In the wake of Turkey's recent Constitutional Court decision over the country's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), GMF launched On Turkey.  An ongoing series of analysis briefs about Turkey's current political situation and its future. GMF provides regular analysis briefs by leading Turkish, European, and American writers and intellectuals, with a focus on dispatches from on-the-ground Turkish observers.  Writers include:

• Soli Ozel, a professor at Istanbul Bilgi University and a columnist for the national daily Sabah
• Amberin Zaman, Turkey correspondent for The Economist
• Diba Nigar Göksel, Senior Analyst and Caucasus Coordinator of European Stability Initiative, and Editor-in-Chief of Turkish Policy Quarterly
  
• Ian Lesser, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow and a longtime Turkey follower at the State Department, RAND, and the Woodrow Wilson Center

In addition, periodic contributions from GMF scholars will put developments in Turkey into a transatlantic and international context.

Policy and Opinion Briefs

Turkish-Armenian Reconciliation: Lots of Gloom but Not All Doom
Written by Amberin Zaman
March 16, 2010
This month's vote by the Committee on Foreign Affairs in the U.S. House of Representatives condemning the mass slaughter of Ottoman Armenians during WWI as "genocide" is being cast as the final blow to Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. The bill might have been quashed had the parliament in Turkey ratified a set of protocols that would have established diplomatic ties and re-opened the border between Turkey and Armenia.

Turkey-Israel Relations: Where to Next?
Written by Soli Ozel
March 3, 2010
Don't jump to simple conclusions about Turkish-Israeli relations. The periodic crises between Turkey and Israel are more a function of structural causes and the changing strategic environment in the region than the proclivities of the principal actors.

Can Turkey Live with a Nuclear Iran?
Written by Ian Lesser
March 2, 2010
Could the emergence of a nuclear Iran be accommodated comfortably in the Turkish security scene? Or would it spell a fundamental and negative transformation of the strategic environment? The answer to this question should inform the Turkish calculus as the international community grapples with the challenge of a near-nuclear Iran.

Turkey's Kurdish Opening: Shifting Into Reverse Gear?
Written by Amberin Zaman
February 19, 2010
Nearly a year after Turkish President Abdullah Gül declared that "good things are going to happen concerning the Kurdish issue," the government's attempts to solve what remains the country's knottiest problem appear to have fizzled out. Both sides are blaming the other for this worsening state of affairs.

Turkey and the EU: Looking Back on 2009
Written by Diba Nigar Göksel
January 26, 2010
Since 1999, Turkey has been a candidate for membership in the European Union. Early on, the process of accession united divergent political and social camps and triggered a virtual cycle of change. For the past few years, however, both the pace of reforms to meet the EU's political criteria and the enthusiasm for membership have declined.

Kurdish Opening: Onto the Second Round
Written by Soli Ozel
December 23, 2009
Turkey had two options: Wage war and send the military across the border to northern Iraq, where the PKK made the Kandil mountain range their headquarters, or engage politically with Iraqi Kurds and seek serious reform at home.

Decoding the Erdogan Visit
Written by Ian Lesser
December 15, 2009
In early December, Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan made an official visit to Washington to meet with President Obama. Both sides are likely to have come away convinced that some potentially difficult issues have been managed. Yet, the visit did little to bridge substantial differences in perception and approach on key issues, above all, Iran, the Palestinian issue, and the complex of disputes in the Caucasus. Policymakers and observers on both sides are left with a list of unresolved open questions that could shape the course of the new model partnership in the near to medium term.

Turkey's Kurdish Gambit: The Road to Peace
Written by Amberin Zaman
November 13, 2009
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has launched a bold campaign to end the country's long-running Kurdish problem.

The New Turkish Lexicon
Written by Ian Lesser
November 3, 2009
Overtures toward Tehran, Damascus, Baghdad, the Kurdish regional government, and Turkey's own Kurds have contributed to the perception of a "Turkish moment," in which new ground is being broken on virtually a daily basis. Turkey's leadership seems unconcerned by the potential risks of dilution and overstretch, and so far, there has been little to check Ankara's momentum.

A Brave New World for Turkey and Armenia?
Written by Diba Nigar Göksel
October 2, 2009
Public discussions of the initialed protocols between Turkey and Armenia that were released on the night of August 31 are ongoing in both countries. The protocols can be welcomed as the basis for a more informed discussion. However, aspects of the protocols which have intentionally been left open to interpretation raise suspicions on both sides.

