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On Defense, France Bites the Bullet, But Avoids Strategic Insolvency May 7, 2013
Iceland’s Recovery Saga Presents Opportunities for Brussels, Washington—and Beijing May 6, 2013
Which Way Forward for Europe’s Hybrid Regimes? May 2, 2013
The Arab Revolts and the Liberal Order May 2, 2013
Events
GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
News & Analysis Archive
The Great Sino-Indian Alpine Tent Party of 2013May 09, 2013 / Dhruva JaishankarForeign Policy
China's latest border squabble with India might seem trivial, but the consequences could set Asia on edge. Whose Pacific Century? The 113th Congress and AsiaApril 22, 2013 / Daniel Twining, Edward GresserThe National Bureau of Asian Research
This report examines the issues in Asia that the 113th Congress will confront—from the pace and scale of military drawdown in Afghanistan to an increasingly dangerous North Korea.Gentle GiantMarch 06, 2013 / Dhruva JaishankarForeign Policy
Given its enormous size, India's military has relatively little political or bureaucratic clout -- particularly when compared to China -- and consequently less say in resource allocations. The Karzai We NeedFebruary 21, 2013 / Mark R. JacobsonCNN
Afghanistan needs Karzai the statesman: the Karzai who can work with both the international community and the Afghan people, not just play one against the other. Europe: The Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Offer Three New FrontiersFebruary 12, 2013 / Bruno LétéEuropean Global Strategy
By evolving clearer approaches to these new frontiers, Europe would send a reassuring signal to the rest of the world that it remains a global player.Neighbourhood Policy Paper Series Tackles Issues Affecting Black Sea RegionFebruary 11, 2013 / Slawomir Raszewski et al.CIES and BST
Paper series delves into a range of challenges that the Eastern neighborhood is facing.Five Myths About Obama’s Drone WarFebruary 08, 2013 / Mark R. Jacobsonwashingtonpost.com
While the use of drone warfare has come of age under Obama, whether he comes to be defined by this weapon is very much a political question.Would China Block Korean Unification?January 27, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
Instead of obstructing Korean reunification, Beijing must embrace it and place its chips on the side of Seoul. Engaging WiselyJanuary 16, 2013 / Dhruva Jaishankarwww.forceindia.net
Strategic autonomy has served India’s foreign policy well till now.A Big Year for Transatlantic Ties?January 14, 2013 / Bruce StokesCNN.com
The next twelve months could prove key for both security and economic ties between Europe and the United States.EU should expand its Iran policyJanuary 10, 2013 / Fabrizio TassinariEuropean Voice
EU needs to broaden its approach to Iran so that it goes beyond imposing sanction on the nation.Has Pakistan’s Afghan Policy Really Shifted?December 21, 2012 / Daniel Twining, Javid AhmadForeign Policy
There are reasons to believe that any shift in Pakistan's Afghanistan policy is short-term and tactical.The Bullies of Beijing: China’s Image ProblemDecember 15, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
Military and political actions by the Chinese government have strained diplomatic relations with its neighbors. Global Trends 2030: Scenarios for Asia’s strategic futureDecember 11, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
What kind of role Asia will play in the world, and how it will relate to the United States and other Western powers, in turn will be determined by what form of regional order is operative in 2030. Global Trends 2030: Pathways for Asia’s Strategic FutureDecember 10, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Today the U.S. National Intelligence Council releases its Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worldsreport, authored by the NIC's resident thought leader and global futurist par excellence, Mat Burrows. Several of us in the Shadow Government stable contributed to the report in various ways over the past few years of its development .U.S. has work cut out to make sure Afghan forces are combat readyDecember 10, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.com
US has a challenging task as it prepares Afghan security forces for 2014 drawdown.India’s OceanDecember 07, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarForeign Policy
Could Indian Navy growth shift balance of power in the Pacific Ocean? The Good, the Bad, and the UglyDecember 05, 2012 / Celeste A. WallanderForeign Policy
There’s more than meets the eye to Russia’s change of defense ministers.Rethinking Poland in the Second TermDecember 03, 2012 / Andrew A. MichtaThe American Interest
Poland’s dynamic economy and growing geopolitical weight make it an increasingly important European ally for the United States.A World RecastNovember 30, 2012 / Simon SerfatyRowman and Littlefield
New book by GMF’s Simon Serfaty argues Western era’s passing is exaggerated as an irreversible decline relative to an irresistible rise of other powers.Afghan Security Returns to the GrassrootsNovember 30, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe National Interest
Influential village and tribal leaders still command great legitimacy and act as interlocutors between the government and the local people.Return of the WarlordsNovember 15, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Afghanistan's disintegration after 2014 would negate a national security record under President Obama that Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden might wish to run on in 2016. Can Obama Get Afghanistan Right in Second Term?November 14, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.com
Kabul is once again vying for Washington’s attention, now that the U.S. presidential elections are over.A Great Game Of Spear And ShieldNovember 08, 2012 / Daniel TwiningOutlook
A strengthening of America's ties with India will trigger shifts in the power paradigm in the age of China.
Untapped Trilateralism: Common Economic and Security Interests of the EU, the US and ChinaNovember 08, 2012 / Andrew SmallEUECRAN
Ties between the EU, China, and the U.S. are more interlinked than ever but a joint collaborative response remains elusive.1962′s Other Crisis: India and China go to WarOctober 22, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Diplomat
Despite the importance of Sino-Indian ties for the United States and other regional and global powers, that relationship is prone to much misinterpretation.Avoiding Another Afghan Civil WarOctober 22, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe Daily Beast
Once Washington emerges from the election cycle, it must revisit its Afghan war policy and develop contingencies for a post-2014 Afghanistan. Choose Your Own Adventure for Policy WonksOctober 19, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonForeign Policy
Gaming out a military strike on Iran.Past Choppy WatersOctober 15, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Indian Express
Beijing and Tokyo return to positions of pragmatism over the East China SeaWhy Syria’s regional spillovers could prompt interventionOctober 11, 2012 / Ian LesserChristian Science Monitor
Turkey's forced landing of a Syrian passenger jet from Moscow suspected of carrying military cargo is the latest example of regional spillover from the Syria crisis. China’s Afghan MomentOctober 04, 2012 / Andrew SmallForeign Policy
The looming U.S. drawdown gives China a chance to move into Afghanistan.Don’t give up on IndiaSeptember 21, 2012 / Daniel Twining, Richard FontaineThe Washington Post
India has represented Washington’s major strategic bet in Asia. Was this bet misguided?
Transatlantic Relations Four Years Later: The Elusive Quest for a Strategic VisionSeptember 14, 2012 / Emiliano AlessandriThe International Spectator
The transatlantic tensions of the Bush years are behind us but the future of transatlantic relations remains uncertain at the closing of the Obama term.Mark Jacobson on BBC News Discusses Security in Libya After AttacksSeptember 13, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonBBC News
Mark Jacobson, Senior Transatlantic Fellow for Foreign Policy and Civil Society, talks to BBC News about security risks after U.S. ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans were killed in a consulate attack in Libya.
Eleven Years After 9/11, Afghanistan Still MattersSeptember 11, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe New York Times
The war in Afghanistan has become largely invisible in Washington.The silence is particularly noticeable on the presidential campaign trail.China’s Trust ProblemSeptember 03, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndian Express
Beijing’s “peaceful rise” or “peaceful development” slogan has lost its appeal, if not credibility.Cultural sensitivity key to U.S. role in AfghanistanAugust 31, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.com
Recent green-on-blue attacks have severely eroded NATO’s trust in its local partners and they present a major challenge to the U.S. exit strategy.Everything You Think You Know About China Is WrongAugust 29, 2012 / Minxin PeiForeign Policy 
Are we obsessing about its rise when we should be worried about its fall? Andrew Small Discusses China On Wikistrat’s “Ask a Senior Analyst”August 28, 2012 / Andrew SmallWikistrat.com 
Transatlantic Fellow Andrew Small engaged in a 24-hour Q&A with Wikistrat Facebook followers to answer questions on a number of international issues including China-Pakistan relations, China's role in a post-2014 Afghanistan, China's military clout, and the possibility of the RMB displacing the dollar as the dominant reserve currency.Why civil servants hold the key to Afghan prosperityAugust 17, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN
Kabul's struggle to find competent replacements following the ouster of Karzai's two prominent ministers highlights deeper problems with Afghan politics that reveal the absence of Afghan civil service.Bleak Prospects for No-Fly Zone as Proxy War Grips SyriaAugust 14, 2012 / Ian LesserDeutsche Welle
GMF's Ian Lesser talks to Deutsche Welle about possible military action to stem the violence in Syria as the conflict enters its 18th month in the Middle East nation.Another Round of PokerAugust 14, 2012 / Nicholas SiegelThe European
As tensions rise again over Iran's nuclear program, Washington and Brussels policymakers should keep several things in mind.
Beijing Plays Divide and Conquer to Win in South China SeaJuly 17, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe National 
In the long-simmering South China Sea dispute, the territorial argument is becoming a flashpoint for armed conflict and an increasingly sharp-elbowed strategic tussle between the U.S. and China.
Le bilan d’ObamaMay 29, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLe bilan d'Obama
GMF Paris Office Director Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer wrote a chapter on the approach and practice of war by the Obama administration, in the recently-published book Le bilan d’Obama (Presses de Sciences Po, March 2012) edited by Vincent Michelot and Olivier Richomme.
A More Global NATO to Anchor Liberal Order in a Less Western World?May 29, 2012 / Sarah Rainehttp://gt2030.com
Europe’s extreme dependence on the United States for NATO’s hard security capabilities is bad for stakeholders in the liberal international order and bad for the alliance.
The Rise of the Rest and the Return of Spheres of InfluenceMay 28, 2012 / Minxin PeiGT2030.com
The question being asked most often today is whether rising powers, such as India, China, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, will help maintain the post-WWII liberal order by contributing to its costly maintenance.This may not be the right question to answer.
