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On Defense, France Bites the Bullet, But Avoids Strategic Insolvency May 7, 2013
Iceland’s Recovery Saga Presents Opportunities for Brussels, Washington—and Beijing May 6, 2013
Which Way Forward for Europe’s Hybrid Regimes? May 2, 2013
The Arab Revolts and the Liberal Order May 2, 2013
Events
GMF celebrates its 40 year history and Founder and Chairman, Dr. Guido Goldman at Gala Dinner May 09, 2013 / Washington, DCGMF held a celebratory gala dinner at the United States Institute of Peace in Washington, Wednesday May 8.
In this podcast, GMF Vice President of Programs Ivan Vejvoda discusses last month's historic agreement to normalize relations between Kosovo and Serbia.
Anchor Elaine Reyes speaks with Andrew Small, Transatlantic Fellow of the Asia Program for the German Marshall Fund, about Beijing's potential role in brokering peace between Israel and Palestine
Publications Archive
Airport Security: A National Security ChallengeMay 13, 2013 / Raphael Ron
This policy brief discusses the airport security aspect of border protection.
Brussels Forum ViewsMarch 19, 2013 / Raphael Ron
This collection from the 2013 Brussels Forum examines the theme “The Fragility of the Global System.”
The Fractured Ocean: Current Challenges to Maritime Policy in the Wider AtlanticNovember 29, 2012 / John B. Richardson, Armando Marques Guedes, Xavier de la Gorce, Anne-François de Saint Salvy, Paul Holthus
This policy paper examines the challenges posed by human activity on the Atlantic Ocean itself.
Global Swing States and the Maritime OrderNovember 27, 2012 / James Kraska
This policy paper looks at the maritime influence of Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey.
Global Swing States and the Non-Proliferation OrderNovember 27, 2012 / Megan Garcia
This policy paper examines the non-proliferation policies of Brazil, India, Indonesia, and Turkey.
New Dangers to the Western Liberal OrderNovember 02, 2012 / Ian Bremmer, Mark Leonard, Thomas Kleine-Brockhoff
This policy brief presents two views on a purported widening divide between Berlin and Washington, DC.
Transatlantic Trends 2012September 12, 2012 / Constanze Stelzenmueller
The 2012 Transatlantic Trends paints a picture of a complex relationship between the United States and Europe, and how they respond to global challenges.
Resource Rivalry in the Eastern Mediterranean: The View from WashingtonJune 11, 2012 / Jeffrey Mankoff
This policy brief examines the U.S. reaction to oil and gas finds in the Mediterranean.
Energy Discoveries in the Eastern Mediterranean: Source for Cooperation or Fuel for Tension? The Case of IsraelJune 11, 2012 / Simon Henderson
This policy brief looks at how Israel is reacting to its new-found natural gas deposits.
What does Central Asia’s “No-Show” at the NATO Chicago Summit Mean?June 08, 2012 / Marlène Laruelle
This policy brief explains the complex reactions Central Asian leaders have to NATO efforts in Afghanistan.
Resource Curse Redux: Linking Food and Water Stress with Global Resource Supply VulnerabilitiesJune 04, 2012 / Raimund Bleischwitz, Michael G. Dozler, Corey Johnson
This report provides a preliminary map of the global resource supply vulnerabilities from at-
risk countries.
This policy brief addresses China's aggressive pursuit of natural resources while expanding its transport networks and points out the need to better understand Chinese access diplomacy in the Asia-Pacific.
Prospects for Establishing a U.S.-Australia-Singapore Security Arrangement: The Australian PerspectiveMay 29, 2012 / Ryo Hinata-Yamaguchi
The United States and Australia should consider establishing a multilateral security arrangement with select Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) states. Singapore, in particular, would be an ideal and realistic partner. Singapore’s military capability and dynamic foreign relations network would prove invaluable to the Australia, New Zealand, United States Security Treaty (ANZUS), and a trilateral alliance of this nature would serve to enhance stability in the Southeast Asia region, Oceania, and Indian Ocean.
Japan’s China Policy — Engagement, but for How Long?May 29, 2012 / Victoria Tuke
The difficult strategic decisions facing Tokyo cannot forever be postponed. China’s economic growth and military modernization continue at full speed, with little sign of a dramatic slowdown. Japan needs to pursue a careful balance, through which stable and mutually beneficial relationships are maintained with both Beijing and Washington.
The Rise and Fall of Medvedev’s European Security TreatyMay 29, 2012 / Richard Weitz
This policy brief examines Russia's foreign policy under Medvedev.
A Transatlantic Perspective on the Future of LibyaMay 29, 2012 / Ronald Bruce St John
This policy paper looks at energy supply, illegal migration, investment and trade, and security issues between Libya and Europe.
What Next for NATOMay 23, 2012 / Mark R. Jacobson, Sarah Raine, Javid Ahmad, Alexandra de Hoop Scheffer, Joshua W. Walker, Emiliano Alessandri
This policy brief looks at current and future challenges for NATO from a variety of perspectives.
Transatlantic Trends: Public Opinion and NATOMay 17, 2012 / Zsolt Nyiri, Josh Raisher
This policy brief examines U.S. and European opinions on NATO.
The Global Resource Nexus: The Struggles for Land, Energy, Food, Water, and MineralsMay 15, 2012 / Philip Andrews-Speed, Raimund Bleischwitz, Tim Boersma, Corey Johnson, Geoffrey Kemp, Stacy D. VanDeveer
This study addresses challenges arising from unprecedented global demand for land, energy, food, water, and minerals.
From Arms Racing to “Dam Racing” in Asia: How to Contain the Geopolitical Risks of the Dam-Building CompetitionMay 03, 2012 / Brahma Chellaney
This paper warns that the struggle for water is now likely to define many inter-country relationships in Asia.
The Iranian Nuclear Crisis as Seen from Central AsiaApril 11, 2012 / Sébastien Peyrouse
This policy brief examines the views of Central Asian countries toward Iran's nuclear program.
