Press Information 2009

For More Information, Please Contact:

In the U.S.: Will Bohlen: +1 202 683 2609, wbohlen@gmfus.org
In Europe: Elizabeth Boswell Rega: +32 2 238 5 283, eboswellrega@gmfus.org

 

 

SURVEY: SUPPORT FOR U.S. LEADERSHIP SKYROCKETS IN EUROPE

~ “Obama bounce” is biggest jump in eight-year history of GMF survey;
Central and East Europeans remain less enthusiastic;
 Transatlantic differences on Afghanistan, Iran, and Climate Change ~

 

 

WASHINGTON, DC (September 9, 2009)—European support for U.S. President Barack Obama’s handling of foreign policy is quadruple the approval given to his predecessor, George W. Bush, according to a new survey released today by the German Marshall Fund of the United States (GMF). But people in Central and Eastern Europe and Turkey were markedly less enthusiastic about Obama and the United States than were their West European counterparts. And Obama’s personal popularity has not bridged serious transatlantic differences over Afghanistan, Iran, and climate change.

 

Transatlantic Trends 2009 (www.transatlantictrends.org) shows that  three-in-four (77%) respondents in the European Union and Turkey support President Obama’s handling of international affairs compared to just one-in-five (19%) who approved of President Bush’s foreign policy in 2008.

 

“We see a remarkable shift in transatlantic opinion from the previous administration,” said Craig Kennedy, GMF president. “With American leadership enjoying unprecedented modern popularity, partners on both sides of the Atlantic have an immense opportunity to cooperate on a range of economic and security issues.”

 

“At the beginning of his mandate President Obama has been given a stunning credit by public opinion on both sides of the Atlantic,” said Angelo Benessia, chairman of the Compagnia di San Paolo. “Now European leaders can build on Obama’s popularity to talk to the White House in an environment that is all but anti-American, and thus speak clearly when it comes to sensitive issues, such as Afghanistan, Iran, or Middle East. The picture will be perfect, the day Obama is told which phone number he has to dial, when he wants to talk to Europe.”

 

Transatlantic Trends 2009 — a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States and the Compagnia di San Paolo in Turin, Italy, with additional support from the Fundação Luso-Americana (Portugal), the Fundación BBVA (Spain), and the Tipping Point Foundation (Bulgaria) — measures broad public opinion in the United States and 12 European countries and gauges transatlantic relations through interviews with more than 13,000 people.  For the eighth consecutive year, participants were asked their views on each other and on global threats, foreign policy objectives, world leadership, and multilateral institutions.

 

OBAMA’S TRANSATLANTIC IMPACT
To Europeans, President Obama is certainly no George W. Bush. Support of the current American president jumped 80 percentage points in Germany, 77 points in France, 70 in Portugal, and 64 in Italy. No other single annual indicator changed this much in the eight years of Transatlantic Trends. Even in Turkey, where only half the respondents (50%) support Obama, that backing represents a 42 percentage-point increase over approval of President Bush (8%) in 2008.

 

NOT ANTI-AMERICAN, BUT LESS ATLANTICIST
The Obama bounce was more pronounced in Western than in Central and Eastern Europe. West Europeans (86%) overwhelmingly view Obama’s policies favorably. But respondents in Central and East European countries, while still supportive (60%), are markedly less enthusiastic. In 2009, fewer people in Central and Eastern Europe (53%) than in Western Europe (63%) see America in a positive light. That is a reversal from 2008 when, by a slight margin, Central and East European nations (44%) were more favorably disposed toward the United States than were their West European counterparts (40%).  People in Central and Eastern Europe (25%) are far less likely than West Europeans (43%) to believe that relations between the United States and Europe have improved over the past year. Fewer Central and East Europeans (53%) than West Europeans (63%) believe that NATO is essential. But more Central and East Europeans (45%) than West Europeans (39%) believe that the partnership in security, diplomatic, and economic affairs between the United States and the European Union should become closer, suggesting a desire for better ties with Washington even as the region remains relatively cool to the new American president.

