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On Defense, France Bites the Bullet, But Avoids Strategic Insolvency May 7, 2013
Iceland’s Recovery Saga Presents Opportunities for Brussels, Washington—and Beijing May 6, 2013
Which Way Forward for Europe’s Hybrid Regimes? May 2, 2013
The Arab Revolts and the Liberal Order May 2, 2013
Events
GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
News & Analysis Archive
Geostrategic Annual ReviewApril 30, 2013 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLe Monde
In Le Monde’s annual issue on the state of the world, Bilan Géostratégie 2013, GMF's Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer argues that economic & geopolitical trends are reshaping transatlantic cooperation.The Karzai We NeedFebruary 21, 2013 / Mark R. JacobsonCNN
Afghanistan needs Karzai the statesman: the Karzai who can work with both the international community and the Afghan people, not just play one against the other. Time to Breathe New Life into Ties with EuropeFebruary 19, 2013 / Peter SpardingCNN
For decades advocates on both sides of the Atlantic have been arguing for a more comprehensive Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership with the EU. Now it finally seems within reach.A New Era for Transatlantic Trade LeadershipFebruary 13, 2013 / Jim Kolbe, Jennifer Hillman, Bruce StokesGMF & ECIPE
President Obama announced plans for a free trade agreement between the US and Europe during his annual State of the Union address. GMF publication, A New Era for Transatlantic Trade Leadership, calls for the creation of a barrier-free transatlantic market as part of ambitious recommendations for a new U.S.-EU trade agenda.Five Myths About Obama’s Drone WarFebruary 08, 2013 / Mark R. Jacobsonwashingtonpost.com
While the use of drone warfare has come of age under Obama, whether he comes to be defined by this weapon is very much a political question.Testimony on Turkey before the Canadian SenateFebruary 06, 2013 / Emiliano AlessandriParliament of Canada ParlVU
On February 6, 2013, Senior Transatlantic Fellow Emiliano Alessandri gave a testimony on Turkey before the Canadian Senate. During this meeting, Emiliano was able to provide his insight on economic and political developments in the Republic of Turkey, their regional and global influences, the resulting implications for Canadian interests and opportunities, and other matters of interest. America Rediscovers the AtlanticJanuary 28, 2013 / Ian LesserAspenia
Most Europeans will be pleased with the re-election of President Obama after a campaign that many in Europe never realized was such a close run thing. A Big Year for Transatlantic Ties?January 14, 2013 / Bruce StokesCNN.com
The next twelve months could prove key for both security and economic ties between Europe and the United States.For US and Europe, governance by brinkmanshipJanuary 14, 2013 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffChristian Science Monitor
Following this practice of governance by brinkmanship, the United States has Europeanized its crisis response by artificially erecting a number of cliffs, obstacles, and deadlines.Look East, Act East: transatlantic agendas in the Asia PacificDecember 19, 2012 / Peter Sparding, Andrew SmallEUISS
Latest policy brief by GMF Fellows details transatlantic agendas in the region.Two ways US and Europe can boost their economiesDecember 13, 2012 / Peter SpardingChristian Science Monitor
The US and Europe now have two great opportunities to give their economies a much needed boost. One is to successfully navigate their debt mountains and fiscal cliffs. The other is to finally negotiate a US-EU free trade agreement.GMF’s Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer Testifies before French National AssemblyDecember 11, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer
Dr. Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer testified before the Foreign Affairs Committee on America’s foreign policy agenda.U.S. has work cut out to make sure Afghan forces are combat readyDecember 10, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.com
US has a challenging task as it prepares Afghan security forces for 2014 drawdown.Rethinking Poland in the Second TermDecember 03, 2012 / Andrew A. MichtaThe American Interest
Poland’s dynamic economy and growing geopolitical weight make it an increasingly important European ally for the United States.A World RecastNovember 30, 2012 / Simon SerfatyRowman and Littlefield
New book by GMF’s Simon Serfaty argues Western era’s passing is exaggerated as an irreversible decline relative to an irresistible rise of other powers.Afghan Security Returns to the GrassrootsNovember 30, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe National Interest
Influential village and tribal leaders still command great legitimacy and act as interlocutors between the government and the local people.China’s Overreach, America’s OpportunityNovember 21, 2012 / Daniel TwiningAmerican Foreign Policy Council
Growing wariness of Chinese power and penetration now being evidenced in Southeast Asian states has created considerable possibilities for American policy.Can Obama Get Afghanistan Right in Second Term?November 14, 2012 / Javid AhmadCNN.com
Kabul is once again vying for Washington’s attention, now that the U.S. presidential elections are over.The U.S.-China ResetNovember 14, 2012 / Minxin PeiThe New York Times 
China needs a new approach to stabilize the deteriorating security relationship with the United States.Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer Testifies on State of Transatlantic Relations before French SenateNovember 13, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer
In her testimony before the French Senate Committee for Foreign Affairs, Defense and Armed Forces, Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, GMF's Paris Office director, discussed transatlantic ties and future foreign and defense challenges facing the United States.European Relief and JittersNovember 09, 2012 / Constanze StelzenmuellerInternational Herald Tribune
Americans and Europeans need each other now more than ever. And, frankly, it’s time for Europeans to step up and say: “Yes, we can, too.”Les Enjeux Diplomatiques Font ConsensusNovember 08, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLe Monde
GMF's Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer argues that Obama has redefined U.S. leadership and that Libya is a precursor of future military operations.A Great Game Of Spear And ShieldNovember 08, 2012 / Daniel TwiningOutlook
A strengthening of America's ties with India will trigger shifts in the power paradigm in the age of China.
Untapped Trilateralism: Common Economic and Security Interests of the EU, the US and ChinaNovember 08, 2012 / Andrew SmallEUECRAN
Ties between the EU, China, and the U.S. are more interlinked than ever but a joint collaborative response remains elusive.Transatlantic Public Opinion on Immigration: Important Lessons for PolicymakersOctober 26, 2012 / Hamutal BernsteinMigration Policy Practice
Sharing the Transatlantic Trends: Immigration results with high-level policymakers and a wide range of stakeholders over the last five years has revealed a number of notable general trends that should inform policymaking and decision-making.Avoiding Another Afghan Civil WarOctober 22, 2012 / Javid AhmadThe Daily Beast
Once Washington emerges from the election cycle, it must revisit its Afghan war policy and develop contingencies for a post-2014 Afghanistan. TFMI Edition of Migration Policy Practice is OutSeptember 19, 2012 / Hamutal Bernstein
The Transatlantic Forum on Migration and Immigration edition of the International Organization of Migration’s Migration Policy Practice has been published.Transatlantic Relations Four Years Later: The Elusive Quest for a Strategic VisionSeptember 14, 2012 / Emiliano AlessandriThe International Spectator
The transatlantic tensions of the Bush years are behind us but the future of transatlantic relations remains uncertain at the closing of the Obama term.Mark Jacobson on BBC News Discusses Security in Libya After AttacksSeptember 13, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonBBC News
Mark Jacobson, Senior Transatlantic Fellow for Foreign Policy and Civil Society, talks to BBC News about security risks after U.S. ambassador Christopher Stevens and three other Americans were killed in a consulate attack in Libya.
The Sunshine State’s Rotten Tomato Fight With MexicoAugust 24, 2012 / Jim KolbeWall Street Journal
Florida growers are demanding protection that would cost thousands of U.S. jobs and risk a trade war with America's second-largest export market.Bleak Prospects for No-Fly Zone as Proxy War Grips SyriaAugust 14, 2012 / Ian LesserDeutsche Welle
GMF's Ian Lesser talks to Deutsche Welle about possible military action to stem the violence in Syria as the conflict enters its 18th month in the Middle East nation.Is the American Dream Over?August 10, 2012 / Martin MichelotAtlantico.fr
Generation Y has been hardest hit by the economic crisis, which has prompted observers to wonder whether the American Dream as we know it is over.Food crisis: a new normal?July 26, 2012 / Jonathan M. WhiteGlobalPost 
Food shortages are a chronic problem in many parts of the world. Over a billion people worldwide suffer from chronic hunger. America the AbsentJuly 09, 2012 / Kati SuominenForeign Policy
Instead of powering the world economy, emerging markets remain hostage to the transatlantic economic morass. The missing ingredient? U.S. leadership.
What Next in a post-Doha World? – Lessons from EU, U.S., and Chinese Trade Policy StrategiesJune 27, 2012 / David Kleimann, Joe Guinan, Andrew SmallGlobal Governance Programme
With the WTO hamstrung and the Doha Round dead in all but name, the future directions of international trade and investment liberalisation will be largely determined by the policy strategies and initiatives of the world’s economic superpowers.
Why the World Needs AmericaJune 14, 2012 / Kati SuominenGlobal Trends 2030
The global economic order – the post-war framework of global governance built on rules-based institutions and free and open markets – is largely America’s creation. It has been the midwife of growth and globalization that have produced prosperity around the world.
The Mexico challengeJune 12, 2012 / Daniel M. KlimanThe Indian Express
When the G-20 meets at Los Cabos, Mexico, this month, India will share the limelight with the world’s leading developed and emerging market economies. In the G-20 and beyond, India stands at a foreign policy crossroads.
Why the Liberal Order Will Survive in a Post-Western WorldMay 31, 2012 / Dhruva JaishankarGT2030.com
Predicting the decline of the liberal order (often inextricably linked to narratives about the future of democracy, liberalism, free markets, peace, and global institutions) is an age-old pastime. But, first drafts of history are often destined for the rubbish bin.
Le bilan d’ObamaMay 29, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLe bilan d'Obama
GMF Paris Office Director Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer wrote a chapter on the approach and practice of war by the Obama administration, in the recently-published book Le bilan d’Obama (Presses de Sciences Po, March 2012) edited by Vincent Michelot and Olivier Richomme.
The Rise of the Rest and the Return of Spheres of InfluenceMay 28, 2012 / Minxin PeiGT2030.com
The question being asked most often today is whether rising powers, such as India, China, Brazil, South Africa, and Turkey, will help maintain the post-WWII liberal order by contributing to its costly maintenance.This may not be the right question to answer.
What Fate for Liberal Order in a Post-Western World?May 27, 2012 / Daniel TwiningGT2030.com
Over the next two decades, the relative power of major international actors will shift markedly. The NIC's draft Global Trends 2030: Alternative Worlds maps out three broad scenarios for how will the rise of the rest impact the international system.
De Hoop Scheffer talks with France 24 on U.S. troop WithdrawalMay 24, 2012 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferFrance 24
Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer was a guest on The France 24 Interview with Foreign Desk Senior Reporter Gauthier Rybinsky on December 14, 2011, She spoke on the withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq and the long term political and military implications for the U.S. foreign policy and the future of Iraq.Transatlantic Trends: Public Opinion and NATOMay 16, 2012 / Zsolt Nyiri, Joshua RaisherTransatlantic Trends
While a transatlantic opinion gap still exists on certain security topics, Transatlantic Trends revealed notable shifts that brought public opinion in the U.S. and Europe closer on key security policies.
Trade? Who Cares?May 10, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
Very few Americans volunteered trade as one of the “most important problems” facing the United States in this election year. To put this into perspective: more Americans believe in space aliens than in the dangers of the trade imbalance.Sarkozy’s exit could transform France’s world roleMay 07, 2012 / Mark R. JacobsonCNN.com
The election of the first French Socialist president since 1995 also could dramatically change France's role in the world, at a particularly sensitive time.Reports of Our DeathMay 04, 2012 / Bruce Stokes
Europeans have begun to believe that our economic problems are worse than theirs. They’re wrong.
China, the Euro Crisis and Transatlantic CooperationMay 02, 2012 / Andrew Small
In this testimony to the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, Andrew Small explains that, despite the euro crisis, the European Union has been toughening up its stance in its economic relationship with China. For the United States, the opportunities to coordinate with the EU on economic policy responses loom larger than the risks that Europe’s need for Chinese money will act as a constraint.
The West Runs Out of PowerApril 09, 2012 / Constanze StelzenmuellerPolicy Review
The challenge of the 21st century is not the weak ness of others, but the weakness of the West.
An Idea Whose Time Has ComeMarch 23, 2012 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice
The EU and the US can at last begin working on the details of creating a true transatlantic market.
Is There Life for the G20 beyond the Global Financial Crisis?February 24, 2012 / Kati Suominen, Uri Dadush
To transform from a crisis-fighter to an effective forum of global economic governance, the G20 has to confront four major challenges: build on its comparative advantages, be realistic in what it can achieve, effectively integrate emerging economies in global governance, and clarify its own structure and composition.
Turkey’s Vision for 2012 and Beyond: Davutoglu’s Washington VisitFebruary 17, 2012 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post
Davutoğlu's 2012 visit to Washington once again showcased Turkey's self-confidence as a rising regional power and vision for its neighborhood.
Fresh StartFebruary 16, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
The White House’s new trade enforcement center offers a chance to set firm guidelines in U.S.-China relations.
Turkish Foreign Minister Dr. Davutoğlu Comes to WashingtonFebruary 08, 2012 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post
Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu's visit to Washington this week comes at a pivotal time in U.S.-Turkish relations.
While America SleptFebruary 01, 2012 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
From the euro to Iran, the world is about to intrude on the nation’s slumber. And no one—the voters or the media—seems to care.
American Elections at a Time of Crisis: The Risks of IntrospectionJanuary 30, 2012 / Emiliano AlessandriAspen Institute Italy
Failing to see the global stakes of the next Presidential elections will be at America’s and the world’s peril.
EU Could Benefit from US’s Pacific focusJanuary 19, 2012 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice
Last year was a big year for US trade policy and 2012 could be more active still.
After Iraq, a New PragmatismJanuary 09, 2012 / Nicholas SiegelThe European
The Iraq War marked the end of America’s unipolar moment, and has led to a new pragmatism in U.S. foreign policy. Going forward the United States military will need to be smaller, leaner, and smarter.
de Hoop Scheffer on Regime ChangeDecember 30, 2011 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferLa CroixGMF's Paris Office Director Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer wrote an article on the long term strategic implications of the military operation in Iraq for U.S. foreign policy, “Quand l’Irak refaconne l’Amerique”, La Croix, December 30th, 2011.Obama’s Other Power ToolsNovember 30, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
The political gods have not favored progressives in recent years. The 2008 election delivered an extremely popular Democratic president, 60 Democratic votes in the Senate, and a strong majority in the House of Representatives. But all have gone downhill since then.