GMF’s de Hoop Scheffer on implications of France’s withdrawal from AfghanistanMay 24, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferAtlantico
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer wrote an article in French for the journal, Atlantico. The article is on NATO, Afghanistan and transatlantic relations and addresses the strategic and transatlantic implications of France’s decision to withdraw combat troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2012 and the contradictions of NATO’s strategy for Afghanistan.De Hoop Scheffer talks with France 24 on U.S. troop WithdrawalMay 24, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferFrance 24
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer was a guest on The France 24 Interview with Foreign Desk Senior Reporter Gauthier Rybinsky on December 14, 2011, She spoke on the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and the long term political and military implications for the U.S. foreign policy and the future of Iraq.Transatlantic Trends: Public Opinion and NATOMay 16, 2012 / Zsolt Nyiri, Joshua RaisherTransatlantic Trends
While a transatlantic opinion gap still exists on certain security topics, Transatlantic Trends revealed notable shifts that brought public opinion in the U.S. and Europe closer on key security policies.
Election 2014: Afghanistan’s Chance to Get it Right?May 10, 2012 / Javid AhmadForeign Policy
At a time when the U.S. is in need of widespread public support on the Afghan mission, the administration's tone on Afghan governance is feeble.
Sarkozy’s exit could transform France’s world roleMay 07, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonCNN.com
The election of the first French Socialist president since 1995 also could dramatically change France's role in the world, at a particularly sensitive time.U.S. Must Focus on Upcoming Leadership Change in AfghanistanMay 02, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe Christian Science Monitor
When Obama made his secret visit to Afghanistan yesterday, he emphasized America's security role. The US needs to focus on helping Afghanistan build its political and governing capabilities. The Afghan presidential election looms with no plan for a smooth transition of power.
U.S. Has Few Good Options on Afghan Peace Ahead of NATO SummitApril 27, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe Daily Beast
The U.S. has two options for a political solution before withdrawing from Afghanistan. As the Chicago NATO summit approaches, can a deal be found via Pakistan?
Ignoring North KoreaApril 19, 2012 / Amy Studdart, Joshua W. WalkerThe Diplomat
U.S.-Europe-Asia: The New Strategic TriangleApril 16, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Despite claims that the U.S. "pivot" to Asia means a move away from Europe, there are enormous opportunities for the Atlantic allies to work together in a structured, systematic way in rising Asia on key issues like Burma, China, institution building and security.
Ian Lesser: Turkey Plays Critical Role Between East and West on Syria, IranApril 12, 2012 / Ian LesserFrance 24
Ian Lesser joins France24's "The Interview" to discuss Turkey's pivotal role in the Middle East, including the Syria crisis and Iran.The West Runs Out of PowerApril 09, 2012 / Constanze StelzenmuellerPolicy Review
The challenge of the 21st century is not the weak ness of others, but the weakness of the West.
The Chinese Military’s Great Leap ForwardMarch 07, 2012 / Daniel TwiningTransatlantic Take
China’s announcement of a more than 11 percent increase in declared military spending — following two full decades of double-digit increases — raises several uncomfortable questions for Asia and the West.
U.S. Must Maintain Trust with AfghansMarch 01, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonCNN Blog
The burning of Qurans by seemingly unwitting NATO forces is one of the most disturbing chapters in the struggle to bring peace to Afghanistan.
Turkey’s Vision for 2012 and Beyond: Davutoglu’s Washington VisitFebruary 17, 2012 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post
Davutoğlu's 2012 visit to Washington once again showcased Turkey's self-confidence as a rising regional power and vision for its neighborhood.
Can the Afghan economy be saved?February 03, 2012 / Javid Ahmad, Louise LangebyForeign Policy Magazine
Afghanistan is in shambles. With all attention on security concerns, the economy has been left to flounder. But there is long-term potential
in a New Silk Road strategy.
Despite fears of a strategic crisis in Asia, Taiwan’s presidential elections exemplified the normalcy of its democratic process.
The Last Kim of Pyongyang?January 19, 2012 / Daniel M. KlimanForeign Policy Magazine
It's not ridiculous to think that North Korea could take a page from Myanmar and make a shocking U-turn toward democracy.
(Why) Should America Abandon Taiwan?January 10, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
A gathering debate is underway in Washington over whether Taiwan is a spoiler, rather than a partner, in America's Asia strategy as President Obama continues the efforts of Presidents Bush and Clinton to "pivot" towards the region.
After Iraq, a New PragmatismJanuary 09, 2012 / Nicholas SiegelThe European
The Iraq War marked the end of America’s unipolar moment, and has led to a new pragmatism in U.S. foreign policy. Going forward the United States military will need to be smaller, leaner, and smarter.
de Hoop Scheffer on Regime ChangeDecember 30, 2011 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLa CroixGMF's Paris Office Director Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer wrote an article on the long term strategic implications of the military operation in Iraq for U.S. foreign policy, “Quand l’Irak refaconne l’Amerique”, La Croix, December 30th, 2011.North Korea: A New Kim on the BlockDecember 21, 2011 / Amy StuddartTransatlantic Take
Despite tensions between Washington and Beijing, the primary U.S. concern in North Korea — containing Pyongyang’s nuclear proliferation and aggressive behavior — was not fundamentally at odds with that of the Chinese, which was to hold the regime together. There was too much at stake, and too few incentives, to do much more.That confluence was never more than a short-term arrangement, however, and it has just been terminated with the death of North Korea’s ruler Kim Jong-Il. Graveyard of EmpiricismDecember 13, 2011 / Javid Ahmad, Dhruva JaishankarForeign Policy Magazine
The current round of the Afghanistan debate is riddled with mischaracterizations. While the Cold War produced a cohort of Soviet specialists, the war in Afghanistan has failed to produce sufficient regional expertise in the United States.
Don’t Sideline EU EnlargementDecember 07, 2011 / Michael LeighWall Street Journal
Stability in the Balkans may become the next victim of the euro crisis.
Unlike other setbacks, the November 26 NATO assault on Pakistani soldiers that left 26 dead may have larger and irreversable consequences for the U.S. and NATO Allies....
A Strong Case to Drop India Uranium BanDecember 02, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Interpreter
It should be no surprise that New Delhi would welcome an Australian decision to export uranium to India. Isolating India on nuclear matters proved a major — and some might say unnecessary — hurdle for US-India relations.
Dizzy yet? The pros and cons of the Asia ‘pivot’November 22, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The President has finished up a grueling trip to the Asia-Pacific region and can generally feel good about what he accomplished. Like everything this President does, however, the trip was very heavy on political spin.
Bonn and Beyond: Afghanistan’s Uncertain FutureNovember 14, 2011 / Javid AhmadForeign Policy Magazine
While there is no silver bullet for Afghanistan's ills, next month's meeting will at least provide an opportunity for the United States and NATO to lay out a functional roadmap ahead of and beyond 2014 for a successful political, security and economic transition, good governance, peace and reconciliation, and rule of law....
Turkey’s Bold About-Face on SyriaNovember 03, 2011 / Joshua W. WalkerChristian Science Monitor
Turkey's support for Syrian insurgents reverses detente with Damascus. Its about-face can reinforce an Arab League agreement with Syria to end violence, and reassure the West of its commitment to NATO values. But is the break an exception, or a broad change in foreign policy?...
All-Weather Concerns: How Much Can Pakistan Expect From China?October 24, 2011 / Andrew SmallIndian Express
The last few months have been rife with speculation about Beijing’s willingness to fill the void if American financial and military support for Pakistan were to be curtailed. Far from brimming with strategic potential, the China-Pakistan relationship is now increasingly pushing up against its limits
Big Tent Key to Saving AfghanistanOctober 14, 2011 / Javid Ahmad, Louise LangebyThe Diplomat
The US and Afghan governments need to rethink the current peace process. Striking a deal with the Taliban is no magic bullet....
Is the Obama administration willing to back up Clinton’s talk with action?October 14, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton deserves credit for laying out a comprehensive vision for U.S. engagement in the coming Indo-Pacific century. The harder question is whether the Obama administration is committed to maintaining a favorable balance of power in the Asia-Pacific—without which Clinton's many laudable objectives will be impossible to meet.
A Fighting ChanceSeptember 28, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
Although constituting no major revelations, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen’s testimony to a Senate committee last week, in which he accused Pakistan’s government and military of exporting terrorism, has focused public attention across the US and around the world on the growing fissures in US-Pakistan ties.
Will China’s Rise Spoil the Transatlantic Relationship?September 23, 2011 / Andrew Small, Daniel M. KlimanSpiegel Online
A new survey by the German Marshall Fund finds that China's rise is leading Americans to turn their attention away from Europe and to view China as more of a threat than Europeans do. But how much do these factors threaten the trans-Atlantic relationship, and how well can it adapt to changing circumstances?
GMF’s de Hoop Scheffer on Regime Change in Politique EtrangèreSeptember 01, 2011 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferPolitique étrangèreGMF Paris Office Director Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer published an article on the U.S. policy of regime change from Iraq to the Arab revolts, in the journal Politique étrangère, vol. 76, n° 3, autumn 2011, special issue on the U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
Gates was far too nice about Nato’s failingsJune 15, 2011 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial Times
Last week Robert Gates gave a valedictory “shock and awe” speech in Brussels in which he excoriated the military weaknesses of Nato’s European members. But matters are a lot worse than he thinks, says Constanze StelzenmüllerSyria, Libya and the Future of NatoJune 15, 2011 / Stephen SzaboKCRW
Syria is conducting repression of its own people without interference, and, in Libya, Moammar Gadhafi is hanging on longer than expected. Is NATO prepared to protect civilians for humanitarian reasons? Stephen Szabo participates in an interview with KCRW.Turkey’s Global StrategyJune 07, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri, Joshua W. WalkerLSE
After nearly a decade in power, Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has grown increasingly confident in its foreign policy, prompting observers to wondered aloud whether the country might be leaving "the West," forcing that group to confront the question "who lost Turkey?"
Mixed signalsMay 30, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Indian Express
The weeks since the killing of Osama bin Laden by US Special Forces have witnessed intensified recriminations and engagement between the US and Pakistan. Last week, President Barack Obama said that Pakistan’s obsession with India as an existential threat was misplaced, reiterating a theme he and his top advisers have embraced since assuming office.
