The Great Sino-Indian Alpine Tent Party of 2013May 09, 2013 / Dhruva JaishankarForeign PolicyChina's latest border squabble with India might seem trivial, but the consequences could set Asia on edge. Asia’s Real Challenge: China’s “Potemkin” RiseMay 06, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe DiplomatLow-quality growth has undermined China’s social fabric and individual welfare. It also makes China look far stronger on paper than in reality.From Crisis to CollapseMay 06, 2013 / Nicholas SiegelEurope’s problems are mirrored on the national level: Regions like Catalonia are speaking up against transfer payments – and contemplate secession.The Dangerous Domestic Politics of U.S.-ChinaMay 03, 2013 / Daniel TwiningFortune magazineThe domestic political frictions produced by the bilateral relationship are, like the tensions between the established power and its rising challenger, intensifying.Geostrategic Annual ReviewApril 30, 2013 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLe MondeIn Le Monde’s annual issue on the state of the world, Bilan Géostratégie 2013, GMF's Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer argues that economic & geopolitical trends are reshaping transatlantic cooperation.Whose Pacific Century? The 113th Congress and AsiaApril 22, 2013 / Daniel Twining, Edward GresserThe National Bureau of Asian ResearchThis report examines the issues in Asia that the 113th Congress will confront—from the pace and scale of military drawdown in Afghanistan to an increasingly dangerous North Korea.China’s Dream WorldApril 16, 2013 / Minxin PeiProject SyndicateXi may still be enjoying a honeymoon with the Chinese public, but it is likely to be a short one. His predecessors had ten years to carry out real reforms and accomplished little.Who Will Lead Afghanistan after Karzai?April 04, 2013 / Javid AhmadWall Street JournalAs Hamid Karzai’s Afghan presidency enters its final year, it’s not too early to consider the question of who will become his successor. One Soviet Leader China Could Emulate…and It’s Not GorbachevApril 04, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe DiplomatThe Andropov model seems to be an attractive option to China’s leaders. It won’t be long before they realize that it is a road to nowhere.Rogue State Rollback on the Korean Peninsula?April 02, 2013 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyNorth Korea's recent saber-rattling raises troubling new questions about the bipartisan failure of American policy to limit Pyongyang's armed recklessness and the threat to the U.S. and our allies.China and Russia: Best Frenemies Forever?March 28, 2013 / Minxin PeiFORTUNEChina and Russia are still deeply wary of each other. The Xi-Putin play-date was to show Washington it should watch its back.BRICS Pose No Challenge to Global OrderMarch 25, 2013 / Daniel M. KlimanWorld Politics ReviewOn March 26, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will gather in Durban, South Africa, for the BRICS grouping’s fifth summit.China’s New Leaders: Don’t Get Your Hopes UpMarch 08, 2013 / Minxin PeiFORTUNEThe only good news coming from the pending leadership changes is the near-certainty of the end of China's one-child policy.A Blueprint for Restoring American ExceptionalismMarch 07, 2013 / Daniel Twining, William Inboden, Ash Jain, Jim Goldgeier, Daniel FataForeign PolicyThe Obama administration's minimalist foreign policy can lead observers to forget what a more traditionally engaged foreign policy even looks like.A New Era for Transatlantic Trade LeadershipFebruary 13, 2013 / Jim Kolbe, Jennifer Hillman, Bruce StokesGMF & ECIPEPresident Obama announced plans for a free trade agreement between the US and Europe during his annual State of the Union address. GMF publication, A New Era for Transatlantic Trade Leadership, calls for the creation of a barrier-free transatlantic market as part of ambitious recommendations for a new U.S.-EU trade agenda.Europe: The Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Offer Three New FrontiersFebruary 12, 2013 / Bruno LétéEuropean Global StrategyBy evolving clearer approaches to these new frontiers, Europe would send a reassuring signal to the rest of the world that it remains a global player.Testimony on Turkey before the Canadian SenateFebruary 06, 2013 / Emiliano AlessandriParliament of Canada ParlVUOn February 6, 2013, Senior Transatlantic Fellow Emiliano Alessandri gave a testimony on Turkey before the Canadian Senate. During this meeting, Emiliano was able to provide his insight on economic and political developments in the Republic of Turkey, their regional and global influences, the resulting implications for Canadian interests and opportunities, and other matters of interest. The ‘Obama Doctrine’: An Unsentimental AppraisalFebruary 04, 2013 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyWhereas George W. Bush's foreign policy was maximalist, Obama's is minimalist.Picking Up From Clinton, Kerry Should Focus on AsiaFebruary 04, 2013 / Dhruva JaishankarIndia America TodayAs John Kerry assumes the role of Secretary of State, Clinton’s track record in Asia offers some useful guidance. The Taiwan LinchpinFebruary 01, 2013 / Daniel TwiningPolicy ReviewAn old ally is key to the U.S. position in AsiaThe Interview: Richard Fontaine & Daniel KlimanFebruary 01, 2013 / Daniel M. KlimanThe Diplomat interview with Richard Fontaine and Dr. Daniel Kliman about their new report: Global Swing States: Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and the Future of International Order.America Rediscovers the AtlanticJanuary 28, 2013 / Ian LesserAspeniaMost Europeans will be pleased with the re-election of President Obama after a campaign that many in Europe never realized was such a close run thing. Would China Block Korean Unification?January 27, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe DiplomatInstead of obstructing Korean reunification, Beijing must embrace it and place its chips on the side of Seoul. Afghanistan’s Special Forces Are A Bastion of HopeJanuary 25, 2013 / Javid AhmadForeign PolicyResponsibly preparing to deter many of the threats Afghanistan will face after 2014 requires more Afghan Special Forces.Unfinished Transitions: Challenges and Opportunities of the EU’s and Turkey’s Responses to the “Arab Spring”January 25, 2013 / Emiliano AlessandriIstituto Affari InternazionaliAs the geopolitical implications of the Arab uprisings become clearer, the EU and Turkey should adopt a more lucid and nuanced approach to democracy and a more explicitly political response to the “Arab Spring.”Engaging WiselyJanuary 16, 2013 / Dhruva Jaishankarwww.forceindia.netStrategic autonomy has served India’s foreign policy well till now.A Big Year for Transatlantic Ties?January 14, 2013 / Bruce StokesCNN.comThe next twelve months could prove key for both security and economic ties between Europe and the United States.For US and Europe, governance by brinkmanshipJanuary 14, 2013 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffChristian Science MonitorFollowing this practice of governance by brinkmanship, the United States has Europeanized its crisis response by artificially erecting a number of cliffs, obstacles, and deadlines.EU should expand its Iran policyJanuary 10, 2013 / Fabrizio TassinariEuropean VoiceEU needs to broaden its approach to Iran so that it goes beyond imposing sanction on the nation.Book Review: Turkey in the 21st Century: Quest for a New Foreign PolicyJanuary 08, 2013 / Emiliano AlessandriTurkey in the 21st Century: Quest for a New Foreign Policy is a welcome addition to the fast-growing literature in English on Turkish foreign policy.Asia’s Pivotal PowerDecember 28, 2012 / Daniel Twining, Richard FontaineWall Street JournalJapan has world-class capabilities that make it a serious player in the global balance of power.Look East, Act East: transatlantic agendas in the Asia PacificDecember 19, 2012 / Peter Sparding, Andrew SmallEUISSLatest policy brief by GMF Fellows details transatlantic agendas in the region.The Bullies of Beijing: China’s Image ProblemDecember 15, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe DiplomatMilitary and political actions by the Chinese government have strained diplomatic relations with its neighbors. Regime Change in China?December 13, 2012 / Minxin PeiProject SyndicateWhile the future of China is unpredictable, the durability of its post-totalitarian regime can be estimated with some confidence. Global Trends 2030: Scenarios for Asia’s strategic futureDecember 11, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyWhat kind of role Asia will play in the world, and how it will relate to the United States and other Western powers, in turn will be determined by what form of regional order is operative in 2030. GMF’s Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer Testifies before French National AssemblyDecember 11, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferDr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer testified before the Foreign Affairs Committee on America’s foreign policy agenda.U.S. has work cut out to make sure Afghan forces are combat readyDecember 10, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.comUS has a challenging task as it prepares Afghan security forces for 2014 drawdown.India’s OceanDecember 07, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarForeign PolicyCould Indian Navy growth shift balance of power in the Pacific Ocean? The Good, the Bad, and the UglyDecember 05, 2012 / Celeste A. WallanderForeign PolicyThere’s more than meets the eye to Russia’s change of defense ministers.Rethinking Poland in the Second TermDecember 03, 2012 / Andrew A. MichtaThe American InterestPoland’s dynamic economy and growing geopolitical weight make it an increasingly important European ally for the United States.A World RecastNovember 30, 2012 / Simon SerfatyRowman and LittlefieldNew book by GMF’s Simon Serfaty argues Western era’s passing is exaggerated as an irreversible decline relative to an irresistible rise of other powers.Afghan Security Returns to the GrassrootsNovember 30, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe National InterestInfluential village and tribal leaders still command great legitimacy and act as interlocutors between the government and the local people.From Hu to XiNovember 28, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndian ExpressNow that the Communist Party of China has completed its once-in-a-decade transfer of power, has it overcome the fatal flaws that befall authoritarian regimes?China’s Overreach, America’s OpportunityNovember 21, 2012 / Daniel TwiningAmerican Foreign Policy CouncilGrowing wariness of Chinese power and penetration now being evidenced in Southeast Asian states has created considerable possibilities for American policy.Can Obama Get Afghanistan Right in Second Term?November 14, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.comKabul is once again vying for Washington’s attention, now that the U.S. presidential elections are over.The U.S.-China ResetNovember 14, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe New York Times China needs a new approach to stabilize the deteriorating security relationship with the United States.Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer Testifies on State of Transatlantic Relations before French SenateNovember 13, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferIn her testimony before the French Senate Committee for Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces, Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, GMF's Paris Office director, discussed transatlantic ties and future foreign and defense challenges facing the United States.Les Enjeux Diplomatiques Font ConsensusNovember 08, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLe MondeGMF's Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer argues that Obama has redefined U.S. leadership and that Libya is a precursor of future military operations.A Great Game Of Spear And ShieldNovember 08, 2012 / Daniel TwiningOutlookA strengthening of America's ties with India will trigger shifts in the power paradigm in the age of China. Untapped Trilateralism: Common Economic and Security Interests of the EU, the US and ChinaNovember 08, 2012 / Andrew SmallEUECRANTies between the EU, China, and the U.S. are more interlinked than ever but a joint collaborative response remains elusive.Beijing fakes the good fight against its own corruptionNovember 05, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe National China is paying a huge price for its kleptocracy. Corruption has made its economy less efficient and more risky, inequality has worsened and the regime's legitimacy has dived.Why Beijing prefers ObamaNovember 05, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndia ExpressThe tight U.S. presidential race has raised anxieties around about the future of American foreign policy. Nowhere is the level of uncertainty and fear higher than in Beijing.Securing the Durand Line could bring peace to AfghanistanNovember 04, 2012 / Javid AhmadFinancial TimesThe best way to end the countless challenges on both sides of Afghanistan's frontier is to insist on demarcating the Durand Line and to govern it effectively. Transatlantic Public Opinion on Immigration: Important Lessons for PolicymakersOctober 26, 2012 / Hamutal BernsteinMigration Policy PracticeSharing the Transatlantic Trends: Immigration results with high-level policymakers and a wide range of stakeholders over the last five years has revealed a number of notable general trends that should inform policymaking and decision-making.Sorry World: What Happens in Beijing, WON’T Stay in BeijingOctober 22, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe DiplomatWhile many have feared its rise, a weaker China struggling with economic and political challenges at home may present an even greater challenge.Avoiding Another Afghan Civil WarOctober 22, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe Daily BeastOnce Washington emerges from the election cycle, it must revisit its Afghan war policy and develop contingencies for a post-2014 Afghanistan. Past Choppy WatersOctober 15, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Indian ExpressBeijing and Tokyo return to positions of pragmatism over the East China SeaIn Afghanistan, deadly ignoranceOctober 08, 2012 / Javid AhmadWashington PostIn Afghanistan, cultural cluelessness can be deadly. China’s Afghan MomentOctober 04, 2012 / Andrew SmallForeign PolicyThe looming U.S. drawdown gives China a chance to move into Afghanistan.Beijing’s Bargain of a DecadeOctober 01, 2012 / Minxin PeiWall Street JournalThe twin announcements coming out of Beijing last Friday may strike most as an incongruous pair. Don’t give up on IndiaSeptember 21, 2012 / Daniel Twining, Richard FontaineThe Washington PostIndia has represented Washington’s major strategic bet in Asia. Was this bet misguided? TFMI Edition of Migration Policy Practice is OutSeptember 19, 2012 / Hamutal BernsteinThe Transatlantic Forum on Migration and Immigration edition of the International Organization of Migration’s Migration Policy Practice has been published.Xi Jinping’s Reappearance Points to Leadership WoesSeptember 18, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe National The presumptive next leader of China, has resurfaced after nearly two weeks out of public sight. What will the implications be for Chinese politics?Tokyo and Beijing must step back from the brinkSeptember 18, 2012 / Minxin PeiFinancial TimesWith their economies struggling and domestic politics in disarray, the last thing leaders in China and Japan need now is a foreign policy crisis. Transatlantic Relations Four Years Later: The Elusive Quest for a Strategic VisionSeptember 14, 2012 / Emiliano AlessandriThe International SpectatorThe transatlantic tensions of the Bush years are behind us but the future of transatlantic relations remains uncertain at the closing of the Obama term.Mark Jacobson on BBC News Discusses Security in Libya After AttacksSeptember 13, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonBBC News

Mark Jacobson, Senior Transatlantic Fellow for Foreign Policy and Civil Society, talks to BBC News about security risks after U.S. ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans were killed in a consulate attack in Libya.

Europe Must Drop its Crisis RoutineSeptember 12, 2012 / Peter SpardingThe Christian Science MonitorAs the eurocrisis continues, Europe must avoid its precarious crisis routine and forge a sustainable plan. China’s Trust ProblemSeptember 03, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndian ExpressBeijing’s “peaceful rise” or “peaceful development” slogan has lost its appeal, if not credibility.Cultural sensitivity key to U.S. role in AfghanistanAugust 31, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.comRecent green-on-blue attacks have severely eroded NATO’s trust in its local partners and they present a major challenge to the U.S. exit strategy.Everything You Think You Know About China Is WrongAugust 29, 2012 / Minxin PeiForeign Policy Are we obsessing about its rise when we should be worried about its fall? Andrew Small Discusses China On Wikistrat’s “Ask a Senior Analyst”August 28, 2012 / Andrew SmallWikistrat.com Transatlantic Fellow Andrew Small engaged in a 24-hour Q&A with Wikistrat Facebook followers to answer questions on a number of international issues including China-Pakistan relations, China's role in a post-2014 Afghanistan, China's military clout, and the possibility of the RMB displacing the dollar as the dominant reserve currency.Why civil servants hold the key to Afghan prosperityAugust 17, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNNKabul's struggle to find competent replacements following the ouster of Karzai's two prominent ministers highlights deeper problems with Afghan politics that reveal the absence of Afghan civil service.Bleak Prospects for No-Fly Zone as Proxy War Grips SyriaAugust 14, 2012 / Ian LesserDeutsche WelleGMF's Ian Lesser talks to Deutsche Welle about possible military action to stem the violence in Syria as the conflict enters its 18th month in the Middle East nation.Another Round of PokerAugust 14, 2012 / Nicholas SiegelThe EuropeanAs tensions rise again over Iran's nuclear program, Washington and Brussels policymakers should keep several things in mind. Superpower Denied? Why China’s ‘Rise’ May Have Already PeakedAugust 09, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe DiplomatHow a toxic mix of economic, demographic, environmental, political, and international challenges could end China's ascent.Afghanistan Needs Less Foreign AidJuly 27, 2012 / Javid AhmadWorld Politics ReviewKabul’s dangerous complacency can be reined in by weeding out the underlying problem: reducing foreign aid and engaging Kabul in structural reforms.Food crisis: a new normal?July 26, 2012 / Jonathan M. WhiteGlobalPost Food shortages are a chronic problem in many parts of the world. Over a billion people worldwide suffer from chronic hunger. Beijing Plays Divide and Conquer to Win in South China SeaJuly 17, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe National

In the long-simmering South China Sea dispute, the territorial argument is becoming a flashpoint for armed conflict and an increasingly sharp-elbowed strategic tussle between the U.S. and China.

U.S. Is Moving Too Fast on BurmaJuly 15, 2012 / Michael J. Green, Daniel TwiningWashington Post

Lifting elements of the Burma investment ban is a sensible part of U.S. strategy, but it must create greater economic and political space outside the regime's control. 

Afghanistan’s Political Crisis: A Short-term solutionJuly 10, 2012 / Javid AhmadForeign Policy

Politics in Afghanistan is broken, just as the country finds itself juggling multiple political and security challenges. Among the most pressing is ensuring a smooth political transition of power by 2014. Unfortunately, with Kabul torn apart by infighting and factionalism, the prospects of succeeding are bleak. In the absence of alternative mechanisms, one way of commanding greater political legitimacy would be the convening of a Loya Jirga.

America the AbsentJuly 09, 2012 / Kati SuominenForeign Policy

Instead of powering the world economy, emerging markets remain hostage to the transatlantic economic morass. The missing ingredient? U.S. leadership.

Pakistan Collapsing from WithinJune 27, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN

Recent developments in Islamabad signify the deep rift between Pakistan's different internal institutions - civilian government, the powerful military, the increasingly active judiciary, and the many opposition groups - each juggling varied and often deeply conflicting agendas. The cost of this power struggle, however, seems to be given little consideration by the players involved.