Dizzy yet? The pros and cons of the Asia ‘pivot’November 22, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The President has finished up a grueling trip to the Asia-Pacific region and can generally feel good about what he accomplished. Like everything this President does, however, the trip was very heavy on political spin.
Here Comes the SunNovember 17, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
The new trade talks with Japan matter. They're one of the best ways to deal with China....
Pulling U.S.-Pakistan Policy Out of the ShadowsSeptember 30, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarForeign Policy
Given the urgency of resolving the conflicted relationship between the two nominal allies and the implications for Afghanistan's development, South Asian stability, counterterrorism, and the proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction, the absence of imaginative thinking on U.S. Pakistan policy has been pretty remarkable.
A Fighting ChanceSeptember 28, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
Although constituting no major revelations, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Admiral Mike Mullen’s testimony to a Senate committee last week, in which he accused Pakistan’s government and military of exporting terrorism, has focused public attention across the US and around the world on the growing fissures in US-Pakistan ties.
Will China’s Rise Spoil the Transatlantic Relationship?September 23, 2011 / Andrew Small, Daniel M. KlimanSpiegel Online
A new survey by the German Marshall Fund finds that China's rise is leading Americans to turn their attention away from Europe and to view China as more of a threat than Europeans do. But how much do these factors threaten the trans-Atlantic relationship, and how well can it adapt to changing circumstances?
Jim Kolbe discusses the future of American foreign aid on WAMUSeptember 20, 2011 / Jim KolbeWAMUOne year ago this week, President Obama elevated global development as a "core pillar" of U.S. foreign policy, alongside diplomacy and defense. But as Congress and the White House struggle to find billions to cut from the federal budget, some advocates worry Washington's commitment to reducing global poverty is wavering.
The U.S. Public Wants DisengagementSeptember 15, 2011 / Bruce StokesCNN World, YaleGlobalThose who criticized American unilateral interventionism under President George W. Bush may soon have an opportunity to see how they like American isolationism, especially if a Republican recaptures the White House in 2012.
GMF’s de Hoop Scheffer on Regime Change in Politique EtrangèreSeptember 01, 2011 / Alexandra de Hoop SchefferPolitique étrangèreGMF Paris Office Director Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer published an article on the U.S. policy of regime change from Iraq to the Arab revolts, in the journal Politique étrangère, vol. 76, n° 3, autumn 2011, special issue on the U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East.
U.S.-India Relations: Can India Step Up to the Plate?August 02, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarEast-West Center's Asia Pacific Bulletin
It might seem natural to despair about the current state of US-India relations. New Delhi has eliminated two US suppliers from a landmark competition for 126 front-line fighter aircraft, a contract worth over $10 billion.
Why aren’t we working with Japan and India?July 18, 2011 / Daniel TwiningThe Washington Post
The Obama administration needs to consider what has shifted in our pivotal relationships with India and Japan and where it bears responsibility for the listlessness in our two biggest strategic partnerships in Asia.
No Time to Turn AwayJune 23, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
European leaders dodged yet another volley of bullets this week in their ongoing debt crisis. Greek Prime Minister George Papandreou survived a parliamentary no-confidence vote. But the Greeks have little reason to celebrate, says Bruce Stokes.
Commercial AppealJune 20, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
John Bryson has an opportunity to use the Commerce Department to bolster U.S. competitiveness, if he is given the green light by the president.Gates was far too nice about Nato’s failingsJune 15, 2011 / Constanze StelzenmuellerFinancial Times
Last week Robert Gates gave a valedictory “shock and awe” speech in Brussels in which he excoriated the military weaknesses of Nato’s European members. But matters are a lot worse than he thinks, says Constanze StelzenmüllerA taxing transatlantic challengeJune 14, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
Without co-ordination, Europe and the US risk rewriting their corporate-tax codes in self-destructive ways, writes Bruce Stokes.Not Just a Flesh WoundJune 09, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
The Doha Round is dead. The sooner the World Trade Organization recognizes that, the sooner negotiators can turn their attention to other trade-liberalization accords.Turkey’s Global StrategyJune 07, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri, Joshua W. WalkerLSE
After nearly a decade in power, Turkey's Justice and Development Party (AKP) has grown increasingly confident in its foreign policy, prompting observers to wondered aloud whether the country might be leaving "the West," forcing that group to confront the question "who lost Turkey?"
What Makes a Country Great?June 06, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
A new rating system compares more than gross domestic product, and it suggests that the U.S. lags many of its peers on health, education, and personal fulfillment. By Bruce StokesMixed signalsMay 30, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Indian Express
The weeks since the killing of Osama bin Laden by US Special Forces have witnessed intensified recriminations and engagement between the US and Pakistan. Last week, President Barack Obama said that Pakistan’s obsession with India as an existential threat was misplaced, reiterating a theme he and his top advisers have embraced since assuming office.
A Taxing QuestionMay 26, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
Corporate tax reform is now lost amid the cacophony of anguish about raising the debt ceiling. But the issue is not going away. President Obama has called for lowering corporate taxes. And House Ways and Means Trade Subcommittee Chairman Kevin Brady, R-Texas, recently introduced legislation to enable U.S. multinationals to repatriate overseas profits at preferential tax rates.Obama’s crucial moment in PolandMay 26, 2011 / Ivan Vejvoda
President Obama’s visit to Europe this week is giving him the opportunity to bury once and for all perceptions that have dogged his administration from the outset: that the United States has lost interest in Europe, and has put a higher priority on resetting relations with an authoritarian Russia than it has on the completion of a Europe whole, free, and at peace. UN Climate Talks and Power Politics: It’s Not about the TemperatureMay 25, 2011 / Daniel Twining
Must U.S. climate diplomacy be a wedge rather than a bridge between the United States and key international partners? GMF Senior Fellow for Asia, Daniel Twining's testimony before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs on climate diplomacy.
Above the Fray No MoreMay 23, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
For the United States, there is much to fear from Europe’s debt crisis but not much it can do. When the first wave of Europe’s debt crisis hit a year ago, the U.S.’s fledgling recovery immediately began to stall. Stock-market volatility spiked to levels not seen since the depths of the financial crisis, and stock prices weakened.14 New Fellows Selected for Transatlantic Forum on Migration and IntegrationMay 23, 2011 / Fariz Ismailzade
The German Marshall Fund of the United States announces that 14 new fellows have been selected for the Transatlantic Forum on Migration and Integration (TFMI), to be held in Trivandrum, India, from October 17 – 22, 2011. TFMI is a leading platform for convening future decision-makers for exchange on crucial immigration and integration issues.
Why the Next IMF Head Must Be EuropeanMay 19, 2011 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffWith Dominique Strauss-Kahn having resigned as IMF general director on Wednesday, the debate about his successor promises to get even more heated. But those who argue the next IMF shouldn't be European are wrong. Change is coming to international organizations, but it shouldn't be rushed.Bingde Comes to WashingtonMay 18, 2011 / Daniel M. KlimanThe Diplomat
In a week dominated by news of the IMF director’s apparently sordid behavior, continued Middle East unrest, and the fallout of the United States’ successful military operation in the now infamous Pakistani city of Abbottabad, the U.S. hosting of China’s top general has received comparatively little media attention.A fresh wind from the PacificMay 12, 2011 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice
With a U.S. Congressional vote on trade deals with South Korea, Colombia, and Panama now almost inevitable, the administration of U.S. President Barack Obama is rapidly making a priority of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) agreement, a free-trade agreement involving the United States, Australia, Brunei, Chile, Malaysia, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, and Vietnam.Smart InvestingMay 11, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
This week’s U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue addressed the gamut of bilateral issues troubling relations between the two superpowers: from the value of the Chinese currency to human rights. But no issue may have been more important for the future well-being of the U.S. economy than the trajectory of Chinese direct investment in the United States.What Future for Japan?May 11, 2011 / Daniel M. Kliman
The devastation wrought by the Great Tohoku Earthquake has reinforced perceptions inside and outside Japan of the country’s seemingly irreversible slide from economic superpower to sick man of Asia. Yet it would be premature to count Japan out as a factor in international politics.
Killing of Osama bin Laden has rehabilitated reputation of U.S. Government, officialsMay 04, 2011 / Dhruva JaishankarAsian News International
The dust has already started to settle after President Barack Obama's dramatic announcement on Sunday evening that U.S. special forces had killed al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden in a late-night raid on a compound outside Abbottabad.
Dealing with a more assertive ChinaApril 21, 2011 / Andrew Small
In a hearing at the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, GMF's Andrew Small gave testimony on Beijing's increased international assertiveness. Emerging HangoverApril 20, 2011 / Kati Suominen
As the economic crisis fades in the rearview mirror, some analysts on Wall Street and in Washington expect the world economy to enter a prolonged global growth spurt powered by the emerging markets as a result of "industrialization and urbanization of emerging markets and global trade."The Pacific CampaignApril 14, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
The recent announcement that Colombia and the United States have a provisional agreement on issues that have long delayed completion of their free-trade agreement breaks the logjam that has held up a congressional vote on the South Korea, Colombia, and Panama trade deals.
NATO’s Last ChanceApril 13, 2011 / Andrew A. MichtaThe American Interest
As spring 2011 bursts into bloom, the NATO alliance finds itself withering on the vine. An alliance that was once the quintessential expression and spearpoint of the Transatlantic security relationship is now at risk of undermining it.
Why Congress shouldn’t slash foreign aidApril 08, 2011 / Jim KolbeDaily Caller
Jim Kolbe and Connie Morella explain why Congress shouldn't slash foreign aid in an op-ed for The Daily Caller.Not a Chinese Century, An Indo-American OneApril 04, 2011 / Daniel TwiningGlobal Asia
China’s three decades of explosive growth and increasing influence on the global stage have often led to talk of the country dominating the 21st century. But democratic values and strategic interests shared by India and the US could upend this expectation as the two countries pull closer together.
A Resurgence of RelevanceMarch 31, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
Multinational institutions like the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development are more important than ever in the wake of the economic crisis, says Bruce Stokes.Francois Lafond on Libya SituationMarch 24, 2011 / Francois Lafond
GMF's Francois Lafond recently conducted a series of Q&A sessions with France 24 on the unrest in Libya.Pride comes before a recessionMarch 24, 2011 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceThe U.S. could learn some lessons about labor markets from Europe, writes Bruce Stokes.What we learned from the Security Council debate over LibyaMarch 18, 2011 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The United Nations Security Council voted to authorize military intervention to protect the Libyan people from the depredations of Colonel Qaddafi's rule. What have we learned from the debate over the resolution and its outcome?
Jim Kolbe moderates discussion with heads of the World Bank and WTO on Aid for Trade AgendaMarch 15, 2011 / Jim KolbeUS Chamber of Commerce
On March 14, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Jim Kolbe moderated a discussion between the President of the World Bank Group, Robert Zoellick, and the WTO's Director-General, Pascal LamyFrancois Lafond on Unrest in EgyptMarch 11, 2011 / Francois LafondFrance 24
François Lafond participates in debate on the recent turmoil in Egypt and the Arab world, and on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s 2011 Munich Conference remarks.
The 112th Congress and Post-Crisis AsiaMarch 11, 2011 / Daniel TwiningNBR
An appreciation of America's enduring strengths should be a source of confidence for the 112th Congress. With the right choices, the U.S. will meet the challenges in Asia, draw benefits from Asian growth and peace, and continue to shape the future.
Not So Fast With The Rosy ScenarioMarch 09, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
In February, the unemployment rate fell to 8.9 percent, its lowest level since April 2009, and the economy added 192,000 jobs, the most since May 2010. But the more accurate measure of the jobs picture is found in the employment-population rate, and the situation there is troubling, says Bruce Stokes.Echoes of the Soviet SurgeMarch 04, 2011 / Niels AnnenForeign Policy
The war in Afghanistan is not going well. A young president wants to pull out, but is boxed in by his generals. In Kabul, a corrupt, nominally democratic leader is losing his grip on power. A surge of ground troops has begun. The year is 1985.Embrace minority population as the valuable asset it isFebruary 22, 2011 / Jim KolbeThe Arizona Replublic
Sometime in the next decade or so, Arizona will join 
Dan Price, GMF G20 Advisory Group member and former U.S. sherpa to the G20, is interviewed by the Business News Network on the G20 finance ministers’ meeting taking place on February 18-19, 2011.A Comeback in Asia? How China is Shaping U.S. Foreign Policy in the PacificFebruary 17, 2011 / Niels AnnenFES
Debates about America being in decline are nothing new in the history of the United States, but the extent of pessimism currently shaping the foreign policy debate in Washington is remarkable. This time it’s for real was how Gideon Rachman subtitled a recent article for Foreign Policy on American decline.The Centrality of Manufacturing to America’s Future ProsperityFebruary 16, 2011 / Bruce StokesNew America Foundation
In his State of the Union address January 25, 2011, President Barack Obama mentioned the word “manufacturing” just once. The president’s failure to acknowledge, even in passing, a sector of the economy that accounts for 11 percent of America’s GDP is a metaphor for his administration’s disdain for manufacturing as an important contributor to the nation’s future well-being.Failure to LaunchFebruary 12, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Exports would create American jobs, and India's new public-investment program offers a huge opportunity. So why aren't we tapping it? By Bruce StokesTrilateral ConcernsFebruary 10, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
The Stockholm China Forum, a semiannual gathering of American, European, and Chinese interests, is a useful venue to take the temperature of what is arguably the most important trilateral relationship in the world.The facts on foreign aidFebruary 09, 2011 / Jim KolbePolitico
With Egypt leading the news and congressional budget discussions coming to a head, there is an energetic debate now about U.S. foreign assistance.Mideast Protests Drive Up Oil, Threaten RecoveryFebruary 01, 2011 / Bruce StokesFiscal Times
With oil prices soaring past $100 a barrel on Monday, thanks to growing uncertainty about stability in the Middle East, the somewhat distant, feel-good, democracy-awakening story coming out of Egypt suddenly took on a more ominous, economic tone that could hit Americans where it hurts most — their wallets.Time to hit Lukashenko where it hurtsJanuary 31, 2011 / Joerg Forbrig
Following December’s fraudulent election, a brutal crackdown has only added further misery to Belarus’s beleaguered democratic opposition, civil society and media. In response, EU ministers were on Monday expected to back a new travel ban and asset freeze against Alexander Lukashenko, the country’s dictator, and more than 150 of his henchmen.More effective foreign assistance can pay real dividendsJanuary 28, 2011 / Jim KolbeDaily Caller
As a new Congress gets into gear, both Republicans and Democrats have a solemn duty to do the people?s work and to make sure their taxpayer dollars are being spent wisely. U.S. foreign assistance is already under the microscope, as it should be, but we believe policymakers should focus on making it better instead of slashing budgets.An Agenda, If You Can Keep ItJanuary 27, 2011 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
After years of relative quiescence, Congress actually has a trade agenda in 2011: possible votes on the Korea, Colombia, and Panama trade agreements, and on Russia's application to join the World Trade Organization.Recalibrating the Transatlantic Relationship for a Multipolar AgeJanuary 26, 2011 / Constanze Stelzenmueller, Tomas Valasek
GMF's Constanze Stelzenmüller and Tomas Valasek co-author a new report with Fabrice Pothier on the Transatlantic Relationship in a Multipolar Age.Stopping the Transatlantic DriftJanuary 25, 2011 / Constanze Stelzenmueller, Tomas ValasekInternational Herald TribuneYou might call it the Obama paradox: Atlanticists on both sides of the ocean were certain that this president, inaugurated two years ago, would renew the trans-Atlantic alliance. Yet two years later, the United States and Europe seem further apart than they have ever been in their policies as much as in public attitudes.