Navigating a Nuclear Minefield: The United States, Europe, and IranMarch 19, 2012 / Nicholas Siegel
This Brussels Forum paper argues that sanctions will not be effective against Iran.
From Transition to Transformation: Europe’s Afghanistan Decade?March 19, 2012 / Javid Ahmad, Louise Langeby
The Afghanistan war represents NATO’s greatest international test since the Cold War. However, without discrediting the efforts made by the ISAF mission’s EU member states, the EU has, in certain respects, punched below its weight in Afghanistan. European initiatives such as the EUPOL have proved inadequate. The EU must step up its efforts in Afghanistan to focus more on the country’s transformation into a stable and self-sufficient state by helping it develop its economy, improve its police force, ensure long-term security cooperation, and constructively engage the region, with a particular focus on Pakistan.
The Geostrategic Implications of the Competition for Natural Resources: The Transatlantic DimensionMarch 12, 2012 / François Heisbourg
This paper describes the contemporary competition for natural resources.
Managing China’s Rise: A Strategic Imperative for U.S.-Europe Cooperation in the Global CommonsOctober 20, 2011 / Abraham Denmark
Given the remarkable speed and breadth of China’s rising power, and its enigmatic approach to several key international issues, successfully managing China’s rise will be essential to preserving the long-term health and success of the international system. The global commons (the high seas, air, space, and cyberspace) offer an excellent opportunity for the United States and Europe to bring a strategic element to efforts to manage China’s rise.
Southern Europe and the Mediterranean: National Approaches and Transatlantic PerspectivesSeptember 29, 2011 / Roberto Aliboni, Jean-François Daguzan, Thanos Dokos
This collection of papers looks at Southern European policies toward the Mediterranean from a transatlantic point of view.
Transatlantic Trends 2011September 14, 2011 / Zsolt Nyiri, Ben Veater-Fuchs
The 2011 edition of Transatlantic Trends paints a picture of a complex relationship between the United States and Europe and how they respond to global challenges....
Power and Values in a Changing Asia: Debating Australia’s Strategic FutureSeptember 07, 2011 / Andrew Shearer
Australia is at the forefront of the debate over how Western democracies should balance and manage their alliances with the United States, on the one hand, and their growing economic ties with China, on the other. There are multiple challenges facing the Australia-U.S. alliance flowing from the rise of China. How will Australian diplomatic, economic, and security dynamics challenge other Western democracies as they work to define their interests vis-à-vis the world’s current superpower and its ever-rising challenger?
From Down Under to Top Center: Australia, the United States, and this Century’s Special RelationshipMay 26, 2011 / Iskander Rehman
This paper argues that Australia will emerge as the United States' strongest ally in the Asia-Pacific region.
Transatlantic Trends: Leaders 2011March 15, 2011 / Iskander Rehman
This report presents the first systematic survey of the views of leaders in the European Union and the United States on the state, nature, and challenges of transatlantic relations.
Reversing Pakistan’s Drift Toward RadicalismFebruary 23, 2011 / Hasan Askari Rizvi
Radicalism has permeated the Pakistani society at large – including government institutions – and now represents the dominant worldview in the country. The social and educational changes advanced by the government of General Zia ul-Haq in the 1980s has severe implications for Pakistan’s domestic security and external relations today, and can only be reversed through a similar generational process involving educational reform and socio-economic development.
GMF and IPC conclude survey mapping of U.S. and EU public and private sector activity in southern & eastern African agricultureJanuary 01, 2011 / Hasan Askari Rizvi
From August until November 2010, the German Marshall Fund (GMF) and International Food & Agricultural Trade Policy Council (IPC) commissioned independent researcher Suzanne Zweben to compile information about the landscape of transatlantic public and private investment currently underway in the agriculture and rural support sectors in Mozambique, Rwanda, Tanzania, and Zambia. This research was based primarily on publicly available documentation about public and private investments, supplemented by off-the-record conversations and interviews with several transatlantic stakeholders and investment or project managers.
Maritime Commerce and Security in the Mediterranean and Adjacent Waters – Summary ReportDecember 22, 2010 / Emiliano Alessandri, Silvia Colombo
This report summarizes the main issues on maritime commerce and security debated during the fourth meeting of the Mediterranean Strategy Group, held in Genoa, on October 24 -26, 2010.
Zero Problems with Greece: Grounds for OptimismDecember 06, 2010 / Ilter Turan
This policy brief discusses the resumption of the quiet negotiation process between Greece and Turkey regarding Cyprus.
NATO Summit: Implications for Turkish Foreign PolicyDecember 06, 2010 / Soli Ozel
At the end of the Lisbon Summit, almost all of Ankara’s primary concerns were addressed, including not naming Iran or Syria as threats to obtain ballistic missile capability. As a result, Turkey went along with all the decisions taken collectively by the Alliance.
Turkey, the NATO Summit, and AfterNovember 23, 2010 / Ian Lesser
In this policy brief, the author explains that the Lisbon NATO summit experience suggests that some aspects of Turkish foreign policy remain cautious and traditional, and the NATO connection still matters.
Climate Security: Impacts and Opportunities for Transatlantic RelationsNovember 17, 2010 / Tobias Feakin, Duncan Depledge
This policy brief argues that given the lack of progress in the international climate negotiations, foreign-policy and defense sectors on both sides of the Atlantic should develop a contingency plan based on closer military and foreign-policy collaboration.
Future Landscapes of Conflict or Cooperation? Climate Security Needs Transatlantic LeadershipNovember 17, 2010 / Dennis Tänzler, Alexander Carius
This policy brief explains that to address the security risks from climate change, EU and U.S. decision makers should build a strategic partnership that involves the foreign and security policy communities as well as the development community.
