, 2012 / Daniel Twining
In Washington's internal debates over China policy, several schools of thought are vying for primacy. America's Sinologists should have a little more confidence that the United States can compete with China, not only in the contest for power but in the contest of ideas.
Why the Euro Crisis MattersFebruary 03, 2012 / Bruce Stokes
As Washington scrambles to cope with the economic fallout, it must reassess Europe's reliability as a strategic partner.
Can the Afghan economy be saved?February 03, 2012 / Javid Ahmad, Louise LangebyForeign Policy Magazine
Afghanistan is in shambles. With all attention on security concerns, the economy has been left to flounder. But there is long-term potential
in a New Silk Road strategy.
From the euro to Iran, the world is about to intrude on the nation’s slumber. And no one—the voters or the media—seems to care.
EU Could Benefit from US’s Pacific focusJanuary 19, 2012 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice
Last year was a big year for US trade policy and 2012 could be more active still.
Ivan Vejvoda Testifies on Balkans and the 2012 NATO SummitJanuary 18, 2012 / Ivan VejvodaUnited States Senate Testimony
In testimony before the U.S. Helsinki Commission, GMF's Ivan Vejvoda highlighted the progress made in security and democratization in the Balkans and called for Macedonia and Montenegro membership at the Chicago NATO Summit.
Why Isn’t Germany Stepping up to Save the Euro Zone?December 05, 2011 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffWashington Post
Only Germany can save the euro zone, therefore Germany must — such is the refrain heard around the world....
Moment of TruthDecember 05, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Germany's chancellor can save Europe. But it means betraying her voters....
Constanze Stellzenmueller: EU Playing Game of Chicken with Reform Measures (video)December 02, 2011 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFrance 24
On December 2, 2011, GMF Senior Fellow Constanze Stelzenmueller spoke with France 24 about the ongoing eurozone crisis and the prospects for progress.
Europe’s Euro Problem – and OursDecember 02, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
It's more than economic. It's a national security crisis, too.
...
Berlin has much potential for global influence, and just as many shortcomings....
Obama’s Other Power ToolsNovember 30, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
The political gods have not favored progressives in recent years. The 2008 election delivered an extremely popular Democratic president, 60 Democratic votes in the Senate, and a strong majority in the House of Representatives. But all have gone downhill since then.
There’s Good Reason to UniteNovember 29, 2011 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffNew York Times
According to Angela Merkel, Europe will fail if the euro fails. And the euro will fail, one might add, if the Franco-German alliance fails. Disturbingly, there are signs of strain in that crucial relationship - at the most dangerous of moments....
Dizzy yet? The pros and cons of the Asia ‘pivot’November 22, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The President has finished up a grueling trip to the Asia-Pacific region and can generally feel good about what he accomplished. Like everything this President does, however, the trip was very heavy on political spin.
Here Comes the SunNovember 17, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
The new trade talks with Japan matter. They're one of the best ways to deal with China....
At the G20, Look to the Swing StatesNovember 02, 2011 / Daniel M. Kliman, Richard FontaineWorld Politics Review
As the leaders from the 20 largest economies gather this week in Cannes,observers will note the difficulties in forging consensus. But this G20 summit will highlight another challenge to coordinated international action....
Will China’s Rise Spoil the Transatlantic Relationship?September 23, 2011 / Andrew Small, Daniel M. KlimanSpiegel Online
A new survey by the German Marshall Fund finds that China's rise is leading Americans to turn their attention away from Europe and to view China as more of a threat than Europeans do. But how much do these factors threaten the trans-Atlantic relationship, and how well can it adapt to changing circumstances?
The U.S. Public Wants DisengagementSeptember 15, 2011 / Bruce StokesCNN World, YaleGlobalThose who criticized American unilateral interventionism under President George W. Bush may soon have an opportunity to see how they like American isolationism, especially if a Republican recaptures the White House in 2012.
Debating Australia’s strategic futureSeptember 01, 2011 / Daniel TwiningAustralian Broadcasting Corporation
For the first time in its history, Australia's primary economic partner is not its closest ally but its closest ally's emerging challenger. The days when Australia faced easy strategic choices and a benign external security environment are ending.
U.S.-India Relations: Can India Step Up to the Plate?August 02, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarEast-West Center's Asia Pacific Bulletin
It might seem natural to despair about the current state of US-India relations. New Delhi has eliminated two US suppliers from a landmark competition for 126 front-line fighter aircraft, a contract worth over $10 billion.
No Time to Turn AwayJune 23, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
European leaders dodged yet another volley of bullets this week in their ongoing debt crisis. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote. But the Greeks have little reason to celebrate, says Bruce Stokes.