Opponent of My OpponentJanuary 22, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
Last year, mutual frustration with China’s increasingly irascible behavior— coupled with deepening concern about Pakistan—led to a reboot of the Indian-American relationship.China in 2011 and beyondJanuary 19, 2011 / Martin Jacques, Joseph Quinlan, Andrew SmallGMF Blog
To coincide with President Hu Jintao's historic visit to Washington, DC, GMF has published three articles on the state of China's relations with transatlantic partners.Political reform: China’s next modernization?January 13, 2011 / Daniel TwiningWashington Post
China boasts the world's second-largest economy, delivering double-digit economic growth on a seemingly permanent basis. As President Hu Jintao prepares to visit Washington next week, his country's model of authoritarian development looks unstoppable - with troubling implications for American primacy in world affairs.
Is Multi-Kulti Dead?January 12, 2011 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffAngela Merkel’s claim that “multi-kulti” has failed set off a wave of critical reactions from the foreign press. But many of her critics abroad failed to set her quote in context. Far from disavowing the idea of a diverse Germany, Merkel was actually criticizing Germany’s integration track record.Reversing Course on BelarusJanuary 10, 2011 / Joerg ForbrigThe New York TimesE.U. policy toward Belarus is in tatters. Two years of engagement with Alexander Lukashenko’s regime, direct cooperation in the framework of the European Union’s Eastern Partnership program, and gentle pressure to allow some space for democrats in the country came to naught on Dec. 19, when the police crushed a courageous mass protest against fraudulent elections.Inescapable transatlantic budget painsJanuary 06, 2011 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceBudget cutting and deficit reduction will be a major preoccupation in Washington this year, with important implications for European interests.Fostering a Free AzerbaijanDecember 29, 2010 / Bruce StokesWashington Post
Ten years ago this month, a young American civilian working for democracy in Azerbaijan was brutally murdered in the former Soviet republic's capital. The stabbing of John Alvis raised little public attention. A decade later, his death remains a crime deemed unsolved by the FBI.Herald a new orderDecember 21, 2010 / Daniel TwiningHindustan Times
United States President Barack Obama accomplished three important things during his visit to India last month. He put to bed a notion that held sway earlier in his administration that a US-China 'G2' could jointly manage Asia and the world.
Will Turkey remain an American ally?December 14, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerHuffington Post
The headline stories from WikiLeaks of the last few days have focused attention on American foreign policy, with a particular focus on the strains within and with historic allies. The central role of Turkey in these revelations has caused further apprehension in U.S.-Turkish relations at an already tense moment in the alliance.
Holbrooke Remembered for Contributions to Transatlantic RelationsDecember 14, 2010 / Joshua W. Walker
The German Marshall Fund is very saddened by the death of Ambassador Richard C. Holbrooke. He was a close friend of GMF and a committed transatlanticist. The transatlantic community will greatly miss his tireless efforts as a diplomat.Transatlantic Opinion on Immigration: Greater Worries and Outlier OptimismDecember 09, 2010 / Delancey GustinThis article outlines some of the key findings of the 2008 and 2009 Transatlantic Trends: Immigration1 public opinion study.Why Europe MattersDecember 04, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
When European leaders announced a $112 billion bailout of Ireland last week, only to watch bond markets start panicking about whether Spain and Portugal might be the next dominoes to fall, it was hardly a surprise that neither President Obama nor congressional leaders even seemed to notice the tremors across the Atlantic. But that indifference could be a mistake.Korea TimeDecember 02, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal Daily
U.S. and South Korean negotiators rushed this week to strike a deal on a revised Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). Failure to get the deal done when President Obama visited Seoul in mid-November heightened skepticism about its prospects.A Climate Conference ReaderDecember 01, 2010 / Bruce Stokes
GMF is sending a contingent of climate change experts to the COP16 United Nations Climate Change Conference this week. A brief Q&A with one of our program associates outlines expectations, incentives, and the key players at the conference.
A Growing Skepticism of TradeNovember 19, 2010 / Bruce StokesCongress Daily
In the wake of the 2010 congressional elections, the future of trade policy in the 112th Congress is best summed up by the question once posed by the 1960s rock band Buffalo Springfield: “There’s something happening here. What it is ain’t exactly clear.”U.S.-India Relations: From Vision to ProcessNovember 18, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarAsia Pacific Bulletin
Barack Obama’s first visit to India as U.S. president was a welcome tonic for ties between the world’s two largest democratic powers, correcting early missteps by his administration.America: Stop lecturing China and do your homeworkNovember 17, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffRealClearWorldBarack Obama finally succeeded in uniting the world - just not the way he intended. At the G-20 summit in Seoul, countries almost universally rejected America's ideas for correcting current-account imbalances as well as its second round of quantitative easing (QE2). After an electoral shellacking at home, the U.S. president suffered a diplomatic shellacking abroad. It was one of the darker hours of American economic diplomacy.The United States and Turkey: Can They Agree to Disagree?November 16, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerBelfer Center
Given the headline-grabbing actions of Turkey this summer with regard to both Israel and Iran, a powerful narrative has emerged in which the West has "lost" Turkey. But this narrative ignores the process of democratization in Turkey and the domestic pressures facing a populist Justice and Development Party (AKP) government.
Are U.S.-India relations oversold?November 12, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
The biggest disappointment of President Barack Obama's Asia trip was his failure to strike an agreement on the Korea-United States Free Trade Agreement in Seoul. His biggest success was his embrace of a transformative partnership with India. The president can now claim ownership of a relationship that has been on the rocks since he took office.
The Long Currency WarNovember 12, 2010 / Kati SuominenForeign PolicyAt the end of the G-20 summit, where world leaders managed only to delay dealing with difficult challenges from global imbalances to trade protectionism, South Korean President Lee Myung-bak proclaimed a "temporary end" to the so-called currency wars that have reached a fever pitch over the last two months as countries have manipulated their exchange rates to gain an edge in world markets.G20 Meeting Starts in SeoulNovember 10, 2010 / Kati Suominen
With the fifth meeting of the G-20 heads of government kicking off in Seoul this Thursday, GMF and Club de Madrid presents a series of materials exploring the likely outcomes and implications of this year's summit.For an Indo-American CenturyNovember 06, 2010 / Daniel TwiningIndian Express
President Obama’s trip to New Delhi and Mumbai should solidify a partnership that could shape the 21st century the way the Atlantic alliance shaped the 20th.
Policies to Bridge Regional and Global Financial ArrangementsNovember 01, 2010 / Kati SuominenMIT Press
The G20 placed the International Monetary Fund (IMF) at the center of its efforts to tame the global financial crisis, tripling the Fund’s lending capacity and refurbishing its mission and instruments. However, as the world economy recovers, the Fund is facing difficult questions about its legitimacy and effectiveness.America’s Silence By DefaultOctober 28, 2010 / Joshua W. WalkerGlobal Post
As an American who has just returned from a series of discussions on international relations and America’s role in the Levant and the South Caucuses, I’m left with a sinking feeling. It was eye-opening to see the discrepancy between America’s vibrant debates at home over the upcoming mid-term elections and virtual silence on U.S. foreign policy priorities in this region of the world.
The Return of GlobalizationOctober 21, 2010 / Kati Suominen, Gary HufbauerForeign Policy
As the G-20 finance ministers gather in South Korea this weekend in advance of November's big meeting, they will surely notice that globalization is back -- almost. The trajectory of world trade over the last two years looks V-shaped: a drop of 12.2 percent in 2009 followed by a projected gain of 13.5 percent in 2010. Can they agree to cooperate before protectionist urges tear them apart?A Roadmap for Revitalizing the U.S. Partnership With IndiaOctober 19, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
Presiden Obama will visit South Korea on November 11-12 on a post-election Asian tour that will also take him to Japan, India, and Indonesia. The short stopover here has both strategic and trade implications for the White House.
Ensuring globalization after the great crisisOctober 13, 2010 / Kati Suominen, Gary HufbauerVox
"Good fences make good neighbors", says the narrator's neighbor in Robert Frost's poem "The Mending Wall" of nearly a century ago. What is usually forgotten about the poem is that the narrator, presumably Frost himself, questions why fences between neighbors are necessary at all.Insuring Against Instability: United States and the future of the International Monetary FundOctober 06, 2010 / Kati SuominenBerkeley Electronic Press
The patchwork of initiatives established between NATO and Asia has never been framed by any overarching region-specific rationale. Insofar as there is a strategic imperative driving outreach in the region, it has been an effort to draw in "global partners" into closer cooperation with existing alliance operations - primarily in Afghanistan - rather than any broader process of identifying shared security concerns either with the major Asian powers or even with traditional partners in the region.Double-Teaming ChinaSeptember 24, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Baroness Catherine Ashton, the European Union’s new foreign minister, will come to Washington next week on a mission. One of her goals is to strengthen the transatlantic dialogue about China.
Turkey Drifts AwaySeptember 24, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational Journal
Add Turkey to the Obama administration’s lengthening list of foreign-policyheadaches.Balance of payments: Different definitions of normalSeptember 23, 2010 / Bruce StokesCongress Daily
Slow economic growth is potentially becoming a "new normal" for both European and American economies. However, in these circumstances there is much to suggest that a European style social security net could help reduce the U.S's spiraling unemployment rates.America’s silence makes us complicit in Russia’s crimesSeptember 20, 2010 / Bruce StokesWashington PostWhat will it take for higher levels of the Obama administration to unequivocally condemn arrests of activists, violence against protesters, pressure on journalists, and murders of government critics in Russia?Global opinion disapproves of Iran’s nuclear weapons program, but differs on how to stop itSeptember 17, 2010 / Bruce StokesYale Global
In a speech September 8 to the US Council on Foreign Relations, US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton proudly asserted that “through classic shoe-leather diplomacy, we have built a broad consensus that will hold Iran accountable to its obligations if it continues its defiance” of the international community and builds a nuclear arsenal.
WTO Dispute Panels Gain PowerSeptember 03, 2010 / Bruce Stokes
GENEVA—In November 2008, in an early version of the cash-forclunkers legislation, Sen. Barbara Mikulski, D-Md., proposed allowing taxpayers to deduct interest on car loans and state car taxes from their federal income taxes as a means of boosting plummeting U.S. auto sales. Asked if her scheme would apply to both foreign- and domesticmade vehicles, she replied, matter-of-factly, “Of course it would; otherwise it would be WTO-incompatible.”Search for Plan BSeptember 03, 2010 / Bruce Stokes
The image of U.S. helicopters airlifting Americans from Saigon rooftops in 1975 continues to haunt U.S. policy makers 35 years later as they grope for an exit from Afghanistan. With parliamentary elections scheduled for September 18 and the drawdown of U.S. forces in the country slated to begin by mid-2011, the debate about a Plan B for Afghanistan has begun in earnest.Russia must be part of the European utopiaAugust 15, 2010 / Constanze Stelzenmueller
Two years after the 2008 war between Georgia and Russia, it is time for the US and Europe to realise that this was a watershed moment for the west. Of course, it was a disaster for Georgia, but it also sent a shock wave across the post-Soviet space.Walk, But Learn to Chew Gum, TooAugust 10, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerHeinrich Boell Foundation
The Russo-Georgian war was a defining moment for the United States and Europe, showing the flaws of Western policy for the region. The challenge of crafting a coherent and effective policy for Eastern Europe remains unresolved on both sides of the Atlantic.Medvedev Is No DemocratJuly 26, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerThe Moscow Times
Those who had hoped that President Dmitry Medvedev would lead Russia to a more democratic, Western-friendly future have experienced a roller coaster of emotions recently. They were uplifted by a speech Medvedev gave before Russia’s ambassadors two weeks ago in which he spoke of the need for “modernization alliances” with the United States and other Western countries. Three days later, however, Medvedev took responsibility for a law that would dangerously expand the powers of the Federal Security Service.Why the U.S. can’t look to NATO or the EU to support its Russia strategyJuly 23, 2010 / Stephen SzaboEurope's World
Europe is proving a foreign policy disappointment to the Obama Administration as it struggles to propound a clearer strategy toward Russia. Washington now recognizes, says Stephen Szabo, that only Berlin has the key to a new relationship with Moscow.Corporations: Stop Hoarding!July 16, 2010 / Bruce StokesThe National JournalGetting corporate leaders to act like capitalists, not Scrooges— to invest rather than save—is the nation’s most pressing economic challenge. If the country is to avoid looming economic stagnation, the government may need to use the threat of tax sticks and the enticement of investment carrots to get corporations to begin to take risks again and pledge their assets to America’s future.
