Follow GMF
GMF Blog
On Defense, France Bites the Bullet, But Avoids Strategic Insolvency May 7, 2013
Iceland’s Recovery Saga Presents Opportunities for Brussels, Washington—and Beijing May 6, 2013
Which Way Forward for Europe’s Hybrid Regimes? May 2, 2013
The Arab Revolts and the Liberal Order May 2, 2013
Events
GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
News & Analysis Archive
A Pakistani Election PrimerMay 09, 2013 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Pakistan's election is in fact taking place amid a low-grade civil war in which domestic terrorists are successfully targeting the political parties with the most liberal vision for the country's future. These parties are effectively unable to campaign, with the result that turnout of their supporters will be dramatically suppressed.The Great Sino-Indian Alpine Tent Party of 2013May 09, 2013 / Dhruva JaishankarForeign Policy
China's latest border squabble with India might seem trivial, but the consequences could set Asia on edge. Asia’s Real Challenge: China’s “Potemkin” RiseMay 06, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
Low-quality growth has undermined China’s social fabric and individual welfare. It also makes China look far stronger on paper than in reality.The Dangerous Domestic Politics of U.S.-ChinaMay 03, 2013 / Daniel TwiningFortune magazine
The domestic political frictions produced by the bilateral relationship are, like the tensions between the established power and its rising challenger, intensifying.Geostrategic Annual ReviewApril 30, 2013 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLe Monde
In Le Monde’s annual issue on the state of the world, Bilan Géostratégie 2013, GMF's Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer argues that economic & geopolitical trends are reshaping transatlantic cooperation.Can China Handle the Crises to Come?April 26, 2013 / Minxin PeiFortune magazine
Xi Jinping's legacy will not depend on whether he saved more lives in Lushan or contained the H7N9 bird flu, but on whether he can make China more open, democratic, and livable than it is today.Whose Pacific Century? The 113th Congress and AsiaApril 22, 2013 / Daniel Twining, Edward GresserThe National Bureau of Asian Research
This report examines the issues in Asia that the 113th Congress will confront—from the pace and scale of military drawdown in Afghanistan to an increasingly dangerous North Korea.Daniel Kliman Discusses Kerry’s Trip to South KoreaApril 18, 2013 / Daniel M. KlimanCTV News
U.S. Secretary of State in South Korea amid tensions. View the CTV News clip here. China’s Dream WorldApril 16, 2013 / Minxin PeiProject Syndicate
Xi may still be enjoying a honeymoon with the Chinese public, but it is likely to be a short one. His predecessors had ten years to carry out real reforms and accomplished little.Who Will Lead Afghanistan after Karzai?April 04, 2013 / Javid AhmadWall Street Journal
As Hamid Karzai’s Afghan presidency enters its final year, it’s not too early to consider the question of who will become his successor.
One Soviet Leader China Could Emulate…and It’s Not GorbachevApril 04, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
The Andropov model seems to be an attractive option to China’s leaders. It won’t be long before they realize that it is a road to nowhere.Rogue State Rollback on the Korean Peninsula?April 02, 2013 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
North Korea's recent saber-rattling raises troubling new questions about the bipartisan failure of American policy to limit Pyongyang's armed recklessness and the threat to the U.S. and our allies.China and Russia: Best Frenemies Forever?March 28, 2013 / Minxin PeiFORTUNE
China and Russia are still deeply wary of each other. The Xi-Putin play-date was to show Washington it should watch its back.U.S. Trade Can Help India ReformMarch 26, 2013 / Daniel TwiningThe Wall Street Journal
Delhi will be quicker to liberalize if it knows that cheap U.S. gas exports are waiting on the other side.BRICS Pose No Challenge to Global OrderMarch 25, 2013 / Daniel M. KlimanWorld Politics Review
On March 26, the leaders of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa will gather in Durban, South Africa, for the BRICS grouping’s fifth summit.The Huge Cost of India’s Discrimination Against WomenMarch 18, 2013 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Atlantic
Modern India somehow manages to be, at the same time, the land of Indira Gandhi and Mother Theresa and of child brides and dowry deaths.China’s New Leaders: Don’t Get Your Hopes UpMarch 08, 2013 / Minxin PeiFORTUNE
The only good news coming from the pending leadership changes is the near-certainty of the end of China's one-child policy.Gentle GiantMarch 06, 2013 / Dhruva JaishankarForeign Policy
Given its enormous size, India's military has relatively little political or bureaucratic clout -- particularly when compared to China -- and consequently less say in resource allocations. The Karzai We NeedFebruary 21, 2013 / Mark R. JacobsonCNN
Afghanistan needs Karzai the statesman: the Karzai who can work with both the international community and the Afghan people, not just play one against the other. China’s Income Gap Solution: Too Little, Too Late?February 20, 2013 / Minxin PeiFORTUNE
Few would disagree that reducing China's disturbingly high level of income inequality is one of the most difficult but critical challenges facing the nation's new leadership.
Five Ways China Could Become a DemocracyFebruary 13, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
Few have seriously thought about the probability and the various plausible scenarios of a regime transition in China -- until now.Europe: The Pacific, Atlantic, and Arctic Offer Three New FrontiersFebruary 12, 2013 / Bruno LétéEuropean Global Strategy
By evolving clearer approaches to these new frontiers, Europe would send a reassuring signal to the rest of the world that it remains a global player.Picking Up From Clinton, Kerry Should Focus on AsiaFebruary 04, 2013 / Dhruva JaishankarIndia America TodayAs John Kerry assumes the role of Secretary of State, Clinton’s track record in Asia offers some useful guidance. The Taiwan LinchpinFebruary 01, 2013 / Daniel TwiningPolicy Review
An old ally is key to the U.S. position in AsiaChina’s Environment: An Economic Death SentenceJanuary 28, 2013 / Minxin PeiFortune.com
Given decades of environmental neglect and China's heavy reliance on coal, it would be difficult to produce a dramatic improvement quickly.America Rediscovers the AtlanticJanuary 28, 2013 / Ian LesserAspenia
Most Europeans will be pleased with the re-election of President Obama after a campaign that many in Europe never realized was such a close run thing. Would China Block Korean Unification?January 27, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
Instead of obstructing Korean reunification, Beijing must embrace it and place its chips on the side of Seoul. Afghanistan’s Special Forces Are A Bastion of HopeJanuary 25, 2013 / Javid AhmadForeign Policy
Responsibly preparing to deter many of the threats Afghanistan will face after 2014 requires more Afghan Special Forces.Engaging WiselyJanuary 16, 2013 / Dhruva Jaishankarwww.forceindia.net
Strategic autonomy has served India’s foreign policy well till now.The Tocqueville ParadoxJanuary 11, 2013 / Minxin PeiThe Indian Express
China has found itself in a paradox as the softening of repression is more likely to make the existing form of repression even less tolerable.EU should expand its Iran policyJanuary 10, 2013 / Fabrizio TassinariEuropean Voice
EU needs to broaden its approach to Iran so that it goes beyond imposing sanction on the nation.Minxin Pei: China’s Liberals Test Xi JinpingJanuary 09, 2013 / Minxin PeiWall Street Journal
The mini-crisis sparked by protest against ham-fisted censorship at a Chinese newspaper seems to have been temporarily defused. Asia’s Pivotal PowerDecember 28, 2012 / Daniel Twining, Richard FontaineWall Street Journal
Japan has world-class capabilities that make it a serious player in the global balance of power.Has Pakistan’s Afghan Policy Really Shifted?December 21, 2012 / Daniel Twining, Javid AhmadForeign Policy
There are reasons to believe that any shift in Pakistan's Afghanistan policy is short-term and tactical.Look East, Act East: transatlantic agendas in the Asia PacificDecember 19, 2012 / Peter Sparding, Andrew SmallEUISS
Latest policy brief by GMF Fellows details transatlantic agendas in the region.The Bullies of Beijing: China’s Image ProblemDecember 15, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
Military and political actions by the Chinese government have strained diplomatic relations with its neighbors. Regime Change in China?December 13, 2012 / Minxin PeiProject Syndicate
While the future of China is unpredictable, the durability of its post-totalitarian regime can be estimated with some confidence.
Global Trends 2030: Scenarios for Asia’s strategic futureDecember 11, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
What kind of role Asia will play in the world, and how it will relate to the United States and other Western powers, in turn will be determined by what form of regional order is operative in 2030. Global Trends 2030: Pathways for Asia’s Strategic FutureDecember 10, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Today the U.S. National Intelligence Council releases its Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worldsreport, authored by the NIC's resident thought leader and global futurist par excellence, Mat Burrows. Several of us in the Shadow Government stable contributed to the report in various ways over the past few years of its development .U.S. has work cut out to make sure Afghan forces are combat readyDecember 10, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.com
US has a challenging task as it prepares Afghan security forces for 2014 drawdown.Global Swing States and European StrategyNovember 30, 2012 / Daniel M. Kliman, Richard Fontaine European Global Strategy
A new European Global Strategy must account for one of the most important geopolitical trends of the early 21st century: the growing influence of emerging market democracies in world affairs. Four rising powers – Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey – should receive special focus, for together they are key to adapting and renewing today’s international order.A World RecastNovember 30, 2012 / Simon SerfatyRowman and Littlefield
New book by GMF’s Simon Serfaty argues Western era’s passing is exaggerated as an irreversible decline relative to an irresistible rise of other powers.Afghan Security Returns to the GrassrootsNovember 30, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe National Interest
Influential village and tribal leaders still command great legitimacy and act as interlocutors between the government and the local people.From Hu to XiNovember 28, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndian Express
Now that the Communist Party of China has completed its once-in-a-decade transfer of power, has it overcome the fatal flaws that befall authoritarian regimes?China’s Overreach, America’s OpportunityNovember 21, 2012 / Daniel TwiningAmerican Foreign Policy Council
Growing wariness of Chinese power and penetration now being evidenced in Southeast Asian states has created considerable possibilities for American policy.Return of the WarlordsNovember 15, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Afghanistan's disintegration after 2014 would negate a national security record under President Obama that Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden might wish to run on in 2016. Can Obama Get Afghanistan Right in Second Term?November 14, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.com
Kabul is once again vying for Washington’s attention, now that the U.S. presidential elections are over.The U.S.-China ResetNovember 14, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe New York Times 
China needs a new approach to stabilize the deteriorating security relationship with the United States.A Great Game Of Spear And ShieldNovember 08, 2012 / Daniel TwiningOutlook
A strengthening of America's ties with India will trigger shifts in the power paradigm in the age of China.
Untapped Trilateralism: Common Economic and Security Interests of the EU, the US and ChinaNovember 08, 2012 / Andrew SmallEUECRAN
Ties between the EU, China, and the U.S. are more interlinked than ever but a joint collaborative response remains elusive.Beijing fakes the good fight against its own corruptionNovember 05, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe National 
China is paying a huge price for its kleptocracy. Corruption has made its economy less efficient and more risky, inequality has worsened and the regime's legitimacy has dived.Why Beijing prefers ObamaNovember 05, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndia Express
The tight U.S. presidential race has raised anxieties around about the future of American foreign policy. Nowhere is the level of uncertainty and fear higher than in Beijing.Securing the Durand Line could bring peace to AfghanistanNovember 04, 2012 / Javid AhmadFinancial Times
The best way to end the countless challenges on both sides of Afghanistan's frontier is to insist on demarcating the Durand Line and to govern it effectively. A Tale of Two SuperpowersNovember 04, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Deccan Chronicle
The transparency and participatory nature of the U.S. presidential elections is a critical aspect of comprehensive national power that Beijing – in its current state – will always find wanting.China’s Troubled BourbonsOctober 31, 2012 / Minxin PeiProject Syndicate
Sometimes the books that a country’s top leaders read can reveal a lot about what they are thinking.Roads to MandalayOctober 31, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
An integrated Southeast Asia is in India’s interestsDemocracy can Make China a Great PowerOctober 29, 2012 / Daniel TwiningFinancial Times
As China undergoes its once-a-decade political transition, Chinese and westerners alike wonder whether its new leaders will put the country on a path to openness and transparency. This is morally desirable. Sorry World: What Happens in Beijing, WON’T Stay in BeijingOctober 22, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
While many have feared its rise, a weaker China struggling with economic and political challenges at home may present an even greater challenge.1962′s Other Crisis: India and China go to WarOctober 22, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Diplomat
Despite the importance of Sino-Indian ties for the United States and other regional and global powers, that relationship is prone to much misinterpretation.Avoiding Another Afghan Civil WarOctober 22, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe Daily Beast
Once Washington emerges from the election cycle, it must revisit its Afghan war policy and develop contingencies for a post-2014 Afghanistan. Choose Your Own Adventure for Policy WonksOctober 19, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonForeign Policy
Gaming out a military strike on Iran.Past Choppy WatersOctober 15, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Indian Express
Beijing and Tokyo return to positions of pragmatism over the East China SeaIn Afghanistan, deadly ignoranceOctober 08, 2012 / Javid AhmadWashington Post
In Afghanistan, cultural cluelessness can be deadly. China’s Afghan MomentOctober 04, 2012 / Andrew SmallForeign Policy
The looming U.S. drawdown gives China a chance to move into Afghanistan.Is China’s Communist Party Doomed?October 01, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
Could Beijing's ruling elite succumb to the same fate as those in the former Soviet Union? Perhaps.Beijing’s Bargain of a DecadeOctober 01, 2012 / Minxin PeiWall Street Journal
The twin announcements coming out of Beijing last Friday may strike most as an incongruous pair. Don’t give up on IndiaSeptember 21, 2012 / Daniel Twining, Richard FontaineThe Washington Post
India has represented Washington’s major strategic bet in Asia. Was this bet misguided?
