It is the first visit from a French President to Warsaw in six years, and the relationship between the two countries is still tense. In December, Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Jacek Czaputowicz said that France was the “sick man of Europe.” The two countries are in disagreement over a multitude of things, including Russia, NATO, and the European Directive on posted workers. However, despite their rocky relations, the two countries need each other.

With Brexit, Poland loses a strong ally within the EU, the strongest economy outside of the Eurozone, and an Atlantic voice skeptical toward Russia. France loses an important geopolitical and military partner. Another evolving factor is the very limited answers from Germany on Emmanuel Macron’s propositions on Europe, which pushes Paris to look for other allies. Meanwhile, the Polish relationship with Berlin is not at its best, and Donald Trump’s unpredictability pushes Poland closer to the Europeans, even if the U.S. is still considered the principal security guarantor.