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On Defense, France Bites the Bullet, But Avoids Strategic Insolvency May 7, 2013
Iceland’s Recovery Saga Presents Opportunities for Brussels, Washington—and Beijing May 6, 2013
Which Way Forward for Europe’s Hybrid Regimes? May 2, 2013
The Arab Revolts and the Liberal Order May 2, 2013
Events
GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
News & Analysis Archive
Unfinished Transitions: Challenges and Opportunities of the EU’s and Turkey’s Responses to the “Arab Spring”January 25, 2013 / Emiliano AlessandriIstituto Affari Internazionali
As the geopolitical implications of the Arab uprisings become clearer, the EU and Turkey should adopt a more lucid and nuanced
approach to democracy and a more explicitly political response to the “Arab Spring.”Book Review: Turkey in the 21st Century: Quest for a New Foreign PolicyJanuary 08, 2013 / Emiliano Alessandri
Turkey in the 21st Century: Quest for a New Foreign Policy is a welcome addition to the fast-growing literature in English on Turkish foreign policy.Why Syria’s regional spillovers could prompt interventionOctober 11, 2012 / Ian LesserChristian Science Monitor
Turkey's forced landing of a Syrian passenger jet from Moscow suspected of carrying military cargo is the latest example of regional spillover from the Syria crisis. Why the World Needs AmericaJune 14, 2012 / Kati SuominenGlobal Trends 2030
The global economic order – the post-war framework of global governance built on rules-based institutions and free and open markets – is largely America’s creation. It has been the midwife of growth and globalization that have produced prosperity around the world.
The Mexico challengeJune 12, 2012 / Daniel M. KlimanThe Indian Express
When the G-20 meets at Los Cabos, Mexico, this month, India will share the limelight with the world’s leading developed and emerging market economies. In the G-20 and beyond, India stands at a foreign policy crossroads.
The Rise of the Rest and the Return of Spheres of InfluenceMay 28, 2012 / Minxin PeiGT2030.com
The question being asked most often today is whether rising powers, such as India, China, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, will help maintain the post-WWII liberal order by contributing to its costly maintenance.This may not be the right question to answer.
Ian Lesser: Turkey Plays Critical Role Between East and West on Syria, IranApril 12, 2012 / Ian LesserFrance 24
Ian Lesser joins France24's "The Interview" to discuss Turkey's pivotal role in the Middle East, including the Syria crisis and Iran.Turkey’s Vision for 2012 and Beyond: Davutoglu’s Washington VisitFebruary 17, 2012 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post
Davutoğlu's 2012 visit to Washington once again showcased Turkey's self-confidence as a rising regional power and vision for its neighborhood.
Turkish Foreign Minister Dr. Davutoğlu Comes to WashingtonFebruary 08, 2012 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu's visit to Washington this week comes at a pivotal time in U.S.-Turkish relations.
France24 Interviews Ian Lesser on Greek CrisisNovember 03, 2011 / Ian LesserFrance24
Did Greece just precipitate its exit from the euro? Options are slim should George Papandreou’s gambit fail. François Picard’s panel argues over the relative merits of announcing – on the eve of a G-20 Summit - a referendum on the EU bailout plan. ...Turkey’s Bold About-Face on SyriaNovember 03, 2011 / Joshua W. WalkerChristian Science Monitor
Turkey's support for Syrian insurgents reverses detente with Damascus. Its about-face can reinforce an Arab League agreement with Syria to end violence, and reassure the West of its commitment to NATO values. But is the break an exception, or a broad change in foreign policy?...
Hanging Between Hope and Fear: Italians at the Heart of International CrisisOctober 25, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriIstituto Affari Internazionali
Italy’s public opinion seems more open and daring of its political elites on some hot issues of the international agenda. Although increasingly concerned about the economic context and for the future of the European integration process, Italians seems rather optimist about stabilizing the situation in Libya and strongly in favor of promoting democracy in the Arab world, even if this entails the risk of greater short-term instability.
Erdogan’s African AdventureAugust 29, 2011 / Nicholas Siegel
Turkey's prime minister Erdogan has traveled to Mogadishu as the first Western head of state in twenty years. This reckless gesture illustrates his daring vision: Erdogan's Turkey as a regional broker whose influence extends deep into Asia and Africa. And who, according to this vision, will lose out? Europe.
