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On Defense, France Bites the Bullet, But Avoids Strategic Insolvency May 7, 2013
Iceland’s Recovery Saga Presents Opportunities for Brussels, Washington—and Beijing May 6, 2013
Which Way Forward for Europe’s Hybrid Regimes? May 2, 2013
The Arab Revolts and the Liberal Order May 2, 2013
Events
GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
Publications Archive
The Difficult Case for British Membership in the EUMay 01, 2013 / Hans Kundnani
This policy brief discusses a possible British withdrawal from the European Union.
The Future of Mediterranean Europe: Between the Euro Crisis and Arab RevolutionApril 16, 2013 / Emiliano Alessandri
This policy paper looks at a Southern Europe that is increasingly disillusioned with and more openly critical of both their national governments and the EU.
Spain’s Hidden StrengthsApril 10, 2013 / Tomás Duplá del Moral
This policy brief outlines Spain’s enduring economic strengths.
Brussels Forum ViewsMarch 19, 2013 / Tomás Duplá del Moral
This collection from the 2013 Brussels Forum examines the theme “The Fragility of the Global System.”
Turkish Economy 2000-2010: A Decade of TransitionMarch 11, 2013 / Sena Eken, Susan Schadler
This policy brief discusses views on what changed in Turkey's economy and what did not.
The East-West Black Sea/Caspian Sea Corridor in the Age of UncertaintyMarch 06, 2013 / Iulian Chifu
This policy brief advocates for the development of a trade corridor between the Caspian Sea and Europe.
Avoiding a Shrinking EU in an Expanding Planet: A Turkish Contribution to the Debate on Europe’s FutureFebruary 28, 2013 / Bahadır Kaleağası
This policy brief offers suggestions for how Europe can regain it's pre-Great Recession status as a world leader.
A Deeper and Wider AtlanticFebruary 06, 2013 / Emiliano Alessandri, Riccardo Alcaro
While there is no strategic imperative to think ‘pan-Atlantic’, there is very much a functional advantage in doing so. As argued by Ian Lesser, functional interaction is a fully acceptable – and indeed a desirable – driver for wider Atlantic cooperation.Trade and investment imbalances, energy and environmental issues, counterterrorism, antipiracy, maritime security, all these are challenges of transnational, even ‘transregional’ concern. Countries along the Atlantic rim can only benefit from greater coordination on these matters.
The End of the JourneyJanuary 30, 2013 / Simon Serfaty
This policy brief explores the future of the EU in light of the eurocrisis, and the resulting implications for the transatlantic relationship.
Crisis Talk: How the United States Discusses Europe’s WoesJanuary 04, 2013 / Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, Peter Sparding
This policy brief analyzes the anatomy of the U.S. debate about the euro crisis.
The GCC in the Mediterranean in Light of the Arab SpringDecember 21, 2012 / Silvia Colombo, Kristian Coates Ulrichsen, Shafeeq Ghabra, Shadi Hamid, Eman Ragab
This policy paper examines how countries in the Gulf region are responding to the Arab Spring.
Southern Europe in Trouble: Domestic and Foreign Policy Challenges of the Financial CrisisDecember 14, 2012 / Theodore Couloumbis, Andrea Dessì, Thanos Dokos, Paulo Gorjão, Ettore Greco, Dimitris Katsikas
This policy paper focuses on four financially volatile countries: Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal.
How the European Crisis Impacts ChinaNovember 30, 2012 / Qin Yaqing
This policy brief argues that the European crisis has improved China’s position in the global arena.
U.S.-China Economic Relations in the Wake of the U.S. ElectionNovember 29, 2012 / Bruce Stokes
This policy brief looks at likely pillars of the Obama administration’s economic policy toward China in its second term.
Global Swing States and the Financial OrderNovember 27, 2012 / Joseph Quinlan
This policy paper looks at how Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey view the global financial system.
Global Swing States and the Trade OrderNovember 27, 2012 / Jennifer Hillman
This policy paper looks at the influence of Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey on international trade.
New Dangers to the Western Liberal OrderNovember 02, 2012 / Ian Bremmer, Mark Leonard, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff
This policy brief presents two views on a purported widening divide between Berlin and Washington, DC.
Gas Discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean: Implications for the European UnionOctober 26, 2012 / Michael Koehler
This policy brief explains why the EU needs to be involved in Eastern Mediterranean natural gas issues.
Foreign Direct Investments (FDI) to the Middle East and North Africa Region: Short- and Medium-Term DevelopmentsOctober 18, 2012 / Sergio Alessandrini
This policy brief looks at foreign investment in the countries of the Arab Spring.
A Transatlantic Partnership — Agricultural IssuesOctober 10, 2012 / Eric Trachtenberg
This policy paper looks at ways to solve the agricultural trade disputes the United States and the EU.
Beyond the Euro Crisis: Implications for U.S. StrategyOctober 04, 2012 / Aaron Friedberg
This policy brief identifies a range of plausible scenarios for the further unfolding of the euro crisis and considers their implications for U.S. strategy.
Agriculture in North Africa: A Chance for DevelopmentOctober 04, 2012 / José María García Alvarez-Coque
This policy brief analyzes the missing elements in strategic policies for sustainable agricultural development in North Africa.
Can the EU Bicycle Turn into a Jet Plane by 2020?September 25, 2012 / Vivien A. Schmidt
This policy brief proposes two scenarios for the EU, based on the assumption that the eurozone will move towards closer economic and political integration.
Transatlantic Trends 2012September 12, 2012 / Constanze Stelzenmueller
The 2012 Transatlantic Trends paints a picture of a complex relationship between the United States and Europe, and how they respond to global challenges.
Turkey and the European SclerosisSeptember 10, 2012 / Soli Özel
This policy brief argues that the eurocrisis provides more justification for Turkey to join the EU.
Brazil-EU Relations: Beyond the Eurozone CrisisSeptember 04, 2012 / Marcus Vinícius de Freitas
This policy brief looks at the economic and political ties between Brazil and Europe.
Rebalancing Works: The Prospects for the Eurozone ReconsideredAugust 20, 2012 / Jürgen Matthes
This policy brief argues the U.S. debate about the eurozone is filled with misunderstandings leading to overly skeptical conclusions.
Geography of OpportunityAugust 06, 2012 / Ryan Streeter
This policy brief asks why some regions in the United States and Europe have grown during the economic crisis while others have lagged.
What do High-Growth Firms in the United States and Europe Teach Policymakers?August 06, 2012 / Ryan Streeter
This policy brief explains why economic policymakers should focus on high-growth small firms for job creation.
The East-West Strategic Corridor: Multiple Opportunities and BenefitsAugust 06, 2012 / Iulian Chifu
This policy brief advocates for a trade corridor between Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Russia’s Joining the WTO — Different Approaches to Human Rights Concerns Across the AtlanticJuly 19, 2012 / Jennifer Hillman
With Russia's upcoming WTO admission, Europe and the U.S. will pressure the country to improve its human rights record. This paper examines the different approaches they will take.
New Socio-Political Actors: The Brotherhood and Business in EgyptJuly 18, 2012 / Jane Kinninmont
This policy brief looks at the economic policy plans of Egypt's Muslim Brotherhood.
Euro-Mediterranean Prospects and RisksJuly 17, 2012 / Marco Zatterin, Claudio Tocchi
This policy brief encourages Europe to invest in the countries of the Arab Spring.
Aid, Trade, Investment and Governance in Sub-Saharan Africa: By the NumbersJuly 06, 2012 / Veronika Penciakova
This policy brief examines trade and investment development strategies in Africa.
Ideational and Material Power in the Mediterranean: The Role of Turkey and the Gulf Cooperation CouncilJune 15, 2012 / Nathalie Tocci, Elena Maestri, Soli Özel, Serhat Güvenç
This policy paper explores how neighboring countries are affecting the nations of the Arab
Spring.
This paper sketches out three ten-year scenarios for European strategic reactions to current events.
Global Food Insecurity and “Political Malnutrition”June 13, 2012 / Frederick S. Tipson
This policy brief examines the governance changes necessary to increase food security.