EU’s strategy on Political and Security issues in the four seas: a multilateral approachJune 22, 2011 / Niels AnnenThe EU4Seas ProjectImproving the conditions for the overall success of her policies in the four seas (the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea) will test the EU's ability to implement a more coherent foreign policy, writes Niels Annen.Commercial AppealJune 20, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
John Bryson has an opportunity to use the Commerce Department to bolster U.S. competitiveness, if he is given the green light by the president.A taxing transatlantic challengeJune 14, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
Without co-ordination, Europe and the US risk rewriting their corporate-tax codes in self-destructive ways, writes Bruce Stokes.Not Just a Flesh WoundJune 09, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
The Doha Round is dead. The sooner the World Trade Organization recognizes that, the sooner negotiators can turn their attention to other trade-liberalization accords.What Makes a Country Great?June 06, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
A new rating system compares more than gross domestic product, and it suggests that the U.S. lags many of its peers on health, education, and personal fulfillment. By Bruce StokesA Taxing QuestionMay 26, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
Corporate tax reform is now lost amid the cacophony of anguish about raising the debt ceiling. But the issue is not going away. President Obama has called for lowering corporate taxes. And House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Chairman Kevin Brady, R-Texas, recently introduced legislation to enable U.S. multinationals to repatriate overseas profits at preferential tax rates.Obama’s crucial moment in PolandMay 26, 2011 / Ivan Vejvoda
President Obama’s visit to Europe this week is giving him the opportunity to bury once and for all perceptions that have dogged his administration from the outset: that the United States has lost interest in Europe, and has put a higher priority on resetting relations with an authoritarian Russia than it has on the completion of a Europe whole, free, and at peace. Above the Fray No MoreMay 23, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
For the United States, there is much to fear from Europe’s debt crisis but not much it can do. When the first wave of Europe’s debt crisis hit a year ago, the U.S.’s fledgling recovery immediately began to stall. Stock-market volatility spiked to levels not seen since the depths of the financial crisis, and stock prices weakened.Why the Next IMF Head Must Be EuropeanMay 19, 2011 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffWith Dominique Strauss-Kahn having resigned as IMF general director on Wednesday, the debate about his successor promises to get even more heated. But those who argue the next IMF shouldn't be European are wrong. Change is coming to international organizations, but it shouldn't be rushed.African development: The role of traditional and emerging players reconsideredMay 16, 2011 / Jim Kolbe, Kathryn ThulinTrade Negotiations Insights
The growing engagement of emerging economies, notably China, India and Brazil, in Africa is changing the landscape for development bringing significant new opportunities (and challenges) for Africa.A fresh wind from the PacificMay 12, 2011 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice
With a U.S. Congressional vote on trade deals with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama now almost inevitable, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is rapidly making a priority of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, a free-trade agreement involving the United States, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.Smart InvestingMay 11, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
This week’s U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue addressed the gamut of bilateral issues troubling relations between the two superpowers: from the value of the Chinese currency to human rights. But no issue may have been more important for the future well-being of the U.S. economy than the trajectory of Chinese direct investment in the United States.Emerging HangoverApril 20, 2011 / Kati Suominen
As the economic crisis fades in the rearview mirror, some analysts on Wall Street and in Washington expect the world economy to enter a prolonged global growth spurt powered by the emerging markets as a result of "industrialization and urbanization of emerging markets and global trade."The Pacific CampaignApril 14, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
The recent announcement that Colombia and the United States have a provisional agreement on issues that have long delayed completion of their free-trade agreement breaks the logjam that has held up a congressional vote on the South Korea, Colombia, and Panama trade deals.
Why Congress shouldn’t slash foreign aidApril 08, 2011 / Jim KolbeDaily Caller
Jim Kolbe and Connie Morella explain why Congress shouldn't slash foreign aid in an op-ed for The Daily Caller.Not a Chinese Century, An Indo-American OneApril 04, 2011 / Daniel TwiningGlobal Asia
China’s three decades of explosive growth and increasing influence on the global stage have often led to talk of the country dominating the 21st century. But democratic values and strategic interests shared by India and the US could upend this expectation as the two countries pull closer together.
Trade BoorApril 02, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Western governments looked on helplessly as Beijing developed its own brand of China-first capitalism. Now, according to Bruce Stokes, they’re contemplating how to fight back.A Resurgence of RelevanceMarch 31, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
Multinational institutions like the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are more important than ever in the wake of the economic crisis, says Bruce Stokes.Pride comes before a recessionMarch 24, 2011 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceThe U.S. could learn some lessons about labor markets from Europe, writes Bruce Stokes.Jim Kolbe moderates discussion with heads of the World Bank and WTO on Aid for Trade AgendaMarch 15, 2011 / Jim KolbeUS Chamber of Commerce
On March 14, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Jim Kolbe moderated a discussion between the President of the World Bank Group, Robert Zoellick, and the WTO's Director-General, Pascal LamyNot So Fast With The Rosy ScenarioMarch 09, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
In February, the unemployment rate fell to 8.9 percent, its lowest level since April 2009, and the economy added 192,000 jobs, the most since May 2010. But the more accurate measure of the jobs picture is found in the employment-population rate, and the situation there is troubling, says Bruce Stokes.Dan Price Interview on G20 Finance Ministers MeetingFebruary 18, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
Dan Price, GMF G20 Advisory Group member and former U.S. sherpa to the G20, is interviewed by the Business News Network on the G20 finance ministers’ meeting taking place on February 18-19, 2011.The Centrality of Manufacturing to America’s Future ProsperityFebruary 16, 2011 / Bruce StokesNew America Foundation
In his State of the Union address January 25, 2011, President Barack Obama mentioned the word “manufacturing” just once. The president’s failure to acknowledge, even in passing, a sector of the economy that accounts for 11 percent of America’s GDP is a metaphor for his administration’s disdain for manufacturing as an important contributor to the nation’s future well-being.The G20 Should Ride to Europe’s RescueFebruary 14, 2011 / Bruce StokesFiscal Times Blog
Yet another European sovereign debt crisis plan is expected to be unveiled soon by European leaders. Squabbling over its specifics and recent experience suggest the effort will be a day late and a euro short, doing little to slow Europe’s slow motion economic train wreck.Failure to LaunchFebruary 12, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Exports would create American jobs, and India's new public-investment program offers a huge opportunity. So why aren't we tapping it? By Bruce StokesHow trade could help a post-Mubarak Egypt succeedFebruary 10, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
The fate of the Egyptian government remains unclear, but one thing is certain: The country's economy is the immediate casualty.Trilateral ConcernsFebruary 10, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
The Stockholm China Forum, a semiannual gathering of American, European, and Chinese interests, is a useful venue to take the temperature of what is arguably the most important trilateral relationship in the world.The facts on foreign aidFebruary 09, 2011 / Jim KolbePolitico
With Egypt leading the news and congressional budget discussions coming to a head, there is an energetic debate now about U.S. foreign assistance.Mideast Protests Drive Up Oil, Threaten RecoveryFebruary 01, 2011 / Bruce StokesFiscal Times
With oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel on Monday, thanks to growing uncertainty about stability in the Middle East, the somewhat distant, feel-good, democracy-awakening story coming out of Egypt suddenly took on a more ominous, economic tone that could hit Americans where it hurts most — their wallets.More effective foreign assistance can pay real dividendsJanuary 28, 2011 / Jim KolbeDaily Caller
As a new Congress gets into gear, both Republicans and Democrats have a solemn duty to do the people?s work and to make sure their taxpayer dollars are being spent wisely. U.S. foreign assistance is already under the microscope, as it should be, but we believe policymakers should focus on making it better instead of slashing budgets.An Agenda, If You Can Keep ItJanuary 27, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
After years of relative quiescence, Congress actually has a trade agenda in 2011: possible votes on the Korea, Colombia, and Panama trade agreements, and on Russia's application to join the World Trade Organization.Opponent of My OpponentJanuary 22, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
Last year, mutual frustration with China’s increasingly irascible behavior— coupled with deepening concern about Pakistan—led to a reboot of the Indian-American relationship.China in 2011 and beyondJanuary 19, 2011 / Martin Jacques, Joseph Quinlan, Andrew SmallGMF Blog
To coincide with President Hu Jintao's historic visit to Washington, DC, GMF has published three articles on the state of China's relations with transatlantic partners.Political reform: China’s next modernization?January 13, 2011 / Daniel TwiningWashington Post
China boasts the world's second-largest economy, delivering double-digit economic growth on a seemingly permanent basis. As President Hu Jintao prepares to visit Washington next week, his country's model of authoritarian development looks unstoppable - with troubling implications for American primacy in world affairs.