At G20 summit, West must partner with rising democracies in new global orderJune 18, 2012 / Daniel M. Kliman, Richard FontaineChristian Science Monitor

At the G20 summit in Los Cabos, the agenda will be full of tricky issues. The US and European delegations must look at the bigger picture, one in which the West will need to partner with the rising powers that are today’s global swing states: Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey.

Why the World Needs AmericaJune 14, 2012 / Kati SuominenGlobal Trends 2030

The global economic order – the post-war framework of global governance built on rules-based institutions and free and open markets – is largely America’s creation. It has been the midwife of growth and globalization that have produced prosperity around the world.

Spanish bailout, Greek elections make June a make-or-break month in debt crisisJune 12, 2012 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffChristian Science Monitor

One day, when historians look back to June 2012, they will likely find it was a make-or-break month for Europe. The debt crisis, now in its third year, has produced a moment of extraordinary clarity for the 17 countries joined by the euro: Either move toward real fiscal union or break apart.

China: The Invisible Dragon in the RoomJune 06, 2012 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take

At last weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue, China did much to bear out James Joyce’s maxim that absence is the highest form of presence. In deciding not to send their defense minister and offering only an elliptical justification, China made itself the subject of even greater speculation and theorizing than usual. 

The Liberal Order and the Chinese PublicJune 05, 2012 / Andrew SmallGlobal Trends 2030

In thinking about which powers will sustain – or threaten – the liberal order, China is typically written off as a spoiler. But as China’s public assumes greater influence over its foreign policy in the years ahead, this should not be taken for granted. 

Parallel Institutions as a Challenge to the Liberal OrderJune 04, 2012 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffGT2030.com

One of the dangers on the road to a polycentric world is the emergence of parallel institutions of global governance. The planned BRICS Development Bank is the most prominent example. The problem is: a development bank of this kind already exists. It is called the World Bank.

China’s Challenge to the Liberal Order, India’s Attraction to It, and the Possibilities for Western Revitalization in Light of the Global Embrace of Democratic NormsMay 29, 2012 / Stephen Szabo

The growing role of China is clearly the most significant challenge to the liberal international order to emerge since the shaping of the Bretton Woods institutions. 

The Rise of the Rest and the Return of Spheres of InfluenceMay 28, 2012 / Minxin PeiGT2030.com

The question being asked most often today is whether rising powers, such as India, China, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, will help maintain the post-WWII liberal order by contributing to its costly maintenance.This may not be the right question to answer.

What Fate for Liberal Order in a Post-Western World?May 27, 2012 / Daniel TwiningGT2030.com

Over the next two decades, the relative power of major international actors will shift markedly.  The NIC's draft Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds maps out three broad scenarios for how will the rise of the rest impact the international system. 

GMF’s de Hoop Scheffer on implications of France’s withdrawal from AfghanistanMay 24, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferAtlanticoAlexandra de Hoop Scheffer wrote an article in French for the journal, Atlantico. The article is on NATO, Afghanistan and transatlantic relations and addresses the strategic and transatlantic implications of France’s decision to withdraw combat troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2012 and the contradictions of NATO’s strategy for Afghanistan.De Hoop Scheffer talks with France 24 on U.S. troop WithdrawalMay 24, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferFrance 24Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer was a guest on The France 24 Interview with Foreign Desk Senior Reporter Gauthier Rybinsky on December 14, 2011, She spoke on the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and the long term political and military implications for the U.S. foreign policy and the future of Iraq.Election 2014: Afghanistan’s Chance to Get it Right?May 10, 2012 / Javid AhmadForeign Policy

At a time when the U.S. is in need of widespread public support on the Afghan mission, the administration's tone on Afghan governance is feeble.

Trade? Who Cares?May 10, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal DailyVery few Americans volunteered trade as one of the “most important problems” facing the United States in this election year. To put this into perspective: more Americans believe in space aliens than in the dangers of the trade imbalance.The Lid Cracks Open on Beijing’s Black BoxMay 09, 2012 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Real Clear WorldAfter a long period of stasis, Chinese politics have entered a dramatic new phase. While no one expects major change to arrive quickly, the previous sense of inevitability about China’s internal trajectory is beginning to give way to growing unpredictability. For a long time, the animating China challenge for policymakers in the United States and Europe had been the integration of a rapidly rising power into the global economic and security order. Now they will need to do that while navigating a nation in political transition.Sarkozy’s exit could transform France’s world roleMay 07, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonCNN.comThe election of the first French Socialist president since 1995 also could dramatically change France's role in the world, at a particularly sensitive time.Ten Commandments of Camp 14May 05, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Indian Express

The tragedy is that the plight of political prisoners in North Korea has received remarkably little attention abroad. They do not feature on the agendas of any bilateral or multilateral diplomatic dialogues with Pyongyang and there is little international activism in their support.

India & South Korea: The Promise of PartnershipMay 04, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarKorea Economic Institute

Both countries are also considered key partners of the United States in the years to come, but maintain complex relations with China marked by growing economic interdependence and intensifying security concerns.

China, the Euro Crisis and Transatlantic CooperationMay 02, 2012 / Andrew Small

In this testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Andrew Small explains that, despite the euro crisis, the European Union has been toughening up its stance in its economic relationship with China. For the United States, the opportunities to coordinate with the EU on economic policy responses loom larger than the risks that Europe’s need for Chinese money will act as a constraint.

Reaffirming Tokyo’s Leader in WashingtonMay 01, 2012 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post

Bold and steady political leadership is necessary to set Japan to on the right course and to forge cooperation on key U.S. economic and security interests.

Was the U.S.-India relationship oversold?April 26, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

Today's Financial Times charges that U.S.-India relations are "wilting" in light of various policy spats between the two countries that belie the mutual optimism of 2008. These claims need to be put in perspective.

U.S.-Europe-Asia: The New Strategic TriangleApril 16, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

Despite claims that the U.S. "pivot" to Asia means a move away from Europe, there are enormous opportunities for the Atlantic allies to work together in a structured, systematic way in rising Asia on key issues like Burma, China, institution building and security.

U.S.-Afghan CodependenceMarch 28, 2012 / Javid AhmadNational Interest

A cascade of recent incidents and missteps, including the tragic killing of sixteen sleeping Afghan villagers by a U.S. soldier in Kandahar and the burning of Korans at the Bagram air base, has riled many and escalated tensions between the United States and Afghanistan.

U.S. Must Maintain Trust with AfghansMarch 01, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonCNN Blog

The burning of Qurans by seemingly unwitting NATO forces is one of the most disturbing chapters in the struggle to bring peace to Afghanistan.

Turkey’s Vision for 2012 and Beyond: Davutoglu’s Washington VisitFebruary 17, 2012 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post

Davutoğlu's 2012 visit to Washington once again showcased Turkey's self-confidence as a rising regional power and vision for its neighborhood.

Fresh StartFebruary 16, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily

The White House’s new trade enforcement center offers a chance to set firm guidelines in U.S.-China relations.

The forces behind Dassault’s coupFebruary 10, 2012 / Dhruva Jaishankar, Sarah RaineThe Indian Express

India’s multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) competition recently announced that India will now enter into exclusive negotiations with French contractor Dassault for its Rafale. This is a major blow for the other major contender, the Eurofighter Typhoon, the product of a consortium of the major aerospace companies of four partner nations: Germany, UK, Italy, and Spain.

Turkish Foreign Minister Dr. Davutoğlu Comes to WashingtonFebruary 08, 2012 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post

Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu's visit to Washington this week comes at a pivotal time in U.S.-Turkish relations.

Taiwan’s Election and the Future of the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship: No End to the AffairJanuary 23, 2012 / Daniel TwiningNational Bureau of Asian Research

Despite fears of a strategic crisis in Asia,  Taiwan’s presidential elections exemplified the normalcy of its democratic process.

(Why) Should America Abandon Taiwan?January 10, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

A gathering debate is underway in Washington over whether Taiwan is a spoiler, rather than a partner, in America's Asia strategy as President Obama continues the efforts of Presidents Bush and Clinton to "pivot" towards the region.

After Iraq, a New PragmatismJanuary 09, 2012 / Nicholas SiegelThe European

The Iraq War marked the end of America’s unipolar moment, and has led to a new pragmatism in U.S. foreign policy. Going forward the United States military will need to be smaller, leaner, and smarter.

Andrew Small on China’s Role in AfghanistanJanuary 03, 2012 / Andrew SmallRÆSON

GMF Transatlatic Fellow Andrew Small discussed China's role in neighboring Afghanistan with the Danish political news magazine RÆSON.

de Hoop Scheffer on Regime ChangeDecember 30, 2011 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLa CroixGMF's Paris Office Director Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer wrote an article on the long term strategic implications of the military operation in Iraq for U.S. foreign policy, “Quand l’Irak refaconne l’Amerique”, La Croix, December 30th, 2011.North Korea: A New Kim on the BlockDecember 21, 2011 / Amy StuddartTransatlantic TakeDespite tensions between Washington and Beijing, the primary U.S. concern in North Korea — containing Pyongyang’s nuclear proliferation and aggressive behavior — was not fundamentally at odds with that of the Chinese, which was to hold the regime together. There was too much at stake, and too few incentives, to do much more.That confluence was never more than a short-term arrangement, however, and it has just been terminated with the death of North Korea’s ruler Kim Jong-Il. Belarus One Year LaterDecember 19, 2011 / Amy Studdart

One year after President Alexander Lukashenko's disputed re-election, GMF commemorates the struggle of pro-democracy activists and political prisoners in Belarus with analysis, reflections and documentary videos.

Graveyard of EmpiricismDecember 13, 2011 / Javid Ahmad, Dhruva JaishankarForeign Policy Magazine

The current round of the Afghanistan debate is riddled with mischaracterizations. While the Cold War produced a cohort of Soviet specialists, the war in Afghanistan has failed to produce sufficient regional expertise in the United States.

Wishful Mud-SlingingDecember 02, 2011 / Dhruva Jaishankar, Alina InayehIndian Express

Unlike other setbacks, the November 26 NATO assault on Pakistani soldiers that left 26 dead may have larger and irreversable consequences for the U.S. and NATO Allies....

Rocky Road to DamascusNovember 16, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express

No country is ever immune to charges of double standards in its foreign policy, and the Arab Awakening has exposed many contradictions in rhetoric and and behaviour....

France24 Interviews Ian Lesser on Greek CrisisNovember 03, 2011 / Ian LesserFrance24Did Greece just precipitate its exit from the euro? Options are slim should George Papandreou’s gambit fail. François Picard’s panel argues over the relative merits of announcing – on the eve of a G-20 Summit - a referendum on the EU bailout plan. ...Three pending agreements are idling and jobs are slipping away. It’s time to move.October 06, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily

Later this month, trade may have its day in the spotlight when, if all goes according to plan, Congress passes the long-pending U.S. free-trade agreements with Korea, Colombia, and Panama. Then the press of more immediate concerns - unemployment, spending - are likely to consign trade to the attic once again.

Pulling U.S.-Pakistan Policy Out of the ShadowsSeptember 30, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarForeign Policy

Given the urgency of resolving the conflicted relationship between the two nominal allies and the implications for Afghanistan's development, South Asian stability, counterterrorism, and the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, the absence of imaginative thinking on U.S. Pakistan policy has been pretty remarkable.

A Fighting ChanceSeptember 28, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express

Although constituting no major revelations, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen’s testimony to a Senate committee last week, in which he accused Pakistan’s government and military of exporting terrorism, has focused public attention across the US and around the world on the growing fissures in US-Pakistan ties.

Will China’s Rise Spoil the Transatlantic Relationship?September 23, 2011 / Andrew Small, Daniel M. KlimanSpiegel Online

A new survey by the German Marshall Fund finds that China's rise is leading Americans to turn their attention away from Europe and to view China as more of a threat than Europeans do. But how much do these factors threaten the trans-Atlantic relationship, and how well can it adapt to changing circumstances?

Jim Kolbe discusses the future of American foreign aid on WAMUSeptember 20, 2011 / Jim KolbeWAMU

One year ago this week, President Obama elevated global development as a "core pillar" of U.S. foreign policy, alongside diplomacy and defense. But as Congress and the White House struggle to find billions to cut from the federal budget, some advocates worry Washington's commitment to reducing global poverty is wavering.

The U.S. Public Wants DisengagementSeptember 15, 2011 / Bruce StokesCNN World, YaleGlobal

Those who criticized American unilateral interventionism under President George W. Bush may soon have an opportunity to see how they like American isolationism, especially if a Republican recaptures the White House in 2012.

Yoshihiko Noda’s vision for JapanSeptember 13, 2011 / Ryo SahashiEast Asia ForumThere is a strong tendency in Washington and other foreign capitals to believe that the Japanese politicians you know and that are practised in telling you what you want to hear are good, and that unfamiliar names are a bad sign for smooth international relations.Debating Australia’s strategic futureSeptember 01, 2011 / Daniel TwiningAustralian Broadcasting Corporation

For the first time in its history, Australia's primary economic partner is not its closest ally but its closest ally's emerging challenger. The days when Australia faced easy strategic choices and a benign external security environment are ending.

GMF’s de Hoop Scheffer on Regime Change in Politique EtrangèreSeptember 01, 2011 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferPolitique étrangère

GMF Paris Office Director Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer published an article on the U.S. policy of regime change from Iraq to the Arab revolts, in the journal Politique étrangère, vol. 76, n° 3, autumn 2011, special issue on the U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.

Erdogan’s African AdventureAugust 29, 2011 / Nicholas Siegel

Turkey's prime minister Erdogan has traveled to Mogadishu as the first Western head of state in twenty years. This reckless gesture illustrates his daring vision: Erdogan's Turkey as a regional broker whose influence extends deep into Asia and Africa. And who, according to this vision, will lose out? Europe.

India’s Arab Spring OpportunityAugust 24, 2011 / Daniel Twining, Richard FontaineThe Diplomat

In recognition of its growing global role and its status as the world’s largest democracy, India can play a unique role in supporting the democratic forces that have produced the Arab Spring. As demands for democratic change swell from Benghazi to Beijing, India’s liberal system gives it a unique strategic advantage that New Delhi should seize.

U.S.-India Relations: Can India Step Up to the Plate?August 02, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarEast-West Center's Asia Pacific Bulletin

It might seem natural to despair about the current state of US-India relations. New Delhi has eliminated two US suppliers from a landmark competition for 126 front-line fighter aircraft, a contract worth over $10 billion.

Why aren’t we working with Japan and India?July 18, 2011 / Daniel TwiningThe Washington Post

The Obama administration needs to consider what has shifted in our pivotal relationships with India and Japan and where it bears responsibility for the listlessness in our two biggest strategic partnerships in Asia.

Commentary on “Yet NATO remains central to Turkey?s wider regional role”June 23, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriSinan Ülgen’s argument that Turkey is ‘broadening its reach’ as opposed to ‘turning its back on the West’ is a welcome distinction, and one which helps us more accurately to grasp the new trends in Turkish foreign policy while refocusing the debate away from ideology towards strategy. No Time to Turn AwayJune 23, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily

European leaders dodged yet another volley of bullets this week in their ongoing debt crisis. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote. But the Greeks have little reason to celebrate, says Bruce Stokes.

Gates was far too nice about Nato’s failingsJune 15, 2011 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial TimesLast week Robert Gates gave a valedictory “shock and awe” speech in Brussels in which he excoriated the military weaknesses of Nato’s European members. But matters are a lot worse than he thinks, says Constanze StelzenmüllerSyria, Libya and the Future of NatoJune 15, 2011 / Stephen SzaboKCRWSyria is conducting repression of its own people without interference, and, in Libya, Moammar Gadhafi is hanging on longer than expected. Is NATO prepared to protect civilians for humanitarian reasons?  Stephen Szabo participates in an interview with KCRW.Belarus: No more Maneuvering between the EU and RussiaJune 13, 2011 / Joerg ForbrigThe December 19, 2010 presidential elections in Belarus have, more than any other recent event, put the complicated position of the country between the EU and Russia in the spotlight. The poll hardly differed, in process and result, from earlier elections in 2001 and 2006.Lukashenka – What are the prospects for spring in Belarus?June 09, 2011 / Joerg ForbrigopenDemocracyCaptivated by the upheavals facing Arab autocrats, few in the West have noticed the troubles of another dictator, this time on Europe's very doorstep -- Belarus' Alexander Lukashenka.Not Just a Flesh WoundJune 09, 2011 / Bruce StokesThe Doha Round is dead. The sooner the World Trade Organization recognizes that, the sooner negotiators can turn their attention to other trade-liberalization accords.Turkey’s Global StrategyJune 07, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri, Joshua W. WalkerLSE

After nearly a decade in power, Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has grown increasingly confident in its foreign policy, prompting observers to wondered aloud whether the country might be leaving "the West," forcing that group to confront the question "who lost Turkey?"

What Makes a Country Great?June 06, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational JournalA new rating system compares more than gross domestic product, and it suggests that the U.S. lags many of its peers on health, education, and personal fulfillment. By Bruce StokesMixed signalsMay 30, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Indian Express

The weeks since the killing of Osama bin Laden by US Special Forces have witnessed intensified recriminations and engagement between the US and Pakistan. Last week, President Barack Obama said that Pakistan’s obsession with India as an existential threat was misplaced, reiterating a theme he and his top advisers have embraced since assuming office.

Obama’s crucial moment in PolandMay 26, 2011 / Ivan VejvodaPresident Obama’s visit to Europe this week is giving him the opportunity to bury once and for all perceptions that have dogged his administration from the outset: that the United States has lost interest in Europe, and has put a higher priority on resetting relations with an authoritarian Russia than it has on the completion of a Europe whole, free, and at peace. UN Climate Talks and Power Politics: It’s Not about the TemperatureMay 25, 2011 / Daniel Twining

Must U.S. climate diplomacy be a wedge rather than a bridge between the United States and key international partners? GMF Senior Fellow for Asia, Daniel Twining's testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on climate diplomacy.

