A Failed Chinese Invasion of Taiwan Would Be Disastrous for Xi Jinping

Almost every week, reports surface about a new wargame simulating a Chinese attack against Taiwan. Those exercises, carried out by academics, think tanks, and governments, are often meant to test how U.S. and allied forces would respond, stressing them to the limit. As a result, the scenarios tend to focus on the challenges that Washington, Taipei, and others would face in the first days or weeks of a conflict.

However, they seldom examine in detail what would happen if a Chinese military operation against Taiwan were to fail. In a new study published by the German Marshall Fund of the United States, we investigate the consequences of a failed Chinese military operation against Taiwan and find that the costs to China would be massive. China would face challenges across four different, but interrelated, areas: its economy, its military capabilities, its social stability, and international costs.

We asked authors to consider two scenarios imaginable in the next five years. In the first scenario, a minor skirmish escalated into a multiweek maritime blockade of Taiwan by China. Although several dozen members of the Chinese and Taiwanese military were killed, U.S. intervention eventually forced China to de-escalate. In the second scenario, a conflict escalated into a full-fledged invasion, with Chinese strikes on not only Taiwan but also U.S. forces in Japan and Guam. After several months of heavy fighting, Chinese forces were degraded and eventually withdrew after suffering many tens of thousands of casualties.

The views expressed herein are those solely of the author(s). GMF as an institution does not take positions.