Inescapable transatlantic budget painsJanuary 06, 2011 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceBudget cutting and deficit reduction will be a major preoccupation in Washington this year, with important implications for European interests.The Pluck of the Irish et al: Europe ? Bail Us Out!December 21, 2010 / Bruce StokesThe Fiscal Times
European leaders met in Brussels late last week following a $112 billion bailout of Ireland and amid escalating financial market concerns about both Portugal and Spain. Despite calls by some European officials for bold new initiatives to stem the spreading euro crisis, the leaders essentially kicked the can down the road.Why Europe MattersDecember 04, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
When European leaders announced a $112 billion bailout of Ireland last week, only to watch bond markets start panicking about whether Spain and Portugal might be the next dominoes to fall, it was hardly a surprise that neither President Obama nor congressional leaders even seemed to notice the tremors across the Atlantic. But that indifference could be a mistake.Korea TimeDecember 02, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
U.S. and South Korean negotiators rushed this week to strike a deal on a revised Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). Failure to get the deal done when President Obama visited Seoul in mid-November heightened skepticism about its prospects.A Growing Skepticism of TradeNovember 19, 2010 / Bruce StokesCongress Daily
In the wake of the 2010 congressional elections, the future of trade policy in the 112th Congress is best summed up by the question once posed by the 1960s rock band Buffalo Springfield: “There’s something happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear.”America: Stop lecturing China and do your homeworkNovember 17, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffRealClearWorldBarack Obama finally succeeded in uniting the world - just not the way he intended. At the G-20 summit in Seoul, countries almost universally rejected America's ideas for correcting current-account imbalances as well as its second round of quantitative easing (QE2). After an electoral shellacking at home, the U.S. president suffered a diplomatic shellacking abroad. It was one of the darker hours of American economic diplomacy.Are U.S.-India relations oversold?November 12, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The biggest disappointment of President Barack Obama's Asia trip was his failure to strike an agreement on the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement in Seoul. His biggest success was his embrace of a transformative partnership with India. The president can now claim ownership of a relationship that has been on the rocks since he took office.
The Long Currency WarNovember 12, 2010 / Kati SuominenForeign PolicyAt the end of the G-20 summit, where world leaders managed only to delay dealing with difficult challenges from global imbalances to trade protectionism, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak proclaimed a "temporary end" to the so-called currency wars that have reached a fever pitch over the last two months as countries have manipulated their exchange rates to gain an edge in world markets.G20 Meeting Starts in SeoulNovember 10, 2010 / Kati Suominen
With the fifth meeting of the G-20 heads of government kicking off in Seoul this Thursday, GMF and Club de Madrid presents a series of materials exploring the likely outcomes and implications of this year's summit.Lessons in regionalism: What can the WTO teach the IMF?November 03, 2010 / Kati SuominenVox.EU
Will financial regionalism damagingly fragment the global financial architecture precisely at the time when sturdy system-wide management is needed? This column points to the world trading system’s engagement with regional trade agreements as a source of lessons for how to harmonise regional and global approaches to international finance.Policies to Bridge Regional and Global Financial ArrangementsNovember 01, 2010 / Kati SuominenMIT Press
The G20 placed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the center of its efforts to tame the global financial crisis, tripling the Fund’s lending capacity and refurbishing its mission and instruments. However, as the world economy recovers, the Fund is facing difficult questions about its legitimacy and effectiveness.The Return of GlobalizationOctober 21, 2010 / Kati Suominen, Gary HufbauerForeign Policy
As the G-20 finance ministers gather in South Korea this weekend in advance of November's big meeting, they will surely notice that globalization is back -- almost. The trajectory of world trade over the last two years looks V-shaped: a drop of 12.2 percent in 2009 followed by a projected gain of 13.5 percent in 2010. Can they agree to cooperate before protectionist urges tear them apart?A Roadmap for Revitalizing the U.S. Partnership With IndiaOctober 19, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Baroness Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s new foreign minister, will come to Washington next week on a mission. One of her goals is to strengthen the transatlantic dialogue about China.