Turkey’s Future Reforms and the European UnionMay 24, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriTurkish Policy QuarterlyThe European Union (EU) has played a critical role in Turkey’s reform process since the end of the Cold War but over time it has become less central a factor in Turkey’s internal transformation. The goals of “Europeanization” and “democratization” are no longer fully intertwined and the ruling elite seems to be focused on power consolidation just as much as on democratic consolidation. Above the Fray No MoreMay 23, 2011 / Bruce StokesFor the United States, there is much to fear from Europe’s debt crisis but not much it can do.  When the first wave of Europe’s debt crisis hit a year ago, the U.S.’s fledgling recovery immediately began to stall. Stock-market volatility spiked to levels not seen since the depths of the financial crisis, and stock prices weakened.Bingde Comes to WashingtonMay 18, 2011 / Daniel M. KlimanThe DiplomatIn a week dominated by news of the IMF director’s apparently sordid behavior, continued Middle East unrest, and the fallout of the United States’ successful military operation in the now infamous Pakistani city of Abbottabad, the U.S. hosting of China’s top general has received comparatively little media attention.A fresh wind from the PacificMay 12, 2011 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceWith a U.S. Congressional vote on trade deals with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama now almost inevitable, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is rapidly making a priority of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, a free-trade agreement involving the United States, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.What Future for Japan?May 11, 2011 / Daniel M. Kliman

The devastation wrought by the Great Tohoku Earthquake has reinforced perceptions inside and outside Japan of the country’s seemingly irreversible slide from economic superpower to sick man of Asia. Yet it would be premature to count Japan out as a factor in international politics.

Refugee crisis: the end of Europe without borders?May 06, 2011 / Francois LafondFrançois Lafond, Director of the German Marshall Fund (Paris Office), participates in a debate on the migration related consequences of the Arab Spring.
Killing of Osama bin Laden has rehabilitated reputation of U.S. Government, officialsMay 04, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarAsian News International

The dust has already started to settle after President Barack Obama's dramatic announcement on Sunday evening that U.S. special forces had killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a late-night raid on a compound outside Abbottabad.

Why isn’t India buying American fighter jets?April 29, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

India has decided not to buy American F-16's or F/A-18's for the biggest defense tender in its history -- a pending $10 billion-plus contract for 126 multi-role combat aircraft. Following field trials, it has instead shortlisted the Rafale, made by France's Dassault, and the Typhoon, produced by a European consortium.

Dealing with a more assertive ChinaApril 21, 2011 / Andrew SmallIn a hearing at the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, GMF's Andrew Small gave testimony on Beijing's increased international assertiveness. NATO’s Last ChanceApril 13, 2011 / Andrew A. MichtaThe American Interest

As spring 2011 bursts into bloom, the NATO alliance finds itself withering on the vine. An alliance that was once the quintessential expression and spearpoint of the Transatlantic security relationship is now at risk of undermining it.

Understanding The Arab and Mediterranean RevolutionsApril 12, 2011 / Andrew A. MichtaWell before the recent unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, GMF has been a leader in conducting and disseminating research and analysis on Mediterranean political, economic, and security issues. 
Not a Chinese Century, An Indo-American OneApril 04, 2011 / Daniel TwiningGlobal Asia

China’s three decades of explosive growth and increasing influence on the global stage have often led to talk of the country dominating the 21st century. But democratic values and strategic interests shared by India and the US could upend this expectation as the two countries pull closer together.

Trade BoorApril 02, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational JournalWestern governments looked on helplessly as Beijing developed its own brand of China-first capitalism. Now, according to Bruce Stokes, they’re contemplating how to fight back.Lafond debates London Conference on LibyaApril 01, 2011 / Francois LafondGMF's François Lafond participates in a France24 debate on the recent London Conference on Libya.Germany’s unhappy abstention from leadershipMarch 28, 2011 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial Times“The world knows it can rely on us,” said Guido Westerwelle in October, when Germany had secured its goal of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. But can the world rely on Germany when it counts?Francois Lafond on Libya SituationMarch 24, 2011 / Francois LafondGMF's Francois Lafond recently conducted a series of Q&A sessions with France 24 on the unrest in Libya.The White House’s three worst assumptions on LibyaMarch 21, 2011 / Francois LafondForeign PolicyNow that the United States has joined the French and British in attacking Qaddafi's forces in Libya, Will Inboden suggests the Obama administration merits support.  However, he admits it might have now come too late.The Turkish model tested by the Arab RevolutionsMarch 20, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriAffarinternazionali.itGMF's Emiliano Alessandri suggests that while Turkey can be a source of inspiration for the reform movements in the Arab world, regional leadership emanating from Ankara might not be the logical consequence of democratization in the region.What we learned from the Security Council debate over LibyaMarch 18, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

The United Nations Security Council voted to authorize military intervention to protect the Libyan people from the depredations of Colonel Qaddafi's rule. What have we learned from the debate over the resolution and its outcome?

Francois Lafond on Unrest in EgyptMarch 11, 2011 / Francois LafondFrance 24

François Lafond participates in debate on the recent turmoil in Egypt and the Arab world, and on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 2011 Munich Conference remarks.

The 112th Congress and Post-Crisis AsiaMarch 11, 2011 / Daniel TwiningNBR

An appreciation of America's enduring strengths should be a source of confidence for the 112th Congress. With the right choices, the U.S. will meet the challenges in Asia, draw benefits from Asian growth and peace, and continue to shape the future.

Echoes of the Soviet SurgeMarch 04, 2011 / Niels AnnenForeign PolicyThe war in Afghanistan is not going well. A young president wants to pull out, but is boxed in by his generals. In Kabul, a corrupt, nominally democratic leader is losing his grip on power. A surge of ground troops has begun. The year is 1985.Essay: From earthquake to sauvignon blanc in New ZealandFebruary 25, 2011 / Jim KolbeGlobal PostAs I write this, I am sipping an iced tea and overlooking a beautiful river valley, writing with a borrowed laptop. Just a few days ago, this bliss seemed very far away. I was in Christchurch for the fourth meeting of the U.S.-New Zealand Partnership, a group that looks at different aspects of the bilateral relationship.The Pakistan ParallelFebruary 21, 2011 / Daniel TwiningWeekly Standard

Why has the Obama administration been so tepid in its support for the biggest popular revolution in the modern Arab world? The short answer is Washington’s fear that a vacuum left by President Mubarak’s departure will be filled by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.

A Comeback in Asia? How China is Shaping U.S. Foreign Policy in the PacificFebruary 17, 2011 / Niels AnnenFESDebates about America being in decline are nothing new in the history of the United States, but the extent of pessimism currently shaping the foreign policy debate in Washington is remarkable. This time it’s for real was how Gideon Rachman subtitled a recent article for Foreign Policy on American decline.The Centrality of Manufacturing to America’s Future ProsperityFebruary 16, 2011 / Bruce StokesNew America FoundationIn his State of the Union address January 25, 2011, President Barack Obama mentioned the word “manufacturing” just once. The president’s failure to acknowledge, even in passing, a sector of the economy that accounts for 11 percent of America’s GDP is a metaphor for his administration’s disdain for manufacturing as an important contributor to the nation’s future well-being.One Mouth, One Voice?February 16, 2011 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffIPOne of the prettiest phrases in politics is the demand that Europe speak “with one voice.” For 40 years, this has sounded as plausible as it is unrealistic, thanks to the capacity for Europe’s residual nationalism to promote cacophony.The facts on foreign aidFebruary 09, 2011 / Jim KolbePoliticoWith Egypt leading the news and congressional budget discussions coming to a head, there is an energetic debate now about U.S. foreign assistance.Recalibrating the Transatlantic Relationship for a Multipolar AgeJanuary 26, 2011 / Constanze Stelzenmueller, Tomas ValasekGMF's Constanze Stelzenmüller and Tomas Valasek co-author a new report with Fabrice Pothier on the Transatlantic Relationship in a Multipolar Age.Stopping the Transatlantic DriftJanuary 25, 2011 / Constanze Stelzenmueller, Tomas ValasekInternational Herald Tribune

You might call it the Obama paradox: Atlanticists on both sides of the ocean were certain that this president, inaugurated two years ago, would renew the trans-Atlantic alliance. Yet two years later, the United States and Europe seem further apart than they have ever been in their policies as much as in public attitudes.

Opponent of My OpponentJanuary 22, 2011 / Bruce StokesLast year, mutual frustration with China’s increasingly irascible behavior— coupled with deepening concern about Pakistan—led to a reboot of the Indian-American relationship.China in 2011 and beyondJanuary 19, 2011 / Martin Jacques, Joseph Quinlan, Andrew SmallGMF BlogTo coincide with President Hu Jintao's historic visit to Washington, DC, GMF has published three articles on the state of China's relations with transatlantic partners.Political reform: China’s next modernization?January 13, 2011 / Daniel TwiningWashington Post

China boasts the world's second-largest economy, delivering double-digit economic growth on a seemingly permanent basis. As President Hu Jintao prepares to visit Washington next week, his country's model of authoritarian development looks unstoppable - with troubling implications for American primacy in world affairs.

Six challenges Obama faces in Asia in 2011, and six ways to overcome themJanuary 05, 2011 / Daniel Twining

President Obama had a good year in Asia in 2010. It featured a more realistic China policy, a breakthrough visit to India, and the shelving of an irritating base dispute with Japan, but challenges loom.

Herald a new orderDecember 21, 2010 / Daniel TwiningHindustan Times

United States President Barack Obama accomplished three important things during his visit to India last month. He put to bed a notion that held sway earlier in his administration that a US-China 'G2' could jointly manage Asia and the world.

Will Turkey remain an American ally?December 14, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post

The headline stories from WikiLeaks of the last few days have focused attention on American foreign policy, with a particular focus on the strains within and with historic allies. The central role of Turkey in these revelations has caused further apprehension in U.S.-Turkish relations at an already tense moment in the alliance.

Holbrooke Remembered for Contributions to Transatlantic RelationsDecember 14, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerThe German Marshall Fund is very saddened by the death of Ambassador Richard C. Holbrooke.  He was a close friend of GMF and a committed transatlanticist.  The transatlantic community will greatly miss his tireless efforts as a diplomat.U.S.-India Relations: From Vision to ProcessNovember 18, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarAsia Pacific BulletinBarack Obama’s first visit to India as U.S. president was a welcome tonic for ties between the world’s two largest democratic powers, correcting early missteps by his administration.America: Stop lecturing China and do your homeworkNovember 17, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffRealClearWorldBarack Obama finally succeeded in uniting the world - just not the way he intended. At the G-20 summit in Seoul, countries almost universally rejected America's ideas for correcting current-account imbalances as well as its second round of quantitative easing (QE2). After an electoral shellacking at home, the U.S. president suffered a diplomatic shellacking abroad. It was one of the darker hours of American economic diplomacy.The United States and Turkey: Can They Agree to Disagree?November 16, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerBelfer Center

Given the headline-grabbing actions of Turkey this summer with regard to both Israel and Iran, a powerful narrative has emerged in which the West has "lost" Turkey.  But this narrative ignores the process of democratization in Turkey and the domestic pressures facing a populist Justice and Development Party (AKP) government.

For an Indo-American CenturyNovember 06, 2010 / Daniel TwiningIndian Express

President Obama’s trip to New Delhi and Mumbai should solidify a partnership that could shape the 21st century the way the Atlantic alliance shaped the 20th.

An EU Model for Asia?October 29, 2010 / Amy StuddartThe Straits TimesDespite being the largest meeting of heads of state and government in the world, the 8th Asia Europe Meeting (Asem) held in Brussels last week went largely unnoticed by the majority of the inhabitants of the two continents its members represent.America’s Silence By DefaultOctober 28, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerGlobal Post

As an American who has just returned from a series of discussions on international relations and America’s role in the Levant and the South Caucuses, I’m left with a sinking feeling.  It was eye-opening to see the discrepancy between America’s vibrant debates at home over the upcoming mid-term elections and virtual silence on U.S. foreign policy priorities in this region of the world.

The Return of GlobalizationOctober 21, 2010 / Kati Suominen, Gary HufbauerForeign PolicyAs the G-20 finance ministers gather in South Korea this weekend in advance of November's big meeting, they will surely notice that globalization is back -- almost. The trajectory of world trade over the last two years looks V-shaped: a drop of 12.2 percent in 2009 followed by a projected gain of 13.5 percent in 2010.  Can they agree to cooperate before protectionist urges tear them apart?A Roadmap for Revitalizing the U.S. Partnership With IndiaOctober 19, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyKorea’s on His MindOctober 15, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal

Presiden Obama will visit South Korea on November 11-12 on a post-election Asian tour that will also take him to Japan, India, and Indonesia.  The short stopover here has both strategic and trade implications for the White House.

The Limits of a Popular American PresidentOctober 12, 2010 / Zsolt NyiriRealClearWorldThe popularity of Barack Obama as a presidential candidate in 2008 rivaled rock stars in Western Europe. His election as president of the United States suggested that he would open a new chapter in the U.S.-European relationship. But Europeans' initial euphoria about the Obama presidency, reflected in early polling data and his 2009 Nobel Peace Prize, was a product of his inspirational rhetoric and spoke more for the hope they put in him rather than for any real achievements.What’s the Big Idea?October 01, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarPragati

There are expectations that Barack Obama's maiden trip to India as US president in November will be underwhelming. A month is a long time in international politics, and there is still a small, albeit narrowing, opportunity to create a mutually-acceptable and -beneficial organisational framework that would not only make this visit a personal success for Mr Obama, but also create a political mechanism that serves the interests both of the United States and India.

NATO and the Asian powers: Cooperation and its LimitsSeptember 30, 2010 / Andrew SmallStiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) - German Institute for International and Security AffairsThe patchwork of initiatives established between NATO and Asia has never been framed by any overarching region-specific rationale. Insofar as there is a strategic imperative driving outreach in the region, it has been an effort to draw in "global partners" into closer cooperation with existing alliance operations - primarily in Afghanistan - rather than any broader process of identifying shared security concerns either with the major Asian powers or even with traditional partners in the region.Double-Teaming ChinaSeptember 24, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal

Baroness Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s new foreign minister, will come to Washington next week on a mission. One of her goals is to strengthen the transatlantic dialogue about China.

Turkey Drifts AwaySeptember 24, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational JournalAdd Turkey to the Obama administration’s lengthening list of foreign-policy
headaches.America’s silence makes us complicit in Russia’s crimesSeptember 20, 2010 / Bruce StokesWashington PostWhat will it take for higher levels of the Obama administration to unequivocally condemn arrests of activists, violence against protesters, pressure on journalists, and murders of government critics in Russia?China’s maritime agression should be wake-up call to JapanSeptember 20, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

The Sino-Japanese standoff over Japan's detention of a Chinese trawler captain who acted aggressively towards the Japanese coast guard in waters near the disputed Senkaku islands is part of a larger pattern of Chinese assertiveness towards its neighbors over the past few years.

Search for Plan BSeptember 03, 2010 / Bruce StokesThe image of U.S. helicopters airlifting Americans from Saigon rooftops in 1975 continues to haunt U.S. policy makers 35 years later as they grope for an exit from Afghanistan. With parliamentary elections scheduled for September 18 and the drawdown of U.S. forces in the country slated to begin by mid-2011, the debate about a Plan B for Afghanistan has begun in earnest.Beijing is Worth a Missed Dinner – Lady Ashton Goes to ChinaSeptember 02, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic TakeBaroness Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, chose to pass up dinner at the White House and instead pressed ahead with her trip to China, where she inaugurated a new strategic dialogue with her Chinese counterpart. Despite some consternation in Paris, Ashton’s decision reflects a well-founded conviction that China policy is one of the few areas where the new post-Lisbon foreign policy machinery could make a real difference.Big problems in Baku, and the man to deal with themAugust 17, 2010 / Andrew SmallForeignPolicy.comThe United States badly needs an ambassador in Azerbaijan. the United States has been without an ambassador in Azerbaijan for more than a year and the current nominee has been delayed in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. What's taking so long?Russia must be part of the European utopiaAugust 15, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerTwo years after the 2008 war between Georgia and Russia, it is time for the US and Europe to realise that this was a watershed moment for the west. Of course, it was a disaster for Georgia, but it also sent a shock wave across the post-Soviet space.In the Russian wildfires, will Putin get burned?August 15, 2010 / Lilia ShevtsovaRussians fainting in the subway. People jumping into city pools and the Moscow River, and in many cases drowning.  Morgues running out of space and corpses piling up on the floor. These seem like scenes from a horror movie, but they are all too real.When Sanctions Work: The Belarus BuckleAugust 11, 2010 / Damon WilsonAlmost as soon as the United Nations Security Council voted in June for a new sanctions resolution against Iran, doubters questioned whether it would have any real impact on Iran’s behavior.Walk, But Learn to Chew Gum, TooAugust 10, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerHeinrich Boell FoundationThe Russo-Georgian war was a defining moment for the United States and Europe, showing the flaws of Western policy for the region. The challenge of crafting a coherent and effective policy for Eastern Europe remains unresolved on both sides of the Atlantic.Why India has mixed emotions about ObamaAugust 06, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

If this is truly to be a partnership of equals between the world's predominant power and its next democratic superpower, both New Delhi and Washington share a responsibility to propel it forward. If Obama's commitment to that process is less robust than that of his predecessors, all the more reason for India's leaders to step up theirs.