The Political Economy of Youth Exclusion in the Mediterranean: Continuity or Change?June 08, 2012 / Maria Cristina Paciello
This policy brief examines the current role of youth in the economies of Tunisia and Egypt.
Resource Curse Redux: Linking Food and Water Stress with Global Resource Supply VulnerabilitiesJune 04, 2012 / Raimund Bleischwitz, Michael G. Dozler, Corey Johnson
This report provides a preliminary map of the global resource supply vulnerabilities from at-
risk countries.
This policy brief explains how Central Asia may suffer as a result of the European financial crisis.
The Geopolitics of Chinese Access DiplomacyMay 29, 2012 / Rajeev Ranjan Chaturvedy, Guy M. Snodgrass
This policy brief addresses China's aggressive pursuit of natural resources while expanding its transport networks and points out the need to better understand Chinese access diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific.
A Transatlantic Perspective on the Future of LibyaMay 29, 2012 / Ronald Bruce St John
This policy paper looks at energy supply, illegal migration, investment and trade, and security issues between Libya and Europe.
Israel’s Economy and the Arab Spring: Isolation Serves as a BufferMay 22, 2012 / Stephen Weizman
This policy brief looks at how uprisings in Israel's neighbors have affected its economy.
Transatlantic Mining Corporations in the Age of Resource NationalismMay 18, 2012 / David Humphreys
This paper examines trends in mining and considers their implications for transatlantic mining companies and for the availability of mineral supplies in Europe and North America.
The Global Resource Nexus: The Struggles for Land, Energy, Food, Water, and MineralsMay 15, 2012 / Philip Andrews-Speed, Raimund Bleischwitz, Tim Boersma, Corey Johnson, Geoffrey Kemp, Stacy D. VanDeveer
This study addresses challenges arising from unprecedented global demand for land, energy, food, water, and minerals.
The Path Toward a Two-Speed EuropeMay 11, 2012 / Giancarlo Chevallard
This policy brief examines two possible ways forward for European financial institutions.
Reversing the Vicious Circle in North Africa’s Political Economy: Confronting Rural, Urban, and Youth-Related ChallengesMay 09, 2012 / Maria Cristina Paciello, Habib Ayeb, Gaëlle Gillot, Jean-Yves Moisseron
This report provides an analysis of the policy failures behind the process of marginalization and exclusion that was at the origin of the Arab Spring.
When Sisyphus met Icarus: EU-China Economic Relations during the Eurozone CrisisMay 02, 2012 / Fredrik Erixon
This policy brief examines how China, the EU, and EU member states work with each other economically.
Korean Hallyu in Trade PolicyApril 25, 2012 / Patrick Messerlin
This policy brief looks at South Korea's use of preferential trade agreements.
Japan, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, and the United StatesApril 06, 2012 / Bruce Stokes
The Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) is a wide-ranging trade initiative that is intended not only to eliminate tariffs but also to offer greater protection for intellectual property and to lower non-tariff trade barriers. The Japanese government’s decision in November 2011 to consider joining the negotiation has dramatically raised U.S. stakes in the deal. And the Tokyo government’s desire to join the TPP talks has sparked a divisive debate in Japan. In the end, whether Japan is in or out of TPP will come down to politics in both Washington and Tokyo.
Narcissism of Minor Differences or Major Economic Rifts? The Political Economy of (Post) Financial Crisis Management in the United States and the European UnionApril 04, 2012 / Stormy-Annika Mildner, Daniela Schwarzer
After highlighting the key similarities and differences of the respective policy approaches in this policy paper, the authors discuss possible root causes for the financial crisis.
Rebuilding Together: The Renewal of Transatlantic Leadership in the Global EconomyMarch 19, 2012 / John Schellhase, Thomas Gietzen
This Brussels Forum paper is the winner of the Young Writers' competition.
Economic and Trade Relations between North Africa and the Leading Players in the Mediterranean Basin: What can be Expected after the Arab SpringMarch 09, 2012 / Maria Rosaria Carli, Luca Forte
This policy brief looks at the economic impacts of the Arab Spring.
India and the European Union: Dim ProspectsMarch 08, 2012 / Mohan Guruswamy
This policy brief looks at the future of India's relations with the EU.
Crisis Invigorates Japan-Europe Cooperation, But for How Long?March 05, 2012 / Satoru Mori
This policy brief looks at the impacts of the euro crisis on Japan.
Is a Two-Speed Europe the Solution?February 27, 2012 / Michael Leigh
This policy brief examines possible futures for the European Union.
Your Pain is Our Pain: The United States and the European Debt CrisisFebruary 23, 2012 / Joseph Quinlan
This policy brief discusses the effects of the European debt crisis on the transatlantic economy.
The Dynamics of Transatlantic Negotiations in ServicesFebruary 21, 2012 / Patrick Messerlin, Erik van der Marel
This paper argues that the two largest world economies, the United States and the EU, should launch bilateral negotiations on services.
A New Era for Transatlantic Trade LeadershipFebruary 13, 2012 / Patrick Messerlin, Erik van der Marel
In a new report, the Transatlantic Task Force on Trade and Investment calls for creation of a barrier-free transatlantic market as part of ambitious, realistic recommendations for a new U.S.-EU trade and investment agenda to promote economic growth, jobs and economic development.
Morocco’s New Geopolitics: A Wider Atlantic PerspectiveFebruary 10, 2012 / Ian Lesser, Geoffrey Kemp, Emiliano Alessandri
This study argues that Morocco should encourage policymakers in the United States and Europe to think more imaginatively about its role in the Atlantic and elsewhere.
What Europeans Think About the EurocrisisFebruary 01, 2012 / Bruce Stokes
Bruce Stokes analyzes dozens of European surveys conducted over the past year on key issues relating to the euro crisis.
The Limits of German PowerJanuary 19, 2012 / Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff, Hanns W. Maull
This policy brief explains that Europe is demanding the Germans come to the rescue — only to find a country in search of purpose and strategy.
A Europe that Can Still Say No? China and the Eurozone CrisisJanuary 09, 2012 / Andrew Small
China’s potential involvement in the eurozone crisis has triggered a wave of speculation about the political, economic, and strategic implications of China “buying up” or “bailing out” Europe. But the reality has been less dramatic. China did not swing in behind the European Financial Stability Facility. There has been no sign of the EU offering major concessions to China in the hope that this will smooth the way for Chinese cash. The broader state of EU-China relations will depend significantly on how China and the EU deal with each other through a period that is not just an economic crisis for Europe but an existential one.
Russian WTO Accession and the Geneva Agreements: Implications for Russia and GeorgiaDecember 19, 2011 / Andras Racz
This paper looks at the broader consequences of the deal between Georgia and Russia to allow Russia to join the WTO.
Securing Access to Critical Raw Materials: What Role for the WTO in Tackling Export Restrictions? Four Proposals for a Transatlantic AgendaDecember 08, 2011 / Stormy-Annika Mildner
This paper outlines proposals for dealing with export restrictions on critical raw materials....
Time for a Transatlantic Reset: Talking Trade at the U.S.-EU SummitNovember 23, 2011 / Claudia Schmucker, Stormy-Annika Mildner
This policy brief argues for removal of nontariff trade barriers between the United States and EU....
Europe, G20, and South-South Trade: Insights from European Approaches to Regional Integration in AfricaNovember 17, 2011 / Sanoussi Bilal, Isabelle Ramdoo, Quentin de Roquefeuil
This paper highlights some of the features of European support to regional economic integration in Africa and the increasing presence of emerging players....
Graduate Unemployment in the MaghrebNovember 02, 2011 / Ghazi Ben Jaballah
This policy brief outlines strategies to address growing unemployment among university graduates in North Africa.
Foreign Investment in India after the Global Financial CrisisSeptember 21, 2011 / Ashley Thomas Lenihan
Foreign direct investment both into, and out of, India has yet to recover to the levels reached before the global financial crisis. Both formal and informal barriers to investment remain challenges for foreign investors in India. Given the importance of such investment for future Indian growth — and relations between India and the transatlantic community — the Indian government should continue to seek regulatory and legal reforms that enable greater FDI flows.