Obama’s crucial moment in PolandMay 26, 2011 / Ivan Vejvoda
President Obama’s visit to Europe this week is giving him the opportunity to bury once and for all perceptions that have dogged his administration from the outset: that the United States has lost interest in Europe, and has put a higher priority on resetting relations with an authoritarian Russia than it has on the completion of a Europe whole, free, and at peace. Turkey’s Future Reforms and the European UnionMay 24, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriTurkish Policy Quarterly
The European Union (EU) has played a critical role in Turkey’s reform process since the end of the Cold War but over time it has become less central a factor in Turkey’s internal transformation. The goals of “Europeanization” and “democratization” are no longer fully intertwined and the ruling elite seems to be focused on power consolidation just as much as on democratic consolidation. Bingde Comes to WashingtonMay 18, 2011 / Daniel M. KlimanThe Diplomat
In a week dominated by news of the IMF director’s apparently sordid behavior, continued Middle East unrest, and the fallout of the United States’ successful military operation in the now infamous Pakistani city of Abbottabad, the U.S. hosting of China’s top general has received comparatively little media attention.What Future for Japan?May 11, 2011 / Daniel M. Kliman
The devastation wrought by the Great Tohoku Earthquake has reinforced perceptions inside and outside Japan of the country’s seemingly irreversible slide from economic superpower to sick man of Asia. Yet it would be premature to count Japan out as a factor in international politics.
Killing of Osama bin Laden has rehabilitated reputation of U.S. Government, officialsMay 04, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarAsian News International
The dust has already started to settle after President Barack Obama's dramatic announcement on Sunday evening that U.S. special forces had killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a late-night raid on a compound outside Abbottabad.
Why isn’t India buying American fighter jets?April 29, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
India has decided not to buy American F-16's or F/A-18's for the biggest defense tender in its history -- a pending $10 billion-plus contract for 126 multi-role combat aircraft. Following field trials, it has instead shortlisted the Rafale, made by France's Dassault, and the Typhoon, produced by a European consortium.
Dealing with a more assertive ChinaApril 21, 2011 / Andrew Small
In a hearing at the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, GMF's Andrew Small gave testimony on Beijing's increased international assertiveness. Iran and Turkey After Egypt: Time for Regional Realignments?April 19, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri
Both Iran and Turkey have a major stake in how the political landscape in North Africa and the Middle East is reshaped in the months ahead. While regional uprisings (with the possible exception of a resurgence of Kurdish separatism) do not necessarily threaten the stability of the Turkish state, Iran is experiencing its own waves of protests.NATO’s Last ChanceApril 13, 2011 / Andrew A. MichtaThe American Interest
As spring 2011 bursts into bloom, the NATO alliance finds itself withering on the vine. An alliance that was once the quintessential expression and spearpoint of the Transatlantic security relationship is now at risk of undermining it.
Understanding The Arab and Mediterranean RevolutionsApril 12, 2011 / Andrew A. Michta
Well before the recent unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, GMF has been a leader in conducting and disseminating research and analysis on Mediterranean political, economic, and security issues. Lafond debates London Conference on LibyaApril 01, 2011 / Francois Lafond
GMF's François Lafond participates in a France24 debate on the recent London Conference on Libya.Germany’s unhappy abstention from leadershipMarch 28, 2011 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial Times
“The world knows it can rely on us,” said Guido Westerwelle in October, when Germany had secured its goal of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. But can the world rely on Germany when it counts?Francois Lafond on Libya SituationMarch 24, 2011 / Francois Lafond
GMF's Francois Lafond recently conducted a series of Q&A sessions with France 24 on the unrest in Libya.The White House’s three worst assumptions on LibyaMarch 21, 2011 / Francois LafondForeign Policy
Now that the United States has joined the French and British in attacking Qaddafi's forces in Libya, Will Inboden suggests the Obama administration merits support. However, he admits it might have now come too late.What we learned from the Security Council debate over LibyaMarch 18, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The United Nations Security Council voted to authorize military intervention to protect the Libyan people from the depredations of Colonel Qaddafi's rule. What have we learned from the debate over the resolution and its outcome?
Francois Lafond on Unrest in EgyptMarch 11, 2011 / Francois LafondFrance 24
François Lafond participates in debate on the recent turmoil in Egypt and the Arab world, and on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 2011 Munich Conference remarks.
The 112th Congress and Post-Crisis AsiaMarch 11, 2011 / Daniel TwiningNBR
An appreciation of America's enduring strengths should be a source of confidence for the 112th Congress. With the right choices, the U.S. will meet the challenges in Asia, draw benefits from Asian growth and peace, and continue to shape the future.
Echoes of the Soviet SurgeMarch 04, 2011 / Niels AnnenForeign Policy
The war in Afghanistan is not going well. A young president wants to pull out, but is boxed in by his generals. In Kabul, a corrupt, nominally democratic leader is losing his grip on power. A surge of ground troops has begun. The year is 1985.The Pakistan ParallelFebruary 21, 2011 / Daniel TwiningWeekly Standard
Why has the Obama administration been so tepid in its support for the biggest popular revolution in the modern Arab world? The short answer is Washington’s fear that a vacuum left by President Mubarak’s departure will be filled by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.
Stopping the Transatlantic DriftJanuary 25, 2011 / Constanze Stelzenmueller, Tomas ValasekInternational Herald Tribune
You might call it the Obama paradox: Atlanticists on both sides of the ocean were certain that this president, inaugurated two years ago, would renew the trans-Atlantic alliance. Yet two years later, the United States and Europe seem further apart than they have ever been in their policies as much as in public attitudes.
China in 2011 and beyondJanuary 19, 2011 / Martin Jacques, Joseph Quinlan, Andrew SmallGMF Blog
To coincide with President Hu Jintao's historic visit to Washington, DC, GMF has published three articles on the state of China's relations with transatlantic partners.Will Turkey remain an American ally?December 14, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post
The headline stories from WikiLeaks of the last few days have focused attention on American foreign policy, with a particular focus on the strains within and with historic allies. The central role of Turkey in these revelations has caused further apprehension in U.S.-Turkish relations at an already tense moment in the alliance.
Holbrooke Remembered for Contributions to Transatlantic RelationsDecember 14, 2010 / Joshua W. Walker
The German Marshall Fund is very saddened by the death of Ambassador Richard C. Holbrooke. He was a close friend of GMF and a committed transatlanticist. The transatlantic community will greatly miss his tireless efforts as a diplomat.Beijing’s behavior increases risk of war on the Korean PeninsulaDecember 09, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
Beijing's leadership role in the Six Party Talks on North Korea once embodied U.S. hopes that China would become a responsible stakeholder in issues of regional and global security. But its behavior toward an erratic and belligerent Pyongyang increasingly belies them.An EU Model for Asia?October 29, 2010 / Amy StuddartThe Straits Times
Despite being the largest meeting of heads of state and government in the world, the 8th Asia Europe Meeting (Asem) held in Brussels last week went largely unnoticed by the majority of the inhabitants of the two continents its members represent.A Roadmap for Revitalizing the U.S. Partnership With IndiaOctober 19, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The patchwork of initiatives established between NATO and Asia has never been framed by any overarching region-specific rationale. Insofar as there is a strategic imperative driving outreach in the region, it has been an effort to draw in "global partners" into closer cooperation with existing alliance operations - primarily in Afghanistan - rather than any broader process of identifying shared security concerns either with the major Asian powers or even with traditional partners in the region.Turkey Drifts AwaySeptember 24, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Add Turkey to the Obama administration’s lengthening list of foreign-policyheadaches.America’s silence makes us complicit in Russia’s crimesSeptember 20, 2010 / Bruce StokesWashington PostWhat will it take for higher levels of the Obama administration to unequivocally condemn arrests of activists, violence against protesters, pressure on journalists, and murders of government critics in Russia?China’s maritime agression should be wake-up call to JapanSeptember 20, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The Sino-Japanese standoff over Japan's detention of a Chinese trawler captain who acted aggressively towards the Japanese coast guard in waters near the disputed Senkaku islands is part of a larger pattern of Chinese assertiveness towards its neighbors over the past few years.
Search for Plan BSeptember 03, 2010 / Bruce Stokes
The image of U.S. helicopters airlifting Americans from Saigon rooftops in 1975 continues to haunt U.S. policy makers 35 years later as they grope for an exit from Afghanistan. With parliamentary elections scheduled for September 18 and the drawdown of U.S. forces in the country slated to begin by mid-2011, the debate about a Plan B for Afghanistan has begun in earnest.Russia must be part of the European utopiaAugust 15, 2010 / Constanze Stelzenmueller
Two years after the 2008 war between Georgia and Russia, it is time for the US and Europe to realise that this was a watershed moment for the west. Of course, it was a disaster for Georgia, but it also sent a shock wave across the post-Soviet space.When Sanctions Work: The Belarus BuckleAugust 11, 2010 / Damon Wilson
Almost as soon as the United Nations Security Council voted in June for a new sanctions resolution against Iran, doubters questioned whether it would have any real impact on Iran’s behavior.Walk, But Learn to Chew Gum, TooAugust 10, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerHeinrich Boell Foundation
The Russo-Georgian war was a defining moment for the United States and Europe, showing the flaws of Western policy for the region. The challenge of crafting a coherent and effective policy for Eastern Europe remains unresolved on both sides of the Atlantic.Afghanistan: The Consequences of a “Conceptual Withdrawal”July 29, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Spiegel Online; Real Clear World
"We have moved from a narrative, which lasted for years, that everything was fine when it wasn’t to a narrative that everything is going wrong when it isn’t.” This lament from a former Western official, who, like others quoted in this piece, did not speak for attribution, summed up the frustrations of many in Kabul about the growing disconnect between the political timetables inside and outside the country. The concern is not only that the various transition deadlines are unrealistic, but that their very existence is creating counterproductive pressures that will make them even harder to achieve.
