This policy brief offers possible explanations for the current peace talks between the Turkish government and PKK.

This policy brief explains how Turkey's international credibility has suffered from the situations in Syria and Iran.

This policy brief discusses a possible British withdrawal from the European Union.

This policy brief examines the role that energy plays in Turkey's foreign policy.

This policy brief examines the possible future for Israel and Turkey's relationship.

This policy brief speculates on the motives and outcomes of possible negotiations between the Turkish government and the Kurdistan Workers' Party.

This policy brief (in French) examines what potential 2016 Republican candidates need to pay attention to in foreign policy.

This policy brief examines the reasons why the Turkish government is negotiating with the PKK.

This policy brief looks at differing reactions to the Arab Spring from within the Arab world.

This collection from the 2013 Brussels Forum examines the theme “The Fragility of the Global System.”

This policy brief looks at the domestic and international pressures on Turkey regarding EU accession talks.

This policy brief examines tensions that Turkey has faced, and continues to face, in its foreign policy.

This policy brief advocates for the development of a trade corridor between the Caspian Sea and Europe.

This policy brief examines relations in Transnistria, Georgia, and Nagorno-Karabakh.

This policy brief offers suggestions for how Europe can regain it's pre-Great Recession status as a world leader.

This policy brief examines the possibilities of re-energized accession talks between Turkey and the EU.

This policy paper looks at the roles of rising powers in the Middle East and North Africa.

This policy brief outlines the conflicting foreign policy perspectives of Turkey and Iran.

This policy brief explores the changing relationship between Turkey and Iraq.

This policy brief encourages Turkey to learn from Europe and the United States as it starts international development programs.

This policy brief examines Turkey's new role in international development and foreign assistance.

This policy brief explores the future of the EU in light of the eurocrisis, and the resulting  implications for the transatlantic relationship.

This policy brief asks if the United States undergoing a real decline today.

This policy brief describes what the author calls the United States' "double rebalancing."

This policy brief introduces a series of briefs on the transformations of U.S. leadership by the year 2020.

This policy brief explores the possible motives of those who may be behind the killing of three female PKK activists in Paris.

This policy brief examines possible ways for Washington and Ankara to work together.

This policy brief examines relations between the governments of Prime Ministers Erdogan and Malaki.

This policy brief argues that Turkey behaves differently from the other "global swing states" of Brazil, India, and Indonesia.

This policy paper examines how countries in the Gulf region are responding to the Arab Spring.

This policy paper looks at the U.S. and EU reactions to the democratic transitions in North Africa.

This policy paper focuses on four financially volatile countries: Italy, Spain, Greece, and Portugal.

This policy brief describes Spain's relations with Arab Spring countries.

This policy brief outlines the current prospects for peace between Israelis and Palestinians.

This policy brief explains the policy differences between the United States and Turkey.

This policy brief outlines two relatively positive scenarios for Turkey-EU relations.

This policy brief argues that the European crisis has improved China’s position in the global arena.

This policy paper examines the challenges posed by human activity on the Atlantic Ocean itself.

This policy paper argues that countries in the Southern Atlantic region are poised to become much more important players in the global energy trade.

This policy paper examines the role of China and India in Latin America and Africa, and the implications for the United States and Europe.

This policy brief looks at likely pillars of the Obama administration’s economic policy toward China in its second term.

This policy paper looks at the maritime influence of Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey.

This policy paper examines the non-proliferation policies of Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey.

This policy paper argues that U.S. decisions today will influence whether Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey contribute to the global order tomorrow.

This policy brief describes efforts to force the Syrian regime from power.

This policy brief examines the most unstable area in an unstable country in an unstable region.

This policy brief summarizes discussions from a recent workshop with participants from the EU, Turkey, the United States, and the Middle East.

This policy brief presents two views on a purported widening divide between Berlin and Washington, DC.

This policy brief examines Turkey's role in the Balkans region.

This policy brief argues that Turkey's relationship with Russia will survive disagreement over Syria.

This policy brief explains why the EU needs to be involved in Eastern Mediterranean natural gas issues.

This policy brief recounts discussions from the September 2012 India Trilateral Forum.

This policy brief examines Greece's absence from developments in the Eastern Mediterranean.

This policy brief looks at how Turkey is responding to domestic and international pressures.

This policy brief examines Ukraine's major energy challenges and how they relate to the country's foreign policy.

This policy brief outlines the challenges and opportunities that regional integration faces in the wake of the Arab Spring.

This policy brief dispels the myths surrounding discussions on aircraft emissions between the U.S. and EU.

This policy brief describes the choices upcoming for Cyprus following the discovery of natural gas in its waters.

This policy brief discusses the choice Ukraine faces between an alignment with Russia or Europe.

This policy brief outlines the recent history of Turkey's role in the Middle East.

This survey captures perceptions about how South Korea, Europe, and the United States are responding to global power shifts.

Ties between Europe and India remain weak for a variety of economic, politico-military, and socio-cultural reasons. 

This policy brief outlines possible outcomes for the current situation in Syria and eastern Mediterranean.

This policy brief encourages more Turkish and EU cooperation in the Mediterranean region.

The 2012 Transatlantic Trends paints a picture of a complex relationship between the United States and Europe, and how they respond to global challenges.

This policy brief looks at Uzbekistan's shifting foreign policy.

This policy brief argues that the eurocrisis provides more justification for Turkey to join the EU.

This policy brief looks at the economic and political ties between Brazil and Europe.

This policy brief looks at risks to stability in a country in Afghanistan's neighborhood.

This policy brief examines Uzbekistan's actions in the wider Central Asian region.

This policy brief examines the Kurdish response to Turkey's support for Syrian rebels.

This policy brief explains the different approaches of Turkey and Russia to the Arab Spring.

This policy brief looks at pressures within Turkey regarding the Syrian uprising.

This policy brief looks at the EU's efforts to encourage democratic reform in the Arab Spring countries.

This policy brief advocates for a trade corridor between Eastern Europe and Central Asia.

The surprise results of Libya's recent election offer the transatlantic partners unexpected new opportunities to promote democratic governance, regional security, and expanded commercial interests in the region.

This policy brief argues that at its peril, Turkey is ignoring the European Fall in favor of the Arab Spring.

This policy paper explores some of the writings of an influential U.S. clergyman and their relevance today.

This policy brief examines the relationship between Turkey and the ethnic Azeri community.

This policy brief examines relations between Israel and an often overlooked portion of the Muslim world.

This policy brief encourages Europe to invest in the countries of the Arab Spring.

This policy brief advocates for diverse EU responses to the Arab Spring.

This policy brief argues for more Western support for Turkey's position on Syria.

This policy brief argues that the organization of Central Asian nations has no teeth.

This policy brief details the changing relationship of Turkey and Syria over the last decade.

This policy paper explores how neighboring countries are affecting the nations of the Arab
Spring.

This paper sketches out three ten-year scenarios for European strategic reactions to current events.

This policy brief looks at Turkey's position vis-à-vis the West.

This policy brief examines Turkey's current geopolitical placement.

This policy brief explains the complex reactions Central Asian leaders have to NATO efforts in Afghanistan.

This report provides a preliminary map of the global resource supply vulnerabilities from at-
risk countries.

At the heart of Washington’s military “pivot” toward Asia is a revolutionary new concept: AirSea Battle. What will be the future role of the Indian Ocean in the event of a Sino-U.S. conflict?

This policy brief explains how Central Asia may suffer as a result of the European financial  crisis.

This policy brief addresses China's aggressive pursuit of natural resources while expanding its transport networks and points out the need to better understand Chinese access diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific.

This policy brief examines Russia's foreign policy under Medvedev.

This policy paper looks at energy supply, illegal migration, investment and trade, and security issues between Libya and Europe.

This policy brief criticizes the EU's reaction to uprisings in the Arab world.

This policy brief examines relations between Central Asian governments and Moscow.

This policy brief argues for trilateral cooperation between the EU, the U.S., and Turkey.

This study addresses challenges arising from unprecedented global demand for land, energy, food, water, and minerals. 

This policy brief looks at Azerbaijan's global strategic importance.

This paper warns that the struggle for water is now likely to define many inter-country relationships in Asia.

This policy brief discusses the sources of a new wave of Russian nationalism.

This policy brief argues that based on its increasingly important role on the world stage, Turkey should become a member of the EU.