Afghanistan: The Consequences of a “Conceptual Withdrawal”July 29, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Spiegel Online; Real Clear World

"We have moved from a narrative, which lasted for years, that everything was fine when it wasn’t to a narrative that everything is going wrong when it isn’t.” This lament from a former Western official, who, like others quoted in this piece, did not speak for attribution, summed up the frustrations of many in Kabul about the growing disconnect between the political timetables inside and outside the country. The concern is not only that the various transition deadlines are unrealistic, but that their very existence is creating counterproductive pressures that will make them even harder to achieve.

How the EU is seen in Asia, and what to do about itJuly 28, 2010 / Andrew SmallEuropean ViewIn Asia's major capitals, the last few years have seen marked shifts in perspectives on the European Union. Not so long ago the EU was viewed as everything from a rising political power to a model for regional order. The combination of economic stagnation and the painful process of fixing the EU's institutional arrangements has been part of the problem.Medvedev Is No DemocratJuly 26, 2010 / Andrew SmallThe Moscow TimesThose who had hoped that President Dmitry Medvedev would lead Russia to a more democratic, Western-friendly future have experienced a roller coaster of emotions recently. They were uplifted by a speech Medvedev gave before Russia’s ambassadors two weeks ago in which he spoke of the need for “modernization alliances” with the United States and other Western countries. Three days later, however, Medvedev took responsibility for a law that would dangerously expand the powers of the Federal Security Service.Why the U.S. can’t look to NATO or the EU to support its Russia strategyJuly 23, 2010 / Stephen SzaboEurope's WorldEurope is proving a foreign policy disappointment to the Obama Administration as it struggles to propound a clearer strategy toward Russia. Washington now recognizes, says Stephen Szabo, that only Berlin has the key to a new relationship with Moscow.More doubtful about the gains, but still committed to the EUJuly 15, 2010 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceEuropean publics are still Europhiles in theory, but there is growing Euroscepticism in practice. From Stalwart To Skeptic, Germany Rethinks EU RoleJuly 13, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerNPR's Morning EditionThe financial calamity of the European Union's sovereign debt woes has shaken the pillars of the postwar ideal of a united Europe. Germany, long a postwar champion and financier of European integration, is flexing its muscles more independently. And more of its citizens are questioning the country's leading role in the European project.U.S. Acted Too Hastily in Spy SwapJuly 12, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerThe Moscow Times

Most analysts in the United States are praising U.S. President Barack Obama and the way his administration handled the spy swap. Many in Russia, by comparison, are blasting the Foreign Intelligence Service for an inept, clumsy spy operation that embarrassed their country. Both governments seem eager to put the controversy behind them as quickly as possible, but many questions remain unanswered before this episode gets relegated to the history books.

The Congress on the RhineJuly 10, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational JournalThe European Parliament, newly powerful, is becoming a magnet for U.S. lobbyists.Intensifying China-Pakistan TiesJuly 07, 2010 / Andrew SmallCouncil on Foreign RelationsOn Wednesday, China and Pakistan signed pacts on cooperation in agriculture, healthcare, justice, media, economy, and technology. Both sides also vowed to step up joint efforts against terrorism. But while the relationship between the two countries is strong, it's shadowed by Beijing's concerns about Pakistan's security threat and its impact on Chinese investment and personnel in Pakistan.China in Check? The Limits to Beijing’s AssertivenessJuly 07, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic TakeThe U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue capped off a three-month period that has returned the Sino-U.S. relationship to a state of fragile equilibrium. Strategic mistrust remains pervasive and there are few issues on which the two sides genuinely see eye-to-eye. But the missteps of 2009 provided some important lessons for better management of future differences.David Kramer discusses the future of Russian-U.S. relations following the arrest of ten alleged Russian spiesJuly 06, 2010 / Andrew SmallC-SPANDavid Kramer, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow, discusses the arrest by the FBI of ten people in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia suspected of being undercover Russian agents and what this could mean for U.S. and Russia relations.China presses ahead with Pakistan nuclear deal – and contemplates U.S. withdrawal from AfghanistanJuly 06, 2010 / Andrew SmallGMF BlogGMF's Andrew Small blogs on his recent trip to China to discuss Afghanistan and Pakistan, including interviews on the Chashma-3 and 4 deal with Pakistan.Zardari’s Visit to China (audio interview)July 05, 2010 / Andrew SmallDeutsche Welle RadioPakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is traveling to China on Tuesday for high-level talks on nuclear cooperation. Andrew Small talks to Deutsche Welle Radio about the effects Zardari's visit is likely to have on the balance of power in the region.How to prevent another war in the Southern CaucasusJuly 03, 2010 / Andrew SmallThe Washington Post

After Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's recent visit, the Obama administration wants to prove it has a strategy to deepen ties with allies such as Poland while it pursues a reset with Russia, so it has sent Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on a whirlwind tour of Central and Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. The trip also seeks to blunt conservative criticism that Washington is sacrificing allies for the sake of reconciliation with Moscow.

Clinton to Kyiv: Speaking truth to powerJuly 01, 2010 / Andrew SmallMoldova.orgOf all the stops on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s upcoming trip to Europe, none is more important than Ukraine. This is a country heading in the wrong direction—as evidenced by the disturbing and rapid rollback of its democratic gains. Much is at stake, for the implications of a Ukraine moving toward a non-democratic, if not authoritarian, system of governance are enormous not just for Ukraine, but also for Europe and the United States.China’s Caution on Afghanistan-PakistanJune 30, 2010 / Andrew SmallWashington QuarterlyAlthough the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan looks like a prime candidate for closer cooperation between the United States and China, prospects of pursuing complementary policies will remain limited until China fundamentally reappraises its strategy for dealing with extremism in the region.Duck Soup (1933): An IntroductionJune 30, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerSpeech to Junge DGAPConstanze Stelzenmüller introduces the movie Duck Soup in advance of a screening for the Junge DGAP’s Foreign Policy Movie Series. Duck Soup, she says, is a political satire despite the protestations of the Marx Brothers themselves, who claimed they were just "trying to get a laugh," according to Groucho Marx.‘No-One Is Going to Be Bought Off by a Tiny Revaluation’June 26, 2010 / Andrew SmallSpiegel OnlineIn the run-up to the G-20 summit, China has tried to placate the United States with a revaluation of its currency. But the move is not a real change of course, explains the German Marshall Fund's Andrew Small in a Spiegel Online interview. He argues that the Chinese leadership is more concerned with deflecting external criticism than with the health of the global economy.‘A lack of fire in the belly,’ concludes Pakistan on Obama’s war strategyJune 25, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

No matter how talented General David Petraeus proves to be commanding American and NATO forces, it is hard to see how our Afghan strategy can be successful absent a strategic reorientation by the Obama administration that creates a different calculus for leaders in Kabul and Rawalpindi (headquarters of the Pakistani armed forces) with regard to the Afghan endgame.

Modernizing Russia’s Economy… and PoliticsJune 24, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyU.S. policymakers for years have lamented their lack of leverage in pushing for democratic reform and respect for human rights in Russia. Well, now we may have an opportunity, but the question is whether we will make use of it. If Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is serious in wanting our help with his economic modernization agenda, we should insist that he needs to make measurable progress in political liberalization first.No, it’s not a gentler, kinder RussiaJune 22, 2010 / Daniel TwiningWashington Post

Ahead of Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Washington this week, a "leaked" Russian foreign policy document is causing some Russia watchers to wonder whether the Russian president is shifting his country toward a more positive, pro-Western stance. A careful read of the 18,000-word document does not support such wishful thinking. Read

Berlin, the Euro and Europe: It?s German Question Time?AgainJune 19, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerKeynote Lecture at IPRI Summer School on German Unification and the New Europe, Óbidos

Is all this criticism justified? Is it true that the Germans still have a special debt to Europe—and that they are neglecting it? Is it accurate to say that Germany has departed from its earlier pro-European stance, and is becoming more nationalist? Or are we in fact being held to a higher standard than other countries? And if so, is that fair? Are we really failing to answer the Question, or are our friends and neighbors asking the wrong questions?

Twenty Years of Western Democracy Assistance in Central and Eastern EuropeJune 15, 2010 / Pavol DemešIDEABefore the European Union and its allies can effectively promote democracy in other countries, they need to address the internal problems brought on by the global economic crisis, from which they have not yet fully recovered. Democracy assistance needs to be tailored to the specific needs and expectations of each country and handled with tact and with respect for local democracy activists. Donor countries also need to be aware of ways that pursuing their own economic or security goals can tarnish their democratic credibility. Despite all these challenges, recent history has provided ample evidence that the human spirit and solidarity can overcome even the direst obstacles and may be our strongest resource in the quest for democracy and cooperation in Europe and beyond.Did global imbalances cause the crisis?June 14, 2010 / Kati SuominenVoxEUAfter the Reset Button questions lingerJune 09, 2010 / Kati SuominenForeign PolicyThere is no denying the vastly improved tone and rapport between the American and Russian presidents compared to the end of the Bush-Putin days. But before people get too carried away, let's focus on two recent developments that remind us of the challenges we face in dealing with Russia.The implications of Hatoyama’s downfall for the U.S.-Japan allianceJune 02, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

A new year, another new Japanese prime minister. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's resignation makes him the fourth Japanese leader in four years to fall from power. What are the implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance?

Brave New World? Emerging Powers Need to Show Responsible LeadershipMay 28, 2010 / Niels AnnenSocial Europe JournalMuch has been written about the world becoming multipolar, but nobody seems to be able to tell what such a world would actually look like. After the spectacular nuclear deal between Turkey, Brazil and Iran, the picture becomes a little clearer and it seems that the P5 will have to share some of the world’s attention.Pushing Merkel: wie Amerika über die Kanzlerin denktMay 12, 2010 / Niels AnnenHandelsblattThe current crisis of the Euro has shaken American confidence in the EU and the president is working the phones to encourage European leaders to take action. Nevertheless the American debate about the EU is multilayered and depends strongly on how Americans themselves see the future of their country. In a multi-polar world, the relevance of alliances is growing.Diplomatic NegligenceMay 10, 2010 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly Standard

Despite the many affinities between the United States and India, the Obama administration risks putting India back into its subcontinental box, treating it as little more than a regional power, while it elevates China, through both rhetoric and policy, to the level of a global superpower on par with the United States.

New START vs. missile defense: is it one or the other?April 30, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe Obama administration is already gearing up its push for Senate ratification of the recently signed START agreement between the United States and Russia. As senior administration officials make their case around town at various think tanks and before Congress, they need to do a better job of refining their message to make sure it stands up to scrutiny.Getting Asia right means getting India rightApril 27, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

President Obama's Asia policy remains a work in progress with some real possibilities to advance key relationships. But losing India may do more to weaken the U.S. position in Asia than any number of accomplishments in relations with Japan, South Korea, and other partners.

Helping Obama Close Guantanamo is in Europe’s InterestApril 24, 2010 / Niels AnnenWith a record approval rating of 88% in Germany, President Barak Obama shouldn't be too much concerned about his plea to Europeans to help him close the detention Camp Guantanamo at the US base in Cuba. But sympathy alone does not lead to a new policy. Obama is learning this the hard way. And Europeans may miss a unique opportunity to influence the way in which the US is going to deal with terrorists in the future.The BRICs: Building blocks of a new world order that diminishes the West?April 23, 2010 / Daniel TwiningReal Clear World

China is a manufacturing superpower; India is the world's largest democracy and "knowledge power"; Russia is a potential "energy superpower," according to the U.S. National Intelligence Council; and Brazil dominates a region lacking any great power competitor. An alliance among these behemoths could change history in ways that diminish the West.

” A normal President” – Barack Obama, one year into his PresidencyApril 20, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff" A normal President" - Barack Obama, one year into his Presidency (German Language - in "Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte"Yanukovych needs to keep Ukraine on democratic pathApril 16, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffKyiv PostUkrainian President Viktor Yanukovych must have returned to Kyiv a happy man. His visit to Washington is viewed by both American and Ukrainian officials as a success. Yanukovych even got praise from the editorial pages of the Washington Post - "A star at Obama's nuclear summit," was the title of the piece by Jackson Diehl -- for his announcement that Ukraine would abandon its stockpile of highly enriched uranium. Indeed, this announcement offered Obama the first concrete deliverable he could point to as some 40-plus leaders gathered in Washington for the nuclear security summit. That was smart politics on the Ukrainian side.American silence while Kyrgyzstan burnedApril 14, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffForeign PolicyNothing sums up U.S. policy toward Kyrgyzstan than these contrasting images: at the same time that thousands of Kyrgyz were taking to the streets protesting against their corrupt authoritarian leader, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Bakiyev's son, Maksim, was arriving in Washington for consultations with U.S. officials. While Kyrgyzstan literally was burning, U.S. officials were prepared for business-as-usual talks with Maksim, who, like his father, has been accused of engaging in massive corruption and human rights abuses.Obama’s Victory Lap in PragueApril 05, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffForeign PolicyThanks to his personal intervention in ironing out final sticking points, Barack Obama is heading to Prague in a few days to sign a new arms control treaty with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. When the glow wears off, the hard work of winning ratification will get started in the U.S. Senate, where tough questioning can be expected from many Republicans.Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century: The Role of Korean-American Partnership in Shaping Asia’s Emerging OrderApril 01, 2010 / Daniel TwiningThe U.S.-ROK Alliance in the 21st Century (book chapter)

While the United States' other relationships in Asia have transformed as the region has re-emerged, the relationship with South Korea remains stuck in the past, frozen by the continuing conflict on the Korean peninsula. South Korea and the United States will both benefit from a strengthened alliance, positioning both countries in a space where they can adapt and thrive in an Asian century.

State of DenialMarch 29, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express

The last few weeks have been marked by perceived divergences between India and the United States over l'affaire Headley and Pakistan's request for a civilian nuclear agreement. Indian commentators, already frustrated by the direction of U.S.-India relations under President Barack Obama, have used the two incidents to question the potential for a long-term strategic partnership between New Delhi and Washington.

Good NeighborsMarch 29, 2010 / Jörg HimmelreichInternationale PolitikFor decades, suspicion and outright animosity characterized relations between Turkey and its neighbors. The country's allies were to be found only in the West. Recently, however, the Turkish government has managed to implement a foreign policy shift of historic, even revolutionary proportions. Brussels should put to use the opportunities resulting from Turkey's international realignment.Merkel wird den Frust der Türken spürenMarch 28, 2010 / Niels Annen, Thomas StraubhaarDie WeltThe EU needs an economically prosperous and politically strong Turkey. Therefore, the EU should search for ways to remove the blockades that characterize the ongoing negotiations for a EU membership of Turkey.Der Zorn auf die Griechen wird die Türken treffenMarch 27, 2010 / Thomas StraubhaarDie WeltIt will become an historical irony that the Euro crisis provoked by Greece will hit Turkey hardest. The mood in Western Europe is against a further enlargement by economically weaker countries. Therefore, a fast end of the negotiations and a Turkish EU membership has become more difficult to achieve.Friend or Foe: Does the Obama administration know the difference?March 22, 2010 / Thomas StraubhaarForeign PolicyA slam against the Obama administration heard with greater frequency these days is that it is much harder on its allies than on its enemies (even former enemies). At the same time that it desperately tries to win over "new friends," the administration treats its old friends either with indifference (e.g., most of Europe) or a critical eye. A perfect example of this is the administration's handling of the recent blow-up with Israel over settlements in East Jerusalem as compared with its response to Russia's announcement last week on nuclear reactors in Iran.L’alternativa al sarkozismoinate?March 20, 2010 / Francois LafondEuropaDomenica i francesi torneranno alle urne per il secondo turno delle regionali. Difficilmente, questo test elettorale potrà fornire indicazioni precise sugli elementi che caratterizzeranno la seconda metà mandato di un presidente che si è presentato come un riformatore e un modernizzatore. Malgrado ciò, dall'esito del primo turno è possibile leggere alcune tendenze.
The crisis between the United States and Israel was overdueMarch 17, 2010 / Niels AnnenDIE ZEITEver since Israeli Minister of the Interior Eli Ishai announced the building of new settlements in East Jerusalem, relations between Israel and the United States have been strained. In this analysis, Niels Annen offers a different perspective from Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff's article that called the settlements a "wrong dispute at the wrong time," and not worth risking the U.S.-Israeli relationship. Annen instead emphasizes that it's time to address big issues like settlements now, and that the U.S. is interested in finding a peaceful solution for the region for more than one reason.On this Asia trip, Obama could take a cue from BushMarch 16, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy

When it comes to Asia, perhaps serving administration officials should spend less time slamming their predecessors' record and more time studying up on it.

Settlements are not worth this fightMarch 16, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDIE ZEITFinally the Americans have called out Israel on its settlement policy. It took the embarrassment of a Vice President for the U.S. to finally say: enough is enough. While this move may be a milestone in the overdue recalibration of U.S. policy vis a vis Israel it does not help the peace process.
Chinese CheckersFebruary 20, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational JournalAs China grows more powerful, the diplomatic game becomes harder, something the Obama administration discovered to its dismay in year one of its China policy.What the capture of Mullah Baradar says about Pakistan’s intentionsFebruary 16, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe capture of Taliban commander Mullah Baradar in a combined Pakistani-American intelligence operation in Karachi is a major development in the war on terror. This is true not only, and obviously, with reference to the military campaign against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Perhaps more profoundly, it is also true with reference to the future of U.S.-Pakistan relations.Friendship, WarilyFebruary 13, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational JournalThe United States and India have become closer than at any time in recent history. But two magnets can repel as well as attract.Dealing With a More Assertive ChinaFebruary 08, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Al Jazeera; Forbes; The Diplomat; RealClearWorld; Foreign Policy; The Atlantic CommunityThe mood on China in Western capitals is beginning to darken. From cyber-attacks to obstinacy in Copenhagen, Beijing's assertiveness and the hardening tone of its diplomacy are prompting a rethink. If the competitive aspects of the relationship with China are going to dominate in the years ahead, have the United States and Europe got their strategies right? And if not, what are the options?The Imperialists from MoscowFebruary 06, 2010 / Andrew SmallSueddeutsche ZeitungEighteen months ago, a war took place in Europe between Russia and Georgia. It was a little war by the standards of modern warfare but it nevertheless shook the world. It sparked the greatest crisis in European security since the Balkan wars of the mid-1990s and brought Russia and the West to the edge of a new Cold War. Moscow not only invaded a neighbor for the first time since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. It broke the cardinal rule of post-Cold War European security that borders in Europe would never again be changed by force of arms.Cracking ChimericaFebruary 04, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Indian Express

American foreign policy concepts can be as fickle as fashion trends. The most recent catchphrase is “G-2”, popularised by Zbigniew Brzezinski, and meant to reflect a necessary and desirable duopoly between the US and China. The Obama administration was seen as buying into this concept when it institutionalised a strategic and economic dialogue between the two countries last year.