Commentary on “Yet NATO remains central to Turkey?s wider regional role”June 23, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri
Sinan Ülgen’s argument that Turkey is ‘broadening its reach’ as opposed to ‘turning its back on the West’ is a welcome distinction, and one which helps us more accurately to grasp the new trends in Turkish foreign policy while refocusing the debate away from ideology towards strategy. EU’s strategy on Political and Security issues in the four seas: a multilateral approachJune 22, 2011 / Niels AnnenThe EU4Seas ProjectImproving the conditions for the overall success of her policies in the four seas (the Baltic Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Black Sea, and the Caspian Sea) will test the EU's ability to implement a more coherent foreign policy, writes Niels Annen.Gates was far too nice about Nato’s failingsJune 15, 2011 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial Times
Last week Robert Gates gave a valedictory “shock and awe” speech in Brussels in which he excoriated the military weaknesses of Nato’s European members. But matters are a lot worse than he thinks, says Constanze StelzenmüllerSyria, Libya and the Future of NatoJune 15, 2011 / Stephen SzaboKCRW
Syria is conducting repression of its own people without interference, and, in Libya, Moammar Gadhafi is hanging on longer than expected. Is NATO prepared to protect civilians for humanitarian reasons? Stephen Szabo participates in an interview with KCRW.Turkey’s Global StrategyJune 07, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri, Joshua W. WalkerLSE
After nearly a decade in power, Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has grown increasingly confident in its foreign policy, prompting observers to wondered aloud whether the country might be leaving "the West," forcing that group to confront the question "who lost Turkey?"
UN Climate Talks and Power Politics: It’s Not about the TemperatureMay 25, 2011 / Daniel Twining
Must U.S. climate diplomacy be a wedge rather than a bridge between the United States and key international partners? GMF Senior Fellow for Asia, Daniel Twining's testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on climate diplomacy.
Turkey’s Future Reforms and the European UnionMay 24, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriTurkish Policy Quarterly
The European Union (EU) has played a critical role in Turkey’s reform process since the end of the Cold War but over time it has become less central a factor in Turkey’s internal transformation. The goals of “Europeanization” and “democratization” are no longer fully intertwined and the ruling elite seems to be focused on power consolidation just as much as on democratic consolidation. Iran and Turkey After Egypt: Time for Regional Realignments?April 19, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri
Both Iran and Turkey have a major stake in how the political landscape in North Africa and the Middle East is reshaped in the months ahead. While regional uprisings (with the possible exception of a resurgence of Kurdish separatism) do not necessarily threaten the stability of the Turkish state, Iran is experiencing its own waves of protests.Understanding The Arab and Mediterranean RevolutionsApril 12, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri
Well before the recent unrest in North Africa and the Middle East, GMF has been a leader in conducting and disseminating research and analysis on Mediterranean political, economic, and security issues. Lafond debates London Conference on LibyaApril 01, 2011 / Francois Lafond
GMF's François Lafond participates in a France24 debate on the recent London Conference on Libya.Germany’s unhappy abstention from leadershipMarch 28, 2011 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial Times
“The world knows it can rely on us,” said Guido Westerwelle in October, when Germany had secured its goal of a non-permanent seat on the UN Security Council. But can the world rely on Germany when it counts?The White House’s three worst assumptions on LibyaMarch 21, 2011 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign Policy
Now that the United States has joined the French and British in attacking Qaddafi's forces in Libya, Will Inboden suggests the Obama administration merits support. However, he admits it might have now come too late.The Turkish model tested by the Arab RevolutionsMarch 20, 2011 / Emiliano AlessandriAffarinternazionali.it
GMF's Emiliano Alessandri suggests that while Turkey can be a source of inspiration for the reform movements in the Arab world, regional leadership emanating from Ankara might not be the logical consequence of democratization in the region.Francois Lafond on Unrest in EgyptMarch 11, 2011 / Francois LafondFrance 24
François Lafond participates in debate on the recent turmoil in Egypt and the Arab world, and on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 2011 Munich Conference remarks.
