In the wake of Turkey's recent Constitutional Court decision over the country's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), GMF launched On Turkey.  An ongoing series of analysis briefs about Turkey's current political situation and its future. GMF provides regular analysis briefs by leading Turkish, European, and American writers and intellectuals, with a focus on dispatches from on-the-ground Turkish observers.  Writers include:

• Soli Ozel, a professor at Istanbul Bilgi University and a columnist for the national daily Sabah
• Amberin Zaman, Turkey correspondent for The Economist
• Ian Lesser, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow and a longtime Turkey follower at the State Department, RAND, and the Woodrow Wilson Center

In addition, periodic contributions from GMF scholars will put developments in Turkey into a transatlantic and international context.

Policy and Opinion Briefs 

360 Degrees Diplomacy
Written by Mitat Çelikpala
June 19, 2009
This piece analyses how the implications of the process that started with the "Five Days War" between Russia and Georgia led Turkey to develop an opening toward Armenia which would take Turkey to it's initial position after a 360 degrees turn.

Russia, Europe, Iran: Three Grand Strategic Issues in U.S.-Turkish Relations
Written by Ian Lesser
June 19, 2009
Three "meta" issues-Russia, Europe, and Iran-will pose key tests for U.S.-Turkish cooperation over the next few years.

Turkey and Azerbaijan: Passion, Principle, or Pragmatism?
Written by Nigar Göksel
June 4, 2009
Efforts toward normalization between Turkey and Armenia in April 2009 have brought to light ongoing tensions in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Though united by language and ethnicity, the potential for the realization of "one nation, two states" has brought forth resentments between the two countries. This brief addresses factors that contribute to questions including: What substantiates the Turkey-Azerbaijan relationship? And what is the rationale of this bond?

Turkey's Kurds: Toward a Solution?
Written by Amberin Zaman
June 4, 2009
The campaign for an independent Kurdish state by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has been termed Turkey's number one headache. While the PKK's attacks against the Turkish army have bolstered Turkish nationalism, Turkey's image has been tainted by its response to these assaults. In addition, Turkey's failure to resolve the issue with the Kurds has hindered the development of its democracy.

Divining Davutoglu: Turkey's Foreign Policy Under New Leadership
Written by Soli Ozel
June 4, 2009
This brief discusses a method for looking at Turkey's policies and how the country's goals may line up with those of its allies, including the United States.

Turkey and Armenia: Adjusting Expectations
Written by Nigar Göksel
May 18, 2009
In the months leading up to April 2009, Turkey's concern that the events of 1915 would be termed "genocide" dominated speculation as to when and how Turkey would normalize relations with Armenia. Turkey had linked these two prospects by making it clear that a U.S. genocide recognition would not only derail the process with Armenia but also threaten cooperation with the United States on various fronts.

GMF Fellow Lesser testifies on U.S.-Turkish relations before House committee
Ian Lesser
May 14, 2009
GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Dr. Ian O. Lesser testified on May 14 before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs. He outlined the new dynamics and next steps in U.S.-Turkish relations. Lesser's testimony is available for download.

Turkey's Cabinet Reshuffle: Another Balancing Act
Written by Amberin Zaman
May 11, 2009
On May 1, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his new cabinet ushering in nine new ministers and letting go of eight others. This dramatic reshuffle reflects Erdogan's hallmark strategy of balancing different and often competing constituents within his party.

Turkey and Armenia
Written by Amberin Zaman
April 17, 2009
After months of tortuous diplomacy, Turkey and Armenia have put the final touches to a deal that would establish diplomatic ties and re-open their borders. The agreement is poised to end decades of mutual hostility, to blunt Russian influence, and to help foster economic prosperity and democracy in the Southern Caucasus. It has been forged against a backdrop of mushrooming civil society initiatives aimed at overcoming decades of prejudice and deepening friendship between Turks and Armenians of all stripes. But stiff opposition from Azerbaijan, which is mobilizing Turkish public opinion against this move, could yet weaken Turkey's resolve and wreck an historic opportunity for peace in the region.

The Obama Visit and After: Changing Style and Substance in U.S.-Turkish Relations
Written by Ian Lesser
April 14, 2009
The visit of U.S. president, Barack Obama, to Turkey so early in his administration is significant. Just as significant is the fact that the visit came as part of high-profile European tour. Key topics on the bilateral agenda may have been Middle Eastern or Eurasian, but the policy dialogue in Ankara and Istanbul was a dialogue with a transatlantic partner.

