The Geopolitics of the Second Trump Administration
The following is an extract from an article written by GMF Risk and Strategy Program Coordinator Alix Frangeul-Alves and Managing Director Martin Quencez originally published by the French Institute of International Relations (Ifri) in Politique étrangère, Vol. 90, No. 3, Fall 2025 (© Ifri, 2025). Frangeul-Alves translated the text from the original French.
Donald Trump’s foreign policy has continuously sparked debate. Since the 2016 presidential campaign, numerous analyses sought to reveal the consistency of the Republican candidate’s geopolitical vision. The assessment of his first term, marked by strategic rivalry with China, pressure on European allies, and the dismantling of Barack Obama’s legacy, confirmed the existence of strong ideological foundations but also purely opportunistic and instinctive, if not chaotic, tendencies.
Six months after the beginning of the second term, this tension remains at the heart of the American debate. In January 2025, Trump returned to the White House in a severely deteriorated geopolitical context: During the campaign, he committed to ending the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, and US power faces new challenges. Since then, the second Trump administration does not appear as a mere continuation of the period between 2017 and 2021. While the principles of “America First” still shape major strategic objectives, their implementation evolves with the domestic and international political situation. Drawing on the experience of the first term, the president wishes to move faster and further in realizing his geopolitical vision.
The second term is constructed under the mark of revanchism. The president’s political trajectory since his 2020 defeat feeds his desire to erase the legacy of his predecessors. More than ever, the Trump presidency is committed to a policy of deconstructing US foreign policy as it has been implemented since 1991, or even 1945.
The first months of 2025 reveal another revolution. Moving away from the zero-sum competition that defined the first term, Trump seems to accommodate a division of the world into spheres of influence. The priority given to the Western Hemisphere, from Greenland to Panama through Canada, illustrates this.
In its implementation, Trump’s foreign policy responds to domestic political considerations. Like any other president, he must manage a coalition made up of diverse ideological currents and strive to maintain control over a fragile majority. To this balancing effort are added decisions based on personal or family interest, further reinforcing the impression of unpredictability.