This policy brief examines current and possible future relations between Turkey, Armenia, and Azerbaijan.

This policy brief looks at the future of Turkish involvement in Afghanistan.

This policy brief examines the views of Central Asian countries toward Iran's nuclear program.

This policy brief examines the recent decision of the French Constitutional Court to invalidate legislation that would have criminalized denying that the Armenians experienced genocide in 1915.

This Brussels Forum paper is the winner of the Young Writers' competition.

This Brussels Forum paper says that the United States should not forfeit Europe for Asia.

The Afghanistan war represents NATO’s greatest international test since the Cold War.  However, without discrediting the efforts made by the ISAF mission’s EU member states, the EU has, in certain respects, punched below its weight in Afghanistan. European initiatives such as the EUPOL have proved inadequate. The EU must step up its efforts in Afghanistan to focus more on the country’s transformation into a stable and self-sufficient state by helping it develop its economy, improve its police force, ensure long-term security cooperation, and constructively engage the region, with a particular focus on Pakistan.

This Brussels Forum paper examines the implications of natural gas and oil discoveries in the Mediterranean.

This policy brief compares Russian and Turkish views of "Eurasia."

This Black Sea Trust-supported paper examines the sources and limitations of Turkey’s relations with Russia since 2000, as well as the implications of Turkey’s lack of a clear vision for the Black Sea region for the future of its bilateral relations with Russia and the other international, regional and local actors in the Black Sea region.

This policy brief explores Turkey's options in dealing with the uprising in Syria.

This paper analyzes the features of each of the three socio-political actors in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, and Libya.

In a new report, the Transatlantic Task Force on Trade and Investment calls for creation of a barrier-free transatlantic market as part of ambitious, realistic recommendations for a new U.S.-EU trade and in­vestment agenda to promote economic growth, jobs and economic develop­ment.

This study argues that Morocco should encourage policymakers in the United States and Europe to think more imaginatively about its role in the Atlantic and elsewhere.

This policy brief examines the outcomes of the 15th Ukraine-EU Summit, held in December 2011.

This brief looks at the recent evolution of Turkey's foreign policy.

This brief explores the history of relations between Turkey and Russia, and prospects for the future.

This brief examines the relationship between Iraqi and Turkish politics.

This policy brief outlines likely directions for Russia's foreign policy in the next presidential administration.

Eliciting cooperation from Beijing on Iran is challenging for Washington because China’s equities in Iran, views of the efficacy of sanctions, and prioritization of the Iranian nuclear issue on its foreign policy agenda are different from those of Washington. As Washington once again seeks support from Beijing for its efforts to pressure Iran, it is worthwhile to examine recent U.S.-China cooperation on the Iranian nuclear issue and why that cooperation occurred. 

This policy brief explains that Europe is demanding the Germans come to the rescue — only to find a country in search of purpose and strategy.

China’s potential involvement in the eurozone crisis has triggered a wave of speculation about the political, economic, and strategic implications of China “buying up” or “bailing out” Europe. But the reality has been less dramatic. China did not swing in behind the European Financial Stability Facility. There has been no sign of the EU offering major concessions to China in the hope that this will smooth the way for Chinese cash. The broader state of EU-China relations will depend significantly on how China and the EU deal with each other through a period that is not just an economic crisis for Europe but an existential one.

This policy brief looks at the tumultuous relations between Turkey and Uzbekistan.

This policy brief discusses the current limitations of cooperation between Turkey and the EU.

The two papers included in this report focus on the nexus between the domestic transformations in many of the Middle Eastern and North African countries and the evolution of the strategic outlook of the region.

This paper looks at the broader consequences of the deal between Georgia and Russia to allow Russia to join the WTO.

This policy brief encourages a strengthening of U.S.-Turkish relations....

In these times of historic change affecting the Arab world, the moment may be opportune for the Middle East and East Asia to upgrade their engagement, bringing to the fore models of evolution and achievement that may benefit the new political and social order bound to emerge in the aftermath of the uprisings. The Asian experience of negotiating native authenticity and a modernity originating from the West has itself the potential of resetting the debate affecting the Arab world today.

The political earthquake shaking the Middle East and North Africa will have as much significance for U.S., European, and Asian interests in the Middle East as did the fall of the Berlin Wall and the collapse of the Soviet Union.  What is the impact of the events of the Arab Awakening on Asian, European, and U.S. policy?

This policy brief asks if the relationship between Turkey and the EU bound to be marked by a high degree of alignment but only limited convergence....

This policy brief explores how Turkey will position itself between the United States and China while those states are in competition....

Turkey’s unresolved problem with the state’s Kurds undermines its credibility as a model for other regional societies. Moreover it unsettles Turkey’s relations with its neighbors, notably Syria, Iraq, and Iran....

This brief responds to a recent On Turkey brief by Ian O. Lesser, which had argued that Turkey’s “third wave” will be characterized by the search for strategic reassurance, mainly through Ankara’s greater reliance on Turkey’s traditional Western allies. Kardas rebuts that the quest for strategic autonomy of the past years still instructs Turkish leaders’ thinking on international affairs, and says this is unlikely to disappear....

In this Mediterranean Strategy Group paper, Emiliano Alessandri outlines the rapidly evolving strategic environment of the Mediterranean region,including new priorities and challenges for the transatlantic community.

This policy brief explores relations between Turkey and Azerbaijan, and their impact on Europe's energy supply.

The recent surge of democratic movements in the Arab World, including the January 25th protests that topled Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak's regime, opens new windows on the world of civil society and its role in asserting democracy. While these movements raise new questions for scholars of democratic movements and activists alike, they also share an inspiration in the democratic breakthroughs in Central and Eastern Europe that preceded them. Inspired by those who shaped the Arab Spring, the German Marshall Fund has published an Arabic translation of Reclaiming Democracy: Civil Society and Electoral Change in Central and Eastern Europe, by Pavol Demes, Joerg Forbrig and Robin Shepherd....

This policy paper examines Turkey's relations with countries in the Caucasus....

The five authors in this policy paper explain that rather than a black-and-white model of a pro-Western Muslim secular democracy, Turkey may offer a number of different models and ideas to inspire change in its southern neighborhood....

Given the remarkable speed and breadth of China’s rising power, and its enigmatic approach to several key international issues, successfully managing China’s rise will be essential to preserving the long-term health and success of the international system. The global commons (the high seas, air, space, and cyberspace) offer an excellent opportunity for the United States and Europe to bring a strategic element to efforts to manage China’s rise.

This policy brief examines Turkey's role as a Middle Eastern regional power....

This policy brief explains why Turkish public opinion has turned against the United States in recent years.

This collection of papers looks at Southern European policies toward the Mediterranean from a transatlantic point of view.

This policy brief offers possible reasons why the Turkish public is increasingly sympathetic to its Arab neighbors....

This policy brief analyzes the Turkish results from the 2011 Transatlantic Trendssurvey....

This policy brief asks if it is possible to suggest criteria that could help identify those who belong to a loosely defined “core of Europe.”...

This policy brief examines Turkey's economic and political interests in the Mediterranean region....

This policy brief argues that Turkish-Israeli relations are deteriorating to a level from which it may be difficult to improve them in the foreseeable future....

The 2011 edition of Transatlantic Trends paints a picture of a complex relationship between the United States and Europe and how they respond to global challenges....

This policy brief examines the economic fallout from the Arab Spring, particularly on the role of Western powers in the region....

Australia is at the forefront of the debate over how Western democracies should balance and manage their alliances with the United States, on the one hand, and their growing economic ties with China, on the other. There are multiple challenges facing the Australia-U.S. alliance flowing from the rise of China. How will Australian diplomatic, economic, and security dynamics challenge other Western democracies as they work to define their interests vis-à-vis the world’s current superpower and its ever-rising challenger?

Despite widespread acknowledgement that a long-term partnership between Pakistan and the European Union is desirable, neither Islamabad nor Brussels has invested enough in engaging one another. Although policy coordination remains a challenge, Europe has key assets that it can leverage, including its reputation for supporting civil society groups, development initiatives, and democratic institutions. As Pakistan struggles, the EU can become an important niche player.

The fourth meeting of the Trilateral Strategy Group was held in Istanbul, May 25-27, 2011, on the theme of Perspectives on Power and Prosperity...