Why the U.S. can’t look to NATO or the EU to support its Russia strategyJuly 23, 2010 / Stephen SzaboEurope's World
Europe is proving a foreign policy disappointment to the Obama Administration as it struggles to propound a clearer strategy toward Russia. Washington now recognizes, says Stephen Szabo, that only Berlin has the key to a new relationship with Moscow.U.S. Acted Too Hastily in Spy SwapJuly 12, 2010 / Stephen SzaboThe Moscow Times
Most analysts in the United States are praising U.S. President Barack Obama and the way his administration handled the spy swap. Many in Russia, by comparison, are blasting the Foreign Intelligence Service for an inept, clumsy spy operation that embarrassed their country. Both governments seem eager to put the controversy behind them as quickly as possible, but many questions remain unanswered before this episode gets relegated to the history books.
On Wednesday, China and Pakistan signed pacts on cooperation in agriculture, healthcare, justice, media, economy, and technology. Both sides also vowed to step up joint efforts against terrorism. But while the relationship between the two countries is strong, it's shadowed by Beijing's concerns about Pakistan's security threat and its impact on Chinese investment and personnel in Pakistan.David Kramer discusses the future of Russian-U.S. relations following the arrest of ten alleged Russian spiesJuly 06, 2010 / Andrew SmallC-SPAN
David Kramer, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow, discusses the arrest by the FBI of ten people in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia suspected of being undercover Russian agents and what this could mean for U.S. and Russia relations.China presses ahead with Pakistan nuclear deal – and contemplates U.S. withdrawal from AfghanistanJuly 06, 2010 / Andrew SmallGMF Blog
GMF's Andrew Small blogs on his recent trip to China to discuss Afghanistan and Pakistan, including interviews on the Chashma-3 and 4 deal with Pakistan.Zardari’s Visit to China (audio interview)July 05, 2010 / Andrew SmallDeutsche Welle Radio
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is traveling to China on Tuesday for high-level talks on nuclear cooperation. Andrew Small talks to Deutsche Welle Radio about the effects Zardari's visit is likely to have on the balance of power in the region.How to prevent another war in the Southern CaucasusJuly 03, 2010 / Andrew SmallThe Washington Post
After Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's recent visit, the Obama administration wants to prove it has a strategy to deepen ties with allies such as Poland while it pursues a reset with Russia, so it has sent Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on a whirlwind tour of Central and Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. The trip also seeks to blunt conservative criticism that Washington is sacrificing allies for the sake of reconciliation with Moscow.
Clinton to Kyiv: Speaking truth to powerJuly 01, 2010 / Andrew SmallMoldova.orgOf all the stops on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s upcoming trip to Europe, none is more important than Ukraine. This is a country heading in the wrong direction—as evidenced by the disturbing and rapid rollback of its democratic gains. Much is at stake, for the implications of a Ukraine moving toward a non-democratic, if not authoritarian, system of governance are enormous not just for Ukraine, but also for Europe and the United States.China’s Caution on Afghanistan-PakistanJune 30, 2010 / Andrew SmallWashington Quarterly
Although the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan looks like a prime candidate for closer cooperation between the United States and China, prospects of pursuing complementary policies will remain limited until China fundamentally reappraises its strategy for dealing with extremism in the region.McChrystal’s Replacement Marks the End of the “Big Macs” in AfghanistanJune 29, 2010 / Niels AnnenSocial Europe Journal
The McChrystal incident is not only meat for the tireless hosts of cable news shows; it also represents another chapter in the sometimes complicated relationship between the commander-in-chief and his generals.‘A lack of fire in the belly,’ concludes Pakistan on Obama’s war strategyJune 25, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
No matter how talented General David Petraeus proves to be commanding American and NATO forces, it is hard to see how our Afghan strategy can be successful absent a strategic reorientation by the Obama administration that creates a different calculus for leaders in Kabul and Rawalpindi (headquarters of the Pakistani armed forces) with regard to the Afghan endgame.
Modernizing Russia’s Economy… and PoliticsJune 24, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyU.S. policymakers for years have lamented their lack of leverage in pushing for democratic reform and respect for human rights in Russia. Well, now we may have an opportunity, but the question is whether we will make use of it. If Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is serious in wanting our help with his economic modernization agenda, we should insist that he needs to make measurable progress in political liberalization first.No, it’s not a gentler, kinder RussiaJune 22, 2010 / Daniel TwiningWashington Post
Ahead of Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Washington this week, a "leaked" Russian foreign policy document is causing some Russia watchers to wonder whether the Russian president is shifting his country toward a more positive, pro-Western stance. A careful read of the 18,000-word document does not support such wishful thinking. Read
Net assessment involves simulations, opposition analysis, historical and cultural studies, critical reviews and low-probability, high-impact contingency planning. Read
Twenty Years of Western Democracy Assistance in Central and Eastern EuropeJune 15, 2010 / Pavol DemešIDEA
Before the European Union and its allies can effectively promote democracy in other countries, they need to address the internal problems brought on by the global economic crisis, from which they have not yet fully recovered. Democracy assistance needs to be tailored to the specific needs and expectations of each country and handled with tact and with respect for local democracy activists. Donor countries also need to be aware of ways that pursuing their own economic or security goals can tarnish their democratic credibility. Despite all these challenges, recent history has provided ample evidence that the human spirit and solidarity can overcome even the direst obstacles and may be our strongest resource in the quest for democracy and cooperation in Europe and beyond.After the Reset Button questions lingerJune 09, 2010 / Pavol DemešForeign Policy
There is no denying the vastly improved tone and rapport between the American and Russian presidents compared to the end of the Bush-Putin days. But before people get too carried away, let's focus on two recent developments that remind us of the challenges we face in dealing with Russia.Brave New World? Emerging Powers Need to Show Responsible LeadershipMay 28, 2010 / Niels AnnenSocial Europe Journal
Much has been written about the world becoming multipolar, but nobody seems to be able to tell what such a world would actually look like. After the spectacular nuclear deal between Turkey, Brazil and Iran, the picture becomes a little clearer and it seems that the P5 will have to share some of the world’s attention.Uranium swap declaration improved Turkey’s handMay 19, 2010 / Özgür ÜnlühisarcıklıGlobal Post
The joint declaration of the ministers of foreign affairs of Turkey, Iran and Brazil signed on Monday came as a surprise to the international community. But the United States' reaction to the uranium swap agreement, and the Turkish interpretation of this reaction, once more highlighted the gap between the U.S. and Turkey in their approaches to what is one of the most important issues on the transatlantic agenda.New START vs. missile defense: is it one or the other?April 30, 2010 / Özgür ÜnlühisarcıklıForeign PolicyThe Obama administration is already gearing up its push for Senate ratification of the recently signed START agreement between the United States and Russia. As senior administration officials make their case around town at various think tanks and before Congress, they need to do a better job of refining their message to make sure it stands up to scrutiny.Helping Obama Close Guantanamo is in Europe’s InterestApril 24, 2010 / Niels AnnenWith a record approval rating of 88% in Germany, President Barak Obama shouldn't be too much concerned about his plea to Europeans to help him close the detention Camp Guantanamo at the US base in Cuba. But sympathy alone does not lead to a new policy. Obama is learning this the hard way. And Europeans may miss a unique opportunity to influence the way in which the US is going to deal with terrorists in the future.Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century: The Role of Korean-American Partnership in Shaping Asia’s Emerging OrderApril 01, 2010 / Daniel TwiningThe U.S.-ROK Alliance in the 21st Century (book chapter)
While the United States' other relationships in Asia have transformed as the region has re-emerged, the relationship with South Korea remains stuck in the past, frozen by the continuing conflict on the Korean peninsula. South Korea and the United States will both benefit from a strengthened alliance, positioning both countries in a space where they can adapt and thrive in an Asian century.