The Electorate's Tune-up
Written by Soli Ozel
March 31, 2009
Elections are always a serious business in Turkey and the local elections that just took place were no exception. The electorate gave a stern warning to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and notably Prime Minister Erdogan, who ran an energetic but harsh, angry, and polarizing campaign. In light of the election results, the question before Turkey is what course the AKP will take, or to be more precise, how the Prime Minister will interpret the results and how he will respond.

Turkey and Obama: A Golden Age in Turkish U.S. Ties?
Written by Amberin Zaman
March 20, 2009
Despite the dramatic walkout by Turkey's prime minister from the World Economic Forum at Davos, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently made the announcement that President Barack Obama will visit the country next month. As Turkey's international profile rises as it embraces its role as a regional peacemaker, are Turkish-American relations entering a "golden era"?

Beyond Davos
Written by Soli Ozel
February 17, 2009
Despite the theatrics and the surge of anti-Israeli and anti-Semitic sentiment in Turkey, the government's positions suggest that Turkey still sees a role for itself in Middle East peacemaking, wants Israel to be more concerned about regional instability, and wishes to work with the United States if and when the new administration reengages with the region.

Turkey after Davos: Risks, Opportunities, and an Unpredictable Prime Minister
Written by Amberin Zaman
February 13, 2009
The dramatic walkout by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, from the World Economic Forum at Davos during a debate with the Israeli president has raised questions about Turkey's relations with the West and its role in the Middle East. Was his outburst simply rhetoric, or does it signify Turkey's shift away from the West?

Do We Understand Turkey?
Written by Ian Lesser
February 4, 2009
In mid January, I visited Turkey at the height of the Gaza crisis, with Turks captivated by the ongoing Ergenekon investigation, and on the eve of Barack Obama's inauguration. My discussions revealed deepening concerns, not just about the obvious effects of the global economic crisis, but also about the basic trajectory of Turkish society, governance, and foreign policy.

After Gaza: Rising anti-Semitism in Turkey?
Written by Amberin Zaman
January 29, 2009
Is Turkey's unusually harsh response, both official and public, to Israel's assault against Hamas in Gaza merely a reaction to Israel's policies? Or does it mirror latent anti-Semitism in Turkish society? These questions are increasingly being raised, especially among Jewish-American groups who are among Turkey's firmest friends in Washington.

The Back and Forth of Turkey's "Westernness"
Written by Soli Ozel
January 29, 2009
Whether or not Turkey is turning its back on the West is a frequently asked question and a common refrain, particularly after Turkey's reaction to Israel's assault against Hamas in Gaza. Turkey remains strategically Western-oriented and in fact the ongoing Ergenekon investigation reaffirms its Atlanticist credentials. What Turkey's Western allies must do is have a self-critical look at their record and then ask themselves whether the strategic "Westernness" of Turkey is enough.

Going in All Directions
Written by Soli Ozel
January 14, 2009
While simultaneously reacting to the conflict between Israel and Hamas and conducting another wave of arrests in the Ergenekon case, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey's prime minister, suddenly appointed Egemen Bağış as Turkey's chief EU negotiator. Time will tell if this indicates a rekindling of the EU accession process after nearly three years of lethargy and growing political and public disinterest.

Winning Kurdish Hearts and Minds: The Battle Shifts to the Airwaves
Written by Amberin Zaman
January 12, 2009
The launching of TRT-6, the first Kurdish language television channel on January 1, marked a historic turning point in Turkey's official stance toward the Kurds.

Two Roads Diverge in South Caucasus
December 5, 2008
Two roads diverge in the South Caucasus and the newly elected U.S. administration can take either one. On the one hand it can support steps for cooperation and can mark the very first example of the new world order by permanently ignoring the signals of domestic politics; or on the other hand it can prioritize domestic political pressures, thus contributing to fragility and instability in the region.

Don't legislate history
Written by Soli Ozel
December 5, 2008
In the Turkish-Armenian relationship, history is being used as a political weapon to settle scores. Turkey has shown great progress on the path toward reconciliation, but there are two more steps the Turkish government could take to warm the relationship once and for all.

Turkey and the Global Economic Crisis
Written by Ian Lesser
December 1, 2008
It is now apparent that the global economy is headed for a deep and prolonged crisis, with potentially dramatic consequences for emerging as well as developed markets. Turkey is in no sense decoupled from the effects of this global turmoil. Over the next few years, economic stress could have a dramatic effect on Turkey's internal and external scene, including regional security and the prospects for Turkish relations with the European Union and the United States.

Committed to Change, or Changing Commitments? Turkish-American Relations Under a New U.S. President
Written by Soli Ozel
November 17, 2008
Geopolitical realities seem to have once more elevated Turkey's importance in American foreign policy decisions. In the past, Turkey's strategic importance and America's reliance on it had an inverse relationship to the deepening of Turkish democracy.

