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On Defense, France Bites the Bullet, But Avoids Strategic Insolvency May 7, 2013
Iceland’s Recovery Saga Presents Opportunities for Brussels, Washington—and Beijing May 6, 2013
Which Way Forward for Europe’s Hybrid Regimes? May 2, 2013
The Arab Revolts and the Liberal Order May 2, 2013
Events
GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
Publications Archive
Kurdish Peace Process Remains on TrackMay 10, 2013 / Amberin Zaman
This policy brief offers possible explanations for the current peace talks between the Turkish government and PKK.
The Democratic Disconnect: Citizenship and Accountability in the Transatlantic CommunityMay 02, 2013 / Seyla Benhabib, David Cameron, Anna Dolidze, Gábor Halmai, Gunther Hellmann, Kateryna Pishchikova
This policy paper examines the future of democracy, taking examples from across North America and Europe.
The Future of Mediterranean Europe: Between the Euro Crisis and Arab RevolutionApril 16, 2013 / Emiliano Alessandri
This policy paper looks at a Southern Europe that is increasingly disillusioned with and more openly critical of both their national governments and the EU.
Turkey’s Second Kurdish Opening: Light at the End of the Tunnel or Another Failed Attempt?April 12, 2013 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief speculates on the motives and outcomes of possible negotiations between the Turkish government and the Kurdistan Workers' Party.
Les républicains et la politique étrangère américaine : Quelles perspectives pour 2016 ?April 04, 2013 / Laurence Nardon
This policy brief (in French) examines what potential 2016 Republican candidates need to pay attention to in foreign policy.
Turkey’s Negotiations with the PKK: Contents, Dynamics, Risks, and Possible OutcomesMarch 28, 2013 / Gökhan Bacik
This policy brief examines the reasons why the Turkish government is negotiating with the PKK.
Gay Rights: Where is Turkey Heading?March 28, 2013 / Diba Nigar Göksel
This policy brief looks at the legal status of LGBT citizens in Turkey.
Schism within the GCC or “the Same Old Tribal Politics”?March 28, 2013 / Elena Maestri
This policy brief looks at differing reactions to the Arab Spring from within the Arab world.
How China Will Change the Global Political MapMarch 25, 2013 / Martin Jacques
This policy brief looks at the influence that China is likely to have on democracy around the world.
Brussels Forum ViewsMarch 19, 2013 / Martin Jacques
This collection from the 2013 Brussels Forum examines the theme “The Fragility of the Global System.”
Justice or Injustice in Georgia? The First 100 Days after the Power TransferMarch 06, 2013 / Anna Dolidze
This policy brief assesses the efforts of the new Georgian government to reform the law and justice system in that country.
Untangling Conflicts in the South Caucasus and Moldova: An Agenda for 2013March 06, 2013 / Stanislav Secrieru
This policy brief examines relations in Transnistria, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Black Sea Region: Missing Pieces of the Civil Society PuzzleMarch 06, 2013 / Orysia Lutsevych
This policy brief looks at the role of NGOs in democracy in the Black Sea region.
Safeguarding Democracy inside the EU: Brussels and the Future of Liberal OrderFebruary 20, 2013 / Jan-Werner Müller
This policy paper argues that the EU lacks a way to intervene in member states where democracy is weak.
The West and the Emerging “Gray Democracy” in EgyptFebruary 04, 2013 / Roberto Aliboni
This policy brief recommends that Western governments maintain pressure on Egypt for greater democracy.
Turkey’s Development Assistance Policy: How to Make Sense of the New Guy on the BlockFebruary 04, 2013 / Saban Kardas
This policy brief examines Turkey's new role in international development and foreign assistance.
Turkish History Revisited: Uniting or Polarizing?January 30, 2013 / Diba Nigar Göksel
This policy brief looks at the way Turkey's ruling party is invoking history.
The Future of the Western Liberal Order: The Case of ItalyJanuary 08, 2013 / Gianfranco Pasquino, James L. Newell, Paolo Mancini
This policy paper explores the political legacy of Silvio Berlusconi.
2012 Goes, Problems Remain!January 07, 2013 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief assesses the current state of democracy in Turkey.
The GCC in the Mediterranean in Light of the Arab SpringDecember 21, 2012 / Silvia Colombo, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Shafeeq Ghabra, Shadi Hamid, Eman Ragab
This policy paper examines how countries in the Gulf region are responding to the Arab Spring.
A Transatlantic Perspective on the European Union and the United States in North AfricaDecember 20, 2012 / Roberto Aliboni
This policy paper looks at the U.S. and EU reactions to the democratic transitions in North Africa.
Southern Europe in Trouble: Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges of the Financial CrisisDecember 14, 2012 / Theodore Couloumbis, Andrea Dessì, Thanos Dokos, Paulo Gorjão, Ettore Greco, Dimitris Katsikas
This policy paper focuses on four financially volatile countries: Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal.
Democracy as Self-CorrectionDecember 10, 2012 / Ivan Krastev
This policy paper outlines the current state of the concept of democracy around the world.
Palestine and the UN, from Challenge to OpportunityDecember 10, 2012 / Andrea Dessì, Daniela Huber
This policy brief outlines the current prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestinians.
A New Chance for Ukraine?December 03, 2012 / Valeryi Chalyi, Oleh Shamshur
This policy brief argues that Ukraine's October parliamentary elections have created an opportunity for the country.
Global Swing States and the Human Rights and Democracy OrderNovember 27, 2012 / Ted Piccone
This policy paper looks at the way Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey choose to support the international mechanisms to strengthen human rights.
The “Bearded Elites” and the Sad State of Egyptian State InstitutionsNovember 21, 2012 / Silvia Colombo
This policy brief takes a look beyond Egypt's leadership to the ministries where the work of government is done, or not.
Turkey’s Diminutive DemocracyNovember 19, 2012 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief argues that argues that Turkey's democracy is at risk.
Shifting Sands: Security and Development for Egypt’s SinaiNovember 16, 2012 / Andrea Dessì
This policy brief examines the most unstable area in an unstable country in an unstable region.
Turkey’s Transformation and Its Future Influence: A Critical LinkOctober 18, 2012 / Emiliano Alessandri, Nora Fisher Onar
This policy brief looks at how Turkey is responding to domestic and international pressures.
Erdoğan’s Way: Turkish Politics in the Wake of the AKP CongressOctober 10, 2012 / Saban Kardas
This policy brief examines future directions for Turkey's ruling AK Party.
Cyprus – a Future Energy Hub?October 10, 2012 / Toula Onoufriou
This policy brief describes the choices upcoming for Cyprus following the discovery of natural gas in its waters.
The Rise and Fall of Turkey’s Middle East PolicyOctober 09, 2012 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief outlines the recent history of Turkey's role in the Middle East.
Book Chapter: Europe in Indian StrategySeptember 27, 2012 / Dhruva Jaishankar
Ties between Europe and India remain weak for a variety of economic, politico-military, and socio-cultural reasons.
Can the EU Bicycle Turn into a Jet Plane by 2020?September 25, 2012 / Vivien A. Schmidt
This policy brief proposes two scenarios for the EU, based on the assumption that the eurozone will move towards closer economic and political integration.
Tashkent Maneuvers between Moscow, Washington, and BeyondSeptember 11, 2012 / Richard Weitz
This policy brief looks at Uzbekistan's shifting foreign policy.
Turkey’s Syrian Gamble: Enter the KurdsAugust 24, 2012 / Amberin Zaman
This policy brief examines the Kurdish response to Turkey's support for Syrian rebels.
The Tension at Russia’s Center: Radical Islam in TatarstanAugust 16, 2012 / Nadir Devlet
This policy brief looks at new religious extremism in Russia's Volga Ural region.
Turkey’s Syria Policy and the Kurds: Resisting TemptationAugust 13, 2012 / Saban Kardas
This policy brief looks at pressures within Turkey regarding the Syrian uprising.
Funding Arab Reform?August 09, 2012 / Richard Youngs
This policy brief looks at the EU's efforts to encourage democratic reform in the Arab Spring countries.
Rights, Wrongs, and Freedoms in TurkeyAugust 06, 2012 / Diba Nigar Göksel
This policy brief examines tensions in Turkey between social conservatives and liberals.
Quest for Civilian Constitution in Turkey and Political Aspects of Constitution-MakingAugust 06, 2012 / Hasan Selim Ozertem, Mehmet Yegin
This brief examines the issue of constitution writing and its political effects in Turkey and discusses the chances of change in political culture.