Facing the Climate Security Threat: Why the Security Community Needs a “Whole-of-Government” Response to Global Climate ChangeNovember 17, 2010 / Nick Mabey
This policy brief explains that a more effective “whole-of-government” approach to the risk management of climate change would require the inclusion of climate change in national security processes, regular assessments of the effectiveness of climate security action, and a risk-management framework that expands responsibilities well beyond environment and energy ministries.
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa–SynopsisNovember 17, 2010 / Joshua Busby, Kaiba White, Todd Smith
This policy brief summarizes a paper that aims to reach a better understanding of how climate change and physical sources of vulnerability to natural hazards might intersect with North Africa’s various demographic, social, and political sources of weakness.
Mapping Climate Change and Security in North Africa–Full textNovember 17, 2010 / Joshua Busby, Kaiba White, Todd Smith
This paper aims to reach a better understanding of how climate change and physical sources of vulnerability to natural hazards might intersect with North Africa’s various demographic, social, and political sources of weakness.
The Consequences for NATO of a Nuclear Armed IranNovember 01, 2010 / Bruno Tertrais
While NATO is already taking into account the hypothesis of an Iranian threat, notably through its missile defense program, few comprehensive assessments, if any, have been made of what it would mean for NATO to live with a nuclear- armed Iran. This paper seeks to fill that gap.
Israel: Power, Vulnerability, Perception, and the Quest for PeaceNovember 01, 2010 / Shlomo Avineri
Shlomo Avineri takes a look at contemporary Israel in this paper written for the Halifax International Security Forum.
In the Wake of Destruction: A New World Order?November 01, 2010 / Janice Gross Stein
The global economy has just come through a near-death experience. Although it is out of intensive care, it is still not out of danger, and the early rush of euphoria in the spring of 2009 is being replaced by sober recognition of just how massive was the destruction and how steep and how long is the road to recovery.
Beyond “The Arc of Freedom and Prosperity”: Debating Universal Values in Japanese Grand StrategyOctober 26, 2010 / Tomohiko Taniguchi
From 2006 to 2008, the leaders of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) in Japan staked out an expansive vision for Japanese cooperation with fellow democracies in a geopolitical arc stretching from Southeast Asia to Central Europe. However, the ascent to power of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ) in 2009 called into question the values-oriented approach that animated this concept – the “Arc of Freedom and Prosperity” (AFP) – as an emerging component of Japanese grand strategy.
Why the NATO Nuclear Debate Is Relevant to Japan and Vice VersaOctober 08, 2010 / Michito Tsuruoka
The debate within the NATO alliance on nuclear issues is increasingly seen to be of direct relevance to Japan. In both NATO and the U.S.-Japan alliance, expanding consultations to include nonnuclear elements such as missile defense would strengthen existing relations. Additionally, by sharing their understanding of nuclear issues with one another, experts in the United States and its allied countries could help create a basis on which the credibility of extended deterrence can be maintained.
The Law of the Sea and Mediterranean SecuritySeptember 30, 2010 / Natalino Ronzitti
This paper argues that a transatlantic policy on maritime security should be devised that not only involves the organizations in which European states and the United States already collaborate such as NATO, but also strengthens relations between the EU and NATO. However, a common regulatory framework seems to be impossible for the time being, while cooperation on single issues appears to be much more feasible.
Maritime Security and the Fight Against Drug Trafficking in the Mediterranean and Atlantic ApproachesSeptember 30, 2010 / Vincenzo Delicato
The Mediterranean Sea is particularly affected by illicit trafficking in drugs. The author outlines current Italian strategies to curb this problem, and recommends future actions.
The Fight Against the Smuggling of Migrants in the Mediterranean: The Italian ExperienceSeptember 30, 2010 / Vincenzo Delicato
In recent years, Libya has become the main transit route toward the Italian coasts for illegal migrants, African and Asian nationals, trying to enter Europe by sea. This paper argues that the cooperation Italy is promoting with Libya and other states affected by illegal smuggling of migrants at sea is effective and should be supported. It aims not only at ensuring prevention and suppression of criminal phenomena and guaranteeing foreign nationals’ fundamental rights, but also at building the capacity of the states involved according to European models.
Globalization at Risk: Challenges to Finance and TradeSeptember 23, 2010 / Kati Suominen, Gary Clyde Hufbauer
The financial crisis of 2008-09 has now placed at risk the liberal economic policies behind globalization. This book explores the future of globalization.
In Search of a Common Transatlantic “Whole-of-Government” Approach to Peace-Building Processes in Africa: The Case of SudanAugust 19, 2010 / Timothy Othieno, Vita Sebek
This paper seeks to understand the vital importance of peace-building processes, which provide a new start for many fragile and conflict-ridden African states, and the need for coherent donor engagement strategies, which would help effectively address pressing issues in these states.
Maritime Security in the Mediterranean: European and Transatlantic ApproachesAugust 04, 2010 / Basil Germond, Eric Grove
This paper analyzes maritime security and naval cooperation in the Mediterranean, examining the relevance and capabilities of both NATO and the EU.
Gulf Cooperation Council countries’ political and economic ties with the Arab Mediterranean Countries and Turkey have strongly increased in the last decade. This study reveals that the GCC countries’ growing presence in the AMCs has had positive repercussions for the relevant NATO and EU cooperation frameworks.
Completing Europe: A Response to Ronald AsmusJuly 13, 2010 / Iris Kempe
Important institutional building blocks for further enlargement of NATO and the European Union led by the EU are being put into place and a new narrative can and should be framed around the theme of "Completing Europe."
Turkey’s Iran Policy: Moving Away from Tradition?June 24, 2010 / Ilter Turan
Based on the traditional framework of Turkish foreign policy, one would have expected it to encourage Iran to comply with the requirements of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and cooperate with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), while trying to persuade the United States and other members of the UN Security Council that diplomatic means should be given continued priority.