Today, the stability of Turkey necessitates that the country maintain its democratic orientation and that all its political actors commit themselves to this goal. One of the major tests of the Obama administration in its relations with Turkey may very well be whether it will treat Turkish democracy as a fundamental good or an expendable one.

Turkey and the United States under Barack Obama: Yes They Can
Written by Amberin Zaman
November 13, 2008
As the world celebrates the recent election of Barack Obama, politicians in Ankara ponder what this will mean for their country. Obama's foreign policy vision suggests that Turkish fears are overblown, and that there exists a window of opportunity for reinforcing a strategic partnership with the United States in ways that can positively impact the region, if leaders on both sides show some imagination and avoid pitfalls that line the way.

As Turkey and Armenia inch toward reconciliation both sides talk the talk, but can they walk the walk?
Written by Amberin Zaman
October 2, 2008
When Turkey's President Abdullah Gül took the plunge on September 6 and became the first ever Turkish leader to set foot in Armenia, few were immune to the significance of the moment. Even Turkey's determinedly frosty diplomats began to thaw as they observed their president sitting next to his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan at the World Cup pre-qualifier football match pitting Turkey against Armenia.

The groundbreaking trip has raised expectations that after decades of mutual hostility Turkey and Armenia will bury the hatchet, establish formal ties, and re-open their borders. Hopes of a breakthrough have been heightened by the conflict in Georgia, which has refocused regional minds on the need for peace. Yet, amid all the euphoria there are worrying signs that this latest and most serious stab at reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia may come to naught.

Will Turkey Opt Out?
Written by Soli Ozel
September 15, 2008
Many of the developments that shake the world happen around Turkey, most notably Iraq, Iran, and Georgia. Both the Turkish state and nation feel the effects of political and military developments in the regions surrounding the country and the importance of the transatlantic alliance will be further highlighted through Turkey. America and the European Union would be well advised to treat Turkey as a valued member of the alliance and communicate to the Turkish public their intentions and policies in a more direct and constructive fashion.

Turkey and Transatlantic Trends: How Distinctive?
Written by Ian Lesser  
September 15, 2008
The Transatlantic Trends Key Findings Report summarizes the Turkish story in 2008. Recent conversations about the results in Ankara and Istanbul suggest some intriguing observations and open questions. The key divide in the Turkish debate is between those who remain attached to the active and "balanced" AKP foreign policy and those who wish to set more deliberate priorities, looking east or west. Many in Europe are weighing the Turkish case in light of past enlargement experience, with a sense that process and momentum are likely to outweigh public reservations. As almost half of Turkish respondents favored a unilateral approach to international issues, it is worth asking whether Turkish perspectives are not closer to those most often ascribed to Washington.

Hosting Ahmedinejad
Written by Sinan Ülgen
September 15, 2008
Last month, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad paid a working visit to Turkey. The fact that the Iranian President was hosted by the Turkish President Abdullah Gül is a sign of Ankara's willingness to become a more active player in the region. In the past few months, Turkish diplomacy scored a few visible successes in the Middle East. Ankara played an instrumental role in bringing about an end to the factional strife in Lebanon. The policy on Syria also produced tangible results.

After Georgia: Turkey's Looming Foreign Policy Dilemmas
Written by Ian Lesser
August 26, 2008
By all indications, the crisis in Georgia is unlikely to end anytime soon. Even if Russian forces withdraw to negotiated positions, there is every prospect for a sustained Russian political and security presence in the country. Under these conditions, Ankara will once again face Russian power directly on its borders. In the near-term, Turkey will face difficult policy choices in reconciling the country's Russian and Western interests. Even more difficult dilemmas are on the horizon as a more competitive relationship with Russia looms, and NATO is compelled to rethink its own strategy and posture. How should Turkey's foeign policy be shaped?

Crisis in the South Caucasus: Turkey's Big Moment
Written by Amerin Zaman
August 25, 2008
As the only NATO member to border the Caucasus. Turkey control the Bosporus and Dardanelles, through which Russia and other Black Sea countries conduct most of their trade. The conflict between Georgia and Russia offers Turkey a unique opportunity to bolster its regional clout, to check Russian and Iranian influence, and to help secure the flow of Western-bound oil and natural gas from former Soviet Central Asia and Azerbaijan. Will Turkey's leaders rise to the occasion?

Media inquiries in the U.S. can be made to Kristina Field in Washington at kfield@gmfus.org or +1 202 683 2621. In Europe, contact Elizabeth Boswell Rega in Brussels at eboswellrega@gmfus.org or +32 473 280 950.