Xi Jinping’s Reappearance Points to Leadership WoesSeptember 18, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe National 
The presumptive next leader of China, has resurfaced after nearly two weeks out of public sight. What will the implications be for Chinese politics?Tokyo and Beijing must step back from the brinkSeptember 18, 2012 / Minxin PeiFinancial Times
With their economies struggling and domestic politics in disarray, the last thing leaders in China and Japan need now is a foreign policy crisis. Eleven Years After 9/11, Afghanistan Still MattersSeptember 11, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe New York Times 
The war in Afghanistan has become largely invisible in Washington.The silence is particularly noticeable on the presidential campaign trail.Are Chinese Banks Hiding “The Mother of All Debt Bombs”?September 10, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
China's massive bank financed stimulus was intended to keep the economy moving. It may instead lead to economic disaster.
China’s Trust ProblemSeptember 03, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndian Express
Beijing’s “peaceful rise” or “peaceful development” slogan has lost its appeal, if not credibility.Cultural sensitivity key to U.S. role in AfghanistanAugust 31, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.com
Recent green-on-blue attacks have severely eroded NATO’s trust in its local partners and they present a major challenge to the U.S. exit strategy.Everything You Think You Know About China Is WrongAugust 29, 2012 / Minxin PeiForeign Policy 
Are we obsessing about its rise when we should be worried about its fall? Andrew Small Discusses China On Wikistrat’s “Ask a Senior Analyst”August 28, 2012 / Andrew SmallWikistrat.com 
Transatlantic Fellow Andrew Small engaged in a 24-hour Q&A with Wikistrat Facebook followers to answer questions on a number of international issues including China-Pakistan relations, China's role in a post-2014 Afghanistan, China's military clout, and the possibility of the RMB displacing the dollar as the dominant reserve currency.China in the Eye of the BeholderAugust 27, 2012 / Minxin PeiProject Syndicate
One of the most glaring, if unremarked, oddities concerning China nowadays is how perceptions of its leaders diverge depending on the observer. Why civil servants hold the key to Afghan prosperityAugust 17, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN
Kabul's struggle to find competent replacements following the ouster of Karzai's two prominent ministers highlights deeper problems with Afghan politics that reveal the absence of Afghan civil service.Bleak Prospects for No-Fly Zone as Proxy War Grips SyriaAugust 14, 2012 / Ian LesserDeutsche Welle
GMF's Ian Lesser talks to Deutsche Welle about possible military action to stem the violence in Syria as the conflict enters its 18th month in the Middle East nation.Another Round of PokerAugust 14, 2012 / Nicholas SiegelThe European
As tensions rise again over Iran's nuclear program, Washington and Brussels policymakers should keep several things in mind.
Where Winning is EverythingAugust 09, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndian Express
Winning Olympic medals, like clocking the speed of economic growth, adds gloss to the image of the ruling Chinese Communist Party.Superpower Denied? Why China’s ‘Rise’ May Have Already PeakedAugust 09, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
How a toxic mix of economic, demographic, environmental, political, and international challenges could end China's ascent.What China’s Leaders Fear MostJuly 30, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
How the powerful lose power and what happens to them afterwards can tell us a great deal about the nature of the political regime in which they thrive and perish.Afghanistan Needs Less Foreign AidJuly 27, 2012 / Javid AhmadWorld Politics Review
Kabul’s dangerous complacency can be reined in by weeding out the underlying problem: reducing foreign aid and engaging Kabul in structural reforms.Party and the PatriotJuly 21, 2012 / Minxin PeiIndian Express
It has become clear that the relationship between nationalism and democracy is most likely determined by a specific national context, but is Chinese nationalism bad for democracy?
The Chinese AwakeningJuly 20, 2012 / Minxin PeiWall Street Journal Asia
Like a share listed on an exchange, the world's perception of China fluctuates as foreigners go from bullish to bearish. One gauge of how the country's image is faring is the latest crop of China books. Why Making China ‘The Boogeyman’ Won’t WorkJuly 17, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe Diplomat
These days it is rare to see Congressional Republicans and Democrats unified on anything, much less speak with one voice. But when they do, the result is not necessarily good.
Beijing Plays Divide and Conquer to Win in South China SeaJuly 17, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe National
In the long-simmering South China Sea dispute, the territorial argument is becoming a flashpoint for armed conflict and an increasingly sharp-elbowed strategic tussle between the U.S. and China.
Moving Too Fast on Burma: Obama Breaks with Aung San Suu KyiJuly 16, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The Obama administration's decision to lift the U.S. investment ban on Burma is the first time Washington has publicly broken with the country's democratic opposition since Burma's fragile but consequential political opening began several years ago.
U.S. Is Moving Too Fast on BurmaJuly 15, 2012 / Michael J. Green, Daniel TwiningWashington Post
Lifting elements of the Burma investment ban is a sensible part of U.S. strategy, but it must create greater economic and political space outside the regime's control.
Survival Guide for One-Party RegimesJuly 10, 2012 / Minxin PeiSouth China Morning Post
The return of the PRI to power through a democratic process should encourage the Chinese Communist Party to think outside the box and start a process of political transformation.
Afghanistan’s Political Crisis: A Short-term solutionJuly 10, 2012 / Javid AhmadForeign Policy
Politics in Afghanistan is broken, just as the country finds itself juggling multiple political and security challenges. Among the most pressing is ensuring a smooth political transition of power by 2014. Unfortunately, with Kabul torn apart by infighting and factionalism, the prospects of succeeding are bleak. In the absence of alternative mechanisms, one way of commanding greater political legitimacy would be the convening of a Loya Jirga.
The End Of China’s Economic MiracleJuly 09, 2012 / Minxin PeiDaily Beast
Twenty years ago, Japan experienced the humiliation of going from world economic champ to chump within a few years of its financial meltdown. Today it seems to be China’s turn.
Advantage India: Why China Will Lose the Contest for Global InfluenceJuly 02, 2012 / Daniel M. KlimanGlobalAsia
Many see China’s authoritarian government as an asset in its rise up the economic ladder, but India’s more open and transparent democracy gives it the edge when it comes to becoming a global power, writes Daniel M. Kliman.
What Next in a post-Doha World? – Lessons from EU, U.S., and Chinese Trade Policy StrategiesJune 27, 2012 / David Kleimann, Joe Guinan, Andrew SmallGlobal Governance Programme
With the WTO hamstrung and the Doha Round dead in all but name, the future directions of international trade and investment liberalisation will be largely determined by the policy strategies and initiatives of the world’s economic superpowers.
Pakistan Collapsing from WithinJune 27, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN
Recent developments in Islamabad signify the deep rift between Pakistan's different internal institutions - civilian government, the powerful military, the increasingly active judiciary, and the many opposition groups - each juggling varied and often deeply conflicting agendas. The cost of this power struggle, however, seems to be given little consideration by the players involved.
Why Indonesia is a global swing stateJune 15, 2012 / Daniel M. Kliman
As a global swing state, Indonesia must choose between its focus on its own internal development or to go global and work with the United States, Europe, Japan, and others to adapt and renew today’s international order.
Why the World Needs AmericaJune 14, 2012 / Kati SuominenGlobal Trends 2030
The global economic order – the post-war framework of global governance built on rules-based institutions and free and open markets – is largely America’s creation. It has been the midwife of growth and globalization that have produced prosperity around the world.
The Mexico challengeJune 12, 2012 / Daniel M. KlimanThe Indian Express
When the G-20 meets at Los Cabos, Mexico, this month, India will share the limelight with the world’s leading developed and emerging market economies. In the G-20 and beyond, India stands at a foreign policy crossroads.
China: The Invisible Dragon in the RoomJune 06, 2012 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
At last weekend’s Shangri-La Dialogue, China did much to bear out James Joyce’s maxim that absence is the highest form of presence. In deciding not to send their defense minister and offering only an elliptical justification, China made itself the subject of even greater speculation and theorizing than usual.
The Liberal Order and the Chinese PublicJune 05, 2012 / Andrew SmallGlobal Trends 2030
In thinking about which powers will sustain – or threaten – the liberal order, China is typically written off as a spoiler. But as China’s public assumes greater influence over its foreign policy in the years ahead, this should not be taken for granted.
Parallel Institutions as a Challenge to the Liberal OrderJune 04, 2012 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffGT2030.com
One of the dangers on the road to a polycentric world is the emergence of parallel institutions of global governance. The planned BRICS Development Bank is the most prominent example. The problem is: a development bank of this kind already exists. It is called the World Bank.
China’s Challenge to the Liberal Order, India’s Attraction to It, and the Possibilities for Western Revitalization in Light of the Global Embrace of Democratic NormsMay 29, 2012 / Stephen Szabo
The growing role of China is clearly the most significant challenge to the liberal international order to emerge since the shaping of the Bretton Woods institutions.
The Rise of the Rest and the Return of Spheres of InfluenceMay 28, 2012 / Minxin PeiGT2030.com
The question being asked most often today is whether rising powers, such as India, China, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, will help maintain the post-WWII liberal order by contributing to its costly maintenance.This may not be the right question to answer.
What Fate for Liberal Order in a Post-Western World?May 27, 2012 / Daniel TwiningGT2030.com
Over the next two decades, the relative power of major international actors will shift markedly. The NIC's draft Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds maps out three broad scenarios for how will the rise of the rest impact the international system.
GMF’s de Hoop Scheffer on implications of France’s withdrawal from AfghanistanMay 24, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferAtlantico
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer wrote an article in French for the journal, Atlantico. The article is on NATO, Afghanistan and transatlantic relations and addresses the strategic and transatlantic implications of France’s decision to withdraw combat troops from Afghanistan by the end of 2012 and the contradictions of NATO’s strategy for Afghanistan.Election 2014: Afghanistan’s Chance to Get it Right?May 10, 2012 / Javid AhmadForeign Policy
At a time when the U.S. is in need of widespread public support on the Afghan mission, the administration's tone on Afghan governance is feeble.
The Lid Cracks Open on Beijing’s Black BoxMay 09, 2012 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Real Clear World
After a long period of stasis, Chinese politics have entered a dramatic new phase. While no one expects major change to arrive quickly, the previous sense of inevitability about China’s internal trajectory is beginning to give way to growing unpredictability. For a long time, the animating China challenge for policymakers in the United States and Europe had been the integration of a rapidly rising power into the global economic and security order. Now they will need to do that while navigating a nation in political transition.Ten Commandments of Camp 14May 05, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Indian Express
The tragedy is that the plight of political prisoners in North Korea has received remarkably little attention abroad. They do not feature on the agendas of any bilateral or multilateral diplomatic dialogues with Pyongyang and there is little international activism in their support.
India & South Korea: The Promise of PartnershipMay 04, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarKorea Economic Institute
Both countries are also considered key partners of the United States in the years to come, but maintain complex relations with China marked by growing economic interdependence and intensifying security concerns.
China, the Euro Crisis and Transatlantic CooperationMay 02, 2012 / Andrew Small
In this testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Andrew Small explains that, despite the euro crisis, the European Union has been toughening up its stance in its economic relationship with China. For the United States, the opportunities to coordinate with the EU on economic policy responses loom larger than the risks that Europe’s need for Chinese money will act as a constraint.
U.S. Must Focus on Upcoming Leadership Change in AfghanistanMay 02, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe Christian Science Monitor
When Obama made his secret visit to Afghanistan yesterday, he emphasized America's security role. The US needs to focus on helping Afghanistan build its political and governing capabilities. The Afghan presidential election looms with no plan for a smooth transition of power.
Reaffirming Tokyo’s Leader in WashingtonMay 01, 2012 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post
Bold and steady political leadership is necessary to set Japan to on the right course and to forge cooperation on key U.S. economic and security interests.