The Difficult Triangle of the Pacific PowersFebruary 02, 2010 / Jörg HimmelreichNeue Zürcher ZeitungIndia, China, and the United States rely on each other as littoral states of the Pacific, but they also compete with each other at the same time. Washington’s rapprochement to Beijing will fail in the long run if it does not consider the encumbered Chinese-Indian relationship.Getting Afghanistan right in LondonJanuary 29, 2010 / Daniel TwiningTransatlantic TakeIf there is one thing the allies can accomplish in London, it is to signal to the Afghan Taliban - and to all Afghans and neighboring powers sitting on the fence, waiting to cast their lot with the winning side - that NATO is in this fight to win it.The New Superpower: ‘The Chinese Are Unready by Their Own Admission’ for Global LeadershipJanuary 29, 2010 / Andrew SmallSpiegel OnlineThe United States and China have grown so powerful that people around the world speak reverentially of a "G-2." But there are cracks in the alliance, as the German Marshall Fund's Andrew Small explains in a Spiegel Online interview. Frustration is growing in the United States over Beijing's lack of cooperation on economic issues.Some American Priorities For 2010January 23, 2010 / Francois LafondDéfense NationaleU.S. President Barack Obama’s greatest achievement during his first year in office has been to dramatically improve the image of the United States around the world. His actions and ideas are viewed favorably by most Europeans. This “Obama effect” has also affected U.S. foreign policy. From a European perspective, Obama now has four main foreign policy goals to achieve. The most crucial test for the Obama administration in 2010 will be the so-called “clash of civilizations.” The Israeli-Palestinian peace process is stalled, and Iranian nuclear negotiations are in a deadlock. Nevertheless, Obama’s open-handed and global rhetoric will help the regional actors to better engage with one and other and lead to new paths of progress. Obama’s three other foreign policy challenges are: “afghanizing” the ongoing “war of necessity,” trying an open-handed approach to Russia, and putting back on track the fundamental issue of strategic alliances such as NATO. These are the four areas on which U.S. foreign policy will be assessed.Get China right by getting Asia rightJanuary 21, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyIn 2010, President Obama would be well-advised to shift from an "inside-out" to an "outside-in" Asia policy. Rather than taking an approach to this dynamic region that starts with Beijing, raising fears of a Sino-American condominium, he could follow former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's maxim that "getting China right means getting Asia right." Putin Is Medvedev’s Biggest SpoilerJanuary 13, 2010 / Daniel TwiningThe Moscow TimesComments by Prime Minister Vladimir Putin in late December must have come as an unwelcome surprise to Presidents Barack Obama and Dmitry Medvedev as they try to conclude a new U.S.-Russian arms control agreement to replace the Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, or START, that expired on Dec. 5. But this was not the first time that Putin has thrown cold water on Medvedev’s efforts.A new decade and a new transatlantic strategy?January 07, 2010 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice.comA new year, a new European Commission and a U.S. president who can no longer get by simply by not being George Bush create an opportunity to take a new look at the U.S.-EU strategic relationship for the new decade.Ein ganz normaler PräsidentJanuary 06, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffZeitA year after taking office as the 44th President of the United States Barack Obama has transformed himself from a modern day Messiah to a perfectly normal President. Some speculate whether a failed presidency is in the making. But, by any measure, this is anything but a failed presidency, at least so far. Three accomplishments mark Obama’s first year as President: he has prevented a recession from becoming a depression by coordinating the global response to the crisis and introducing financial market reforms; he has presented a package of economic and social reforms to modernize America; and he has reconceptualized American foreign policy to fit the era of multipolarity. Failure this is not.Cheer up America: You’re still on top of the world.January 05, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe United States need not be so pessimistic about its future. Its position in the world continues to grow in significance, and there is little indication that it is entering a period of decline - even in the face of Asia's rise.The Self-Chained RepublicJanuary 01, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerInternationale PolitikThe lonely decision by a German colonel in Kunduz to call in a NATO airstrike on Taliban forces who had hijacked a pair of fuel trucks may yet become a maturity test for Germany's political culture, twenty years after the fall of the Wall. A specially created investigative committee in the German federal legislature will now examine who was responsible for the many weaknesses and flaws apparent in the incident itself, as well as in its handling. But it is unlikely to examine the fundamental issues at the heart of German security policy: Does Germany even have a security policy which deserves that name? Does it have a strategy? How effective are the actors, institutions and instruments of German security policy?The new pecking orderDecember 27, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDer TagesspiegelCopenhagen has shown the globe to be in transition. The multipolar world may be arriving, but so far multipolarity means chaos. In such moments of transition it is not quite clear where power rests.Russia’s ‘sphere’ in EuropeDecember 26, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe Washington PostAs Washington and Moscow zero in on a new strategic arms control treaty, it is time to look at what lies ahead in U.S.-Russian relations. The greatest gap between Western and Russian thinking today may not be on Afghanistan or Iran. It may well be on Europe.Lessons of the Copenhagen discordDecember 21, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffFinancial Times

It will be discussed for some time whether the Copenhagen accord represents an unsatisfactory compromise or an unmitigated failure. Whatever the ultimate answer, there are some preliminary lessons that can be drawn from a memorably chaotic global gathering.

Resetting U.S. Russian Relations: It Takes TwoDecember 16, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffWashington QuarterlyPresident Barack Obama deserves credit for his initial efforts to reverse the deterioration in relations between the United States and Russia. The downward spiral in bilateral ties accelerated by Russia's invasion of Georgia last year has ended for now, but relations are not likely to improve appreciably because of fundamental differences in values, interests, and outlook between the two countries' leaderships.U.S. Expectations of Germany After the Election: A Highway to Hell or a Stairway to HeavenDecember 01, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffAmerican Institute for Contemporary German Studies

The recent German election presents real opportunity for the German-American relationship, but that opportunity will be bounded by both the harsh realities of the challenges both countries face in 2009 and beyond.

Taking the HeatDecember 01, 2009 / Dhruva JaishankarPragati - The Indian National Interest Review

Nobody said climate change negotiations would be easy. On both the WTO’s Doha Round and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, India found itself at the vanguard of opposition to the West, with damaging but fortunately not disastrous political consequences. It appeared that a similar outcome was inevitable on climate negotiations.

Why Obama needs to play his cards right with IndiaNovember 24, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyAs Obama sits down with Prime Minister Singh, he should consider India as the key ally of the U.S. in Asia, both in terms of practical cooperation on global issues and in terms of ensuring that India continues to rise as an alternative to China, sharing the values of the West. A Gift (in Disguise) to Europe and Japan: the G2November 18, 2009 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic TakeA 'G2' is unlikely. Substantial difference between the United States and China make accord difficult to reach, but discussion about the concept puts pressure on China to be more globally responsible - and that is a good thing for Europe and Japan. Afghanistan and Pakistan: Time for the Hatoyama Administration to Show Japan’s Latent PowerNovember 18, 2009 / Daniel TwiningWedgeIn a day where Japan's importance in the world seems to be diminishing, 'AfPak' is a valuable opportunity for Japan to demonstrate that it is still an important player in both Asia and the world at large, as well as to support its transatlantic allies. A Cold WindNovember 12, 2009 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express

Barack Obama may be the first post-Boomer president, but he appears to retain a similar orientation to Clinton in matters pertaining to India, although for his generation India is more closely associated with Satyam than satyagraha.

A crib sheet for President Obama’s upcoming Asian summitryNovember 10, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe United States is at the center of the international system in Asia, and desirably so. During his visit to Asia, President Obama should show that he has a strategic vision for sustaining American leadership in the region.What to Read on Turkish PoliticsNovember 01, 2009 / Ian LesserForeign PolicyThe reach of Turkey's cultural and foreign policies extends from the Balkans to Western China, and the country plays an increasingly important role in debates about the future of both Europe and the Middle East.The Siren Song of “Normalcy”November 01, 2009 / Ian LesserThe American Interest

"Normal" tends not to be an adjective that individuals or nations cherish for themselves. Who wants to be merely normal, average or typical when one can be exceptional or superior? Germans do, and it is not hard to understand why. As a united polity only since 1870, Germany's bloody odyssey from the Franco-Prussian War to World War I, revolution, depression, Hitler, World War II, the Holocaust, and a country divided into two diametrically opposed political systems defines its historic "normalcy." At least for Germans born after World War II, normal meant being deviant, subject to a kind of metaphysical disfigurement, symbolized in concrete by the hideous wall sprawled across Berlin. Thus to be genuinely normal meant Germany must divorce itself from its own history, an abnormal enterprise-and so a problem of another sort. To what extent has Germany achieved this divorce and solved this problem?

Is China a new ideological superpower? Don’t bet on it.October 29, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyChina's political system makes it an outlier in a democratic Asia, rather than an example of a new model. Afghanistan-Pakistan: Bringing China (Back) InOctober 23, 2009 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic TakeOf all the regional actors engaged in Afghanistan and Pakistan, China's role is perhaps the most opaque. Alternately coaxed as a potential savior and condemned as a parasitic free-rider, the transatlantic allies have not yet worked out how to harness Beijing's undoubted influence and economic clout. This is not altogether surprising: China's motives are complex and at times contradictory. But if the United States and Europe play their hand well, an opening exists - Beijing's security calculus is changing in ways that are increasingly favorable to greater cooperation.No More Low-Hanging FruitOctober 14, 2009 / Pavol DemešTransitions Online

This year found the Euro-Atlantic community not only busy with pressing economic and political issues but also commemorating several important milestones – the 70th anniversary of the start of World War II, the 60th anniversary of NATO's founding, the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. This last opened space for unprecedented changes in the former Soviet bloc.

Now Comes the Hard PartOctober 05, 2009 / Pavol DemešThe International Herald Tribune

Europe is in love with Barack Obama, according to recent polls. But will this affair of the heart be a brief flirtation or something more enduring? Like many relationships, the partners themselves may not really know until times get tough. With troubles looming in Afghanistan and Iran, that day of reckoning is fast approaching.

Missing from the Georgia ReportOctober 03, 2009 / Jörg HimmelreichThe New York TimesThe Russian-Georgian "five-day war" in August 2008 did not end the political conflict: It has all the potential to explode into a new armed confrontation any day.Can Berlin and Washington Agree on Russia?September 28, 2009 / Stephen SzaboWashington QuarterlyBoth Russia and Germany are back on the U.S. agenda. Russia will be a key element of a wide array of policies to the Obama administration, including dealing with Iran and the construction of a broader nonproliferation regime, energy security, nuclear arms reductions, and Afghanistan. Russia policy will also be central to U.S. designs for NATO, including how to deal with Georgia and Ukraine, and the viability of a pan-European security structure.A Deal with Moscow? Don’t Bet on ItSeptember 25, 2009 / Stephen SzaboForeign PolicyWill Medvedev's words actually translate into Russian actions when it comes time to draft a tough resolution and vote? The Obama team appears to expect the Russians to go along, especially after its decision last week to scrap Bush administration plans for missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic. McFaul and other senior officials have rejected the notion of such a deal.Shattered Confidence in EuropeSeptember 19, 2009 / Stephen SzaboWashington PostPresident Obama's decision to shelve the Bush administration's missile defense plans has created a crisis of confidence in Washington's relations with Central and Eastern Europe. The defense architecture the administration proposes may make more strategic sense in addressing the immediate Iranian threat. Nevertheless, it runs the risk of shattering the morale and standing of transatlantic leaders in the region who now feel politically undermined and exposed.Placating Russia Won’t WorkSeptember 18, 2009 / Stephen SzaboThe Washington Post

Russian leaders never liked the idea that the United States, Poland and the Czech Republic were cooperating on missile defense to confront an emerging Iranian threat. With the Obama administration's announcement that it is indeed abandoning the Polish and Czech sites, Moscow's complaining appears to have worked.

A Serious MistakeSeptember 17, 2009 / Stephen SzaboNew York Times Room for Debate Blog

While not surprised by President Obama’s decision, I’m nonetheless very disappointed and think it’s a serious mistake.   Leaders in Moscow, by comparison, must feel victorious. Coming days before Obama meets Dmitri Medvedev in New York and Pittsburgh , the decision clearly seems timed to remove from the U.S.-Russian agenda an issue that the Russians didn’t like — namely, that we were working with Poland and the Czech Republic on missile defense.

Our Pakistan ProblemSeptember 14, 2009 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly Standard

What national interest does the United States have in Afghanistan? According to recent polls, more and more Americans doubt there is any. This flagging support partly reflects the job the Obama administration has done explaining its goals and strategy in Afghanistan to a skeptical public. But it also reflects the underappreciated fact that succeeding in Afghanistan and defeating America's enemies there, as important as that is in its own right, is even more so for its effects in shaping Pakistan's future.

Europe and the Obama BounceSeptember 09, 2009 / Daniel TwiningThe New York Times

European attitudes toward the United States have experienced up and downs during past decades - with significant drops in support during the Vietnam war, the Euromissile crisis of the early 1980s or the war in Kosovo in 1999. But never before in the history of trans-Atlantic polling have we seen the kind of plunge that took place under George W. Bush.

Fighting Chance Chapter 13: Europe and NatoSeptember 08, 2009 / Ian LesserFighting ChanceSeveral points are worth noting as context for discussing trends and shocks in Europe. First, the region is more dynamic than it appears. At first glance the Western Europe/North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) region seems relatively settled, with a reasonably predictable trajectory, few opportunities for conflict, and gradual social, economic, and political adjustments—a place of gentle trends and few shocks. Is this realistic?Ironed Curtain: The Biggest Loser in the EU’s Report on the Russia-Georgia War is Europe.September 08, 2009 / Ian LesserThe New RepublicAfter the Russo-Georgian War in August 2008, the European Union found itself in a difficult position. Moscow had not only invaded a neighbor for the first time since the Soviet assault on Afghanistan in 1979. In recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, it had also broken the cardinal rule of post-cold war European security: that borders in Europe would never again be changed by force of arms. Yet Georgia, too, had clearly made mistakes, not the least in embroiling itself in a military conflict with Russia that Georgia's own allies had repeatedly warned against. Opinion: The Turkey-Armenia detenteSeptember 05, 2009 / Ian LesserThe Global Post

This week, Turkey and Armenia announced their intention to establish diplomatic relations, open the closed border between the two countries and launch a series of talks and confidence-building measures aimed at resolving long-standing disputes and fostering closer cooperation.