New Socio-Political Actors: The Brotherhood and Business in EgyptJuly 18, 2012 / Jane Kinninmont
This policy brief looks at the economic policy plans of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.
The Muslim Brotherhood and the Illusion of PowerJuly 18, 2012 / Daniela Pioppi
This policy brief examines the relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood and Egypt's military.
Democracy Building since the Arab Spring: In Need of “Diversification”July 17, 2012 / Daniela Huber
This policy brief advocates for diverse EU responses to the Arab Spring.
The Mediterranean’s 3 Cs and Implications for the WestJuly 12, 2012 / Pol Morillas
This policy brief illustrates the degree of democratization in the countries of the Arab Spring.
A Post-Revolutionary Egyptian Foreign Policy?… Not YetJuly 10, 2012 / Philippe Droz-Vincent
This policy brief explains that changes to Egypt's foreign policy will happen slowly.
Egypt’s Transition Towards a New Governance for Sustainable DevelopmentJuly 05, 2012 / Wafik Grais
This policy brief examines Egypt's leadership challenges.
Ideational and Material Power in the Mediterranean: The Role of Turkey and the Gulf Cooperation CouncilJune 15, 2012 / Nathalie Tocci, Elena Maestri, Soli Özel, Serhat Güvenç
This policy paper explores how neighboring countries are affecting the nations of the Arab
Spring.
This paper sketches out three ten-year scenarios for European strategic reactions to current events.
Global Food Insecurity and “Political Malnutrition”June 13, 2012 / Frederick S. Tipson
This policy brief examines the governance changes necessary to increase food security.
The Political Economy of Youth Exclusion in the Mediterranean: Continuity or Change?June 08, 2012 / Maria Cristina Paciello
This policy brief examines the current role of youth in the economies of Tunisia and Egypt.
A Transatlantic Perspective on the Future of LibyaMay 29, 2012 / Ronald Bruce St John
This policy paper looks at energy supply, illegal migration, investment and trade, and security issues between Libya and Europe.
One Year On: A Balance Sheet of the EU’s Response to the Arab SpringMay 24, 2012 / Nathalie Tocci
This policy brief criticizes the EU's reaction to uprisings in the Arab world.
Reversing the Vicious Circle in North Africa’s Political Economy: Confronting Rural, Urban, and Youth-Related ChallengesMay 09, 2012 / Maria Cristina Paciello, Habib Ayeb, Gaëlle Gillot, Jean-Yves Moisseron
This report provides an analysis of the policy failures behind the process of marginalization and exclusion that was at the origin of the Arab Spring.
Religious Education in Public Schools: Going Parochial or Democratic?April 13, 2012 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief examines the debate over the place of religion in Turkish public schools.
Staying Above the Middle Eastern Fray: Turkey’s Sectarian TemptationsMarch 30, 2012 / Joshua W. Walker
This policy brief asks if Turkey will be able to avoid the sectarianism taking place in neighboring Middle Eastern countries.
North Caucasus Turmoil Intensifies on Europe’s DoorstepMarch 29, 2012 / Aslan Doukaev
This policy brief argues for paying more attention to conflict in the North Caucasus region.
The Arab Spring: A Victory for Islamism?March 19, 2012 / Hassan Mneimneh
This Brussels Forum paper examines the impact of the Arab Spring on Islamism.
From Transition to Transformation: Europe’s Afghanistan Decade?March 19, 2012 / Javid Ahmad, Louise Langeby
The Afghanistan war represents NATO’s greatest international test since the Cold War. However, without discrediting the efforts made by the ISAF mission’s EU member states, the EU has, in certain respects, punched below its weight in Afghanistan. European initiatives such as the EUPOL have proved inadequate. The EU must step up its efforts in Afghanistan to focus more on the country’s transformation into a stable and self-sufficient state by helping it develop its economy, improve its police force, ensure long-term security cooperation, and constructively engage the region, with a particular focus on Pakistan.
When Russian Eurasianism Meets Turkey’s EurasiaMarch 08, 2012 / Nadir Devlet
This policy brief compares Russian and Turkish views of "Eurasia."
The Shifting Tectonics of Japan One Year After March 11, 2011March 08, 2012 / Lully Miura, Joshua W. Walker
The danger for Japan is that after the one-year anniversary of 3/11 passes, complacency and depression will replace the resolve and national unity pledged in the immediate aftermath of the crisis. The political incentives to become further insulated and isolated run in the opposite direction of Japan’s national interest. Growth through closer ties with the developing world and greater competition at home offer the best future for Japan. Political leadership is necessary to pursue this path, but without it, Japan risks another decade of relative decline even without another tragedy.
Yanukovych’s Two Years in PowerMarch 02, 2012 / Mykola Riabchuk
This policy brief assesses the current Ukrainian government's performance and chances for reform.
Uneasy Coexistence: Religion and Politics in TurkeyFebruary 17, 2012 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief examines how the ruling AKP is using religion, or not, in matters of state.
New Socio-Political Actors in North Africa: A Transatlantic PerspectiveFebruary 14, 2012 / Silvia Colombo, Paola Caridi, Jane Kinninmont
This paper analyzes the features of each of the three socio-political actors in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, and Libya.
Waves, Ways and Historical Turns: Turkey’s Strategic QuestFebruary 01, 2012 / Soli Özel
This brief looks at the recent evolution of Turkey's foreign policy.
Turkey and Russia Growing Closer Despite Cool HistoryFebruary 01, 2012 / Hasan Ali Karasar
This brief explores the history of relations between Turkey and Russia, and prospects for the future.
Legislating History and its Effects on Foreign PolicyJanuary 05, 2012 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief examines friction between Turkey and France regarding events in 1915.
Mediterranean 2020: The Future of Mediterranean Security and PoliticsDecember 21, 2011 / Eduard Soler i Lecha, Thanos Dokos
The two papers included in this report focus on the nexus between the domestic transformations in many of the Middle Eastern and North African countries and the evolution of the strategic outlook of the region.
Taking Stock: Turkey and the Turkic World 20 Years LaterNovember 10, 2011 / Nadir Devlet
This policy brief examines Turkey's connections to and attempts to exert influence on the countries of Central Asia.
Turkey and the Arab Spring: Implications for Turkish Foreign Policy from a Transatlantic PerspectiveOctober 31, 2011 / Nathalie Tocci, Ömer Taşpınar, Henri J. Barkey
The five authors in this policy paper explain that rather than a black-and-white model of a pro-Western Muslim secular democracy, Turkey may offer a number of different models and ideas to inspire change in its southern neighborhood....
Turkey and the Arab Spring: Coming to Terms with Democracy Promotion?October 27, 2011 / Saban Kardas
This policy brief examines Turkey's apparently disjointed reaction to the Arab Spring....
Transformations in the Arab World: Elements for an AssessmentOctober 27, 2011 / Hassan Mneimneh
This brief outlines the broad similarities of the uprisings in the Arab world....
Europe’s Response to the Arab SpringOctober 27, 2011 / Michael Leigh
This policy brief recommends an approach for the EU response to the Arab Spring....
Turkey’s Third Wave — And the Coming Quest for Strategic ReassuranceOctober 25, 2011 / Ian Lesser
This policy brief examines Turkey's changing foreign policy strategy....
Turkish-U.S. Relations: Beautiful Life but Ugly PolicyOctober 07, 2011 / Ersin Kalaycıoğlu
This policy brief explains why Turkish public opinion has turned against the United States in recent years.
Can Turkey Inspire? Part II — Turkish Civil Society: From Black Sheep to Synergy in the Black SeaSeptember 27, 2011 / Diba Nigar Göksel
This policy brief encourages Turkish NGOs to become more involved in the greater Black Sea region....
The Middle East and Turkish Public OpinionSeptember 27, 2011 / Ersin Kalaycıoğlu
This policy brief offers possible reasons why the Turkish public is increasingly sympathetic to its Arab neighbors....
Turkey’s Views of the European Union in 2011September 21, 2011 / Ersin Kalaycıoğlu
This policy brief analyzes the Turkish results from the 2011 Transatlantic Trendssurvey....
Adventures in Causal Analysis: The Whys of Turkey’s Deteriorating Relations with IsraelSeptember 14, 2011 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief argues that Turkish-Israeli relations are deteriorating to a level from which it may be difficult to improve them in the foreseeable future....
Can Turkey Inspire? Part I: Civil Society in the MENA NeighborhoodSeptember 14, 2011 / Diba Nigar Göksel
This policy brief encourages Turkish NGOs to be more active in the Mediterranean neighborhood....
