Japan Also Turns Right

Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) suffered a humiliating defeat in the July 20 vote for the upper house of the Diet. The setback follows the fiasco of the lower house election last October, when Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba’s ruling coalition lost its majority there. The LDP has dominated the Japanese political landscape since the mid-1950s, when the party was founded, and still remains the largest group in both chambers of the Diet. In recent years, however, scandals and infighting have rocked the LDP, and the party has not been able to reenergize voters. Its efforts to revamp its image for this election were not enough, and the party now lacks a majority in the upper house, too, for the first time since 1955.

The historic defeat and the astonishing rise of new populist parties mark the beginning of a new era for Japanese politics, one in which the LDP cannot rest on its laurels any longer. Among the emerging parties, the center-right Democratic Party for the People (DPFP) again significantly boosted the number of its parliamentary seats, following a fourfold increase in October’s election. DPFP leader Yuichiro Tamaki used online platforms extensively during his campaign and successfully attracted more younger and working-age citizens. His message was focused on boosting their take-home pay, and he personally traveled across the country while promoting his political platform on social media.

The other new party to watch closely is Sanseitō, which won over a significant number of conservative voters who have felt frustrated with the LDP. Sanseitō won 14 seats, emerging a major winner in the race. Its success echoes the recent European trend that saw the rise of far-right, anti-immigrant, anti-establishment parties in democracies such as Germany, France, Austria, the United Kingdom, and Italy. With a slogan (“Japanese First”) that is clearly inspired by US President Donald Trump’s “America First” vision, Sanseitō originated in 2020 from a conservative YouTube channel. It promotes conspiracy theories and revisionist views of history. These latest election results demonstrate that Japan is not insulated from the recent, internationally widespread political shift to the right.

Ishiba says that he will stay on as prime minister, but the pressure is mounting for him to step down. History shows that prime ministers who lose a majority in an upper house election resign within two months. The result, therefore, bodes ill for Ishiba, who stated at a post-election press conference his intent to focus on trade negotiations with the United States. The defeat in the upper house, however, will inevitably push the Japanese government to prioritize domestic affairs, as all parties struggle to work together to advance policies. While adjusting to these new political dynamics, the LDP will also need to acknowledge its resounding defeat by undergoing a makeover and by adopting a new messaging strategy that emphasizes its responsiveness to voters’ needs. The catch-22 is that replacing Ishiba now may bring more instability and weaken Japan’s position in the trade negotiations with Washington.

The next few weeks will reveal the direction of Japanese politics, but one consequence of the election is clear: Japan is no longer shielded from the global shift toward political polarization that has affected many of the world’s other democracies.