To Engage or Not to Engage: The Policy Dilemma of Dealing with BelarusJune 18, 2010 / Pavol Demeš, Sabine FischerHow to deal with Belarus, along with the question of whether to engage or seek to isolate the regime of Aleksandr Lukashenka has been a bone of contention in policy debates across the Atlantic. Sabine Fischer and Pavol Demes take different sides of the debate in this On Wider Europe series.
Preventing the Proliferation of Weapons of Mass Destruction: What Role for Turkey?June 08, 2010 / Pavol Demeš, Sabine Fischer
Against this backdrop of increasing focus on the possible proliferation of WMDs, Turkey’s own policies in the area of nonproliferation as a NATO member, as a neighbor of Iran, and as a country located in a region prone to proliferation, have started to generate interest. Indeed what role can be ascribed to nonproliferation concerns in Turkish foreign policy?
New Players in the MediterraneanMay 01, 2010 / Pavol Demeš, Sabine Fischer
The number of new states seeking some combination of economic, energy, and security gains in the Mediterranean is increasing. Some have historical ties with the Mediterranean region and the Maghreb and are trying to build or rebuild economic and security ties. Others probably see the Mediterranean region through both short- and longer-term filters that reveal more immediate economic interests but that eventually converge with a larger strategic plan. Still others see purely economic benefits, and a few see purely security benefits.
Turkey and the Nuclear SummitApril 21, 2010 / Ian LesserConsidering persistent U.S.-Turkish differences over Iran, the participation by the Turkish Prime Minister in last week's Nuclear Security Summit in Washington was viewed as good news. However, the summit has not bridged the gap in strategy toward Iran's nuclear ambitions.
The Clash of PerceptionsApril 04, 2010 / Zsolt NyiriThere is an important disconnect between the attitudes toward social integration that most Europeans attribute to Muslims living in their countries, and the actual attitudes expressed by European Muslims themselves. Public opinion data reveal that the opinions of Muslims living in London, Paris, and Berlin are generally similar to those of the broader British, French, and German publics on such issues as religious tolerance and willingness to coexist with those of different ethnicities or faiths.A New European Order?March 22, 2010 / Daniel Fata
The authors ask if the Medvedev Proposal for a new European security structure is the right approach to include Russia and build a safer Europe. But they come to different conclusions. An opportunity to create a more effective security architecture should not be passed up, argues Robert Legvold, while GMF-authors David J. Kramer and Daniel P. Fata claim that the proposal is a non-starter.
Nuclear Policy and Iran: An Opportunity for TurkeyMarch 22, 2010 / Daniel Fata
The question of uranium enrichment lies at the core of the nuclear standoff with Iran. As Turkey strives to create a role for itself in the settlement of this dispute between Iran and the international community, it is doubtful Turkish policymakers are aware of the real political opportunity the crisis has created.
Better NATO-EU relations require more sincerityJanuary 26, 2010 / Can Buharalı
Following an agreement on a new NATO Strategic Concept, the EU needs to take compatible steps. A number of practical arrangements need to be put in place in such a way as to embrace all non-EU European allies.
A Little War that Shook the World: Georgia, Russia, and the Future of the WestJanuary 15, 2010 / Can BuharalıA Little War that Shook the World: Georgia, Russia, and the Future of the West, a book written by Ronald D. Asmus, executive director of the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund, was released on January 15, 2010, in Europe and and January 19, 2010, in the United States, by Palgrave Macmillan. Focus on Ukraine: Security Choices After the Election: New Direction for Ukraine?January 13, 2010 / Joseph R. Wood
Although NATO membership is not getting headlines in this year's Ukrainian presidential election, the broader issue of Ukrainian security is very much at stake. The most logical course for Ukrainian security policy is to continue military reform and modernization at a measured pace. Without serious governance and a reasonably clear strategic direction, Ukraine's security situation will remain precarious.
Focus on Ukraine: Energy Security for Ukraine and EuropeJanuary 11, 2010 / Jörg Himmelreich
Reforming Ukraine's energy sector is vital for the future of Ukraine's economy and security. Ukraine's economic recovery depends on reforming the energy sector, which has suffered severe politicization since the 1990s leading to non-transparent business operations and mega-corruption. European concerns about secure gas supplies from Russia, via Ukraine, have become the overarching policy matter on the current EU-Ukraine agenda. To strengthen Ukraine's energy sector, the new Ukrainian president should start abandoning domestic subsidies for oil and gas prices and let the price reach global market levels.
Kurdish Opening: Onto the Second RoundDecember 23, 2009 / Soli Özel
Turkey had two options: Wage war and send the military across the border to northern Iraq, where the PKK made the Kandil mountain range their headquarters, or engage politically with Iraqi Kurds and seek serious reform at home.
Decoding the Erdoğan VisitDecember 15, 2009 / Ian Lesser
In early December, Turkish Prime Minister Erdoğan made an official visit to Washington to meet with President Obama. Both sides are likely to have come away convinced that some potentially difficult issues have been managed. Yet, the visit did little to bridge substantial differences in perception and approach on key issues, above all, Iran, the Palestinian issue, and the complex of disputes in the Caucasus. Policymakers and observers on both sides are left with a list of unresolved open questions that could shape the course of the new model partnership in the near to medium term.
Turkey’s Kurdish Gambit: The Road to PeaceNovember 13, 2009 / Amberin Zaman
Turkey's ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) has launched a bold campaign to end the country's long-running Kurdish problem.
Is Non-Proliferation a Lost Cause?November 01, 2009 / Amberin Zaman
Non-proliferation efforts have swung wildly from successes to failures. But the aim of stopping the spread of nuclear weapons is not a lost cause. In order to sustain its credibility and legitimacy it is vital now that solutions of one form or another are found for the main challenges that are faced in India-Pakistan, North Korea, and Iran.
From Denial to Governance: A New Prism for Nuclear Non-ProliferationNovember 01, 2009 / Libby Turpen
The current focus on attempting to deny technology and know how to aspirant nuclear powers is flawed and futile. By 2050, the number of states using civilian nuclear power could easily rise from the current 30 to 50 or 60. In order to prevent a collapse of the non-proliferation regime it is necessary to adopt a holistic approach which recognizes the frustrations and resentments of countries in the global South.
