What if the European Union will prove unable to guarantee European security? At a time when America's physical presence in Europe can no longer make up for the uncertainty created by its mental absence, this question is crucial. To believe that security and defense could be made subject to the EU's community method is to ignore the fundamental nature of high politics. Nato counts for very little without the US, and the Europeans alone are unable to guarantee the security order on which they rely. With Nato's value put in question by US President Donald Trump's strategic malpractice and disregard for alliances, a frantic debate has sprung up among Europeans about who will keep them safe and free if America remains Awol. For many European countries, albeit not all of them, the answer is, almost by default, the EU. This does not come as a surprise. After Nato, the EU is the second pillar of Pax Americana in Europe.

The EU itself nurtures the hope that it might be able to step in should Nato crumble. It created fresh structures under acronyms such as Pesco, Card, and EFP to complement existing programs. Its military staff is busy producing EU doctrine and the debate about liberalized defense markets is as old as the single market itself. Juicy talk about "strategic autonomy", a European army, and "European sovereignty" is now the new normal in big ceremonial speeches about the EU. One could get away with thinking Europe has finally woken up strategically.