Bosnia’s Democratic Test: Republika Srpska’s Election Provides a Rare Opportunity

Early elections in Republika Srpska, one of the political entities making up Bosnia and Herzegovina, will serve as a test of the country’s institutional resilience. The November 23 vote follows the Court of Bosnia and Herzegovina’s verdict in criminal proceedings against Bosnian Serb leader Milorad Dodik, effectively stripping him of his mandate as this administrative unit’s president. The ruling marked an unexpected institutional check on one of the country’s most dominant political figures—something that the opposition had hoped for. Dodik's removal from the political arena opens the door to significant changes. After initial announcements of a boycott, four parties and two independent candidates have now confirmed their participation. The elections are both an anomaly and a crucial political moment: Since 2006, Dodik’s Alliance of Independent Social Democrats (SNSD) has ruled the entity without interruption, shaping Republika Srpska’s political culture around his personalized leadership. In this context, the court verdict against an openly antagonistic, pro-Russian, and anti-democratic leader represents a potential opening for political transformation.

The presidency of Republika Srpska carries significant symbolic and political weight, serving as a platform for consolidating power and influence across Bosnia and Herzegovina’s complex political system. For opposition parties, long sidelined from the administrative unit’s executive and president's office, and vocal about irregularities in the 2022 presidential election, the upcoming elections present a long-awaited opportunity to improve their position in the political mainstream. Given attempts to stall and interfere with the process, the test for the institutions lies in how and when the elections will take place. Dodik has filed appeals against the verdict, and his allies have used legal and procedural tools to delay the vote. These efforts underscore how entrenched actors seek to obstruct institutional processes, and it remains to be seen how well the system functions in the face of such pressure. What happens in Republika Srpska will inevitably shape political dynamics at the national level. Moreover, a change in its leadership would, however temporarily, disrupt the regional networks Dodik cultivated with leaders such as Serbia’s Aleksandar Vučić, Hungary’s Viktor Orbán, Slovakia’s Robert Fico, and Russia’s Vladimir Putin, potentially creating space for a new political alignment. For Bosnia and Herzegovina, a country where politics often unfold through inertia rather than change, these early elections may prove to be the most consequential political event in over a decade—and a rare opportunity for institutional reaffirmation, political realignment, and a modest but meaningful victory for democracy.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.