Euro-Expansion: Whither the Prospects?September 20, 2011 / Miguel Rodrigues
This policy brief looks at the future of expansion for the European currency....
The Baltic States and Energy Security in Europe — Much Progress Made on a Critical IssueSeptember 20, 2011 / Miguel Rodrigues
This policy brief touches upon some of the most compelling issues that energy security raises as they relate to the Baltic states.
The Core of Europe — A New Way to Look at ItSeptember 20, 2011 / Miguel Rodrigues
This policy brief asks if it is possible to suggest criteria that could help identify those who belong to a loosely defined “core of Europe.”...
Turkey and the Mediterranean: Balancing Geopolitics and Geo-EconomicsSeptember 19, 2011 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief examines Turkey's economic and political interests in the Mediterranean region....
Transatlantic Trends 2011September 14, 2011 / Zsolt Nyiri, Ben Veater-Fuchs
The 2011 edition of Transatlantic Trends paints a picture of a complex relationship between the United States and Europe and how they respond to global challenges....
The Economy in the Arab Uprisings: Difficulties and TransformationsSeptember 12, 2011 / Giorgio S. Frankel
This policy brief examines the economic fallout from the Arab Spring, particularly on the role of Western powers in the region....
Promoting African Trade and Regional Integration: The Tripartite FTA and the Role of Development CorridorsAugust 30, 2011 / Greg Gajewski
This policy brief explores the status of and obstacles facing the Tripartite Free Trade Agreement, and discusses the ways transatlantic partners may be able to increase support for this effort....
Ideas for New Transatlantic Initiatives on TradeAugust 03, 2011 / Friedrich Heckmann, Lisa Brandt
This policy paper explores what forms a transatlantic free trade initiative could take....
The United States, European Union, and International InvestmentJuly 29, 2011 / Peter Chase
This policy brief examines the formal trade relationship, or lack thereof, between the United States and the EU....
China’s Economic Remodeling and EuropeJuly 28, 2011 / Paweł Świeboda
China often stresses that there are similarities between its new five year economic plan and the Europe 2020 strategy — both of which are focused on green, intelligent, and inclusive growth. The perceived parallels between the two programs can be usefully exploited in the EU-China dialogue both to address areas of contention and to find areas for cooperation.
Chinese FDI in the United States and Europe: Implications and Opportunities for Transatlantic CooperationJuly 28, 2011 / Thilo Hanemann
Chinese direct investment in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries is taking off, and flows to America and Europe are poised to grow substantially over the next decade. The change from one-way to two-way direct investment flows will transform U.S. and European economic relations with China in the years ahead and openness to Chinese FDI, and the implications thereof, will become an important topic on the transatlantic policy agenda.
The Two UkrainesJuly 20, 2011 / Rajan Menon
This policy brief compares Ukraine's relations with the EU and Russia.
Public Support for Trade PolicyJuly 20, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
This policy paper examines the attitudes of Europeans and Americans toward international trade.
Markets, Trade, and Development in Madagascar: Recommendations for G20 Support for Governance Reforms and InvestmentJuly 11, 2011 / Salim Ismail, Fabrice Lehmann, Jean-Pierre Lehmann
This brief provides insight into trade policies from the perspective of a least developed country exporting industry.
The Multilateralism Conundrum: International Economic Relations in the Post-Hegemonic EraJuly 07, 2011 / Guy de Jonquières
The Doha Development Round and the WTO suffer from a broad systemic malaise that is besetting multilateralism, argues Guy de Jonquières in a new ECIPE/GMF working paper.
The G20′s Coming Currency Challenge: Do We Need Heirs to the U.S. Dollar — and Are There Any?June 16, 2011 / Joseph Quinlan
This policy brief argues that the U.S. dollar is still a vital global currency.
Will China Rule the World? A View from New DelhiJune 08, 2011 / Indrani Bagchi
It may be tempting in light of China’s growing power and reach to imagine a world in which China is dominant. Although China’s policies of noninterference might seem appealing to many developing countries, its demands for obedience and its state-led growth will threaten the liberal capitalist order advanced by the West. China’s growth also masks its continuing vulnerability to economic shocks, social instability, and ethnic separatism. Internationally, China will see its ambitions constrained by rising powers along its periphery, the U.S. presence in Asia, and its support for failing states such as Pakistan and North Korea.
South Africa, the G20, and Regional Integration in Sub-Saharan AfricaJune 07, 2011 / Peter Draper
This policy brief examines South Africa's role in the G20 as a champion for African economic development.
The G20 and Global ImbalancesMay 26, 2011 / Barry Eichengreen
This policy brief argues that the G20 has continued to make global imbalances and their correction a focus of its deliberations.
The G20, Emerging Powers, and Transatlantic RelationsMay 26, 2011 / Stefan A. Schirm
This policy paper focuses on the efficiency and legitimacy of the G20, embedding emerging powers in global governance, and the implications of the G20 process for the transatlantic countries.
Trade Policy after DohaMay 26, 2011 / Gary Hufbauer, Dean DeRosa
This policy brief argues that if the major G20 countries want to invigorate the process of trade creation, they have little choice but to forge deals with each other.
The Politics of India’s Unfinished Economic ReformsMay 13, 2011 / Swaminathan S. Anklesaria Aiyar
Despite at least two decades of reforms, the liberalization of India’s economy is incomplete. This is primarily a function of politics. Indian political leaders have few incentives to advance the reform agenda given India’s high growth rate, and instead prefer handouts in the form of welfare schemes and employment guarantees. While some advances are being made, future economic liberalization in India will likely be hesitant, episodic, and half-hearted.
Cutting Their Losses: Using Scarce Food Security and Development Resources to Combat Post-Harvest Loss and Provide Support for WomenMay 05, 2011 / Symantha Holben, Kathryn Thulin
This policy brief recommends a shift in donor emphasis to improve food security and increase incomes in developing countries.
Europe’s Relations with China: Lost in Flight?April 28, 2011 / François Godement
This paper explores the changing relations between China and Europe over recent years.
A G20 Agenda for Trade and Development in Poor CountriesApril 22, 2011 / Kimberly Ann Elliott
This brief examines the nexus between trade and development in poor countries in sub-Saharan Africa and elsewhere.
Twenty-First Century Regionalism, Doha, and the Future of the WTOApril 11, 2011 / Richard Baldwin
This policy brief argues that saving the Doha negotiations is only the first step in saving the WTO.
The Atlantic Imperative in an Era of a Global Power ShiftApril 07, 2011 / Klaus-Dieter Frankenberger
This policy paper argues that the United States and Europe must work more closely together in order to not lose their place in the world order.
Convoy Unraveled: Why U.S. and European Post-Crisis Economic Policies Differ (And What to do About It)March 31, 2011 / Jean Pisani-Ferry
This Brussels Forum Brief proposes five measures that the EU and United States could take together to help regain some form of economic coordination despite many obstacles.
Deep Cuts: What the Age of Austerity Means for Global Public GoodsMarch 31, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
This Brussels Forum brief says that it is time for a transatlantic dialogue on the implications of fiscal austerity for global public goods.
New Institutions for a New World: The Transatlantic Alliance and the Future of the Global Economic OrderMarch 31, 2011 / David Post, Pierce O'Reilly
This Young Writers Award winning brief argues that the transatlantic alliance needs to draw on its tradition of institutional innovation to strengthen transatlantic competitiveness and define the economic rules of the game for the 21st century.
Continental Rift: Bridging Transatlantic Differences on Economic Policy Toward ChinaMarch 15, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
Despite shared frustrations and interests and some tactical cooperation, Washington and Brussels lack a game plan for transatlantic relations with China. The United States and Europe have disagreed on the Chinese security challenge, currency manipulation, and current account and trade imbalances. But they share concerns about Chinese state capitalism, violations of intellectual property rights, a lack of reciprocity on foreign investment, and an absence of Chinese implementation of free trade principles. The impending designation of China as a market economy provides a window of opportunity to leverage a Chinese course correction.
Transatlantic Trends: Leaders 2011March 15, 2011 / Bruce Stokes
This report presents the first systematic survey of the views of leaders in the European Union and the United States on the state, nature, and challenges of transatlantic relations.