U.S. Has Few Good Options on Afghan Peace Ahead of NATO SummitApril 27, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe Daily Beast
The U.S. has two options for a political solution before withdrawing from Afghanistan. As the Chicago NATO summit approaches, can a deal be found via Pakistan?
Was the U.S.-India relationship oversold?April 26, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Today's Financial Times charges that U.S.-India relations are "wilting" in light of various policy spats between the two countries that belie the mutual optimism of 2008. These claims need to be put in perspective.
Racing the ClockApril 23, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
Tokyo needs to move fast in its quest to join talks on the Trans-Pacific Partnership free-trade agreement.
Ignoring North KoreaApril 19, 2012 / Amy Studdart, Joshua W. WalkerThe Diplomat
U.S.-Europe-Asia: The New Strategic TriangleApril 16, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Despite claims that the U.S. "pivot" to Asia means a move away from Europe, there are enormous opportunities for the Atlantic allies to work together in a structured, systematic way in rising Asia on key issues like Burma, China, institution building and security.
Ian Lesser: Turkey Plays Critical Role Between East and West on Syria, IranApril 12, 2012 / Ian LesserFrance 24
Ian Lesser joins France24's "The Interview" to discuss Turkey's pivotal role in the Middle East, including the Syria crisis and Iran.U.S.-Afghan CodependenceMarch 28, 2012 / Javid AhmadNational Interest
A cascade of recent incidents and missteps, including the tragic killing of sixteen sleeping Afghan villagers by a U.S. soldier in Kandahar and the burning of Korans at the Bagram air base, has riled many and escalated tensions between the United States and Afghanistan.
The Chinese Military’s Great Leap ForwardMarch 07, 2012 / Daniel TwiningTransatlantic Take
China’s announcement of a more than 11 percent increase in declared military spending — following two full decades of double-digit increases — raises several uncomfortable questions for Asia and the West.
U.S. Must Maintain Trust with AfghansMarch 01, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonCNN Blog
The burning of Qurans by seemingly unwitting NATO forces is one of the most disturbing chapters in the struggle to bring peace to Afghanistan.
Japan’s Tough CallFebruary 24, 2012 / Bruce Stokes
Washington wants Tokyo to be part of a massive pan-Pacific trade accord, but vital industries in both countries stand in the way.
Fresh StartFebruary 16, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
The White House’s new trade enforcement center offers a chance to set firm guidelines in U.S.-China relations.
A China policy primer for Xi Jinping’s visitFebruary 14, 2012 / Daniel Twining
In Washington's internal debates over China policy, several schools of thought are vying for primacy. America's Sinologists should have a little more confidence that the United States can compete with China, not only in the contest for power but in the contest of ideas.
The forces behind Dassault’s coupFebruary 10, 2012 / Dhruva Jaishankar, Sarah RaineThe Indian Express
India’s multi-role combat aircraft (MMRCA) competition recently announced that India will now enter into exclusive negotiations with French contractor Dassault for its Rafale. This is a major blow for the other major contender, the Eurofighter Typhoon, the product of a consortium of the major aerospace companies of four partner nations: Germany, UK, Italy, and Spain.
Can the Afghan economy be saved?February 03, 2012 / Javid Ahmad, Louise LangebyForeign Policy Magazine
Afghanistan is in shambles. With all attention on security concerns, the economy has been left to flounder. But there is long-term potential
in a New Silk Road strategy.
From the euro to Iran, the world is about to intrude on the nation’s slumber. And no one—the voters or the media—seems to care.
Taiwan’s Election and the Future of the U.S.-Taiwan Relationship: No End to the AffairJanuary 23, 2012 / Daniel TwiningNational Bureau of Asian Research
Despite fears of a strategic crisis in Asia, Taiwan’s presidential elections exemplified the normalcy of its democratic process.
The Last Kim of Pyongyang?January 19, 2012 / Daniel M. KlimanForeign Policy Magazine
It's not ridiculous to think that North Korea could take a page from Myanmar and make a shocking U-turn toward democracy.
EU Could Benefit from US’s Pacific focusJanuary 19, 2012 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice
Last year was a big year for US trade policy and 2012 could be more active still.
(Why) Should America Abandon Taiwan?January 10, 2012 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
A gathering debate is underway in Washington over whether Taiwan is a spoiler, rather than a partner, in America's Asia strategy as President Obama continues the efforts of Presidents Bush and Clinton to "pivot" towards the region.
After Iraq, a New PragmatismJanuary 09, 2012 / Nicholas SiegelThe European
The Iraq War marked the end of America’s unipolar moment, and has led to a new pragmatism in U.S. foreign policy. Going forward the United States military will need to be smaller, leaner, and smarter.
Andrew Small on China’s Role in AfghanistanJanuary 03, 2012 / Andrew SmallRÆSON
GMF Transatlatic Fellow Andrew Small discussed China's role in neighboring Afghanistan with the Danish political news magazine RÆSON.
North Korea: A New Kim on the BlockDecember 21, 2011 / Amy StuddartTransatlantic Take
Despite tensions between Washington and Beijing, the primary U.S. concern in North Korea — containing Pyongyang’s nuclear proliferation and aggressive behavior — was not fundamentally at odds with that of the Chinese, which was to hold the regime together. There was too much at stake, and too few incentives, to do much more.That confluence was never more than a short-term arrangement, however, and it has just been terminated with the death of North Korea’s ruler Kim Jong-Il. Graveyard of EmpiricismDecember 13, 2011 / Javid Ahmad, Dhruva JaishankarForeign Policy Magazine
The current round of the Afghanistan debate is riddled with mischaracterizations. While the Cold War produced a cohort of Soviet specialists, the war in Afghanistan has failed to produce sufficient regional expertise in the United States.
Wishful Mud-SlingingDecember 02, 2011 / Dhruva Jaishankar, Alina InayehIndian Express
Unlike other setbacks, the November 26 NATO assault on Pakistani soldiers that left 26 dead may have larger and irreversable consequences for the U.S. and NATO Allies....
A Strong Case to Drop India Uranium BanDecember 02, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Interpreter
It should be no surprise that New Delhi would welcome an Australian decision to export uranium to India. Isolating India on nuclear matters proved a major — and some might say unnecessary — hurdle for US-India relations.
Burma’s Opening and the Balance of Values in AsiaDecember 02, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
One of the best things U.S. policy in Asia can do is encourage democratic transition and consolidation in the region, creating political bulwarks against threats to the existing balance of power - which is also, in important respects, a balance of values.Dizzy yet? The pros and cons of the Asia ‘pivot’November 22, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The President has finished up a grueling trip to the Asia-Pacific region and can generally feel good about what he accomplished. Like everything this President does, however, the trip was very heavy on political spin.
Here Comes the SunNovember 17, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
The new trade talks with Japan matter. They're one of the best ways to deal with China....
Rocky Road to DamascusNovember 16, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
No country is ever immune to charges of double standards in its foreign policy, and the Arab Awakening has exposed many contradictions in rhetoric and and behaviour....
Bonn and Beyond: Afghanistan’s Uncertain FutureNovember 14, 2011 / Javid AhmadForeign Policy Magazine
While there is no silver bullet for Afghanistan's ills, next month's meeting will at least provide an opportunity for the United States and NATO to lay out a functional roadmap ahead of and beyond 2014 for a successful political, security and economic transition, good governance, peace and reconciliation, and rule of law....
Hanging Between Hope and Fear: Italians at the Heart of International CrisisOctober 25, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriIstituto Affari Internazionali
Italy’s public opinion seems more open and daring of its political elites on some hot issues of the international agenda. Although increasingly concerned about the economic context and for the future of the European integration process, Italians seems rather optimist about stabilizing the situation in Libya and strongly in favor of promoting democracy in the Arab world, even if this entails the risk of greater short-term instability.
All-Weather Concerns: How Much Can Pakistan Expect From China?October 24, 2011 / Andrew SmallIndian Express
The last few months have been rife with speculation about Beijing’s willingness to fill the void if American financial and military support for Pakistan were to be curtailed. Far from brimming with strategic potential, the China-Pakistan relationship is now increasingly pushing up against its limits
Big Tent Key to Saving AfghanistanOctober 14, 2011 / Javid Ahmad, Louise LangebyThe Diplomat
The US and Afghan governments need to rethink the current peace process. Striking a deal with the Taliban is no magic bullet....
Is the Obama administration willing to back up Clinton’s talk with action?October 14, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Secretary of State Hillary Clinton deserves credit for laying out a comprehensive vision for U.S. engagement in the coming Indo-Pacific century. The harder question is whether the Obama administration is committed to maintaining a favorable balance of power in the Asia-Pacific—without which Clinton's many laudable objectives will be impossible to meet.
A Fighting ChanceSeptember 28, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
Although constituting no major revelations, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen’s testimony to a Senate committee last week, in which he accused Pakistan’s government and military of exporting terrorism, has focused public attention across the US and around the world on the growing fissures in US-Pakistan ties.
Will China’s Rise Spoil the Transatlantic Relationship?September 23, 2011 / Andrew Small, Daniel M. KlimanSpiegel Online
A new survey by the German Marshall Fund finds that China's rise is leading Americans to turn their attention away from Europe and to view China as more of a threat than Europeans do. But how much do these factors threaten the trans-Atlantic relationship, and how well can it adapt to changing circumstances?
Yoshihiko Noda’s vision for JapanSeptember 13, 2011 / Ryo SahashiEast Asia ForumThere is a strong tendency in Washington and other foreign capitals to believe that the Japanese politicians you know and that are practised in telling you what you want to hear are good, and that unfamiliar names are a bad sign for smooth international relations.Debating Australia’s strategic futureSeptember 01, 2011 / Daniel TwiningAustralian Broadcasting Corporation
For the first time in its history, Australia's primary economic partner is not its closest ally but its closest ally's emerging challenger. The days when Australia faced easy strategic choices and a benign external security environment are ending.
GMF’s de Hoop Scheffer on Regime Change in Politique EtrangèreSeptember 01, 2011 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferPolitique étrangèreGMF Paris Office Director Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer published an article on the U.S. policy of regime change from Iraq to the Arab revolts, in the journal Politique étrangère, vol. 76, n° 3, autumn 2011, special issue on the U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
India’s Arab Spring OpportunityAugust 24, 2011 / Daniel Twining, Richard FontaineThe Diplomat
In recognition of its growing global role and its status as the world’s largest democracy, India can play a unique role in supporting the democratic forces that have produced the Arab Spring. As demands for democratic change swell from Benghazi to Beijing, India’s liberal system gives it a unique strategic advantage that New Delhi should seize.
U.S.-India Relations: Can India Step Up to the Plate?August 02, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarEast-West Center's Asia Pacific Bulletin
It might seem natural to despair about the current state of US-India relations. New Delhi has eliminated two US suppliers from a landmark competition for 126 front-line fighter aircraft, a contract worth over $10 billion.
Why aren’t we working with Japan and India?July 18, 2011 / Daniel TwiningThe Washington Post
The Obama administration needs to consider what has shifted in our pivotal relationships with India and Japan and where it bears responsibility for the listlessness in our two biggest strategic partnerships in Asia.
Not Just a Flesh WoundJune 09, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
The Doha Round is dead. The sooner the World Trade Organization recognizes that, the sooner negotiators can turn their attention to other trade-liberalization accords.UN Climate Talks and Power Politics: It’s Not about the TemperatureMay 25, 2011 / Daniel Twining
Must U.S. climate diplomacy be a wedge rather than a bridge between the United States and key international partners? GMF Senior Fellow for Asia, Daniel Twining's testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on climate diplomacy.
Bingde Comes to WashingtonMay 18, 2011 / Daniel M. KlimanThe Diplomat
In a week dominated by news of the IMF director’s apparently sordid behavior, continued Middle East unrest, and the fallout of the United States’ successful military operation in the now infamous Pakistani city of Abbottabad, the U.S. hosting of China’s top general has received comparatively little media attention.African development: The role of traditional and emerging players reconsideredMay 16, 2011 / Jim Kolbe, Kathryn ThulinTrade Negotiations Insights
The growing engagement of emerging economies, notably China, India and Brazil, in Africa is changing the landscape for development bringing significant new opportunities (and challenges) for Africa.A fresh wind from the PacificMay 12, 2011 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice
With a U.S. Congressional vote on trade deals with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama now almost inevitable, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is rapidly making a priority of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, a free-trade agreement involving the United States, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.Smart InvestingMay 11, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
This week’s U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue addressed the gamut of bilateral issues troubling relations between the two superpowers: from the value of the Chinese currency to human rights. But no issue may have been more important for the future well-being of the U.S. economy than the trajectory of Chinese direct investment in the United States.What Future for Japan?May 11, 2011 / Daniel M. Kliman
The devastation wrought by the Great Tohoku Earthquake has reinforced perceptions inside and outside Japan of the country’s seemingly irreversible slide from economic superpower to sick man of Asia. Yet it would be premature to count Japan out as a factor in international politics.
