France’s Government Collapses Again

Tug Of War 

France is caught between its short-term politics and long-term ambitions. 

By Martin Quencez 

France’s fifth prime minister since 2022 has stepped down after less than a year in office. François Bayrou resoundingly lost a no-confidence vote in the National Assembly, with nearly two-thirds of legislators present voting to bring down his government. The budget was the main cause of the downfall, deepening concerns about France’s ability to address its growing debt. Bayrou’s predecessor faced the same fate over the same issue only last December. 

President Emmanuel Macron quickly appointed Sébastien Lecornu as the next prime minister. But with no clear majority in parliament for any grouping, coalition negotiations will be complex. Officially, party leaders are urged to make compromises and demonstrate responsibility in the face of serious social and economic challenges. In reality, electoral calculations ahead of a 2027 presidential election will drive every move in the forthcoming talks. 

Several strategies are already visible. The far-right Rassemblement National (National Rally) is reluctant to assume national responsibility, convinced that any governing party will pay a heavy political price at the next election. On the left, La France Insoumise (France Unbound) focuses on forcing Macron’s resignation to trigger an early presidential election. Both parties see little incentive to join a coalition and believe that prolonged instability will ultimately serve their electoral interests. The Socialist Party remains divided. It is torn between, on one hand, a willingness to compromise with the center and right to resolve the deadlock and, on the other, the risk of alienating left-wing voters who oppose further spending cuts. 

Whatever the outcome, French politics is likely to remain dominated by inward-looking calculations. Macron will be able to pursue symbolic initiatives abroad, such as the recognition of the state of Palestine, but France’s international influence cannot be separated from the fragility of its domestic political and economic situation. 

Beyond all the political maneuvering, a deeper issue remains unresolved. The French socioeconomic model has proved difficult to reform as the cost of paying off the public debt rises, soon to exceed the national education budget. This burden severely limits the country’s fiscal room for maneuver, especially when France has pledged major investments, particularly in defense. 

The country still benefits from substantial industrial and energy assets. These, however, create a political temptation. Future governments may be willing to sell strategic holdings to replenish the state’s budget, even if such short-term fixes would go against the broader ambition of restoring national sovereignty over critical industries. 

This domestic fragility is especially troubling as it affects France’s international influence. Ironically, Paris continues to struggle to assume regional leadership just as concepts rooted in French strategic thinking, such as European strategic autonomy, have gained traction across the continent. 

A Less Influential France 

The fall of the Bayrou government was hardly a surprise. Least of all in Brussels. 

By Georgina Wright 

France’s European partners have grown used to its protracted political crisis. Each new government in Paris brings a different cast of ministers, who must quickly learn how to yield influence and power in Brussels. Smaller EU member states, tired of the constant change, increasingly see Germany as the more reliable power for leadership and coalition building. A rare exception is on the issue of Ukraine, on which President Emmanuel Macron has shown leadership, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer. But in nearly every other policy area, France’s European influence is eroding. That worries its allies. 

Paradoxically, the EU has never felt more French. The agenda in Brussels is filled with priorities long championed by Paris: stronger defense cooperation, ambitious industrial policies, and protecting the single market against foreign coercion and interference. Under Macron’s pro-European leadership, France has left a deep imprint on the bloc’s direction. 

Yet Paris struggles to match ambition with credibility. The EU faces crucial choices—not just on which policies to pursue, but how to fund them. France has urged the EU to consider more joint borrowing, but Paris, with one of the highest debt burdens among member states, is hardly a convincing messenger. Few countries are willing to pool financial risk with a partner unable to get its spending under control. 

The same contradiction applies to trade. France argues that Europe must reduce dependence on the United States and China, yet it routinely blocks the very trade deals that could strengthen that independence. It remains one of the fiercest opponents of the Mercosur agreement with Latin America and has still not fully ratified a 2017 deal with Canada. Not only do these positions annoy its European counterparts, they also undercut France’s own calls for European autonomy. 

With so much domestic instability, France is paying less attention to the EU, leaving Germany to take an even greater lead in shaping many of the bloc’s negotiations. France now often joins only in the final stages of talks instead of steering debates from the outset. 

This is not good news for Europe. The EU functions best when France and Germany work in tandem. They do not always agree, but their divergence gives smaller member states space to rally behind one or the other. A healthy Franco-German balance strengthens Europe and France itself. A weakened France, by contrast, threatens to delay European progress. Breaking the cycle may require fresh elections, though even that carries risk. With the far-right Rassemblement National leading in the polls, many fear that France’s next chapter could leave Europe even more unsettled. 

Macron’s Top European Security Challenge: Trust 

If the French president wants to continue to lead, he needs to reassure partners about domestic developments. 

By Gesine Weber 

French President Emmanuel Macron’s need to form yet another new government prompts questions about Paris’ ability to retain leadership of European security. This new challenge arises just after he recently emerged, with British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, as a co-leader of the so-called Coalition of the Willing. The two arguably played a pivotal role in shaping the European commitment to potential security guarantees for Ukraine after a ceasefire, particularly through the idea for the deployment of a “reassurance force” comprised primarily of French and British forces.  

Domestic developments have little impact on Macron’s margin of maneuver in security and defense policy. As a domain reserved (“domaine reservé”) for the president, he can make most decisions in these areas, especially concerning France’s diplomatic posture or broader strategy, regardless of the prime minister or the composition of the government. In the short term, Macron’s approach to the war on Ukraine or the Coalition of the Willing is unlikely to change. Paris is also unlikely to cut military spending despite approaching and contentious budget debates that will be the first stress test for the next prime minister.  

But at this point, Macron will need to solidify European partners’ trust in him if he is to bolster his profile as a leader on the regional stage. His need to name a fourth prime minister in less than two years increases uncertainty about French reliability, a key factor in sensitive discussions about the future of European security, such as those on nuclear deterrence and mutual defense. France’s domestic instability only heightens concerns as it may herald a potentially disruptive presidential election in 2027 that could end with a victory for the far-right.  

In the meantime, it may be increasing skepticism among Paris’ partners that limits Macron’s ability to act on European security and defense despite the competencies given to him by the French constitution. If he wants to lead in these areas and preserve his political legacy as France’s pro-European president, Macron must lay out a reassuring domestic trajectory, rather than only a vision for Europe, for his country’s partners.