Balance of payments: Different definitions of normalSeptember 23, 2010 / Bruce StokesCongress Daily
Slow economic growth is potentially becoming a "new normal" for both European and American economies. However, in these circumstances there is much to suggest that a European style social security net could help reduce the U.S's spiraling unemployment rates.WTO Dispute Panels Gain PowerSeptember 03, 2010 / Bruce Stokes
GENEVA—In November 2008, in an early version of the cash-forclunkers legislation, Sen. Barbara Mikulski, D-Md., proposed allowing taxpayers to deduct interest on car loans and state car taxes from their federal income taxes as a means of boosting plummeting U.S. auto sales. Asked if her scheme would apply to both foreign- and domesticmade vehicles, she replied, matter-of-factly, “Of course it would; otherwise it would be WTO-incompatible.”How the EU is seen in Asia, and what to do about itJuly 28, 2010 / Andrew SmallEuropean View
In Asia's major capitals, the last few years have seen marked shifts in perspectives on the European Union. Not so long ago the EU was viewed as everything from a rising political power to a model for regional order. The combination of economic stagnation and the painful process of fixing the EU's institutional arrangements has been part of the problem.Corporations: Stop Hoarding!July 16, 2010 / Bruce StokesThe National JournalGetting corporate leaders to act like capitalists, not Scrooges— to invest rather than save—is the nation’s most pressing economic challenge. If the country is to avoid looming economic stagnation, the government may need to use the threat of tax sticks and the enticement of investment carrots to get corporations to begin to take risks again and pledge their assets to America’s future.
From Stalwart To Skeptic, Germany Rethinks EU RoleJuly 13, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerNPR's Morning Edition
The financial calamity of the European Union's sovereign debt woes has shaken the pillars of the postwar ideal of a united Europe. Germany, long a postwar champion and financier of European integration, is flexing its muscles more independently. And more of its citizens are questioning the country's leading role in the European project.The Congress on the RhineJuly 10, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
The European Parliament, newly powerful, is becoming a magnet for U.S. lobbyists.The Dollar Question: Where Are We?July 09, 2010 / Kati Suominen
The global crisis has led some to question the dollar’s place as the dominant currency. This column discusses three camps in the literature: those advocating a new synthetic global currency, those arguing that a new reserve currency will emerge, and those suggesting a return to sharing the role. It concludes that talk of the dollar’s death – or even its decline – are exaggerated.‘No-One Is Going to Be Bought Off by a Tiny Revaluation’June 26, 2010 / Andrew SmallSpiegel Online
In the run-up to the G-20 summit, China has tried to placate the United States with a revaluation of its currency. But the move is not a real change of course, explains the German Marshall Fund's Andrew Small in a Spiegel Online interview. He argues that the Chinese leadership is more concerned with deflecting external criticism than with the health of the global economy.Modernizing Russia’s Economy… and PoliticsJune 24, 2010 / Andrew SmallForeign PolicyU.S. policymakers for years have lamented their lack of leverage in pushing for democratic reform and respect for human rights in Russia. Well, now we may have an opportunity, but the question is whether we will make use of it. If Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is serious in wanting our help with his economic modernization agenda, we should insist that he needs to make measurable progress in political liberalization first.Twenty Years of Western Democracy Assistance in Central and Eastern EuropeJune 15, 2010 / Pavol DemešIDEA
Before the European Union and its allies can effectively promote democracy in other countries, they need to address the internal problems brought on by the global economic crisis, from which they have not yet fully recovered. Democracy assistance needs to be tailored to the specific needs and expectations of each country and handled with tact and with respect for local democracy activists. Donor countries also need to be aware of ways that pursuing their own economic or security goals can tarnish their democratic credibility. Despite all these challenges, recent history has provided ample evidence that the human spirit and solidarity can overcome even the direst obstacles and may be our strongest resource in the quest for democracy and cooperation in Europe and beyond.Did global imbalances cause the crisis?June 14, 2010 / Kati SuominenVoxEU
Did global imbalances cause the global crisis? This column summarises the variety of explanations of the relationship between imbalances and the crisis. While the debate continues, it suggests that, as a matter of prudence, policies to contain global imbalances may still be warranted even if they did not trigger the crisis.
President Obama's Asia policy remains a work in progress with some real possibilities to advance key relationships. But losing India may do more to weaken the U.S. position in Asia than any number of accomplishments in relations with Japan, South Korea, and other partners.
The BRICs: Building blocks of a new world order that diminishes the West?April 23, 2010 / Daniel TwiningReal Clear World
China is a manufacturing superpower; India is the world's largest democracy and "knowledge power"; Russia is a potential "energy superpower," according to the U.S. National Intelligence Council; and Brazil dominates a region lacking any great power competitor. An alliance among these behemoths could change history in ways that diminish the West.
Beijing blinks first: the Currency Debate in Diplomatic ContextApril 16, 2010 / Andrew SmallVoxEU
While the U.S. Treasury's decision on whether to label China a currency manipulator is inevitably political in nature, rarely has it ever been so geopolitically loaded. In previous years, it has mainly been the economic relationship at stake. This time the implications run from Middle Eastern security to nuclear proliferation, and will do much to define the broader shape of the U.S.-China relationship in the coming years. Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century: The Role of Korean-American Partnership in Shaping Asia’s Emerging OrderApril 01, 2010 / Daniel TwiningThe U.S.-ROK Alliance in the 21st Century (book chapter)
While the United States' other relationships in Asia have transformed as the region has re-emerged, the relationship with South Korea remains stuck in the past, frozen by the continuing conflict on the Korean peninsula. South Korea and the United States will both benefit from a strengthened alliance, positioning both countries in a space where they can adapt and thrive in an Asian century.
