Japan’s Takaichi Stands Firm on Taiwan

There are still no signs of a diplomatic breakthrough between Tokyo and Beijing following Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s November statement on Japan’s potential role in a Taiwan contingency.

During a meeting of the budget committee in the lower house of Japan’s Diet on November 7, Takaichi said that if China conducted a naval blockade of Taiwan, it would constitute a “survival-threatening situation”, which could prompt Japan to exercise the right of collective self-defense. The content of her remarks was neither new nor surprising: Takaichi has long been a steadfast supporter of Taiwan, and her characterization of a Taiwan crisis as a “threat to Japan’s survival” closely mirrors the stance of her late mentor, Shinzo Abe. Despite China’s strong response, Takaichi has not walked back her comments. Her party’s Vice President Taro Aso recently reiterated his support, noting that she had “merely stated Japan’s position in a concrete manner.”

Still, Takaichi may not have fully anticipated the costs of responding so specifically to the opposition’s scenario-based question during last month’s Diet session. Beijing’s reaction has been not only sharply critical but also economically punitive, with China immediately curtailing trade and tourism to Japan.

Takaichi assumed office at a particularly delicate moment. Under President Donald Trump, the United States has retreated from its traditional internationalist posture, injecting uncertainty into alliances and partnerships. At home, Takaichi’s Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) lost its majority in both houses of the Diet in this year’s elections, weakening the party’s overall standing. Meanwhile, the broader regional security environment is becoming increasingly complex and volatile.

It is still too early to assess how this dispute will shape Takaichi’s tenure or legacy. Yet, if her intent on November 7 was to energize her base, she has succeeded. What initially appeared to be a serious early misstep has not dented her domestic standing: Nearly a month later, her approval rating remains exceptionally high. As of December 1, her support stood at 75%, essentially unchanged since she took office in October. By contrast, her predecessor Shigeru Ishiba never approached such levels; two months into his premiership, his approval rating had not even reached 30%.

However, even as Takaichi remains strong at home, the contradictory reporting surrounding her recent phone call with President Trump suggests that Beijing may be using the episode to test US commitment in the Indo-Pacific—and drive a wedge into the US-Japan alliance.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.