This policy brief argues that Turkey now must prove it is able to transcend its long tradition of "democracy without democrats" both internally and externally.

This policy brief explains that the Turkish constitution-making process will provide an opportunity to see if the government party will lead an effort to establish a system characterized by extensive civil liberties for the citizens and a system of government characterized by checks and balances....

What roles should a rising China play in the world? They should include being, at the very least: 1) a provider of transnational values concerning economic growth, liberty, social justice, and environmental protection; 2) a strategic great power with the capacity to redefine the China-U.S. relationship; 3) a bearer of international responsibility in various functional areas, requiring a substantial contribution to the global political economy, security, and the environment; and 4) a courageous but prudent restrainer of the preponderant power, for the sake of world liberty and justice.

China often stresses that there are similarities between its new five year economic plan and the Europe 2020 strategy — both of which are focused on green, intelligent, and inclusive growth. The perceived parallels between the two programs can be usefully exploited in the EU-China dialogue both to address areas of contention and to find areas for cooperation.

Chinese direct investment in Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries is taking off, and flows to America and Europe are poised to grow substantially over the next decade. The change from one-way to two-way direct investment flows will transform U.S. and European economic relations with China in the years ahead and openness to Chinese FDI, and the implications thereof, will become an important topic on the transatlantic policy agenda.

This policy brief compares Ukraine's relations with the EU and Russia.

The Pakistan government’s inability to provide for the security and prosperity of its own people has led to questions about its sovereignty, whether in terms of its monopoly of violence, fiscal solvency, or human security. But rather than asking questions of the Pakistani government, Pakistanis are content with blaming Washington for the country’s ills. Pakistan can certainly do better by following India’s example of self-sufficient economic growth. Pakistan can only escape the leash of donors and manipulative outsiders by raising revenue, securing its territory, providing for its citizens, and becoming a responsible international actor.

This paper argues for reforms of the UN Security Council membership.

It may be tempting in light of China’s growing power and reach to imagine a world in which China is dominant. Although China’s policies of noninterference might seem appealing to many developing countries, its demands for obedience and its state-led growth will threaten the liberal capitalist order advanced by the West. China’s growth also masks its continuing vulnerability to economic shocks, social instability, and ethnic separatism. Internationally, China will see its ambitions constrained by rising powers along its periphery, the U.S. presence in Asia, and its support for failing states such as Pakistan and North Korea.

This policy brief examines Turkey's evolving reaction to events in the Middle East.

This brief summarizes discussions at the “EU, Turkish, and U.S. Responses to the Arab Spring: Exploring Synergies in a Transatlantic Context” conference in May 2011.

This paper argues that Australia will emerge as the United States' strongest ally in the Asia-Pacific region.

This policy brief outlines the implications of Syrian unrest on neighboring Turkey.

Despite at least two decades of reforms, the liberalization of India’s economy is incomplete. This is primarily a function of politics. Indian political leaders have few incentives to advance the reform agenda given India’s high growth rate, and instead prefer handouts in the form of welfare schemes and employment guarantees. While some advances are being made, future economic liberalization in India will likely be hesitant, episodic, and half-hearted.

Two decades after the end of the Cold War, Central Europe is believed to have entered a period which one prominent Washington politico privately called an era of “blessed boredom.” He was expressing the widely-held opinion that the region has successfully crossed the once-daunting threshold of political and economic reform and in fact, has completed the process of “returning to Europe.” Indeed, the countries that once threatened to devolve into a post-communist “grey zone of instability” have had a remarkably successful run.

This paper explores the changing relations between China and Europe over recent years.

This policy paper argues that the United States and Europe must work more closely together in order to not lose their place in the world order.

Pakistan’s political development since its independence — fluctuating between imperfect democracy and uncertain autocracy — can be attributed to several factors. Democracy suffered as a result of Pakistan’s colonial history, the process of Partition with India, and ethnic politics in the early years of the country’s independence. At the same time, truly autocratic forces have been held back by the resilience of Pakistan’s political parties, its civil society, and its judiciary. Yet there are reasons to be pessimistic about Pakistan’s future.

This policy brief argues for a new, more effective way for the EU and Turkey to talk about strategy that is not beholden to the current problems in the accession process.

This policy brief offers an American perspective on the evolving strategic environment in Europe’s neighborhood.

This brief recounts the major transformations in Turkey’s neighborhood policies over the last decade.

This Young Writers Award winning brief argues that the transatlantic alliance needs to draw on its tradition of institutional innovation to strengthen transatlantic competitiveness and define the economic rules of the game for the 21st century.

This Brussels Forum Brief examines the future of the EU's new European External Action Service.

Despite shared frustrations and interests and some tactical cooperation, Washington and Brussels lack a game plan for transatlantic relations with China. The United States and Europe have disagreed on the Chinese security challenge, currency manipulation, and current account and trade imbalances. But they share concerns about Chinese state capitalism, violations of intellectual property rights, a lack of reciprocity on foreign investment, and an absence of Chinese implementation of free trade principles. The impending designation of China as a market economy provides a window of opportunity to leverage a Chinese course correction.

This report presents the first systematic survey of the views of leaders in the European Union and the United States on the state, nature, and challenges of transatlantic relations.

This policy brief looks at the future of economic reform in the turbulent southern Mediterranean region.

This policy brief assesses the challenges facing the new European External Action Service.

Some might argue that Burma is a country where interests and values collide: the short-term commercial and energy interests in oil, gas, and gems versus the promotion of democratic values. However it is, in fact, in the long-term interests of both the West and the region to ensure Burma becomes a peaceful, stable country with a responsible, legitimate government.

This Brussels Forum Brief says that the arrival of new global powers presents the West with a dilemma: whether to prioritize players or principles in creating a new international architecture that contributes to the continuity and efficacy of international norms.

Radicalism has permeated the Pakistani society at large – including government institutions – and now represents the dominant worldview in the country. The social and educational changes advanced by the government of General Zia ul-Haq in the 1980s has severe implications for Pakistan’s domestic security and external relations today, and can only be reversed through a similar generational process involving educational reform and socio-economic development.

This policy brief examines economic relations between China and Mediterranean countries.

This policy brief examines the impacts of changes in the Middle East on Turkey's relations with the West.

This policy brief explores the role of Turkey in changes in Egypt and the Middle East.

This set of papers explores a number of inter-linked questions regarding Turkey's power in the Mediterranean region.

This policy paper examines the differences in state legitimacy between China and Western nations.

This brief examines how the once relatively close relations between Turkey and Israel have crumbled in recent years and what that means for the region.

This brief looks at the Turkish ruling party's apparent strategy to appeal to its conservative base.

This policy brief examines the fallout of the Wikileaks release on U.S.-Turkey relations.

This policy brief examines the domestic ramifications of the Wikileaks cable release in Turkey.

This policy brief discusses the resumption of the quiet negotiation process between Greece and Turkey regarding Cyprus.

In this latest of the Paralleli Brief series, the author outlines Turkey's economic ties in the eastern Mediterranean region.

In this policy brief, the author explains that the Lisbon NATO summit experience suggests that some aspects of Turkish foreign policy remain cautious and traditional, and the NATO connection still matters.

Two issues may help to provide a better grasp of the problem of whether Turkey will eventually decide to go it alone in world affairs: the recent reform of the Turkish Constitution and the evolution of Turkish foreign policy.

This policy brief examines the implications of economic reforms in Syria on its relationship with countries in the West.

Is the era of a unipolar world dominated by a single American superpower now finished, or will the United States continue to be the world’s most powerful country and global leader?  This paper will argue that rather than being contradictory, the two positions can at some level be reconciled.

Sustained high economic growth rates, averaging around 8 percent in the first decade of the 21st century, have made India one of the top economies in the world. With current GDP at over US$1 trillion and per capita income at over $1,200, India is now the world’s 11th largest economy. In purchasing power parity terms, India puts itself in the top five. The economic slowdown in the West and the prospect of China’s growth rate decelerating to single digits might well make India the fastest growing economy in the world in the not-too-distant future.

Shlomo Avineri takes a look at contemporary Israel in this paper written for the Halifax International Security Forum.

From 2006 to 2008, the leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan staked out an expansive vision for Japanese cooperation with fellow democracies in a geopolitical arc stretching from Southeast Asia to Central Europe. However, the ascent to power of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 2009 called into question the values-oriented approach that animated this concept – the “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” (AFP) – as an emerging component of Japanese grand strategy. 