Der Zorn auf die Griechen wird die Türken treffenMarch 27, 2010 / Thomas StraubhaarDie WeltIt will become an historical irony that the Euro crisis provoked by Greece will hit Turkey hardest. The mood in Western Europe is against a further enlargement by economically weaker countries. Therefore, a fast end of the negotiations and a Turkish EU membership has become more difficult to achieve.In the European Monetary Fund proposal, a chance to get the IMF rightMarch 17, 2010 / Kati SuominenVoxEU.orgWhatever its merits for rescuing European nations mired in crisis, the German finance minister's March 7 proposal for a European Monetary Fund provides an opportunity for Europe and the United States to get the future of the IMF right.Economic rebalancing is coming, whatever the EU wantsFebruary 04, 2010 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceObama wants to change the balance of the international economic order. Europe will need to adapt or to persuade him otherwise.Splitting Europe’s budget billFebruary 03, 2010 / Jack ThurstonEuropean VoiceWho are the misers and who are the gold-diggers among the EU's 27 member states? Some are Gold Diggers, happy to reap the benefits of integration and let others pick up the tab. Others are Misers – fans of budget discipline and a smaller CAP, but keen to claim compensation for their net balance deficits. Others still are Fence-Sitters: quick to pay lip service to the idea of budgetary discipline, they are still keen to maintain CAP spending levels. That is the conclusion of a new paper analysing the EU member states' responses to the “fundamental” review of the EU budget, which the European Commission launched in 2007.The New Superpower: ‘The Chinese Are Unready by Their Own Admission’ for Global LeadershipJanuary 29, 2010 / Andrew SmallSpiegel Online
The United States and China have grown so powerful that people around the world speak reverentially of a "G-2." But there are cracks in the alliance, as the German Marshall Fund's Andrew Small explains in a Spiegel Online interview. Frustration is growing in the United States over Beijing's lack of cooperation on economic issues.Taking the HeatDecember 01, 2009 / Dhruva JaishankarPragati - The Indian National Interest Review
Nobody said climate change negotiations would be easy. On both the WTO’s Doha Round and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, India found itself at the vanguard of opposition to the West, with damaging but fortunately not disastrous political consequences. It appeared that a similar outcome was inevitable on climate negotiations.
A Gift (in Disguise) to Europe and Japan: the G2November 18, 2009 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
A 'G2' is unlikely. Substantial difference between the United States and China make accord difficult to reach, but discussion about the concept puts pressure on China to be more globally responsible - and that is a good thing for Europe and Japan. A Cold WindNovember 12, 2009 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
Barack Obama may be the first post-Boomer president, but he appears to retain a similar orientation to Clinton in matters pertaining to India, although for his generation India is more closely associated with Satyam than satyagraha.
The Siren Song of “Normalcy”November 01, 2009 / Dhruva JaishankarThe American Interest"Normal" tends not to be an adjective that individuals or nations cherish for themselves. Who wants to be merely normal, average or typical when one can be exceptional or superior? Germans do, and it is not hard to understand why. As a united polity only since 1870, Germany's bloody odyssey from the Franco-Prussian War to World War I, revolution, depression, Hitler, World War II, the Holocaust, and a country divided into two diametrically opposed political systems defines its historic "normalcy." At least for Germans born after World War II, normal meant being deviant, subject to a kind of metaphysical disfigurement, symbolized in concrete by the hideous wall sprawled across Berlin. Thus to be genuinely normal meant Germany must divorce itself from its own history, an abnormal enterprise-and so a problem of another sort. To what extent has Germany achieved this divorce and solved this problem?
No More Low-Hanging FruitOctober 14, 2009 / Pavol DemešTransitions OnlineThis year found the Euro-Atlantic community not only busy with pressing economic and political issues but also commemorating several important milestones – the 70th anniversary of the start of World War II, the 60th anniversary of NATO's founding, the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. This last opened space for unprecedented changes in the former Soviet bloc.
It was once said of Fidel Castro that his "stomach is in Moscow but his heart is in Beijing." Now the opposite seems to be true.The transatlantic marketplace and Obama: don’t be quick to celebrateNovember 03, 2008 / Joseph QuinlanSüddeutsche ZeitungIt's no secret that Europeans won't miss President Bush when he hands over the presidency to President-elect Barack Obama in January 2009. Because of the extremely unpopular, U.S.-led war in Iraq, the past eight years in transatlantic partnership have been tenuous, and the general impression is that the years following this administration can only improve.
New Plumbing, New Purposes – Rebuilding the Atlantic AllianceOctober 05, 2008 / Joseph QuinlanThe American Interest November/DecemberPrinciples in the pipeline: Managing transatlantic values and interests in Central AsiaOctober 01, 2008 / Alexander CooleyInternational AffairsAfter 9/11 the Central Asian states hosted coalition military bases and became important security partners for operations in Afghanistan. The rising price of oil and gas, coupled with a renewed western concern about its energy security, made the development and export of Central Asian production a much more pressing commercial and strategic priority for Brussels and Washington than it was in the 1990s. A region that was effectively ignored for over a decade has now become a vital area of transatlantic interest.
Politics beats economics, againJuly 30, 2008 / Jack ThurstonThe GuardianWhoever's to blame for the collapse of the Doha round, one thing's for sure ? we'll all have to live with the consequences.EU-US scholar: Obama may not be the easy partner Europe hopes forJuly 23, 2008 / Francois LafondEurActive.comAmid their 'Obamania', Europeans tend to overlook that on certain issues like trade, a President Obama pressured by a Democrat-led Congress could be a more difficult partner in pushing for a common agenda, Francois Lafond of the German Marshall Fund told EurActiv in an interview.America must correct course: a conversation with Helmut SchmidtJuly 01, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe American InterestThomas Kleine-Brockhoff, the senior director for policy programs at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, recently met with former German Finance Minister and Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in his Hamburg office on behalf of The American Interest to discuss the United States and the world economy.
What We Can Learn From SwedenJune 21, 2008 / Bruce StokesNational JournalIn the early 1990s, Sweden experienced the worst financial crisis suffered by any industrial country since the Depression. The Swedish banking collapse wiped out fortunes, cost taxpayers a staggering amount of money, and may have permanently reduced the country’s standard of living. Thus, as Washington watches Wall Street’s slow-motion meltdown, Stockholm may have much to teach the next president about weathering banking tsunamis.
Get involved over Georgia or invite a warJune 03, 2008 / Bruce StokesFinancial TimesThe west could be sleepwalking into a war on the European continent. Georgia, which burst into view with a moving display of democratic ambition during the Rose Revolution of 2003, is teetering on the brink of war with Russia over the separatist Georgian enclave of Abkhazia. The outcome of this crisis will help determine the rules of the post-cold-war security system. But western diplomats are notsending strong enough signals to either side.