Friend or Foe: Does the Obama administration know the difference?March 22, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyA slam against the Obama administration heard with greater frequency these days is that it is much harder on its allies than on its enemies (even former enemies). At the same time that it desperately tries to win over "new friends," the administration treats its old friends either with indifference (e.g., most of Europe) or a critical eye. A perfect example of this is the administration's handling of the recent blow-up with Israel over settlements in East Jerusalem as compared with its response to Russia's announcement last week on nuclear reactors in Iran.Hands Off Our Shackles, PleaseMarch 01, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerIP GlobalThe momentous decision made by a German colonel in September to call in a NATO air strike on fuel trucks hijacked by the Taliban could become a test of Germany’s maturity 20 years after regaining complete sovereignty. But this incident, and its handling, has already turned a harsh spotlight on the shortcomings of German security policy
What the capture of Mullah Baradar says about Pakistan’s intentionsFebruary 16, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe capture of Taliban commander Mullah Baradar in a combined Pakistani-American intelligence operation in Karachi is a major development in the war on terror. This is true not only, and obviously, with reference to the military campaign against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Perhaps more profoundly, it is also true with reference to the future of U.S.-Pakistan relations.Quitting Isn’t An OptionFebruary 09, 2010 / Daniel TwiningTimes of IndiaWorld leaders meeting in London recently to discuss Afghanistan's future have dealt themselves a weak hand. The principal obstacles to success in Afghanistan have not been the adversary's strength or any lack of support for the international mission by the Afghan public. Rather, the primary obstacles to victory have been western temporising, irresolution and planned force reductions on a timeline that better suits the Taliban's strategic objectives than our own.Dealing With a More Assertive ChinaFebruary 08, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Al Jazeera; Forbes; The Diplomat; RealClearWorld; Foreign Policy; The Atlantic Community
The mood on China in Western capitals is beginning to darken. From cyber-attacks to obstinacy in Copenhagen, Beijing's assertiveness and the hardening tone of its diplomacy are prompting a rethink. If the competitive aspects of the relationship with China are going to dominate in the years ahead, have the United States and Europe got their strategies right? And if not, what are the options?The Imperialists from MoscowFebruary 06, 2010 / Andrew SmallSueddeutsche ZeitungEighteen months ago, a war took place in Europe between Russia and Georgia. It was a little war by the standards of modern warfare but it nevertheless shook the world. It sparked the greatest crisis in European security since the Balkan wars of the mid-1990s and brought Russia and the West to the edge of a new Cold War. Moscow not only invaded a neighbor for the first time since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. It broke the cardinal rule of post-Cold War European security that borders in Europe would never again be changed by force of arms.Getting Afghanistan right in LondonJanuary 29, 2010 / Daniel TwiningTransatlantic TakeIf there is one thing the allies can accomplish in London, it is to signal to the Afghan Taliban - and to all Afghans and neighboring powers sitting on the fence, waiting to cast their lot with the winning side - that NATO is in this fight to win it.Some American Priorities For 2010January 23, 2010 / Francois LafondDéfense NationaleU.S. President Barack Obama’s greatest achievement during his first year in office has been to dramatically improve the image of the United States around the world. His actions and ideas are viewed favorably by most Europeans. This “Obama effect” has also affected U.S. foreign policy. From a European perspective, Obama now has four main foreign policy goals to achieve. The most crucial test for the Obama administration in 2010 will be the so-called “clash of civilizations.” The Israeli-Palestinian peace process is stalled, and Iranian nuclear negotiations are in a deadlock. Nevertheless, Obama’s open-handed and global rhetoric will help the regional actors to better engage with one and other and lead to new paths of progress. Obama’s three other foreign policy challenges are: “afghanizing” the ongoing “war of necessity,” trying an open-handed approach to Russia, and putting back on track the fundamental issue of strategic alliances such as NATO. These are the four areas on which U.S. foreign policy will be assessed.Get China right by getting Asia rightJanuary 21, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyIn 2010, President Obama would be well-advised to shift from an "inside-out" to an "outside-in" Asia policy. Rather than taking an approach to this dynamic region that starts with Beijing, raising fears of a Sino-American condominium, he could follow former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's maxim that "getting China right means getting Asia right." Eine deutsche PakistanstrategieJanuary 09, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, Daniel TwiningBerliner ZeitungIn this German-language op-ed (full text in original language here), Kleine-Brockhoff and Twining argue that ignoring Pakistan is dangerous for a country that has troops in Afghanistan -- even if it is only a midsize country and has no historical ties to Pakistan or interests there. But if Germany wants to be successful in Afghanistan and eventually withdraw, it will have to engage more actively in Pakistan, and make more resources and attention available.Cheer up America: You’re still on top of the world.January 05, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe United States need not be so pessimistic about its future. Its position in the world continues to grow in significance, and there is little indication that it is entering a period of decline - even in the face of Asia's rise.The Self-Chained RepublicJanuary 01, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerInternationale PolitikThe lonely decision by a German colonel in Kunduz to call in a NATO airstrike on Taliban forces who had hijacked a pair of fuel trucks may yet become a maturity test for Germany's political culture, twenty years after the fall of the Wall. A specially created investigative committee in the German federal legislature will now examine who was responsible for the many weaknesses and flaws apparent in the incident itself, as well as in its handling. But it is unlikely to examine the fundamental issues at the heart of German security policy: Does Germany even have a security policy which deserves that name? Does it have a strategy? How effective are the actors, institutions and instruments of German security policy?Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century: The Role of Korean-American Partnership in Shaping Asia’s Emerging OrderDecember 31, 2009 / Daniel TwiningKINUNortheast Asia is a region where the interests of several great powers are in constant flux between competition and cooperation. Such a peculiar strategic environment is reflected in the dynamics of the Korean Peninsula.Russia’s ‘sphere’ in EuropeDecember 26, 2009 / Daniel TwiningThe Washington PostAs Washington and Moscow zero in on a new strategic arms control treaty, it is time to look at what lies ahead in U.S.-Russian relations. The greatest gap between Western and Russian thinking today may not be on Afghanistan or Iran. It may well be on Europe.Resetting U.S. Russian Relations: It Takes TwoDecember 16, 2009 / Daniel TwiningWashington QuarterlyPresident Barack Obama deserves credit for his initial efforts to reverse the deterioration in relations between the United States and Russia. The downward spiral in bilateral ties accelerated by Russia's invasion of Georgia last year has ended for now, but relations are not likely to improve appreciably because of fundamental differences in values, interests, and outlook between the two countries' leaderships.What is Obama’s real ‘Exit Strategy’ for Afghanistan? And why it matters to IndiaDecember 04, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyOne way to judge President Obama's speech announcing (another) new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan is by how it fares among those on the front lines. As one senior official in Kabul puts it in today's Wall Street Journal Asia, "We couldn't solve the Afghanistan problem in eight years, but now the U.S. wants to solve it in 18 months? I don't see how it could be done."
Why Obama needs to play his cards right with IndiaNovember 24, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyAs Obama sits down with Prime Minister Singh, he should consider India as the key ally of the U.S. in Asia, both in terms of practical cooperation on global issues and in terms of ensuring that India continues to rise as an alternative to China, sharing the values of the West. Global security conference opens in Halifax this weekendNovember 19, 2009 / Craig KennedyThe Chronicle HeraldWhen the Halifax International Security Forum gets underway Friday, it will be the first gathering of its kind in North America. There have been events like this in Europe for years, notably the Munich Security Conference, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and Brussels Forum in Belgium. Because of Halifax's historical, commercial, and strategic status in the transatlantic community, this city is the right place to hold this inaugural meeting.Afghanistan and Pakistan: Time for the Hatoyama Administration to Show Japan’s Latent PowerNovember 18, 2009 / Daniel TwiningWedgeIn a day where Japan's importance in the world seems to be diminishing, 'AfPak' is a valuable opportunity for Japan to demonstrate that it is still an important player in both Asia and the world at large, as well as to support its transatlantic allies. A crib sheet for President Obama’s upcoming Asian summitryNovember 10, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe United States is at the center of the international system in Asia, and desirably so. During his visit to Asia, President Obama should show that he has a strategic vision for sustaining American leadership in the region.Is China a new ideological superpower? Don’t bet on it.October 29, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyChina's political system makes it an outlier in a democratic Asia, rather than an example of a new model. Afghanistan-Pakistan: Bringing China (Back) InOctober 23, 2009 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
Of all the regional actors engaged in Afghanistan and Pakistan, China's role is perhaps the most opaque. Alternately coaxed as a potential savior and condemned as a parasitic free-rider, the transatlantic allies have not yet worked out how to harness Beijing's undoubted influence and economic clout. This is not altogether surprising: China's motives are complex and at times contradictory. But if the United States and Europe play their hand well, an opening exists - Beijing's security calculus is changing in ways that are increasingly favorable to greater cooperation.Euro Defence Spending and NATOOctober 20, 2009 / Daniel FataGlobalBriefThis week, NATO defence ministers are meeting in Bratislava for their thrice-annual regular meeting. Topping the agenda will be a discussion about the current status of Allied defence capabilities – specifically, the need to improve and invest in such capabilities. The discussion comes in the midst of NATO’s ongoing operations in Afghanistan and Kosovo, and on the heels of the Obama administration’s decision to largely retool and resize America’s ballistic missile defence system in Europe – a decision that has reenergized the debate in Central and Eastern Europe as to whether more emphasis should be placed on procuring military capabilities to defend the territory of the newest Allied member states, or whether NATO members should continue procuring materials for expeditionary operations.Opinion: A hidden deal on Iran sanctions?October 17, 2009 / Daniel FataGlobal PostFor those hoping the international community might finally be getting more serious about possible sanctions against Iran for its continued defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions, the headlines this week were downright discouraging. “In Face of Sanctions Push, China Warms Up to Iran,” The New York Times declared on Friday. “China Lauds Ties with Iran,” according to Thursday's Wall Street Journal. And, as Charles Krauthammer noted in his column in Friday’s Washington Post, his own paper said on Wednesday: “Russian Not Budging on Iran Sanctions; Clinton Unable to Sway Counterpart.”Clinton in Moscow: A mixed bagOctober 16, 2009 / Daniel FataForeign PolicySecretary of State Hillary Clinton came away from her visit to Moscow this week with mixed results. The two big ticket items involved Iran and the human rights situation inside Russia.
Now Comes the Hard PartOctober 05, 2009 / Daniel FataThe International Herald TribuneEurope is in love with Barack Obama, according to recent polls. But will this affair of the heart be a brief flirtation or something more enduring? Like many relationships, the partners themselves may not really know until times get tough. With troubles looming in Afghanistan and Iran, that day of reckoning is fast approaching.
Missing from the Georgia ReportOctober 03, 2009 / Jörg HimmelreichThe New York TimesThe Russian-Georgian "five-day war" in August 2008 did not end the political conflict: It has all the potential to explode into a new armed confrontation any day.The stakes in Afghanistan go well beyond AfghanistanSeptember 30, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe problem with the current debate over Afghanistan is that it is too focused on Afghanistan. There is no question that the intrinsic importance of winning wars our country chooses to fight -- to secure objectives that remain as compelling today as they were on September 12, 2001 -- is itself reason for President Obama to put in place a strategy for victory in Afghanistan.Can Berlin and Washington Agree on Russia?September 28, 2009 / Stephen SzaboWashington QuarterlyBoth Russia and Germany are back on the U.S. agenda. Russia will be a key element of a wide array of policies to the Obama administration, including dealing with Iran and the construction of a broader nonproliferation regime, energy security, nuclear arms reductions, and Afghanistan. Russia policy will also be central to U.S. designs for NATO, including how to deal with Georgia and Ukraine, and the viability of a pan-European security structure.A Deal with Moscow? Don’t Bet on ItSeptember 25, 2009 / Stephen SzaboForeign PolicyWill Medvedev's words actually translate into Russian actions when it comes time to draft a tough resolution and vote? The Obama team appears to expect the Russians to go along, especially after its decision last week to scrap Bush administration plans for missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic. McFaul and other senior officials have rejected the notion of such a deal.Shattered Confidence in EuropeSeptember 19, 2009 / Stephen SzaboWashington PostPresident Obama's decision to shelve the Bush administration's missile defense plans has created a crisis of confidence in Washington's relations with Central and Eastern Europe. The defense architecture the administration proposes may make more strategic sense in addressing the immediate Iranian threat. Nevertheless, it runs the risk of shattering the morale and standing of transatlantic leaders in the region who now feel politically undermined and exposed.Placating Russia Won’t WorkSeptember 18, 2009 / Stephen SzaboThe Washington Post
Russian leaders never liked the idea that the United States, Poland and the Czech Republic were cooperating on missile defense to confront an emerging Iranian threat. With the Obama administration's announcement that it is indeed abandoning the Polish and Czech sites, Moscow's complaining appears to have worked.