This paper lays out the current reform debates being played out within Libya.

This policy brief examines the recent findings on Turkey in the Transatlantic Trends survey, which suggest that the attitudes of Turks deviate significantly from those of citizens of the United States and European Union.

The debate within the NATO alliance on nuclear issues is increasingly seen to be of direct relevance to Japan. In both NATO and the U.S.-Japan alliance, expanding consultations to include nonnuclear elements such as missile defense would strengthen existing relations. Additionally, by sharing their understanding of nuclear issues with one another, experts in the United States and its allied countries could help create a basis on which the credibility of extended deterrence can be maintained.

This paper explains that the policy process in Libya is complex and intensely personalized around the figure of the Libyan leader, even if it also relies on a structured consultation process as well. Overall, however, the constant and underlying theme since the 1990s has been regaining international acceptance. Relations with the United States are now dominant, in the wake of the renewal of diplomatic links after many years of Libyan isolation.

The financial crisis of 2008-09 has now placed at risk the liberal economic policies behind globalization. This book explores the future of globalization.

The Transatlantic Taskforce on Development traveled to two influential countries in Asia in May 2010 to engage in a meaningful dialogue with Chinese and Japanese government officials, academics, policymakers, and other development stakeholders on the topics of food security and development. This document summarizes the activities on the trip.

This paper seeks to understand the vital importance of peace-building processes, which provide a new start for many fragile and conflict-ridden African states, and the need for coherent donor engagement strategies, which would help effectively address pressing issues in these states.

This paper analyzes maritime security and naval cooperation in the Mediterranean, examining the relevance and capabilities of both NATO and the EU.

The debate on the course of Turkish foreign policy heated up again in the wake of the Gaza flotilla catastrophe and Turkey’s no vote at the UN Security Council on sanctions against Iran.

In recent years Turkey has made foreign policy choices that have been at odds with the preferences of some of its major partners, such as the United States, the EU, and Israel, and it has begun to pursue a more activist and proactive foreign policy atypical from earlier times.

The coincidence of the occurrence of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico and the publication of President Obama’s first National Security Strategy provide an opportunity to make energy and the environment the basis of an integrated 21st-century transatlantic and international diplomacy

This paper explores recent economic and political developments in Morocco, Algeria, Libya, and Tunisia and the mechanisms by which the transatlantic community has sought to channel social, political, and economic change in them — for both good and ill.

The U.S. government must have a global, unified, straightforward, powerful, and measurable development assistance strategy to attain the elusive “Grand Bargain” among stakeholders.

Prospects for European direct investments in Mediterranean countries and for Euro-Mediterranean trade flows are favorable. However, private actors playing the key role in promoting Mediterranean economic integration, while political initiatives languish.

Domestic constitutional and market reforms would strengthen Japan’s hand abroad, reinforcing Japanese competitiveness in a globalized world.  At the same time, its leaders may find that expanding Japan’s economic, diplomatic, and strategic horizons can help catalyze domestic renewal.

Gulf Cooperation Council countries’ political and economic ties with the Arab Mediterranean Countries and Turkey have strongly increased in the last decade. This study reveals that the GCC countries’ growing presence in the AMCs has had positive repercussions for the relevant NATO and EU cooperation frameworks.

Important institutional building blocks for further enlargement of NATO and the European Union led by the EU are being put into place and a new narrative can and should be framed around the theme of "Completing Europe."

After years of clear distinctions between friend and foe during the Cold War, commercial partners of the United States and Europe now offer attractive trade opportunities and security risks at the same time. High technology trade with China presents the transatlantic partners with one such dilemma, but competing interests and different threat perceptions between — and within — the United States and Europe with regards to China also raise the possibility of future transatlantic disputes. Under these circumstances, the United States and Europe must work together to forge a concerted approach to dual-use technological transfers.

The striking changes in Turkish society and policy make for an uneasy relationship between Ankara and its transatlantic partners. The emerging Turkish-Western relationship will be a la carte and driven by national interests rather than geopolitics and identity.

Based on the traditional framework of Turkish foreign policy, one would have expected it to encourage Iran to comply with the requirements of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), while trying to persuade the United States and other members of the UN Security Council that diplomatic means should be given continued priority.

How to deal with Belarus, along with the question of whether to engage or seek to isolate the regime of Aleksandr Lukashenka has been a bone of contention in policy debates across the Atlantic. Sabine Fischer and Pavol Demes take different sides of the debate in this On Wider Europe series.

Reflecting on the recent discussion within GMF's Trilateral Strategy Group, GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow, Dr. Ian Lesser discusses the points of convergence and divergence among Turkey, the United States, and Europe in their approaches to regional flashpoints and strategies. Debate in this multi-year series of meetings reflects some important differences in perceptions of risk and preferred responses. Iran and Russia will continue to be key tests.Looking ahead, perspectives on the West and changing power balances on a global basis are set to become even more central to the future of trilateral relations.

The main focus of the January Trilateral Strategy Group meeting was to confront the expectations of participants that "Western" views could be defined on a number of issues, with what seems to be a more complex reality; despite a shared preference for a continued unity of the West in order to solve these problems and, more generally, to provide an anchor of stability to the international system, it is apparent that policymakers and governments tend to think and act less "Western" than ever before.

Against this backdrop of increasing focus on the possible proliferation of WMDs, Turkey’s own policies in the area of nonproliferation as a NATO member, as a neighbor of Iran, and as a country located in a region prone to proliferation, have started to generate interest. Indeed what role can be ascribed to nonproliferation concerns in Turkish foreign policy?

The Commission on the Black Sea's final report provides a set of eight recommendations each of which contains the seeds of more detailed proposals and frameworks aimed at ensuring that the Black Sea region becomes one of peace, security, stability, sustainable development, innovation, and prosperity, hence a trustworthy, reliable and stable neighbour of Europe.

Next month’s expected visit of Massoud Barzani, president of the Kurdistan Regional Government, to Turkey is a first step ending hostility between Ankara and the Kurdish leadership and ending Turkey’s long-time Kurdish problem.

This paper describes the rise of the periphery elite and sheds light on the fears of the classical centrist elite. It depicts the structural deficits of the Turkish political system that obstruct a smooth transition from the dominance of the classical elite to political competition in a democracy and a fair distribution of power in the country.

The consensus behind the enlargement of the European Union and NATO is crumbling. The strategic paradigm that guided enlargement to Central and Eastern Europe since the mid 1990s no longer fits today's circumstances. Absent a new narrative and a revised strategy, the historic window for enlarging core Western institutions to new democracies is likely to close. To some degree, the West is of course a victim of its own success. The EU and NATO are also struggling with "enlargement fatigue."

The divide in India's foreign policy between globalization and insularity is accentuated by its democratic politics, with Lord Curzon's expansionistic vision of India's international presence in competition with the inward-looking non-alignment associated with Nehru. While there is a broad consensus on certain issues, the contest between these two visions will continue to define how India sees its place in the world.

The number of new states seeking some combination of economic, energy, and security gains in the Mediterranean is increasing. Some have historical ties with the Mediterranean region and the Maghreb and are trying to build or rebuild economic and security ties. Others probably see the Mediterranean region through both short- and longer-term filters that reveal more immediate economic interests but that eventually converge with a larger strategic plan. Still others see purely economic benefits, and a few see purely security benefits.

Considering persistent U.S.-Turkish differences over Iran, the participation by the Turkish Prime Minister in last week's Nuclear Security Summit in Washington was viewed as good news. However, the summit has not bridged the gap in strategy toward Iran's nuclear ambitions.

GMF author Joseph R. Wood explains why transatlantic attitudes toward work and leisure are not that different after all. He explores intellectual history to find out which attitudes shape policy choices.

GMF author Constanze Stelzenmüller analyzes Obama and Europe, one year later. She assesses lukewarm European responses and asks if the honeymoon is over. In order to prevent deterioration of the transatlantic relationship, she argues, Europe must become a more active partner.

Transatlantic Academy authors Kemal Kirisci, Nathalie Tocci, and Joshua Walker explore Turkey’s transatlantic value in the Middle East. They contend that Turkey is not “lost,” but can play a positive role in the region as long as it conducts a norm-based foreign policy based on continuing democratization.