The New Look of Missile Defense: Thinking Through Turkish Stakes
Written by Ian Lesser
September 28, 2009
The Obama administration's decision to reconfigure its missile defense plans in Europe will have significant implications for Turkey and its alliance relationships. The new architecture will align more closely with near-term risks from Iran and elsewhere, and will offer improved defenses and strategic reassurance to NATO's southern allies, above all, Turkey.

Turkey and Armenia: Soccer Diplomacy Shifting Rules are Creating a Zero-Sum Game
Written by Amberin Zaman
August 31, 2009
A year ago, a World Cup qualifying match between Turkey and Armenia signaled a thaw in relations between the traditionally hostile neighbors. Such a normalizing in relations would also arm Washington and the new administration against long-running attempts by the Armenian-American diaspora to push through a Congressional resolution that would label the 1915 mass slaughter of Ottoman Armenians as genocide. At a time when Turkish support in Afghanistan and Iraq are critical, adoption of such a piece of legislation would most certainly trigger a crisis in Turkish-American relations.

Women in Turkey-What is on Paper, What is in Practice?
Written by Diba Nigar Göksel
August 31, 2009
The World Gender Gap Index of 2008 ranked Turkey 123rd of 130 countries. Turkey's action-or inaction-regarding female participation in local politics is crucial to improving the place of women in Turkish society, and the place of Turkey in the world. Mechanisms must be implemented to bring about concrete changes for the role of women in public life. Establishing gender quotas is one approach to increasing female participation in Turkish politics. It is necessary to shift from the notion of "equality of opportunity" to "equality of result" based on the realization that even when formal barriers are removed, deep-rooted societal barriers to women's political participation need to be temporarily compensated for.

Rhetoric and Reality: Turkish Politics Inside and Out
Written by Diba Nigar Göksel
July 30, 2009
The debate about Turkey's foreign policy in Washington centers around whether Turkey is anchored to the West as it strengthens its regional ties or whether Turkey is intent on creating a second bloc, a "Muslim pole," for a new and just world order.

Change Management: Deciding who is in Charge in Turkey
Written by Soli Ozel
July 15, 2009
Turkey recently passed an important threshold in the great power shift from the military to civilian authorities that started at the beginning of the decade. Whether this deepening civilianization will lead, as expected, to a rule based democratic consolidation and finally finish the "second transition" from democratic government to democratic regime remains to be seen.

Receding Power of Turkey's Military: A Leap for Democracy or Another Power Struggle?
Written by Amberin Zaman
July 15, 2009
The Turkish military, which has long been seen as the sole defender of the pro-secular Turkish elite lifestyle, has been losing power since the Islam-friendly Justice and Development Party (AKP) shot to single rule in 2002. Under a series of reforms aimed at winning European Union membership, the AKP has sought to trim the generals' powers.

360 Degrees Diplomacy
Written by Mitat Çelikpala
June 19, 2009
This piece analyses how the implications of the process that started with the "Five Days War" between Russia and Georgia led Turkey to develop an opening toward Armenia which would take Turkey to it's initial position after a 360 degrees turn.

Russia, Europe, Iran: Three Grand Strategic Issues in U.S.-Turkish Relations
Written by Ian Lesser
June 19, 2009
Three "meta" issues-Russia, Europe, and Iran-will pose key tests for U.S.-Turkish cooperation over the next few years.

Turkey and Azerbaijan: Passion, Principle, or Pragmatism?
Written by Diba Nigar Göksel
June 4, 2009
Efforts toward normalization between Turkey and Armenia in April 2009 have brought to light ongoing tensions in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Though united by language and ethnicity, the potential for the realization of "one nation, two states" has brought forth resentments between the two countries. This brief addresses factors that contribute to questions including: What substantiates the Turkey-Azerbaijan relationship? And what is the rationale of this bond?

Turkey's Kurds: Toward a Solution?
Written by Amberin Zaman
June 4, 2009
The campaign for an independent Kurdish state by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has been termed Turkey's number one headache. While the PKK's attacks against the Turkish army have bolstered Turkish nationalism, Turkey's image has been tainted by its response to these assaults. In addition, Turkey's failure to resolve the issue with the Kurds has hindered the development of its democracy.