More doubtful about the gains, but still committed to the EUJuly 15, 2010 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceEuropean publics are still Europhiles in theory, but there is growing Euroscepticism in practice. U.S. Acted Too Hastily in Spy SwapJuly 12, 2010 / Bruce StokesThe Moscow Times
Most analysts in the United States are praising U.S. President Barack Obama and the way his administration handled the spy swap. Many in Russia, by comparison, are blasting the Foreign Intelligence Service for an inept, clumsy spy operation that embarrassed their country. Both governments seem eager to put the controversy behind them as quickly as possible, but many questions remain unanswered before this episode gets relegated to the history books.
The European Parliament, newly powerful, is becoming a magnet for U.S. lobbyists.The Dollar Question: Where Are We?July 09, 2010 / Kati Suominen
The global crisis has led some to question the dollar’s place as the dominant currency. This column discusses three camps in the literature: those advocating a new synthetic global currency, those arguing that a new reserve currency will emerge, and those suggesting a return to sharing the role. It concludes that talk of the dollar’s death – or even its decline – are exaggerated.China in Check? The Limits to Beijing’s AssertivenessJuly 07, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
The U.S.-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue capped off a three-month period that has returned the Sino-U.S. relationship to a state of fragile equilibrium. Strategic mistrust remains pervasive and there are few issues on which the two sides genuinely see eye-to-eye. But the missteps of 2009 provided some important lessons for better management of future differences.David Kramer discusses the future of Russian-U.S. relations following the arrest of ten alleged Russian spiesJuly 06, 2010 / Andrew SmallC-SPAN
David Kramer, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow, discusses the arrest by the FBI of ten people in New York, New Jersey, and Virginia suspected of being undercover Russian agents and what this could mean for U.S. and Russia relations.How to prevent another war in the Southern CaucasusJuly 03, 2010 / Andrew SmallThe Washington Post
After Russian President Dmitry Medvedev's recent visit, the Obama administration wants to prove it has a strategy to deepen ties with allies such as Poland while it pursues a reset with Russia, so it has sent Secretary of State Hillary Clinton on a whirlwind tour of Central and Eastern Europe and the South Caucasus. The trip also seeks to blunt conservative criticism that Washington is sacrificing allies for the sake of reconciliation with Moscow.
Clinton to Kyiv: Speaking truth to powerJuly 01, 2010 / Andrew SmallMoldova.orgOf all the stops on Secretary of State Hillary Clinton’s upcoming trip to Europe, none is more important than Ukraine. This is a country heading in the wrong direction—as evidenced by the disturbing and rapid rollback of its democratic gains. Much is at stake, for the implications of a Ukraine moving toward a non-democratic, if not authoritarian, system of governance are enormous not just for Ukraine, but also for Europe and the United States.Duck Soup (1933): An IntroductionJune 30, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerSpeech to Junge DGAPConstanze Stelzenmüller introduces the movie Duck Soup in advance of a screening for the Junge DGAP’s Foreign Policy Movie Series. Duck Soup, she says, is a political satire despite the protestations of the Marx Brothers themselves, who claimed they were just "trying to get a laugh," according to Groucho Marx.McChrystal’s Replacement Marks the End of the “Big Macs” in AfghanistanJune 29, 2010 / Niels AnnenSocial Europe Journal
The McChrystal incident is not only meat for the tireless hosts of cable news shows; it also represents another chapter in the sometimes complicated relationship between the commander-in-chief and his generals.‘No-One Is Going to Be Bought Off by a Tiny Revaluation’June 26, 2010 / Andrew SmallSpiegel Online
In the run-up to the G-20 summit, China has tried to placate the United States with a revaluation of its currency. But the move is not a real change of course, explains the German Marshall Fund's Andrew Small in a Spiegel Online interview. He argues that the Chinese leadership is more concerned with deflecting external criticism than with the health of the global economy.‘A lack of fire in the belly,’ concludes Pakistan on Obama’s war strategyJune 25, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
No matter how talented General David Petraeus proves to be commanding American and NATO forces, it is hard to see how our Afghan strategy can be successful absent a strategic reorientation by the Obama administration that creates a different calculus for leaders in Kabul and Rawalpindi (headquarters of the Pakistani armed forces) with regard to the Afghan endgame.
Modernizing Russia’s Economy… and PoliticsJune 24, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyU.S. policymakers for years have lamented their lack of leverage in pushing for democratic reform and respect for human rights in Russia. Well, now we may have an opportunity, but the question is whether we will make use of it. If Russian President Dmitry Medvedev is serious in wanting our help with his economic modernization agenda, we should insist that he needs to make measurable progress in political liberalization first.No, it’s not a gentler, kinder RussiaJune 22, 2010 / Daniel TwiningWashington Post
Ahead of Dmitry Medvedev's visit to Washington this week, a "leaked" Russian foreign policy document is causing some Russia watchers to wonder whether the Russian president is shifting his country toward a more positive, pro-Western stance. A careful read of the 18,000-word document does not support such wishful thinking. Read
Net assessment involves simulations, opposition analysis, historical and cultural studies, critical reviews and low-probability, high-impact contingency planning. Read
Did global imbalances cause the crisis?June 14, 2010 / Kati SuominenVoxEU
Did global imbalances cause the global crisis? This column summarises the variety of explanations of the relationship between imbalances and the crisis. While the debate continues, it suggests that, as a matter of prudence, policies to contain global imbalances may still be warranted even if they did not trigger the crisis.
There is no denying the vastly improved tone and rapport between the American and Russian presidents compared to the end of the Bush-Putin days. But before people get too carried away, let's focus on two recent developments that remind us of the challenges we face in dealing with Russia.Brave New World? Emerging Powers Need to Show Responsible LeadershipMay 28, 2010 / Niels AnnenSocial Europe Journal
Much has been written about the world becoming multipolar, but nobody seems to be able to tell what such a world would actually look like. After the spectacular nuclear deal between Turkey, Brazil and Iran, the picture becomes a little clearer and it seems that the P5 will have to share some of the world’s attention.Pushing Merkel: wie Amerika über die Kanzlerin denktMay 12, 2010 / Niels AnnenHandelsblattThe current crisis of the Euro has shaken American confidence in the EU and the president is working the phones to encourage European leaders to take action. Nevertheless the American debate about the EU is multilayered and depends strongly on how Americans themselves see the future of their country. In a multi-polar world, the relevance of alliances is growing.New START vs. missile defense: is it one or the other?April 30, 2010 / Niels AnnenForeign PolicyThe Obama administration is already gearing up its push for Senate ratification of the recently signed START agreement between the United States and Russia. As senior administration officials make their case around town at various think tanks and before Congress, they need to do a better job of refining their message to make sure it stands up to scrutiny.Getting Asia right means getting India rightApril 27, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy
President Obama's Asia policy remains a work in progress with some real possibilities to advance key relationships. But losing India may do more to weaken the U.S. position in Asia than any number of accomplishments in relations with Japan, South Korea, and other partners.
Helping Obama Close Guantanamo is in Europe’s InterestApril 24, 2010 / Niels AnnenWith a record approval rating of 88% in Germany, President Barak Obama shouldn't be too much concerned about his plea to Europeans to help him close the detention Camp Guantanamo at the US base in Cuba. But sympathy alone does not lead to a new policy. Obama is learning this the hard way. And Europeans may miss a unique opportunity to influence the way in which the US is going to deal with terrorists in the future.” A normal President” – Barack Obama, one year into his PresidencyApril 20, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff" A normal President" - Barack Obama, one year into his Presidency (German Language - in "Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte"American silence while Kyrgyzstan burnedApril 14, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffForeign PolicyNothing sums up U.S. policy toward Kyrgyzstan than these contrasting images: at the same time that thousands of Kyrgyz were taking to the streets protesting against their corrupt authoritarian leader, Kurmanbek Bakiyev, Bakiyev's son, Maksim, was arriving in Washington for consultations with U.S. officials. While Kyrgyzstan literally was burning, U.S. officials were prepared for business-as-usual talks with Maksim, who, like his father, has been accused of engaging in massive corruption and human rights abuses.Obama’s Victory Lap in PragueApril 05, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffForeign PolicyThanks to his personal intervention in ironing out final sticking points, Barack Obama is heading to Prague in a few days to sign a new arms control treaty with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev. When the glow wears off, the hard work of winning ratification will get started in the U.S. Senate, where tough questioning can be expected from many Republicans.Strengthening the U.S.-Korea Alliance for the 21st Century: The Role of Korean-American Partnership in Shaping Asia’s Emerging OrderApril 01, 2010 / Daniel TwiningThe U.S.-ROK Alliance in the 21st Century (book chapter)
While the United States' other relationships in Asia have transformed as the region has re-emerged, the relationship with South Korea remains stuck in the past, frozen by the continuing conflict on the Korean peninsula. South Korea and the United States will both benefit from a strengthened alliance, positioning both countries in a space where they can adapt and thrive in an Asian century.
Friend or Foe: Does the Obama administration know the difference?March 22, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyA slam against the Obama administration heard with greater frequency these days is that it is much harder on its allies than on its enemies (even former enemies). At the same time that it desperately tries to win over "new friends," the administration treats its old friends either with indifference (e.g., most of Europe) or a critical eye. A perfect example of this is the administration's handling of the recent blow-up with Israel over settlements in East Jerusalem as compared with its response to Russia's announcement last week on nuclear reactors in Iran.Settlements are not worth this fightMarch 16, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDIE ZEITFinally the Americans have called out Israel on its settlement policy. It took the embarrassment of a Vice President for the U.S. to finally say: enough is enough. While this move may be a milestone in the overdue recalibration of U.S. policy vis a vis Israel it does not help the peace process.Chinese CheckersFebruary 20, 2010 / Bruce StokesNational JournalAs China grows more powerful, the diplomatic game becomes harder, something the Obama administration discovered to its dismay in year one of its China policy.Dealing With a More Assertive ChinaFebruary 08, 2010 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take; Al Jazeera; Forbes; The Diplomat; RealClearWorld; Foreign Policy; The Atlantic Community
The mood on China in Western capitals is beginning to darken. From cyber-attacks to obstinacy in Copenhagen, Beijing's assertiveness and the hardening tone of its diplomacy are prompting a rethink. If the competitive aspects of the relationship with China are going to dominate in the years ahead, have the United States and Europe got their strategies right? And if not, what are the options?The Imperialists from MoscowFebruary 06, 2010 / Andrew SmallSueddeutsche ZeitungEighteen months ago, a war took place in Europe between Russia and Georgia. It was a little war by the standards of modern warfare but it nevertheless shook the world. It sparked the greatest crisis in European security since the Balkan wars of the mid-1990s and brought Russia and the West to the edge of a new Cold War. Moscow not only invaded a neighbor for the first time since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. It broke the cardinal rule of post-Cold War European security that borders in Europe would never again be changed by force of arms.Cracking ChimericaFebruary 04, 2010 / Dhruva JaishankarThe Indian Express
American foreign policy concepts can be as fickle as fashion trends. The most recent catchphrase is “G-2”, popularised by Zbigniew Brzezinski, and meant to reflect a necessary and desirable duopoly between the US and China. The Obama administration was seen as buying into this concept when it institutionalised a strategic and economic dialogue between the two countries last year.
Economic rebalancing is coming, whatever the EU wantsFebruary 04, 2010 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceObama wants to change the balance of the international economic order. Europe will need to adapt or to persuade him otherwise.Some American Priorities For 2010January 23, 2010 / Francois LafondDéfense NationaleU.S. President Barack Obama’s greatest achievement during his first year in office has been to dramatically improve the image of the United States around the world. His actions and ideas are viewed favorably by most Europeans. This “Obama effect” has also affected U.S. foreign policy. From a European perspective, Obama now has four main foreign policy goals to achieve. The most crucial test for the Obama administration in 2010 will be the so-called “clash of civilizations.” The Israeli-Palestinian peace process is stalled, and Iranian nuclear negotiations are in a deadlock. Nevertheless, Obama’s open-handed and global rhetoric will help the regional actors to better engage with one and other and lead to new paths of progress. Obama’s three other foreign policy challenges are: “afghanizing” the ongoing “war of necessity,” trying an open-handed approach to Russia, and putting back on track the fundamental issue of strategic alliances such as NATO. These are the four areas on which U.S. foreign policy will be assessed.A new decade and a new transatlantic strategy?January 07, 2010 / Bruce StokesEuropean Voice.comA new year, a new European Commission and a U.S. president who can no longer get by simply by not being George Bush create an opportunity to take a new look at the U.S.-EU strategic relationship for the new decade.Ein ganz normaler PräsidentJanuary 06, 2010 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffZeitA year after taking office as the 44th President of the United States Barack Obama has transformed himself from a modern day Messiah to a perfectly normal President. Some speculate whether a failed presidency is in the making. But, by any measure, this is anything but a failed presidency, at least so far. Three accomplishments mark Obama’s first year as President: he has prevented a recession from becoming a depression by coordinating the global response to the crisis and introducing financial market reforms; he has presented a package of economic and social reforms to modernize America; and he has reconceptualized American foreign policy to fit the era of multipolarity. Failure this is not.Cheer up America: You’re still on top of the world.January 05, 2010 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe United States need not be so pessimistic about its future. Its position in the world continues to grow in significance, and there is little indication that it is entering a period of decline - even in the face of Asia's rise.The Self-Chained RepublicJanuary 01, 2010 / Constanze StelzenmuellerInternationale PolitikThe lonely decision by a German colonel in Kunduz to call in a NATO airstrike on Taliban forces who had hijacked a pair of fuel trucks may yet become a maturity test for Germany's political culture, twenty years after the fall of the Wall. A specially created investigative committee in the German federal legislature will now examine who was responsible for the many weaknesses and flaws apparent in the incident itself, as well as in its handling. But it is unlikely to examine the fundamental issues at the heart of German security policy: Does Germany even have a security policy which deserves that name? Does it have a strategy? How effective are the actors, institutions and instruments of German security policy?The new pecking orderDecember 27, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDer Tagesspiegel
Copenhagen has shown the globe to be in transition. The multipolar world may be arriving, but so far multipolarity means chaos. In such moments of transition it is not quite clear where power rests.Russia’s ‘sphere’ in EuropeDecember 26, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe Washington PostAs Washington and Moscow zero in on a new strategic arms control treaty, it is time to look at what lies ahead in U.S.-Russian relations. The greatest gap between Western and Russian thinking today may not be on Afghanistan or Iran. It may well be on Europe.Lessons of the Copenhagen discordDecember 21, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffFinancial TimesIt will be discussed for some time whether the Copenhagen accord represents an unsatisfactory compromise or an unmitigated failure. Whatever the ultimate answer, there are some preliminary lessons that can be drawn from a memorably chaotic global gathering.