The West has a chance to shape emerging Asia in ways that enlarge its community of values and interests as well as strengthen pluralism in the world’s most dynamic region, the Indo-Pacific.

The authors ask if the Medvedev Proposal for a new European security structure is the right approach to include Russia and build a safer Europe. But they come to different conclusions. An opportunity to create a more effective security architecture should not be passed up, argues Robert Legvold, while GMF-authors David J. Kramer and Daniel P. Fata claim that the proposal is a non-starter.

As countries such as Brazil and South Africa emerge as serious players on the international stage, Ian O. Lesser contends that a strategy for the other half of the Atlantic rim is needed. Policy planners need to think in terms of a “wider Atlanticism” if the United States and Europe are to maintain a central role in shaping the transatlantic agenda of the future.

The question of uranium enrichment lies at the core of the nuclear standoff with Iran. As Turkey strives to create a role for itself in the settlement of this dispute between Iran and the international community, it is doubtful Turkish policymakers are aware of the real political opportunity the crisis has created.

This month's vote by the Committee on Foreign Affairs in the U.S. House of Representatives condemning the mass slaughter of Ottoman Armenians during WWI as "genocide" is being cast as the final blow to Turkish-Armenian reconciliation. The bill might have been quashed had the parliament in Turkey ratified a set of protocols that would have established diplomatic ties and re-opened the border between Turkey and Armenia.

Valladão's analysis explores the Latin American experience in building regional cooperation, and offers possible lessons for integration efforts in North Africa.

A quarrel has erupted within the Turkish judiciary over an investigation into Operation Sledgehammer- an alleged plot by some elements in the military to take over the government. Despite complaints of improprieties committed in the process of arresting people and searching homes, the government has decided to back the investigation.

Don't jump to simple conclusions about Turkish-Israeli relations. The periodic crises between Turkey and Israel are more a function of structural causes and the changing strategic environment in the region than the proclivities of the principal actors. In the end, all valiant efforts for managing relations may prove insufficient to prevent future crises from erupting.

Could the emergence of a nuclear Iran be accommodated comfortably in the Turkish security scene? Or would it spell a fundamental and negative transformation of the strategic environment? The answer to this question should inform the Turkish calculus as the international community grapples with the challenge of a near-nuclear Iran.

Just as the United States has gone back-and-forth on the strategic importance of Japan, Tokyo has debated the nature of its role in the international system. The resulting oscillation by both states necessitates a careful examination of Japan’s importance. The U.S.-Japan security alliance enables strategic stability in Asia, and Japan remains both a potent economic force and a democratic anchor in the region. Both the United States and its European allies must consequently step up strategic dialogue and cooperation with Japan.

How can the United States and its transatlantic allies overcome the primary security dilemma of the 21st century, that of sustaining an economic system that will fuel the rise of China, a power whose growing clout threatens to challenge Western control over the international system? This paper explores solutions to overcoming this quandary. In "Power Shift: How the West Can Adapt and Thrive in an Asian Century," Tellis argues that the answer lies in a combination of further economic enmeshment fueled by deepening globalization, the maintenance of Western military superiority, and a realistic and multifaceted engagement of China.

This brief, the first in a series on the Mediterranean and the economic crisis, explores the impact of the global pressures on key countries in North Africa and the Eastern Mediterranean, including Israel and Turkey. The analysis suggests that most countries in the region are weathering the financial aspects of the crisis reasonably well, helped in some cases by a sharp recovery in energy prices.

With expectations disappointed among Ukrainians, and impatience widespread in the West, it may be tempting to disregard the January 17, 2010 presidential election as just another in an endless series of polls that have done little to advance Ukraine in recent years. That verdict, however, would be as premature as it would be irresponsible.

Turkey had two options: Wage war and send the military across the border to northern Iraq, where the PKK made the Kandil mountain range their headquarters, or engage politically with Iraqi Kurds and seek serious reform at home.

The current reviews of space policy in Europe and the United States offer an opportunity to advance human exploration as well as unmanned science missions. But to do so, President Obama and his European colleagues must chart a new route.

On January 17, 2010, Ukrainian voters will go to the polls to choose their next president. Nobody knows who the winner will be — and that reflects very well on Ukraine's democratic development. Most observers expect that next month's election, while not flawless, will continue a trend in Ukraine of "free and fair" elections. This is the first in a GMF series, Focus on Ukraine. The set of briefs will discuss Ukraine before, during, and after the 2010 presidential election.

GMF Executive Vice President Karen Donfried testified Tuesday, December 15, before the Subcommittee on Europe of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs. Her testimony addressed the Lisbon Treaty and the implications on transatlantic relations.

In early December, Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan made an official visit to Washington to meet with President Obama. Both sides are likely to have come away convinced that some potentially difficult issues have been managed. Yet, the visit did little to bridge substantial differences in perception and approach on key issues, above all, Iran, the Palestinian issue, and the complex of disputes in the Caucasus. Policymakers and observers on both sides are left with a list of unresolved open questions that could shape the course of the new model partnership in the near to medium term.

After eight years of the Bush presidency, when the United States was perceived as disdainful of allies and excessively aggressive toward challengers, U.S. President Barack Obama promised a change in course. This appears to involve closer consultation with partners and greater engagement with adversaries. But despite Obama's optimistic rhetoric, adhering to these two strategies requires his administration to perform a difficult balancing act.

This paper explored the sources of and patterns associated with a growing propensity on the part of some Turks to "confront the past." It suggested that in so doing, they are seeking torewrite national identity, and by extension, foreign policy. Broadly, they challenge three aspects of the national project as it was conceived in the 1920s-the unitary pillar of national identity, the strict interpretation of secularism, and the paradoxically Western yet anti-Western anchor of identity and policy. When challengers' agendas converge they may form ad hoc coalitions, as appears to be the case with liberal and moderate Islamists' readings ofthe Armenian question and neo-Ottomanism.

Overtures toward Tehran, Damascus, Baghdad, the Kurdish regional government, and Turkey's own Kurds have contributed to the perception of a "Turkish moment," in which new ground is being broken on virtually a daily basis. Turkey's leadership seems unconcerned by the potential risks of dilution and overstretch, and so far, there has been little to check Ankara's momentum.

China's rise is one of the most significant geopolitical events in modern history, with important ramifications for U.S. interests, regional power balances, and the international order. As the Obama administration confronts a broad set of worldwide challenges, questions remain as to how the United States should engage China amidst uncertainty about its long-term intentions and how to balance this important relationship against concerns regarding China's behavior in the international community.

September saw a major U.S. policy shift on missile defense in Europe, revelations of a previously undisclosed Iranian nuclear site, threats of sanctions against Iran, and preparations for a new discussion between Iran and the West. But in the midst of so much apparent change, many facts remained constant. Unfortunately, the two winners seem to be Iran and its sometime-supporter, Russia.

Public discussions of the initialed protocols between Turkey and Armenia that were released on the night of August 31 are ongoing in both countries. The protocols can be welcomed as the basis for a more informed discussion. However, aspects of the protocols which have intentionally been left open to interpretation raise suspicions on both sides.

The relationship between the transatlantic partners and Japan has been internationally considered as being of paramount importance in the past. Now, however, the relationship between the transatlantic community and Japan has lost precedence due to a greater focus on a rising India and China. The G7/8 has made way for the G20.

The Obama administration's decision to reconfigure its missile defense plans in Europe will have significant implications for Turkey and its alliance relationships. This will cast a spotlight on Turkey's policy toward Iran's nuclear ambitions, and looming decisions on sanctions and the possible use of force.

A year ago, a World Cup qualifying match between Turkey and Armenia signaled a thaw in relations between the traditionally hostile neighbors. However, Armenia and Turkey have conflicting interests in Azerbaijan that have brought rapprochement between the two countries to a stand still, making the prospects of peace that much more unlikely.

The Turkey-EU relationship is at another critical juncture. This paper examines two historical periods of Turkey-EU relationship, and concludes by looking at the implications of the situation in Cyprus today for the Turkey-EU relationship in a changing international context.

Evidence suggests an accelerating trend toward renationalization of policy in key domains in Europe. This trend presents both dangers and opportunities for Europe and the United States. The return of constructive nationalism, among nations with well-defined rules of cooperation, might paradoxically energize Europe in ways that Brussels has not been able to achieve.

