Musk Aims to Break the Two-Party US System

For years, Americans have complained about the iron grip the two major parties have on the nation’s politics. They have sent a clear signal that they want more choices—perhaps a system more closely resembling European multi-party democracies.

Now, an unlikely crusader against America’s two-party duopoly—billionaire Elon Musk—promises to take a step toward achieving this goal by launching a new “America Party”.

It is difficult to know how seriously to take the mercurial Musk. Does he really want to get into the expensive and messy business of creating a new political party or is this just a gambit to provoke his former friend, President Donald Trump?

If Musk follows through on this effort, he will confront formidable obstacles, not least of which is a well-documented history of the futility of third parties and independent candidates in the United States. Recall that just last year, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. made an independent bid for the presidency. His campaign started strong (due mostly to his broad name recognition), but subsequently hemorrhaged support. RFK, Jr. ended up endorsing Trump and joining his cabinet as secretary for Health and Human Services.

The most successful third-party presidential effort in recent decades was billionaire H. Ross Perot’s campaign in 1992. Perot was defeated by Bill Clinton, but he won nearly 19% of the vote. Since then, third-party candidates mostly have played the role of spoilers. In 2000, for instance, Ralph Nader won only about 3% of the vote nationally but was widely viewed as costing Democrat Al Gore the election by tipping the state of Florida to George W. Bush.

With his new party, Musk is not aiming for the White House, at least not yet. He is not eligible to become president in any case, since he was born in South Africa (the US constitution states that the president must be a “natural-born citizen”).

Perhaps wisely, he says he is focusing his efforts on a handful of seats in the upcoming 2026 midterms: “2 or 3 Senate seats and 8 to 10 House districts”.

Both the House and the Senate will be in play next year, so in theory Musk could influence the outcome. Republicans currently hold a narrow, eight-seat House majority, which is expected to tighten further after upcoming special elections to fill vacancies in Democratic seats. The GOP’s prospects for maintaining control of the Senate, where it effectively holds a four-seat majority, are more favorable.

What would be the platform for Musk’s new party? While he has yet to spell this out in detail, it is clear that Musk is deeply concerned by the nation’s ballooning debt. Indeed, Musk’s primary complaint about the GOP’s “big, beautiful” budget bill was that it increased the deficit. At one point he described it as the “DEBT SLAVERY bill”.

Americans are not happy about the nation’s rising indebtedness. But polling finds that the debt ranks far behind inflation among the public’s top economic issues. Unless and until the debt begins to materially affect people’s finances—perhaps in the form of substantially higher interest rates—it will remain a secondary concern. It is no accident that both parties have been reluctant to rein in spending on the biggest long-term driver of the debt, the nation’s retirement programs.

In terms of his overall philosophy, Musk probably comes closest to libertarianism, which advocates for limited government in both the economic and social realms. Several studies over the years have shown that this has limited appeal: Several years ago, the Pew Research Center conducted a study to determine the proportion of Americans who hold this collection of views by looking at the shares who hold liberal attitudes on social issues (such as same-sex marriage) and conservative views on economic issues and business. A rough estimate suggested that no more than 5% fit into this category, which is hardly a base for a new party.

It is true that, at a time of broad public dissatisfaction with the political system, more and more Americans are choosing to eschew traditional party labels. Last year, 43% of Americans described themselves as political independents, which was tied for the highest share ever in Gallup polling. Far fewer identified as Republicans or Democrats (27% each).

This suggests that a sizable number of people might be amenable to the offerings of a new political party. However, the vast majority of self-identified independents are INOs (independents in name only). This means that they share the views of the Republican or Democratic parties and overwhelmingly vote for the candidates from those parties.

Musk has two main advantages as he contemplates the formidable challenge of taking on the major parties. The first, of course, is his enormous wealth. Musk donated more than $250 million to Trump and GOP-affiliated groups in 2024, far more than any other individual donor. Even if he spends far less than that on the 2026 midterms, he still could have a major influence.

Perhaps equally important, there is pent-up demand for sweeping change in American politics. Younger Americans, in particular, are broadly dissatisfied with the status quo. Over the past decade, there have been changes, but they have unfolded within the structure of the two-party system, most notably with Donald Trump’s takeover of the Republican Party. As Americans deal with disruptions in so many other parts of their lives—from technology to communications and the economy—it is not that difficult to imagine changes eventually upending the two-party system as well.