Could the New Japanese Government Herald Novel Departures in Security Policy?November 01, 2009 / Tsuneo "Nabe" Watanabe
The stability, or inertia, that has characterized Japanese politics since the end of the Second World War may have been broken apart by the election of a new-look government in September. It is therefore an open question as to whether the new administration of Prime Minister Yukio Hatoyama will prove as reliable a partner for the United States and its allies as in the past.
Arctic Security: The New Great Game?November 01, 2009 / Daniel Fata
Environmental change in the Arctic combined with the ever more rapacious search for new energy sources has turned what was once a barely noticed wilderness into the focal point of new competition between the states that border it and the great powers that want a part of it. The world needs to find ways to manage this competition peacefully and in a way that prevents damage to one of the most important ecosystems on the planet.
A Fundamentally Flawed Afghan PolicyNovember 01, 2009 / James Kunder
The key flaw in the current allied policy in Afghanistan is the obsessive focus on defeating the Taliban rather than focusing on the real problems of illiteracy, social deprivation and rural feudalism of which the Taliban are really an epiphenomenon. Policymakers must also put aside misleading analogies with Iraq, however tempting they may be, and consider Afghanistan in its own domestic context.
International Security and Climate ChangeNovember 01, 2009 / Sherri Goodman, David M Catarious
With looming threats to water sources, food production, health and the general habitability of entire regions, climate change would inevitably have enormous consequences for international security. Military experts can bring an important contribution to the debate by showing how reducing our dependence on carbon emitting fuels can simultaneously decrease our energy security vulnerabilities.
Maritime Security: Growing Problems on the Seven SeasNovember 01, 2009 / Andrew M Dorman
The rise of piracy off the Somali coast has brought the issue of maritime security back into the public mind. But amid all the attention on Afghanistan and Iraq there is a danger that we are not taking these and other threats to maritime security seriously enough. Climate change may also open new passages to shipping in the arctic which policymakers are only just beginning to address.
Power and Norms in U.S. Asia StrategyOctober 23, 2009 / Michael J. Green, Daniel Twining
China's rise is one of the most significant geopolitical events in modern history, with important ramifications for U.S. interests, regional power balances, and the international order. As the Obama administration confronts a broad set of worldwide challenges, questions remain as to how the United States should engage China amidst uncertainty about its long-term intentions and how to balance this important relationship against concerns regarding China's behavior in the international community.
American, Europe, Iran and PhysicsOctober 01, 2009 / Joseph R. Wood
September saw a major U.S. policy shift on missile defense in Europe, revelations of a previously undisclosed Iranian nuclear site, threats of sanctions against Iran, and preparations for a new discussion between Iran and the West. But in the midst of so much apparent change, many facts remained constant. Unfortunately, the two winners seem to be Iran and its sometime-supporter, Russia.
Linking Japan and the Transatlantic Community in the Age of Asia’s RiseSeptember 28, 2009 / Michito Tsuruoka
The relationship between the transatlantic partners and Japan has been internationally considered as being of paramount importance in the past. Now, however, the relationship between the transatlantic community and Japan has lost precedence due to a greater focus on a rising India and China. The G7/8 has made way for the G20.
The New Look in Missile Defense: Thinking Through Turkish StakesSeptember 28, 2009 / Ian Lesser
The Obama administration's decision to reconfigure its missile defense plans in Europe will have significant implications for Turkey and its alliance relationships. This will cast a spotlight on Turkey's policy toward Iran's nuclear ambitions, and looming decisions on sanctions and the possible use of force.
Medvedev’s MessageAugust 21, 2009 / Ian LesserRussia's president, Dmitri Medvedev, has had a busy August. On Aug. 11, he wrote to the Ukrainian president, Viktor Yushchenko, announcing his decision to delay - indefinitely - the dispatch of the new Russian ambassador to Ukraine. Mr. Medvedev explained his decision by citing Mr. Yushchenko's anti-Russian policies. He also hinted that the decision might be reversed after Ukraine's presidential election in January, when the country will have "new political leadership."Speaking the TruthAugust 01, 2009 / Ian LesserVice President Biden had just completed a successful visit to Ukraine and Georgia last week when he created a new controversy with dire predictions about Russia. His comments, arguably ill-timed for his boss's efforts to reset relations with Moscow, were not the only ones in the past few days offering a gloomy outlook on Russia. The outgoing European Union Ambassador to Russia Marc Franco similarly warned that Russia would maintain "many characteristics of a Third World economy" unless it established real rule of law. A Russian leadership facing the kinds of problems Biden and Franco describe is less, not more, likely to work together with us on a whole host of issues GMF Fellow David Kramer testifies on Iran before Helsinki CommissionJuly 16, 2009 / Ian Lesser
On July 16, GMF senior transatlantic fellow David Kramer testified before the Helsinki Commission at the hearing on "Iran and the OSCE Neighbors."
Sunshine Policy – What Obama achieved, and didn’t, in MoscowJuly 01, 2009 / Ian LesserBarack Obama deserves credit for his efforts to reset relations with Russia over the past two days in Moscow. The U.S. president succeeded, at least for now, in changing the tone of the U.S.-Russia relationship, even on issues of disagreement, though many fundamental disputes -- Georgia, Iran, missile defense -- remain. Ultimately, Obama's major success in the past few days was less in the agreements he signed but in the statements he made, the signals he sent, and the broad group of people he met. If there is a bright light to be found amid Washington's many remaining tensions with Moscow, this is it. “Af-Pak,” Obama’s Strategy For Afghanistan and PakistanJuly 01, 2009 / Daniel Twining
State weakness that enables terrorists to find sanctuary in Pakistan and Afghanistan poses a direct danger to Europeans and Americans. The strategic challenge for the U.S. and its European allies is sustaining a common commitment to helping the Afghan and Pakistani governments develop the institutional capability to secure their territories. It would be dangerous to walk away from our commitment to Afghanistan and Pakistan. The only viable exit strategy for the West is a victory strategy.