Divining Davutoglu: Turkey's Foreign Policy Under New Leadership
Written by Soli Ozel
June 4, 2009
This brief discusses a method for looking at Turkey's policies and how the country's goals may line up with those of its allies, including the United States.

Turkey and Armenia: Adjusting Expectations
Written by Diba Nigar Göksel
May 18, 2009
In the months leading up to April 2009, Turkey's concern that the events of 1915 would be termed "genocide" dominated speculation as to when and how Turkey would normalize relations with Armenia. Turkey had linked these two prospects by making it clear that a U.S. genocide recognition would not only derail the process with Armenia but also threaten cooperation with the United States on various fronts.

GMF Fellow Lesser testifies on U.S.-Turkish relations before House committee
Written by Ian Lesser
May 14, 2009
GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Dr. Ian O. Lesser testified on May 14 before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs. He outlined the new dynamics and next steps in U.S.-Turkish relations. Lesser's testimony is available for download.

Turkey's Cabinet Reshuffle: Another Balancing Act
Written by Amberin Zaman
May 11, 2009
On May 1, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his new cabinet ushering in nine new ministers and letting go of eight others. This dramatic reshuffle reflects Erdogan's hallmark strategy of balancing different and often competing constituents within his party.

Turkey and Armenia
Written by Amberin Zaman
April 17, 2009
After months of tortuous diplomacy, Turkey and Armenia have put the final touches to a deal that would establish diplomatic ties and re-open their borders. The agreement is poised to end decades of mutual hostility, to blunt Russian influence, and to help foster economic prosperity and democracy in the Southern Caucasus. It has been forged against a backdrop of mushrooming civil society initiatives aimed at overcoming decades of prejudice and deepening friendship between Turks and Armenians of all stripes. But stiff opposition from Azerbaijan, which is mobilizing Turkish public opinion against this move, could yet weaken Turkey's resolve and wreck an historic opportunity for peace in the region.

The Obama Visit and After: Changing Style and Substance in U.S.-Turkish Relations
Written by Ian Lesser
April 14, 2009
The visit of U.S. president, Barack Obama, to Turkey so early in his administration is significant. Just as significant is the fact that the visit came as part of high-profile European tour. Key topics on the bilateral agenda may have been Middle Eastern or Eurasian, but the policy dialogue in Ankara and Istanbul was a dialogue with a transatlantic partner.

The Electorate's Tune-up
Written by Soli Ozel
March 31, 2009
Elections are always a serious business in Turkey and the local elections that just took place were no exception. The electorate gave a stern warning to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and notably Prime Minister Erdogan, who ran an energetic but harsh, angry, and polarizing campaign. In light of the election results, the question before Turkey is what course the AKP will take, or to be more precise, how the Prime Minister will interpret the results and how he will respond.

Turkey and Obama: A Golden Age in Turkish U.S. Ties?
Written by Amberin Zaman
March 20, 2009
Despite the dramatic walkout by Turkey's prime minister from the World Economic Forum at Davos, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently made the announcement that President Barack Obama will visit the country next month. As Turkey's international profile rises as it embraces its role as a regional peacemaker, are Turkish-American relations entering a "golden era"?

Beyond Davos
Written by Soli Ozel
February 17, 2009
Despite the theatrics and the surge of anti-Israeli and anti-Semitic sentiment in Turkey, the government's positions suggest that Turkey still sees a role for itself in Middle East peacemaking, wants Israel to be more concerned about regional instability, and wishes to work with the United States if and when the new administration reengages with the region.

Turkey after Davos: Risks, Opportunities, and an Unpredictable Prime Minister
Written by Amberin Zaman
February 13, 2009
The dramatic walkout by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey's prime minister, from the World Economic Forum at Davos during a debate with the Israeli president has raised questions about Turkey's relations with the West and its role in the Middle East. Was his outburst simply rhetoric, or does it signify Turkey's shift away from the West?

Do We Understand Turkey?
Written by Ian Lesser
February 4, 2009
In mid January, I visited Turkey at the height of the Gaza crisis, with Turks captivated by the ongoing Ergenekon investigation, and on the eve of Barack Obama's inauguration. My discussions revealed deepening concerns, not just about the obvious effects of the global economic crisis, but also about the basic trajectory of Turkish society, governance, and foreign policy.