As Farm Bill Nears Vote, Bush Presses for Fewer SubsidiesMay 04, 2008 / Dan MorganWashington PostPresident Bush's decision in 2002 to sign a farm bill loaded with billions of dollars of new agricultural subsidies triggered considerable criticism from GOP conservatives true to the party's anti-spending philosophy. Now, as Congress nears final agreement on a new five-year farm bill that will cost nearly $300 billion, the president has taken a harder line. Emboldened by soaring food prices and record farm profits, he has pressed Congress to cut farm subsidies sharply and has made clear that he will veto the popular bill if lawmakers do not meet his demands.
Supping at the WTO’s Last Chance SaloonMarch 27, 2008 / Dan MorganEuropean Voice, Editorial & OpinionThe global credit squeeze has made the world's economics ministers understandably jittery. But the crisis unfolding over world trade is far more serious. With the Doha Round of talks at the WTO at a standstill, now the unthinkable could happen. The global trading system may be abandoned.The Copenhagen Consensus: Reading Adam Smith in DenmarkMarch 01, 2008 / Dan MorganForeign Affairs, March/April 2008A new catastrophe for the boat peopleFebruary 21, 2008 / Elizabeth BeckerThe Boston GlobeLe Dung was 7 when his family bought passage on a rickety boat and fled the communist government of Vietnam for parts unknown. That was 30 years ago, when the plight of the Vietnamese boat people filled newspapers as one of the most dramatic stories coming out of the Cold War in Asia, and the United Nations convened a special conference to find them homes. Today these former boat people endure further misfortune after their homes were destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.ACPs and EPAs: where’s the beef?January 03, 2008 / Elizabeth BeckerTrade Negotiations InsightsNow that the Doha round appears to be stirring back to life, some of the world's poorest countries should be looking to multilateralism to protect their interests with a renewed sense of urgency.Corporate farming’s best friend – how the poor protect agribusiness’s subsidiesOctober 22, 2007 / Elizabeth BeckerWashington PostWhy has the reform movement been such a flop? Because most members of Congress won't be thinking about farms when they vote for the farm bill. They'll be voting for the only part of the program that matters to them: food stamps -- one of the last safety nets for the millions of poor who are their constituents.Playing the America CardOctober 01, 2007 / Daniel TwiningWeekly StandardChina's rise in Asia and the world is one of the big stories of our time. Goldman Sachs predicts that China's economy will be bigger than America's in two decades. From Shanghai to Singapore, one hears whispers of a "new Chinese century" recalling the Sino-centric hierarchy of traditional Asia. Yet China's geopolitical ascent is creating what Mao Zedong would have termed a "contradiction": China's rising power makes the United States increasingly important to nearly every Asian nation, including China itself.
Corn Farms Prosper, but Subsidies Still FlowSeptember 28, 2007 / Dan MorganWashington PostThose annual automatic payments to Handsaker and thousands of other prospering corn growers have long been controversial. But coming at a time when taxpayers are already subsidizing the ethanol industry to the tune of $3 billion a year, the double-barreled support system for those who grow corn and those who turn it into fuel has begun to draw fire in Congress.
Asia’s challenge to ChinaSeptember 25, 2007 / Daniel TwiningFinancial TimesAmerican economic weakness, Europe's uncertain political and demographic future, turmoil in the Middle East and challengers to western leadership from Moscow to Tehran may signal a new moment in world politics. It is characterised by the decline of free nations whose power and principles have shaped international society for centuries and the emergence of an autocratic Chinese superpower whose seemingly unstoppable economic ascent shatters the comfortable belief that capitalist development leads to democracy. Should the liberal west brace itself for a new global "Beijing consensus" of authoritarian modernity?
Border WarsSeptember 01, 2007 / Philippe LegrainWorthDoes immigration reform dig a gigantic money pit, or does it open the floodgates of fiscal opportunity? Counterpoint to article by Robert Rector of the Heritage Foundation.
Teaching Entrepreneurship in the Arab WorldAugust 14, 2007 / Stefan TheilNewsweek InternationalIf the Middle East is to have any shot of making up for decades of past stagnation, it's going to need many more kids like Hodeib, eager to build new companies and create new jobs. That's the rationale behind a small but growing movement of educators and CEOs, Western aid agencies and multinationals, royals and even Islamists, who are now trying to inject the entrepreneurial virus into the region's youth.Farm Bill Leaves Some SubsidiesJuly 19, 2007 / Dan MorganWashington PostFarm bloc lawmakers yesterday offered the U.S. fruit and vegetable industry $1.8 billion in new federal grants over the next five years as part of a farm bill that would leave in place far larger subsidies for grain, cotton and dairy producers.End of Dreams, Return of HistoryJuly 18, 2007 / Robert KaganHoover Institute Policy ReviewThe world has become normal again. The years immediately following the end of the Cold War offered a tantalizing glimpse at a new kind of international order, with nations growing together or disappearing altogether, ideological conflicts melting away, cultures intermingling through increasingly free commerce and communications.Foreign Fathers: The Idea of the Marshall Plan is still in EffectJuly 08, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichFrankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungThe Marshall Plan was introduced sixty years ago. On June 5th, 1947, then American Foreign Minister General George Catlett Marshall announced in a speech at Harvard University the plan for an American help program for the reconstruction of the destroyed European economy, a program which from then on would bear his name. This article is available in English and original German.
In Favour of a Selective PartnershipJuly 01, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie Berliner RepublikGermany plays a specific role for Russia and vice versa. It is apparently no coincidence that the German chancellor and the Russian President communicate in Russian and German - after all German-Russian relations have always been complex and changeable. Mutual fear and admiration, phobic defensiveness and empathetic fondness have characterized the situation on both sides - not merely in recent times, but always.