Transatlantic Trends 2011September 14, 2011 / Zsolt Nyiri, Ben Veater-Fuchs
The 2011 edition of Transatlantic Trends paints a picture of a complex relationship between the United States and Europe and how they respond to global challenges....
Turkish Foreign Relations and Public OpinionSeptember 08, 2011 / Ersin Kalaycıoğlu
This policy brief looks at how Turkish politicians have turned distant international issues into domestic issues that voters care about....
Creating A New Turkish Constitution: An Opportunity For Arab Spring?August 10, 2011 / Eray Akdag
This policy brief outlines some of the ingredients that should be included in a new constitution.The Interlinking of Turkey’s Domestic and Foreign Policy in the AKP’s Third TermAugust 10, 2011 / Joshua W. Walker
This policy brief argues that Turkey now must prove it is able to transcend its long tradition of "democracy without democrats" both internally and externally.
Exit the CommandersAugust 10, 2011 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief explains that the Turkish constitution-making process will provide an opportunity to see if the government party will lead an effort to establish a system characterized by extensive civil liberties for the citizens and a system of government characterized by checks and balances....
Military Resignations: Crisis or New Beginning?August 03, 2011 / Soli Özel
This policy brief examines shifts in Turkey's military leadership....
The Roles China Ought to Play in the WorldAugust 01, 2011 / Shi Yinhong
What roles should a rising China play in the world? They should include being, at the very least: 1) a provider of transnational values concerning economic growth, liberty, social justice, and environmental protection; 2) a strategic great power with the capacity to redefine the China-U.S. relationship; 3) a bearer of international responsibility in various functional areas, requiring a substantial contribution to the global political economy, security, and the environment; and 4) a courageous but prudent restrainer of the preponderant power, for the sake of world liberty and justice.
Modernization: The Forgotten Strategy of Social TransformationAugust 01, 2011 / Ognyan Minchev
This policy brief explores the similarities between the collapse of the Soviet bloc and the Arab Spring....
Competitive and Democratic Depth: Keys for Success in Turkish Football and PoliticsJuly 22, 2011 / Joshua W. Walker
This policy brief draws parallels between the current Turkish football match-fixing scandal and Turkish politics....
The Two UkrainesJuly 20, 2011 / Rajan Menon
This policy brief compares Ukraine's relations with the EU and Russia.
New Turkish Government and Foreign PolicyJuly 15, 2011 / Ersin Kalaycıoğlu
This policy brief looks at possible changes, or not, in Turkey's foreign policy following June's elections.
Much Ado about Nothing or a Step Toward Democratization: The Oath Crisis in the Turkish ParliamentJuly 15, 2011 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief examines the implications of an opposition “oath boycott” in Turkey.
Democracy, Islam, and the AKPJuly 01, 2011 / Soli Ozel
This policy brief argues that secularization and Islamization go hand in hand in Turkey, and the AKP is a product of this paradox.
Understanding Thailand’s Ongoing Political Crisis: Wider Implications for Southeast Asia and the WestJuly 01, 2011 / Edmund Malesky
What is at stake in Thailand is more than just a narrative of class conflict. We are seeing a fundamental debate over the very essence of democracy itself, drawing on debates that have consumed political theorists for centuries. Calls for immediate elections to restore the legitimacy of the regime, while an enticing tonic, miss this vital point. The situation in Thailand cannot be repaired until all actors are able to agree on a system of government that balances popular will with adequate safeguards for minority interests.
Addressing Pakistan’s Sovereignty DeficitJune 27, 2011 / C. Christine Fair
The Pakistan government’s inability to provide for the security and prosperity of its own people has led to questions about its sovereignty, whether in terms of its monopoly of violence, fiscal solvency, or human security. But rather than asking questions of the Pakistani government, Pakistanis are content with blaming Washington for the country’s ills. Pakistan can certainly do better by following India’s example of self-sufficient economic growth. Pakistan can only escape the leash of donors and manipulative outsiders by raising revenue, securing its territory, providing for its citizens, and becoming a responsible international actor.
Critical Elections Behind, Critical Problems AheadJune 16, 2011 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief explains the importance of Turkey's June 12 parliamentary elections.
Turkish Elections of June 12, 2011: Now What?June 16, 2011 / Ersin Kalaycıoğlu
This policy brief outlines possible next steps for the newly elected Turkish parliament.
Dangerous Curves Ahead: Adjusting Turkish Foreign Policy to New Realities in the Arab Middle EastJune 08, 2011 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief examines Turkey's evolving reaction to events in the Middle East.
Turkey and the West Address the Arab SpringJune 08, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri
This brief summarizes discussions at the “EU, Turkish, and U.S. Responses to the Arab Spring: Exploring Synergies in a Transatlantic Context” conference in May 2011.
Transition to What: Egypt’s Uncertain Departure from Neo-AuthoritarianismMay 31, 2011 / Daniela Pioppi, Maria Cristina Paciello, Issandr El Amrani, Philippe Droz-Vincent
This policy paper provides an analysis of Egypt’s current status by focusing more on structural and long-term dynamics than on everyday politics.
Looking Beyond the June 12 ElectionsMay 26, 2011 / Ersin Kalaycıoğlu
This policy brief asks if Turkey's upcoming elections signal a continuation of stable parliamentary politics.
The Going Gets Tough: Turkey Tries to Meet the Syrian ChallengeMay 16, 2011 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief outlines the implications of Syrian unrest on neighboring Turkey.
The Politics of India’s Unfinished Economic ReformsMay 13, 2011 / Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar
Despite at least two decades of reforms, the liberalization of India’s economy is incomplete. This is primarily a function of politics. Indian political leaders have few incentives to advance the reform agenda given India’s high growth rate, and instead prefer handouts in the form of welfare schemes and employment guarantees. While some advances are being made, future economic liberalization in India will likely be hesitant, episodic, and half-hearted.
What Moroccan Model? Moroccan Reform and New Regional PerspectivesMay 13, 2011 / Oumhani Alaoui, Emiliano Alessandri
This policy brief explores the current role of Morocco in the Arab world.
Europe’s Neighborhood: Can Turkey Inspire?May 05, 2011 / Diba Nigar Göksel
This policy brief argues that synergy between Turkish and European counterparts is needed to increase Turkey’s contribution to positive change in region.
Building the New NormalMay 02, 2011 / Andrew A. Michta
Two decades after the end of the Cold War, Central Europe is believed to have entered a period which one prominent Washington politico privately called an era of “blessed boredom.” He was expressing the widely-held opinion that the region has successfully crossed the once-daunting threshold of political and economic reform and in fact, has completed the process of “returning to Europe.” Indeed, the countries that once threatened to devolve into a post-communist “grey zone of instability” have had a remarkably successful run.
The Turkish Media: At Long Last Turkey Becomes a World Leader!April 28, 2011 / Amberin Zaman
This policy brief examines sources of pressure on Turkey's media.
Turkish Elections: Voters at the Crossroads?April 28, 2011 / Ersin Kalaycıoğlu
This policy brief looks at political ideologies and party identification in Turkey.
The Prelude to an Election: Turkish Political Parties Name CandidatesApril 19, 2011 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief sheds light on the particulars of Turkey's upcoming elections in terms of the electoral system, candidate designation, and the criteria used by political parties to determine their candidates.
Unravelling the Truth: Freedom of Press in TurkeyApril 14, 2011 / Egemen BağışIn this opinion piece, the author argues that some recent developments have created a distorted image about freedom of press in Turkey.
Why Pakistan is Neither a Democracy Nor (Yet?) an AutocracyApril 07, 2011 / Christophe Jaffrelot
Pakistan’s political development since its independence — fluctuating between imperfect democracy and uncertain autocracy — can be attributed to several factors. Democracy suffered as a result of Pakistan’s colonial history, the process of Partition with India, and ethnic politics in the early years of the country’s independence. At the same time, truly autocratic forces have been held back by the resilience of Pakistan’s political parties, its civil society, and its judiciary. Yet there are reasons to be pessimistic about Pakistan’s future.
Europe and Turkey – Back to the Future?March 15, 2011 / Diba Nigar Göksel
This policy brief explains that further political reforms in Turkey will require the alignment of diverse stakeholders.
Weathering the Transatlantic Climate Policy RecessionMarch 02, 2011 / Nigel Purvis
This policy brief examines possible directions for meaningful action on climate change in a time of waning political will.