Afghanistan currently represents one of the main challenges of transatlantic cooperation in support of peace, security, and economic growth in fragile states. Results so far have been mixed, and arguably become worse. Leaders in the United States and Europe recognize that a policy shift is required, but change is slow to materialize. This brief identifies ten concrete ways to improve the ef­ficiency of international involvement in Afghanistan.

GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Dr. Ian O. Lesser offers his summary and reflections on the debate from the Trilateral Strategy Group meeting in Istanbul, June 4-6, 2009. His report underscores the potentially far-reaching social, political, and geopolitical consequences of the global crisis. Turkey's troubled EU candidacy may be particularly vulnerable, against a backdrop of declining prosperity and confidence in Europe. But the crisis also raises larger questions about power and competitiveness, and offers opportunities to rethink longstanding approaches to Turkey in a transatlantic context.

Twenty years after the end of the Cold War, Central and Eastern Europe is no longer at the heart of American foreign policy. To some degree, the relationship between the United States and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe has become a victim of its own success.

Biden's trip to Kyiv and Tbilisi is an opportunity to demonstrate that Washington will not pursue its reset in relations with Russia at the expense of Russia's neighbors nor will it pursue relations with these neighbors through a Russian prism.

Turkey recently passed an important threshold in the great power shift from the military to civilian authorities that started at the beginning of the decade. Rooted in Turkey's social and political transformation, but strongly aided and secured by the EU accession process, this power shift reconfigures the politics of the republic. Whether this deepening civilianization will lead, as expected, to a rule based democratic consolidation and finally finish the "second transition" from democratic government to democratic regime remains to be seen.

State weakness that enables terrorists to find sanctuary in Pakistan and Afghanistan poses a direct danger to Europeans and Americans. The strategic challenge for the U.S. and its European allies is sustaining a common commitment to helping the Afghan and Pakistani governments develop the institutional capability to secure their territories. It would be dangerous to walk away from our commitment to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The only viable exit strategy for the West is a victory strategy.

In July, President Obama will meet Russian President Medvedev for the second time to hear the results of the negotiations for an agreement to replace the START treaty, which is set to expire this year. Using Cold War means, arms control, to cope with post-Cold War problems allows Russia to divert attention from the real problems we face and claim superpower-like prestige for which it longs.

This piece analyses how the implications of the process that started with the "Five Days War" between Russia and Georgia led Turkey to develop an opening toward Armenia, which would take Turkey to its initial position after a 360 degrees turn.

In his April visit to Turkey, President Barack Obama used the term "model partnership" to describe U.S.-Turkish relations. This terminology can be given content when partners contribute to managing grand strategic challenges-issues central to the national interests of each side. Three "meta" issues-Russia, Europe, and Iran-will pose key tests for U.S.-Turkish cooperation over the next few years.

Before 1989, the practical definition of success for countries under the Soviet yoke was straightforward: an end to communism and foreign domination. After 1989, success became securing the political freedom and prosperity that they had missed during their exile from European civilization. As Joseph R. Wood describes in this brief, the countries of Central Europe must now lead the memorialization of the crimes of the communist era, remedy the European Union's democratic deficit, and reduce Eurovision and contemteporary Hollywood to forgotten footnotes in western creative history. 

President Barack Obama's first meeting with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev brought a halt, at least temporarily, to the deterioration in bilateral relations between Russia and the United States. Next month Obama will visit Moscow, seeking to further his administration's goal of resetting and improving relations with Russia. This brief argues that the current Russian leadership does not, for the most part, share American interests, threat perceptions, or values and that as long as that is the case, extensive cooperation and significantly improved relations will be difficult to achieve.

Efforts toward normalization between Turkey and Armenia in April 2009 have brought to light ongoing tensions in Turkish-Azerbaijani relations. Though united by language and ethnicity, the potential for the realization of "one nation, two states" has brought forth resentments between the two countries. This brief addresses factors that contribute to questions including: What substantiates the Turkey-Azerbaijan relationship? And what is the rationale of this bond?

Following Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's recent cabinet appointments, Bülent Arýnç will serve as deputy prime minister and Ahmet Davutoglu as foreign minister. This brief discusses a method for looking at Turkey's policies and how the country's goals may line up with those of its allies, including the United States.

A review of Paul Hockenos' Joschka Fischer and the Making of the Berlin Republic: An Alternative History of Postwar Germany.

In the months leading up to April 2009, Turkey's concern that the events of 1915 would be termed "genocide" dominated speculation as to when and how Turkey would normalize relations with Armenia. A resolution to the conflict will be a necessary precondition in the implementation of a roadmap in normalizing relations between Turkey and Armenia.

GMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Dr. Ian O. Lesser testified on May 14 before the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Foreign Affairs. He outlined the new dynamics and next steps in U.S.-Turkish relations. Lesser's testimony is available for download below.

The German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF), in cooperation with the International Affairs Institute (IAI) of Rome, held the second seminar of the Mediterranean Strategy Group in Genoa on May 10-12 2009 under the title "Is Regional Cooperation in the Maghreb Possible? Implications for the Region and External Actors." The meeting is part of a multi-year project of dialogue and analysis exploring critical Mediterranean issues in a transatlantic context.

In his speech in Prague, Czech Republic, on April 5, 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama outlined his ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons.  These proposals stand in almost complete reversal to the Bush administration's stance on nuclear issues. Europeans have in general been frustrated by the lack of interest in arms control shown by the previous administration. The important fact in the aftermath of the Prague speech is that the U.S. president has presented U.S. allies with a number of specific measures that serve both sides' interests and together provide a more viable view of the balance to be achieved between nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. They should concentrate their energy on making this agenda happen and transforming it into viable policy.

As the Obama administration defines its foreign policy agenda, voices around the world caution that the West cannot "export" democracy and should adapt more "modest" foreign policies. Foreign policy debates suggest that the lessons learned from the postcommunist world since 1989 must be reinforced and learned anew.

The visit of U.S. president, Barack Obama, to Turkey so early in his administration is significant. Just as significant is the fact that the visit came as part of high-profile European tour. Key topics on the bilateral agenda may have been Middle Eastern or Eurasian, but the policy dialogue in Ankara and Istanbul was a dialogue with a transatlantic partner.

The lastest GMF information on past events, publications, policy papers along with recent podcasts and blogs.

Elections are always a serious business in Turkey and the local elections that just took place were no exception. The electorate gave a stern warning to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) and notably Prime Minister Erdogan, who ran an energetic but harsh, angry, and polarizing campaign. In light of the election results, the question before Turkey is what course the AKP will take, or to be more precise, how the Prime Minister will interpret the results and how he will respond.

Last July, more than 200,000 people flocked to a public park in Berlin to hear Barack Obama, then the Democratic candidate for president of the United States, deliver a speech calling for renewed transatlantic partnership and cooperation. Now that Obama is president, will Germany respond to the call and join the United States as a key European partner in addressing global challenges and threats?

Despite the dramatic walkout by Turkey’s prime minister from the World Economic Forum at Davos, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton recently made the announcement that President Barack Obama will visit the country next month. As Turkey's international profile rises as it embraces its role as a regional peacemaker, are Turkish-American relations entering a "golden era"?

Niels Annen and Joseph Wood offer two perspectives to this question in Annen's "Fearing a Weak, Embracing a Strong Russia: There is no alternative to engagement with Moscow" and Wood's "Worldview Matters: The Kremlin's behavior limits the scope of Western engagement."

In "The European Question, Revisited: The vision of a continent whole and free is unfulfilled" by Robert Hutchings and "The German Question, Revisited: Why unification in 1990 created peace in Europe - and previous attempts did not" by Robert Leicht, the authors offer two perspectives on the fall of the wall, 20 years later.

The economic crisis continues to wreak havoc globally, and it is becoming increasingly clear that the poor will suffer disproportionally. Development efforts will likely lose momentum due to growing protectionism or budgetary constraints. As global leaders are seeking to steer their countries toward recovery, they are reexamining the underlying institutions and policies behind the global economy.

The 111th Congress must develop a long-term agenda to manage rapid change in Asia. This will require conceptual adjustment, energetic and creative U.S. leadership, and international commitment. Congress can play a critical role in promoting policies that allow the U.S. to shape and lead an emerging Pacific century, including strengthening relations with core allies, reshaping international institutions to ensure that China and India assume major-power obligations as well as rights, and intensifying engagement in Southeast Asia with stern commitment to open markets, alliances with democracies, and multilateralism.