After Gaza: Rising anti-Semitism in Turkey?
Written by Amberin Zaman
January 29, 2009
Is Turkey's unusually harsh response, both official and public, to Israel's assault against Hamas in Gaza merely a reaction to Israel's policies? Or does it mirror latent anti-Semitism in Turkish society? These questions are increasingly being raised, especially among Jewish-American groups who are among Turkey's firmest friends in Washington.

The Back and Forth of Turkey's "Westernness"
Written by Soli Ozel
January 29, 2009
Whether or not Turkey is turning its back on the West is a frequently asked question and a common refrain, particularly after Turkey's reaction to Israel's assault against Hamas in Gaza. Turkey remains strategically Western-oriented and in fact the ongoing Ergenekon investigation reaffirms its Atlanticist credentials. What Turkey's Western allies must do is have a self-critical look at their record and then ask themselves whether the strategic "Westernness" of Turkey is enough.

Going in All Directions
Written by Soli Ozel
January 14, 2009
While simultaneously reacting to the conflict between Israel and Hamas and conducting another wave of arrests in the Ergenekon case, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey's prime minister, suddenly appointed Egemen Bağış as Turkey's chief EU negotiator. Time will tell if this indicates a rekindling of the EU accession process after nearly three years of lethargy and growing political and public disinterest.

Winning Kurdish Hearts and Minds: The Battle Shifts to the Airwaves
Written by Amberin Zaman
January 12, 2009
The launching of TRT-6, the first Kurdish language television channel on January 1, marked a historic turning point in Turkey's official stance toward the Kurds.

Two Roads Diverge in South Caucasus
December 5, 2008
Two roads diverge in the South Caucasus and the newly elected U.S. administration can take either one. On the one hand it can support steps for cooperation and can mark the very first example of the new world order by permanently ignoring the signals of domestic politics; or on the other hand it can prioritize domestic political pressures, thus contributing to fragility and instability in the region.

Don't legislate history
Written by Soli Ozel
December 5, 2008
In the Turkish-Armenian relationship, history is being used as a political weapon to settle scores. Turkey has shown great progress on the path toward reconciliation, but there are two more steps the Turkish government could take to warm the relationship once and for all.

Turkey and the Global Economic Crisis
Written by Ian Lesser
December 1, 2008
It is now apparent that the global economy is headed for a deep and prolonged crisis, with potentially dramatic consequences for emerging as well as developed markets. Turkey is in no sense decoupled from the effects of this global turmoil. Over the next few years, economic stress could have a dramatic effect on Turkey's internal and external scene, including regional security and the prospects for Turkish relations with the European Union and the United States.

Committed to Change, or Changing Commitments? Turkish-American Relations Under a New U.S. President
Written by Soli Ozel
November 17, 2008
Geopolitical realities seem to have once more elevated Turkey's importance in American foreign policy decisions. In the past, Turkey's strategic importance and America's reliance on it had an inverse relationship to the deepening of Turkish democracy.

Today, the stability of Turkey necessitates that the country maintain its democratic orientation and that all its political actors commit themselves to this goal. One of the major tests of the Obama administration in its relations with Turkey may very well be whether it will treat Turkish democracy as a fundamental good or an expendable one.

Turkey and the United States under Barack Obama: Yes They Can
Written by Amberin Zaman
November 13, 2008
As the world celebrates the recent election of Barack Obama, politicians in Ankara ponder what this will mean for their country. Obama's foreign policy vision suggests that Turkish fears are overblown, and that there exists a window of opportunity for reinforcing a strategic partnership with the United States in ways that can positively impact the region, if leaders on both sides show some imagination and avoid pitfalls that line the way.

As Turkey and Armenia inch toward reconciliation both sides talk the talk, but can they walk the walk?
Written by Amberin Zaman
October 2, 2008
When Turkey's President Abdullah Gül took the plunge on September 6 and became the first ever Turkish leader to set foot in Armenia, few were immune to the significance of the moment. Even Turkey's determinedly frosty diplomats began to thaw as they observed their president sitting next to his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan at the World Cup pre-qualifier football match pitting Turkey against Armenia.

The groundbreaking trip has raised expectations that after decades of mutual hostility Turkey and Armenia will bury the hatchet, establish formal ties, and re-open their borders. Hopes of a breakthrough have been heightened by the conflict in Georgia, which has refocused regional minds on the need for peace. Yet, amid all the euphoria there are worrying signs that this latest and most serious stab at reconciliation between Turkey and Armenia may come to naught.