A Slow Demise in the DeltaJune 20, 2007 / Dan MorganWashington PostFrom 2001 to 2005, the federal government spent nearly $1.2 billion in agricultural subsidies to boost farmers' incomes and invigorate local economies in this poverty-stricken region of the Mississippi Delta.Switching to Biofuels Could Cost a Lot of GreenJune 08, 2007 / Dan MorganWashington PostAs President Bush and congressional leaders rally support for their ambitious biofuel proposals, one ingredient is often left unstated: the cost. This article was cowritten with Steven MufsonAmerica’s Grand Design in AsiaMay 31, 2007 / Daniel TwiningWashington QuarterlyIn a dynamic Asian order featuring new centers of power, China's rise will naturally challenge Washington's ability to protect its interests in the region. In 2000, presidential candidate George W. Bush labeled China as the United States' leading strategic and military competitor. In September 2005, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick explicitly warned Beijing not to "maneuver toward a predominance of power" in Asia, suggesting that it was doing exactly that.The Club of CompetitorsMay 07, 2007 / Stefan TheilNewsweek InternationalIf the reports are on target, Europe will grow faster than America in 2007-for the first time in six years. European Union countries created 2 million new jobs last year, cutting unemployment to its lowest since 1991. Better, growth is no longer confined to outliers like Britain, Spain or the Baltic mini-states. Europe's resurgence is driven by the behemoth at the continent's heart, Germany.The Ultimate Answer: Fusion Power’s Long TakeoffMay 01, 2007 / Marty RosenbergEnergyBiz MagazineWhile there is some lingering skepticism about the viability of fusion power generation, the scientific community has convinced government officials that the remaining technical hurdles, while complex and significant, can be cleared. But it will require an unprecedented degree of global cooperation.It’s All About AttitudeApril 30, 2007 / Stefan TheilNewsweek InternationalWith the demand for microfinancing on the rise, and tech start-ups heading back to Wall Street, entrepreneurship is key when it comes to economic growth these days. Transatlantic fellow Stefan Theil interviews Edmund Phelps, 2006 Nobel Prize winner, about the relationship between entrepreneurship and economy.Can the Development Agenda Save the Doha Round?April 01, 2007 / Stefan TheilBRIDGES Monthly ReviewWhile it is frequently bemoaned that designating the Doha Round as a 'development round' has made the negotiations more difficult, the designation may offer the only solution to the larger questions of legitimacy and credibility facing the WTO and the global trade regime.Vladimir Putin: The Gasman is comingMarch 25, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltGMF Fellow Jörg Himmelreich analyzes Russia's strategy of implementing gas and oil as weapons - and warns against falling into their propaganda maneuver regarding the U.S. missile defense system. Written for the German daily Die Welt, the article is in original German.The Ruler of the PipelineMarch 01, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichInternationale PolitikIt used to be tanks and missiles but now it is oil and gas that matter. The Kremlin is deliberately using its energy resources and the dependency of the importing countries as a tool of a new great power policy. The EU can no longer allow itself to be treated in this manner. It should use its power of demand to create a new foundation for future cooperation. Don’t Blame the Unit of AccountFebruary 05, 2007 / Jonathan M. WhiteWallstreet JournalOn Jan. 1, the fifth anniversary of the introduction of euro notes and coins, Slovenia became the currency club's 13th member. Recent opinion polls, though, show that a majority of citizens in the larger euro-zone countries don't feel like celebrating.
Strategies instead of blindfoldsJanuary 15, 2007 / Tanja WunderlichDas ParlamentIt was suddenly as if a catalepsy had dissolved. On January 1, 2005, Germany's new immigration law was passed. It was just as much a rejection of the native multiculturalism of earlier years as it was a heated, populist warning of terrorist infiltration. (Article in German)Europe in the Era of GazpromJanuary 12, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDer TagesspiegelThe EU-Commission's "Strategic Energy Report" contains many feasible suggestions for improving competition conditions within the European energy market, promoting environmental protection, as well as developing renewable energy. These objectives provide, without a doubt, indispensable elements of a common European energy policy considered essential in order to protect the survival of the human race on our planet.
Strong response to Putin’s Russia overdueJanuary 09, 2007 / Robin ShepherdFinancial TimesAs Russia and Belarus sought to blame each other on Monday over the suspension of oil supplies through the northern leg of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Poland and Germany, Europe might well have paused to take stock of its own share of responsibility for the latest threat to its energy security.
The New Great Game: Why the Bush administration has embraced IndiaDecember 20, 2006 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardThree recent events illuminate the contours and fault lines of Asia's emerging strategic landscape, amid the lengthening shadows cast by China's growing power.Don’t rush to join the euroDecember 19, 2006 / Robin ShepherdInternational Herald TribuneA report this month from the European Commission chiding the countries of Central and Eastern Europe for failing to make adequate preparations for joining the euro could all too easily be seen as the culmination of a disappointing year for the European Union's newest member states.India is more than BollywoodSeptember 29, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDer TagesspiegelThe Indian elephant is rising - slowly, but determined. In the public sphere and the foreign political arena, India is still in the shadow of China. At the same time, there is no doubt that in the newly emerging global order at the beginning of the 21st century India is becoming a new actor with crucial global significance.Rethinking global economic governance in the 21st centurySeptember 22, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierPolicy PaperThis policy paper, entitled "Rethinking global economic governance in the 21st century", was presented on Sept 22, 2006 in Washington in the Atlantic Council of the United States with Randhall Henning from the Institute for International Economics. Please see below for the PDF of the paper.
A question of honorSeptember 20, 2006 / Robin ShepherdInternational Herald TribuneRarely has a modern European leader been more brazen in his contempt for basic standards of political decency. Hungary's socialist prime minister, Ferenc Gyurcsany, admitted that he had secured re-election earlier this year after lying to voters about the true state of the economy.Analysis: Eastern Europe ready for euro?August 03, 2006 / Robin ShepherdUnited Press InternationalAn old Chinese proverb has it that we should be careful what we wish for. As the European Union's new accession countries from the former communist world scramble to drop their national currencies for the euro without even the semblance of a debate about the potential risks, it is a warning they might want to bear in mind.Towards a Better DealAugust 01, 2006 / Ann TutwilerGlobal Subsidies Intiative, Sudsidy Watch, Issue 3The crash of the World Trade Organization (WTO) talks was greeted with muted cheers by some protected farmers in wealthy countries, some even buying new tractors to celebrate yet another failure to produce a more efficient and just global marketplace.E.U.’s Reforms Similar to Trends Seen in U.S. Agriculture PolicyJuly 01, 2006 / Ilene GrossmanStateline ExpressEuropean agriculture policy is undergoing a transformation. In 2003, wide-ranging changes began to take Europe’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in a direction that tied government payments less to production and focused more on rural development and environmental initiatives.