Angela Merkel: The World’s Most Powerful Woman?August 23, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerYou're a woman: that's nice, it does make a cabinet meeting look better these days. You have the brains, experience and b... er, guts for a top-echelon political job? Good, good. And you're - German. Oh dear. In politics (make that: in the workplace), German women remain about a decade behind their American, French or British counterparts. America, Sweden, Spain, Norway and Turkey, to name a few, have all had or currently have women as national security advisers, foreign ministers, defence ministers. Germany has had none of the above. You grew up in East Germany? (Pregnant pause.) You do realise that very few of you have made it into top politics at all since 1989, and most have disappeared again without a trace?Stelzenmüller becomes a GMF Senior Transatlantic FellowMay 04, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerConstanze Stelzenmüller, the Berlin office director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), will become a Senior Transatlantic Fellow at GMF. In her new capacity Stelzenmüller will work on a broad spectrum of foreign and security policy issues.An Indian election primerApril 16, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign PolicyThe Indian elections beginning today will be the largest organized activity in human history (always true of Indian elections given the country's growing population). As many as 714 million eligible voters will be marking ballots for a new Indian parliament that will convene in June.Questions that Obama’s Af-Pak strategy doesn’t answerMarch 30, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyFellow Republicans have hailed President Obama's new strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan. The new administration's strategy is welcome, both for its substance and, as importantly, for the profile it has given to the urgency of defeating the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan and its growing strength in Pakistan. But as with every strategy, it contains trade-offs and shortcomings that, after the warm glow that has accompanied the Washington establishment's reception of the president's plan has worn off, may become more apparent.Sarkozy’s decision ups pressure on ObamaMarch 14, 2009 / John K. GlennGlobalPostWhen Obama travels to Europe in early April, he will face questions on the economic crisis and about whether Europeans are willing to do more in Afghanistan. Complicating matters is French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s announcement that he will bring France back into the military wing of NATO, reversing Charles de Gaulle’s decision of 40 years ago.A New NATO BargainMarch 06, 2009 / John K. GlennThe Wall Street Journal EuropeHillary Clinton made her debut yesterday at a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels and today holds her first meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva. Coming a month before Barack Obama's inaugural presidential trip to Europe and a NATO summit, this is a chance to hit the reset button not only with Russia but with America's closest European allies.Five Reasons Why This North Korean Crisis is No Groundhog DayMarch 05, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyNorth Korea’s missile and nuclear tests, new threats of war against its declared enemies, and the predictable results of these developments -– expressions of concern at the UN Security Council, U.S. offers of more unconditional talks, China’s ambivalent response –- suggest that we remain in the “Groundhog Day” cycle of crisis and response that has characterized U.S. policy towards Pyongyang since 1994Germany’s Russia Question: A New Ostpolitik for EuropeMarch 03, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign AffairsNow that Obama is president, will Germany respond to the call and join the United States as a key European partner in addressing global challenges and threats? Is Germany able and willing to use its considerable political resources to change Russia's behavior and to stand up to Moscow when necessary?Germany’s Russia QuestionMarch 01, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign AffairsLast July, more than 200,000 people flocked to a public park in Berlin to hear Barack Obama, then the Democratic candidate for president of the United States, deliver a speech calling for renewed transatlantic partnership and cooperation. The choice of Germany’s long-divided capital as the backdrop for his only public speech in Europe was deliberate.To the Germans listening to him that summer evening in the Tiergarten,Obama made a special appeal, citing “a set of ideals that speak to aspirations shared by all people,” the same “dream of freedom” that was the basis of the relationship between the United States and West Germany during the Cold War. Now that Obama is president, will Germany respond to the call and join the United States as a key European partner in addressing global challenges and threats?Don’t Dumb Down AfghanistanFebruary 23, 2009 / Daniel Twining, Gary SchmittThe Weekly StandardReading tea leaves is a dangerous business when it comes to a new administration. There is always a fair amount of floundering around that comes from having too few senior people in place, unsettled -policymaking processes, and indecision over which campaign promises to keep and which to toss overboard. Take, for example, the Obama administration's policy toward Afghanistan. While running for president, Barack Obama promised that help was on its way in the form of thousands of additional troops; now President Obama appears to have put his own promised surge on hold.A U.S. Asia strategy for Hillary Clinton’s tripFebruary 15, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyHillary Clinton deserves kudos for making Asia her first trip as secretary of state. Generations of senior U.S. officials were trained and socialized as Atlanticists, a legacy of the centrality of Europe during the Cold War. However, it does not diminish our European allies to acknowledge that if the 20th century was an Atlantic century, the 21st century looks likely to be a Pacific one.Don’t move the goalposts on AfghanistanJanuary 28, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyIf Iraq was "Bush's War," Afghanistan may well become "Obama's War." But as the New York Times reports today, the Obama administration is attempting to shift the goalposts in Afghanistan away from building a functioning democracy and toward the limited objective of denying terrorists sanctuary on Afghan soil.For Obama, the key to Russia is in BerlinJanuary 26, 2009 / Stephen SzaboFrankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

The renewal of the transatlantic relationship is one of President Obama's most important tasks and America's partnership with Germany will be crucial for the administration's policy in Europe, especially Russia. Germany's warm relationship with Russia will play a key role in framing the next U.S. Russia policy.  The full version of this article, written in German, is available for download below:

Foreign policy and war: Is Barack Obama an “Obamacon?”January 25, 2009 / Michael WerzHeinrich Boell Stiftung

In his inaugural address, Barack Obama struck a conciliatory tone in foreign policy. The perhaps most important change in rhetoric from the former Administration is his decision not to talk about the "war on terror." Instead, he chose a descriptive phrase and spoke of a "network of violence and hatred," which must be combated. However, Obama supplemented this clear distinction from his predecessor's exaggerated rhetoric about war and staying the course with an emphatic reaffirmation of military force as a means to achieve freedom or prevent major calamity.

You were at the Inauguration; China was planning for warJanuary 22, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyWhile everyone here in the United States and beyond was focused on Barack Obama's Inauguration on Tuesday, China chose that day to slip this little item under the door -- China's National Defense in 2008, their annual white paper detailing plans for increased defense spending and military modernization.Obama to Europe: Ich bin ein listenerJanuary 21, 2009 / John K. Glenn, Kristin M. LordPoliticoBarack Obama's election was greeted with jubilation in many parts of the world, raising hopes that his personal appeal will translate into progress on a range of important issues: stabilizing and reconstructing Afghanistan, countering Iran's nuclear ambitions, resolving the global financial crisis, reaching an international climate change agreement and responding to a newly assertive Russia, among others.Country analysis: The end of the American century?January 20, 2009 / Michael WerzInternational Policy Analysis, Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung

In this issue of International Policy Analysis, GMF Transatlantic Fellow Michael Werz examines the phenomena surrounding Barack Obama, the consolidation of the Democratic party during the 90s, the impact of minority and first time voters, the challenges facing the Republican party, and interior as well as foreign policy aspirations for the new administration.

The Presidency of an apoliticalJanuary 18, 2009 / Michael WerzDer Tagesspiegel

No picture documents the closing moments of George W. Bush's term better than the picture of him on the morning of September 11, 2001, at an elementary school in Sarasota, Florida. He was reading to the students when his cheif of staff whispered the disaster that was transpiring in New York. At this moment, only six months into his term, his Presidency was over. The article, written in German for the Berlin daily newspaper Der Tagesspiegel, is available for download below:

Foreign policy challenges for the Obama administrationJanuary 01, 2009 / John K. GlennSIEPS European Policy AnalysisThis European Policy Analysis reviews the foreign policy challenges for the new U.S. administration. President Barack Obama faces a formidable set of international challenges including wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the prospect of a nuclear Iran, a resurgent Russia, and a short calendar for a new treaty on climate change. On each of these issues, Europeans have the potential to play a key role as allies. President Obama has called for the mending of relations with Europeans, but the ability of the United States and Europe to address these pressing foreign policy challenges will be constrained by the financial and economic crisis. This analysis will review the Obama administration's vision for foreign policy and analyze the major challenges on the foreign policy agenda, considering opportunities for U.S.-European engagement and looking ahead to prospects for the future.Fidel’s choiceNovember 27, 2008 / Andrew SmallInternational Herald TribuneIt was once said of Fidel Castro that his "stomach is in Moscow but his heart is in Beijing." Now the opposite seems to be true.The EU is in urgent need of a foreign energy policyNovember 11, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichNeue Zürcher ZeitungThe EU is in urgent need of a Foreign Energy Policy. Without closer coordination within the EU, Moscow has more pull.The transatlantic marketplace and Obama: don’t be quick to celebrateNovember 03, 2008 / Joseph QuinlanSüddeutsche Zeitung

It's no secret that Europeans won't miss President Bush when he hands over the presidency to President-elect Barack Obama in January 2009. Because of the extremely unpopular, U.S.-led war in Iraq, the past eight years in transatlantic partnership have been tenuous, and the general impression is that the years following this administration can only improve.

Putin’s Great EmpireOctober 09, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichInternationale Politik

Unfortunately, the Russian Georgia war confirmed that, beyond the constitution and even as prime minister, Putin is still the political leader in Russia and will be so for some time. The war indicated more parallels to the expanding Russian empire of the 19th century than of the USSR after the Second World War when the Soviet Union's main interest in Europe was to consolidate the frontiers. Today's revisionistic Russia in contrast to the the static Soviet Union pursuits to newly revise its frontiers in the European Post Sovitic space. This is driven by an increasing Russian Neonationalism. Europe, in particular, is required to readjust its Russia policy to formulate a robust economic response.

New Plumbing, New Purposes – Rebuilding the Atlantic AllianceOctober 05, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichThe American Interest November/DecemberRue de la Loi: The Global Ambition of the European ProjectSeptember 20, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichThe Stanley Foundation Working Paper Reaction by Robert CooperThe creation of the European Union — or what is often known as the European project — is a remarkable and ongoing experiment. It is the example par excellence of norm-building at home and, increasingly, the projection of those norms abroad. At its heart, European integration was and remains a Wilsonian project designed to ban the possibility of conflict through the application of the rule of law and norm-building on a transnational scale. The enforcement of such norms is the core of the European Union’s power. With its aim originally limited to banning conflict in Europe – and above all in the relationship between France and Germany – the EU today has since graduated to a much broader vision of both unifying the European continent as a whole and seeking to be a model and inspiration for a global order based on the rule of law and international norms.A balance of power askewSeptember 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDie ZEIT

It matters less than it used to what NATO promises new member states or candidate countries. Russia is no longer easily deterred. It's never been a secret that Russia objects to NATO enlargement, especially when it comes to countries bordering its own territory. Post-soviet Russia was initially poor and weak. Russia has since become rich, authoritarian, and has discovered new weapons in gas and oil. At the same time, America is overstretched. 

Finding Out Truth about Georgian WarSeptember 17, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffRealClear World

Last week Senator Hillary Clinton called for a congressional commission to investigate the origins of the Georgian war. It is the latest skirmish in an intellectual battle over how a little war in farway Georgia started and what it mean for US policy for years. There are clashing narratives of what happened and what it means.

Russia warms to the West no moreAugust 26, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffSüddeutsche ZeitungGerman policy vis a vis Russia needs to be rethought. There is no longer a basis for Germany's "Strategic Partnership" with Russia. The occupation of parts of Georgia is a game changer. In 1996, Chancellor Helmut Kohl offered the Russians a deal: Nato would allow the Central and Eastern European countries to join while Russia would be offered to gradually integrate into Western and global institutions. Germany would anker this common western policy. The argument was: Integration would make Russia safer and richer. The strategy has worked: Russia is safe and rich. Yet it is choosing a different path: it wants to be rich, authoritarian and a bully vis a vis its neighbors.NATO’s HourAugust 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe Wall Street Journal Europe

Russia's invasion of Georgia is a game changer. This war is part of a Russian strategy of roll-back and regime change on its borders. The more evidence that comes in, the clearer it is becoming that this is a conflict Moscow planned, prepared for and provoked -- a trap Tbilisi unfortunately walked into. A core Western assumption since 1991 -- that Moscow would never again invade its neighbors -- has been shattered. As Moscow basks in its moment of nationalistic triumphalism, the West needs to take steps to prevent further Russian moves from spreading instability to others parts of Europe.

Naive MiscalculationsAugust 15, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichFrankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

The Russian military overreaction to Georgian occupation of Tskhinvali will change the German and European relationship with Russia. Europe's helplessness and America's inability to pose a military presence in the Caucasus represents a new geopolitical order in which Russia has yet again established the power to redraw the contours of Europe, going far beyond just its energy distribution power. Russia's agression offers an opportunity for Germany to develop a new Russia policy. Instead of Germany's special relationship with Russia, it seems as though closer cooperation with East European EU members and America could have greater success.

How the West Botched GeorgiaAugust 13, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichThe New Republic

The guns around Tbilisi have now fallen silent. Efforts are underway to finalize a truce between Russia and Georgia to end Moscow's bloody invasion. It is time for the West to look in the mirror and ask: What went wrong? How did this disaster happen? Make no mistake. While this is first and foremost a disaster for the people and government of Georgia, it is also a disaster for the West--and for the U.S. in particular.

Europa muss aufwachenAugust 13, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichDie Welt

Senior Transatlantic Fellow Joerg Himmelreich discusses the ongoing conflict between Georgia and Russia over breakaway provinces South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This article was written in German.

Black Sea WatershedAugust 11, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichWashington Post

In weeks and years past, each of us has argued on this page that Moscow was pursuing a policy of regime change toward Georgia and its pro-Western, democratically elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili. We predicted that, absent strong and unified Western diplomatic involvement, we were headed toward a war. Now, tragically, an escalation of violence in South Ossetia has culminated in a full-scale Russian invasion of Georgia. The West, and especially the United States, could have prevented this war. We have arrived at a watershed moment in the West's post-Cold War relations with Russia.

A Hot Proxy War: Moscow’s Power PoliticsAugust 11, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichDer Spiege

The rapid escalation of the conflict in South Ossetia shows just how much the crisis suits all parties involved. Georgia wants to integrate itself into the West, and Russia wants to prevent just that. The welfare of the South Ossetians plays no role whatsoever.

Obama’s European trip pays offJuly 25, 2008 / Michael WerzTages-AnzeigerGMF Transatlantic Fellow Michael Werz examines the odd choice by Obama to campaign for America's presidency from abroad and the success with which it was received by the people of Berlin. This interview is in German.La Europa balcánicaJuly 24, 2008 / Ivan VejvodaLa Razón DigitalIvan Vejvoda, Executive Director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, discusses the recent capture of former Bosnian-Serb leader Radovan Karadzic. The article is written in Spanish.Groß ist die HoffnungJuly 23, 2008 / Stephen SzaboSueddeutsche ZeitungDr. Stephen Szabo, Executive Director of the Transatlantic Academy at the German Marshall Fund, discusses Senator Barack Obama's visit to Berlin, Germany and greater Europe. The article is written in German.EU-US scholar: Obama may not be the easy partner Europe hopes forJuly 23, 2008 / Francois LafondEurActive.comAmid their 'Obamania', Europeans tend to overlook that on certain issues like trade, a President Obama pressured by a Democrat-led Congress could be a more difficult partner in pushing for a common agenda, Francois Lafond of the German Marshall Fund told EurActiv in an interview.Merkel’s Ukraine Visit Signals Crucial ShiftJuly 21, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichRadio Free Europe - Radio LibertAngela Merkel's arrival in Kyiv marks the first visit to Ukraine by a German chancellor since the 2005 Orange Revolution brought a reformed, pro-Europe government to power. Her predecessor never found his way to Kyiv because he was worried by the grievances from Moscow that such a trip would have provoked. Merkel, though, gives less weight to Russia's concerns, even though they are expressed much more bluntly these days.We’re quick to damn the US but slow to see our own faultsJuly 20, 2008 / Constanze StelzenmuellerThe ObserverPresident Obama is finally coming to Europe! All right, the Americans haven't elected him ... yet. But that's a mere technicality as far as we're concerned. We made up our minds long ago: our President is Barack Obama.Democracy and a Piece of ClothingJuly 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffPostGlobal, Washington PostFrance has rejected a citizenship application from a burqa-wearing Moroccan woman on the grounds that she has "insufficiently assimilated" to French culture. Should cultural assimilation be a requirement for citizenshipA War The West Must StopJuly 15, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe Washington PostThere is war in the air between Georgia and Russia. Such a war could destabilize a region critical for Western energy supplies and ruin relations between Russia and the West. A conflict over Georgia could become an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. How they respond could become a test of the potential commander-in-chief qualities of Barack Obama and John McCain.“America, this is our Moment” – Barack Obama writes historyJuly 01, 2008 / Michael WerzKommuneNothing has been decided as of yet with regard to the new occupant of the White House. Nevertheless major changes have happened in US society already. When Barack Obama declared himself Democratic candidate for the Presidency on June 3rd in front of 17,000 enthusiastic supporters in St. Paul, Minnesota, American history seemed to take place in fast motion. The nomination of the first black candidate for the highest office evoked three centuries of American history and at the same time documented the astonishing path this nation has taken.America must correct course: a conversation with Helmut SchmidtJuly 01, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe American Interest

Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, the senior director for policy programs at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, recently met with former German Finance Minister and Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in his Hamburg office on behalf of The American Interest to discuss the United States and the world economy.

U.S. Needs Alliance With EuropeJune 18, 2008 / Jack MartinThe Wichita Eagle

As President Bush made his farewell tour of Europe, one could almost be forgiven for thinking the continent had become an afterthought for the United States. Yet such a view would ignore the fact that a strong trans-Atlantic alliance is needed now more than ever, as America shares many more values, challenges and goals with the democracies of Europe than with any other nations.

Merkel in der Moskau-Falle (“Merkel in the Russia trap”)June 05, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichDer Spiegel

The cordial meeting between Merkel and the new Russian President Medvedev on his first trip to the West might indicate a change of style of Russia's foreign policy, but not its essence. The slalom course of Merkel and Steinmeier bears the risk for Germany to become isolated in Europe in its Russia and "Ostpolitik," Jörg Himmelreich warns. This article is written in German.

Get involved over Georgia or invite a warJune 03, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichFinancial Times

The west could be sleepwalking into a war on the European continent. Georgia, which burst into view with a moving display of democratic ambition during the Rose Revolution of 2003, is teetering on the brink of war with Russia over the separatist Georgian enclave of Abkhazia. The outcome of this crisis will help determine the rules of the post-cold-war security system. But western diplomats are notsending strong enough signals to either side.

The Dalai ObamaJune 03, 2008 / Constanze StelzenmuellerSüddeutsche Zeitung

Barack Obama drums up admiration in Germany as only the Dalai Lama can do, but the end of this euphoria is foreseeable. As America chooses, the world looks on. The next man at the helm of America will determine global politics like none other. In this sense, won't he in fact become the world's President? He's pretty much there, at least that's so far the case in Germany.

Turkey, Closer to the U.S. than EuropeJune 01, 2008 / Michael WerzHeinrich Böll Stiftung

If you compare the geographical distances from Ankara, Los Angeles is 11,000 Kilometers removed, whereas Berlin is a mere one-fifth of that distance. This proximity Germany and Turkey should offer great opportunities to each other's societies. But if one compares the political debates vis-à-vis Turkey in Germany and the United States, the relationship of distance and proximity reverses itself. (Written in German)

A counterrevolutionaryMay 01, 2008 / Michael WerzKommuneAs the Democratic nomination of a presidential candidate captivates the United States, the Republican race is already settled. But the headstrong outsider John McCain is still being identified with the unpopular President George Bush. And many of his political positions have not yet been clarified and he has a number of foes in his own party. Will he be able to unite the disparate parts of the party? This article is written in German.

The Schism Between Washington and BerlinApril 25, 2008 / Michael WerzFrankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

What happened at the NATO Summit in Bucharest is gradually becoming clear. This summit was the most dramatic since Madrid 11 years ago, and, if it becomes dramatic, it could either be a success or not matter whatsoever. A dramatic debate can lead to something new or lead to an uncertain stillstand. In Bucharest it was probably the latter. (This article is written in German)

The End of the End of HistoryApril 22, 2008 / Robert KaganThe New Republic

GMF Transatlantic Fellow Robert Kagan gives five reasons as to why the twenty-first century will look like the nineteenth.