The Ukranian-Russian gas stand-off caused a two-week interruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe that left countries like Greece, Bulgaria, and Slovakia in the cold during a strong winter and revealed again how vulnerable the European Union is in its gas supplies from Russia. Jörg Himmelreich suggests four hard decisions that must be made by the EU. Europe needs to address the varying dependencies on Russian gas within member states, the lack of interconnectivity within the market, discuss the need for a European common external energy policy, and establish of a European energy agency.

Despite the theatrics and the surge of anti-Israeli and anti-Semitic sentiment in Turkey, the government's positions suggest that Turkey still sees a role for itself in Middle East peacemaking, wants Israel to be more concerned about regional instability, and wishes to work with the United States if and when the new administration re-engages with the region.

The dramatic walkout by Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Turkey’s prime minister, from the World Economic Forum at Davos during a debate with the Israeli president has raised questions about Turkey’s relations with the West and its role in the Middle East. Was his outburst simply rhetoric, or does it signify Turkey’s shift away from the West?

The Transatlantic Taskforce on Development, a group comprising 24 North American and European leaders in development, released a report urging renewed leadership and partnerships in global development to political leaders on both sides of the Atlantic.

In mid January, Dr. Lesser visited Turkey at the height of the Gaza crisis, with Turks captivated by the ongoing Ergenekon investigation, and on the eve of Barack Obama's inauguration. His discussions revealed deepening concerns, not just about the obvious effects of the global economic crisis, but also about the basic trajectory of Turkish society, governance, and foreign policy.

Is Turkey’s unusually harsh response, both official and public, to Israel’s assault against Hamas in Gaza merely a reaction to Israel’s policies? Or does it mirror latent anti-Semitism in Turkish society? These questions are increasingly being raised, especially among Jewish-American groups who are among Turkey’s firmest friends in Washington.

Whether or not Turkey is turning its back on the West is a frequently asked question and a common refrain, particularly after Turkey's reaction to Israel's assault against Hamas in Gaza. Turkey remains strategically Western-oriented and in fact the ongoing Ergenekon investigation reaffirms its Atlanticist credentials. What Turkey's Western allies must do is have a self-critical look at their record and then ask themselves whether the strategic "Westernness" of Turkey is enough. How Turkey's Western partners deal with these issues and whether they will spend the necessary time and energy to manage their relationships with Turkey may have as much, if not more, of an impact on how Turkey ultimately develops.

The enthusiasm in Europe for the U.S. election of Barack Obama has raised hopes for progress on a range of issues on the transatlantic agenda, among the most pressing of which is stabilization and reconstruction in Afghanistan. Yet it remains uncertain whether Obama’s personal popularity can or will translate into additional contributions from Europeans, who have deep reservations about the use of force. Public opinion data suggests that the new U.S. administration should pursue a new diplomacy that builds on European support for a range of non-combat missions.

The objective of this brief is to help trigger a badly needed reassessment by the new U.S. administration of what has gone wrong in the way the aid effort has been conducted in Afghanistan. It explains that in a context of inadequate Afghan leadership, the lack of serious coordination and strategic planning among key donors in Afghanistan has seriously undermined aid effectiveness.

In the Turkish-Armenian relationship, history is being used as a political weapon to settle scores. Turkey has shown great progress on the path toward reconciliation, but there are two more steps the Turkish government could take to warm the relationship once and for all.

Two roads diverge in the South Caucasus and the newly elected U.S. administration can take either one. On the one hand it can support steps for cooperation and can mark the very first example of the new world order by permanently ignoring the signals of domestic politics; or on the other hand it can prioritize domestic political pressures, thus contributing to fragility and instability in the region.

Amid talk of a new "Bretton Woods," leaders of advanced and emerging economies met for the first time in November 2008 to discuss the global financial crisis. The crisis has clearly demonstrated the potential weaknesses of the existing financial and regulatory architecture. Capital crosses borders instantaneously and virtually seamlessly, but it is national bodies that are tasked with ensuring the financial system's stability. International cooperation is required.

It is now apparent that the global economy is headed for a deep and prolonged crisis, with potentially dramatic consequences for emerging as well as developed markets. Turkey is in no sense decoupled from the effects of this global turmoil. Over the next few years, economic stress could have a dramatic effect on Turkey's internal and external scene, including regional security and the prospects for Turkish relations with the European Union and the United States.

Geopolitical realities seem to have once more elevated Turkey's importance in American foreign policy decisions. In the past, Turkey's strategic importance and America's reliance on it had an inverse relationship to the deepening of Turkish democracy.

It's no secret that Europeans won't miss President Bush when he hands over the presidency to President-elect Barack Obama in January 2009. Because of the extremely unpopular, U.S.-led war in Iraq, the past eight years in transatlantic partnership have been tenuous, and the general impression is that the years following this administration can only improve - or will they?

When Turkey's President Abdullah Gül took the plunge on September 6 and became the first ever Turkish leader to set foot in Armenia, few were immune to the significance of the moment. Even Turkey's determinedly frosty diplomats began to thaw as they observed their president sitting next to his Armenian counterpart Serzh Sargsyan at the World Cup pre-qualifier football match pitting Turkey against Armenia.

Many of the developments that shake the world happen around Turkey, most notably Iraq, Iran, and Georgia. Both the Turkish state and nation feel the effects of political and military developments in the regions surrounding the country and the importance of the transatlantic alliance will be further highlighted through Turkey. America and the European Union would be well advised to treat Turkey as a valued member of the alliance and communicate to the Turkish public their intentions and policies in a more direct and constructive fashion.

The Transatlantic Trends Key Findings Report summarizes the Turkish story in 2008. Recent conversations about the results in Ankara and Istanbul suggest some intriguing observations and open questions. The key divide in the Turkish debate is between those who remain attached to the active and "balanced" AKP foreign policy and those who wish to set more deliberate priorities, looking east or west. Many in Europe are weighing the Turkish case in light of past enlargement experience, with a sense that process and momentum are likely to outweigh public reservations. As almost half of Turkish respondents favored a unilateral approach to international issues, it is worth asking whether Turkish perspectives are not closer to those most often ascribed to Washington.

Last month, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad paid a working visit to Turkey. The fact that the Iranian President was hosted by the Turkish President Abdullah Gül is a sign of Ankara's willingness to become a more active player in the region. In the past few months, Turkish diplomacy scored a few visible successes in the Middle East. Ankara played an instrumental role in bringing about an end to the factional strife in Lebanon. The policy on Syria also produced tangible results.

The Russian invasion of Georgia is a stark reminder of the unsettled nature of the Turkish geopolitical scene. By all indications, the crisis in Georgia is unlikely to end anytime soon. Even if Russian forces withdraw to negotiated positions, there is every prospect for a sustained Russian political and security presence in the country. Under these conditions, Ankara will once again face Russian power directly on its borders. In the near-term, Turkey will face difficult policy choices in reconciling the country's Russian and Western interests. Even more difficult dilemmas are on the horizon as a more competitive relationship with Russia looms, and NATO is compelled to rethink its own strategy and posture.

As the only NATO member to border the Caucasus. Turkey control the Bosporus and Dardanelles, through which Russia and other Black Sea countries conduct most of their trade. The conflict between Georgia and Russia offers Turkey a unique opportunity to bolster its regional clout, to check Russian and Iranian influence, and to help secure the flow of Western-bound oil and natural gas from former Soviet Central Asia and Azerbaijan. Will Turkey's leaders rise to the occasion?

As the dust begins to settle in the aftermath of the constitutional court's surprise decision not to ban the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP), the most pressing question in the Turkish capital, Ankara, is what impact it will have on the country's prime minister, Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

The decision by Turkey's constitutional court to warn and sanction, but not close the Justice and Development Party (AKP), offers an opportunity to Turks and Turkey's international partners. After almost a year of distraction and disarray, Ankara may now be able to focus on the most pressing problems facing the country. Europe and the United States may now be able to treat Turkey as a "normal" country again. Much will depend on whether the court's decision ushers in a period of moderation or renewed polarization, and whether the AKP government uses its renewed freedom of action to think strategically about external policy.