 

SUPPORT FOR AFGHANISTAN MISSION WANING IN EUROPE
Notwithstanding growing European support for transatlantic security cooperation, the NATO allies disagree about Afghanistan. Nearly two-thirds of Europeans (63%) are pessimistic about stabilizing the situation in that war-torn country. At the same time, a majority of Americans (56%) are optimistic. The prevailing view in all of the nations surveyed, except for the United States, is to see the number of their troops reduced or their forces totally withdrawn. More than half of West Europeans (55%) and two-thirds of East Europeans (69%) want to reduce or remove their soldiers from Afghanistan. In the United States, but not so much in Europe, the Afghanistan troop deployment is a partisan concern. Two-in-five Democrats (46%) and Independents (43%), but one-in-five Republicans (22%) want to reduce or withdraw U.S. forces from Afghanistan. Nevertheless, 10 of the 12 European countries show no inhibition about increasing European contributions to Afghanistan’s economic reconstruction, as Obama has requested.

 

MARS AND VENUS ON IRAN, TREPIDATION ABOUT RUSSIA
Europeans and Americans disagree on what to do about Iran. If diplomatic efforts would fail to prevent Tehran from acquiring nuclear weapons, a majority of people in the European Union (53%) would increase diplomatic pressure on Iran, but rule out the use of military force. Americans (47%) favor increasing diplomatic pressure on Iran, while maintaining the option of resorting to force. Republicans (57%) and Independents (49%) are much more likely than Democrats (36%) to want to maintain a military option in dealing with Tehran. Moscow’s behavior toward its neighbors is a growing concern among the NATO allies. In 2009, seven-in-ten Europeans (70%) favor the European Union providing security assistance for emerging democracies such as Ukraine and Georgia. And a majority of Americans (68%) back Washington taking similar action. Strong majorities of NATO members (62%) and Americans (66%) favor NATO providing such assistance. 

 

IMPROVING TRANSATLANTIC TIES
The Obama presidency has been a boon for transatlantic relations. In 2009, the proportion of the population that believes transatlantic ties improved over the past year has doubled in the European Union (to 41%) and tripled in the United States (to 31%) from 2008. There is less of a sense of improvement in Central and Eastern Europe (25%), however. In the United States, attitudes divide along partisan lines. Fewer Republicans (14%) and Independents (22%) than Democrats (39%) believe that the U.S.-European relationship has improved over the last year.

 

NO UNDERMINING OF U.S. ECONOMIC LEADERSHIP
The economy is a main concern on both sides of the Atlantic. Europeans look to Washington for help, in part because of Obama’s popularity. A plurality of both Americans (29%) and Europeans (31%) believe that managing international economic problems should be the top priority for the American president and European leaders, trumping concerns over international terrorism, climate change, or the Middle East. And more than half of respondents in the European Union (53%) think strong U.S. leadership on world economic affairs is desirable in addressing that priority. Four-in-five Europeans (79%), but barely half of Americans (54%), approve of Obama’s handling of international economic affairs in his first few months in office.

 

LOOK OUT FOR ME
Americans (69%) strongly agree that their government should focus on solving domestic economic problems, as do a majority of Europeans (55%). Fully 70% of Americans are in favor of “Buy American,” but only 54% of the French support a “Buy French” policy. Such national preference has particular backing in Central and Eastern Europe, where 80% of those surveyed support it. Notably, Republicans (81%) in the United States are more supportive of “Buy American” than are Democrats (68%) or Independents (65%). Democrats (83%) in the United States are actually more supportive of open markets than are Republicans (77%) and Independents (77%). Only about one-in-six Americans and Europeans support closing markets, the traditional definition of protectionism.

 

For the full report and top-line data, see www.transatlantictrends.org

 

SUPPORTING ORGANIZATIONS
Transatlantic Trends is a project of the German Marshall Fund of the United States (www.gmfus.org) and the Compagnia di San Paolo (www.compagnia.torino.it) with additional support from Fundação Luso-Americana (www.flad.pt), Fundación BBVA (www.fbbva.es), and the Tipping Point Foundation.

 

METHODOLOGY

TNS Opinion conducted the survey and collected the data from the United States and 12 European countries: Germany, France, Great Britain, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Portugal, Slovakia, Spain, Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria.  Interviews were conducted by telephone using CATI (Computer Assisted Telephone Interviews) in all countries except Poland, Slovakia, Turkey, Bulgaria, and Romania (where lower telephone penetration necessitates face-to-face interviews), between June 9 and July 1, 2009. In each country, a random sample of approximately 1,000 men and women, 18 years of age and older were interviewed.  The margin of error is plus/minus 3 percentage points.