Reforming Economic Reforms: Europe and the Ongoing Transformation in Mediterranean CountriesMarch 09, 2011 / Franco Zallio
This policy brief looks at the future of economic reform in the turbulent southern Mediterranean region.
Inclusive GrowthMarch 04, 2011 / Iain Begg
The economic crisis has led to a widespread re-appraisal of the economic governance of advanced capitalist economies. Unsustainable growth and imbalances have been shown to have damaging effects that have been masked by short-term success, prompting a fresh look at the form and rate of economic growth. Gradually, a new paradigm may be emerging in which the shape as well as the rate of growth matters.
Presentation: World Economic Outlook: The United States and EuropeMarch 04, 2011 / Jörg Decressin
Powerpoint Presentation: IMF - World Economic Outlook - The United States and Europe
The New Transatlantic Capitalism and the Prospects for Job Creation in the RecoveryMarch 04, 2011 / Jörg Decressin
The paper, published as part of the project "New Atlantic Capitalism," shows how, in contrast to the outcome of earlier recessions, European labor markets have weathered the effects of the Great Recession noticeably better than that of the United States, how on both sides of the Atlantic many of the jobs lost during the Great Recession have likely disappeared permanently, and describes how the United States and Europe face different policy challenges in addressing this shock.
Winning the Prosperity: Creating a New Economic Growth PathMarch 03, 2011 / Sherle Schwenninger
In the United States, the Obama administration has at time spoken eloquently about establishing new foundations for the economy and has more recently outlined an agenda for “winning the future.” This paper examines the extent to which the Obama program, along with the actions of the Federal Reserve, has succeeded in putting the economy onto a new economic growth path and what further options they have in the future for doing so.
Losing Control: The Transatlantic Partnership, the Developing Nations, and the Next Phase of GlobalizationMarch 01, 2011 / Joseph Quinlan
This paper explains that the future of globalization will be less U.S.-centric and more encompassing of Chinese, Turkish, Brazilian, and other characteristics of the developing nations.
Why Principles – and not Players – Should Determine the Nature of the Emerging International OrderMarch 01, 2011 / Dhruva Jaishankar, Joshua W. Walker
This Brussels Forum Brief says that the arrival of new global powers presents the West with a dilemma: whether to prioritize players or principles in creating a new international architecture that contributes to the continuity and efficacy of international norms.
The Real G2: Americans, Europeans, and their Role in the G20February 25, 2011 / Steffen Kern
This paper argues that the United States and the European Union are the source of the financial market governance problem – and its solution.
China in the Mediterranean: Recent Developments and New ChallengesFebruary 22, 2011 / Franco Zallio
This policy brief examines economic relations between China and Mediterranean countries.
Discovering Southern and East Africa’s Industrial OpportunitiesJanuary 26, 2011 / César A. Hidalgo
This paper examines economic opportunities in Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia.
Maritime Transport and Regional Cooperation in the Mediterranean BasinJanuary 19, 2011 / Franco Zallio
This policy brief examines scenarios for expanded regional transportation cooperation in the Mediterranean Basin.
Africa’s Metamorphosis: Are Transatlantic Partners Prepared?January 13, 2011 / Jean-Michel Severino, Olivier Ray
This policy brief argues that Africa’s demographic and economic changes call for a more reflective and constructive public discussion in the transatlantic community.
GMF and IPC conclude survey mapping of U.S. and EU public and private sector activity in southern & eastern African agricultureJanuary 01, 2011 / Jean-Michel Severino, Olivier Ray
From August until November 2010, the German Marshall Fund (GMF) and International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council (IPC) commissioned independent researcher Suzanne Zweben to compile information about the landscape of transatlantic public and private investment currently underway in the agriculture and rural support sectors in Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia. This research was based primarily on publicly available documentation about public and private investments, supplemented by off-the-record conversations and interviews with several transatlantic stakeholders and investment or project managers.
Maritime Commerce and Security in the Mediterranean and Adjacent Waters – Summary ReportDecember 22, 2010 / Emiliano Alessandri, Silvia Colombo
This report summarizes the main issues on maritime commerce and security debated during the fourth meeting of the Mediterranean Strategy Group, held in Genoa, on October 24 -26, 2010.
GCC Economic Presence in the Mediterranean and the Outlook for EU-GCC CooperationDecember 21, 2010 / Valeria Talbot
This policy paper examines the impact of foreign direct investments by the Gulf Cooperation Countries on the Mediterranean region, including the effect on the EU.
U.S. Trade Preference Programs: Lessons for Europe from the U.S. Struggle to Get It RightDecember 21, 2010 / Laura Baughman
In this policy paper, Laura M. Baughman offers a pointed analysis of the U.S. experience trade policymaking and offers lessons that Europe might learn from the United States in the particular realm of trade preference programs.
Turkey as a Regional Economic Actor: Successes and WeaknessesNovember 23, 2010 / Franco Zallio
In this latest of the Paralleli Brief series, the author outlines Turkey's economic ties in the eastern Mediterranean region.
The Future of Syria’s Economic Reforms between Regional Integration and Relations with the WestNovember 12, 2010 / Franco Zallio
This policy brief examines the implications of economic reforms in Syria on its relationship with countries in the West.
What Can We Realistically Expect From the G20?November 10, 2010 / Simon Evenett
This policy brief takes stock of the G20’s accomplishments and methods of operation, cutting through the rhetoric to identify what can reasonably be expected of the G20 over the medium term.
What Will Basel III Achieve?November 10, 2010 / Adrian Blundell-Wignall, Paul Atkinson
This paper offers specific recommendations for changes to the Basel III financial regulatory framework.
Corruption and confidence in public institutions: evidence from a global surveyNovember 02, 2010 / Zsolt Nyiri
Well-functioning institutions matter for economic development. In order to operate effectively, public institutions must also inspire confidence in those they serve. The authors use data from the Gallup World Poll, a unique and very large global household survey, to document a quantitatively large and statistically significant negative correlation between corruption and confidence in public institutions.
Will Rising India Join The West?November 01, 2010 / Raja Mohan
Sustained high economic growth rates, averaging around 8 percent in the first decade of the 21st century, have made India one of the top economies in the world. With current GDP at over US$1 trillion and per capita income at over $1,200, India is now the world’s 11th largest economy. In purchasing power parity terms, India puts itself in the top five. The economic slowdown in the West and the prospect of China’s growth rate decelerating to single digits might well make India the fastest growing economy in the world in the not-too-distant future.
Rejecting “The End of the West”: A New Narrative for Transatlantic RelationsNovember 01, 2010 / Mircea Dan Geoana
The global realignment triggered and then amplified by the financial crisis and the economic downturn in developed economies is having a profound effect on the way the West perceives itself. This in turn is having far-reaching ramifications for the transatlantic relationship and international security generally.
In the Wake of Destruction: A New World Order?November 01, 2010 / Janice Gross Stein
The global economy has just come through a near-death experience. Although it is out of intensive care, it is still not out of danger, and the early rush of euphoria in the spring of 2009 is being replaced by sober recognition of just how massive was the destruction and how steep and how long is the road to recovery.
A Disgruntled Public on the Eve of the G20 Seoul SummitOctober 29, 2010 / Bruce Stokes
This policy brief analyzes attitudes in selected G20 member nations towards their economies and leadership.
Globalization at Risk: Challenges to Finance and TradeSeptember 23, 2010 / Kati Suominen, Gary Clyde Hufbauer
The financial crisis of 2008-09 has now placed at risk the liberal economic policies behind globalization. This book explores the future of globalization.
Racing Against Time: Reform in North Africa and Transatlantic StrategiesJuly 22, 2010 / J. Scott Carpenter
This paper explores recent economic and political developments in Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia and the mechanisms by which the transatlantic community has sought to channel social, political, and economic change in them — for both good and ill.
Direct Investments and Institutional Cooperation in the Euro-Mediterranean RegionJuly 19, 2010 / Franco Zallio
Prospects for European direct investments in Mediterranean countries and for Euro-Mediterranean trade flows are favorable. However, private actors playing the key role in promoting Mediterranean economic integration, while political initiatives languish.