“Preventing the next Cold War” revisitedApril 21, 2008 / Andrew SmallDe Volkskrant

The war in Iraq may yet prove to have one lasting and little-noticed benefit: reducing the threat of a new cold war between the United States and China. The weakening of the U.S. global power position that the war induced has led officials in the second Bush administration to turn again and again to seek the support of the country that they labeled a strategic competitor only a few years earlier.

Brown, Black, White: Americans Vote and Discover a New ContinentApril 11, 2008 / Michael WerzKommune

Usually nominations and elections decide about the future of a society. However, much to the surprise of many American, in the United States an intensive conversation about the status quo has begun. This has to do with the monumental changes in race relations that have become highlighted in the Democratic nomination process; transformations that before might not been so visible. The yearlong battle has opened out into a cultural self-reflection of national proportions and resulted in an unbelievable political mobilization. (In German)

India’s relations with Iran and Myanmar: “Rogue state” or responsible democratic stakeholder?April 10, 2008 / Daniel TwiningIndia ReviewWhat kind of great power will India become as it rises in the twenty-first century? Indian foreign policy today embodies the contradictions and ambiguities stemming from India's ongoing evolution from a nonaligned, developing nation into one of the world's most powerful democracies.

Rethinking NATO Partnerships for the 21st CenturyApril 01, 2008 / Daniel TwiningNATO Review

Security threats today are globalised and non-traditional. It’s time for NATO’s partnerships to follow suit.

Democracy and American grand strategy in Asia: The realist principles behind an enduring idealismMarch 31, 2008 / Daniel Twining, Michael J. GreenContemporary Southeast Asia

Has democracy promotion been discredited as a central theme of American foreign policy after the US experience in Iraq? Many American critics and friends overseas appear to believe so. It would be wrong, however, to believe that the ideational approach of American foreign policy will diminish, particularly in Asia.

Supping at the WTO’s Last Chance SaloonMarch 27, 2008 / Daniel Twining, Michael J. GreenEuropean Voice, Editorial & OpinionThe global credit squeeze has made the world's economics ministers understandably jittery. But the crisis unfolding over world trade is far more serious. With the Doha Round of talks at the WTO at a standstill, now the unthinkable could happen. The global trading system may be abandoned.China’s changing policies towards rogue statesMarch 18, 2008 / Andrew SmallTestimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC)Chinese policy towards rogue states has undergone a quiet revolution in the last few years. While China is far from being a genuinely like-minded partner to the United States in dealing with these countries, its cooperation is becoming an increasingly central factor in diplomatic efforts to find solutions to the crises in North Korea, Iran, Sudan, and Burma. The testimony sets out the nature of the shift in Chinese policy, the driving factors, the constraints on its scope, and the implications for U.S. policy.The Copenhagen Consensus: Reading Adam Smith in DenmarkMarch 01, 2008 / Andrew SmallForeign Affairs, March/April 2008Atlantic Faces InterviewFebruary 18, 2008 / Andrew SmallAtlantic-Community.org: Atlantic Faces Interview

GMF provides me with the unique opportunity to work on these issues in partnership with other top-notch institutions in the US and Europe. I am convinced that fostering these networks of transatlantic thinkers and opinion-makers not only strengthens the relationship between the US and Europe in general, but also provides intellectual input outside the realm of government that can avert conflict and in turn inform policy decisions.

The Baltic ModelJanuary 16, 2008 / Andrew SmallWall Street JournalIt is difficult to recall today the West's hostility in the early 1990s toward Baltic membership in NATO and the European Union. At a time when even embracing Poland was controversial, the aspirations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were considered nutty if not outright dangerous. Moscow's reaction was even worse.Europe’s Philosophy of FailureJanuary 04, 2008 / Stefan TheilForeign Policy; Financial TimesWhat a country teaches its young people reflects its bedrock national beliefs. Schools hand down a society's historical narrative to the next generation. There has been a great deal of debate over the ways in which this historical ideology is passed on - Japanese textbooks that downplay the Nanjing Massacre, Palestinian textbooks that feature maps without Israel, and new Russian guidelines that require teachers to portray Stalinism more favorably. Yet there has been almost no analysis of how countries teach economics, a subject equally crucial in shaping foreign and domestic policies.Is our aid making us safer?January 02, 2008 / Jim KolbeBaltimore SunIt is increasingly apparent that our aid - and trade - policies are not really supporting economic growth in impoverished countries. Nor are they enhancing our own security.Time to Talk to IranDecember 05, 2007 / Robert KaganWashington PostRegardless of what one thinks about the National Intelligence Estimate's conclusion that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 -- and there is much to question in the report -- its practical effects are indisputable. The Bush administration cannot take military action against Iran during its remaining time in office, or credibly threaten to do so, unless it is in response to an extremely provocative Iranian action.The U.S. Factor in Sino-European RelationsDecember 01, 2007 / Andrew SmallChina-EU: A Common FutureFor Europe and China alike, the most important bilateral relationship is with the United States. Although often described as a ‘strategic triangle’, neither the Chinese impact on the transatlantic relationship nor Europe’s role in the Sino-US relationship is remotely comparable to the significance of the United States for the Sino-European relationship.Global trends, regional consequences: Wider strategic influences on the Black SeaNovember 27, 2007 / Ian LesserThe wider Black Sea area is rapidly becoming a focal point of interest for a number of extra-regional actors that can also be considered, in view of their active involvement, to be stakeholders. As Ian Lesser, the author of this new Xenophon Paper suggests, the Black Sea is strategically significant because it is an important part of the European security environment.Justice too long delayed – killing fieldsNovember 22, 2007 / Elizabeth BeckerInternational Herald TribuneIt had been nearly 30 years since the overthrow of the regime of the infamous ''killing fields,'' in which an estimated 1.7 million Cambodians perished. Yet in all those years no one had been held accountable for one of the worst crimes against humanity of the last century.Our Pakistan ChallengeNovember 19, 2007 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardPakistan is the swing state in the worldwide struggle against Islamic terrorists. Its decisive position makes Pervez Musharraf's imposition of martial law on November 3 a hard test for American foreign policy.Advice to Georgia on following path to democracyNovember 14, 2007 / Daniel TwiningFinancial TimesLast week’s declared state of emergency in Georgia came as a shock. The Rose Revolution’s democratic experiment in this small but strategically vital country seemed to dissolve in clouds of tear gas.Is There A West?October 30, 2007 / Stephen SzaboThe Globalist

Globalization has meant that a global public is emerging through the vast expansion of the mass media. Genocide cannot occur unnoticed for long. Human rights are now a rationale for the intervention into what used to be the internal affairs of sovereign states.

The NATO intervention into Kosovo established the principle of limited sovereignty - and this was done without a UN mandate. As former British Prime Minister Tony Blair stated in a speech he gave in Chicago in 1999 during the Kosovo conflict, the Kosovo intervention was a "just war" because it was not based on any territorial ambitions - but rather upon values.

Saying Yes to FranceOctober 29, 2007 / Stephen SzaboThe Washington PostFrench President Nicolas Sarkozy has indicated his willingness to bring France back into NATO. It is an offer the United States should not refuse. Earlier in my career, I was a hard-liner on France and NATO. In fact, when I stepped down from the State Department in 2000, the French ambassador to Washington was so relieved he toasted my departure at a European Union ambassadors' lunch because of my dogged pursuit of U.S. interests.Beyond Suspicion: Rethinking U.S.-Turkish RelationsOctober 19, 2007 / Ian LesserWoodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Southeast Europe Project

Dr. Ian Lesser, a senior Transatlantic Fellow at GMF, has written a new book analyzing the current challenges facing the U.S.-Turkish relationship, examining the growing friction between the United States and Turkey, and exploring ways to rebuild and reshape bilateral ties. It is available for download as a PDF.

Playing the America CardOctober 01, 2007 / Daniel TwiningWeekly Standard

China's rise in Asia and the world is one of the big stories of our time. Goldman Sachs predicts that China's economy will be bigger than America's in two decades. From Shanghai to Singapore, one hears whispers of a "new Chinese century" recalling the Sino-centric hierarchy of traditional Asia. Yet China's geopolitical ascent is creating what Mao Zedong would have termed a "contradiction": China's rising power makes the United States increasingly important to nearly every Asian nation, including China itself.

Failure as a ChanceAugust 28, 2007 / Constanze StelzenmuellerRheinischer Merkur

Hilary Clinton's rise to become most promising female presidential candidate stems from her husband's mistakes, when she rediscovered herself and learned from her mistakes as First Lady.

The Next InterventionAugust 06, 2007 / Robert KaganWashington Post

Is the United States out of the intervention business for a while? With two difficult wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a divided public, the conventional answer is that it will be a long time before any American president, Democrat or Republican, again dispatches troops into conflict overseas.

The Return of HistoryAugust 05, 2007 / Robert KaganLos Angeles TimesDespite hopes that the the world would be different after the Cold War, nationalism and ideology are back.Does Joining the EU Strengthen Central and Eastern Europe’s Transatlantic Ties?August 01, 2007 / Robert KaganCQ Global ResearcherAt the end of the Cold War, a new map of Europe began to emerge from the rubble of the Berlin Wall. Successive U.S. administrations have sought to create a new Europe that was peaceful, democratic and undivided.China’s New Dictatorship DiplomacyJuly 21, 2007 / Andrew SmallForeign Affairs; New York Times; International Herald TribuneChina is often accused of supporting a string of despots, nuclear proliferators, and genocidal regimes, shielding them from international pressure and thus reversing progress on human rights and humanitarian principles. But over the last two years, Beijing has been quietly overhauling its policies toward pariah states.End of Dreams, Return of HistoryJuly 18, 2007 / Robert KaganHoover Institute Policy ReviewThe world has become normal again. The years immediately following the end of the Cold War offered a tantalizing glimpse at a new kind of international order, with nations growing together or disappearing altogether, ideological conflicts melting away, cultures intermingling through increasingly free commerce and communications.Foreign Fathers: The Idea of the Marshall Plan is still in EffectJuly 08, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichFrankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung

The Marshall Plan was introduced sixty years ago. On June 5th, 1947, then American Foreign Minister General George Catlett Marshall announced in a speech at Harvard University the plan for an American help program for the reconstruction of the destroyed European economy, a program which from then on would bear his name. This article is available in English and original German.

In Favour of a Selective PartnershipJuly 01, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie Berliner Republik

Germany plays a specific role for Russia and vice versa. It is apparently no coincidence that the German chancellor and the Russian President communicate in Russian and German - after all German-Russian relations have always been complex and changeable. Mutual fear and admiration, phobic defensiveness and empathetic fondness have characterized the situation on both sides - not merely in recent times, but always.

America’s Grand Design in AsiaMay 31, 2007 / Daniel TwiningWashington QuarterlyIn a dynamic Asian order featuring new centers of power, China's rise will naturally challenge Washington's ability to protect its interests in the region. In 2000, presidential candidate George W. Bush labeled China as the United States' leading strategic and military competitor. In September 2005, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick explicitly warned Beijing not to "maneuver toward a predominance of power" in Asia, suggesting that it was doing exactly that.No Wishful Thinking helps against Putin’s Power PoliticsMay 19, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichWelt am SonntagThe EU-Russia summit in Samara came to an end without any tangible results and indicates a low point in Russian-European relations. There is and will not be a new Cold War, but the peace is becoming cooler.Putin shatters the European illusionMay 18, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie Welt

The EU-Russia Summit in Samara came to and end without tangible results. It indicates a continuing low point in Russian-European relations, which are steadily getting worse. Moscow has found itself wrapped up in its present energy power, the primary campaign of the elections in the Duma in December, and the presidential election next March. Russia is once again a presence on the world's stage and wants everyone to know.  This article is available in its original German.

Werkelei am GebälkMay 10, 2007 / Ulrike GuérotFinancial Times DeutschlandThe arrival of Nicolas Sarkozy as French President should breathe new life into the revitalization of the European Constitution that was rejected in France in 2005. Many fear that Europe, however, could head in the opposite direction instead of making forward progress. (Article in German)Beijing Cools on MugabeMay 02, 2007 / Andrew SmallInternational Herald Tribune

China, which once perceived the West's condemnation of Mugabe and sanctions against his regime as an economic opportunity, now views its involvement in Zimbabwe as a liability both for its investments and its international reputation.

The Ultimate Answer: Fusion Power’s Long TakeoffMay 01, 2007 / Marty RosenbergEnergyBiz MagazineWhile there is some lingering skepticism about the viability of fusion power generation, the scientific community has convinced government officials that the remaining technical hurdles, while complex and significant, can be cleared. But it will require an unprecedented degree of global cooperation.How Missile Defense Could Heal Transatlantic RelationsApril 02, 2007 / Marty RosenbergThe New RepublicWhen the United States deploys missiles in Europe, big things tend to happen. Currently, the debate is not only about the Iranian missile program, let alone the technical merits and flaws of the Bush defense shield that is supposed to counter it. Instead, it is primarily about the nature of the U.S.-European relationship.Missile HysteriaApril 02, 2007 / Constanze StelzenmuellerNewsweek Poland

Germany has been celebrating Europe's 50th birthday, and itself: Hooray, we're a normal country again, with a normal foreign policy! Indeed, Germany has come a long way in this half century. And Angela Merkel has done much to reestablish it in its old role as a balancer and mediator in Europe, as well as within the transatlantic relationship.

Can the Development Agenda Save the Doha Round?April 01, 2007 / Constanze StelzenmuellerBRIDGES Monthly ReviewWhile it is frequently bemoaned that designating the Doha Round as a 'development round' has made the negotiations more difficult, the designation may offer the only solution to the larger questions of legitimacy and credibility facing the WTO and the global trade regime.From Iran to Israel: American Choices in IraqApril 01, 2007 / Ian LesserAfkar Idées

This article discusses the challenges facing the US in the broader Middle East, four years after the Iraq war. It highlights the implications of a more chaotic strategic environment for the region, the risk of multiple "civil wars," and the opportunity costs with regard to the Palestinian-Israeli crisis and other issues. It was written for the French publication Afkar Idées and is written in French. The full article is available for download below:

War or PeaceMarch 27, 2007 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial Times Deutschland

Germany wants to be a "normal" country, with a "normal" foreign policy. But recent debates on the use of force in Afghanistan and on missile defence in Europe are anything but. Article in original German.

Vladimir Putin: The Gasman is comingMarch 25, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltGMF Fellow Jörg Himmelreich analyzes Russia's strategy of implementing gas and oil as weapons - and warns against falling into their propaganda maneuver regarding the U.S. missile defense system. Written for the German daily Die Welt, the article is in original German.Portugal and the Southern Mediterranean: Transatlantic Interest and StrategiesMarch 06, 2007 / Ian LesserLuso-American FoundationWith relations between the Muslim world and the West in periodic crisis, the southern Mediterranean has become a strategic concern on both sides of the Atlantic.The Ruler of the PipelineMarch 01, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichInternationale PolitikIt used to be tanks and missiles but now it is oil and gas that matter. The Kremlin is deliberately using its energy resources and the dependency of the importing countries as a tool of a new great power policy. The EU can no longer allow itself to be treated in this manner. It should use its power of demand to create a new foundation for future cooperation.  The Rewards of a Larger NATOFebruary 19, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichWashington Post

The critics were wrong when they opposed adding nations to the alliance in the 1990s, and they are still wrong. In fact, the more time that passes, the better the arguments in favor of enlargement look. There were basically three reasons for expanding NATO, and each has been proved right.

China, the Unlikely Human Rights ChampionFebruary 14, 2007 / Andrew Small, Stephanie Kleine-AhlbrandtPolicy Innovations

Each time President Hu Jintao concludes a trip to Africa, he leaves a bigger Chinese footprint on the continent. Yet the imprint left by this February's visit is not just a result of the usual choreographed procession of trade deals, largesse, and south-south brotherhood. It also reflects a quiet revolution in Chinese attitudes toward non-interference, exemplified by Hu's most visible push yet for settlement of the Darfur crisis.

The lost leader of BelarusFebruary 09, 2007 / Robin ShepherdUnited Press InternationalIf the gods first make mad those whom they wish to destroy, then Alexander Lukashenko, the brutal autocrat in charge of Belarus, may be heading for problems. Since losing his last remaining ally in Europe in an acrimonious oil and gas dispute with Russia at the beginning of January, his behavior has become so erratic that many in the domestic opposition have begun to speculate he is losing control of his faculties. NATO must go global to have a meaningful purposeFebruary 06, 2007 / Robin ShepherdFinancial TimesWhen western security experts gather this weekend in Munich to discuss the future of Nato at their annual security conference, they will be considering an Atlantic alliance that faces two rather stark choices: re-reinvent itself to handle the threats of a new century, or watch itself drift slowly into strategic marginalisation.China Jumps InFebruary 02, 2007 / Andrew SmallInternational Herald Tribune

We are getting used to seeing new faces of Chinese diplomacy and on President Hu Jintao's latest trip to Africa we will see the unlikeliest of all. In making his most visible push for the settlement of the Darfur crisis, Hu will signal a quiet revolution in Chinese attitudes to sovereignty and noninterference, and position China as the protector of the repressed citizens of the region.

Why We Need A New Transatlantic OstpolitikFebruary 01, 2007 / Andrew SmallDie ZeitIt is time for a debate across the Atlantic about a new Eastern policy. The Russia we face today is a different one than what we hoped for.  EU and NATO policy toward an enlarged Europe's new neighborhood needs to be rethought.  And the United States and Europe need to get their act together on energy policy. With leadership changes coming up in Paris, London and Washington, the time is ripe to get out our laptops and debate the framework for a new policy. Strategies instead of blindfoldsJanuary 15, 2007 / Tanja WunderlichDas ParlamentIt was suddenly as if a catalepsy had dissolved. On January 1, 2005, Germany's new immigration law was passed. It was just as much a rejection of the native multiculturalism of earlier years as it was a heated, populist warning of terrorist infiltration. (Article in German)Europe in the Era of GazpromJanuary 12, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDer Tagesspiegel

The EU-Commission's "Strategic Energy Report" contains many feasible suggestions for improving competition conditions within the European energy market, promoting environmental protection, as well as developing renewable energy. These objectives provide, without a doubt, indispensable elements of a common European energy policy considered essential in order to protect the survival of the human race on our planet.