Resetting U.S. Russian Relations: It Takes TwoDecember 16, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffWashington QuarterlyPresident Barack Obama deserves credit for his initial efforts to reverse the deterioration in relations between the United States and Russia. The downward spiral in bilateral ties accelerated by Russia's invasion of Georgia last year has ended for now, but relations are not likely to improve appreciably because of fundamental differences in values, interests, and outlook between the two countries' leaderships.The role of think tanks in shaping EU policiesDecember 16, 2009 / Pavol DemešEurope's WorldThere are various institutions on the Old continent which employ highly educated people to think about our societies and to study social, political, economic and environmental issues. Traditionally, universities and later academies of science and research institutes, attracted smart people whose role was to develop new thinking about human affairs and to explain to power-holders and the public what is really going on in our societies and what is likely to happen in the future.Clinton on human rights: digging out of a holeDecember 15, 2009 / Pavol DemešForeign Policy
U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, in her speech on Monday at Georgetown University on "The Human Rights Agenda for the 21st Century," finally grabbed a shovel and started digging out of the hole she had placed herself in on this very issue. With some exceptions, her speech sounded familiar: Many of the passages could just as easily have been delivered by a senior Bush administration official.
When it comes to Honduras, it’s time to leave the Zelaya debacle in the pastDecember 09, 2009 / David J. Kramer
Last week was a very good week for the people of Honduras. On Sunday Nov. 29, Hondurans went to the polls to choose their next president in an election that passed the "free and fair" test of observers on the ground (myself included). Three days later on Dec. 2, Honduran legislators rejected a return to the past, defeating a motion to restore the ousted and disgraced leader, Manuel Zelaya, for the remaining two months of his term.
They Don’t Come any Greener than ObamaDecember 07, 2009 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffSpiegel OnlineAs the curtains open at the global summit in Copenhagen, critics in Europe are calling US President Barack Obama a liar and a traitor in the fight to slow global warming. In truth, though, he's the greenest president America has ever seen.What is Obama’s real ‘Exit Strategy’ for Afghanistan? And why it matters to IndiaDecember 04, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyOne way to judge President Obama's speech announcing (another) new strategy for Afghanistan and Pakistan is by how it fares among those on the front lines. As one senior official in Kabul puts it in today's Wall Street Journal Asia, "We couldn't solve the Afghanistan problem in eight years, but now the U.S. wants to solve it in 18 months? I don't see how it could be done."
U.S. Expectations of Germany After the Election: A Highway to Hell or a Stairway to HeavenDecember 01, 2009 / Daniel TwiningAmerican Institute for Contemporary German StudiesThe recent German election presents real opportunity for the German-American relationship, but that opportunity will be bounded by both the harsh realities of the challenges both countries face in 2009 and beyond.
Global security conference opens in Halifax this weekendNovember 19, 2009 / Craig KennedyThe Chronicle HeraldWhen the Halifax International Security Forum gets underway Friday, it will be the first gathering of its kind in North America. There have been events like this in Europe for years, notably the Munich Security Conference, the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, and Brussels Forum in Belgium. Because of Halifax's historical, commercial, and strategic status in the transatlantic community, this city is the right place to hold this inaugural meeting.A Cold WindNovember 12, 2009 / Dhruva JaishankarIndian Express
Barack Obama may be the first post-Boomer president, but he appears to retain a similar orientation to Clinton in matters pertaining to India, although for his generation India is more closely associated with Satyam than satyagraha.
What to Read on Turkish PoliticsNovember 01, 2009 / Ian LesserForeign PolicyThe reach of Turkey's cultural and foreign policies extends from the Balkans to Western China, and the country plays an increasingly important role in debates about the future of both Europe and the Middle East.Afghanistan-Pakistan: Bringing China (Back) InOctober 23, 2009 / Andrew SmallTransatlantic Take
Of all the regional actors engaged in Afghanistan and Pakistan, China's role is perhaps the most opaque. Alternately coaxed as a potential savior and condemned as a parasitic free-rider, the transatlantic allies have not yet worked out how to harness Beijing's undoubted influence and economic clout. This is not altogether surprising: China's motives are complex and at times contradictory. But if the United States and Europe play their hand well, an opening exists - Beijing's security calculus is changing in ways that are increasingly favorable to greater cooperation.Euro Defence Spending and NATOOctober 20, 2009 / Daniel FataGlobalBriefThis week, NATO defence ministers are meeting in Bratislava for their thrice-annual regular meeting. Topping the agenda will be a discussion about the current status of Allied defence capabilities – specifically, the need to improve and invest in such capabilities. The discussion comes in the midst of NATO’s ongoing operations in Afghanistan and Kosovo, and on the heels of the Obama administration’s decision to largely retool and resize America’s ballistic missile defence system in Europe – a decision that has reenergized the debate in Central and Eastern Europe as to whether more emphasis should be placed on procuring military capabilities to defend the territory of the newest Allied member states, or whether NATO members should continue procuring materials for expeditionary operations.Opinion: A hidden deal on Iran sanctions?October 17, 2009 / Daniel FataGlobal PostFor those hoping the international community might finally be getting more serious about possible sanctions against Iran for its continued defiance of U.N. Security Council resolutions, the headlines this week were downright discouraging. “In Face of Sanctions Push, China Warms Up to Iran,” The New York Times declared on Friday. “China Lauds Ties with Iran,” according to Thursday's Wall Street Journal. And, as Charles Krauthammer noted in his column in Friday’s Washington Post, his own paper said on Wednesday: “Russian Not Budging on Iran Sanctions; Clinton Unable to Sway Counterpart.”Clinton in Moscow: A mixed bagOctober 16, 2009 / Daniel FataForeign PolicySecretary of State Hillary Clinton came away from her visit to Moscow this week with mixed results. The two big ticket items involved Iran and the human rights situation inside Russia.
No More Low-Hanging FruitOctober 14, 2009 / Pavol DemešTransitions OnlineThis year found the Euro-Atlantic community not only busy with pressing economic and political issues but also commemorating several important milestones – the 70th anniversary of the start of World War II, the 60th anniversary of NATO's founding, the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall. This last opened space for unprecedented changes in the former Soviet bloc.
Europe is in love with Barack Obama, according to recent polls. But will this affair of the heart be a brief flirtation or something more enduring? Like many relationships, the partners themselves may not really know until times get tough. With troubles looming in Afghanistan and Iran, that day of reckoning is fast approaching.
Missing from the Georgia ReportOctober 03, 2009 / Jörg HimmelreichThe New York TimesThe Russian-Georgian "five-day war" in August 2008 did not end the political conflict: It has all the potential to explode into a new armed confrontation any day.The stakes in Afghanistan go well beyond AfghanistanSeptember 30, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyThe problem with the current debate over Afghanistan is that it is too focused on Afghanistan. There is no question that the intrinsic importance of winning wars our country chooses to fight -- to secure objectives that remain as compelling today as they were on September 12, 2001 -- is itself reason for President Obama to put in place a strategy for victory in Afghanistan.Can Berlin and Washington Agree on Russia?September 28, 2009 / Stephen SzaboWashington QuarterlyBoth Russia and Germany are back on the U.S. agenda. Russia will be a key element of a wide array of policies to the Obama administration, including dealing with Iran and the construction of a broader nonproliferation regime, energy security, nuclear arms reductions, and Afghanistan. Russia policy will also be central to U.S. designs for NATO, including how to deal with Georgia and Ukraine, and the viability of a pan-European security structure.A Deal with Moscow? Don’t Bet on ItSeptember 25, 2009 / Stephen SzaboForeign PolicyWill Medvedev's words actually translate into Russian actions when it comes time to draft a tough resolution and vote? The Obama team appears to expect the Russians to go along, especially after its decision last week to scrap Bush administration plans for missile defense sites in Poland and the Czech Republic. McFaul and other senior officials have rejected the notion of such a deal.Shattered Confidence in EuropeSeptember 19, 2009 / Stephen SzaboWashington PostPresident Obama's decision to shelve the Bush administration's missile defense plans has created a crisis of confidence in Washington's relations with Central and Eastern Europe. The defense architecture the administration proposes may make more strategic sense in addressing the immediate Iranian threat. Nevertheless, it runs the risk of shattering the morale and standing of transatlantic leaders in the region who now feel politically undermined and exposed.Placating Russia Won’t WorkSeptember 18, 2009 / Stephen SzaboThe Washington Post
Russian leaders never liked the idea that the United States, Poland and the Czech Republic were cooperating on missile defense to confront an emerging Iranian threat. With the Obama administration's announcement that it is indeed abandoning the Polish and Czech sites, Moscow's complaining appears to have worked.
A Serious MistakeSeptember 17, 2009 / Stephen SzaboNew York Times Room for Debate BlogWhile not surprised by President Obama’s decision, I’m nonetheless very disappointed and think it’s a serious mistake. Leaders in Moscow, by comparison, must feel victorious. Coming days before Obama meets Dmitri Medvedev in New York and Pittsburgh , the decision clearly seems timed to remove from the U.S.-Russian agenda an issue that the Russians didn’t like — namely, that we were working with Poland and the Czech Republic on missile defense.
Our Pakistan ProblemSeptember 14, 2009 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardWhat national interest does the United States have in Afghanistan? According to recent polls, more and more Americans doubt there is any. This flagging support partly reflects the job the Obama administration has done explaining its goals and strategy in Afghanistan to a skeptical public. But it also reflects the underappreciated fact that succeeding in Afghanistan and defeating America's enemies there, as important as that is in its own right, is even more so for its effects in shaping Pakistan's future.
Germany shoots first and thinks againSeptember 09, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerThe Financial TimesThe night a German army colonel by the name of Georg Klein called in a massive Nato airstrike on two fuel trucks hijacked by Taliban fighters in northern Afghanistan was a watershed moment. Although the exact number of casualties is still unknown - estimates suggest more than 50 died - it seems likely that it will prove to have been, as one American newspaper put it, "the most deadly operation involving German forces since World War II". But will we also remember it as the night Germany grew up and started to call a war a war?Europe and the Obama BounceSeptember 09, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerThe New York TimesEuropean attitudes toward the United States have experienced up and downs during past decades - with significant drops in support during the Vietnam war, the Euromissile crisis of the early 1980s or the war in Kosovo in 1999. But never before in the history of trans-Atlantic polling have we seen the kind of plunge that took place under George W. Bush.
Fighting Chance Chapter 13: Europe and NatoSeptember 08, 2009 / Ian LesserFighting ChanceSeveral points are worth noting as context for discussing trends and shocks in Europe. First, the region is more dynamic than it appears. At first glance the Western Europe/North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) region seems relatively settled, with a reasonably predictable trajectory, few opportunities for conflict, and gradual social, economic, and political adjustments—a place of gentle trends and few shocks. Is this realistic?Angela Merkel: The World’s Most Powerful Woman?August 23, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerYou're a woman: that's nice, it does make a cabinet meeting look better these days. You have the brains, experience and b... er, guts for a top-echelon political job? Good, good. And you're - German. Oh dear. In politics (make that: in the workplace), German women remain about a decade behind their American, French or British counterparts. America, Sweden, Spain, Norway and Turkey, to name a few, have all had or currently have women as national security advisers, foreign ministers, defence ministers. Germany has had none of the above. You grew up in East Germany? (Pregnant pause.) You do realise that very few of you have made it into top politics at all since 1989, and most have disappeared again without a trace?Stelzenmüller becomes a GMF Senior Transatlantic FellowMay 04, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerConstanze Stelzenmüller, the Berlin office director of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), will become a Senior Transatlantic Fellow at GMF. In her new capacity Stelzenmüller will work on a broad spectrum of foreign and security policy issues.An Indian election primerApril 16, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign PolicyThe Indian elections beginning today will be the largest organized activity in human history (always true of Indian elections given the country's growing population). As many as 714 million eligible voters will be marking ballots for a new Indian parliament that will convene in June.Questions that Obama’s Af-Pak strategy doesn’t answerMarch 30, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyFellow Republicans have hailed President Obama's new strategy for Pakistan and Afghanistan. The new administration's strategy is welcome, both for its substance and, as importantly, for the profile it has given to the urgency of defeating the Taliban's resurgence in Afghanistan and its growing strength in Pakistan. But as with every strategy, it contains trade-offs and shortcomings that, after the warm glow that has accompanied the Washington establishment's reception of the president's plan has worn off, may become more apparent.Sarkozy’s decision ups pressure on ObamaMarch 14, 2009 / John K. GlennGlobalPostWhen Obama travels to Europe in early April, he will face questions on the economic crisis and about whether Europeans are willing to do more in Afghanistan. Complicating matters is French President Nicolas Sarkozy’s announcement that he will bring France back into the military wing of NATO, reversing Charles de Gaulle’s decision of 40 years ago.Playing defence, not offenceMarch 05, 2009 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceUS President Barack Obama is unlikely to come up with any trade initiatives soon, but he may be forced to make decisions.Germany’s Russia Question: A New Ostpolitik for EuropeMarch 03, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerForeign AffairsNow that Obama is president, will Germany respond to the call and join the United States as a key European partner in addressing global challenges and threats? Is Germany able and willing to use its considerable political resources to change Russia's behavior and to stand up to Moscow when necessary?Don’t Dumb Down AfghanistanFebruary 23, 2009 / Daniel Twining, Gary SchmittThe Weekly StandardReading tea leaves is a dangerous business when it comes to a new administration. There is always a fair amount of floundering around that comes from having too few senior people in place, unsettled -policymaking processes, and indecision over which campaign promises to keep and which to toss overboard. Take, for example, the Obama administration's policy toward Afghanistan. While running for president, Barack Obama promised that help was on its way in the form of thousands of additional troops; now President Obama appears to have put his own promised surge on hold.India needs a lot more love from ObamaFebruary 20, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign Policy, RealClearWorld.comIn 1998, President Clinton flew over Japan without stopping to spend nine days in China. This led to acute concern in Tokyo over "Japan passing" -- the belief that Washington was neglecting a key Asian ally in favor of the region's rising star, China. Is the same thing happening today -- not with Japan, destination of Secretary of State Hillary Clinton's first overseas trip, but with India?A U.S. Asia strategy for Hillary Clinton’s tripFebruary 15, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyHillary Clinton deserves kudos for making Asia her first trip as secretary of state. Generations of senior U.S. officials were trained and socialized as Atlanticists, a legacy of the centrality of Europe during the Cold War. However, it does not diminish our European allies to acknowledge that if the 20th century was an Atlantic century, the 21st century looks likely to be a Pacific one.Rousing Doha from its dozeFebruary 12, 2009 / Bruce StokesEuropean VoiceThe Doha round of global trade talks can be revived but the EU needs to help Obama. The recent uproar in Europe over the ‘Buy American' provisions in the US economic stimulus package has turned the transatlantic trade dialogue into a divisive, finger-pointing exercise aimed at forestalling protectionism rather than a collaborative effort to broaden trade liberalisation. If global commerce, which is shrinking at a near-record rate, is to be revived, advocates of trade must stop playing defence and re-double their efforts to finish the Doha round.The Big DealFebruary 01, 2009 / Bruce StokesWashington PostTo truly appreciate the historic scope of the $819 billion stimulus package moving through Congress, it helps to have covered the Hill when passage of the whole domestic budget could be stalled by something as picayune as a fight over $30 million for Alaska's pollock fishermen Don’t move the goalposts on AfghanistanJanuary 28, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyIf Iraq was "Bush's War," Afghanistan may well become "Obama's War." But as the New York Times reports today, the Obama administration is attempting to shift the goalposts in Afghanistan away from building a functioning democracy and toward the limited objective of denying terrorists sanctuary on Afghan soil.For Obama, the key to Russia is in BerlinJanuary 26, 2009 / Stephen SzaboFrankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungThe renewal of the transatlantic relationship is one of President Obama's most important tasks and America's partnership with Germany will be crucial for the administration's policy in Europe, especially Russia. Germany's warm relationship with Russia will play a key role in framing the next U.S. Russia policy. The full version of this article, written in German, is available for download below:
Foreign policy and war: Is Barack Obama an “Obamacon?”January 25, 2009 / Michael WerzHeinrich Boell StiftungIn his inaugural address, Barack Obama struck a conciliatory tone in foreign policy. The perhaps most important change in rhetoric from the former Administration is his decision not to talk about the "war on terror." Instead, he chose a descriptive phrase and spoke of a "network of violence and hatred," which must be combated. However, Obama supplemented this clear distinction from his predecessor's exaggerated rhetoric about war and staying the course with an emphatic reaffirmation of military force as a means to achieve freedom or prevent major calamity.