Transatlantic Cooperation in the Middle East and North Africa and the Growing Role of the Gulf StatesJuly 16, 2010 / Tobias Schumacher
Gulf Cooperation Council countries’ political and economic ties with the Arab Mediterranean Countries and Turkey have strongly increased in the last decade. This study reveals that the GCC countries’ growing presence in the AMCs has had positive repercussions for the relevant NATO and EU cooperation frameworks.
Looking Back on the Fall of the Eastern Iron Curtain: How Turkey Rediscovers her South Caucasus NeighborhoodJuly 12, 2010 / Burcu Gültekin Punsmann
The break-up of the Soviet Union had far-reaching consequences for Turkey’s immediate neighbourhood. Turkey discovered a new world in her vicinity that had remained separated by what might be called the ‘Oriental’ Iron Curtain. The development of regional integration strategies that strengthen links between Anatolia and the South Caucasus would be a major step toward boosting intra-regional trade and access to world markets.
Toward a Transatlantic Approach to Technology Transfers to ChinaJuly 09, 2010 / May-Britt U. Stumbaum
After years of clear distinctions between friend and foe during the Cold War, commercial partners of the United States and Europe now offer attractive trade opportunities and security risks at the same time. High technology trade with China presents the transatlantic partners with one such dilemma, but competing interests and different threat perceptions between — and within — the United States and Europe with regards to China also raise the possibility of future transatlantic disputes. Under these circumstances, the United States and Europe must work together to forge a concerted approach to dual-use technological transfers.
Rebalancing Global Growth: The G20′s Difficult ChallengeJune 24, 2010 / Wendy Dobson
As American consumers retire from serving as the engine of world growth, the major surplus economies will have to pick up the slack. This is why global rebalancing is a key item on the G20 agenda in the 2010 Toronto and Seoul Summits. The United States requires a plan for fiscal consolidation, and China should implement its domestic rebalancing goals to see a rise in household incomes and domestic consumption as well as exchange rate appreciation. Other East Asian nations will need to reduce their reliance on export-led growth by importing and consuming more while Germany, as the main European surplus economy, should stimulate domestic demand and lead structural reforms in the eurozone.
This time will be different? Addressing the unsound post-crisis drivers of global imbalancesJune 23, 2010 / Kati Suominen
G20 members should bolster their previously agreed ‘framework for strong, sustainable and balanced growth’ so that nations adhere to it in good times as well as bad. Washington’s goal must be fiscal policies that ensure US economic resilience and compel others to adjust; China needs to be both pressured and co-opted through institutions as well as recognize that cultivating new sources of growth is in its economic and political self-interest.
Beyond Free Trade: Mediterranean Economic Integration After the CrisisJune 09, 2010 / Franco Zallio
This fourth contribution from Franco Zallio examines how the Mediterranean region has coped with the international economic crisis. He explains that renewed growth in Mediterranean countries will promote greater regional integration, both with European countries and within the southern Mediterranean.
Non-Fiscal Instruments of Public Transit Infrastructure Funding: Engaging Beneficiaries and Private Capital at the Local LevelJune 07, 2010 / Oliver Mietzsch
As CDP fellow Oliver Mietzsch states in this policy brief, fiscal realities dictate that Germany begin looking at alternative methods of financing, especially public-private partnerships and land value capture policies that take advantage of transit oriented development strategies.
Missing the Point(s): The Declining Fortunes of Canada’s Economic Immigration ProgramJune 07, 2010 / Edwina O'Shea
Finding the right model to manage an economic immigration program is certainly a topical challenge. Canada has a long tradition of managing an economic immigration program, but despite 40 years of experience the Canadian system is today in a state of flux. In the past two years a series of measures have been implemented, some administrative and others legal. Most dramatically, in 2008, legislative amendments brought the promise of far-reaching change. But what really can these measures achieve?
Should the Nabucco Pipeline Project be Shelved?May 19, 2010 / Katinka Barysch
If the Europeans believe that Nabucco will achieve objectives that go beyond enabling some energy companies to make a profit by shipping additional gas to Europe, then they should give it stronger public support.
A New U.S.-European Approach to Trade and Development in Sub-Saharan AfricaMay 17, 2010 / Katinka Barysch
We are at a critical turning point in trade and development policy with sub-Saharan Africa. The vehicles for large-scale international policy change, including the Doha Development Round and developed country agricultural reform, have, at least temporarily, ground to a halt. The deadline for meeting the Millennium Development Goals is fast approaching, yet we are nowhere close to realizing them. Poverty alleviation is starting to show signs of success in some parts of Asia, but sub-Saharan Africa continues to suffer from seemingly intractable poverty on a massive scale, and hunger is increasing.
A Very Secular Affair: The Power Struggle of Turkey’s ElitesMay 14, 2010 / Michael Thumann
This paper describes the rise of the periphery elite and sheds light on the fears of the classical centrist elite. It depicts the structural deficits of the Turkish political system that obstruct a smooth transition from the dominance of the classical elite to political competition in a democracy and a fair distribution of power in the country.
Absent revaluation, retaliation? Reactions to U.S. restrictions on Chinese exportsApril 01, 2010 / Kati Suominen
Should the United States take action over China’s exchange-rate policy? This paper argues "yes." But while China would be momentarily hurt by any tariffs, the longer-term sufferers would be U.S. companies, workers, and consumers. The United States should instead follow C. Fred Bergsten’s three-stage plan of engaging the IMF and WTO. The column adds that a long-run solution should be fleshed out within the G20.
Exit Strategies: How Soon? How Fast? How to Coordinate?March 22, 2010 / Jean Pisani-Ferry, Jakob von Weizsaecker
As the global economy returns to growth, countries need to plan for an exit from the emergency measures taken during the crisis. The question is: How soon? How fast? And how to coordinate? Authors Jean Pisany-Ferry and Jakob von Weizsaecker argue that budget consolidation should start in 2011 and that central banks should not prematurely tighten monetary policy.
Saving MultilateralismMarch 22, 2010 / Jennifer Hillman
GMF author Jennifer Hillman contends that rebuilding the house of global governance from the ground up will be nearly impossible. Instead, she argues: renovate the building. Transform the G20 into a Board of Governors for the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, and the World Trade Organization. Ms. Hillman calls on Europe to end its overrepresentation in order to ensure that these bodies continue to be useful to all nations rather than atrophy.
Mediterranean Natural Gas: Greater Supply, Less Interdependence?February 26, 2010 / Franco Zallio
Taking stock of recent changes in the natural gas market, this brief explores the implications for transatlantic relations and interdependence between Europe and the Southern Mediterranean.
Power Shift: How the West Can Adapt and Thrive in an Asian CenturyJanuary 22, 2010 / Ashley J. Tellis
How can the United States and its transatlantic allies overcome the primary security dilemma of the 21st century, that of sustaining an economic system that will fuel the rise of China, a power whose growing clout threatens to challenge Western control over the international system? This paper explores solutions to overcoming this quandary. In "Power Shift: How the West Can Adapt and Thrive in an Asian Century," Tellis argues that the answer lies in a combination of further economic enmeshment fueled by deepening globalization, the maintenance of Western military superiority, and a realistic and multifaceted engagement of China.
Focus on Ukraine: Energy Security for Ukraine and EuropeJanuary 11, 2010 / Jörg Himmelreich
Reforming Ukraine's energy sector is vital for the future of Ukraine's economy and security. Ukraine's economic recovery depends on reforming the energy sector, which has suffered severe politicization since the 1990s leading to non-transparent business operations and mega-corruption. European concerns about secure gas supplies from Russia, via Ukraine, have become the overarching policy matter on the current EU-Ukraine agenda. To strengthen Ukraine's energy sector, the new Ukrainian president should start abandoning domestic subsidies for oil and gas prices and let the price reach global market levels.
The Economic Crisis and the Mediterranean: Mixed Effects, Longer-Term QuestionsJanuary 07, 2010 / Franco Zallio
This brief, the first in a series on the Mediterranean and the economic crisis, explores the impact of the global pressures on key countries in North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean, including Israel and Turkey. The analysis suggests that most countries in the region are weathering the financial aspects of the crisis reasonably well, helped in some cases by a sharp recovery in energy prices.