A Serious MistakeSeptember 17, 2009 / Stephen SzaboNew York Times Room for Debate BlogWhile not surprised by President Obama’s decision, I’m nonetheless very disappointed and think it’s a serious mistake. Leaders in Moscow, by comparison, must feel victorious. Coming days before Obama meets Dmitri Medvedev in New York and Pittsburgh , the decision clearly seems timed to remove from the U.S.-Russian agenda an issue that the Russians didn’t like — namely, that we were working with Poland and the Czech Republic on missile defense.
Our Pakistan ProblemSeptember 14, 2009 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardWhat national interest does the United States have in Afghanistan? According to recent polls, more and more Americans doubt there is any. This flagging support partly reflects the job the Obama administration has done explaining its goals and strategy in Afghanistan to a skeptical public. But it also reflects the underappreciated fact that succeeding in Afghanistan and defeating America's enemies there, as important as that is in its own right, is even more so for its effects in shaping Pakistan's future.
Germany shoots first and thinks againSeptember 09, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerThe Financial TimesThe night a German army colonel by the name of Georg Klein called in a massive Nato airstrike on two fuel trucks hijacked by Taliban fighters in northern Afghanistan was a watershed moment. Although the exact number of casualties is still unknown - estimates suggest more than 50 died - it seems likely that it will prove to have been, as one American newspaper put it, "the most deadly operation involving German forces since World War II". But will we also remember it as the night Germany grew up and started to call a war a war?Fighting Chance Chapter 13: Europe and NatoSeptember 08, 2009 / Ian LesserFighting ChanceSeveral points are worth noting as context for discussing trends and shocks in Europe. First, the region is more dynamic than it appears. At first glance the Western Europe/North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) region seems relatively settled, with a reasonably predictable trajectory, few opportunities for conflict, and gradual social, economic, and political adjustments—a place of gentle trends and few shocks. Is this realistic?Ironed Curtain: The Biggest Loser in the EU’s Report on the Russia-Georgia War is Europe.September 08, 2009 / Ian LesserThe New RepublicAfter the Russo-Georgian War in August 2008, the European Union found itself in a difficult position. Moscow had not only invaded a neighbor for the first time since the Soviet assault on Afghanistan in 1979. In recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, it had also broken the cardinal rule of post-cold war European security: that borders in Europe would never again be changed by force of arms. Yet Georgia, too, had clearly made mistakes, not the least in embroiling itself in a military conflict with Russia that Georgia's own allies had repeatedly warned against. Stelzenmüller becomes a GMF Senior Transatlantic FellowMay 04, 2009 / Ian LesserConstanze Stelzenmüller, the Berlin office director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), will become a Senior Transatlantic Fellow at GMF. In her new capacity Stelzenmüller will work on a broad spectrum of foreign and security policy issues.Questions that Obama’s Af-Pak strategy doesn’t answerMarch 30, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyFellow Republicans have hailed President Obama's new strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan. The new administration's strategy is welcome, both for its substance and, as importantly, for the profile it has given to the urgency of defeating the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan and its growing strength in Pakistan. But as with every strategy, it contains trade-offs and shortcomings that, after the warm glow that has accompanied the Washington establishment's reception of the president's plan has worn off, may become more apparent.Sarkozy’s decision ups pressure on ObamaMarch 14, 2009 / John K. GlennGlobalPostWhen Obama travels to Europe in early April, he will face questions on the economic crisis and about whether Europeans are willing to do more in Afghanistan. Complicating matters is French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s announcement that he will bring France back into the military wing of NATO, reversing Charles de Gaulle’s decision of 40 years ago.Could China and India go to war over Tibet?March 10, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy, RealClearWorld.comToday is the 50th anniversary of the Lhasa uprising. Much of the associated commentary suggests that Tibet is, at most, an internal human rights issue in China, albeit one that impacts China's foreign relations with Western democracies who care about the plight of the Tibetan people. Indeed, the Dalai Lama's admission that Tibet is part of China, and that he seeks true autonomy rather than actual independence for his people, reaffirm this view. There is also, however, an external dimension to the Tibetan crisis, one that implicates core national security interests of nuclear-armed great powers.A New NATO BargainMarch 06, 2009 / Daniel TwiningThe Wall Street Journal EuropeHillary Clinton made her debut yesterday at a NATO foreign ministers meeting in Brussels and today holds her first meeting with her Russian counterpart Sergei Lavrov in Geneva. Coming a month before Barack Obama's inaugural presidential trip to Europe and a NATO summit, this is a chance to hit the reset button not only with Russia but with America's closest European allies.Five Reasons Why This North Korean Crisis is No Groundhog DayMarch 05, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyNorth Korea’s missile and nuclear tests, new threats of war against its declared enemies, and the predictable results of these developments -– expressions of concern at the UN Security Council, U.S. offers of more unconditional talks, China’s ambivalent response –- suggest that we remain in the “Groundhog Day” cycle of crisis and response that has characterized U.S. policy towards Pyongyang since 1994Germany’s Russia QuestionMarch 01, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign AffairsLast July, more than 200,000 people flocked to a public park in Berlin to hear Barack Obama, then the Democratic candidate for president of the United States, deliver a speech calling for renewed transatlantic partnership and cooperation. The choice of Germany’s long-divided capital as the backdrop for his only public speech in Europe was deliberate.To the Germans listening to him that summer evening in the Tiergarten,Obama made a special appeal, citing “a set of ideals that speak to aspirations shared by all people,” the same “dream of freedom” that was the basis of the relationship between the United States and West Germany during the Cold War. Now that Obama is president, will Germany respond to the call and join the United States as a key European partner in addressing global challenges and threats?Don’t Dumb Down AfghanistanFebruary 23, 2009 / Daniel Twining, Gary SchmittThe Weekly StandardReading tea leaves is a dangerous business when it comes to a new administration. There is always a fair amount of floundering around that comes from having too few senior people in place, unsettled -policymaking processes, and indecision over which campaign promises to keep and which to toss overboard. Take, for example, the Obama administration's policy toward Afghanistan. While running for president, Barack Obama promised that help was on its way in the form of thousands of additional troops; now President Obama appears to have put his own promised surge on hold.Don’t move the goalposts on AfghanistanJanuary 28, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyIf Iraq was "Bush's War," Afghanistan may well become "Obama's War." But as the New York Times reports today, the Obama administration is attempting to shift the goalposts in Afghanistan away from building a functioning democracy and toward the limited objective of denying terrorists sanctuary on Afghan soil.Foreign policy and war: Is Barack Obama an “Obamacon?”January 25, 2009 / Michael WerzHeinrich Boell StiftungIn his inaugural address, Barack Obama struck a conciliatory tone in foreign policy. The perhaps most important change in rhetoric from the former Administration is his decision not to talk about the "war on terror." Instead, he chose a descriptive phrase and spoke of a "network of violence and hatred," which must be combated. However, Obama supplemented this clear distinction from his predecessor's exaggerated rhetoric about war and staying the course with an emphatic reaffirmation of military force as a means to achieve freedom or prevent major calamity.
You were at the Inauguration; China was planning for warJanuary 22, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyWhile everyone here in the United States and beyond was focused on Barack Obama's Inauguration on Tuesday, China chose that day to slip this little item under the door -- China's National Defense in 2008, their annual white paper detailing plans for increased defense spending and military modernization.Fidel’s choiceNovember 27, 2008 / Andrew SmallInternational Herald Tribune
It was once said of Fidel Castro that his "stomach is in Moscow but his heart is in Beijing." Now the opposite seems to be true.The EU is in urgent need of a foreign energy policyNovember 11, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichNeue Zürcher ZeitungThe EU is in urgent need of a Foreign Energy Policy. Without closer coordination within the EU, Moscow has more pull.Putin’s Great EmpireOctober 09, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichInternationale PolitikUnfortunately, the Russian Georgia war confirmed that, beyond the constitution and even as prime minister, Putin is still the political leader in Russia and will be so for some time. The war indicated more parallels to the expanding Russian empire of the 19th century than of the USSR after the Second World War when the Soviet Union's main interest in Europe was to consolidate the frontiers. Today's revisionistic Russia in contrast to the the static Soviet Union pursuits to newly revise its frontiers in the European Post Sovitic space. This is driven by an increasing Russian Neonationalism. Europe, in particular, is required to readjust its Russia policy to formulate a robust economic response.
New Plumbing, New Purposes – Rebuilding the Atlantic AllianceOctober 05, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichThe American Interest November/DecemberPrinciples in the pipeline: Managing transatlantic values and interests in Central AsiaOctober 01, 2008 / Alexander CooleyInternational AffairsAfter 9/11 the Central Asian states hosted coalition military bases and became important security partners for operations in Afghanistan. The rising price of oil and gas, coupled with a renewed western concern about its energy security, made the development and export of Central Asian production a much more pressing commercial and strategic priority for Brussels and Washington than it was in the 1990s. A region that was effectively ignored for over a decade has now become a vital area of transatlantic interest.
Climate Change and GeopoliticsOctober 01, 2008 / Michael WerzHeinrich Böll StiftungOne of the consequences of climate change is the dearth or excess of water. Both do not only present imminent danger to many human beings but also present a major threat to the global military balance. Global warming, for example, is of concern to the U.S. Navy at all coasts.A balance of power askewSeptember 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDie ZEITIt matters less than it used to what NATO promises new member states or candidate countries. Russia is no longer easily deterred. It's never been a secret that Russia objects to NATO enlargement, especially when it comes to countries bordering its own territory. Post-soviet Russia was initially poor and weak. Russia has since become rich, authoritarian, and has discovered new weapons in gas and oil. At the same time, America is overstretched.
Finding Out Truth about Georgian WarSeptember 17, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffRealClear WorldLast week Senator Hillary Clinton called for a congressional commission to investigate the origins of the Georgian war. It is the latest skirmish in an intellectual battle over how a little war in farway Georgia started and what it mean for US policy for years. There are clashing narratives of what happened and what it means.