An Anachronistic Approach to RussiaJune 26, 2009 / Joseph R. Wood
In July, President Obama will meet Russian President Medvedev for the second time to hear the results of the negotiations for an agreement to replace the START treaty, which is set to expire this year. Using Cold War means, arms control, to cope with post-Cold War problems allows Russia to divert attention from the real problems we face and claim superpower-like prestige for which it longs.
China’s Af-Pak MomentMay 20, 2009 / Andrew Small
As the United States and Europe look for additional sources of leverage in Pakistan and Afghanistan, a heightened role for China is one of the most promising-and the least discussed. China's substantial strategic interests in Pakistan, its major investments in both countries, and security concerns that range from narcotics flows to terrorist bases give it many shared stakes with the West. But translating common interests into complementary policies will be a challenge.
GMF Fellow Joe Wood testimony for Senate Foreign Relations subcommittee on EuropeMay 06, 2009 / Joseph R. WoodGMF Senior Transatlantic Fellow Joe Wood testified on May 6 before the Europe subcommittee of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Wood testified on NATO's future and challenges beyond the alliance's 60th anniversary this year.De-Hyphenate Af-PakMay 05, 2009 / Daniel TwiningAs President Obama hosts the leaders of Pakistan and Afghanistan in Washington tomorrow and calls on Congress to increase assistance to both countries, his administration can claim credit for regionalizing America's strategy for victory in Afghanistan.
America’s New Nuclear Disarmament Policy and the Transatlantic RelationshipMay 04, 2009 / Daniel Twining
In his speech in Prague, Czech Republic, on April 5, 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama outlined his ultimate goal of a world without nuclear weapons. These proposals stand in almost complete reversal to the Bush administration's stance on nuclear issues. Europeans have in general been frustrated by the lack of interest in arms control shown by the previous administration. The important fact in the aftermath of the Prague speech is that the U.S. president has presented U.S. allies with a number of specific measures that serve both sides' interests and together provide a more viable view of the balance to be achieved between nuclear nonproliferation and disarmament. They should concentrate their energy on making this agenda happen and transforming it into viable policy.
Shock of the New: Congress in Asia in 2009March 06, 2009 / Edward Gresser, Daniel Twining
The 111th Congress must develop a long-term agenda to manage rapid change in Asia. This will require conceptual adjustment, energetic and creative U.S. leadership, and international commitment. Congress can play a critical role in promoting policies that allow the U.S. to shape and lead an emerging Pacific century, including strengthening relations with core allies, reshaping international institutions to ensure that China and India assume major-power obligations as well as rights, and intensifying engagement in Southeast Asia with stern commitment to open markets, alliances with democracies, and multilateralism.
European Gas Policy in TroubleFebruary 26, 2009 / Jörg Himmelreich
The Ukranian-Russian gas stand-off caused a two-week interruption of Russian gas supplies to Europe that left countries like Greece, Bulgaria, and Slovakia in the cold during a strong winter and revealed again how vulnerable the European Union is in its gas supplies from Russia. Jörg Himmelreich suggests four hard decisions that must be made by the EU. Europe needs to address the varying dependencies on Russian gas within member states, the lack of interconnectivity within the market, discuss the need for a European common external energy policy, and establish of a European energy agency.
Engaging Europe on AfghanistanJanuary 27, 2009 / John K. Glenn, Oliver Mains
The enthusiasm in Europe for the U.S. election of Barack Obama has raised hopes for progress on a range of issues on the transatlantic agenda, among the most pressing of which is stabilization and reconstruction in Afghanistan. Yet it remains uncertain whether Obama’s personal popularity can or will translate into additional contributions from Europeans, who have deep reservations about the use of force. Public opinion data suggests that the new U.S. administration should pursue a new diplomacy that builds on European support for a range of non-combat missions.
What should Obama do about missile defense?November 30, 2008 / Daniel FataObama must adopt the only prudent way forward on missile defense, which requires several steps to be taken no later than the April 2009 NATO Summit.Will Turkey Opt Out?September 15, 2008 / Soli Özel
Many of the developments that shake the world happen around Turkey, most notably Iraq, Iran, and Georgia. Both the Turkish state and nation feel the effects of political and military developments in the regions surrounding the country and the importance of the transatlantic alliance will be further highlighted through Turkey. America and the European Union would be well advised to treat Turkey as a valued member of the alliance and communicate to the Turkish public their intentions and policies in a more direct and constructive fashion.
Hosting AhmedinejadSeptember 15, 2008 / Soli Özel
Last month, Iran's President Mahmoud Ahmedinejad paid a working visit to Turkey. The fact that the Iranian President was hosted by the Turkish President Abdullah Gül is a sign of Ankara's willingness to become a more active player in the region. In the past few months, Turkish diplomacy scored a few visible successes in the Middle East. Ankara played an instrumental role in bringing about an end to the factional strife in Lebanon. The policy on Syria also produced tangible results.
After Georgia: Turkey’s Looming Foreign Policy DilemmasAugust 26, 2008 / Ian Lesser
The Russian invasion of Georgia is a stark reminder of the unsettled nature of the Turkish geopolitical scene. By all indications, the crisis in Georgia is unlikely to end anytime soon. Even if Russian forces withdraw to negotiated positions, there is every prospect for a sustained Russian political and security presence in the country. Under these conditions, Ankara will once again face Russian power directly on its borders. In the near-term, Turkey will face difficult policy choices in reconciling the country's Russian and Western interests. Even more difficult dilemmas are on the horizon as a more competitive relationship with Russia looms, and NATO is compelled to rethink its own strategy and posture.