The Lisbon Treaty: Implications for Future Relations Between the European Union and the United StatesDecember 15, 2009 / Franco Zallio
GMF Executive Vice President Karen Donfried testified Tuesday, December 15, before the Subcommittee on Europe of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs. Her testimony addressed the Lisbon Treaty and the implications on transatlantic relations.
Updating Economic Partnership Agreements to Today’s Global Challenges: Essays on the Future of Economic Partnership AgreementsNovember 19, 2009 / Franco Zallio
African and Pacific countries continue to negotiate the challenging Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs) with the European Union. These new agreements have the potential to help African countries accelerate their economic growth and develop more resilient economies. However, the presence of negotiating deadlocks or a sense of fatigue as well as the lack of real appetite for these agreements among many African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) negotiators, raise legitimate questions regarding their structure and content, as well as their ability to constitute instruments to leverage economic growth.
Arctic Security: The New Great Game?November 01, 2009 / Daniel Fata
Environmental change in the Arctic combined with the ever more rapacious search for new energy sources has turned what was once a barely noticed wilderness into the focal point of new competition between the states that border it and the great powers that want a part of it. The world needs to find ways to manage this competition peacefully and in a way that prevents damage to one of the most important ecosystems on the planet.
Strategies and Incentives for Matching Disabled Workers with Jobs: Lessons for Italy from the United StatesOctober 20, 2009 / Patrizia Saroglia
This policy paper provides recommendations to Italy's Piedmont region government on how to better encourage people with disabilities to become employed and to leave cash assistance programs.
Long-Term Challenges Facing European Agriculture: The Need for New Public and Private PoliciesOctober 19, 2009 / Patrick Messerlin
This policy brief argues that European agriculture will face significant challenges over the coming decades. Issues like the effects of climate change, the management of natural resources, and the constant battle to keep our food safe are altering the debate significantly. A broad vision will be needed to incorporate these different challenges into the Common Agricultural Policy and match them up with the most appropriate policies.
Linking Japan and the Transatlantic Community in the Age of Asia’s RiseSeptember 28, 2009 / Michito Tsuruoka
The relationship between the transatlantic partners and Japan has been internationally considered as being of paramount importance in the past. Now, however, the relationship between the transatlantic community and Japan has lost precedence due to a greater focus on a rising India and China. The G7/8 has made way for the G20.
The Effect of EU Climate Legislation on Business CompetitivenessSeptember 14, 2009 / Mark Kenber, Oliver Haugen, Madeleine Cobb
A prominent issue in the U.S. debate on climate policy is the potential impact that a cap-and-trade system might have on the economic competitiveness of energy-intensive and trade-exposed industries. U.S. policymakers and stakeholders can look to Europe to gauge these potential impacts.
The Global Economic Crisis: Strategic Implications for Turkey, Europe, and the United StatesJuly 28, 2009 / Ian Lesser
GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Dr. Ian O. Lesser offers his summary and reflections on the debate from the Trilateral Strategy Group meeting in Istanbul, June 4-6, 2009. His report underscores the potentially far-reaching social, political, and geopolitical consequences of the global crisis. Turkey's troubled EU candidacy may be particularly vulnerable, against a backdrop of declining prosperity and confidence in Europe. But the crisis also raises larger questions about power and competitiveness, and offers opportunities to rethink longstanding approaches to Turkey in a transatlantic context.
New Era, New Foreign PoliciesJuly 18, 2009 / Bruce Stokes
Future American trade policy will more likely reflect the lessons of today's Great Recession. Washington's need for a more sustainable international balance sheet will dictate a greater emphasis on reciprocity. The new realeconomik will have no less of an impact on America's relations with the world than did the earlier policy of liberalization.
Going on a Debt Diet Is HardJuly 04, 2009 / Bruce Stokes
The mounting federal budget deficit and cumulative U.S. government debt are issues of growing public debate. Economists hotly contest whether it is economically prudent or foolhardy to rein in expenditures in the midst of the worst economic downturn in 80 years. But either way, taxpayers may be reaching the limit of their tolerance for new government spending.
Virtue from Necessity: Why the EU and United States Should Strengthen Regulatory CooperationJune 16, 2009 / Richard Salt
Regulation, of products, services and markets, rarely sets pulses racing - and when it does, it tends to be for the wrong reasons. Yet cross-border differences in the way markets are regulated represent a growing challenge for the global economy, and demand greater cooperation from the world's economic powers. Nowhere is this demand for engagement greater than in the transatlantic economic relationship.
The Hit Parade: The Concentration of Tariff Water in Manufactured Products and the Risks to Global TradeJune 16, 2009 / Groupe d'Economie Mondiale at Sciences Po
Several decades of negotiations and unilateral trade reforms have led to large reductions in applied tariffs on industrial goods. During the same period, rounds of negotiations under GATT and at the WTO have induced their members to make commitments in the form of bound tariff rates. As a result, today many applied tariffs are much lower than the bound rates-a difference that is referred to as tariff water, or sometimes also binding overhang. The purpose of this paper is to complement the Bouët-Laborde approach, which uses a computable general equilibrium economic model that is based on assumptions that are sometimes met with skepticism by non-economists.
A New Age of Protectionism? The Economic Crisis and Transatlantic Trade PolicyMarch 11, 2009 / Kati Suominen
The 2008 financial crisis has had far-reaching implications on global trade. The first casualty of the crisis was trade finance-the credit required to move 90 percent of traded goods across borders. Rates on trade finance loans shot up by three hundred percentage points in the fall of 2008, prompting the World Trade Organization (WTO) to convene a special meeting and the World Bank to create a trade finance fund. Once it hit the real economy, the crisis undercut the demand and supply of goods in global trade. It now promises to shrink global commerce by 2.8 percent in 2009, the first decline since 1982.
European Gas Policy in TroubleFebruary 26, 2009 / Jörg Himmelreich
The Ukranian-Russian gas stand-off caused a two-week interruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe that left countries like Greece, Bulgaria, and Slovakia in the cold during a strong winter and revealed again how vulnerable the European Union is in its gas supplies from Russia. Jörg Himmelreich suggests four hard decisions that must be made by the EU. Europe needs to address the varying dependencies on Russian gas within member states, the lack of interconnectivity within the market, discuss the need for a European common external energy policy, and establish of a European energy agency.
Toward a Brighter Future: A Transatlantic Call for Renewed Leadership and Partnerships in Global DevelopmentFebruary 10, 2009 / Gunilla Carlsson, Jim Kolbe
The Transatlantic Taskforce on Development, a group comprising 24 North American and European leaders in development, released a report urging renewed leadership and partnerships in global development to political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic.
Fixing the Global Economy: Why a Better Future Requires International CooperationDecember 03, 2008 / Richard Salt
Amid talk of a new "Bretton Woods," leaders of advanced and emerging economies met for the first time in November 2008 to discuss the global financial crisis. The crisis has clearly demonstrated the potential weaknesses of the existing financial and regulatory architecture. Capital crosses borders instantaneously and virtually seamlessly, but it is national bodies that are tasked with ensuring the financial system's stability. International cooperation is required.
Turkey and the Global Economic CrisisDecember 01, 2008 / Ian Lesser
It is now apparent that the global economy is headed for a deep and prolonged crisis, with potentially dramatic consequences for emerging as well as developed markets. Turkey is in no sense decoupled from the effects of this global turmoil. Over the next few years, economic stress could have a dramatic effect on Turkey's internal and external scene, including regional security and the prospects for Turkish relations with the European Union and the United States.
Promoting Innovation to Solve Global Challenges: Opportunities for R&D in Agriculture, Climate Change, and HealthOctober 02, 2008 / Michael Kremer, Heidi Williams
Technological innovations arguably have an important role to play in addressing global challenges such as poverty, climate change, and the current food crisis. A variety of public policies exist which aim to increase incentives for innovation. Such policies can be broadly classified into two categories: "push" programs and "pull" programs. Push programs subsidize research inputs through means such as government subsidies to universitybased research, or tax credits for research and development (R&D) investments. Pull programs, on the other hand, increase the rewards for developing specific products by committing to reward successful innovations conditional on their development.