Russia warms to the West no moreAugust 26, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffSüddeutsche ZeitungGerman policy vis a vis Russia needs to be rethought. There is no longer a basis for Germany's "Strategic Partnership" with Russia. The occupation of parts of Georgia is a game changer. In 1996, Chancellor Helmut Kohl offered the Russians a deal: Nato would allow the Central and Eastern European countries to join while Russia would be offered to gradually integrate into Western and global institutions. Germany would anker this common western policy. The argument was: Integration would make Russia safer and richer. The strategy has worked: Russia is safe and rich. Yet it is choosing a different path: it wants to be rich, authoritarian and a bully vis a vis its neighbors.NATO’s HourAugust 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe Wall Street Journal EuropeRussia's invasion of Georgia is a game changer. This war is part of a Russian strategy of roll-back and regime change on its borders. The more evidence that comes in, the clearer it is becoming that this is a conflict Moscow planned, prepared for and provoked -- a trap Tbilisi unfortunately walked into. A core Western assumption since 1991 -- that Moscow would never again invade its neighbors -- has been shattered. As Moscow basks in its moment of nationalistic triumphalism, the West needs to take steps to prevent further Russian moves from spreading instability to others parts of Europe.
Naive MiscalculationsAugust 15, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichFrankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungThe Russian military overreaction to Georgian occupation of Tskhinvali will change the German and European relationship with Russia. Europe's helplessness and America's inability to pose a military presence in the Caucasus represents a new geopolitical order in which Russia has yet again established the power to redraw the contours of Europe, going far beyond just its energy distribution power. Russia's agression offers an opportunity for Germany to develop a new Russia policy. Instead of Germany's special relationship with Russia, it seems as though closer cooperation with East European EU members and America could have greater success.
How the West Botched GeorgiaAugust 13, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichThe New RepublicThe guns around Tbilisi have now fallen silent. Efforts are underway to finalize a truce between Russia and Georgia to end Moscow's bloody invasion. It is time for the West to look in the mirror and ask: What went wrong? How did this disaster happen? Make no mistake. While this is first and foremost a disaster for the people and government of Georgia, it is also a disaster for the West--and for the U.S. in particular.
Europa muss aufwachenAugust 13, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltSenior Transatlantic Fellow Joerg Himmelreich discusses the ongoing conflict between Georgia and Russia over breakaway provinces South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This article was written in German.
In weeks and years past, each of us has argued on this page that Moscow was pursuing a policy of regime change toward Georgia and its pro-Western, democratically elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili. We predicted that, absent strong and unified Western diplomatic involvement, we were headed toward a war. Now, tragically, an escalation of violence in South Ossetia has culminated in a full-scale Russian invasion of Georgia. The West, and especially the United States, could have prevented this war. We have arrived at a watershed moment in the West's post-Cold War relations with Russia.
A Hot Proxy War: Moscow’s Power PoliticsAugust 11, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichDer SpiegeThe rapid escalation of the conflict in South Ossetia shows just how much the crisis suits all parties involved. Georgia wants to integrate itself into the West, and Russia wants to prevent just that. The welfare of the South Ossetians plays no role whatsoever.
A War The West Must StopJuly 15, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichThe Washington PostThere is war in the air between Georgia and Russia. Such a war could destabilize a region critical for Western energy supplies and ruin relations between Russia and the West. A conflict over Georgia could become an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. How they respond could become a test of the potential commander-in-chief qualities of Barack Obama and John McCain.Get involved over Georgia or invite a warJune 03, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichFinancial TimesThe west could be sleepwalking into a war on the European continent. Georgia, which burst into view with a moving display of democratic ambition during the Rose Revolution of 2003, is teetering on the brink of war with Russia over the separatist Georgian enclave of Abkhazia. The outcome of this crisis will help determine the rules of the post-cold-war security system. But western diplomats are notsending strong enough signals to either side.
The Dalai ObamaJune 03, 2008 / Constanze StelzenmuellerSüddeutsche ZeitungBarack Obama drums up admiration in Germany as only the Dalai Lama can do, but the end of this euphoria is foreseeable. As America chooses, the world looks on. The next man at the helm of America will determine global politics like none other. In this sense, won't he in fact become the world's President? He's pretty much there, at least that's so far the case in Germany.
The Schism Between Washington and BerlinApril 25, 2008 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFrankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungWhat happened at the NATO Summit in Bucharest is gradually becoming clear. This summit was the most dramatic since Madrid 11 years ago, and, if it becomes dramatic, it could either be a success or not matter whatsoever. A dramatic debate can lead to something new or lead to an uncertain stillstand. In Bucharest it was probably the latter. (This article is written in German)
The End of the End of HistoryApril 22, 2008 / Robert KaganThe New RepublicGMF Transatlantic Fellow Robert Kagan gives five reasons as to why the twenty-first century will look like the nineteenth.
“Preventing the next Cold War” revisitedApril 21, 2008 / Andrew SmallDe Volkskrant
The war in Iraq may yet prove to have one lasting and little-noticed benefit: reducing the threat of a new cold war between the United States and China. The weakening of the U.S. global power position that the war induced has led officials in the second Bush administration to turn again and again to seek the support of the country that they labeled a strategic competitor only a few years earlier.
India’s relations with Iran and Myanmar: “Rogue state” or responsible democratic stakeholder?April 10, 2008 / Daniel TwiningIndia ReviewWhat kind of great power will India become as it rises in the twenty-first century? Indian foreign policy today embodies the contradictions and ambiguities stemming from India's ongoing evolution from a nonaligned, developing nation into one of the world's most powerful democracies. Rethinking NATO Partnerships for the 21st CenturyApril 01, 2008 / Daniel TwiningNATO ReviewSecurity threats today are globalised and non-traditional. It’s time for NATO’s partnerships to follow suit.
Democracy and American grand strategy in Asia: The realist principles behind an enduring idealismMarch 31, 2008 / Daniel Twining, Michael J. GreenContemporary Southeast AsiaHas democracy promotion been discredited as a central theme of American foreign policy after the US experience in Iraq? Many American critics and friends overseas appear to believe so. It would be wrong, however, to believe that the ideational approach of American foreign policy will diminish, particularly in Asia.
China’s changing policies towards rogue statesMarch 18, 2008 / Andrew SmallTestimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC)
Chinese policy towards rogue states has undergone a quiet revolution in the last few years. While China is far from being a genuinely like-minded partner to the United States in dealing with these countries, its cooperation is becoming an increasingly central factor in diplomatic efforts to find solutions to the crises in North Korea, Iran, Sudan, and Burma. The testimony sets out the nature of the shift in Chinese policy, the driving factors, the constraints on its scope, and the implications for U.S. policy.Europe’s Eastern Promise: Rethinking NATO and EU EnlargementDecember 21, 2007 / Andrew SmallIn the early 1990s, after the Iron Curtain lifted, Western leaders seized a historic opportunity to open the doors of NATO and the European Union to post-communist central and eastern Europe. This accomplishment was the result of a common U.S.-European grand strategy that was controversial and fiercely debated at the time. However, Current policy toward Europe's periphery is increasingly out of date.
Time to Talk to IranDecember 05, 2007 / Robert KaganWashington PostRegardless of what one thinks about the National Intelligence Estimate's conclusion that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 -- and there is much to question in the report -- its practical effects are indisputable. The Bush administration cannot take military action against Iran during its remaining time in office, or credibly threaten to do so, unless it is in response to an extremely provocative Iranian action.The U.S. Factor in Sino-European RelationsDecember 01, 2007 / Andrew SmallChina-EU: A Common Future
For Europe and China alike, the most important bilateral relationship is with the United States. Although often described as a ‘strategic triangle’, neither the Chinese impact on the transatlantic relationship nor Europe’s role in the Sino-US relationship is remotely comparable to the significance of the United States for the Sino-European relationship.Our Pakistan ChallengeNovember 19, 2007 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardPakistan is the swing state in the worldwide struggle against Islamic terrorists. Its decisive position makes Pervez Musharraf's imposition of martial law on November 3 a hard test for American foreign policy.Playing the America CardOctober 01, 2007 / Daniel TwiningWeekly StandardChina's rise in Asia and the world is one of the big stories of our time. Goldman Sachs predicts that China's economy will be bigger than America's in two decades. From Shanghai to Singapore, one hears whispers of a "new Chinese century" recalling the Sino-centric hierarchy of traditional Asia. Yet China's geopolitical ascent is creating what Mao Zedong would have termed a "contradiction": China's rising power makes the United States increasingly important to nearly every Asian nation, including China itself.
Asia’s challenge to ChinaSeptember 25, 2007 / Daniel TwiningFinancial TimesAmerican economic weakness, Europe's uncertain political and demographic future, turmoil in the Middle East and challengers to western leadership from Moscow to Tehran may signal a new moment in world politics. It is characterised by the decline of free nations whose power and principles have shaped international society for centuries and the emergence of an autocratic Chinese superpower whose seemingly unstoppable economic ascent shatters the comfortable belief that capitalist development leads to democracy. Should the liberal west brace itself for a new global "Beijing consensus" of authoritarian modernity?
The Next InterventionAugust 06, 2007 / Robert KaganWashington PostIs the United States out of the intervention business for a while? With two difficult wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a divided public, the conventional answer is that it will be a long time before any American president, Democrat or Republican, again dispatches troops into conflict overseas.
The Return of HistoryAugust 05, 2007 / Robert KaganLos Angeles TimesDespite hopes that the the world would be different after the Cold War, nationalism and ideology are back.China’s New Dictatorship DiplomacyJuly 21, 2007 / Andrew SmallForeign Affairs; New York Times; International Herald Tribune
China is often accused of supporting a string of despots, nuclear proliferators, and genocidal regimes, shielding them from international pressure and thus reversing progress on human rights and humanitarian principles. But over the last two years, Beijing has been quietly overhauling its policies toward pariah states.End of Dreams, Return of HistoryJuly 18, 2007 / Robert KaganHoover Institute Policy ReviewThe world has become normal again. The years immediately following the end of the Cold War offered a tantalizing glimpse at a new kind of international order, with nations growing together or disappearing altogether, ideological conflicts melting away, cultures intermingling through increasingly free commerce and communications.In Favour of a Selective PartnershipJuly 01, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie Berliner RepublikGermany plays a specific role for Russia and vice versa. It is apparently no coincidence that the German chancellor and the Russian President communicate in Russian and German - after all German-Russian relations have always been complex and changeable. Mutual fear and admiration, phobic defensiveness and empathetic fondness have characterized the situation on both sides - not merely in recent times, but always.