Killing of Osama bin Laden has rehabilitated reputation of U.S. Government, officialsMay 04, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarAsian News International
The dust has already started to settle after President Barack Obama's dramatic announcement on Sunday evening that U.S. special forces had killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a late-night raid on a compound outside Abbottabad.
Dealing with a more assertive ChinaApril 21, 2011 / Andrew Small
In a hearing at the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, GMF's Andrew Small gave testimony on Beijing's increased international assertiveness. Emerging HangoverApril 20, 2011 / Kati Suominen
As the economic crisis fades in the rearview mirror, some analysts on Wall Street and in Washington expect the world economy to enter a prolonged global growth spurt powered by the emerging markets as a result of "industrialization and urbanization of emerging markets and global trade."The Pacific CampaignApril 14, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
The recent announcement that Colombia and the United States have a provisional agreement on issues that have long delayed completion of their free-trade agreement breaks the logjam that has held up a congressional vote on the South Korea, Colombia, and Panama trade deals.
Why Congress shouldn’t slash foreign aidApril 08, 2011 / Jim KolbeDaily Caller
Jim Kolbe and Connie Morella explain why Congress shouldn't slash foreign aid in an op-ed for The Daily Caller.Not a Chinese Century, An Indo-American OneApril 04, 2011 / Daniel TwiningGlobal Asia
China’s three decades of explosive growth and increasing influence on the global stage have often led to talk of the country dominating the 21st century. But democratic values and strategic interests shared by India and the US could upend this expectation as the two countries pull closer together.
Trade BoorApril 02, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Western governments looked on helplessly as Beijing developed its own brand of China-first capitalism. Now, according to Bruce Stokes, they’re contemplating how to fight back.Jim Kolbe moderates discussion with heads of the World Bank and WTO on Aid for Trade AgendaMarch 15, 2011 / Jim KolbeUS Chamber of Commerce
On March 14, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Jim Kolbe moderated a discussion between the President of the World Bank Group, Robert Zoellick, and the WTO's Director-General, Pascal LamyThe 112th Congress and Post-Crisis AsiaMarch 11, 2011 / Daniel TwiningNBR
An appreciation of America's enduring strengths should be a source of confidence for the 112th Congress. With the right choices, the U.S. will meet the challenges in Asia, draw benefits from Asian growth and peace, and continue to shape the future.
Echoes of the Soviet SurgeMarch 04, 2011 / Niels AnnenForeign Policy
The war in Afghanistan is not going well. A young president wants to pull out, but is boxed in by his generals. In Kabul, a corrupt, nominally democratic leader is losing his grip on power. A surge of ground troops has begun. The year is 1985.Essay: From earthquake to sauvignon blanc in New ZealandFebruary 25, 2011 / Jim KolbeGlobal PostAs I write this, I am sipping an iced tea and overlooking a beautiful river valley, writing with a borrowed laptop. Just a few days ago, this bliss seemed very far away. I was in Christchurch for the fourth meeting of the U.S.-New Zealand Partnership, a group that looks at different aspects of the bilateral relationship.The Pakistan ParallelFebruary 21, 2011 / Daniel TwiningWeekly Standard
Why has the Obama administration been so tepid in its support for the biggest popular revolution in the modern Arab world? The short answer is Washington’s fear that a vacuum left by President Mubarak’s departure will be filled by the Islamist Muslim Brotherhood.
Dan Price Interview on G20 Finance Ministers MeetingFebruary 18, 2011 / Daniel Twining
Dan Price, GMF G20 Advisory Group member and former U.S. sherpa to the G20, is interviewed by the Business News Network on the G20 finance ministers’ meeting taking place on February 18-19, 2011.A Comeback in Asia? How China is Shaping U.S. Foreign Policy in the PacificFebruary 17, 2011 / Niels AnnenFES
Debates about America being in decline are nothing new in the history of the United States, but the extent of pessimism currently shaping the foreign policy debate in Washington is remarkable. This time it’s for real was how Gideon Rachman subtitled a recent article for Foreign Policy on American decline.Failure to LaunchFebruary 12, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Exports would create American jobs, and India's new public-investment program offers a huge opportunity. So why aren't we tapping it? By Bruce StokesTrilateral ConcernsFebruary 10, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
The Stockholm China Forum, a semiannual gathering of American, European, and Chinese interests, is a useful venue to take the temperature of what is arguably the most important trilateral relationship in the world.More effective foreign assistance can pay real dividendsJanuary 28, 2011 / Jim KolbeDaily Caller
As a new Congress gets into gear, both Republicans and Democrats have a solemn duty to do the people?s work and to make sure their taxpayer dollars are being spent wisely. U.S. foreign assistance is already under the microscope, as it should be, but we believe policymakers should focus on making it better instead of slashing budgets.Opponent of My OpponentJanuary 22, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
Last year, mutual frustration with China’s increasingly irascible behavior— coupled with deepening concern about Pakistan—led to a reboot of the Indian-American relationship.China in 2011 and beyondJanuary 19, 2011 / Martin Jacques, Joseph Quinlan, Andrew SmallGMF Blog
To coincide with President Hu Jintao's historic visit to Washington, DC, GMF has published three articles on the state of China's relations with transatlantic partners.Political reform: China’s next modernization?January 13, 2011 / Daniel TwiningWashington Post
China boasts the world's second-largest economy, delivering double-digit economic growth on a seemingly permanent basis. As President Hu Jintao prepares to visit Washington next week, his country's model of authoritarian development looks unstoppable - with troubling implications for American primacy in world affairs.
Six challenges Obama faces in Asia in 2011, and six ways to overcome themJanuary 05, 2011 / Daniel Twining
President Obama had a good year in Asia in 2010. It featured a more realistic China policy, a breakthrough visit to India, and the shelving of an irritating base dispute with Japan, but challenges loom.
Fostering a Free AzerbaijanDecember 29, 2010 / Daniel TwiningWashington Post
Ten years ago this month, a young American civilian working for democracy in Azerbaijan was brutally murdered in the former Soviet republic's capital. The stabbing of John Alvis raised little public attention. A decade later, his death remains a crime deemed unsolved by the FBI.Herald a new orderDecember 21, 2010 / Daniel TwiningHindustan Times
United States President Barack Obama accomplished three important things during his visit to India last month. He put to bed a notion that held sway earlier in his administration that a US-China 'G2' could jointly manage Asia and the world.
Holbrooke Remembered for Contributions to Transatlantic RelationsDecember 14, 2010 / Daniel Twining
The German Marshall Fund is very saddened by the death of Ambassador Richard C. Holbrooke. He was a close friend of GMF and a committed transatlanticist. The transatlantic community will greatly miss his tireless efforts as a diplomat.Beijing’s behavior increases risk of war on the Korean PeninsulaDecember 09, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
Beijing's leadership role in the Six Party Talks on North Korea once embodied U.S. hopes that China would become a responsible stakeholder in issues of regional and global security. But its behavior toward an erratic and belligerent Pyongyang increasingly belies them.Korea TimeDecember 02, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
U.S. and South Korean negotiators rushed this week to strike a deal on a revised Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). Failure to get the deal done when President Obama visited Seoul in mid-November heightened skepticism about its prospects.A Climate Conference ReaderDecember 01, 2010 / Bruce Stokes
GMF is sending a contingent of climate change experts to the COP16 United Nations Climate Change Conference this week. A brief Q&A with one of our program associates outlines expectations, incentives, and the key players at the conference.
U.S.-India Relations: From Vision to ProcessNovember 18, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarAsia Pacific Bulletin
Barack Obama’s first visit to India as U.S. president was a welcome tonic for ties between the world’s two largest democratic powers, correcting early missteps by his administration.America: Stop lecturing China and do your homeworkNovember 17, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffRealClearWorldBarack Obama finally succeeded in uniting the world - just not the way he intended. At the G-20 summit in Seoul, countries almost universally rejected America's ideas for correcting current-account imbalances as well as its second round of quantitative easing (QE2). After an electoral shellacking at home, the U.S. president suffered a diplomatic shellacking abroad. It was one of the darker hours of American economic diplomacy.Are U.S.-India relations oversold?November 12, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The biggest disappointment of President Barack Obama's Asia trip was his failure to strike an agreement on the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement in Seoul. His biggest success was his embrace of a transformative partnership with India. The president can now claim ownership of a relationship that has been on the rocks since he took office.
The Long Currency WarNovember 12, 2010 / Kati SuominenForeign Policy
At the end of the G-20 summit, where world leaders managed only to delay dealing with difficult challenges from global imbalances to trade protectionism, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak proclaimed a "temporary end" to the so-called currency wars that have reached a fever pitch over the last two months as countries have manipulated their exchange rates to gain an edge in world markets.G20 Meeting Starts in SeoulNovember 10, 2010 / Kati Suominen
With the fifth meeting of the G-20 heads of government kicking off in Seoul this Thursday, GMF and Club de Madrid presents a series of materials exploring the likely outcomes and implications of this year's summit.For an Indo-American CenturyNovember 06, 2010 / Daniel TwiningIndian Express
President Obama’s trip to New Delhi and Mumbai should solidify a partnership that could shape the 21st century the way the Atlantic alliance shaped the 20th.
Lessons in regionalism: What can the WTO teach the IMF?November 03, 2010 / Kati SuominenVox.EU
Will financial regionalism damagingly fragment the global financial architecture precisely at the time when sturdy system-wide management is needed? This column points to the world trading system’s engagement with regional trade agreements as a source of lessons for how to harmonise regional and global approaches to international finance.Policies to Bridge Regional and Global Financial ArrangementsNovember 01, 2010 / Kati SuominenMIT Press
The G20 placed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the center of its efforts to tame the global financial crisis, tripling the Fund’s lending capacity and refurbishing its mission and instruments. However, as the world economy recovers, the Fund is facing difficult questions about its legitimacy and effectiveness.An EU Model for Asia?October 29, 2010 / Amy StuddartThe Straits Times
Despite being the largest meeting of heads of state and government in the world, the 8th Asia Europe Meeting (Asem) held in Brussels last week went largely unnoticed by the majority of the inhabitants of the two continents its members represent.The Return of GlobalizationOctober 21, 2010 / Kati Suominen, Gary HufbauerForeign Policy
As the G-20 finance ministers gather in South Korea this weekend in advance of November's big meeting, they will surely notice that globalization is back -- almost. The trajectory of world trade over the last two years looks V-shaped: a drop of 12.2 percent in 2009 followed by a projected gain of 13.5 percent in 2010. Can they agree to cooperate before protectionist urges tear them apart?A Roadmap for Revitalizing the U.S. Partnership With IndiaOctober 19, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Presiden Obama will visit South Korea on November 11-12 on a post-election Asian tour that will also take him to Japan, India, and Indonesia. The short stopover here has both strategic and trade implications for the White House.
What’s the Big Idea?October 01, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarPragati
There are expectations that Barack Obama's maiden trip to India as US president in November will be underwhelming. A month is a long time in international politics, and there is still a small, albeit narrowing, opportunity to create a mutually-acceptable and -beneficial organisational framework that would not only make this visit a personal success for Mr Obama, but also create a political mechanism that serves the interests both of the United States and India.
NATO and the Asian powers: Cooperation and its LimitsSeptember 30, 2010 / Andrew SmallStiftung Wissenschaft und Politik (SWP) - German Institute for International and Security Affairs
The patchwork of initiatives established between NATO and Asia has never been framed by any overarching region-specific rationale. Insofar as there is a strategic imperative driving outreach in the region, it has been an effort to draw in "global partners" into closer cooperation with existing alliance operations - primarily in Afghanistan - rather than any broader process of identifying shared security concerns either with the major Asian powers or even with traditional partners in the region.Double-Teaming ChinaSeptember 24, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Baroness Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s new foreign minister, will come to Washington next week on a mission. One of her goals is to strengthen the transatlantic dialogue about China.
China’s maritime agression should be wake-up call to JapanSeptember 20, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The Sino-Japanese standoff over Japan's detention of a Chinese trawler captain who acted aggressively towards the Japanese coast guard in waters near the disputed Senkaku islands is part of a larger pattern of Chinese assertiveness towards its neighbors over the past few years.