ASEAN’s Human Rights Agenda: Modest Beginning, Reasonable Prospects – and How the West Can HelpMarch 01, 2011 / Rizal Sukma
In 2003 the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN), for the first time, agreed to include a human rights agenda in its official area of cooperation. How did that change of attitude come about? Does such a change suggest a greater adoption of liberal values by ASEAN so that a closer convergence with its Western partners becomes more likely? What can ASEAN’s partners in the West do in order to assist the Association to implement its commitment to better promote and protect human rights?
Next Steps on Burma: Squaring Interests and Values in Developing Western Approaches to South-East Asia’s Most Troubled StateMarch 01, 2011 / Benedict Rogers
Some might argue that Burma is a country where interests and values collide: the short-term commercial and energy interests in oil, gas, and gems versus the promotion of democratic values. However it is, in fact, in the long-term interests of both the West and the region to ensure Burma becomes a peaceful, stable country with a responsible, legitimate government.
Beyond Enlargement? European Skepticism, Turkish Cynicism, and the Uncertain Future of EU-Turkey RelationsFebruary 24, 2011 / Emiliano Alessandri
This policy brief examines the current attitudes toward Turkey joining the EU, both from within Turkey and from the EU.
Turkey’s New Opposition Leader: Deciphering Kemal KilicdarogluFebruary 24, 2011 / Amberin Zaman
This policy brief profiles one of Turkey's main opposition party leaders.
Reversing Pakistan’s Drift Toward RadicalismFebruary 23, 2011 / Hasan Askari Rizvi
Radicalism has permeated the Pakistani society at large – including government institutions – and now represents the dominant worldview in the country. The social and educational changes advanced by the government of General Zia ul-Haq in the 1980s has severe implications for Pakistan’s domestic security and external relations today, and can only be reversed through a similar generational process involving educational reform and socio-economic development.
Friend – Partner – AllyFebruary 15, 2011 / Pavol Demeš
The objective of this publication is to point out the milestones of the Slovak-American relationship over the past 20 years and to remember the key diplomats who together with their staffs operated in Bratislava and Washington during this period.Background to Tragedy: The Decline of Turkish-Israeli RelationsJanuary 27, 2011 / Ilter Turan
This brief examines how the once relatively close relations between Turkey and Israel have crumbled in recent years and what that means for the region.
Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s Lurch towards Islam: An Electioneering Tactic or His True Face Revealed?January 27, 2011 / Amberin Zaman
This brief looks at the Turkish ruling party's apparent strategy to appeal to its conservative base.
Building an Ordinary Party by Extraordinary MeansDecember 21, 2010 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief examines the results and implications of the recently completed Republican People’s Party leadership convention in Turkey.
After WikiLeaks, U.S.-Turkish Relations in Need of Catharsis not RecriminationsDecember 15, 2010 / Joshua W. Walker
This policy brief examines the fallout of the Wikileaks release on U.S.-Turkey relations.
WikiLeaks: The Impact on Turkish-U.S. Relations and Turkey’s Domestic PoliticsDecember 15, 2010 / Amberin Zaman
This policy brief examines the domestic ramifications of the Wikileaks cable release in Turkey.
Zero Problems with Greece: Grounds for OptimismDecember 06, 2010 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief discusses the resumption of the quiet negotiation process between Greece and Turkey regarding Cyprus.
NATO Summit: Implications for Turkish Foreign PolicyDecember 06, 2010 / Soli Ozel
At the end of the Lisbon Summit, almost all of Ankara’s primary concerns were addressed, including not naming Iran or Syria as threats to obtain ballistic missile capability. As a result, Turkey went along with all the decisions taken collectively by the Alliance.
Turkey as a Regional Economic Actor: Successes and WeaknessesNovember 23, 2010 / Franco Zallio
In this latest of the Paralleli Brief series, the author outlines Turkey's economic ties in the eastern Mediterranean region.
The European Commission’s 2010 “Progress Report” and Real Progress in Turkey-EU RelationsNovember 16, 2010 / Emiliano Alessandri
Two issues may help to provide a better grasp of the problem of whether Turkey will eventually decide to go it alone in world affairs: the recent reform of the Turkish Constitution and the evolution of Turkish foreign policy.
Party Oligarchy: Why Turkish Political Parties Fail to Change Their LeadersNovember 10, 2010 / Ilter Turan
Electoral failure, which constitutes a major opportunity for parties to renew their leaders in other democratic systems, does not serve the same function in Turkish politics.
Beyond “The Arc of Freedom and Prosperity”: Debating Universal Values in Japanese Grand StrategyOctober 26, 2010 / Tomohiko Taniguchi
From 2006 to 2008, the leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan staked out an expansive vision for Japanese cooperation with fellow democracies in a geopolitical arc stretching from Southeast Asia to Central Europe. However, the ascent to power of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 2009 called into question the values-oriented approach that animated this concept – the “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” (AFP) – as an emerging component of Japanese grand strategy.
Reform in Libya: Chimera or Reality?October 22, 2010 / Alison Pargeter
This paper lays out the current reform debates being played out within Libya.
“Somebody Loves Me, I Wonder Who?”October 14, 2010 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief examines the recent findings on Turkey in the Transatlantic Trends survey, which suggest that the attitudes of Turks deviate significantly from those of citizens of the United States and European Union.
Turks and Armenians: Walking the Reconciliation TightropeOctober 13, 2010 / Diba Nigar Göksel
This policy brief explores the implications for Turkish/Armenian relations of the first religious service held in 95 years at the Armenian Church of the Holy Cross (Surb Khach) in eastern Turkey on September 19.
Can the AKP’s Kurdish Gamble Pay Off?September 30, 2010 / Amberin Zaman
Turkey’s ruling AKP faces difficult choices ahead of next year’s elections, either engaging the Kurds or bowing to nationalist pressure against pro-Kurdish groups.
The Law of the Sea and Mediterranean SecuritySeptember 30, 2010 / Natalino Ronzitti
This paper argues that a transatlantic policy on maritime security should be devised that not only involves the organizations in which European states and the United States already collaborate such as NATO, but also strengthens relations between the EU and NATO. However, a common regulatory framework seems to be impossible for the time being, while cooperation on single issues appears to be much more feasible.
Turkish Referendum: Divided We StandSeptember 17, 2010 / Ersin Kalaycıoğlu
The outcome of Turkey's September 12 referendum reflects deeply divided politics, with the conservative and highly religious voters on one side, and the more secular and modern voters on the other.
The campaign underway before the Turkish referendum on constitutional amendments has been intense. While the results of the referendum will have important implications for the powers of the presidency and the make up of the Constitutional Court, the struggle between the government and the opposition is not about defending or opposing the current constitution.
A Background to the Constitutional Referendum: Reinforcing the Politics of PolarizationAugust 30, 2010 / Ilter Turan
Turkey's Sept. 12 referendum on proposed constitutional amendments creates yet another occasion for reinforcing the deep cleavages in Turkish politics.
Racing Against Time: Reform in North Africa and Transatlantic StrategiesJuly 22, 2010 / J. Scott Carpenter
This paper explores recent economic and political developments in Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia and the mechanisms by which the transatlantic community has sought to channel social, political, and economic change in them — for both good and ill.
To Engage or Not to Engage: The Policy Dilemma of Dealing with BelarusJune 18, 2010 / Pavol Demeš, Sabine FischerHow to deal with Belarus, along with the question of whether to engage or seek to isolate the regime of Aleksandr Lukashenka has been a bone of contention in policy debates across the Atlantic. Sabine Fischer and Pavol Demes take different sides of the debate in this On Wider Europe series.
Party Changes Leader. Can Leader Change Party?June 14, 2010 / Ilter Turan
The Republican People's Party of Turkey, the major opposition, has had an unexpected change of leadership triggered by the appearance of compromising pictures of the party's leader Deniz Baykal on the internet. The resignation of Baykal has opened the way for the election of Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as its new leader. The party's rank and file hope that their new leader will turn around the electoral fortunes of the party, but success is not assured.
A 2020 Vision for the Black SeaMay 17, 2010 / Ilter Turan
The Commission on the Black Sea's final report provides a set of eight recommendations each of which contains the seeds of more detailed proposals and frameworks aimed at ensuring that the Black Sea region becomes one of peace, security, stability, sustainable development, innovation, and prosperity, hence a trustworthy, reliable and stable neighbour of Europe.
Turkey and the Iraqi Kurds: From Red Lines to Red CarpetsMay 14, 2010 / Amberin Zaman
Next month’s expected visit of Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, to Turkey is a first step ending hostility between Ankara and the Kurdish leadership and ending Turkey’s long-time Kurdish problem.