America’s Grand Design in AsiaMay 31, 2007 / Daniel TwiningWashington QuarterlyIn a dynamic Asian order featuring new centers of power, China's rise will naturally challenge Washington's ability to protect its interests in the region. In 2000, presidential candidate George W. Bush labeled China as the United States' leading strategic and military competitor. In September 2005, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick explicitly warned Beijing not to "maneuver toward a predominance of power" in Asia, suggesting that it was doing exactly that.No Wishful Thinking helps against Putin’s Power PoliticsMay 19, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichWelt am SonntagThe EU-Russia summit in Samara came to an end without any tangible results and indicates a low point in Russian-European relations. There is and will not be a new Cold War, but the peace is becoming cooler.Putin shatters the European illusionMay 18, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltThe EU-Russia Summit in Samara came to and end without tangible results. It indicates a continuing low point in Russian-European relations, which are steadily getting worse. Moscow has found itself wrapped up in its present energy power, the primary campaign of the elections in the Duma in December, and the presidential election next March. Russia is once again a presence on the world's stage and wants everyone to know. This article is available in its original German.
Germany has been celebrating Europe's 50th birthday, and itself: Hooray, we're a normal country again, with a normal foreign policy! Indeed, Germany has come a long way in this half century. And Angela Merkel has done much to reestablish it in its old role as a balancer and mediator in Europe, as well as within the transatlantic relationship.
From Iran to Israel: American Choices in IraqApril 01, 2007 / Ian LesserAfkar IdéesThis article discusses the challenges facing the US in the broader Middle East, four years after the Iraq war. It highlights the implications of a more chaotic strategic environment for the region, the risk of multiple "civil wars," and the opportunity costs with regard to the Palestinian-Israeli crisis and other issues. It was written for the French publication Afkar Idées and is written in French. The full article is available for download below:
War or PeaceMarch 27, 2007 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial Times DeutschlandGermany wants to be a "normal" country, with a "normal" foreign policy. But recent debates on the use of force in Afghanistan and on missile defence in Europe are anything but. Article in original German.
The critics were wrong when they opposed adding nations to the alliance in the 1990s, and they are still wrong. In fact, the more time that passes, the better the arguments in favor of enlargement look. There were basically three reasons for expanding NATO, and each has been proved right.
The lost leader of BelarusFebruary 09, 2007 / Robin ShepherdUnited Press InternationalIf the gods first make mad those whom they wish to destroy, then Alexander Lukashenko, the brutal autocrat in charge of Belarus, may be heading for problems. Since losing his last remaining ally in Europe in an acrimonious oil and gas dispute with Russia at the beginning of January, his behavior has become so erratic that many in the domestic opposition have begun to speculate he is losing control of his faculties. NATO must go global to have a meaningful purposeFebruary 06, 2007 / Robin ShepherdFinancial TimesWhen western security experts gather this weekend in Munich to discuss the future of Nato at their annual security conference, they will be considering an Atlantic alliance that faces two rather stark choices: re-reinvent itself to handle the threats of a new century, or watch itself drift slowly into strategic marginalisation.Why We Need A New Transatlantic OstpolitikFebruary 01, 2007 / Robin ShepherdDie ZeitIt is time for a debate across the Atlantic about a new Eastern policy. The Russia we face today is a different one than what we hoped for. EU and NATO policy toward an enlarged Europe's new neighborhood needs to be rethought. And the United States and Europe need to get their act together on energy policy. With leadership changes coming up in Paris, London and Washington, the time is ripe to get out our laptops and debate the framework for a new policy. Europe in the Era of GazpromJanuary 12, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDer TagesspiegelThe EU-Commission's "Strategic Energy Report" contains many feasible suggestions for improving competition conditions within the European energy market, promoting environmental protection, as well as developing renewable energy. These objectives provide, without a doubt, indispensable elements of a common European energy policy considered essential in order to protect the survival of the human race on our planet.
Strong response to Putin’s Russia overdueJanuary 09, 2007 / Robin ShepherdFinancial TimesAs Russia and Belarus sought to blame each other on Monday over the suspension of oil supplies through the northern leg of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Poland and Germany, Europe might well have paused to take stock of its own share of responsibility for the latest threat to its energy security.
Georgia outshines Ukraine at recent NATO summit in RigaDecember 20, 2006 / Taras KuzioKyiv PostFollowing NATO's Riga summit, Georgia looks set to speed up its drive to join NATO, while Ukraine's position continues to be ambivalent. The US and NATO's support for Georgian membership is unequivocal, while they are having difficulty in formulating a clear strategy to Ukraine since Yankovych returned to government.The New Great Game: Why the Bush administration has embraced IndiaDecember 20, 2006 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardThree recent events illuminate the contours and fault lines of Asia's emerging strategic landscape, amid the lengthening shadows cast by China's growing power.Gesucht: Magischer BundNovember 25, 2006 / Constanze StelzenmuellerDie ZEITAt this year's NATO Summit in Riga, coalition partners are debating how to best modernize NATO, but it is a moot question, especially when coalition partners are stumbling in the military campaign in Afghanistan. This article is in written in German.
Russian Subversion in the CrimeaNovember 03, 2006 / Taras KuzioJane's Intelligence DigestRussia's subversive tactics in supporting separatism among ethnic Russians in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine are long standing, and Kiev's ability to launch counter-measures are hampered.The Whirlwind Angie-George WaltzNovember 01, 2006 / Taras KuzioAtlanticChancellor Angela Merkel and President George W. Bush seem to get along splendidly. But the German public remains critical of the U.S., and will be watching closely to see who is leading whom.Cowboy Nation: Against the myth of American innocenceOctober 23, 2006 / Robert KaganThe New RepublicThese days, we are having a national debate over the direction of foreign policy. Beyond the obvious difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is a broader sense that our nation has gone astray.
Putin’s Russia fails its own testOctober 20, 2006 / Robin ShepherdInternational Herald TribuneFor entirely understandable reasons, recent events in Russia have prompted a tidal wave of criticism against President Vladimir Putin's style of government.Germany’s Russia Policy Following the Murder of Anna PolitkovskayaOctober 16, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDziennikPresident Putin's recent visit to Germany was overshadowed by the murder of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya of just a few days before. In the subsequent press conference, after only a few opening remarks, Chancellor Merkel demanded an explanation for the killing. Putin's cynical assertion that the murderous act damaged Russia more than the supposedly unimportant work of the journalist horrified the German media. At state visits in Dresden and Munich, German protesters waved banners depicting President Putin as a murderer.
A Question of Destiny in the 21st CenturyJuly 14, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltThe main topic of the G8 summit in St. Petersburg will be the question of energy security. How can the peaceful worldwide distribution of nonrenewable energy resources, such as oil and natural gas, be secured? The answer to this question will decisively shape the global order of the 21st century. (In original German and English translation)Slovakia sets extremist challenge for EuropeJuly 07, 2006 / Robin ShepherdThe Financial TimesThe European Union was presented with another serious challenge to its ability to contain hardline nationalism this week with the inclusion in the government of new member state Slovakia of a key party with rabidly xenophobic views and a nostalgic attitude to that country's pro-Nazi wartime government.Abbas’s Palestinian referendum offers only false hopeJune 19, 2006 / Robin ShepherdThe Financial TimesGood news from the Palestinian territories is a rarecommodity, so rare that there is an understandable tendency to overstate its significance when it comes.Russia’s Shadow EmpireMay 11, 2006 / Ana Palacio, Daniel TwiningThe Washington PostSince 2003, democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia have dealt strategic blows to the ambition of Russia's leaders to reconstitute the former Soviet empire by retaining political and military suzerainty over their weaker neighbors. But Russia's imperial pretensions along its periphery linger.The reform of the IMF: the tree which hides the forestMay 09, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) faces an identity crisis. Many member governments feel that the IMF is not responsive to their needs and that they lack the voice and vote, in other words, the influence, to bring about the institution.Next Step for NATOMarch 14, 2006 / Richard HolbrookeThe Washington PostIn the new global security environment, NATO has to address the gravest threats to its members’ collective security.Contain Iran: Admit Israel to NATOFebruary 21, 2006 / Richard HolbrookeThe Washington PostThe choice of how to respond to Iran’s growing threat to the West in general and Israel in particular is not an easy one.Looking for a Stability Pact for the Southern CaucususFebruary 09, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichNeue Züricher ZeitungGermany is heavily engaged in Georgia. At the same time, Germany does not have a comprehensive foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus.Putin’s Power PoliticsJanuary 16, 2006 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly Standard Volume 011, Issue 17IN A WORLD OF AMERICAN preponderance, European integration, and Asian ascent, it is sometimes hard to take Russia seriously as a great power.Becoming sober again; To Romanticize or Destruct: Germany has yet to find a realistic relationship with RussiaJanuary 15, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDer TagesspiegelDuring centuries of a shared past with a large variety of ties, Germans have sometimes had romanticized notions of Russia as a mythical place spared from modernity’s troubles. Instead of this misplaced German sentimentality, Germany should act upon sobriety, common sense, and rationality when dealing with Russia.Energy by all meansDecember 28, 2005 / Jörg HimmelreichDer TagesspiegelGerhard Schröder takes a job on Gazprom's Baltic pipeline — this news raises an ethics question for retired politicians. It also raises another, more important, question: does this pipeline really serve Germany’s geopolitical interests?
A Sensational CoupNovember 23, 2005 / Jörg HimmelreichFinancial Times DeutschlandInstead of enlarging the Security Council, EU members should agree on two instead of three non-permanent seats. The open seat could be assigned to the group of Asia and Africa, showing Europe’s willingness for just representation. Without any additional changes to the UN Charta necessary, this proposition could be more easily adopted than other reform proposals.Base PoliticsNovember 01, 2005 / Alexander CooleyForeign Affairs Volume 84 No. 6