Strong response to Putin’s Russia overdueJanuary 09, 2007 / Robin ShepherdFinancial Times

As Russia and Belarus sought to blame each other on Monday over the suspension of oil supplies through the northern leg of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Poland and Germany, Europe might well have paused to take stock of its own share of responsibility for the latest threat to its energy security.

The New Great Game: Why the Bush administration has embraced IndiaDecember 20, 2006 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardThree recent events illuminate the contours and fault lines of Asia's emerging strategic landscape, amid the lengthening shadows cast by China's growing power.Germany and Europe: New Deal or Déjà Vu?December 14, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotNotre EuropeThe Weimar Triangle – Improvements in the German-Polish RelationshipDecember 07, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDziennikThe meeting of President Chirac, Chancellor Merkel and President Kaczynski in western Germany was a success particularly for the German-Polish relationship. This article, written in German and translated to English here, appeared in the Polish Dzennik.Europa-Handbuch: BelarusDecember 06, 2006 / Joerg ForbrigEuropa-HandbuchIn the current political landscape of Europe, Belarus is a rare outsider. Although the country became a direct neighbor of the European Union in 2004 - by way of that entity's eastward enlargement - Belarus is politically, economically and socially far cry from European normality.Turkey, the United States and the Delusion of GeopoliticsNovember 14, 2006 / Ian LesserSurvivalTurkey and Turkish-US relations have been prisoners of a narrow concept of geopolitics. The key questions are not geographic - whether Turkey is a bridge or a barrier, a flank or a front - but how Turkey will act, and whether Turkish and American policies are convergent or divergent.The Whirlwind Angie-George WaltzNovember 01, 2006 / Ian LesserAtlanticChancellor Angela Merkel and President George W. Bush seem to get along splendidly. But the German public remains critical of the U.S., and will be watching closely to see who is leading whom.Cowboy Nation: Against the myth of American innocenceOctober 23, 2006 / Robert KaganThe New Republic

These days, we are having a national debate over the direction of foreign policy. Beyond the obvious difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is a broader sense that our nation has gone astray.

Putin’s Russia fails its own testOctober 20, 2006 / Robin ShepherdInternational Herald TribuneFor entirely understandable reasons, recent events in Russia have prompted a tidal wave of criticism against President Vladimir Putin's style of government.Germany’s Russia Policy Following the Murder of Anna PolitkovskayaOctober 16, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDziennik

President Putin's recent visit to Germany was overshadowed by the murder of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya of just a few days before. In the subsequent press conference, after only a few opening remarks, Chancellor Merkel demanded an explanation for the killing. Putin's cynical assertion that the murderous act damaged Russia more than the supposedly unimportant work of the journalist horrified the German media. At state visits in Dresden and Munich, German protesters waved banners depicting President Putin as a murderer.

India is more than BollywoodSeptember 29, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDer TagesspiegelThe Indian elephant is rising - slowly, but determined. In the public sphere and the foreign political arena, India is still in the shadow of China. At the same time, there is no doubt that in the newly emerging global order at the beginning of the 21st century India is becoming a new actor with crucial global significance.America is pursuing a grand design in AsiaSeptember 25, 2006 / Daniel TwiningFinancial TimesAsia’s strong states will shape the future of international politics more than the weak states and terrorists of Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon.Rethinking global economic governance in the 21st centurySeptember 22, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierPolicy Paper

This policy paper, entitled "Rethinking global economic governance in the 21st century", was presented on Sept 22, 2006 in Washington in the Atlantic Council of the United States with Randhall Henning from the Institute for International Economics. Please see below for the PDF of the paper.

Slovakia sets extremist challenge for EuropeJuly 07, 2006 / Robin ShepherdThe Financial TimesThe European Union was presented with another serious challenge to its ability to contain hardline nationalism this week with the inclusion in the government of new member state Slovakia of a key party with rabidly xenophobic views and a nostalgic attitude to that country's pro-Nazi wartime government.Abbas’s Palestinian referendum offers only false hopeJune 19, 2006 / Robin ShepherdThe Financial TimesGood news from the Palestinian territories is a rarecommodity, so rare that there is an understandable tendency to overstate its significance when it comes.American Philanthropic Foundations: Emerging Actors of Globalization and Pillars of the Transatlantic DialogueMay 29, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierReport presented at Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, organized in Tokyo by the World Bank and the Ministry of Finance of Japan from May 29-30, 2006.

This policy paper illustrates the increase in power of American philanthropic foundations in discussions dealing with globalization, in particular financing for development and Global Public Goods.

Russia’s Shadow EmpireMay 11, 2006 / Ana Palacio, Daniel TwiningThe Washington PostSince 2003, democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia have dealt strategic blows to the ambition of Russia's leaders to reconstitute the former Soviet empire by retaining political and military suzerainty over their weaker neighbors. But Russia's imperial pretensions along its periphery linger.Op-Ed: International Monetary Fund and the World BankMay 11, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierChallengesGMF Transatlantic Fellow Benoît Chervalier wrote an Op-Ed article about the International Monetary Fund and the World Bank for Challenges, a French economics newspaper.The reform of the IMF: the tree which hides the forestMay 09, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) faces an identity crisis. Many member governments feel that the IMF is not responsive to their needs and that they lack the voice and vote, in other words, the influence, to bring about the institution.Europe in a Pause for ThoughtMay 01, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotKulturaustauschSince the French and Dutch voted against a European Constitution, Europe has found itself in an identity crisis, euphemistically referred to as an "opportunity for reflection."The Third Way to LisbonMarch 21, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotWall Street JournalThe European Union is facing a crisis of historic proportions. Its infamous social model is failing as new trends in the industrialized world -- globalization, ageing, and rapid technological change -- threaten to permanently destroy the European way of life.The Touch, and Clout, of Merkel and RiceFebruary 28, 2006 / Ulrike Guérot, Marta DassùFinancial TimesIs there a female touch at work in foreign policy? Most powerful women would probably deny this and consider the hypothesis thinly veiled discrimination. And yet, meeting in Berlin for an Aspen Conference, we decided to speculate a bit.Background paper: Merkel’s Foreign PolicyFebruary 24, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotDelivered at "Transatlantic Dialogue," hosted in Berlin by Aspen Institute Italy, February 24 and 25, 2006.Much to everyone’s surprise, the new Chancellor Angela Merkel had a glorious start in foreign policy. Within only a couple of weeks, she smoothed out the formerly strained relations with the U.SContain Iran: Admit Israel to NATOFebruary 21, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotThe Washington PostThe choice of how to respond to Iran’s growing threat to the West in general and Israel in particular is not an easy one.The European Union Between Interests and IdentityFebruary 17, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotSpeech, Cultural Politics Convention Evangelical Academy, Loccum, GermanyMerkel’s fuzzy foreign policy agendaFebruary 13, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotEuropeWorld

The grand coalition that has been the outcome of the indecisive election has left the waiting world perplexed. Germany’s future foreign policy choices will probably now be much less spectacular that some had hoped for. We’ll see more shadowy grey areas than we will U-turns, more continuity with the past than stark black-and-white choices. Perhaps we’ll also see a Germany that has even less energy now to devote to foreign policy.

Looking for a Stability Pact for the Southern CaucususFebruary 09, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichNeue Züricher ZeitungGermany is heavily engaged in Georgia. At the same time, Germany does not have a comprehensive foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus.Putin’s Power PoliticsJanuary 16, 2006 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly Standard Volume 011, Issue 17IN A WORLD OF AMERICAN preponderance, European integration, and Asian ascent, it is sometimes hard to take Russia seriously as a great power.Becoming sober again; To Romanticize or Destruct: Germany has yet to find a realistic relationship with RussiaJanuary 15, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDer TagesspiegelDuring centuries of a shared past with a large variety of ties, Germans have sometimes had romanticized notions of Russia as a mythical place spared from modernity’s troubles. Instead of this misplaced German sentimentality, Germany should act upon sobriety, common sense, and rationality when dealing with Russia.Mother mercantilismJanuary 01, 2006 / Jack ThurstonProspect Magazine

To leaven the mood at the opening session of the WTO ministerial conference in Hong Kong in mid-December, Pascal Lamy, the WTO’s newly installed director general, pulled a magic wand from his breast pocket. Progress has been so slow and the main protagonists dug in to such seemingly irreconcilable positions that Lamy, who has the unenviable task of brokering a final deal, could be forgiven for resorting to sorcery.

But if he had been looking for a prop to sum up the overall mood of the delegates and observers arriving in Hong Kong, Lamy might well have brandished a stethoscope. After the acrimonious walkout by developing countries at the last summit in Cancún in 2003, the main objective for the WTO this time around was survival. The diminishing of expectations to such a low level was profoundly depressing, particularly in a year when the British government threw the weight of its twin presidencies of the G8 and the EU behind the trade justice movement.

The good news is that the WTO did survive Hong Kong, and its 149 members agreed a text which includes a small measure of progress towards a final deal. The new text is less than spectacular, but everyone agreed to keep talking, and to hold a Hong Kong 2 in Geneva in the spring. The bad news is that there is an enormous amount still to do, and not much time in which to do it.

The EU delegation came to Hong Kong expecting the worst. In the late summer "bra wars," Peter Mandelson had flunked his first major test as EU trade commissioner, and over the months that followed, the US consistently outmanoeuvred the EU in the build-up to Hong Kong. If America's multibillion-dollar cotton subsidies, so crippling to poor west African farmers, had made the US the villain at Cancún, it did not seem impossible that fortress Europe would carry the can for a potentially fatal breakdown at Hong Kong. This is because progress in agriculture, the sector of the world economy most heavily distorted by trade barriers and most important to developing countries, has become the prerequisite for progress in other areas like manufactured goods and services. Brazil, the world’s most competitive agricultural exporter and leader of the powerful G20 grouping of developing countries, recently turned its fire away from US cotton, corn and soybean subsidies and towards Europe’s farm tariffs.

Mandelson’s negotiating position has not been helped by a French government whose leaders – from President Chirac down – seem to relish the chance to strut on the world stage and belittle EU institutions by threatening to veto any trade deal which might require shaving a little of the fat from Europe’s bloated farm subsidy programmes. US negotiators face exactly the same kind of opposition from an increasingly protectionist congress, but the difference is that for the most part congress has had the good grace to refrain from using the handcuffs in such a public manner.

Facing isolation, Mandelson’s strategy in the early exchanges at Hong Kong was to go on the offensive. To the point of obsession, he criticised US "food aid" (see "Aid-dumping," Prospect July 2005), arguing that it serves the narrow interests of American farmers and aid charities more than the needs of the world's hungry. In a more subtle and effective move, he challenged the US, Japan and middle-income countries, including Brazil, to match the EU’s unilateral move to completely open its markets to the 50 least developed countries for all products other than armaments. Economists tell us that the benefits of trade liberalisation always outweigh the costs. While this may be the case as far as economics is concerned, with politics the reverse is closer to the truth.

The countdown is running: Europe needs a vision for the 21st CenturyJanuary 01, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotInternational Politik

When Germany takes over the EU presidency in the first half of 2007, it must be clear where Europe is heading. The tracks for the direction of the EU have to be switched now -- even if the EU gives a rather disoriented impression at the moment. This critical analysis of the current state of the European project sketches out what a European vision for the 21st century could be -- that of an outgoing and active Europe that plays a formative role in world politics.

The case for ending subsidies is yet to be wonDecember 06, 2005 / John AudleyFinancial TimesOne week from now, trade negotiators from more than 150 countries will meet in Hong Kong to begin the last leg of the first trade round dedicated to promoting economic development and poverty reduction. They will be besieged by the motley circus of media, business people, non-governmental organisations and protesters that has followed the World Trade Organisation since Seattle in 1999. Enjeux globaux, peurs nationalesDecember 01, 2005 / Benoît ChervalierL'Organisation mondiale du Commerce (OMC) est-elle en mesure de réussir son cycle de négociation?A Sensational CoupNovember 23, 2005 / Benoît ChervalierFinancial Times DeutschlandInstead of enlarging the Security Council, EU members should agree on two instead of three non-permanent seats. The open seat could be assigned to the group of Asia and Africa, showing Europe’s willingness for just representation. Without any additional changes to the UN Charta necessary, this proposition could be more easily adopted than other reform proposals.Base PoliticsNovember 01, 2005 / Alexander CooleyForeign Affairs Volume 84 No. 6Winds of ChangeOctober 13, 2005 / John AudleyWallstreet Journal EuropeConfronted by strong political winds in the aftermath of two devastating hurricanes and gusts of hot air blowing off Capitol Hill, the Bush administration still has signaled the right message on global trade negotiations: Breaking the deadlock in the WTO’s Doha round of talks begins by taking initial steps to reform U.S. farm policy.Merkel’s coalition will be lucky to survive two yearsOctober 11, 2005 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial TimesGermans heaved a collective sigh of relief on Monday when they heard that the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats had finally cut a deal to form a grand coalition government, to be headed by Angela Merkel. Germans do not much like uncertainty, and they certainly do not like it in their politics. After three weeks of wrangling following the inconclusive September 18 poll, it seemed any news would be good news. But just how good is it, and for whom?Come sarà la nuova politica estera di Angela Merkel?October 10, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotFocus, Aspen Institute ItaliaAs Germany is a core country in the middle of Europe, the anticipated general elections caused a lot of expectations on a new government that won’t be constituted until November. Yet, it is sure that Angela Merkel will lead a grand coalition, and it is essential for foreign observers to know what her foreign policy could be. This article analyzes likely changes in German policy under a chancellor Merkel and tries to show what realistic expectations can be made.Why Europe Will Run the 21st CenturySeptember 13, 2005 / Mark LeonardAfter launching in Europe earlier this year, Mark Leonard's Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century will be released for an American audience on September 13. Leonard wrote the book while serving as a Transatlantic Fellow with the German Marshall Fund in Washington, DC, and in it describes the European Union’s strength as a “transformative power.”Merkel’s New Foreign Policy: What, if Anything, Will Change?September 08, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotAmerican Institute for Contemporary German Studies

If Angela Merkel is elected and put in the position to run a governmental coalition together with the liberals (FDP) – the only coalition that would allow real change in foreign policy – some things in German European and foreign policy may indeed change.

Leidenschaftslose 51 GradSeptember 07, 2005 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial Times Deutschland

Distanz zu den USA, Skepsis gegenüber Ankara: Was die Deutschen über die Außenpolitik denken, bestimmt auch den Spielraum der nächsten Regierung.

America must make democracy a global causeSeptember 07, 2005 / Craig KennedyFinancial TimesPresident George W. Bush, in his second term inaugural speech, placed the promotion of democracy at the centre of the American foreign policy agenda. A recent GMF poll shows both Europeans and Americans supportive of democracy promotion.China’s Rise Threatens to Divide Asia, Not Unite ItAugust 22, 2005 / Daniel TwiningFinancial Times

Not since modern Japan moved on to the world stage a century ago has a non-western power emerged with such potential to transform the global order as China today. The Pentagon sees a budding rival military power; the US Congress views Chinese acquisitions of US companies as a national security threat; and Mario Monti, the former European commissioner, laments that Europe could one day be little more than "a suburb of Shanghai".

The EU Can Continue to Unite Without a ConstitutionAugust 01, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotEuropean AffairsNeither Albania nor Turkey will join the European Union if, when the time comes, the EU Presidency is still rotating among member governments, with each one taking a six-month stint at the reins. Either the European Union gets a constitution that streamlines its institutions, thereby abolishing the rotating presidency, or none of the long list of aspiring member countries is likely to enter the Union in the foreseeable future.Rethinking the EU: Why Washington Needs to Support European IntegrationAugust 01, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotSurvival; vol. 47, no. 3; Autumn 2005; pp. 93?102It is time for the United States to rethink its policy toward the European Union and European integration more broadly. The challenges of the twenty-first century and America’s changing priorities and strategic needs are making the United State more rather than less dependent on the EU and its success.The Origins of Atlanticism in Central and Eastern EuropeJuly 01, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotCambridge Review of International Affairs, Volume 18, Number 2, July 2005; pp. 203-216This article argues that the Atlanticism of Central and Eastern Europe originates in a specific set of historical experiences these countries have had with the United States over the past century. These include the Central and East European encounter with both Nazi and communist totalitarian regimes; a recognition of the leading role the US played in toppling communism and in facilitating the integration of these countries into Euro-Atlantic institutions; and the strategic calculation of many countries in the region that their national interests in Europe are better preserved via active American engagement that balances the influence of other major European powers.Paris, Berlin, disputez-vous!June 13, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotLibération

Despite the French “no” vote, the Franco-German relationship remains strategic, primordial, and essential for Europe.  Nothing will happen without or against France, Germany, or the two combined.  All things considered, however, the relationship needs more cooperation.  Both countries are perceived as anti-liberal, anti-enlargement, and anti-American, and they both share the blame for this.  Germany has forgotten certain key elements of its European policy, and France over-promoted the idea of European-American counterpoise.  Now Germany finds itself in a difficult balance — trying to help France find its way in the newly enlarged Europe without being pulled into France’s shrinking refuge.  This new, larger Europe needs the Franco-German relationship to expand its perception and enlarge itself, helping to organize the Europe of tomorrow, not yesterday’s small Europe of Charlemagne.