Beijing is Worth a Missed Dinner – Lady Ashton Goes to ChinaSeptember 02, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
Baroness Catherine Ashton, the EU foreign policy chief, chose to pass up dinner at the White House and instead pressed ahead with her trip to China, where she inaugurated a new strategic dialogue with her Chinese counterpart. Despite some consternation in Paris, Ashton’s decision reflects a well-founded conviction that China policy is one of the few areas where the new post-Lisbon foreign policy machinery could make a real difference.Why India has mixed emotions about ObamaAugust 06, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
If this is truly to be a partnership of equals between the world's predominant power and its next democratic superpower, both New Delhi and Washington share a responsibility to propel it forward. If Obama's commitment to that process is less robust than that of his predecessors, all the more reason for India's leaders to step up theirs.
Afghanistan: The Consequences of a “Conceptual Withdrawal”July 29, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Spiegel Online; Real Clear World
"We have moved from a narrative, which lasted for years, that everything was fine when it wasn’t to a narrative that everything is going wrong when it isn’t.” This lament from a former Western official, who, like others quoted in this piece, did not speak for attribution, summed up the frustrations of many in Kabul about the growing disconnect between the political timetables inside and outside the country. The concern is not only that the various transition deadlines are unrealistic, but that their very existence is creating counterproductive pressures that will make them even harder to achieve.
How the EU is seen in Asia, and what to do about itJuly 28, 2010 / Andrew SmallEuropean View
In Asia's major capitals, the last few years have seen marked shifts in perspectives on the European Union. Not so long ago the EU was viewed as everything from a rising political power to a model for regional order. The combination of economic stagnation and the painful process of fixing the EU's institutional arrangements has been part of the problem.Why the U.S. can’t look to NATO or the EU to support its Russia strategyJuly 23, 2010 / Stephen SzaboEurope's World
Europe is proving a foreign policy disappointment to the Obama Administration as it struggles to propound a clearer strategy toward Russia. Washington now recognizes, says Stephen Szabo, that only Berlin has the key to a new relationship with Moscow.U.S. Acted Too Hastily in Spy SwapJuly 12, 2010 / Stephen SzaboThe Moscow Times
Most analysts in the United States are praising U.S. President Barack Obama and the way his administration handled the spy swap. Many in Russia, by comparison, are blasting the Foreign Intelligence Service for an inept, clumsy spy operation that embarrassed their country. Both governments seem eager to put the controversy behind them as quickly as possible, but many questions remain unanswered before this episode gets relegated to the history books.
On Wednesday, China and Pakistan signed pacts on cooperation in agriculture, healthcare, justice, media, economy, and technology. Both sides also vowed to step up joint efforts against terrorism. But while the relationship between the two countries is strong, it's shadowed by Beijing's concerns about Pakistan's security threat and its impact on Chinese investment and personnel in Pakistan.China in Check? The Limits to Beijing’s AssertivenessJuly 07, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
The U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue capped off a three-month period that has returned the Sino-U.S. relationship to a state of fragile equilibrium. Strategic mistrust remains pervasive and there are few issues on which the two sides genuinely see eye-to-eye. But the missteps of 2009 provided some important lessons for better management of future differences.China presses ahead with Pakistan nuclear deal – and contemplates U.S. withdrawal from AfghanistanJuly 06, 2010 / Andrew SmallGMF Blog
GMF's Andrew Small blogs on his recent trip to China to discuss Afghanistan and Pakistan, including interviews on the Chashma-3 and 4 deal with Pakistan.Zardari’s Visit to China (audio interview)July 05, 2010 / Andrew SmallDeutsche Welle Radio
Pakistani President Asif Ali Zardari is traveling to China on Tuesday for high-level talks on nuclear cooperation. Andrew Small talks to Deutsche Welle Radio about the effects Zardari's visit is likely to have on the balance of power in the region.China’s Caution on Afghanistan-PakistanJune 30, 2010 / Andrew SmallWashington Quarterly
Although the ongoing crisis in Afghanistan and Pakistan looks like a prime candidate for closer cooperation between the United States and China, prospects of pursuing complementary policies will remain limited until China fundamentally reappraises its strategy for dealing with extremism in the region.McChrystal’s Replacement Marks the End of the “Big Macs” in AfghanistanJune 29, 2010 / Niels AnnenSocial Europe Journal
The McChrystal incident is not only meat for the tireless hosts of cable news shows; it also represents another chapter in the sometimes complicated relationship between the commander-in-chief and his generals.‘No-One Is Going to Be Bought Off by a Tiny Revaluation’June 26, 2010 / Andrew SmallSpiegel Online
In the run-up to the G-20 summit, China has tried to placate the United States with a revaluation of its currency. But the move is not a real change of course, explains the German Marshall Fund's Andrew Small in a Spiegel Online interview. He argues that the Chinese leadership is more concerned with deflecting external criticism than with the health of the global economy.‘A lack of fire in the belly,’ concludes Pakistan on Obama’s war strategyJune 25, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
No matter how talented General David Petraeus proves to be commanding American and NATO forces, it is hard to see how our Afghan strategy can be successful absent a strategic reorientation by the Obama administration that creates a different calculus for leaders in Kabul and Rawalpindi (headquarters of the Pakistani armed forces) with regard to the Afghan endgame.
Net assessment in defence policyJune 20, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarBusiness Standard
Net assessment involves simulations, opposition analysis, historical and cultural studies, critical reviews and low-probability, high-impact contingency planning. Read
Did global imbalances cause the crisis?June 14, 2010 / Kati SuominenVoxEU
Did global imbalances cause the global crisis? This column summarises the variety of explanations of the relationship between imbalances and the crisis. While the debate continues, it suggests that, as a matter of prudence, policies to contain global imbalances may still be warranted even if they did not trigger the crisis.
A new year, another new Japanese prime minister. Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama's resignation makes him the fourth Japanese leader in four years to fall from power. What are the implications for the U.S.-Japan alliance?
Diplomatic NegligenceMay 10, 2010 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly Standard
Despite the many affinities between the United States and India, the Obama administration risks putting India back into its subcontinental box, treating it as little more than a regional power, while it elevates China, through both rhetoric and policy, to the level of a global superpower on par with the United States.
Getting Asia right means getting India rightApril 27, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
President Obama's Asia policy remains a work in progress with some real possibilities to advance key relationships. But losing India may do more to weaken the U.S. position in Asia than any number of accomplishments in relations with Japan, South Korea, and other partners.
The BRICs: Building blocks of a new world order that diminishes the West?April 23, 2010 / Daniel TwiningReal Clear World
China is a manufacturing superpower; India is the world's largest democracy and "knowledge power"; Russia is a potential "energy superpower," according to the U.S. National Intelligence Council; and Brazil dominates a region lacking any great power competitor. An alliance among these behemoths could change history in ways that diminish the West.
Beijing blinks first: the Currency Debate in Diplomatic ContextApril 16, 2010 / Andrew SmallVoxEU
While the U.S. Treasury's decision on whether to label China a currency manipulator is inevitably political in nature, rarely has it ever been so geopolitically loaded. In previous years, it has mainly been the economic relationship at stake. This time the implications run from Middle Eastern security to nuclear proliferation, and will do much to define the broader shape of the U.S.-China relationship in the coming years. Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century: The Role of Korean-American Partnership in Shaping Asia’s Emerging OrderApril 01, 2010 / Daniel TwiningThe U.S.-ROK Alliance in the 21st Century (book chapter)
While the United States' other relationships in Asia have transformed as the region has re-emerged, the relationship with South Korea remains stuck in the past, frozen by the continuing conflict on the Korean peninsula. South Korea and the United States will both benefit from a strengthened alliance, positioning both countries in a space where they can adapt and thrive in an Asian century.
State of DenialMarch 29, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
The last few weeks have been marked by perceived divergences between India and the United States over l'affaire Headley and Pakistan's request for a civilian nuclear agreement. Indian commentators, already frustrated by the direction of U.S.-India relations under President Barack Obama, have used the two incidents to question the potential for a long-term strategic partnership between New Delhi and Washington.
On this Asia trip, Obama could take a cue from BushMarch 16, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
When it comes to Asia, perhaps serving administration officials should spend less time slamming their predecessors' record and more time studying up on it.
Chinese CheckersFebruary 20, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational JournalAs China grows more powerful, the diplomatic game becomes harder, something the Obama administration discovered to its dismay in year one of its China policy.What the capture of Mullah Baradar says about Pakistan’s intentionsFebruary 16, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe capture of Taliban commander Mullah Baradar in a combined Pakistani-American intelligence operation in Karachi is a major development in the war on terror. This is true not only, and obviously, with reference to the military campaign against the Taliban in Afghanistan. Perhaps more profoundly, it is also true with reference to the future of U.S.-Pakistan relations.Friendship, WarilyFebruary 13, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational JournalThe United States and India have become closer than at any time in recent history. But two magnets can repel as well as attract.Quitting Isn’t An OptionFebruary 09, 2010 / Daniel TwiningTimes of IndiaWorld leaders meeting in London recently to discuss Afghanistan's future have dealt themselves a weak hand. The principal obstacles to success in Afghanistan have not been the adversary's strength or any lack of support for the international mission by the Afghan public. Rather, the primary obstacles to victory have been western temporising, irresolution and planned force reductions on a timeline that better suits the Taliban's strategic objectives than our own.Dealing With a More Assertive ChinaFebruary 08, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Al Jazeera; Forbes; The Diplomat; RealClearWorld; Foreign Policy; The Atlantic Community
The mood on China in Western capitals is beginning to darken. From cyber-attacks to obstinacy in Copenhagen, Beijing's assertiveness and the hardening tone of its diplomacy are prompting a rethink. If the competitive aspects of the relationship with China are going to dominate in the years ahead, have the United States and Europe got their strategies right? And if not, what are the options?Cracking ChimericaFebruary 04, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Indian Express
American foreign policy concepts can be as fickle as fashion trends. The most recent catchphrase is “G-2”, popularised by Zbigniew Brzezinski, and meant to reflect a necessary and desirable duopoly between the US and China. The Obama administration was seen as buying into this concept when it institutionalised a strategic and economic dialogue between the two countries last year.
The Difficult Triangle of the Pacific PowersFebruary 02, 2010 / Jörg HimmelreichNeue Zürcher ZeitungIndia, China, and the United States rely on each other as littoral states of the Pacific, but they also compete with each other at the same time. Washington’s rapprochement to Beijing will fail in the long run if it does not consider the encumbered Chinese-Indian relationship.Getting Afghanistan right in LondonJanuary 29, 2010 / Daniel TwiningTransatlantic TakeIf there is one thing the allies can accomplish in London, it is to signal to the Afghan Taliban - and to all Afghans and neighboring powers sitting on the fence, waiting to cast their lot with the winning side - that NATO is in this fight to win it.The New Superpower: ‘The Chinese Are Unready by Their Own Admission’ for Global LeadershipJanuary 29, 2010 / Andrew SmallSpiegel Online
The United States and China have grown so powerful that people around the world speak reverentially of a "G-2." But there are cracks in the alliance, as the German Marshall Fund's Andrew Small explains in a Spiegel Online interview. Frustration is growing in the United States over Beijing's lack of cooperation on economic issues.Get China right by getting Asia rightJanuary 21, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyIn 2010, President Obama would be well-advised to shift from an "inside-out" to an "outside-in" Asia policy. Rather than taking an approach to this dynamic region that starts with Beijing, raising fears of a Sino-American condominium, he could follow former Deputy Secretary of State Richard Armitage's maxim that "getting China right means getting Asia right." Eine deutsche PakistanstrategieJanuary 09, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, Daniel TwiningBerliner ZeitungIn this German-language op-ed (full text in original language here), Kleine-Brockhoff and Twining argue that ignoring Pakistan is dangerous for a country that has troops in Afghanistan -- even if it is only a midsize country and has no historical ties to Pakistan or interests there. But if Germany wants to be successful in Afghanistan and eventually withdraw, it will have to engage more actively in Pakistan, and make more resources and attention available.Cheer up America: You’re still on top of the world.January 05, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe United States need not be so pessimistic about its future. Its position in the world continues to grow in significance, and there is little indication that it is entering a period of decline - even in the face of Asia's rise.The Self-Chained RepublicJanuary 01, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerInternationale PolitikThe lonely decision by a German colonel in Kunduz to call in a NATO airstrike on Taliban forces who had hijacked a pair of fuel trucks may yet become a maturity test for Germany's political culture, twenty years after the fall of the Wall. A specially created investigative committee in the German federal legislature will now examine who was responsible for the many weaknesses and flaws apparent in the incident itself, as well as in its handling. But it is unlikely to examine the fundamental issues at the heart of German security policy: Does Germany even have a security policy which deserves that name? Does it have a strategy? How effective are the actors, institutions and instruments of German security policy?Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century: The Role of Korean-American Partnership in Shaping Asia’s Emerging OrderDecember 31, 2009 / Daniel TwiningKINUNortheast Asia is a region where the interests of several great powers are in constant flux between competition and cooperation. Such a peculiar strategic environment is reflected in the dynamics of the Korean Peninsula.The new pecking orderDecember 27, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDer Tagesspiegel
Copenhagen has shown the globe to be in transition. The multipolar world may be arriving, but so far multipolarity means chaos. In such moments of transition it is not quite clear where power rests.Lessons of the Copenhagen discordDecember 21, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffFinancial TimesIt will be discussed for some time whether the Copenhagen accord represents an unsatisfactory compromise or an unmitigated failure. Whatever the ultimate answer, there are some preliminary lessons that can be drawn from a memorably chaotic global gathering.