Crisis in the South Caucasus: Turkey’s Big MomentAugust 25, 2008 / Amberin Zaman
As the only NATO member to border the Caucasus. Turkey control the Bosporus and Dardanelles, through which Russia and other Black Sea countries conduct most of their trade. The conflict between Georgia and Russia offers Turkey a unique opportunity to bolster its regional clout, to check Russian and Iranian influence, and to help secure the flow of Western-bound oil and natural gas from former Soviet Central Asia and Azerbaijan. Will Turkey's leaders rise to the occasion?
Europe and Israel: Strengthening the Partnership- Testimony before the House Committee on Foreign AffairsJuly 09, 2008 / Ian LesserSenior Transatlantic Fellow Ian Lesser testified today before the House Committee on Foreign Affairs in a joint hearing of the Subcommittee on Europe and the Subcommittee on the Middle East and South Asia. His testimony is posted in the attached document.A Middle East Final Act?June 01, 2008 / Marc Grossman
April 2009 will mark the 10th anniversary of the entry of Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic into NATO. The journey of these and other former Warsaw Pact countries to the EU and NATO is one of the most inspiring transformations in modern history. Lessons from these remarkable achievements are relevant to the U.S. foreign policy debate in three critical areas.
Internationalizing the Georgia-Abkhazia Conflict Resolution Process: Why a Greater European Role is NeededJune 01, 2008 / Svante Cornell, Antje Herrberg, Nicu Popescu
The last several years have seen a deterioration in the situation, a growing tension level in the conflict zone and an increased danger of renewed conflict in Abkhazia. At stake is not only Abkhazia or Georgia, but the rules of the game in European security.
Turkey’s Travails: Outlook and Strategic ConsequencesMay 01, 2008 / Ian Lesser
As Turkey’s Constitutional Court prepares to act on the closure case pending against the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP), Turks across the ideological spectrum are watching and waiting. Predictions and preferences abound; active responses are limited. Caution and inertia appear to be the order of the day, even for those most exposed to the consequences of political and economic turmoil.
China’s African AidApril 24, 2008 / Deborah BrautigamThe rise of China as a very visible actor in Africa is one of the most striking features of the first decade of the new millennium. Trade between the two regions is projected to reach $100 billion before 2010, ten times the 2000 figure. At the same time, the rise of China has been greeted with fear and apprehension by many in the United States, Europe, and Africa who see this strong interest more as a threat than an opportunity.Bucharest Conference PapersApril 01, 2008 / Robin Shepherd
Edited by Robin Shepherd of Chatham House and released in advance of the Bucharest Conference and ahead of the official NATO Summit, the Bucharest Conference Papers are written by independent authors on the topics of NATO's mission in Afghanistan; NATO enlargement; global cyber defense and NATO; and NATO's relationship with Russia.
Kosovo: The Balkans’ Moment of Truth: Testimony before Senate Committee on Foreign RelationsMarch 04, 2008 / Ivan Vejvoda
Ivan Vejvoda, executive director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, testified before the U.S. Senate Foreign Relations Committee regarding Kosovo and the Balkans.
Balancing National Security and CommerceMarch 01, 2008 / Henry Farrell
Following several years of tension between Europe and the United States, policymakers on both sides of the Atlantic have rediscovered pragmatism. Apparently irreconcilable differences of values are giving way to new forms of practical cooperation. However, the new transatlantic relationship differs from the old one in some very important ways. New issues that involve access to various forms of security-sensitive economic information are becoming increasingly prominent. These issues, however, do not fit neatly into the traditional boxes of the transatlantic relationship.
The Crisis of the Post-Cold War European Order: What to Do About Russia’s Newfound Taste for Confrontation With the WestMarch 01, 2008 / Ivan Krastev
The author of this paper argues that Russia’s newfound taste for confrontation with the West is not an emotional overreaction or theatrical grandstanding – it is a strategic choice. The Kremlin’s new foreign policy is not circumstantial in nature. It is the expression of a new foreign policy consensus within the Russian elite and the Russian society at large. The author analyzes what the West can do to allow the coexistence of a post-modern European Union and a post-imperial Russia.
Transatlantic Power Failures: America and Europe Seven Years After 9/11March 01, 2008 / Constanze Stelzenmueller
This paper examines the massive failures of that occurred after 9/11 on both sides of the Atlantic. It analyzes the notion of power, and the ideas and policies that stemmed from the attack by asking the following questions: What failed, and why? What remains valid, and worth preserving? And what is the way forward for the transatlantic relationship?
Of Ayatollahs and Jacobins: Rebalancing after the Rise of Revolutionary Powers–A Historical Lesson for Transatlantic Policy Toward IranMarch 01, 2008 / David Ignatius
In this paper, the Iranian revolution of 1979 is compared to the French revolution of 1789 in its destabilizing effects—and in the need it created for a new balance of power.
Time to Talk to IranMay 12, 2007 / Robert KaganRegardless of what one thinks about the National Intelligence Estimate's conclusion that Iran stopped its nuclear weapons program in 2003 -- and there is much to question in the report -- its practical effects are indisputable. The Bush administration cannot take military action against Iran during its remaining time in office, or credibly threaten to do so, unless it is in response to an extremely provocative Iranian action.Iran Policy After the NIE? Modest Findings, Revolutionary EffectsJanuary 08, 2007 / Ian Lesser
Findings from the recently released National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's program are not revolutionary - but the ensuing debate could be transforming for U.S. and transatlantic strategy toward Iran. The new estimate suggests that Tehran may well opt for a prolonged "near-nuclear" posture to secure greater regional weight and influence without triggering a sharp diplomatic or military response. The option of a military strike against Iran's nuclear infrastructure now looks more remote. But longer term transatlantic strategy will need to emphasize containment and extended deterrence ? alongside possible strategic dialogue with Iran.
