A Big Win For Now

One year after defeat and disappointment, Democrats finally have reason to celebrate. They made an impressive sweep of the US off-year elections, and party leaders expect the momentum from these victories to carry into the 2026 midterms that will determine control of Congress during the final two years of the second Trump administration.

The results, however, also underscore the deep ideological and generational fissures that Democrats face as they try to craft a coherent, unified message for next year’s crucial vote.

The Democrats’ wins included the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, both by a surprisingly wide margin. California voters, responding to Republican gerrymandering elsewhere, easily passed a ballot initiative that could create several more Democratic-leaning congressional districts in the most populous US state. And, in arguably the most closely watched race in the United States and abroad, 34-year-old state assemblyman Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, outpaced two opponents to become New York City’s mayor-elect.

In broad terms, a surge of opposition to President Donald Trump and his policies, and voters’ frustration with inflation and the cost of living, propelled the Democratic victories. In Virginia and New Jersey, according to network exit polls, more than twice as many voters said their votes were an expression of opposition to, rather than support of, Trump.

Republicans correctly noted that this year’s major contests were fought on Democratic turf. The margins of victory for Democrats were nonetheless striking and, reflecting the scope of the party’s successes, they even managed to capture two Republican-held state senate seats in Mississippi, a state Trump won by more than 20 percentage points in 2024.

For the midterms, there are several historical trends working to the Democrats’ advantage. The party of the president has lost seats in the House of Representatives in 20 of the last 22 such elections. And the lower a president’s job approval—Trump’s job rating is hovering between a bleak 40% and 45%—the more likely that the commander-in-chief’s party will lose seats in Congress.

Moreover, Democrats are more motivated to vote than Republicans. A CNN national poll conducted shortly before the elections found that 67% of Democratic voters are extremely motivated to vote in next year’s midterms. Only 46% of Republicans said that they were.

Which Way To Turn?

The Democrats’ disastrous defeat in 2024 unleashed a vigorous internal debate over the party’s direction, and the push and pull between a more moderate or progressive direction will continue. The elections just concluded will do nothing to bridge the ideological divide. They may, in fact, widen it.

New York City Mayor-elect Zohran Mamdani’s so-called affordability agenda is premised on a dramatic expansion of government services, including plans for universal free child care and free bus service. He also has been an outspoken advocate for Palestinian rights and a harsh critic of Israel’s war in Gaza. Those stances could not be more different from those of the more cautious two Democratic gubernatorial victors, Abigail Spanberger in Virginia and Mikie Sherrill in New Jersey. And the Democrats’ congressional leaders, Sen. Chuck Schumer and Rep. Hakeem Jeffries, both from New York, kept Mamdani at arm’s length during the campaign. Now they must find a modus vivendi with him.

Republicans, acutely aware of what a sagging economy and low Trump job approval rate mean for their party’s prospects, are already seizing on Mamdani’s ascension to paint the Democrats as extremists. Trump has said Mamdani’s election means Americans will have the choice “between communism and common sense”.

Democrats counter that their party includes an ideologically diverse array of candidates and elected officials, including Spanberger and Sherrill. In reality, however, the party is likely to coalesce around the one thing that unites all Democrats—opposition to Trump.

A House Divided

Republicans currently hold a 219-213 edge in the House of Representatives, with three seats vacant. The narrow majority has led them to adopt an unprecedented strategy to expand their seats through off-schedule congressional redistricting that will be in effect for the midterms. Democrats have tried to counter this effort by doing the same in states they control, as in California. Most analysts think the ploy will give Republicans a modest advantage.

They appear to have a more secure future in the Senate, with a current 53-47 seat majority. To change that at the midterms, Democrats will need to hold all their seats and flip four held by Republicans. That seems a formidable challenge at the moment.

What would it mean for the Democrats to have a majority in the House of Representatives? They would be able to determine the legislative agenda and, equally important, hold oversight hearings on the Trump administration’s actions and policies. For a president who has dominated American politics for more than a decade, that would mean significantly diminished power and influence in his final two years.