Resetting U.S. Russian Relations: It Takes TwoDecember 16, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffWashington QuarterlyPresident Barack Obama deserves credit for his initial efforts to reverse the deterioration in relations between the United States and Russia. The downward spiral in bilateral ties accelerated by Russia's invasion of Georgia last year has ended for now, but relations are not likely to improve appreciably because of fundamental differences in values, interests, and outlook between the two countries' leaderships.What is Obama’s real ‘Exit Strategy’ for Afghanistan? And why it matters to IndiaDecember 04, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
One way to judge President Obama's speech announcing (another) new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan is by how it fares among those on the front lines. As one senior official in Kabul puts it in today's Wall Street Journal Asia, "We couldn't solve the Afghanistan problem in eight years, but now the U.S. wants to solve it in 18 months? I don't see how it could be done."
Taking the HeatDecember 01, 2009 / Dhruva JaishankarPragati - The Indian National Interest Review
Nobody said climate change negotiations would be easy. On both the WTO’s Doha Round and the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, India found itself at the vanguard of opposition to the West, with damaging but fortunately not disastrous political consequences. It appeared that a similar outcome was inevitable on climate negotiations.
Why Obama needs to play his cards right with IndiaNovember 24, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyAs Obama sits down with Prime Minister Singh, he should consider India as the key ally of the U.S. in Asia, both in terms of practical cooperation on global issues and in terms of ensuring that India continues to rise as an alternative to China, sharing the values of the West. A Gift (in Disguise) to Europe and Japan: the G2November 18, 2009 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
A 'G2' is unlikely. Substantial difference between the United States and China make accord difficult to reach, but discussion about the concept puts pressure on China to be more globally responsible - and that is a good thing for Europe and Japan. Afghanistan and Pakistan: Time for the Hatoyama Administration to Show Japan’s Latent PowerNovember 18, 2009 / Daniel TwiningWedgeIn a day where Japan's importance in the world seems to be diminishing, 'AfPak' is a valuable opportunity for Japan to demonstrate that it is still an important player in both Asia and the world at large, as well as to support its transatlantic allies. A Cold WindNovember 12, 2009 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
Barack Obama may be the first post-Boomer president, but he appears to retain a similar orientation to Clinton in matters pertaining to India, although for his generation India is more closely associated with Satyam than satyagraha.
A crib sheet for President Obama’s upcoming Asian summitryNovember 10, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe United States is at the center of the international system in Asia, and desirably so. During his visit to Asia, President Obama should show that he has a strategic vision for sustaining American leadership in the region.Is China a new ideological superpower? Don’t bet on it.October 29, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyChina's political system makes it an outlier in a democratic Asia, rather than an example of a new model. Afghanistan-Pakistan: Bringing China (Back) InOctober 23, 2009 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
Of all the regional actors engaged in Afghanistan and Pakistan, China's role is perhaps the most opaque. Alternately coaxed as a potential savior and condemned as a parasitic free-rider, the transatlantic allies have not yet worked out how to harness Beijing's undoubted influence and economic clout. This is not altogether surprising: China's motives are complex and at times contradictory. But if the United States and Europe play their hand well, an opening exists - Beijing's security calculus is changing in ways that are increasingly favorable to greater cooperation.Opinion: A hidden deal on Iran sanctions?October 17, 2009 / Andrew SmallGlobal PostFor those hoping the international community might finally be getting more serious about possible sanctions against Iran for its continued defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions, the headlines this week were downright discouraging. “In Face of Sanctions Push, China Warms Up to Iran,” The New York Times declared on Friday. “China Lauds Ties with Iran,” according to Thursday's Wall Street Journal. And, as Charles Krauthammer noted in his column in Friday’s Washington Post, his own paper said on Wednesday: “Russian Not Budging on Iran Sanctions; Clinton Unable to Sway Counterpart.”Clinton in Moscow: A mixed bagOctober 16, 2009 / Andrew SmallForeign PolicySecretary of State Hillary Clinton came away from her visit to Moscow this week with mixed results. The two big ticket items involved Iran and the human rights situation inside Russia.
Missing from the Georgia ReportOctober 03, 2009 / Jörg HimmelreichThe New York TimesThe Russian-Georgian "five-day war" in August 2008 did not end the political conflict: It has all the potential to explode into a new armed confrontation any day.The stakes in Afghanistan go well beyond AfghanistanSeptember 30, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe problem with the current debate over Afghanistan is that it is too focused on Afghanistan. There is no question that the intrinsic importance of winning wars our country chooses to fight -- to secure objectives that remain as compelling today as they were on September 12, 2001 -- is itself reason for President Obama to put in place a strategy for victory in Afghanistan.Can Berlin and Washington Agree on Russia?September 28, 2009 / Stephen SzaboWashington QuarterlyBoth Russia and Germany are back on the U.S. agenda. Russia will be a key element of a wide array of policies to the Obama administration, including dealing with Iran and the construction of a broader nonproliferation regime, energy security, nuclear arms reductions, and Afghanistan. Russia policy will also be central to U.S. designs for NATO, including how to deal with Georgia and Ukraine, and the viability of a pan-European security structure.A Deal with Moscow? Don’t Bet on ItSeptember 25, 2009 / Stephen SzaboForeign PolicyWill Medvedev's words actually translate into Russian actions when it comes time to draft a tough resolution and vote? The Obama team appears to expect the Russians to go along, especially after its decision last week to scrap Bush administration plans for missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic. McFaul and other senior officials have rejected the notion of such a deal.Placating Russia Won’t WorkSeptember 18, 2009 / Stephen SzaboThe Washington Post
Russian leaders never liked the idea that the United States, Poland and the Czech Republic were cooperating on missile defense to confront an emerging Iranian threat. With the Obama administration's announcement that it is indeed abandoning the Polish and Czech sites, Moscow's complaining appears to have worked.
A Serious MistakeSeptember 17, 2009 / Stephen SzaboNew York Times Room for Debate BlogWhile not surprised by President Obama’s decision, I’m nonetheless very disappointed and think it’s a serious mistake. Leaders in Moscow, by comparison, must feel victorious. Coming days before Obama meets Dmitri Medvedev in New York and Pittsburgh , the decision clearly seems timed to remove from the U.S.-Russian agenda an issue that the Russians didn’t like — namely, that we were working with Poland and the Czech Republic on missile defense.
Our Pakistan ProblemSeptember 14, 2009 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardWhat national interest does the United States have in Afghanistan? According to recent polls, more and more Americans doubt there is any. This flagging support partly reflects the job the Obama administration has done explaining its goals and strategy in Afghanistan to a skeptical public. But it also reflects the underappreciated fact that succeeding in Afghanistan and defeating America's enemies there, as important as that is in its own right, is even more so for its effects in shaping Pakistan's future.
Germany shoots first and thinks againSeptember 09, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerThe Financial TimesThe night a German army colonel by the name of Georg Klein called in a massive Nato airstrike on two fuel trucks hijacked by Taliban fighters in northern Afghanistan was a watershed moment. Although the exact number of casualties is still unknown - estimates suggest more than 50 died - it seems likely that it will prove to have been, as one American newspaper put it, "the most deadly operation involving German forces since World War II". But will we also remember it as the night Germany grew up and started to call a war a war?Ironed Curtain: The Biggest Loser in the EU’s Report on the Russia-Georgia War is Europe.September 08, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerThe New RepublicAfter the Russo-Georgian War in August 2008, the European Union found itself in a difficult position. Moscow had not only invaded a neighbor for the first time since the Soviet assault on Afghanistan in 1979. In recognizing Abkhazia and South Ossetia as independent states, it had also broken the cardinal rule of post-cold war European security: that borders in Europe would never again be changed by force of arms. Yet Georgia, too, had clearly made mistakes, not the least in embroiling itself in a military conflict with Russia that Georgia's own allies had repeatedly warned against. An Indian election primerApril 16, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign PolicyThe Indian elections beginning today will be the largest organized activity in human history (always true of Indian elections given the country's growing population). As many as 714 million eligible voters will be marking ballots for a new Indian parliament that will convene in June.Questions that Obama’s Af-Pak strategy doesn’t answerMarch 30, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyFellow Republicans have hailed President Obama's new strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan. The new administration's strategy is welcome, both for its substance and, as importantly, for the profile it has given to the urgency of defeating the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan and its growing strength in Pakistan. But as with every strategy, it contains trade-offs and shortcomings that, after the warm glow that has accompanied the Washington establishment's reception of the president's plan has worn off, may become more apparent.What we learned from Pakistan’s recent political crisisMarch 17, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyPakistan's political crisis of last weekend was precipitated by opposition leader Nawaz Sharif's pledge to march on Islamabad in support of freedom of the judiciary after both Nawaz and his brother Shahbaz, who had been chief minister of Punjab province, were disqualified by Musharraf-era Supreme Court justices from holding elected office.
Sarkozy’s decision ups pressure on ObamaMarch 14, 2009 / John K. GlennGlobalPostWhen Obama travels to Europe in early April, he will face questions on the economic crisis and about whether Europeans are willing to do more in Afghanistan. Complicating matters is French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s announcement that he will bring France back into the military wing of NATO, reversing Charles de Gaulle’s decision of 40 years ago.Could China and India go to war over Tibet?March 10, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy, RealClearWorld.comToday is the 50th anniversary of the Lhasa uprising. Much of the associated commentary suggests that Tibet is, at most, an internal human rights issue in China, albeit one that impacts China's foreign relations with Western democracies who care about the plight of the Tibetan people. Indeed, the Dalai Lama's admission that Tibet is part of China, and that he seeks true autonomy rather than actual independence for his people, reaffirm this view. There is also, however, an external dimension to the Tibetan crisis, one that implicates core national security interests of nuclear-armed great powers.Five Reasons Why This North Korean Crisis is No Groundhog DayMarch 05, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyNorth Korea’s missile and nuclear tests, new threats of war against its declared enemies, and the predictable results of these developments -– expressions of concern at the UN Security Council, U.S. offers of more unconditional talks, China’s ambivalent response –- suggest that we remain in the “Groundhog Day” cycle of crisis and response that has characterized U.S. policy towards Pyongyang since 1994Germany’s Russia QuestionMarch 01, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign AffairsLast July, more than 200,000 people flocked to a public park in Berlin to hear Barack Obama, then the Democratic candidate for president of the United States, deliver a speech calling for renewed transatlantic partnership and cooperation. The choice of Germany’s long-divided capital as the backdrop for his only public speech in Europe was deliberate.To the Germans listening to him that summer evening in the Tiergarten,Obama made a special appeal, citing “a set of ideals that speak to aspirations shared by all people,” the same “dream of freedom” that was the basis of the relationship between the United States and West Germany during the Cold War. Now that Obama is president, will Germany respond to the call and join the United States as a key European partner in addressing global challenges and threats?Don’t Dumb Down AfghanistanFebruary 23, 2009 / Daniel Twining, Gary SchmittThe Weekly StandardReading tea leaves is a dangerous business when it comes to a new administration. There is always a fair amount of floundering around that comes from having too few senior people in place, unsettled -policymaking processes, and indecision over which campaign promises to keep and which to toss overboard. Take, for example, the Obama administration's policy toward Afghanistan. While running for president, Barack Obama promised that help was on its way in the form of thousands of additional troops; now President Obama appears to have put his own promised surge on hold.India needs a lot more love from ObamaFebruary 20, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy, RealClearWorld.comIn 1998, President Clinton flew over Japan without stopping to spend nine days in China. This led to acute concern in Tokyo over "Japan passing" -- the belief that Washington was neglecting a key Asian ally in favor of the region's rising star, China. Is the same thing happening today -- not with Japan, destination of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's first overseas trip, but with India?A U.S. Asia strategy for Hillary Clinton’s tripFebruary 15, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyHillary Clinton deserves kudos for making Asia her first trip as secretary of state. Generations of senior U.S. officials were trained and socialized as Atlanticists, a legacy of the centrality of Europe during the Cold War. However, it does not diminish our European allies to acknowledge that if the 20th century was an Atlantic century, the 21st century looks likely to be a Pacific one.Don’t move the goalposts on AfghanistanJanuary 28, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyIf Iraq was "Bush's War," Afghanistan may well become "Obama's War." But as the New York Times reports today, the Obama administration is attempting to shift the goalposts in Afghanistan away from building a functioning democracy and toward the limited objective of denying terrorists sanctuary on Afghan soil.You were at the Inauguration; China was planning for warJanuary 22, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyWhile everyone here in the United States and beyond was focused on Barack Obama's Inauguration on Tuesday, China chose that day to slip this little item under the door -- China's National Defense in 2008, their annual white paper detailing plans for increased defense spending and military modernization.Fidel’s choiceNovember 27, 2008 / Andrew SmallInternational Herald Tribune
It was once said of Fidel Castro that his "stomach is in Moscow but his heart is in Beijing." Now the opposite seems to be true.The EU is in urgent need of a foreign energy policyNovember 11, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichNeue Zürcher ZeitungThe EU is in urgent need of a Foreign Energy Policy. Without closer coordination within the EU, Moscow has more pull.Putin’s Great EmpireOctober 09, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichInternationale PolitikUnfortunately, the Russian Georgia war confirmed that, beyond the constitution and even as prime minister, Putin is still the political leader in Russia and will be so for some time. The war indicated more parallels to the expanding Russian empire of the 19th century than of the USSR after the Second World War when the Soviet Union's main interest in Europe was to consolidate the frontiers. Today's revisionistic Russia in contrast to the the static Soviet Union pursuits to newly revise its frontiers in the European Post Sovitic space. This is driven by an increasing Russian Neonationalism. Europe, in particular, is required to readjust its Russia policy to formulate a robust economic response.