The transatlantic partnership over the past eight years has been under constant strain, creating an atmosphere of disappointment and distrust on both sides of the Atlantic. This brief examines the transatlantic economic partnership on trade and investment and the prospects of whether or not that relationship will continue to flourish under a new U.S. administration in 2009 or whether there will be a new tide of protectionism.

As ministers gather around the WTO negotiating table the week of July 21 in Geneva, there are troubling questions about whether the deal that is at hand is really worth doing and whether it is even possible to conclude an agreement at present, given the political constraints-especially those associated with a U.S. presidential election year.

A new fiscal year has begun for the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and the Balkan Trust for Democracy (BTD) — it is the time when we reflect on our past year's work, and I am proud to share our accomplishments with you now. GMF held two major events in March and April this year, Brussels Forum and the Bucharest Conference, where BTD staff participated as part of the GMF team effort to organize these high-level meetings.

April 2009 will mark the 10th anniversary of the entry of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic into NATO. The journey of these and other former Warsaw Pact countries to the EU and NATO is one of the most inspiring transformations in modern history. Lessons from these remarkable achievements are relevant to the U.S. foreign policy debate in three critical areas.

The last several years have seen a deterioration in the situation, a growing tension level in the conflict zone and an increased danger of renewed conflict in Abkhazia. At stake is not only Abkhazia or Georgia, but the rules of the game in European security.

The American presence in the Mediterranean is longstanding, but despite 200 years of engagement in the region, the American perspective on the Mediterranean remains distinctive and diffused.

As Turkey’s Constitutional Court prepares to act on the closure case pending against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turks across the ideological spectrum are watching and waiting. Predictions and preferences abound; active responses are limited. Caution and inertia appear to be the order of the day, even for those most exposed to the consequences of political and economic turmoil.

The European Union and the United States have dynamic services markets highly integrated through deep trade and investment ties. Differences in regulatory approaches and philosophies occasionally cause transatlantic disagreement regarding how each should respond to specific challenges or market needs. This is particularly true in services, which tend to be more highly regulated than manufacturing industries.

Edited by Robin Shepherd of Chatham House and released in advance of the Bucharest Conference and ahead of the official NATO Summit, the Bucharest Conference Papers are written by independent authors on the topics of NATO's mission in Afghanistan; NATO enlargement; global cyber defense and NATO; and NATO's relationship with Russia.

As the world continues to be intrigued by the U.S. electoral process, getting the American message out to its foreign audiences in a credible manner will be one of the most important agenda items and the toughest challenges for the new U.S. administration in January 2009. With a pioneering foreign and domestic policy and a strong diplomatic service, the United States is uniquely positioned to take on this public diplomacy challenge.

Ivan Vejvoda, executive director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, testified before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding Kosovo and the Balkans.

Following several years of tension between Europe and the United States, policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic have rediscovered pragmatism. Apparently irreconcilable differences of values are giving way to new forms of practical cooperation. However, the new transatlantic relationship differs from the old one in some very important ways. New issues that involve access to various forms of security-sensitive economic information are becoming increasingly prominent. These issues, however, do not fit neatly into the traditional boxes of the transatlantic relationship.

The author of this paper argues that Russia’s newfound taste for confrontation with the West is not an emotional overreaction or theatrical grandstanding – it is a strategic choice. The Kremlin’s new foreign policy is not circumstantial in nature. It is the expression of a new foreign policy consensus within the Russian elite and the Russian society at large. The author analyzes what the West can do to allow the coexistence of a post-modern European Union and a post-imperial Russia.

Managing expectations for change may be the foremost task for policymakers in the coming administration. European media coverage of the U.S. election has at times reflected a fascination with various candidates, leading one observer to declare, “Germany’s got a crush on Obama.” This paper grounds these hopes and fears by analyzing the public opinion data of Transatlantic Trends, an annual survey of foreign policy attitudes in the United States and Europe conducted by the German Marshall Fund of the United States and its partners since 2002.

In this paper, the Iranian revolution of 1979 is compared to the French revolution of 1789 in its destabilizing effects—and in the need it created for a new balance of power.

This paper is an effort to illustrate a number of factors shaping the global political economy, in the hope of generating a long-term foundation for transatlantic cooperation.

On June 26, 2007, then-U.S. Ambassador to Serbia Michael C. Polt delivered a speech at the Guarnerius Cultural Center in Belgrade on the occasion of the 60th anniversary of the Marshall Plan. Drawing on George C. Marshall's vision of a recovered, united, and free Europe, Ambassador Polt urged the Serbian people and their leadership to join the United States and Europe in a common effort to fulfill the Marshall ideal for Serbia as well.

The nature of future commitments on domestic support for agriculture continues to be a major sticking point in the negotiations on a new international trade agreement under the Doha Development Round of the World Trade Organization.

Testimony by John K. Glenn, director of Foreign Policy at the German Marshall Fund of the United States, before the Subcommittee on International Organizations, Human Rights, and Oversight in the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on International Affiars. Full testimony is available for download below.

Created in 1982 to introduce a new generation of European leaders to America’s institutions, politics, and people, GMF celebrates 25 successful years of Marshall Memorial Fellowship program.

The Balkan Trust for Democracy periodically releases a seasonal Bulletin in which it shares grantee success stories, the latest BTD news, and letters from Executive Director Ivan Vejvoda.

Variously labeled "color revolutions," "transitions from postcommunism," or "electoral breakthroughs," and for some representing even a new "wave of democracy," the recent changes in the post-Soviet nations have fascinated scholarly observers and democratic activists alike. This book provides a cross-section of perspectives on recent democratic breakthroughs in Central and Eastern Europe. Case studies drafted by civic leaders present inside accounts of how civil society helped to assert democracy, while comparative analyses by academic experts shed light on a range of further factors that facilitated these changes, including the semi-authoritarian nature of postcommunism, economic aspects, civil society strategies and resources, and youth participation.

Includes a review of 2006 in GMF events, programs, and grantmaking, and a letter from GMF President Craig Kennedy. Downloadable as a large PDF file.

Findings from the recently released National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's program are not revolutionary - but the ensuing debate could be transforming for U.S. and transatlantic strategy toward Iran.  The new estimate suggests that Tehran may well opt for a prolonged "near-nuclear" posture to secure greater regional weight and influence without triggering a sharp diplomatic or military response.  The option of a military strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure now looks more remote. But longer term transatlantic strategy will need to emphasize containment and extended deterrence ? alongside possible strategic dialogue with Iran.

We at the Balkan Trust for Democracy celebrate the beginning of our fourth year of grantmaking. With over 357 proposals reviewed and 156 grants made, fiscal year 2006 was our most productive yet. Together with our donors, partners, and grantees, we reaffirmed our dedication to strengthening democracy throughout the region, and look forward to continuing to do so for years to come.

Testimony by Ivan Vejvoda, executive director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, before the Subcommittee on Europe and Emerging Threats of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on International Relations on September 20.

On February 1, 2006, GMF Transatlantic Fellow Benoît Chervalier attended a conference on trade and global governance at the Ecole Normale Superieure in Paris. The challenges presented by globalization remain high and this was an opportunity to compare freer trade policies and protectionism from a historical perspective. Below is Chervalier’s piece entitled “Great world economic stakes of the 21st century, between protectionism and liberalization: a need for world governorship” (PDF - in French).

Ukraine's recent Orange Revolution opens an enormous opportunity to reinvigorate the democratic reform process in that country and to bring it closer to European and transatlantic structures. A new book just released by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, jointly with the Heinrich Boell Foundation of Germany, brings together renowned experts from Ukraine, Europe, and the United States to look more closely and systematically into the steps needed to take advantage of this opportunity both domestically and internationally.

As the Balkan countries move away from being zones of conflict and post-conflict towards stability and democratic consolidation, so some private and public funders have moved away from the Balkans to regions of greater need. But others, in particular some bilateral donors and the European Union, remain steadfast in their support. The Balkan Trust for Democracy, now one year old, is a partnership between some of the key funders that have remained. What has it achieved so far?

At the beginning of the 21st century, the Atlantic community faces a new challenge — to help promote democracy and human development in the broader Middle East. The reasons are both strategic and moral.

Speech given in Berlin to the annual conference of the Böll-Foundation

Executive summary in English, with full text in original language in attached file