North African Stability Powers Europe’s Energy Transition

The dispute over the Western Sahara, despite being one of North Africa’s most protracted conflicts, has long been perceived as an issue with little bearing on Europe’s core interests. This view, however, has become dangerously outdated. The region, and especially Morocco, is emerging as a key partner in Europe’s ongoing and accelerated green energy transition whose aims include reducing the continent’s dependence on Russian hydrocarbons. But ongoing challenges to Rabat’s sovereignty over the Western Sahara, which the United States recognized in 2020, pose serious risks to this transition. This has far-reaching implications for NATO’s southern security and the EU’s energy resilience.

Recent developments, including statements by UK Foreign Secretary David Lammy that reflect London’s support of Morocco’s autonomy plan for the territory, show that the some policy circles no longer see the issue as a peripheral concern. This development is propitious. The Polisario Front, which supports independence for Western Sahara and has long received military and diplomatic support from Algeria, ended a decades-long armistice by reigniting hostilities in 2020. The result is a lingering threat that regional instability could return, with stakes far higher than those in past decades. The biggest concern is arguably the materiel—including drones and asymmetric warfare capabilities—that Iran has provided the Polisario and the training given to its fighters, some of whom were deployed in Syria to prop up the Assad regime. This adds a new dimension to a hybrid threat that may arise on Europe’s energy frontier.

Morocco lies just south of the Strait of Gibraltar, a chokepoint for European trade, data cables, and energy flows. The country, a strategic NATO partner, plays a critical role in safeguarding these routes and hosting key joint military exercises, such as “African Lion”. As a leading African producer of renewable energy, particularly solar and wind, Morocco is also a key player in Europe’s ambitions to diversify its energy mix. It has the potential to export clean energy in significant quantities to the continent through undersea cables and green hydrogen partnerships. But Polisario opposition to Morocco’s autonomy plan for Western Sahara threatens to derail economic ambitions at a time when the EU seeks strategic autonomy in energy and technology.

A destabilized neighborhood on Europe’s southern flank could imperil infrastructure projects critical to the EU Green Deal and initiatives such as the Global Gateway. It could also endanger efforts by individual member states to pursue their own strategic energy cooperation projects, such as those outlined in Italy’s Mattei Plan, or broader projects, such as trans-Mediterranean energy corridors, digital connectivity, and rare-earth supply chains. With actors such as Iran and Russia continuing to exploit ambiguity over Western Sahara and support the Polisario Front, the risk of delaying or sabotaging Europe's climate and energy goals is real.

Key NATO allies—including the United Kingdom, the United States, Germany, and France —have already approved Morocco’s autonomy plan, and their action represents a growing consensus on a path forward, one that aligns with the EU’s strategic energy interests. Yet divisions within the bloc and ongoing legal disputes, including a European Court of Justice ruling undermining Brussels’ trade agreements with Morocco, create legal and political uncertainty that hinders long-term energy investment and weaken Brussels’ influence in its southern neighbourhood.

Persistent ambiguity over Western Sahara’s status also enables radicalization across the Sahel, where jihadist groups continue to exploit ungoverned spaces and porous borders. NATO is supporting counterterrorism operations and capacity building in the region, but these efforts will be less effective without a resolution of the conflict, which could leave Morocco’s southern frontier a magnet for hybrid warfare tactics ranging from misinformation campaigns to sabotage operations against energy and digital infrastructure. This underscores the need to address unresolved tensions that, as NATO’s recent meetings with its Mediterranean Dialogue and Istanbul Cooperation Initiative partners confirmed, link instability in the Sahel to Euro-Atlantic security.

The Western Sahara is not an isolated conflict. It is a frontline in Europe’s energy future and in NATO’s ability to adapt to evolving hybrid threats. It is where climate policy meets geopolitics, where trade meets territorial disputes, and where the credibility of Europe’s strategic autonomy is tested. NATO and the EU must step up their roles in North Africa if their energy and security interests, and the region’s stability, are to be secured.

Maurizio Geri's research has received funding from the EU’s Horizon 2020 program under the Marie Skłodowska-Curie grant agreement No. 101105349. Views and opinions expressed are, however, those of the author only and do not necessarily reflect those of the EU, the Research Executive Agency, or GMF. Neither the EU nor the granting authority nor GMF can be held responsible for them.