You were at the Inauguration; China was planning for warJanuary 22, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyWhile everyone here in the United States and beyond was focused on Barack Obama's Inauguration on Tuesday, China chose that day to slip this little item under the door -- China's National Defense in 2008, their annual white paper detailing plans for increased defense spending and military modernization.Obama to Europe: Ich bin ein listenerJanuary 21, 2009 / John K. Glenn, Kristin M. LordPoliticoBarack Obama's election was greeted with jubilation in many parts of the world, raising hopes that his personal appeal will translate into progress on a range of important issues: stabilizing and reconstructing Afghanistan, countering Iran's nuclear ambitions, resolving the global financial crisis, reaching an international climate change agreement and responding to a newly assertive Russia, among others.Country analysis: The end of the American century?January 20, 2009 / Michael WerzInternational Policy Analysis, Friedrich-Ebert-StiftungIn this issue of International Policy Analysis, GMF Transatlantic Fellow Michael Werz examines the phenomena surrounding Barack Obama, the consolidation of the Democratic party during the 90s, the impact of minority and first time voters, the challenges facing the Republican party, and interior as well as foreign policy aspirations for the new administration.
The Presidency of an apoliticalJanuary 18, 2009 / Michael WerzDer TagesspiegelNo picture documents the closing moments of George W. Bush's term better than the picture of him on the morning of September 11, 2001, at an elementary school in Sarasota, Florida. He was reading to the students when his cheif of staff whispered the disaster that was transpiring in New York. At this moment, only six months into his term, his Presidency was over. The article, written in German for the Berlin daily newspaper Der Tagesspiegel, is available for download below:
Foreign policy challenges for the Obama administrationJanuary 01, 2009 / John K. GlennSIEPS European Policy AnalysisThis European Policy Analysis reviews the foreign policy challenges for the new U.S. administration. President Barack Obama faces a formidable set of international challenges including wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the prospect of a nuclear Iran, a resurgent Russia, and a short calendar for a new treaty on climate change. On each of these issues, Europeans have the potential to play a key role as allies. President Obama has called for the mending of relations with Europeans, but the ability of the United States and Europe to address these pressing foreign policy challenges will be constrained by the financial and economic crisis. This analysis will review the Obama administration's vision for foreign policy and analyze the major challenges on the foreign policy agenda, considering opportunities for U.S.-European engagement and looking ahead to prospects for the future.Who knew lunches would lead to gridlock?November 20, 2008 / Robert G. LiberatorePoliticoAs President-elect Barack Obama considers moving his agenda in a new atmosphere of bipartisanship, it is useful to reflect on the role weekly party caucus luncheons have played in the modern party-driven Senate, the institution that threatens Obama's agenda with partisan filibuster.The transatlantic marketplace and Obama: don’t be quick to celebrateNovember 03, 2008 / Joseph QuinlanSüddeutsche ZeitungIt's no secret that Europeans won't miss President Bush when he hands over the presidency to President-elect Barack Obama in January 2009. Because of the extremely unpopular, U.S.-led war in Iraq, the past eight years in transatlantic partnership have been tenuous, and the general impression is that the years following this administration can only improve.
Putin’s Great EmpireOctober 09, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichInternationale PolitikUnfortunately, the Russian Georgia war confirmed that, beyond the constitution and even as prime minister, Putin is still the political leader in Russia and will be so for some time. The war indicated more parallels to the expanding Russian empire of the 19th century than of the USSR after the Second World War when the Soviet Union's main interest in Europe was to consolidate the frontiers. Today's revisionistic Russia in contrast to the the static Soviet Union pursuits to newly revise its frontiers in the European Post Sovitic space. This is driven by an increasing Russian Neonationalism. Europe, in particular, is required to readjust its Russia policy to formulate a robust economic response.
New Plumbing, New Purposes – Rebuilding the Atlantic AllianceOctober 05, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichThe American Interest November/DecemberUnconventional MeasuresOctober 01, 2008 / Michael WerzKommuneIf only the impressions counted that were produced during the Democratic convention in Denver, Barack Obama would have won the lections already. But Optimism alone does not secure victory. The return to old formula to which John McCain's campaigns intends to score is also blocked. Never before the American minorities have been such an important part of the Presidential election. The full article is available in German for download below:Principles in the pipeline: Managing transatlantic values and interests in Central AsiaOctober 01, 2008 / Alexander CooleyInternational AffairsAfter 9/11 the Central Asian states hosted coalition military bases and became important security partners for operations in Afghanistan. The rising price of oil and gas, coupled with a renewed western concern about its energy security, made the development and export of Central Asian production a much more pressing commercial and strategic priority for Brussels and Washington than it was in the 1990s. A region that was effectively ignored for over a decade has now become a vital area of transatlantic interest.
Climate Change and GeopoliticsOctober 01, 2008 / Michael WerzHeinrich Böll StiftungOne of the consequences of climate change is the dearth or excess of water. Both do not only present imminent danger to many human beings but also present a major threat to the global military balance. Global warming, for example, is of concern to the U.S. Navy at all coasts.A balance of power askewSeptember 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffDie ZEITIt matters less than it used to what NATO promises new member states or candidate countries. Russia is no longer easily deterred. It's never been a secret that Russia objects to NATO enlargement, especially when it comes to countries bordering its own territory. Post-soviet Russia was initially poor and weak. Russia has since become rich, authoritarian, and has discovered new weapons in gas and oil. At the same time, America is overstretched.
An Election for the 21st CenturySeptember 18, 2008 / Michael WerzItalianieuropeiAn analysis of the U.S. Election, written in Italian for Italianieuropei, the Foundation of Political Culture in Rome, Italy.Finding Out Truth about Georgian WarSeptember 17, 2008 / Michael WerzRealClear WorldLast week Senator Hillary Clinton called for a congressional commission to investigate the origins of the Georgian war. It is the latest skirmish in an intellectual battle over how a little war in farway Georgia started and what it mean for US policy for years. There are clashing narratives of what happened and what it means.
Europeans and Americans: Why Europe prefers Obama to McCainSeptember 10, 2008 / Francois LafondAffari Internazionali2007-08 has been a time of changes and mutation. Sen. Barack Obama's trip to Europe gave us an appetizer of a potential new era of cooperation between U.S. and European countries. One cycle will end, but we still do not know who will be in charge of writing the new one. Data from the last seven years of Transatlantic Trends can help us understand where we are and perhaps where we are going.
Russia warms to the West no moreAugust 26, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffSüddeutsche ZeitungGerman policy vis a vis Russia needs to be rethought. There is no longer a basis for Germany's "Strategic Partnership" with Russia. The occupation of parts of Georgia is a game changer. In 1996, Chancellor Helmut Kohl offered the Russians a deal: Nato would allow the Central and Eastern European countries to join while Russia would be offered to gradually integrate into Western and global institutions. Germany would anker this common western policy. The argument was: Integration would make Russia safer and richer. The strategy has worked: Russia is safe and rich. Yet it is choosing a different path: it wants to be rich, authoritarian and a bully vis a vis its neighbors.NATO’s HourAugust 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe Wall Street Journal EuropeRussia's invasion of Georgia is a game changer. This war is part of a Russian strategy of roll-back and regime change on its borders. The more evidence that comes in, the clearer it is becoming that this is a conflict Moscow planned, prepared for and provoked -- a trap Tbilisi unfortunately walked into. A core Western assumption since 1991 -- that Moscow would never again invade its neighbors -- has been shattered. As Moscow basks in its moment of nationalistic triumphalism, the West needs to take steps to prevent further Russian moves from spreading instability to others parts of Europe.
Naive MiscalculationsAugust 15, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichFrankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungThe Russian military overreaction to Georgian occupation of Tskhinvali will change the German and European relationship with Russia. Europe's helplessness and America's inability to pose a military presence in the Caucasus represents a new geopolitical order in which Russia has yet again established the power to redraw the contours of Europe, going far beyond just its energy distribution power. Russia's agression offers an opportunity for Germany to develop a new Russia policy. Instead of Germany's special relationship with Russia, it seems as though closer cooperation with East European EU members and America could have greater success.
A Hot Proxy War: Moscow’s Power PoliticsAugust 11, 2008 / Jörg HimmelreichDer SpiegeThe rapid escalation of the conflict in South Ossetia shows just how much the crisis suits all parties involved. Georgia wants to integrate itself into the West, and Russia wants to prevent just that. The welfare of the South Ossetians plays no role whatsoever.
Politics beats economics, againJuly 30, 2008 / Jack ThurstonThe GuardianWhoever's to blame for the collapse of the Doha round, one thing's for sure ? we'll all have to live with the consequences.Obama’s European trip pays offJuly 25, 2008 / Michael WerzTages-AnzeigerGMF Transatlantic Fellow Michael Werz examines the odd choice by Obama to campaign for America's presidency from abroad and the success with which it was received by the people of Berlin. This interview is in German.Groß ist die HoffnungJuly 23, 2008 / Stephen SzaboSueddeutsche ZeitungDr. Stephen Szabo, Executive Director of the Transatlantic Academy at the German Marshall Fund, discusses Senator Barack Obama's visit to Berlin, Germany and greater Europe. The article is written in German.EU-US scholar: Obama may not be the easy partner Europe hopes forJuly 23, 2008 / Francois LafondEurActive.comAmid their 'Obamania', Europeans tend to overlook that on certain issues like trade, a President Obama pressured by a Democrat-led Congress could be a more difficult partner in pushing for a common agenda, Francois Lafond of the German Marshall Fund told EurActiv in an interview.We’re quick to damn the US but slow to see our own faultsJuly 20, 2008 / Constanze StelzenmuellerThe ObserverPresident Obama is finally coming to Europe! All right, the Americans haven't elected him ... yet. But that's a mere technicality as far as we're concerned. We made up our minds long ago: our President is Barack Obama.Democracy and a Piece of ClothingJuly 18, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffPostGlobal, Washington PostFrance has rejected a citizenship application from a burqa-wearing Moroccan woman on the grounds that she has "insufficiently assimilated" to French culture. Should cultural assimilation be a requirement for citizenshipA War The West Must StopJuly 15, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe Washington PostThere is war in the air between Georgia and Russia. Such a war could destabilize a region critical for Western energy supplies and ruin relations between Russia and the West. A conflict over Georgia could become an issue in the U.S. presidential campaign. How they respond could become a test of the potential commander-in-chief qualities of Barack Obama and John McCain.“America, this is our Moment” – Barack Obama writes historyJuly 01, 2008 / Michael WerzKommuneNothing has been decided as of yet with regard to the new occupant of the White House. Nevertheless major changes have happened in US society already. When Barack Obama declared himself Democratic candidate for the Presidency on June 3rd in front of 17,000 enthusiastic supporters in St. Paul, Minnesota, American history seemed to take place in fast motion. The nomination of the first black candidate for the highest office evoked three centuries of American history and at the same time documented the astonishing path this nation has taken.America must correct course: a conversation with Helmut SchmidtJuly 01, 2008 / Thomas Kleine-BrockhoffThe American InterestThomas Kleine-Brockhoff, the senior director for policy programs at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, recently met with former German Finance Minister and Chancellor Helmut Schmidt in his Hamburg office on behalf of The American Interest to discuss the United States and the world economy.