Principles in the pipeline: Managing transatlantic values and interests in Central AsiaOctober 01, 2008 / Alexander CooleyInternational AffairsAfter 9/11 the Central Asian states hosted coalition military bases and became important security partners for operations in Afghanistan. The rising price of oil and gas, coupled with a renewed western concern about its energy security, made the development and export of Central Asian production a much more pressing commercial and strategic priority for Brussels and Washington than it was in the 1990s. A region that was effectively ignored for over a decade has now become a vital area of transatlantic interest.
A balance of power askewSeptember 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDie ZEITIt matters less than it used to what NATO promises new member states or candidate countries. Russia is no longer easily deterred. It's never been a secret that Russia objects to NATO enlargement, especially when it comes to countries bordering its own territory. Post-soviet Russia was initially poor and weak. Russia has since become rich, authoritarian, and has discovered new weapons in gas and oil. At the same time, America is overstretched.
Finding Out Truth about Georgian WarSeptember 17, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffRealClear WorldLast week Senator Hillary Clinton called for a congressional commission to investigate the origins of the Georgian war. It is the latest skirmish in an intellectual battle over how a little war in farway Georgia started and what it mean for US policy for years. There are clashing narratives of what happened and what it means.
Russia warms to the West no moreAugust 26, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffSüddeutsche ZeitungGerman policy vis a vis Russia needs to be rethought. There is no longer a basis for Germany's "Strategic Partnership" with Russia. The occupation of parts of Georgia is a game changer. In 1996, Chancellor Helmut Kohl offered the Russians a deal: Nato would allow the Central and Eastern European countries to join while Russia would be offered to gradually integrate into Western and global institutions. Germany would anker this common western policy. The argument was: Integration would make Russia safer and richer. The strategy has worked: Russia is safe and rich. Yet it is choosing a different path: it wants to be rich, authoritarian and a bully vis a vis its neighbors.Naive MiscalculationsAugust 15, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichFrankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungThe Russian military overreaction to Georgian occupation of Tskhinvali will change the German and European relationship with Russia. Europe's helplessness and America's inability to pose a military presence in the Caucasus represents a new geopolitical order in which Russia has yet again established the power to redraw the contours of Europe, going far beyond just its energy distribution power. Russia's agression offers an opportunity for Germany to develop a new Russia policy. Instead of Germany's special relationship with Russia, it seems as though closer cooperation with East European EU members and America could have greater success.
How the West Botched GeorgiaAugust 13, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichThe New RepublicThe guns around Tbilisi have now fallen silent. Efforts are underway to finalize a truce between Russia and Georgia to end Moscow's bloody invasion. It is time for the West to look in the mirror and ask: What went wrong? How did this disaster happen? Make no mistake. While this is first and foremost a disaster for the people and government of Georgia, it is also a disaster for the West--and for the U.S. in particular.
Europa muss aufwachenAugust 13, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltSenior Transatlantic Fellow Joerg Himmelreich discusses the ongoing conflict between Georgia and Russia over breakaway provinces South Ossetia and Abkhazia. This article was written in German.
In weeks and years past, each of us has argued on this page that Moscow was pursuing a policy of regime change toward Georgia and its pro-Western, democratically elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili. We predicted that, absent strong and unified Western diplomatic involvement, we were headed toward a war. Now, tragically, an escalation of violence in South Ossetia has culminated in a full-scale Russian invasion of Georgia. The West, and especially the United States, could have prevented this war. We have arrived at a watershed moment in the West's post-Cold War relations with Russia.
A Hot Proxy War: Moscow’s Power PoliticsAugust 11, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichDer SpiegeThe rapid escalation of the conflict in South Ossetia shows just how much the crisis suits all parties involved. Georgia wants to integrate itself into the West, and Russia wants to prevent just that. The welfare of the South Ossetians plays no role whatsoever.
Politics beats economics, againJuly 30, 2008 / Jack ThurstonThe GuardianWhoever's to blame for the collapse of the Doha round, one thing's for sure ? we'll all have to live with the consequences.Get involved over Georgia or invite a warJune 03, 2008 / Jack ThurstonFinancial TimesThe west could be sleepwalking into a war on the European continent. Georgia, which burst into view with a moving display of democratic ambition during the Rose Revolution of 2003, is teetering on the brink of war with Russia over the separatist Georgian enclave of Abkhazia. The outcome of this crisis will help determine the rules of the post-cold-war security system. But western diplomats are notsending strong enough signals to either side.
The End of the End of HistoryApril 22, 2008 / Robert KaganThe New RepublicGMF Transatlantic Fellow Robert Kagan gives five reasons as to why the twenty-first century will look like the nineteenth.
“Preventing the next Cold War” revisitedApril 21, 2008 / Andrew SmallDe Volkskrant
The war in Iraq may yet prove to have one lasting and little-noticed benefit: reducing the threat of a new cold war between the United States and China. The weakening of the U.S. global power position that the war induced has led officials in the second Bush administration to turn again and again to seek the support of the country that they labeled a strategic competitor only a few years earlier.
India’s relations with Iran and Myanmar: “Rogue state” or responsible democratic stakeholder?April 10, 2008 / Daniel TwiningIndia ReviewWhat kind of great power will India become as it rises in the twenty-first century? Indian foreign policy today embodies the contradictions and ambiguities stemming from India's ongoing evolution from a nonaligned, developing nation into one of the world's most powerful democracies. Democracy and American grand strategy in Asia: The realist principles behind an enduring idealismMarch 31, 2008 / Daniel Twining, Michael J. GreenContemporary Southeast AsiaHas democracy promotion been discredited as a central theme of American foreign policy after the US experience in Iraq? Many American critics and friends overseas appear to believe so. It would be wrong, however, to believe that the ideational approach of American foreign policy will diminish, particularly in Asia.
Supping at the WTO’s Last Chance SaloonMarch 27, 2008 / Daniel Twining, Michael J. GreenEuropean Voice, Editorial & OpinionThe global credit squeeze has made the world's economics ministers understandably jittery. But the crisis unfolding over world trade is far more serious. With the Doha Round of talks at the WTO at a standstill, now the unthinkable could happen. The global trading system may be abandoned.China’s changing policies towards rogue statesMarch 18, 2008 / Andrew SmallTestimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC)
Chinese policy towards rogue states has undergone a quiet revolution in the last few years. While China is far from being a genuinely like-minded partner to the United States in dealing with these countries, its cooperation is becoming an increasingly central factor in diplomatic efforts to find solutions to the crises in North Korea, Iran, Sudan, and Burma. The testimony sets out the nature of the shift in Chinese policy, the driving factors, the constraints on its scope, and the implications for U.S. policy.A new catastrophe for the boat peopleFebruary 21, 2008 / Elizabeth BeckerThe Boston GlobeLe Dung was 7 when his family bought passage on a rickety boat and fled the communist government of Vietnam for parts unknown. That was 30 years ago, when the plight of the Vietnamese boat people filled newspapers as one of the most dramatic stories coming out of the Cold War in Asia, and the United Nations convened a special conference to find them homes. Today these former boat people endure further misfortune after their homes were destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.ACPs and EPAs: where’s the beef?January 03, 2008 / Elizabeth BeckerTrade Negotiations InsightsNow that the Doha round appears to be stirring back to life, some of the world's poorest countries should be looking to multilateralism to protect their interests with a renewed sense of urgency.The U.S. Factor in Sino-European RelationsDecember 01, 2007 / Andrew SmallChina-EU: A Common Future
For Europe and China alike, the most important bilateral relationship is with the United States. Although often described as a ‘strategic triangle’, neither the Chinese impact on the transatlantic relationship nor Europe’s role in the Sino-US relationship is remotely comparable to the significance of the United States for the Sino-European relationship.Justice too long delayed – killing fieldsNovember 22, 2007 / Elizabeth BeckerInternational Herald TribuneIt had been nearly 30 years since the overthrow of the regime of the infamous ''killing fields,'' in which an estimated 1.7 million Cambodians perished. Yet in all those years no one had been held accountable for one of the worst crimes against humanity of the last century.Our Pakistan ChallengeNovember 19, 2007 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardPakistan is the swing state in the worldwide struggle against Islamic terrorists. Its decisive position makes Pervez Musharraf's imposition of martial law on November 3 a hard test for American foreign policy.Playing the America CardOctober 01, 2007 / Daniel TwiningWeekly StandardChina's rise in Asia and the world is one of the big stories of our time. Goldman Sachs predicts that China's economy will be bigger than America's in two decades. From Shanghai to Singapore, one hears whispers of a "new Chinese century" recalling the Sino-centric hierarchy of traditional Asia. Yet China's geopolitical ascent is creating what Mao Zedong would have termed a "contradiction": China's rising power makes the United States increasingly important to nearly every Asian nation, including China itself.
Asia’s challenge to ChinaSeptember 25, 2007 / Daniel TwiningFinancial TimesAmerican economic weakness, Europe's uncertain political and demographic future, turmoil in the Middle East and challengers to western leadership from Moscow to Tehran may signal a new moment in world politics. It is characterised by the decline of free nations whose power and principles have shaped international society for centuries and the emergence of an autocratic Chinese superpower whose seemingly unstoppable economic ascent shatters the comfortable belief that capitalist development leads to democracy. Should the liberal west brace itself for a new global "Beijing consensus" of authoritarian modernity?
Teaching Entrepreneurship in the Arab WorldAugust 14, 2007 / Stefan TheilNewsweek InternationalIf the Middle East is to have any shot of making up for decades of past stagnation, it's going to need many more kids like Hodeib, eager to build new companies and create new jobs. That's the rationale behind a small but growing movement of educators and CEOs, Western aid agencies and multinationals, royals and even Islamists, who are now trying to inject the entrepreneurial virus into the region's youth.China’s New Dictatorship DiplomacyJuly 21, 2007 / Andrew SmallForeign Affairs; New York Times; International Herald Tribune
China is often accused of supporting a string of despots, nuclear proliferators, and genocidal regimes, shielding them from international pressure and thus reversing progress on human rights and humanitarian principles. But over the last two years, Beijing has been quietly overhauling its policies toward pariah states.End of Dreams, Return of HistoryJuly 18, 2007 / Robert KaganHoover Institute Policy ReviewThe world has become normal again. The years immediately following the end of the Cold War offered a tantalizing glimpse at a new kind of international order, with nations growing together or disappearing altogether, ideological conflicts melting away, cultures intermingling through increasingly free commerce and communications.In Favour of a Selective PartnershipJuly 01, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie Berliner RepublikGermany plays a specific role for Russia and vice versa. It is apparently no coincidence that the German chancellor and the Russian President communicate in Russian and German - after all German-Russian relations have always been complex and changeable. Mutual fear and admiration, phobic defensiveness and empathetic fondness have characterized the situation on both sides - not merely in recent times, but always.