A Very Secular Affair: The Power Struggle of Turkey’s ElitesMay 14, 2010 / Michael Thumann
This paper describes the rise of the periphery elite and sheds light on the fears of the classical centrist elite. It depicts the structural deficits of the Turkish political system that obstruct a smooth transition from the dominance of the classical elite to political competition in a democracy and a fair distribution of power in the country.
The Clash of PerceptionsApril 04, 2010 / Zsolt NyiriThere is an important disconnect between the attitudes toward social integration that most Europeans attribute to Muslims living in their countries, and the actual attitudes expressed by European Muslims themselves. Public opinion data reveal that the opinions of Muslims living in London, Paris, and Berlin are generally similar to those of the broader British, French, and German publics on such issues as religious tolerance and willingness to coexist with those of different ethnicities or faiths.Checking the Opposition, Balancing the Judiciary: Constitutional Reform Debates in TurkeyMarch 31, 2010 / Ilter Turan
Turkey's government and opposition are embroiled in a deep conflict over proposed changes to the Turkish constitution. The two major opposition parties have made it clear that they will not be party to the efforts of the governing party to amend the constitution in unacceptable ways. The governing party will fight bitterly to the end to get what it wants. The Turkish voters will have to brace themselves for a no holds barred battle, which is likely to be followed by a tension-ridden referendum. Peace and tranquility will not be the words to characterize Turkish politics in the months to come.
Ukraine after the Presidential Elections: How the West Should RespondMarch 19, 2010 / Bruce P. Jackson, James Sherr
Is the election of Viktor Yanukovych as president of Ukraine an opportunity to correct Western and U.S. policy and free it of past illusions? Or is an event that should give the West pause and grounds for apprehension? Bruce Jackson and James Sherr take very different views on what this election means and how the West should respond.
On Turkey – Turkey’s Kurdish Opening: Shifting Into Reverse Gear?February 19, 2010 / Bruce P. Jackson, James Sherr
Nearly a year after Turkish President Abdullah Gül declared that “good things are going to happen concerning the Kurdish issue,” the government’s attempts to solve what remains the country’s knottiest problem appear to have fizzled out. Both sides are blaming the other for this worsening state of affairs.
Focus on Ukraine – Ukraine’s Post-Election “To-Do” ListFebruary 11, 2010 / Bruce P. Jackson, James Sherr
Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko has yet to concede defeat to Viktor Yanukovych, but Yanukovych looks likely to assume leadership of the country in the near future following the February 7 presidential election widely deemed free and fair by international observers. Western leaders need to get over their “Ukraine fatigue” and engage the country, its new president, and its people more than they have in the past out of recognition that Ukraine matters enormously to the future of Europe.
Focus on Ukraine – Ukraine and the EU: A Family PortraitJanuary 27, 2010 / Alina Inayeh
The incoherence of the EU's approach to Ukraine has pushed Ukraine to believe the European Union has lost interest in the country. Ukraine's leadership blames the EU for closing the door. The European Union, in turn, blames Ukrainian leaders for their lack of political will to reform and to act on promises made after the Orange Revolution.
On Turkey – Turkey and the EU: Looking Back on 2009January 26, 2010 / Diba Nigar Göksel
Since 1999, Turkey has been a candidate for membership in the European Union. Early on, the process of accession united divergent political and social camps and triggered a virtual cycle of change. For the past few years, however, both the pace of reforms to meet the EU's political criteria and the enthusiasm for membership have declined.
Moldova’s window of opportunityJanuary 20, 2010 / Pavol Demeš, Alina InayehAsk most Americans and Europeans to identify Vladimir Filat or find Moldova on a map and you're likely to get a blank stare. Both, however, are worth getting to know. Filat is the new prime minister of Moldova, a small country of four million people that emerged from the break-up of the Soviet Union nearly 20 years ago and borders Ukraine and Romania. Despite its size, Moldova is an important piece to the puzzle of trying to achieve the vision of a Europe whole, free, and at peace.Focus on Ukraine – Democracy in ProgressJanuary 19, 2010 / Mark Cunningham, Pavol Demeš
Voters in Ukraine went to the polls on Sunday to cast their ballots for the country’s next president. As expected, none of the 18 candidates secured enough votes to win in the first round, necessitating a second round between the two top vote-getters: former Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych and current Prime Minister Yuliya Tymoshenko. Both candidates speak of improving relations with Russia and deepening ties with the European Union and the United States.
Focus on Ukraine: Security Choices After the Election: New Direction for Ukraine?January 13, 2010 / Joseph R. Wood
Although NATO membership is not getting headlines in this year's Ukrainian presidential election, the broader issue of Ukrainian security is very much at stake. The most logical course for Ukrainian security policy is to continue military reform and modernization at a measured pace. Without serious governance and a reasonably clear strategic direction, Ukraine's security situation will remain precarious.
What are the transatlantic lessons for East Asian institution-building?January 12, 2010 / Akiko Fukushima
East Asia, which has only engaged in serious institution-building over the past two decades, is today home to a crowded, multi-layered landscape of regional organizations. While initially suspicious of adopting European models for regional cooperative institutions, Asia has now become more open to such concepts. However, important differences remain in the way in which Asia adopts-and adapts-its institutional architecture over the coming decades.
Focus on Ukraine: More than a Neighbor: Why Ukraine MattersJanuary 05, 2010 / Joerg Forbrig, Dakota Korth
With expectations disappointed among Ukrainians, and impatience widespread in the West, it may be tempting to disregard the January 17, 2010 presidential election as just another in an endless series of polls that have done little to advance Ukraine in recent years. That verdict, however, would be as premature as it would be irresponsible.
Kurdish Opening: Onto the Second RoundDecember 23, 2009 / Soli Özel
Turkey had two options: Wage war and send the military across the border to northern Iraq, where the PKK made the Kandil mountain range their headquarters, or engage politically with Iraqi Kurds and seek serious reform at home.
Ukraine’s Presidential Election: A PrimerDecember 18, 2009 / Soli Özel
On January 17, 2010, Ukrainian voters will go to the polls to choose their next president. Nobody knows who the winner will be — and that reflects very well on Ukraine's democratic development. Most observers expect that next month's election, while not flawless, will continue a trend in Ukraine of "free and fair" elections. This is the first in a GMF series, Focus on Ukraine. The set of briefs will discuss Ukraine before, during, and after the 2010 presidential election.
The Lisbon Treaty: Implications for Future Relations Between the European Union and the United StatesDecember 15, 2009 / Soli Özel
GMF Executive Vice President Karen Donfried testified Tuesday, December 15, before the Subcommittee on Europe of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs. Her testimony addressed the Lisbon Treaty and the implications on transatlantic relations.
Torino as a Learning CityDecember 08, 2009 / Tim Campbell
This report reflects the results of a month-long field study of learning by the city of Torino, Italy. Previous work on this topic has suggested that cities deliberately learn, that other cities are preferred outside sources of knowledge, and that more or less informal networks of public, private, and civic minded persons are central to the processes of learning and innovation in successful cities.
Turkey’s Kurdish Gambit: The Road to PeaceNovember 13, 2009 / Amberin Zaman
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has launched a bold campaign to end the country's long-running Kurdish problem.
The New Turkish LexiconNovember 03, 2009 / Ian Lesser
Overtures toward Tehran, Damascus, Baghdad, the Kurdish regional government, and Turkey's own Kurds have contributed to the perception of a "Turkish moment," in which new ground is being broken on virtually a daily basis. Turkey's leadership seems unconcerned by the potential risks of dilution and overstretch, and so far, there has been little to check Ankara's momentum.
Women in Turkey — What is on Paper, What is in Practice?August 31, 2009 / Diba Nigar Göksel
The World Gender Gap Index of 2008 ranked Turkey 123rd of 130 countries. Turkey's action-or inaction-regarding female participation in local politics is crucial to improving the place of women in Turkish society, and the place of Turkey in the world.
Ron Asmus Responds to HeilbrunnAugust 29, 2009 / Diba Nigar GökselThe author takes issue with Jacob Heilbrunn's August 20 piece entitled "Yalta Redux" about the Open Letter from Central and East European Leaders to the Obama administration.Medvedev’s MessageAugust 21, 2009 / Diba Nigar GökselRussia's president, Dmitri Medvedev, has had a busy August. On Aug. 11, he wrote to the Ukrainian president, Viktor Yushchenko, announcing his decision to delay - indefinitely - the dispatch of the new Russian ambassador to Ukraine. Mr. Medvedev explained his decision by citing Mr. Yushchenko's anti-Russian policies. He also hinted that the decision might be reversed after Ukraine's presidential election in January, when the country will have "new political leadership."[Re]Nationalization in EuropeAugust 21, 2009 / Joseph R. Wood
Evidence suggests an accelerating trend toward renationalization of policy in key domains in Europe. This trend presents both dangers and opportunities for Europe and the United States. The return of constructive nationalism, among nations with well-defined rules of cooperation, might paradoxically energize Europe in ways that Brussels has not been able to achieve.