What We Can Learn From SwedenJune 21, 2008 / Bruce StokesNational JournalIn the early 1990s, Sweden experienced the worst financial crisis suffered by any industrial country since the Depression. The Swedish banking collapse wiped out fortunes, cost taxpayers a staggering amount of money, and may have permanently reduced the country’s standard of living. Thus, as Washington watches Wall Street’s slow-motion meltdown, Stockholm may have much to teach the next president about weathering banking tsunamis.
U.S. Needs Alliance With EuropeJune 18, 2008 / Jack MartinThe Wichita EagleAs President Bush made his farewell tour of Europe, one could almost be forgiven for thinking the continent had become an afterthought for the United States. Yet such a view would ignore the fact that a strong trans-Atlantic alliance is needed now more than ever, as America shares many more values, challenges and goals with the democracies of Europe than with any other nations.
Get involved over Georgia or invite a warJune 03, 2008 / Jack MartinFinancial TimesThe west could be sleepwalking into a war on the European continent. Georgia, which burst into view with a moving display of democratic ambition during the Rose Revolution of 2003, is teetering on the brink of war with Russia over the separatist Georgian enclave of Abkhazia. The outcome of this crisis will help determine the rules of the post-cold-war security system. But western diplomats are notsending strong enough signals to either side.
The Dalai ObamaJune 03, 2008 / Constanze StelzenmuellerSüddeutsche ZeitungBarack Obama drums up admiration in Germany as only the Dalai Lama can do, but the end of this euphoria is foreseeable. As America chooses, the world looks on. The next man at the helm of America will determine global politics like none other. In this sense, won't he in fact become the world's President? He's pretty much there, at least that's so far the case in Germany.
Turkey, Closer to the U.S. than EuropeJune 01, 2008 / Michael WerzHeinrich Böll StiftungIf you compare the geographical distances from Ankara, Los Angeles is 11,000 Kilometers removed, whereas Berlin is a mere one-fifth of that distance. This proximity Germany and Turkey should offer great opportunities to each other's societies. But if one compares the political debates vis-à-vis Turkey in Germany and the United States, the relationship of distance and proximity reverses itself. (Written in German)
As Farm Bill Nears Vote, Bush Presses for Fewer SubsidiesMay 04, 2008 / Dan MorganWashington PostPresident Bush's decision in 2002 to sign a farm bill loaded with billions of dollars of new agricultural subsidies triggered considerable criticism from GOP conservatives true to the party's anti-spending philosophy. Now, as Congress nears final agreement on a new five-year farm bill that will cost nearly $300 billion, the president has taken a harder line. Emboldened by soaring food prices and record farm profits, he has pressed Congress to cut farm subsidies sharply and has made clear that he will veto the popular bill if lawmakers do not meet his demands.
A counterrevolutionaryMay 01, 2008 / Michael WerzKommuneAs the Democratic nomination of a presidential candidate captivates the United States, the Republican race is already settled. But the headstrong outsider John McCain is still being identified with the unpopular President George Bush. And many of his political positions have not yet been clarified and he has a number of foes in his own party. Will he be able to unite the disparate parts of the party? This article is written in German. Emptying the BreadbasketApril 29, 2008 / Dan MorganWashington PostAt Stephen Fleishman's busy Bethesda shop, the era of the 95-cent bagel is coming to an end. Breaking the dollar barrier "scares me," said the Bronx-born owner of Bethesda Bagels. Fleishman and his customers are hardly alone. Across America, turmoil in the world wheat markets has sent prices of bread, pasta, noodles, pizza, pastry and bagels skittering upward, bringing protests from consumers.
The Schism Between Washington and BerlinApril 25, 2008 / Dan MorganFrankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungWhat happened at the NATO Summit in Bucharest is gradually becoming clear. This summit was the most dramatic since Madrid 11 years ago, and, if it becomes dramatic, it could either be a success or not matter whatsoever. A dramatic debate can lead to something new or lead to an uncertain stillstand. In Bucharest it was probably the latter. (This article is written in German)
The End of the End of HistoryApril 22, 2008 / Robert KaganThe New RepublicGMF Transatlantic Fellow Robert Kagan gives five reasons as to why the twenty-first century will look like the nineteenth.
“Preventing the next Cold War” revisitedApril 21, 2008 / Andrew SmallDe Volkskrant
The war in Iraq may yet prove to have one lasting and little-noticed benefit: reducing the threat of a new cold war between the United States and China. The weakening of the U.S. global power position that the war induced has led officials in the second Bush administration to turn again and again to seek the support of the country that they labeled a strategic competitor only a few years earlier.
Brown, Black, White: Americans Vote and Discover a New ContinentApril 11, 2008 / Michael WerzKommuneUsually nominations and elections decide about the future of a society. However, much to the surprise of many American, in the United States an intensive conversation about the status quo has begun. This has to do with the monumental changes in race relations that have become highlighted in the Democratic nomination process; transformations that before might not been so visible. The yearlong battle has opened out into a cultural self-reflection of national proportions and resulted in an unbelievable political mobilization. (In German)
India’s relations with Iran and Myanmar: “Rogue state” or responsible democratic stakeholder?April 10, 2008 / Daniel TwiningIndia ReviewWhat kind of great power will India become as it rises in the twenty-first century? Indian foreign policy today embodies the contradictions and ambiguities stemming from India's ongoing evolution from a nonaligned, developing nation into one of the world's most powerful democracies. Rethinking NATO Partnerships for the 21st CenturyApril 01, 2008 / Daniel TwiningNATO ReviewSecurity threats today are globalised and non-traditional. It’s time for NATO’s partnerships to follow suit.
Supping at the WTO’s Last Chance SaloonMarch 27, 2008 / Daniel TwiningEuropean Voice, Editorial & OpinionThe global credit squeeze has made the world's economics ministers understandably jittery. But the crisis unfolding over world trade is far more serious. With the Doha Round of talks at the WTO at a standstill, now the unthinkable could happen. The global trading system may be abandoned.China’s changing policies towards rogue statesMarch 18, 2008 / Andrew SmallTestimony before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission (USCC)
Chinese policy towards rogue states has undergone a quiet revolution in the last few years. While China is far from being a genuinely like-minded partner to the United States in dealing with these countries, its cooperation is becoming an increasingly central factor in diplomatic efforts to find solutions to the crises in North Korea, Iran, Sudan, and Burma. The testimony sets out the nature of the shift in Chinese policy, the driving factors, the constraints on its scope, and the implications for U.S. policy.The Copenhagen Consensus: Reading Adam Smith in DenmarkMarch 01, 2008 / Andrew SmallForeign Affairs, March/April 2008A new catastrophe for the boat peopleFebruary 21, 2008 / Elizabeth BeckerThe Boston GlobeLe Dung was 7 when his family bought passage on a rickety boat and fled the communist government of Vietnam for parts unknown. That was 30 years ago, when the plight of the Vietnamese boat people filled newspapers as one of the most dramatic stories coming out of the Cold War in Asia, and the United Nations convened a special conference to find them homes. Today these former boat people endure further misfortune after their homes were destroyed by Hurricane Katrina.Atlantic Faces InterviewFebruary 18, 2008 / Elizabeth BeckerAtlantic-Community.org: Atlantic Faces InterviewGMF provides me with the unique opportunity to work on these issues in partnership with other top-notch institutions in the US and Europe. I am convinced that fostering these networks of transatlantic thinkers and opinion-makers not only strengthens the relationship between the US and Europe in general, but also provides intellectual input outside the realm of government that can avert conflict and in turn inform policy decisions.
The Democrats in ’08: Clinton and Obama struggle between experience and changeFebruary 01, 2008 / Michael WerzKommuneSince World War II, the quarrels within the democratic party during the primaries have attracted attention because the party was known for destroying itself while trying to find a suitable candidate for the most important position in the world. Why, in the seemingly endless campaigns from 2007 and 2008, does everything appear to be different this time around? GMF Transatlantic Fellow Michael Werz explains the reasons in this article for Kommune.
The Baltic ModelJanuary 16, 2008 / Michael WerzWall Street JournalIt is difficult to recall today the West's hostility in the early 1990s toward Baltic membership in NATO and the European Union. At a time when even embracing Poland was controversial, the aspirations of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia were considered nutty if not outright dangerous. Moscow's reaction was even worse.ACPs and EPAs: where’s the beef?January 03, 2008 / Michael WerzTrade Negotiations InsightsNow that the Doha round appears to be stirring back to life, some of the world's poorest countries should be looking to multilateralism to protect their interests with a renewed sense of urgency.Is our aid making us safer?January 02, 2008 / Jim KolbeBaltimore SunIt is increasingly apparent that our aid - and trade - policies are not really supporting economic growth in impoverished countries. Nor are they enhancing our own security.The U.S. Factor in Sino-European RelationsDecember 01, 2007 / Andrew SmallChina-EU: A Common Future
For Europe and China alike, the most important bilateral relationship is with the United States. Although often described as a ‘strategic triangle’, neither the Chinese impact on the transatlantic relationship nor Europe’s role in the Sino-US relationship is remotely comparable to the significance of the United States for the Sino-European relationship.American Islam: A pluralistic didactic play in religious garbNovember 29, 2007 / Michael WerzKommuneApproximately six million Muslims live in the United States. The story of their immigration is one of diversity and a further example of American plurality. The terrorist attacks of 2001 did not produce a general mood against Muslims, but rather, paradoxically, accelerated the movement for societal and political participation of a dynamic Muslim community.Is There A West?October 30, 2007 / Stephen SzaboThe GlobalistGlobalization has meant that a global public is emerging through the vast expansion of the mass media. Genocide cannot occur unnoticed for long. Human rights are now a rationale for the intervention into what used to be the internal affairs of sovereign states.
The NATO intervention into Kosovo established the principle of limited sovereignty - and this was done without a UN mandate. As former British Prime Minister Tony Blair stated in a speech he gave in Chicago in 1999 during the Kosovo conflict, the Kosovo intervention was a "just war" because it was not based on any territorial ambitions - but rather upon values.
Corporate farming’s best friend – how the poor protect agribusiness’s subsidiesOctober 22, 2007 / Elizabeth BeckerWashington PostWhy has the reform movement been such a flop? Because most members of Congress won't be thinking about farms when they vote for the farm bill. They'll be voting for the only part of the program that matters to them: food stamps -- one of the last safety nets for the millions of poor who are their constituents.Beyond Suspicion: Rethinking U.S.-Turkish RelationsOctober 19, 2007 / Ian LesserWoodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, Southeast Europe ProjectDr. Ian Lesser, a senior Transatlantic Fellow at GMF, has written a new book analyzing the current challenges facing the U.S.-Turkish relationship, examining the growing friction between the United States and Turkey, and exploring ways to rebuild and reshape bilateral ties. It is available for download as a PDF.
Playing the America CardOctober 01, 2007 / Daniel TwiningWeekly StandardChina's rise in Asia and the world is one of the big stories of our time. Goldman Sachs predicts that China's economy will be bigger than America's in two decades. From Shanghai to Singapore, one hears whispers of a "new Chinese century" recalling the Sino-centric hierarchy of traditional Asia. Yet China's geopolitical ascent is creating what Mao Zedong would have termed a "contradiction": China's rising power makes the United States increasingly important to nearly every Asian nation, including China itself.
Corn Farms Prosper, but Subsidies Still FlowSeptember 28, 2007 / Dan MorganWashington PostThose annual automatic payments to Handsaker and thousands of other prospering corn growers have long been controversial. But coming at a time when taxpayers are already subsidizing the ethanol industry to the tune of $3 billion a year, the double-barreled support system for those who grow corn and those who turn it into fuel has begun to draw fire in Congress.
Border WarsSeptember 01, 2007 / Philippe LegrainWorthDoes immigration reform dig a gigantic money pit, or does it open the floodgates of fiscal opportunity? Counterpoint to article by Robert Rector of the Heritage Foundation.
Failure as a ChanceAugust 28, 2007 / Constanze StelzenmuellerRheinischer MerkurHilary Clinton's rise to become most promising female presidential candidate stems from her husband's mistakes, when she rediscovered herself and learned from her mistakes as First Lady.
The Next InterventionAugust 06, 2007 / Robert KaganWashington PostIs the United States out of the intervention business for a while? With two difficult wars in Iraq and Afghanistan and a divided public, the conventional answer is that it will be a long time before any American president, Democrat or Republican, again dispatches troops into conflict overseas.
The Return of HistoryAugust 05, 2007 / Robert KaganLos Angeles TimesDespite hopes that the the world would be different after the Cold War, nationalism and ideology are back.Does Joining the EU Strengthen Central and Eastern Europe’s Transatlantic Ties?August 01, 2007 / Robert KaganCQ Global ResearcherAt the end of the Cold War, a new map of Europe began to emerge from the rubble of the Berlin Wall. Successive U.S. administrations have sought to create a new Europe that was peaceful, democratic and undivided.Farm Bill Leaves Some SubsidiesJuly 19, 2007 / Dan MorganWashington PostFarm bloc lawmakers yesterday offered the U.S. fruit and vegetable industry $1.8 billion in new federal grants over the next five years as part of a farm bill that would leave in place far larger subsidies for grain, cotton and dairy producers.End of Dreams, Return of HistoryJuly 18, 2007 / Robert KaganHoover Institute Policy ReviewThe world has become normal again. The years immediately following the end of the Cold War offered a tantalizing glimpse at a new kind of international order, with nations growing together or disappearing altogether, ideological conflicts melting away, cultures intermingling through increasingly free commerce and communications.Foreign Fathers: The Idea of the Marshall Plan is still in EffectJuly 08, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichFrankfurter Allgemeine ZeitungThe Marshall Plan was introduced sixty years ago. On June 5th, 1947, then American Foreign Minister General George Catlett Marshall announced in a speech at Harvard University the plan for an American help program for the reconstruction of the destroyed European economy, a program which from then on would bear his name. This article is available in English and original German.
A Slow Demise in the DeltaJune 20, 2007 / Dan MorganWashington PostFrom 2001 to 2005, the federal government spent nearly $1.2 billion in agricultural subsidies to boost farmers' incomes and invigorate local economies in this poverty-stricken region of the Mississippi Delta.The Democrats’ Democracy ProblemJune 17, 2007 / Dan MorganWashington PostDemocrats today have a problem with democracy. We have lost our voice on the issue of promoting democracy abroad -- which means that what was once a core Democratic foreign policy idea is being ceded to the GOP.