How trade could help a post-Mubarak Egypt succeedFebruary 10, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
The fate of the Egyptian government remains unclear, but one thing is certain: The country's economy is the immediate casualty.Will Turkey remain an American ally?December 14, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post
The headline stories from WikiLeaks of the last few days have focused attention on American foreign policy, with a particular focus on the strains within and with historic allies. The central role of Turkey in these revelations has caused further apprehension in U.S.-Turkish relations at an already tense moment in the alliance.
A Climate Conference ReaderDecember 01, 2010 / Joshua W. Walker
GMF is sending a contingent of climate change experts to the COP16 United Nations Climate Change Conference this week. A brief Q&A with one of our program associates outlines expectations, incentives, and the key players at the conference.
The United States and Turkey: Can They Agree to Disagree?November 16, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerBelfer Center
Given the headline-grabbing actions of Turkey this summer with regard to both Israel and Iran, a powerful narrative has emerged in which the West has "lost" Turkey. But this narrative ignores the process of democratization in Turkey and the domestic pressures facing a populist Justice and Development Party (AKP) government.
America’s Silence By DefaultOctober 28, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerGlobal Post
As an American who has just returned from a series of discussions on international relations and America’s role in the Levant and the South Caucuses, I’m left with a sinking feeling. It was eye-opening to see the discrepancy between America’s vibrant debates at home over the upcoming mid-term elections and virtual silence on U.S. foreign policy priorities in this region of the world.
The Return of GlobalizationOctober 21, 2010 / Kati Suominen, Gary HufbauerForeign Policy
As the G-20 finance ministers gather in South Korea this weekend in advance of November's big meeting, they will surely notice that globalization is back -- almost. The trajectory of world trade over the last two years looks V-shaped: a drop of 12.2 percent in 2009 followed by a projected gain of 13.5 percent in 2010. Can they agree to cooperate before protectionist urges tear them apart?Turkey Drifts AwaySeptember 24, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Add Turkey to the Obama administration’s lengthening list of foreign-policyheadaches.Global opinion disapproves of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, but differs on how to stop itSeptember 17, 2010 / Bruce StokesYale Global
In a speech September 8 to the US Council on Foreign Relations, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proudly asserted that “through classic shoe-leather diplomacy, we have built a broad consensus that will hold Iran accountable to its obligations if it continues its defiance” of the international community and builds a nuclear arsenal.
Uranium swap declaration improved Turkey’s handMay 19, 2010 / Özgür ÜnlühisarcıklıGlobal Post
The joint declaration of the ministers of foreign affairs of Turkey, Iran and Brazil signed on Monday came as a surprise to the international community. But the United States' reaction to the uranium swap agreement, and the Turkish interpretation of this reaction, once more highlighted the gap between the U.S. and Turkey in their approaches to what is one of the most important issues on the transatlantic agenda.Good NeighborsMarch 29, 2010 / Jörg HimmelreichInternationale PolitikFor decades, suspicion and outright animosity characterized relations between Turkey and its neighbors. The country's allies were to be found only in the West. Recently, however, the Turkish government has managed to implement a foreign policy shift of historic, even revolutionary proportions. Brussels should put to use the opportunities resulting from Turkey's international realignment.Merkel wird den Frust der Türken spürenMarch 28, 2010 / Niels Annen, Thomas StraubhaarDie WeltThe EU needs an economically prosperous and politically strong Turkey. Therefore, the EU should search for ways to remove the blockades that characterize the ongoing negotiations for a EU membership of Turkey.Der Zorn auf die Griechen wird die Türken treffenMarch 27, 2010 / Thomas StraubhaarDie WeltIt will become an historical irony that the Euro crisis provoked by Greece will hit Turkey hardest. The mood in Western Europe is against a further enlargement by economically weaker countries. Therefore, a fast end of the negotiations and a Turkish EU membership has become more difficult to achieve.The crisis between the United States and Israel was overdueMarch 17, 2010 / Niels AnnenDIE ZEITEver since Israeli Minister of the Interior Eli Ishai announced the building of new settlements in East Jerusalem, relations between Israel and the United States have been strained. In this analysis, Niels Annen offers a different perspective from Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff's article that called the settlements a "wrong dispute at the wrong time," and not worth risking the U.S.-Israeli relationship. Annen instead emphasizes that it's time to address big issues like settlements now, and that the U.S. is interested in finding a peaceful solution for the region for more than one reason.Settlements are not worth this fightMarch 16, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDIE ZEITFinally the Americans have called out Israel on its settlement policy. It took the embarrassment of a Vice President for the U.S. to finally say: enough is enough. While this move may be a milestone in the overdue recalibration of U.S. policy vis a vis Israel it does not help the peace process. The new pecking orderDecember 27, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDer Tagesspiegel
Copenhagen has shown the globe to be in transition. The multipolar world may be arriving, but so far multipolarity means chaos. In such moments of transition it is not quite clear where power rests.Lessons of the Copenhagen discordDecember 21, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffFinancial TimesIt will be discussed for some time whether the Copenhagen accord represents an unsatisfactory compromise or an unmitigated failure. Whatever the ultimate answer, there are some preliminary lessons that can be drawn from a memorably chaotic global gathering.