The Purpose of Constitutional Reform in Bosnia and HerzegovinaAugust 10, 2009 / Douglas Davidson
To become a member of the European Union, Bosnia and Herzegovina must be capable of meeting the responsibilities that go with membership. The purpose of constitutional reform should be to strengthen the central institutions of representative democratic governance; to set out a clear and workable division of responsibilities between the regional and the central governments; and to bring the country into conformity with its international obligations.
Prodding the Liberal Agenda With a PitchforkAugust 02, 2009 / Dan MorganClimate change legislation was moving along in the House in June when it ran into a tractorcade. Dozens of farm-state lawmakers, led by the blunt-talking Minnesotan who chairs the House Agriculture Committee, blocked the way.Recapitulating Yugoslavia: Culture, Politics, and State-Building in Bosnia and HerzegovinaJuly 31, 2009 / Douglas Davidson
In many ways Bosnia and Herzegovina resembles a mini-Yugoslavia. "Ethnonationalism" dominates not just the country's constitution but also its governance and its culture. Because of this it cannot truly become a liberal democracy until its governance and its political institutions begin to function properly and in the interests of all its citizens. Because democracy is more than just a set of formal institutions, it is time that the international community paid greater attention to reforming both kinds of institutions — formal and informal — in Bosnia and Herzegovina as it continues to seek to create a true liberal democracy in that troubled country.
Rhetoric and Reality: Turkish Politics Inside and OutJuly 30, 2009 / Diba Nigar Göksel
The debate about Turkey's foreign policy in Washington centers around whether Turkey is anchored to the West as it strengthens its regional ties or whether Turkey is intent on creating a second bloc, a "Muslim pole," for a new and just world order. Though it is in the interest of the United States that Turkish democracy is consolidated, Washington has a limited set of tools to steer Turkey down this path. The EU process is the single most influential factor in correcting the many distortions with in Turkey's political world.
Change Management: Deciding Who is in Charge in TurkeyJuly 15, 2009 / Soli Özel
Turkey recently passed an important threshold in the great power shift from the military to civilian authorities that started at the beginning of the decade. Rooted in Turkey's social and political transformation, but strongly aided and secured by the EU accession process, this power shift reconfigures the politics of the republic. Whether this deepening civilianization will lead, as expected, to a rule based democratic consolidation and finally finish the "second transition" from democratic government to democratic regime remains to be seen.
Is America Becoming Post-Racial while France is Becoming Post-Social?July 02, 2009 / Philippe Bernard
As Barack Obama's election asks the question of a "post-racial" America, France wonders about putting more race in their class-based policies.
An Anachronistic Approach to RussiaJune 26, 2009 / Joseph R. Wood
In July, President Obama will meet Russian President Medvedev for the second time to hear the results of the negotiations for an agreement to replace the START treaty, which is set to expire this year. Using Cold War means, arms control, to cope with post-Cold War problems allows Russia to divert attention from the real problems we face and claim superpower-like prestige for which it longs.
A New View of Success for Central EuropeJune 15, 2009 / Joseph R. Wood
Before 1989, the practical definition of success for countries under the Soviet yoke was straightforward: an end to communism and foreign domination. After 1989, success became securing the political freedom and prosperity that they had missed during their exile from European civilization. As Joseph R. Wood describes in this brief, the countries of Central Europe must now lead the memorialization of the crimes of the communist era, remedy the European Union's democratic deficit, and reduce Eurovision and contemteporary Hollywood to forgotten footnotes in western creative history.
A Culture of Trust and Tolerance, or a Beautiful, but Lonely Turkey?June 12, 2009 / Özgür ÜnlühisarcıklıAs Victor Hugo said, nothing is stronger than an idea whose time has come. Perhaps this is why the new survey on "Radicalism and Extremism" in Turkey, conducted by Prof. Yýlmaz Esmer, a member of the steering committee of the World Values Survey, has stimulated a heated debate even though its findings are neither new nor surprising.How Tiananmen Changed China — And Still CouldJune 04, 2009 / Daniel TwiningForeign PolicyAbsent from almost all Chinese education curricula, the Tiananmen Square massacre of June 4, 1989 marks a pivotal point in Chinese economic and socio- political history. That day, thousands of innocent lives were lost and the rising desire for political liberalization and democratic reform crushed. Over the past 20 years, however, the repercussions of Six-four have deeply affected China's political, social and economic agenda. As the country is rapidly growing from a low-cost manufacturing into a developed, consumer-based society, Chinas find itself confronted with a very different set of problems. GMF Fellow Dan Twining reflects on the sweeping changes in Chinese society and closely examines their economic, social and political impact and what they can tell us about China's future.
Turkey’s Kurds: Toward a Solution?June 04, 2009 / Amberin Zaman
The campaign for an independent Kurdish state by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) has been termed Turkey's number one headache. This brief examines the steps necessary for both sides to come to a peaceful solution.
Then and NowJune 01, 2009 / Pavol Demeš
There will be numerous events taking place this year commemorating the 20th anniversary of the fall of the Berlin Wall, among them the CEE Trust's Civil Society Forum in Bratislava in September and the European Foundation Centre and Grantmakers East Forum conferences in Berlin in November. In advance the author shares some of his personal assessments of the last two decades and raises a few harder and unavoidable questions.
Walking Through the Open Door: The U.S. Role in Helping Bosnia-Herzegovina Join a Europe Whole and FreeMay 28, 2009 / Douglas Davidson
Addressing recent developments in Bosnia and Herzegovina, GMF Fellow Douglas Davidson offers recommendations for U.S. government policy to help the country implement first steps towards gaining EU membership.
Ukraine on the BrinkMay 28, 2009 / Douglas DavidsonRussia has always had a knack for overshadowing its neighbors - and this time the West, focused on Moscow, is distracted from a crisis in Ukraine. As U.S. President Barack Obama gears up to "reset" Russia relations, Ukraine is in disarray. The country is teetering between economic collapse, Russian influence, and vague promises of Western support. It will take decisive moves from Washington to help pull Ukraine back from the edge. At the least, Obama should visit ailing Ukraine and prove that good relations with Russia don't meant forgetting the rest of the region.Moldova: The Twitter Revolution that Wasn’tMay 28, 2009 / William H. HillThe protest that greeted Moldova's recent election represented domestic frustrations, not an abortive color revolution. Addressing Moldova's deep-seated problems of poverty, criminality and national identity will require constructive input from Western powers.Green HornetMay 18, 2009 / William H. Hill
A review of Paul Hockenos' Joschka Fischer and the Making of the Berlin Republic: An Alternative History of Postwar Germany.
GMF Fellow Lesser testifies on U.S.-Turkish relations before House committeeMay 14, 2009 / Ian Lesser
GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Dr. Ian O. Lesser testified on May 14 before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs. He outlined the new dynamics and next steps in U.S.-Turkish relations. Lesser's testimony is available for download below.
Turkey’s Cabinet Reshuffle: Another Balancing ActMay 11, 2009 / Amberin Zaman
On May 1, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced his new cabinet ushering in nine new ministers and letting go of eight others. This dramatic reshuffle reflects Erdogan's hallmark strategy of balancing different and often competing constituents within his party.
Turkey and ArmeniaApril 17, 2009 / Amberin ZamanAfter months of tortuous diplomacy, Turkey and Armenia have put the final touches to a deal that would establish diplomatic ties and re-open their borders. The agreement is poised to end decades of mutual hostility, to blunt Russian influence, and to help foster economic prosperity and democracy in the Southern Caucasus.
Talking Transatlantic, Turning Toward Asia?April 01, 2009 / John K. Glenn, Daniel Twining
President Obama makes his first trip to Europe amid growing signs that European leaders may resist his calls for help on resolving the economic crisis, contributing to Afghanistan, and managing detainees from Guantanamo. Europeans quietly wonder about the depth of President Obama's commitment to Europe.
Germany’s Russia Question: A New Ostpolitik for EuropeMarch 30, 2009 / Constanze StelzenmuellerLast July, more than 200,000 people flocked to a public park in Berlin to hear Barack Obama, then the Democratic candidate for president of the United States, deliver a speech calling for renewed transatlantic partnership and cooperation. Now that Obama is president, will Germany respond to the call and join the United States as a key European partner in addressing global challenges and threats?
