Build, Buy, or Blend?

European defense leaders are confronting a historic moment of change in their security environment. In the past, Europe has been deeply dependent on the United States for maintaining existing weaponry and acquiring new defense systems. European leaders now grapple with growing uncertainty over US commitment to NATO and an aggressive Russian threat. These dual challenges compel European leaders to reassess their defense strategies and their need for strategic autonomy.

To navigate this complex security landscape, European defense leaders would benefit from looking to a Silicon Valley strategic decision-making framework for competitive, fast-evolving tech industries. In dynamic, high-stakes environments, tech firm leaders choose to build proprietary solutions (for example, Apple’s M-series chips for performance control), buy established technologies (for example, Google’s use of Qualcomm chips for its phones), or blend external innovations with internal capabilities for strategic advantage (for example, Microsoft’s integration of OpenAI into Azure).

This Build-Buy-Blend framework offers three distinct approaches for balancing innovation, speed, and autonomy in defense modernization. It frames strategic choices as adaptable bets, continuously reassessed as technology, competition, and global events rapidly evolve.

Applying the Framework to European Defense

What do these options mean for European defense leaders in practice?

Build: Europe could develop its own defense tech ecosystem by funding next-generation companies such as Helsing and scaling innovation, streamlining procurement paths for startups, and restructuring incentives to drive internal research and development and attract private capital. This approach would require new venture-style funding mechanisms, faster procurement cycles, and a cultural shift to embrace emerging technologies. However, this approach could take at least a decade of sustained effort according to private sector experts at Goldman Sachs and McKinsey. Defense tech startups typically need 10–15 years to reach maturity.

Pursuing a build strategy would boost homegrown research and development talent, product integrity, supply chain reliability, and self-reliance and would reduce vulnerability to external disruptions or supply-chain weaponization.

Buy: Europe could continue to purchase US defense products and systems such as Patriot missiles, F-35s jets, Starlink, and US-made tanks. This approach ensures immediate capabilities, but deepens Europe’s long-term dependency on the United States, exposing Europe to shifts in American policy.

Pursuing a buy strategy would align with the post–World War II global trade system, but risks dependency, leaving Europe susceptible to US policy changes and supply-chain vulnerabilities.

Blend: Europe could integrate external innovations from the United States and like-minded partners globally while retaining control over critical technologies. Leaders could consider leveraging vehicles such as the NATO Innovation Fund to channel investments into dual-use startups and fast-track commercial technology into European defense programs.

Pursuing a blend strategy would balance speed and autonomy, enabling Europe to leverage global innovation while safeguarding strategic priorities.

Current Trends and Opportunities

Europe has historically leaned on the buy model, relying on US security guarantees and defense systems. However, shifting US policy priorities make this approach increasingly untenable. Recent blend initiatives, such as South Korea’s Hanwha Aerospace 2024 co-production agreement with Poland, demonstrate scalable models for collaborative weapons production. The war in Ukraine further highlights blend’s potential, with AI and drone startups delivering rapid, cost-effective military solutions.

While France and Germany are major exporters of existing defense technologies, Europe lags in developing emerging technologies domestically. Compared to the United States, Europe has an undercapitalized venture capital ecosystem and a less robust founder community, making the commercializing and scaling up of emerging technologies difficult. Yet, companies such as Helsing (Germany) and Mistral (France) signal that a build strategy may be viable in the longer term, provided they secure sufficient capital, government contracts, and faster procurement pathways.