America’s Grand Design in AsiaMay 31, 2007 / Daniel TwiningWashington QuarterlyIn a dynamic Asian order featuring new centers of power, China's rise will naturally challenge Washington's ability to protect its interests in the region. In 2000, presidential candidate George W. Bush labeled China as the United States' leading strategic and military competitor. In September 2005, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick explicitly warned Beijing not to "maneuver toward a predominance of power" in Asia, suggesting that it was doing exactly that.No Wishful Thinking helps against Putin’s Power PoliticsMay 19, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichWelt am SonntagThe EU-Russia summit in Samara came to an end without any tangible results and indicates a low point in Russian-European relations. There is and will not be a new Cold War, but the peace is becoming cooler.Putin shatters the European illusionMay 18, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltThe EU-Russia Summit in Samara came to and end without tangible results. It indicates a continuing low point in Russian-European relations, which are steadily getting worse. Moscow has found itself wrapped up in its present energy power, the primary campaign of the elections in the Duma in December, and the presidential election next March. Russia is once again a presence on the world's stage and wants everyone to know. This article is available in its original German.
China, which once perceived the West's condemnation of Mugabe and sanctions against his regime as an economic opportunity, now views its involvement in Zimbabwe as a liability both for its investments and its international reputation.
Can the Development Agenda Save the Doha Round?April 01, 2007 / Andrew SmallBRIDGES Monthly ReviewWhile it is frequently bemoaned that designating the Doha Round as a 'development round' has made the negotiations more difficult, the designation may offer the only solution to the larger questions of legitimacy and credibility facing the WTO and the global trade regime.From Iran to Israel: American Choices in IraqApril 01, 2007 / Ian LesserAfkar IdéesThis article discusses the challenges facing the US in the broader Middle East, four years after the Iraq war. It highlights the implications of a more chaotic strategic environment for the region, the risk of multiple "civil wars," and the opportunity costs with regard to the Palestinian-Israeli crisis and other issues. It was written for the French publication Afkar Idées and is written in French. The full article is available for download below:
Vladimir Putin: The Gasman is comingMarch 25, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltGMF Fellow Jörg Himmelreich analyzes Russia's strategy of implementing gas and oil as weapons - and warns against falling into their propaganda maneuver regarding the U.S. missile defense system. Written for the German daily Die Welt, the article is in original German.The Ruler of the PipelineMarch 01, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichInternationale PolitikIt used to be tanks and missiles but now it is oil and gas that matter. The Kremlin is deliberately using its energy resources and the dependency of the importing countries as a tool of a new great power policy. The EU can no longer allow itself to be treated in this manner. It should use its power of demand to create a new foundation for future cooperation. China, the Unlikely Human Rights ChampionFebruary 14, 2007 / Andrew Small, Stephanie Kleine-AhlbrandtPolicy Innovations
Each time President Hu Jintao concludes a trip to Africa, he leaves a bigger Chinese footprint on the continent. Yet the imprint left by this February's visit is not just a result of the usual choreographed procession of trade deals, largesse, and south-south brotherhood. It also reflects a quiet revolution in Chinese attitudes toward non-interference, exemplified by Hu's most visible push yet for settlement of the Darfur crisis.
The lost leader of BelarusFebruary 09, 2007 / Robin ShepherdUnited Press InternationalIf the gods first make mad those whom they wish to destroy, then Alexander Lukashenko, the brutal autocrat in charge of Belarus, may be heading for problems. Since losing his last remaining ally in Europe in an acrimonious oil and gas dispute with Russia at the beginning of January, his behavior has become so erratic that many in the domestic opposition have begun to speculate he is losing control of his faculties. China Jumps InFebruary 02, 2007 / Andrew SmallInternational Herald Tribune
We are getting used to seeing new faces of Chinese diplomacy and on President Hu Jintao's latest trip to Africa we will see the unlikeliest of all. In making his most visible push for the settlement of the Darfur crisis, Hu will signal a quiet revolution in Chinese attitudes to sovereignty and noninterference, and position China as the protector of the repressed citizens of the region.
Why We Need A New Transatlantic OstpolitikFebruary 01, 2007 / Andrew SmallDie ZeitIt is time for a debate across the Atlantic about a new Eastern policy. The Russia we face today is a different one than what we hoped for. EU and NATO policy toward an enlarged Europe's new neighborhood needs to be rethought. And the United States and Europe need to get their act together on energy policy. With leadership changes coming up in Paris, London and Washington, the time is ripe to get out our laptops and debate the framework for a new policy. Europe in the Era of GazpromJanuary 12, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDer TagesspiegelThe EU-Commission's "Strategic Energy Report" contains many feasible suggestions for improving competition conditions within the European energy market, promoting environmental protection, as well as developing renewable energy. These objectives provide, without a doubt, indispensable elements of a common European energy policy considered essential in order to protect the survival of the human race on our planet.
Strong response to Putin’s Russia overdueJanuary 09, 2007 / Robin ShepherdFinancial TimesAs Russia and Belarus sought to blame each other on Monday over the suspension of oil supplies through the northern leg of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Poland and Germany, Europe might well have paused to take stock of its own share of responsibility for the latest threat to its energy security.
The New Great Game: Why the Bush administration has embraced IndiaDecember 20, 2006 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardThree recent events illuminate the contours and fault lines of Asia's emerging strategic landscape, amid the lengthening shadows cast by China's growing power.Russian Subversion in the CrimeaNovember 03, 2006 / Taras KuzioJane's Intelligence DigestRussia's subversive tactics in supporting separatism among ethnic Russians in the Crimea and eastern Ukraine are long standing, and Kiev's ability to launch counter-measures are hampered.Putin’s Russia fails its own testOctober 20, 2006 / Robin ShepherdInternational Herald TribuneFor entirely understandable reasons, recent events in Russia have prompted a tidal wave of criticism against President Vladimir Putin's style of government.Germany’s Russia Policy Following the Murder of Anna PolitkovskayaOctober 16, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDziennikPresident Putin's recent visit to Germany was overshadowed by the murder of Russian journalist Anna Politkovskaya of just a few days before. In the subsequent press conference, after only a few opening remarks, Chancellor Merkel demanded an explanation for the killing. Putin's cynical assertion that the murderous act damaged Russia more than the supposedly unimportant work of the journalist horrified the German media. At state visits in Dresden and Munich, German protesters waved banners depicting President Putin as a murderer.
India is more than BollywoodSeptember 29, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDer TagesspiegelThe Indian elephant is rising - slowly, but determined. In the public sphere and the foreign political arena, India is still in the shadow of China. At the same time, there is no doubt that in the newly emerging global order at the beginning of the 21st century India is becoming a new actor with crucial global significance.America is pursuing a grand design in AsiaSeptember 25, 2006 / Daniel TwiningFinancial TimesAsia’s strong states will shape the future of international politics more than the weak states and terrorists of Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon.Towards a Better DealAugust 01, 2006 / Ann TutwilerGlobal Subsidies Intiative, Sudsidy Watch, Issue 3The crash of the World Trade Organization (WTO) talks was greeted with muted cheers by some protected farmers in wealthy countries, some even buying new tractors to celebrate yet another failure to produce a more efficient and just global marketplace.A Question of Destiny in the 21st CenturyJuly 14, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltThe main topic of the G8 summit in St. Petersburg will be the question of energy security. How can the peaceful worldwide distribution of nonrenewable energy resources, such as oil and natural gas, be secured? The answer to this question will decisively shape the global order of the 21st century. (In original German and English translation)Russia’s Shadow EmpireMay 11, 2006 / Ana Palacio, Daniel TwiningThe Washington PostSince 2003, democratic revolutions in Ukraine and Georgia have dealt strategic blows to the ambition of Russia's leaders to reconstitute the former Soviet empire by retaining political and military suzerainty over their weaker neighbors. But Russia's imperial pretensions along its periphery linger.Looking for a Stability Pact for the Southern CaucususFebruary 09, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichNeue Züricher ZeitungGermany is heavily engaged in Georgia. At the same time, Germany does not have a comprehensive foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus.Putin’s Power PoliticsJanuary 16, 2006 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly Standard Volume 011, Issue 17IN A WORLD OF AMERICAN preponderance, European integration, and Asian ascent, it is sometimes hard to take Russia seriously as a great power.Becoming sober again; To Romanticize or Destruct: Germany has yet to find a realistic relationship with RussiaJanuary 15, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDer TagesspiegelDuring centuries of a shared past with a large variety of ties, Germans have sometimes had romanticized notions of Russia as a mythical place spared from modernity’s troubles. Instead of this misplaced German sentimentality, Germany should act upon sobriety, common sense, and rationality when dealing with Russia.Mother mercantilismJanuary 01, 2006 / Jack ThurstonProspect MagazineTo leaven the mood at the opening session of the WTO ministerial conference in Hong Kong in mid-December, Pascal Lamy, the WTO’s newly installed director general, pulled a magic wand from his breast pocket. Progress has been so slow and the main protagonists dug in to such seemingly irreconcilable positions that Lamy, who has the unenviable task of brokering a final deal, could be forgiven for resorting to sorcery.
But if he had been looking for a prop to sum up the overall mood of the delegates and observers arriving in Hong Kong, Lamy might well have brandished a stethoscope. After the acrimonious walkout by developing countries at the last summit in Cancún in 2003, the main objective for the WTO this time around was survival. The diminishing of expectations to such a low level was profoundly depressing, particularly in a year when the British government threw the weight of its twin presidencies of the G8 and the EU behind the trade justice movement.
The good news is that the WTO did survive Hong Kong, and its 149 members agreed a text which includes a small measure of progress towards a final deal. The new text is less than spectacular, but everyone agreed to keep talking, and to hold a Hong Kong 2 in Geneva in the spring. The bad news is that there is an enormous amount still to do, and not much time in which to do it.
The EU delegation came to Hong Kong expecting the worst. In the late summer "bra wars," Peter Mandelson had flunked his first major test as EU trade commissioner, and over the months that followed, the US consistently outmanoeuvred the EU in the build-up to Hong Kong. If America's multibillion-dollar cotton subsidies, so crippling to poor west African farmers, had made the US the villain at Cancún, it did not seem impossible that fortress Europe would carry the can for a potentially fatal breakdown at Hong Kong. This is because progress in agriculture, the sector of the world economy most heavily distorted by trade barriers and most important to developing countries, has become the prerequisite for progress in other areas like manufactured goods and services. Brazil, the world’s most competitive agricultural exporter and leader of the powerful G20 grouping of developing countries, recently turned its fire away from US cotton, corn and soybean subsidies and towards Europe’s farm tariffs.
Mandelson’s negotiating position has not been helped by a French government whose leaders – from President Chirac down – seem to relish the chance to strut on the world stage and belittle EU institutions by threatening to veto any trade deal which might require shaving a little of the fat from Europe’s bloated farm subsidy programmes. US negotiators face exactly the same kind of opposition from an increasingly protectionist congress, but the difference is that for the most part congress has had the good grace to refrain from using the handcuffs in such a public manner.
Facing isolation, Mandelson’s strategy in the early exchanges at Hong Kong was to go on the offensive. To the point of obsession, he criticised US "food aid" (see "Aid-dumping," Prospect July 2005), arguing that it serves the narrow interests of American farmers and aid charities more than the needs of the world's hungry. In a more subtle and effective move, he challenged the US, Japan and middle-income countries, including Brazil, to match the EU’s unilateral move to completely open its markets to the 50 least developed countries for all products other than armaments. Economists tell us that the benefits of trade liberalisation always outweigh the costs. While this may be the case as far as economics is concerned, with politics the reverse is closer to the truth.
Gerhard Schröder takes a job on Gazprom's Baltic pipeline — this news raises an ethics question for retired politicians. It also raises another, more important, question: does this pipeline really serve Germany’s geopolitical interests?
The case for ending subsidies is yet to be wonDecember 06, 2005 / John AudleyFinancial TimesOne week from now, trade negotiators from more than 150 countries will meet in Hong Kong to begin the last leg of the first trade round dedicated to promoting economic development and poverty reduction. They will be besieged by the motley circus of media, business people, non-governmental organisations and protesters that has followed the World Trade Organisation since Seattle in 1999. A Sensational CoupNovember 23, 2005 / John AudleyFinancial Times DeutschlandInstead of enlarging the Security Council, EU members should agree on two instead of three non-permanent seats. The open seat could be assigned to the group of Asia and Africa, showing Europe’s willingness for just representation. Without any additional changes to the UN Charta necessary, this proposition could be more easily adopted than other reform proposals.Base PoliticsNovember 01, 2005 / Alexander CooleyForeign Affairs Volume 84 No. 6Not since modern Japan moved on to the world stage a century ago has a non-western power emerged with such potential to transform the global order as China today. The Pentagon sees a budding rival military power; the US Congress views Chinese acquisitions of US companies as a national security threat; and Mario Monti, the former European commissioner, laments that Europe could one day be little more than "a suburb of Shanghai".