The Shape of the Future: The Transatlantic Economy by 2025October 01, 2008 / Michael Kremer, Heidi Williams
The foundation of the world economy has rested squarely on the shoulders of the transatlantic economy for the past 60 years. It is the largest, most powerful, and most productive economy in the world. And while the first decade and a half of globalization was largely driven and shaped by the United States and Europe, the world of tomorrow will be different. It will be less U.S.-centric and more crowded as new players, like China, Russia, India, and Brazil, from the developing nations reshape the global landscape.
The Battle of the GiantsSeptember 30, 2008 / Soli Özel
Unlike the rest of the world, where the word "turmoil" would immediately bring to mind the financial crisis that is terminating an era of financial sector and neoliberal ideological domination in economic affairs, in Turkey, "turmoil" these days means the serially erupting corruption cases and Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan's personal declaration of war against media tycoon Aydın Doğan and his multi-business empire. The war's true meaning, however, has gone beyond the confines of an Erdoğan-Doğan war. It has brought to light the unhealthy, corroding pattern of relations between media and political power, the hidden and obvious costs of a non-transparent, non-accountable system of patronage, and the frightful distance between EU and Turkish criteria on freedom of expression.
The Court BlinksJuly 31, 2008 / Soli Özel
Turkey's Constitutional Court decision not to ban the AK Party, in spite of ten members being convinced that they were indeed guilty of some political wrongdoing, means that Turkey's political problems and its struggles for power will now have to be settled in the political realm, by the ballot box and not by extra-political means. In its own peculiar way, Turkey is clearing its own path toward becoming a better democracy and the thorny issue of Turkish secularism will need to be settled through political bargains and processes rather than judicial fiat.
Europe and Israel: Strengthening the Partnership- Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign AffairsJuly 09, 2008 / Ian LesserSenior Transatlantic Fellow Ian Lesser testified today before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs in a joint hearing of the Subcommittee on Europe and the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. His testimony is posted in the attached document.The U.S. Presidential Election and the Prospects for Transatlantic Trade and InvestmentJuly 01, 2008 / Joseph Quinlan
The transatlantic partnership over the past eight years has been under constant strain, creating an atmosphere of disappointment and distrust on both sides of the Atlantic. This brief examines the transatlantic economic partnership on trade and investment and the prospects of whether or not that relationship will continue to flourish under a new U.S. administration in 2009 or whether there will be a new tide of protectionism.
If Not Now, Then When?July 01, 2008 / Courtney Phillips-Youman
As ministers gather around the WTO negotiating table the week of July 21 in Geneva, there are troubling questions about whether the deal that is at hand is really worth doing and whether it is even possible to conclude an agreement at present, given the political constraints-especially those associated with a U.S. presidential election year.
Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin – Summer 2008June 23, 2008 / Courtney Phillips-Youman
A new fiscal year has begun for the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and the Balkan Trust for Democracy (BTD) — it is the time when we reflect on our past year's work, and I am proud to share our accomplishments with you now. GMF held two major events in March and April this year, Brussels Forum and the Bucharest Conference, where BTD staff participated as part of the GMF team effort to organize these high-level meetings.
Internationalizing the Georgia-Abkhazia Conflict Resolution Process: Why a Greater European Role is NeededJune 01, 2008 / Svante Cornell, Antje Herrberg, Nicu Popescu
The last several years have seen a deterioration in the situation, a growing tension level in the conflict zone and an increased danger of renewed conflict in Abkhazia. At stake is not only Abkhazia or Georgia, but the rules of the game in European security.
Transatlantic Regulatory Cooperation in Services: Can it Help the Developing World?May 01, 2008 / Linda Schmid
The European Union and the United States have dynamic services markets highly integrated through deep trade and investment ties. Differences in regulatory approaches and philosophies occasionally cause transatlantic disagreement regarding how each should respond to specific challenges or market needs. This is particularly true in services, which tend to be more highly regulated than manufacturing industries.
Time to Rethink the WTO System: The United States, the European Union, and World TradeMarch 01, 2008 / Hugh Corbet
This paper argues that there is a need for reflection on the purpose of the WTO system. Putting the rapid integration of the world economy in perspective, this paper dwells on American and European leadership, or lack thereof, and on the major threats to the WTO system over agricultural protectionism and the proliferation of trade agreements. The authors conclude with alternative broad approaches to the further liberalization of trade.
Guardians of the Global System: What the Transatlantic Economic Partnership Should Give the World, and Why it Might Not DeliverMarch 01, 2008 / Richard Salt
This paper is an effort to illustrate a number of factors shaping the global political economy, in the hope of generating a long-term foundation for transatlantic cooperation.
Senate Testimony: The Foreign Aid Lessons for Domestic Economic Assistance Act of 2007February 27, 2008 / Paul Applegarth
Paul Applegarth, former GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow, testified before a Senate committee on how foreign economic aid and development lessons can impact domestic economic aid. His testimony is available for download below.
The Impacts of Biofuels on Greenhouse Gases: How Land Use Change Alters the EquationFebruary 07, 2008 / Paul Applegarth
Most prior studies have found that substituting biofuels for gasoline will reduce greenhouse gases because biofuels sequester carbon through the growth of feedstock. These analyses have failed to count the carbon emissions that occur as farmers worldwide respond to higher prices and convert forest and grassland to new cropland to replace the grain (or cropland) diverted to biofuels.
ACPs and EPAs: Where’s the Beef?January 03, 2008 / Paul Applegarth
Now that the Doha round appears to be stirring back to life, some of the world's poorest countries should be looking to multilateralism to protect their interests with a renewed sense of urgency. The perils of bilateralism and unequal negotiations have been brought into sharp focus by the year-end expiration of the WTO waiver for the Cotonou regime of trade preferences, by which the European Union offered special access to its markets for the African, Carribean, and Pacific (ACP) group of former European colonies.
Transatlantic Innovations in Affordable Capital for Small- and Medium-Sized Enterprises: Prospects for Market-Based Development FinanceOctober 25, 2007 / Jonathan M. White
Traditional state and donor-driven approaches to economic development in the SME sector have largely failed. Macroeconomic, institutional, and financial weaknesses prevail in many developing countries, hindering SME financial access and development. This report aims to invigorate a thoughtful debate on how to leverage SME potential in support of economic development, entrepreneurship, and poverty alleviation.
One Minute to Midnight: Is There Still Time to Rethink EPAs?October 24, 2007 / Claire Delpeuch
The European Union (EU) and the African, Caribbean, and Pacific (ACP) countries are entering the final phase of negotiations on Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs), a set of WTO-compliant preferential trade agreements that will substitute the current nonreciprocal preference scheme. Such agreements would liberalize bilateral trade between the EU and six ACP regional groupings. A proposed opening of ACP markets might well provoke trade diversion, cause serious government revenue losses, and hamper regional integration. This policy brief puts forward an alternative path to liberalization that would minimize these costs while still addressing the WTO constraint and their developmental goals.
Meeting Future WTO Commitments on Domestic SupportSeptember 20, 2007 / Tim Josling
The nature of future commitments on domestic support for agriculture continues to be a major sticking point in the negotiations on a new international trade agreement under the Doha Development Round of the World Trade Organization.
Effects of the EU Common Agricultural Policy and U.S. Farm Policy on Agricultural Land MarketsSeptember 20, 2007 / P. Lynn Kennedy
The Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union provides subsidies in a variety of ways. This paper analyzes the market for agricultural land in Germany and the United States and to determine how agricultural subsidies affect the price of land.
Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin – Summer 2007July 01, 2007 / P. Lynn Kennedy
The Balkan Trust for Democracy periodically releases a seasonal Bulletin in which it shares grantee success stories, the latest BTD news, and letters from Executive Director Ivan Vejvoda.
Policies for Agricultural Adjustment in Developed Countries under Trade Policy ReformJune 29, 2007 / P. Lynn Kennedy
Agriculture sectors in the United States and European Union are among the most heavily protected sectors of the global economy, but are increasingly confronted with the pressures of globalization, including ongoing trade policy reform that imposes stricter limits on subsidies and tariffs.