Switching to Biofuels Could Cost a Lot of GreenJune 08, 2007 / Dan MorganWashington PostAs President Bush and congressional leaders rally support for their ambitious biofuel proposals, one ingredient is often left unstated: the cost. This article was cowritten with Steven MufsonAmerica’s Grand Design in AsiaMay 31, 2007 / Daniel TwiningWashington QuarterlyIn a dynamic Asian order featuring new centers of power, China's rise will naturally challenge Washington's ability to protect its interests in the region. In 2000, presidential candidate George W. Bush labeled China as the United States' leading strategic and military competitor. In September 2005, Deputy Secretary of State Robert Zoellick explicitly warned Beijing not to "maneuver toward a predominance of power" in Asia, suggesting that it was doing exactly that.Better Than NothingMay 17, 2007 / Philippe LegrainForeign PolicyThe new U.S. immigration bill drafted by leading Democratic and Republican senators is a deeply political bargain that has been hammered out over months, and it shows: The result is a 380-page Frankenstein.The Club of CompetitorsMay 07, 2007 / Stefan TheilNewsweek InternationalIf the reports are on target, Europe will grow faster than America in 2007-for the first time in six years. European Union countries created 2 million new jobs last year, cutting unemployment to its lowest since 1991. Better, growth is no longer confined to outliers like Britain, Spain or the Baltic mini-states. Europe's resurgence is driven by the behemoth at the continent's heart, Germany.The future of America lies in MiamiMay 01, 2007 / Michael WerzKommuneSuprisingly, more than half the Latino vote went to George Bush, helping him win the Presidency. As the largast ethnic lobbying body gathered in Miami for their yearly conference, Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama find themselves in a neck-to-neck race for the Democratic nomination. The Republican candidates have preferred to stay out of the public's eye. Recent immigration reform failed due to conservative populism and now the mood among America's Latinos more heated than ever before. (Article in German)
Germany has been celebrating Europe's 50th birthday, and itself: Hooray, we're a normal country again, with a normal foreign policy! Indeed, Germany has come a long way in this half century. And Angela Merkel has done much to reestablish it in its old role as a balancer and mediator in Europe, as well as within the transatlantic relationship.
Can the Development Agenda Save the Doha Round?April 01, 2007 / Constanze StelzenmuellerBRIDGES Monthly ReviewWhile it is frequently bemoaned that designating the Doha Round as a 'development round' has made the negotiations more difficult, the designation may offer the only solution to the larger questions of legitimacy and credibility facing the WTO and the global trade regime.From Iran to Israel: American Choices in IraqApril 01, 2007 / Ian LesserAfkar IdéesThis article discusses the challenges facing the US in the broader Middle East, four years after the Iraq war. It highlights the implications of a more chaotic strategic environment for the region, the risk of multiple "civil wars," and the opportunity costs with regard to the Palestinian-Israeli crisis and other issues. It was written for the French publication Afkar Idées and is written in French. The full article is available for download below:
Vladimir Putin: The Gasman is comingMarch 25, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltGMF Fellow Jörg Himmelreich analyzes Russia's strategy of implementing gas and oil as weapons - and warns against falling into their propaganda maneuver regarding the U.S. missile defense system. Written for the German daily Die Welt, the article is in original German.The Rewards of a Larger NATOFebruary 19, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichWashington PostThe critics were wrong when they opposed adding nations to the alliance in the 1990s, and they are still wrong. In fact, the more time that passes, the better the arguments in favor of enlargement look. There were basically three reasons for expanding NATO, and each has been proved right.
NATO must go global to have a meaningful purposeFebruary 06, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichFinancial TimesWhen western security experts gather this weekend in Munich to discuss the future of Nato at their annual security conference, they will be considering an Atlantic alliance that faces two rather stark choices: re-reinvent itself to handle the threats of a new century, or watch itself drift slowly into strategic marginalisation.Why We Need A New Transatlantic OstpolitikFebruary 01, 2007 / Jörg HimmelreichDie ZeitIt is time for a debate across the Atlantic about a new Eastern policy. The Russia we face today is a different one than what we hoped for. EU and NATO policy toward an enlarged Europe's new neighborhood needs to be rethought. And the United States and Europe need to get their act together on energy policy. With leadership changes coming up in Paris, London and Washington, the time is ripe to get out our laptops and debate the framework for a new policy. Strong response to Putin’s Russia overdueJanuary 09, 2007 / Robin ShepherdFinancial TimesAs Russia and Belarus sought to blame each other on Monday over the suspension of oil supplies through the northern leg of the Druzhba oil pipeline to Poland and Germany, Europe might well have paused to take stock of its own share of responsibility for the latest threat to its energy security.
The New Great Game: Why the Bush administration has embraced IndiaDecember 20, 2006 / Daniel TwiningThe Weekly StandardThree recent events illuminate the contours and fault lines of Asia's emerging strategic landscape, amid the lengthening shadows cast by China's growing power.Gesucht: Magischer BundNovember 25, 2006 / Constanze StelzenmuellerDie ZEITAt this year's NATO Summit in Riga, coalition partners are debating how to best modernize NATO, but it is a moot question, especially when coalition partners are stumbling in the military campaign in Afghanistan. This article is in written in German.
Turkey, the United States and the Delusion of GeopoliticsNovember 14, 2006 / Ian LesserSurvivalTurkey and Turkish-US relations have been prisoners of a narrow concept of geopolitics. The key questions are not geographic - whether Turkey is a bridge or a barrier, a flank or a front - but how Turkey will act, and whether Turkish and American policies are convergent or divergent.The Whirlwind Angie-George WaltzNovember 01, 2006 / Ian LesserAtlanticChancellor Angela Merkel and President George W. Bush seem to get along splendidly. But the German public remains critical of the U.S., and will be watching closely to see who is leading whom.Cowboy Nation: Against the myth of American innocenceOctober 23, 2006 / Robert KaganThe New RepublicThese days, we are having a national debate over the direction of foreign policy. Beyond the obvious difficulties in Iraq and Afghanistan, there is a broader sense that our nation has gone astray.
America is pursuing a grand design in AsiaSeptember 25, 2006 / Daniel TwiningFinancial TimesAsia’s strong states will shape the future of international politics more than the weak states and terrorists of Afghanistan, Iraq and Lebanon.Towards a Better DealAugust 01, 2006 / Ann TutwilerGlobal Subsidies Intiative, Sudsidy Watch, Issue 3The crash of the World Trade Organization (WTO) talks was greeted with muted cheers by some protected farmers in wealthy countries, some even buying new tractors to celebrate yet another failure to produce a more efficient and just global marketplace.A Question of Destiny in the 21st CenturyJuly 14, 2006 / Jörg HimmelreichDie WeltThe main topic of the G8 summit in St. Petersburg will be the question of energy security. How can the peaceful worldwide distribution of nonrenewable energy resources, such as oil and natural gas, be secured? The answer to this question will decisively shape the global order of the 21st century. (In original German and English translation)E.U.’s Reforms Similar to Trends Seen in U.S. Agriculture PolicyJuly 01, 2006 / Ilene GrossmanStateline ExpressEuropean agriculture policy is undergoing a transformation. In 2003, wide-ranging changes began to take Europe’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in a direction that tied government payments less to production and focused more on rural development and environmental initiatives.
Trading UpJune 26, 2006 / Ann TutwilerThe New York TimesAfter protests, walk-outs, missed deadlines and deadlock, trade negotiators in Geneva have been moving toward a deal on agricultural subsidies and tariffs that could clear the way for a world trade agreement.American Philanthropic Foundations: Emerging Actors of Globalization and Pillars of the Transatlantic DialogueMay 29, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierReport presented at Annual Bank Conference on Development Economics, organized in Tokyo by the World Bank and the Ministry of Finance of Japan from May 29-30, 2006.This policy paper illustrates the increase in power of American philanthropic foundations in discussions dealing with globalization, in particular financing for development and Global Public Goods.
The reform of the IMF: the tree which hides the forestMay 09, 2006 / Benoît ChervalierThe International Monetary Fund (IMF) faces an identity crisis. Many member governments feel that the IMF is not responsive to their needs and that they lack the voice and vote, in other words, the influence, to bring about the institution.Next Step for NATOMarch 14, 2006 / Richard HolbrookeThe Washington PostIn the new global security environment, NATO has to address the gravest threats to its members’ collective security.The Touch, and Clout, of Merkel and RiceFebruary 28, 2006 / Ulrike Guérot, Marta DassùFinancial TimesIs there a female touch at work in foreign policy? Most powerful women would probably deny this and consider the hypothesis thinly veiled discrimination. And yet, meeting in Berlin for an Aspen Conference, we decided to speculate a bit.Background paper: Merkel’s Foreign PolicyFebruary 24, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotDelivered at "Transatlantic Dialogue," hosted in Berlin by Aspen Institute Italy, February 24 and 25, 2006.Much to everyone’s surprise, the new Chancellor Angela Merkel had a glorious start in foreign policy. Within only a couple of weeks, she smoothed out the formerly strained relations with the U.SContain Iran: Admit Israel to NATOFebruary 21, 2006 / Ulrike GuérotThe Washington PostThe choice of how to respond to Iran’s growing threat to the West in general and Israel in particular is not an easy one.Mother mercantilismJanuary 01, 2006 / Jack ThurstonProspect Magazine
To leaven the mood at the opening session of the WTO ministerial conference in Hong Kong in mid-December, Pascal Lamy, the WTO’s newly installed director general, pulled a magic wand from his breast pocket. Progress has been so slow and the main protagonists dug in to such seemingly irreconcilable positions that Lamy, who has the unenviable task of brokering a final deal, could be forgiven for resorting to sorcery.
But if he had been looking for a prop to sum up the overall mood of the delegates and observers arriving in Hong Kong, Lamy might well have brandished a stethoscope. After the acrimonious walkout by developing countries at the last summit in Cancún in 2003, the main objective for the WTO this time around was survival. The diminishing of expectations to such a low level was profoundly depressing, particularly in a year when the British government threw the weight of its twin presidencies of the G8 and the EU behind the trade justice movement.
The good news is that the WTO did survive Hong Kong, and its 149 members agreed a text which includes a small measure of progress towards a final deal. The new text is less than spectacular, but everyone agreed to keep talking, and to hold a Hong Kong 2 in Geneva in the spring. The bad news is that there is an enormous amount still to do, and not much time in which to do it.
The EU delegation came to Hong Kong expecting the worst. In the late summer "bra wars," Peter Mandelson had flunked his first major test as EU trade commissioner, and over the months that followed, the US consistently outmanoeuvred the EU in the build-up to Hong Kong. If America's multibillion-dollar cotton subsidies, so crippling to poor west African farmers, had made the US the villain at Cancún, it did not seem impossible that fortress Europe would carry the can for a potentially fatal breakdown at Hong Kong. This is because progress in agriculture, the sector of the world economy most heavily distorted by trade barriers and most important to developing countries, has become the prerequisite for progress in other areas like manufactured goods and services. Brazil, the world’s most competitive agricultural exporter and leader of the powerful G20 grouping of developing countries, recently turned its fire away from US cotton, corn and soybean subsidies and towards Europe’s farm tariffs.
Mandelson’s negotiating position has not been helped by a French government whose leaders – from President Chirac down – seem to relish the chance to strut on the world stage and belittle EU institutions by threatening to veto any trade deal which might require shaving a little of the fat from Europe’s bloated farm subsidy programmes. US negotiators face exactly the same kind of opposition from an increasingly protectionist congress, but the difference is that for the most part congress has had the good grace to refrain from using the handcuffs in such a public manner.
Facing isolation, Mandelson’s strategy in the early exchanges at Hong Kong was to go on the offensive. To the point of obsession, he criticised US "food aid" (see "Aid-dumping," Prospect July 2005), arguing that it serves the narrow interests of American farmers and aid charities more than the needs of the world's hungry. In a more subtle and effective move, he challenged the US, Japan and middle-income countries, including Brazil, to match the EU’s unilateral move to completely open its markets to the 50 least developed countries for all products other than armaments. Economists tell us that the benefits of trade liberalisation always outweigh the costs. While this may be the case as far as economics is concerned, with politics the reverse is closer to the truth.
The European Union has a political need to deliver on the GI issue during World Trade Organisation (WTO) talks to prove that there is a future for European farmers in high-quality, niche agriculture.
Winds of ChangeOctober 13, 2005 / John AudleyWallstreet Journal EuropeConfronted by strong political winds in the aftermath of two devastating hurricanes and gusts of hot air blowing off Capitol Hill, the Bush administration still has signaled the right message on global trade negotiations: Breaking the deadlock in the WTO’s Doha round of talks begins by taking initial steps to reform U.S. farm policy.Why Europe Will Run the 21st CenturySeptember 13, 2005 / Mark LeonardAfter launching in Europe earlier this year, Mark Leonard's Why Europe Will Run the 21st Century will be released for an American audience on September 13. Leonard wrote the book while serving as a Transatlantic Fellow with the German Marshall Fund in Washington, DC, and in it describes the European Union’s strength as a “transformative power.”America must make democracy a global causeSeptember 07, 2005 / Craig KennedyFinancial TimesPresident George W. Bush, in his second term inaugural speech, placed the promotion of democracy at the centre of the American foreign policy agenda. A recent GMF poll shows both Europeans and Americans supportive of democracy promotion.The EU Can Continue to Unite Without a ConstitutionAugust 01, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotEuropean AffairsNeither Albania nor Turkey will join the European Union if, when the time comes, the EU Presidency is still rotating among member governments, with each one taking a six-month stint at the reins. Either the European Union gets a constitution that streamlines its institutions, thereby abolishing the rotating presidency, or none of the long list of aspiring member countries is likely to enter the Union in the foreseeable future.Rethinking the EU: Why Washington Needs to Support European IntegrationAugust 01, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotSurvival; vol. 47, no. 3; Autumn 2005; pp. 93?102It is time for the United States to rethink its policy toward the European Union and European integration more broadly. The challenges of the twenty-first century and America’s changing priorities and strategic needs are making the United State more rather than less dependent on the EU and its success.Aid, not TradeJuly 01, 2005 / Jack ThurstonProspect Magazine