Trading UpJune 26, 2006 / Ann TutwilerThe New York TimesAfter protests, walk-outs, missed deadlines and deadlock, trade negotiators in Geneva have been moving toward a deal on agricultural subsidies and tariffs that could clear the way for a world trade agreement.Op-Ed: International Monetary Fund and the World BankMay 11, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierChallengesGMF Transatlantic Fellow Benoît Chervalier wrote an Op-Ed article about the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank for Challenges, a French economics newspaper.The reform of the IMF: the tree which hides the forestMay 09, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) faces an identity crisis. Many member governments feel that the IMF is not responsive to their needs and that they lack the voice and vote, in other words, the influence, to bring about the institution.The Third Way to LisbonMarch 21, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierWall Street JournalThe European Union is facing a crisis of historic proportions. Its infamous social model is failing as new trends in the industrialized world -- globalization, ageing, and rapid technological change -- threaten to permanently destroy the European way of life.The European Union Between Interests and IdentityFebruary 17, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotSpeech, Cultural Politics Convention Evangelical Academy, Loccum, GermanyTo leaven the mood at the opening session of the WTO ministerial conference in Hong Kong in mid-December, Pascal Lamy, the WTO’s newly installed director general, pulled a magic wand from his breast pocket. Progress has been so slow and the main protagonists dug in to such seemingly irreconcilable positions that Lamy, who has the unenviable task of brokering a final deal, could be forgiven for resorting to sorcery.
But if he had been looking for a prop to sum up the overall mood of the delegates and observers arriving in Hong Kong, Lamy might well have brandished a stethoscope. After the acrimonious walkout by developing countries at the last summit in Cancún in 2003, the main objective for the WTO this time around was survival. The diminishing of expectations to such a low level was profoundly depressing, particularly in a year when the British government threw the weight of its twin presidencies of the G8 and the EU behind the trade justice movement.
The good news is that the WTO did survive Hong Kong, and its 149 members agreed a text which includes a small measure of progress towards a final deal. The new text is less than spectacular, but everyone agreed to keep talking, and to hold a Hong Kong 2 in Geneva in the spring. The bad news is that there is an enormous amount still to do, and not much time in which to do it.
The EU delegation came to Hong Kong expecting the worst. In the late summer "bra wars," Peter Mandelson had flunked his first major test as EU trade commissioner, and over the months that followed, the US consistently outmanoeuvred the EU in the build-up to Hong Kong. If America's multibillion-dollar cotton subsidies, so crippling to poor west African farmers, had made the US the villain at Cancún, it did not seem impossible that fortress Europe would carry the can for a potentially fatal breakdown at Hong Kong. This is because progress in agriculture, the sector of the world economy most heavily distorted by trade barriers and most important to developing countries, has become the prerequisite for progress in other areas like manufactured goods and services. Brazil, the world’s most competitive agricultural exporter and leader of the powerful G20 grouping of developing countries, recently turned its fire away from US cotton, corn and soybean subsidies and towards Europe’s farm tariffs.
Mandelson’s negotiating position has not been helped by a French government whose leaders – from President Chirac down – seem to relish the chance to strut on the world stage and belittle EU institutions by threatening to veto any trade deal which might require shaving a little of the fat from Europe’s bloated farm subsidy programmes. US negotiators face exactly the same kind of opposition from an increasingly protectionist congress, but the difference is that for the most part congress has had the good grace to refrain from using the handcuffs in such a public manner.
Facing isolation, Mandelson’s strategy in the early exchanges at Hong Kong was to go on the offensive. To the point of obsession, he criticised US "food aid" (see "Aid-dumping," Prospect July 2005), arguing that it serves the narrow interests of American farmers and aid charities more than the needs of the world's hungry. In a more subtle and effective move, he challenged the US, Japan and middle-income countries, including Brazil, to match the EU’s unilateral move to completely open its markets to the 50 least developed countries for all products other than armaments. Economists tell us that the benefits of trade liberalisation always outweigh the costs. While this may be the case as far as economics is concerned, with politics the reverse is closer to the truth.
The European Union has a political need to deliver on the GI issue during World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks to prove that there is a future for European farmers in high-quality, niche agriculture.
Winds of ChangeOctober 13, 2005 / John AudleyWallstreet Journal EuropeConfronted by strong political winds in the aftermath of two devastating hurricanes and gusts of hot air blowing off Capitol Hill, the Bush administration still has signaled the right message on global trade negotiations: Breaking the deadlock in the WTO’s Doha round of talks begins by taking initial steps to reform U.S. farm policy.Why Europe Will Run the 21st CenturySeptember 13, 2005 / Mark LeonardAfter launching in Europe earlier this year, Mark Leonard's Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century will be released for an American audience on September 13. Leonard wrote the book while serving as a Transatlantic Fellow with the German Marshall Fund in Washington, DC, and in it describes the European Union’s strength as a “transformative power.”China’s Rise Threatens to Divide Asia, Not Unite ItAugust 22, 2005 / Daniel TwiningFinancial TimesNot since modern Japan moved on to the world stage a century ago has a non-western power emerged with such potential to transform the global order as China today. The Pentagon sees a budding rival military power; the US Congress views Chinese acquisitions of US companies as a national security threat; and Mario Monti, the former European commissioner, laments that Europe could one day be little more than "a suburb of Shanghai".
The EU Can Continue to Unite Without a ConstitutionAugust 01, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotEuropean AffairsNeither Albania nor Turkey will join the European Union if, when the time comes, the EU Presidency is still rotating among member governments, with each one taking a six-month stint at the reins. Either the European Union gets a constitution that streamlines its institutions, thereby abolishing the rotating presidency, or none of the long list of aspiring member countries is likely to enter the Union in the foreseeable future.Aid, not TradeJuly 01, 2005 / Jack ThurstonProspect Magazine