Setting Standards Together: For a New Transatlantic Partnership Between the EU and North AmericaMay 30, 2007 / Mattias Wissmann
The United States, Canada, and the European Union are inextricably linked through their shared economic principles and political values. However, much of the economic potential between the European Union and its transatlantic partners remains untapped. The creation of a new transatlantic economic partnership would increase trade and investment, set global standards, attract new stakeholders, and lend fresh impetus to multilateral trade negotiations.
A Long Term View on the Doha Round and the WTOMay 01, 2007 / Patrick Messerlin
The absence of clear signs from the trade negotiators in Geneva does not bode well for a rapid conclusion of the Doha Round. Moreover, the possibility of a hasty conclusion puts into question the quality of any final agreement. It is time for reflection, and therefore this paper aims to step back and focus on what has been happening - and what could happen - from a longer term perspective.
The Impact of Renewable Energy on the U.S. Farm Policy DebateMay 01, 2007 / Keith Good
Since September 2006, the market price of corn and soybeans has climbed significantly, and many agricultural observers point to the increased demand for renewable energy as a leading cause of the upward trend in prices. This report focuses on the factors that will impact the sustainability of the demand-driven surge in the market price of corn and soybeans, as well as the policy implications that higher market prices will have on the development of the 2007 Farm Bill.
Staring At False ChoicesApril 01, 2007 / Constanze StelzenmuellerMuch of Europe's malaise is caused by staring at a battery of binary choices. Choices about our future structure as a Union: integration or enlargement? Choices about whom to consider as citizens: include or exclude? Choices about our foreign relations: values or interests?EU and U.S. Policies on Biofuels: Potential Impacts on Developing CountriesApril 01, 2007 / Marcos J Jank, Géraldine Kutas, Luiz Fernando do Amaral, Andre M Nassar
GMF analyzes the impact of EU and U.S. trade policies on biofuels production and the export potential of different groups of developing countries that have engaged in the biofuels industry. The study considers the production of first-generation biofuels based on agricultural feedstock
Transatlantic Cooperation and Conflict over Privacy Rules: Lessons for International Market RegulationMarch 25, 2007 / Abraham Newman
Personal information ranging from credit card purchases to retina scans are increasingly being collected and processed by industry and government. With the rise of global digital networks, this data moves quickly across borders. Differences in national regulations concerning data privacy, then, become the foundation for a new area of regulatory conflict. Written by Professor Abraham Newman of Georgetown University.
The Rise of China: A Brief Review of the Implications on the Transatlantic PartrtnershipFebruary 07, 2007 / Joseph Quinlan
An isolated, introverted backwater less than 30 years ago, China is now one of the most robust and open economies in the world. This paper examines the the re-emergence of China and the Middle Kingdom’s rising sway in the global economy.The transatlantic partnership needs to identify areas of mutual interest with China (energy security, global climate change, etc.) and work toward common solutions that would benefit all parties. China’s rise does not represent a zero-sum game. Rather, the rise of China has been largely beneficial to all parties, with more economic gains in the offing assuming the right policies are pursued and adopted by the United States, Europe, and China.Food Aid and Its Relationship to WTO Rules and the Development AgendaJanuary 02, 2007 / Joseph Quinlan
Ever since the United Nations announced its Millennium Development Goals in 2000, there has been an ever-increasing sense of urgency with regard to ending global poverty. It is widely agreed that the most important objective of ending global poverty is eradicating global hunger, and one important mechanism for this has been the provision of food aid.
Next Steps in Forging a Euroatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black SeaNovember 20, 2006 / Joseph QuinlanNext Steps in Forging a Euroatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black Sea, edited by Ronald Asmus with a forward by Javier Solana, presents concrete ideas of what a more ambitious and forward leaning strategy for the Black Sea could and should be. The book consists of contributions from a number of expert authors from the United States, the European Union, and the wider Black Sea region.Balkan Trust for Democracy Bulletin – Fall 2006October 01, 2006 / Joseph QuinlanWe at the Balkan Trust for Democracy celebrate the beginning of our fourth year of grantmaking. With over 357 proposals reviewed and 156 grants made, fiscal year 2006 was our most productive yet. Together with our donors, partners, and grantees, we reaffirmed our dedication to strengthening democracy throughout the region, and look forward to continuing to do so for years to come.
Grands enjeux économiques mondiaux du XXIème siècleFebruary 01, 2006 / Benoît Chervalier
On February 1, 2006, GMF Transatlantic Fellow Benoît Chervalier attended a conference on trade and global governance at the Ecole Normale Superieure in Paris. The challenges presented by globalization remain high and this was an opportunity to compare freer trade policies and protectionism from a historical perspective. Below is Chervalier’s piece entitled “Great world economic stakes of the 21st century, between protectionism and liberalization: a need for world governorship” (PDF - in French).
Beyond Good Intentions for Africa’s Rural PoorDecember 01, 2005 / Mike TaylorGMF Working PaperAid, not TradeJune 01, 2005 / Jack ThurstonWhen world leaders meet in Gleneagles in July to discuss healing Africa, much will be made of the need for Africa to be better equipped to help itself. As up to 80 percent of Africans depend on farming for their livelihoods, reducing agricultural trade barriers ought to help. But will it?Ukraine After the Orange RevolutionMay 02, 2005 / Joerg Forbrig, Robin ShepherdUkraine's recent Orange Revolution opens an enormous opportunity to reinvigorate the democratic reform process in that country and to bring it closer to European and transatlantic structures. A new book just released by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, jointly with the Heinrich Boell Foundation of Germany, brings together renowned experts from Ukraine, Europe, and the United States to look more closely and systematically into the steps needed to take advantage of this opportunity both domestically and internationally.
Tsunamis and TariffsFebruary 01, 2005 / John AudleyInternational aid has poured into South Asia's devastated coastline following December's tsunamis. Despite this support, donors like the United States and the EU have been criticized for not giving enough. But perhaps the key to aid is not emptying disaster relief funds, but alleviating harsh — and often unnecessary — tariff barriers.A New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea RegionJuly 01, 2004 / Joerg Forbrig, Konstantin DimitrovIt addresses a key strategic question facing the Euro- Atlantic community today: should the United States and Europe embrace the goal of anchoring the countries of the broader Black Sea region in the Euro-Atlantic community? The authors of the essays contained in these pages argue that they should. They challenge us to go beyond those voices, which currently insist that Europe's unification is complete and that the enlargement of NATO and the EU must be put on hold. They challenge us to think - once again - in a big and bold fashion about adopting and pursuing policies that can change the map of Europe.Reconciling Trade and Poverty ReductionJuly 01, 2004 / John AudleyThe survey results show a very clear and broad picture of public opinion on the relationship between trade and poverty. While people surveyed in the United States, France, Germany, and the United Kingdom believe in fighting poverty for humanitarian reasons, they also believe that the best way to do so is by helping developing countries become self-reliant.
Democracy and Human Development in the Broader Middle EastJune 01, 2004 / Urban AhlinAt the beginning of the 21st century, the Atlantic community faces a new challenge — to help promote democracy and human development in the broader Middle East. The reasons are both strategic and moral.
Developing a New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea Region: Istanbul Paper #2May 27, 2004 / Urban AhlinA series of historically unprecedented events have brought the attention of the West to the wider Black Sea region—that area including the littoral states of the Black Sea, Moldova, and the Southern Caucasus countries of Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. An area that has heretofore been neglected by the Euro-Atlantic community is now starting to move from the periphery to the center of Western attention.German Marshall Fund 2003 Annual ReportDecember 01, 2003 / Urban Ahlin2003 has turned out to be an even more challenging year for U.S.–European relations. Serious policy differences between the United States and Europe over the war in Iraq, the use of American power, the future of the Middle East, and a host of other issues dominated an acrimonious agenda. Substantive concerns were exacerbated by overheated rhetoric and accusations of betrayal and arrogance in the media and elsewhere. The situation became so rancorous that some prominent analysts began considering a world in which the United States and Europe might be estranged politically and strategically for many years to come.