What to Read on Turkish PoliticsNovember 01, 2009 / Ian LesserForeign PolicyThe reach of Turkey's cultural and foreign policies extends from the Balkans to Western China, and the country plays an increasingly important role in debates about the future of both Europe and the Middle East.Opinion: A hidden deal on Iran sanctions?October 17, 2009 / Ian LesserGlobal PostFor those hoping the international community might finally be getting more serious about possible sanctions against Iran for its continued defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions, the headlines this week were downright discouraging. “In Face of Sanctions Push, China Warms Up to Iran,” The New York Times declared on Friday. “China Lauds Ties with Iran,” according to Thursday's Wall Street Journal. And, as Charles Krauthammer noted in his column in Friday’s Washington Post, his own paper said on Wednesday: “Russian Not Budging on Iran Sanctions; Clinton Unable to Sway Counterpart.”Opinion: The Turkey-Armenia detenteSeptember 05, 2009 / Ian LesserThe Global Post
This week, Turkey and Armenia announced their intention to establish diplomatic relations, open the closed border between the two countries and launch a series of talks and confidence-building measures aimed at resolving long-standing disputes and fostering closer cooperation.
Black Sea WatershedAugust 11, 2008 / Ian LesserWashington PostIn weeks and years past, each of us has argued on this page that Moscow was pursuing a policy of regime change toward Georgia and its pro-Western, democratically elected president, Mikheil Saakashvili. We predicted that, absent strong and unified Western diplomatic involvement, we were headed toward a war. Now, tragically, an escalation of violence in South Ossetia has culminated in a full-scale Russian invasion of Georgia. The West, and especially the United States, could have prevented this war. We have arrived at a watershed moment in the West's post-Cold War relations with Russia.
Democracy and a Piece of ClothingJuly 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffPostGlobal, Washington PostFrance has rejected a citizenship application from a burqa-wearing Moroccan woman on the grounds that she has "insufficiently assimilated" to French culture. Should cultural assimilation be a requirement for citizenshipA War The West Must StopJuly 15, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe Washington PostThere is war in the air between Georgia and Russia. Such a war could destabilize a region critical for Western energy supplies and ruin relations between Russia and the West. A conflict over Georgia could become an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. How they respond could become a test of the potential commander-in-chief qualities of Barack Obama and John McCain.Turkey, Closer to the U.S. than EuropeJune 01, 2008 / Michael WerzHeinrich Böll StiftungIf you compare the geographical distances from Ankara, Los Angeles is 11,000 Kilometers removed, whereas Berlin is a mere one-fifth of that distance. This proximity Germany and Turkey should offer great opportunities to each other's societies. But if one compares the political debates vis-à-vis Turkey in Germany and the United States, the relationship of distance and proximity reverses itself. (Written in German)
Supping at the WTO’s Last Chance SaloonMarch 27, 2008 / Michael WerzEuropean Voice, Editorial & OpinionThe global credit squeeze has made the world's economics ministers understandably jittery. But the crisis unfolding over world trade is far more serious. With the Doha Round of talks at the WTO at a standstill, now the unthinkable could happen. The global trading system may be abandoned.ACPs and EPAs: where’s the beef?January 03, 2008 / Michael WerzTrade Negotiations InsightsNow that the Doha round appears to be stirring back to life, some of the world's poorest countries should be looking to multilateralism to protect their interests with a renewed sense of urgency.Time to Talk to IranDecember 05, 2007 / Robert KaganWashington PostRegardless of what one thinks about the National Intelligence Estimate's conclusion that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 -- and there is much to question in the report -- its practical effects are indisputable. The Bush administration cannot take military action against Iran during its remaining time in office, or credibly threaten to do so, unless it is in response to an extremely provocative Iranian action.Global trends, regional consequences: Wider strategic influences on the Black SeaNovember 27, 2007 / Ian LesserThe wider Black Sea area is rapidly becoming a focal point of interest for a number of extra-regional actors that can also be considered, in view of their active involvement, to be stakeholders. As Ian Lesser, the author of this new Xenophon Paper suggests, the Black Sea is strategically significant because it is an important part of the European security environment.Beyond Suspicion: Rethinking U.S.-Turkish RelationsOctober 19, 2007 / Ian LesserWoodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Southeast Europe ProjectDr. Ian Lesser, a senior Transatlantic Fellow at GMF, has written a new book analyzing the current challenges facing the U.S.-Turkish relationship, examining the growing friction between the United States and Turkey, and exploring ways to rebuild and reshape bilateral ties. It is available for download as a PDF.