Next Steps in Forging a Euroatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black SeaNovember 20, 2006 / Ian LesserNext Steps in Forging a Euroatlantic Strategy for the Wider Black Sea, edited by Ronald Asmus with a forward by Javier Solana, presents concrete ideas of what a more ambitious and forward leaning strategy for the Black Sea could and should be. The book consists of contributions from a number of expert authors from the United States, the European Union, and the wider Black Sea region.The Riga PapersNovember 20, 2006 / Richard Holbrooke, Ivan Krastev, Christoph Bertram, Zaneta Ozolina
In preparation for the Riga Conference, entitled "Transforming NATO in a New Global Era," GMF has commissioned five papers from leading thinkers on both sides of the Atlantic on the future challenges facing NATO. These original policy papers frame the critical issues both on and off the Summit agenda.Prospects for Democracy in Belarus- 2nd EditionOctober 12, 2006 / Pavol Demeš, Joerg ForbrigPublished jointly by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF) and the Heinrich Böll Foundation of Germany, Prospects for Democracy in Belarus provides a systematic account of recent developments in Belarus, combined with more strategic and policy-oriented considerations on improving Western democracy assistance. It brings together perspectives of twenty-five contributors, including activists, analysts, and policymakers from Belarus, Europe, and the United States. They explore prospects for democracy in Belarus by scrutinizing the domestic and international context prior to the recent elections, by providing a variety of perspectives on the presidential poll and the events surrounding it, and by discussing a variety of options for improving Western, and especially European, support for democracy in Belarus. European Defence – Myth or Reality?October 02, 2006 / Constanze StelzenmuellerGMF's Constanze Stelzenmueller talks about the myths and realities of a common European Defence force, in particular five myths surrounding pragmatic integration and future consequences for the EU. Serbia’s Current Issues and Future Direction: Testimony before the House Committee on International RelationsSeptember 20, 2006 / Ivan Vejvoda
Testimony by Ivan Vejvoda, executive director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, before the Subcommittee on Europe and Emerging Threats of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on International Relations on September 20.
Prospects for Democracy in BelarusApril 01, 2006 / Pavol Demeš, Joerg ForbrigPublished by GMF and the Heinrich Böll Foundation, Prospects for Democracy in Belarus provides a systematic account of recent developments in Belarus and strategic and policy-oriented considerations on improving Western democracy assistance. It brings together perspectives of 25 contributors, including activists, analysts, and policymakers from Belarus, Europe, and the United States.German and transatlantic relations: NATO and the EU in the 21st centuryNovember 10, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotPanel presentation given in Amsterdam to ‘German and American Reorientation toward NATO’ conference organized by the Germany Institute Amsterdam and the Netherlands Atlantic Association, November 10-11, 2005.Die geo-strategische Bedeutung der Türkei im Rahmen der ESVP, Broader Middle East und der transatlantischen BeziehungenSeptember 29, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotAlthough Turkish EU membership is dividing the European public and political decision makers, there are a lot of good reasons, above all geo-strategic, for an enlargement to this important country, which would serve as a bridge between orient and occident.More Europe – less NATO?September 23, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotPanel presentation given in Prague to EUROPEUM conference, “Changing landscape in transatlantic relations: New EU member states and candidate countries between Brussels and Washington.”Deutschlands Rolle in einer globalen WeltSeptember 17, 2005 / Ulrike GuérotGermany is being perceived as a very important EU country and the world’s attention has been placed on the German election. But Germany doesn’t often receive positive recognition; instead it often receives complaints about political, economic and institutional gridlock. Germany therefore is under huge reform pressure. Executive summary in English with full text in original language in attached file.Bosnia-Herzegovina: Unfinished Business: Testimony Before the House Committee on International RelationsApril 06, 2005 / Ivan VejvodaTestimony by Ivan Vejvoda, executive director of the Balkan Trust for Democracy, before the Subcommittee on Europe and Emerging Threats of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on International Relations.Does Israel Belong in the EU and NATOFebruary 01, 2005 / Bruce P. JacksonOver the course of the past year, a debate has started over whether Israel should rethink its relationship with the core institutions of the Euro-Atlantic community, namely NATO and the EU, and if so, how. The impetus for this rethinking has originated both in Israel and on both sides of the Atlantic.Depoliticizing Manas: The Domestic Consequences of the U.S. Military Presence in KyrgyzstanFebruary 01, 2005 / Alexander CooleyOver three years since the United States established military bases in Central Asia to support Operation Enduring Freedom (OEF), the military installation at Manas airport continues to define many aspects of the U.S.-Kyrgyz relationship. Much has passed in Kyrgyzstan since fall 2001, and several informative accounts have analyzed the dynamics of the evolving U.S.-led coalition presence. The overall argument of this paper is that through a combination of U.S. decisions about the base and the dynamics of Kyrgyzstan’s patrimonial domestic institutions, the U.S. presence at Manas has become “depoliticized.”A New Euro-Atlantic Strategy for the Black Sea RegionJuly 01, 2004 / Joerg Forbrig, Konstantin DimitrovIt addresses a key strategic question facing the Euro- Atlantic community today: should the United States and Europe embrace the goal of anchoring the countries of the broader Black Sea region in the Euro-Atlantic community? The authors of the essays contained in these pages argue that they should. They challenge us to go beyond those voices, which currently insist that Europe's unification is complete and that the enlargement of NATO and the EU must be put on hold. They challenge us to think - once again - in a big and bold fashion about adopting and pursuing policies that can change the map of Europe.German Marshall Fund 2003 Annual ReportDecember 01, 2003 / Joerg Forbrig, Konstantin Dimitrov2003 has turned out to be an even more challenging year for U.S.–European relations. Serious policy differences between the United States and Europe over the war in Iraq, the use of American power, the future of the Middle East, and a host of other issues dominated an acrimonious agenda. Substantive concerns were exacerbated by overheated rhetoric and accusations of betrayal and arrogance in the media and elsewhere. The situation became so rancorous that some prominent analysts began considering a world in which the United States and Europe might be estranged politically and strategically for many years to come.