Is Russia Friend or Foe?March 11, 2009 / Joseph R. Wood, Niels Annen
Niels Annen and Joseph Wood offer two perspectives to this question in Annen's "Fearing a Weak, Embracing a Strong Russia: There is no alternative to engagement with Moscow" and Wood's "Worldview Matters: The Kremlin's behavior limits the scope of Western engagement."
The Legacy of 1989March 11, 2009 / Robert Hutchings, Robert Leicht
In "The European Question, Revisited: The vision of a continent whole and free is unfulfilled" by Robert Hutchings and "The German Question, Revisited: Why unification in 1990 created peace in Europe - and previous attempts did not" by Robert Leicht, the authors offer two perspectives on the fall of the wall, 20 years later.
European Gas Policy in TroubleFebruary 26, 2009 / Jörg Himmelreich
The Ukranian-Russian gas stand-off caused a two-week interruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe that left countries like Greece, Bulgaria, and Slovakia in the cold during a strong winter and revealed again how vulnerable the European Union is in its gas supplies from Russia. Jörg Himmelreich suggests four hard decisions that must be made by the EU. Europe needs to address the varying dependencies on Russian gas within member states, the lack of interconnectivity within the market, discuss the need for a European common external energy policy, and establish of a European energy agency.
Beyond DavosFebruary 17, 2009 / Soli Özel
Despite the theatrics and the surge of anti-Israeli and anti-Semitic sentiment in Turkey, the government's positions suggest that Turkey still sees a role for itself in Middle East peacemaking, wants Israel to be more concerned about regional instability, and wishes to work with the United States if and when the new administration re-engages with the region.
Going in All DirectionsJanuary 14, 2009 / Soli Özel
While simultaneously reacting to the conflict between Israel and Hamas and conducting another wave of arrests in the Ergenekon case, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkey’s prime minister, suddenly appointed Egemen Baðýþ as Turkey’s chief EU negotiator. Time will tell if this indicates a rekindling of the EU accession process after nearly three years of lethargy and growing political and public disinterest.
Winning Kurdish Hearts and Minds: The Battle Shifts to the AirwavesJanuary 12, 2009 / Amberin Zaman
President Barack Obama faces a formidable set of international challenges including wars in Iraq and Afghanistan, the prospect of a nuclear Iran, a resurgent Russia, and a short calendar for a new treaty on climate change. On each of these issues, Europeans have the potential to play a key role as allies. President Obama has called for the mending of relations with Europeans, but the ability of the United States and Europe to address these pressing foreign policy challenges will be constrained by the financial and economic crisis.
Dealing with Revisionist RussiaDecember 13, 2008 / Amberin ZamanAmong the foreign policy challenges facing President-elect Barack Obama is the need for a new strategy toward Russia. Moscow is both a partner and competitor.Two Roads Diverge in the South CaucasusDecember 05, 2008 / Emre Erdogan
Two roads diverge in the South Caucasus and the newly elected U.S. administration can take either one. On the one hand it can support steps for cooperation and can mark the very first example of the new world order by permanently ignoring the signals of domestic politics; or on the other hand it can prioritize domestic political pressures, thus contributing to fragility and instability in the region.
Committed to Change, or Changing Commitments?November 17, 2008 / Soli Özel
Geopolitical realities seem to have once more elevated Turkey's importance in American foreign policy decisions. In the past, Turkey's strategic importance and America's reliance on it had an inverse relationship to the deepening of Turkish democracy.
The Battle of the GiantsSeptember 30, 2008 / Soli Özel
Unlike the rest of the world, where the word "turmoil" would immediately bring to mind the financial crisis that is terminating an era of financial sector and neoliberal ideological domination in economic affairs, in Turkey, "turmoil" these days means the serially erupting corruption cases and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's personal declaration of war against media tycoon Aydın Doğan and his multi-business empire. The war's true meaning, however, has gone beyond the confines of an Erdoğan-Doğan war. It has brought to light the unhealthy, corroding pattern of relations between media and political power, the hidden and obvious costs of a non-transparent, non-accountable system of patronage, and the frightful distance between EU and Turkish criteria on freedom of expression.
The Court BlinksJuly 31, 2008 / Soli Özel
Turkey's Constitutional Court decision not to ban the AK Party, in spite of ten members being convinced that they were indeed guilty of some political wrongdoing, means that Turkey's political problems and its struggles for power will now have to be settled in the political realm, by the ballot box and not by extra-political means. In its own peculiar way, Turkey is clearing its own path toward becoming a better democracy and the thorny issue of Turkish secularism will need to be settled through political bargains and processes rather than judicial fiat.
Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin – Summer 2008June 23, 2008 / Soli Özel
A new fiscal year has begun for the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and the Balkan Trust for Democracy (BTD) — it is the time when we reflect on our past year's work, and I am proud to share our accomplishments with you now. GMF held two major events in March and April this year, Brussels Forum and the Bucharest Conference, where BTD staff participated as part of the GMF team effort to organize these high-level meetings.
Internationalizing the Georgia-Abkhazia Conflict Resolution Process: Why a Greater European Role is NeededJune 01, 2008 / Svante Cornell, Antje Herrberg, Nicu Popescu
The last several years have seen a deterioration in the situation, a growing tension level in the conflict zone and an increased danger of renewed conflict in Abkhazia. At stake is not only Abkhazia or Georgia, but the rules of the game in European security.
Turkey’s Travails: Outlook and Strategic ConsequencesMay 01, 2008 / Ian Lesser
As Turkey’s Constitutional Court prepares to act on the closure case pending against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turks across the ideological spectrum are watching and waiting. Predictions and preferences abound; active responses are limited. Caution and inertia appear to be the order of the day, even for those most exposed to the consequences of political and economic turmoil.
Bucharest Conference PapersApril 01, 2008 / Robin Shepherd
Edited by Robin Shepherd of Chatham House and released in advance of the Bucharest Conference and ahead of the official NATO Summit, the Bucharest Conference Papers are written by independent authors on the topics of NATO's mission in Afghanistan; NATO enlargement; global cyber defense and NATO; and NATO's relationship with Russia.
Kosovo: The Balkans’ Moment of Truth: Testimony before Senate Committee on Foreign RelationsMarch 04, 2008 / Ivan Vejvoda
Ivan Vejvoda, executive director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, testified before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding Kosovo and the Balkans.
Balancing National Security and CommerceMarch 01, 2008 / Henry Farrell
Following several years of tension between Europe and the United States, policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic have rediscovered pragmatism. Apparently irreconcilable differences of values are giving way to new forms of practical cooperation. However, the new transatlantic relationship differs from the old one in some very important ways. New issues that involve access to various forms of security-sensitive economic information are becoming increasingly prominent. These issues, however, do not fit neatly into the traditional boxes of the transatlantic relationship.
The Crisis of the Post-Cold War European Order: What to Do About Russia’s Newfound Taste for Confrontation With the WestMarch 01, 2008 / Ivan Krastev
The author of this paper argues that Russia’s newfound taste for confrontation with the West is not an emotional overreaction or theatrical grandstanding – it is a strategic choice. The Kremlin’s new foreign policy is not circumstantial in nature. It is the expression of a new foreign policy consensus within the Russian elite and the Russian society at large. The author analyzes what the West can do to allow the coexistence of a post-modern European Union and a post-imperial Russia.
Of Ayatollahs and Jacobins: Rebalancing after the Rise of Revolutionary Powers–A Historical Lesson for Transatlantic Policy Toward IranMarch 01, 2008 / David Ignatius
In this paper, the Iranian revolution of 1979 is compared to the French revolution of 1789 in its destabilizing effects—and in the need it created for a new balance of power.
Charting a Euroatlantic Vision: The United States and Serbia on the 60th Anniversary of the Marshall PlanDecember 12, 2007 / Michael Polt
On June 26, 2007, then-U.S. Ambassador to Serbia Michael C. Polt delivered a speech at the Guarnerius Cultural Center in Belgrade on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the Marshall Plan. Drawing on George C. Marshall's vision of a recovered, united, and free Europe, Ambassador Polt urged the Serbian people and their leadership to join the United States and Europe in a common effort to fulfill the Marshall ideal for Serbia as well.
Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin – Fall 2007September 18, 2007 / Michael Polt
The Balkan Trust for Democracy periodically releases a seasonal Bulletin in which it shares grantee success stories, the latest BTD news, and letters from Executive Director Ivan Vejvoda.
Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin – Summer 2007July 01, 2007 / Michael Polt
The Balkan Trust for Democracy periodically releases a seasonal Bulletin in which it shares grantee success stories, the latest BTD news, and letters from Executive Director Ivan Vejvoda.
GMF News: Trade survey released, Bulgaria Fund, Journalists visit Vietnam/CambodiaMay 12, 2007 / Michael PoltThe lastest GMF information on past events, publications, policy papers along with recent podcasts and blogs.
Staring At False ChoicesApril 01, 2007 / Constanze StelzenmuellerMuch of Europe's malaise is caused by staring at a battery of binary choices. Choices about our future structure as a Union: integration or enlargement? Choices about whom to consider as citizens: include or exclude? Choices about our foreign relations: values or interests?Transatlantic Cooperation and Conflict over Privacy Rules: Lessons for International Market RegulationMarch 25, 2007 / Abraham Newman
Personal information ranging from credit card purchases to retina scans are increasingly being collected and processed by industry and government. With the rise of global digital networks, this data moves quickly across borders. Differences in national regulations concerning data privacy, then, become the foundation for a new area of regulatory conflict. Written by Professor Abraham Newman of Georgetown University.
MMF at 25: Reflections on a Transatlantic LegacyMarch 08, 2007 / Abraham Newman
Created in 1982 to introduce a new generation of European leaders to America’s institutions, politics, and people, GMF celebrates 25 successful years of Marshall Memorial Fellowship program.
Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin – Spring 2007March 01, 2007 / Abraham Newman
The Balkan Trust for Democracy periodically releases a seasonal Bulletin in which it shares grantee success stories, the latest BTD news, and letters from Executive Director Ivan Vejvoda.
Reclaiming Democracy: Civil Society and Electoral Change in Central and Eastern EuropeFebruary 14, 2007 / Pavol Demeš, Joerg Forbrig, Robin Shepherd
Variously labeled "color revolutions," "transitions from postcommunism," or "electoral breakthroughs," and for some representing even a new "wave of democracy," the recent changes in the post-Soviet nations have fascinated scholarly observers and democratic activists alike. This book provides a cross-section of perspectives on recent democratic breakthroughs in Central and Eastern Europe. Case studies drafted by civic leaders present inside accounts of how civil society helped to assert democracy, while comparative analyses by academic experts shed light on a range of further factors that facilitated these changes, including the semi-authoritarian nature of postcommunism, economic aspects, civil society strategies and resources, and youth participation.
Next Steps in Forging a Euroatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black SeaNovember 20, 2006 / Pavol Demeš, Joerg Forbrig, Robin ShepherdNext Steps in Forging a Euroatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black Sea, edited by Ronald Asmus with a forward by Javier Solana, presents concrete ideas of what a more ambitious and forward leaning strategy for the Black Sea could and should be. The book consists of contributions from a number of expert authors from the United States, the European Union, and the wider Black Sea region.Transatlantic Connections, Transforming CommunitiesOctober 15, 2006 / Pavol Demeš, Joerg Forbrig, Robin ShepherdAs part of GMF's efforts to document and publicize the concrete value of transatlantic learning to the well-being of cities and regions in the United States and Europe, GMF identified, located and interviewed a number of grantees and study tour participants from the 1970s, 1980s and 1990s to ascertain the impact their GMF experiences had on their communities. The resulting report, Transatlantic Connections Transforming Communities, identifies the key components to successful transatlantic learning and highlights several examples where relatively small investments in time and money have led to significant change over time.Prospects for Democracy in Belarus- 2nd EditionOctober 12, 2006 / Pavol Demeš, Joerg ForbrigPublished jointly by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation of Germany, Prospects for Democracy in Belarus provides a systematic account of recent developments in Belarus, combined with more strategic and policy-oriented considerations on improving Western democracy assistance. It brings together perspectives of twenty-five contributors, including activists, analysts, and policymakers from Belarus, Europe, and the United States. They explore prospects for democracy in Belarus by scrutinizing the domestic and international context prior to the recent elections, by providing a variety of perspectives on the presidential poll and the events surrounding it, and by discussing a variety of options for improving Western, and especially European, support for democracy in Belarus. Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin – Fall 2006October 01, 2006 / Pavol Demeš, Joerg ForbrigWe at the Balkan Trust for Democracy celebrate the beginning of our fourth year of grantmaking. With over 357 proposals reviewed and 156 grants made, fiscal year 2006 was our most productive yet. Together with our donors, partners, and grantees, we reaffirmed our dedication to strengthening democracy throughout the region, and look forward to continuing to do so for years to come.
Serbia’s Current Issues and Future Direction: Testimony before the House Committee on International RelationsSeptember 20, 2006 / Ivan Vejvoda
Testimony by Ivan Vejvoda, executive director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, before the Subcommittee on Europe and Emerging Threats of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on International Relations on September 20.
Diversity as a Foreign Policy AssetJune 15, 2006 / Michael WerzIn the inaugural paper in the GMF Paper Series, Michael Werz argues that Europe's, and specifically Germany's, demographic changes over the last 15 years have not been reflected in the makeup of its governments and especially its foreign policy and foreign service. Werz argues that European governments could learn much from the United States' experience with its own foreign service and diversity in government.Prospects for Democracy in BelarusApril 01, 2006 / Pavol Demeš, Joerg ForbrigPublished by GMF and the Heinrich Böll Foundation, Prospects for Democracy in Belarus provides a systematic account of recent developments in Belarus and strategic and policy-oriented considerations on improving Western democracy assistance. It brings together perspectives of 25 contributors, including activists, analysts, and policymakers from Belarus, Europe, and the United States.Ukraine After the Orange RevolutionMay 02, 2005 / Joerg Forbrig, Robin ShepherdUkraine's recent Orange Revolution opens an enormous opportunity to reinvigorate the democratic reform process in that country and to bring it closer to European and transatlantic structures. A new book just released by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, jointly with the Heinrich Boell Foundation of Germany, brings together renowned experts from Ukraine, Europe, and the United States to look more closely and systematically into the steps needed to take advantage of this opportunity both domestically and internationally.
Bosnia-Herzegovina: Unfinished Business: Testimony Before the House Committee on International RelationsApril 06, 2005 / Ivan VejvodaTestimony by Ivan Vejvoda, executive director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, before the Subcommittee on Europe and Emerging Threats of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on International Relations.No Magic WandAugust 01, 2004 / Ivan Vejvoda
As the Balkan countries move away from being zones of conflict and post-conflict towards stability and democratic consolidation, so some private and public funders have moved away from the Balkans to regions of greater need. But others, in particular some bilateral donors and the European Union, remain steadfast in their support. The Balkan Trust for Democracy, now one year old, is a partnership between some of the key funders that have remained. What has it achieved so far?
A New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea RegionJuly 01, 2004 / Joerg Forbrig, Konstantin DimitrovIt addresses a key strategic question facing the Euro- Atlantic community today: should the United States and Europe embrace the goal of anchoring the countries of the broader Black Sea region in the Euro-Atlantic community? The authors of the essays contained in these pages argue that they should. They challenge us to go beyond those voices, which currently insist that Europe's unification is complete and that the enlargement of NATO and the EU must be put on hold. They challenge us to think - once again - in a big and bold fashion about adopting and pursuing policies that can change the map of Europe.Democracy and Human Development in the Broader Middle EastJune 01, 2004 / Urban AhlinAt the beginning of the 21st century, the Atlantic community faces a new challenge — to help promote democracy and human development in the broader Middle East. The reasons are both strategic and moral.
Developing a New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea Region: Istanbul Paper #2May 27, 2004 / Urban AhlinA series of historically unprecedented events have brought the attention of the West to the wider Black Sea region—that area including the littoral states of the Black Sea, Moldova, and the Southern Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. An area that has heretofore been neglected by the Euro-Atlantic community is now starting to move from the periphery to the center of Western attention.German Marshall Fund 2003 Annual ReportDecember 01, 2003 / Urban Ahlin2003 has turned out to be an even more challenging year for U.S.–European relations. Serious policy differences between the United States and Europe over the war in Iraq, the use of American power, the future of the Middle East, and a host of other issues dominated an acrimonious agenda. Substantive concerns were exacerbated by overheated rhetoric and accusations of betrayal and arrogance in the media and elsewhere. The situation became so rancorous that some prominent analysts began considering a world in which the United States and Europe might be estranged politically and strategically for many years to come.Wie weit? Wie tief? Wie schnell?January 01, 2001 / Ulrike GuérotSpeech given in Berlin to the annual conference of the Böll-Foundation
Executive summary in English, with full text in original language in attached file