Teaching Entrepreneurship in the Arab WorldAugust 14, 2007 / Stefan TheilNewsweek InternationalIf the Middle East is to have any shot of making up for decades of past stagnation, it's going to need many more kids like Hodeib, eager to build new companies and create new jobs. That's the rationale behind a small but growing movement of educators and CEOs, Western aid agencies and multinationals, royals and even Islamists, who are now trying to inject the entrepreneurial virus into the region's youth.Can the Development Agenda Save the Doha Round?April 01, 2007 / Stefan TheilBRIDGES Monthly ReviewWhile it is frequently bemoaned that designating the Doha Round as a 'development round' has made the negotiations more difficult, the designation may offer the only solution to the larger questions of legitimacy and credibility facing the WTO and the global trade regime.From Iran to Israel: American Choices in IraqApril 01, 2007 / Ian LesserAfkar IdéesThis article discusses the challenges facing the US in the broader Middle East, four years after the Iraq war. It highlights the implications of a more chaotic strategic environment for the region, the risk of multiple "civil wars," and the opportunity costs with regard to the Palestinian-Israeli crisis and other issues. It was written for the French publication Afkar Idées and is written in French. The full article is available for download below:
Portugal and the Southern Mediterranean: Transatlantic Interest and StrategiesMarch 06, 2007 / Ian LesserLuso-American FoundationWith relations between the Muslim world and the West in periodic crisis, the southern Mediterranean has become a strategic concern on both sides of the Atlantic.Gesucht: Magischer BundNovember 25, 2006 / Constanze StelzenmuellerDie ZEITAt this year's NATO Summit in Riga, coalition partners are debating how to best modernize NATO, but it is a moot question, especially when coalition partners are stumbling in the military campaign in Afghanistan. This article is in written in German.
Turkey, the United States and the Delusion of GeopoliticsNovember 14, 2006 / Ian LesserSurvivalTurkey and Turkish-US relations have been prisoners of a narrow concept of geopolitics. The key questions are not geographic - whether Turkey is a bridge or a barrier, a flank or a front - but how Turkey will act, and whether Turkish and American policies are convergent or divergent.A Question of Destiny in the 21st CenturyJuly 14, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltThe main topic of the G8 summit in St. Petersburg will be the question of energy security. How can the peaceful worldwide distribution of nonrenewable energy resources, such as oil and natural gas, be secured? The answer to this question will decisively shape the global order of the 21st century. (In original German and English translation)Abbas’s Palestinian referendum offers only false hopeJune 19, 2006 / Robin ShepherdThe Financial TimesGood news from the Palestinian territories is a rarecommodity, so rare that there is an understandable tendency to overstate its significance when it comes.Contain Iran: Admit Israel to NATOFebruary 21, 2006 / Robin ShepherdThe Washington PostThe choice of how to respond to Iran’s growing threat to the West in general and Israel in particular is not an easy one.Looking for a Stability Pact for the Southern CaucususFebruary 09, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichNeue Züricher ZeitungGermany is heavily engaged in Georgia. At the same time, Germany does not have a comprehensive foreign policy in the Southern Caucasus.